[Code S] Ro32 Final Day Preview/Group G Recap (S4)

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Life Goes On
– ST_Life advances as the only undefeated player in seven Code S groups.

ST_Life kept his royal road dreams alive in Code S, joining the less-expected royal road candidate coL.Heart in the Ro16. On his way, he dispatched of LG-IM_NesTea and EG.JYPRC in a full showcase of his skills – showing his ZvZ prowess against Nestea while being both creative and resilient against JYP.

Coming into the group with absurd ZvZ stats that are bound to regress to the mean, Life showed that he was simply, fundamentally good at the match-up in his initial series against Nestea. Using a style that bore resemblance to DongRaeGu vs. Effort in WCS Korea, he took two games where he won on the strength of superior mechanics. In the first game he showed superior macro, micro and decision making in a ling-bane dogfight, while in the second game, he showed that he had wonderful game sense by playing mutas into roach-infestor perfectly.

In the winners match against JYP, Life faced a tough challenge in a strong PvZ player. In the first game on Ohana, he refused to fall to the customary two base all-in, opting for a rare two-base roach-ling-infestor opener instead. JYP seemed thrown off by these tactics, and ended up falling to relentless attacks from Life. In the next game, Life had an opportunity to become the only 4 - 0 group winner in the Ro32, and he grasped that honor with panache. In almost miraculous fashion, he was able to hold off a six gate attack after his first hatchery had died to a cannon rush. Somehow, Life had just enough production to deflect JYP’s near all-in, pulling drones setting up flanks in a prolonged defense until he finally stabilized. Through the midgame, Life continuously pressured with nydus networks, overlord drops and infestor harass, while JYP repaid the favor in turn with constant warp-prism harass. In the end, Life was able to seal his 4-0 record in the group with the typical Zerg late game composition of brood lords and infestors, completely overrunning an opponent he had run ragged.

In a season where the heroes of 2011 seem to be falling left and right, Life is one of the most exciting players rising up to take their places. He is notoriously difficult to prepare for, his style unorthodox and his build order selection diverse. In a time where the ever solid-looking Curious tells the world he has to expand his repertoire in order to stay competitive, Life is an interesting counterpart. In a tournament where preparation is an integral part of a player’s success or demise, I doubt many Code S regulars will relish trying to map out how Life plays. It will be fascinating to see whether Life will decide to tailor his play to his opponents, continue on as Life: unpredictable, brilliant and iconoclastic in pursuit of his royal road.

JYP versus Terran x2 = Advancement
– EG.JYPRC takes second place winning twice in his weakest matchup.

The only other time JYP was in Code S, he lost to a Terran with cheesy tendencies before being knocked out by a Zerg icon. Back in Season 1, those two players were sC and DRG. This season, it looked like his itinerary could look similar indeed, with mTw.SuperNova in the first match and NesTea in the second. However, history would not repeat itself as the EG Protoss was able to take his former weakness – JYPvT – and turn it on its head.

Going up against Supernova, one had to worry for JYP. While seldom looking outclassed in his PvT, his win rate in the 20's meant that he almost always found a way to second guess himself and lose. Supernova had a reputation for making short work of such foes, capable of bringing a variety of two-base all-ins that required a Protoss player's full concentration to stop. Not surprisingly, the mTw player’s first strategy of the day was a tank backed two base all-in. But whereas JYP had fallen to such strategies before, this time would prove different – he bided his time, waited until he had just the right composition, and killed the Terran army to win the game. In the second game, he found himself way behind in a macro game, but through good high templar use, patience, and good battle selection, he was able to turn the game in his favor and win in the end.

After missing out on a chance to reach the Ro16 against Life in his best match-up, JYP's continued existence in Code S would be decided in a rematch with Supernova (who had crushed Nestea in the losers match). He started out shakily, going down in a rather predictable fashion on Antiga. He failed to put pressure on early as Supernova played greedily, then failed to hold his third when the Terran player’s economy kicked in. JYP's primary trick in the game was dark templar harassment, which while effective, ultimately could not stand in the way of SuperNoVa's four-base macro machine.

Despite having won a macro game against SuperNoVa in the previous series, JYP decided that there must be a more convenient way out. Surmising that his opponent would go for a CC first build on Daybreak, JYP really took advantage of the opponent’s greed with a proxy-gate build to quickly even up the score at 1 - 1. That set up an interesting mind-game in the deciding match on Entombed Valley, where SuperNoVa decided that it would be alright to play greedy one more time. Unfortunate for him, JYP had no qualms about punishing greed a second time, using a 6-gate all-in to send SuperNoVa down to Code A.

The outcome of the group was unexpected, not because JYP advanced, but rather because he did it through two PvTs. If he keeps showing this kind of form in the future, his stock is sure to rise. Upon further reflection, one of the deciding factors of JYP moving on to the round of sixteen is that he seemed to have discovered a previously absent sense of self-assurance. His read on Supernova in the last two games of the day showed a player who was confident in his assessments, and had the mental fortitude to go all-in without hesitation. Instead letting himself be played by his opponent, he was the aggressor and the one exploiting identifiable flaws.

The round of sixteen will test JYP further. It is difficult to imagine a Terran player turning down an opportunity to pick him; we could even see the strange match-up of Heart vs. JYP. His PvT is not magically fixed because he came out of this group, but he looks much stronger than before and shouldn't be an automatic pick for any Terran player. Ultimately, JYP will undoubtedly relish the opportunity to shine in Code S. If anything, he has shown dedication to both figuring out his opponents and himself, which will go a long way to propelling him from a player of unquestionable potential into a mainstay in Code S.

The Fallen.
– NesTea and SuperNova, the two most experienced players in Code S, both fall to Code A.

To be blunt, Nestea continued his decline. He again lost to a mechanically more gifted player in ZvZ and failed to make any sort of good impression in ZvT. After losing to Life in his initial match, Nestea looked very poor as he lost 0 - 2 to SuperNoVa as well. One game saw him go for laughably ineffectual drop play against SuperNoVa's mech, while the second game saw his muta-ling-bane play get crushed in all too familiar fashion by an efficient bio army.

It remains to be seen whether Nestea can rise from the ashes. In his current form, it's doubtful that he can make it out of Code A or the Up/Downs. However, his history and character should allow him time to refocus and figure out how to solve his current issues.

Whereas Nestea did not look like Nestea at all, Supernova looked decidedly like Supernova. Unfortunately for him, it was the Supernova who looked slightly disinterested, quite sloppy at times and not all there. He was able to easily win in TvZ, but didn't look like he was 100% in all five games against JYP. He has always been a player that can look amazing against the best but horrible against the worst. While he did not look truly horrible and JYP is definitely not a bad player to lose to, it was one of those days where Supernova failed to play to his ability. With the Nestea Award now hinging on him either making a run in Code A or making it out of what will probably be an insane Up and Down group (including KeSPA players this time around), he will regret a lost opportunity in Group G.

Wacky facts.

1. This is the first time Nestea has finished last (4th) in a Code S group, his previous finishes are 1-3-2-1-2-1-2-1-3-1.
   
2. Supernova has finished third once before, his results are 1-3-4-2-4-1-1-1.
   
3. Nestea is 0-1 in matches in Code A, 0-2 in games.
   
4. Supernova is 8-1 in Code A, 19-5 in games.
   
5. In his five games against Supernova, JYP proxied his fifth pylon in the first three. The fourth game he won before making it and in the fifth game he proxied his fourth.
   
6. Group G was the first group where both players advancing had never made it past the first stage of Code S.
   
7. Life was the first player advancing with a perfect score.
   
8. Life is the only potential royal roader currently in Code S with a perfect match record.
   
9. Nestea may or may not have thought that the GSL was a golf tournament, wanting as low a score as possible. Truly, only an individual such as Nestea would be able to finish his play with zero strokes.

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Group H: MVPDongRaeGu, ST_Bomber, TSL_Polt, FXOGuMiho

MVPDongRaeGu vs. ST_Bomber

These two were in a Code S group all the way back in Code S November of 2011. Back then, it was a time when people still expected both of these players to win titles in the near future. Bomber's hype had started earlier, and when he had swept through Code A to arrive on the scene, while DRG was then entering his second Code S season after building very impressive credentials in international competition and in the GSTL. In a shock to both, neither player was able to advance out of the first round of Code S, falling in upsets to Gumiho and Happy.

Luckily for DongRaeGu, he would return to form right away in December's Blizzard Cup, becoming a part of possibly the greatest Starcraft II final against MMA. Then, just a few months after that, he went on to take his first GSL championship against Genius in 2012's Code S Season One. His sour ending to Code S November was quickly forgotten, and many hailed him as the best player in the world.

Bomber went down a different road. Following his quick exit from the November season, he got beaten down in another upset by Inca and Curious in the first round of the same Code S tournament DongRaeGu would go on to win. That would be the last time we saw Bomber in Code S until now, as he's been wandering aimlessly between Code A and the Up/Down matches, never showing the same skills that made people believe he was going to become a future GSL champion.

Recently, DongRaeGu has been on the worst slide of his career, starting when he got beat by MC in the previous Code S semifinals, losing out on an opportunity to play in the Code S finals in his hometown of Busan. After that, he's racked up loss after big loss. He failed to qualify for WCG Korea when he was stopped by Polt, lost another heartbreaking game to Leenock in the ace match of the GSTL semifinals, and even getting eliminated right off the bat in WCS Korea from the one two punch of Creator (the eventual winner) and Effort from CJ Entus. DRG was at least able to pick up a win against Jangbi in OSL (who was one of the worst players among the 16), but followed that up by losing to the best player KeSPA has to offer SKT T1's By.Rain.

Bomber is slowly going the other way, though his recovery is nowhere as dramatic as DongRaeGu's decline. He got through the Up/Down matches in first place with wins over jjakji, Keen and Mana, but that doesn't mean he is officially 'back' and should be counted on to make his first Ro16 appearance in over a year. But it's a good sign as he comes into a Code S group with three other players who are incredibly strong when on their right day, but not always consistent in their play. With DongRaeGu not having had a right day in months, Bomber now has a legit shot of knocking off DRG and making his slump continue on for a bit longer.

Still, if we've learned anything about Bomber and DRG since they both came into prominence in the middle of 2011, you can never bet on Bomber, and you can never bet against DongRaeGu. You can show the statistics of how bad DRG has been lately, but there is a reason why he's a GSTL and GSL champion, and Bomber is the player known for never living up to his potential. The removal of Atlantis Spaceship and Metropolis is a good sign for all three Terran who will be going up versus DongRaeGu on the night, but with four Zerg having already advanced in the first seven groups, it hasn't been as bad as once thought when looking at the map pool.

Prediction: DRG 2 > 1 Bomber


TSL_Polt vs. FXOGuMiho

Now that we're done speaking of the slumps and inconsistencies of the first two players, you have to admit that those are similar themes for the other two players in the group, Polt and Gumiho. Heading into WCS Korea, there was a strong case for both that they were the 2nd and 3rd best Terran in the world behind Taeja. Polt after the first two rounds of WCS Korea was holding a 25-8 record in the summer, beating big name players like DongRaeGu, Mvp, and Hyun, while also advancing through three straight rounds of Code A to get back into Code S. Then, with a 0 - 2 loss to Seed in the winner's quarterfinals of WCS KR, the wheels started to come off the Polt Express. He then lost to HerO in another 0 - 2, and suffered a disappointing 1-2 loss to Miya that knocked him out of the running for WCS Asia completely. Even in WCG Korea, he had the door shut on him, as he went 1 - 2 against Yonghwa in the Ro16, in games where Polt didn't look like he was at his best.

In Gumiho's case, his stock had never been higher after he came off his all-kill of SlayerS-EG in the GSTL finals. He had as much moment as Polt going into WCS Korea, but similarly, it was where he started to falter. Like Polt, Gumiho fell to Seed in WCS Korea, following that up with a shocking loss to CJ's Effort in his first defeat to a KeSPA player. In the GSL, he was stopped by Squirtle in the final round of Code A, but got his spot in this season's Code S tournament with a decent effort in his Up/Down group, going 2-1 and only losing to Sniper.

Gumiho is a player who has changed a lot in the last year. He has gone from a player that people expected nothing from, to a player that has shown us some of the best games we've seen all year. That means that he can no longer expect to lose in the Ro32 and be given an out. We know he has the skills to go into the quarterfinals and higher, and people are expecting him to get further than the first round.

In terms of TvT, both have shown strong play lately. Gumiho, of course, has his instant classic game against MMA on the first map in the GSTL Finals, barely inching out the Slayers champion and gaining his first win on the road to his all-kill that would include another TvT win over Ryung. Polt recently beat Maru 2-1 in Code A and Mvp 2-1 in WCS Korea, giving him some good momentum in the match-up going into a group with two other strong Terrans.

They are both champions in Korea. Polt with his GSL Super Tournament victory last summer, and Gumiho with his all-kill of Slayers for the GSTL championship with his FXO teammates. Both would be disappointed with an exit before the Ro8, as they have the skills to get as far as the finals if they can play consistently.

Prediction: Polt 2 > 1 Gumiho


Winners Match and Beyond:

It doesn't really matter who advances to play against DRG in the winners or losers match. Gumiho and Polt are both fully capable of beating him in his current state, and even if he plays at his absolute best, he will have a toughh fight on his hand against two of the better TvZ Terrans in the world. DongRaeGu beat Gumiho in a comeback during the GSL semifinals of his championship season back in January, but Gumiho's hectic drop style and relentless aggression was a style that pushed DRG to the brink even when he was at the very top of his game. Against Polt, DongRaeGu has lost his last two series against the TSL captain, 1-2 during MLG Spring Arena and more recently at the WCG Korea, going 0-2 in a one sided stomp. We all know that if DRG can recapture his form of the Blizzard Cup/Code S Season One 2012, that he can get through this group 4-0/4-1 and roll towards another final. But can he get back to that level?

For the three Terrans, just like DRG, it all depends on their form. Polt looked to be in the best condition, having one of the best offline Korean records of the summer, but that was followed up with a 2-8 record in his past ten offline games. Gumiho had his huge GSTL all-kill to help his team win the championship, but he didn't do so hot in WCS Korea, and he only got second place in his Up/Down group. With Bomber, you don't even have to name all the number of times people have picked him to do well, only for him to regress back from championship form to Code B-omber mode.

This is the only group this season where you would not be surprised to see any combination in the standings. Would you be shocked to see the slumping DRG place 4th in the group and Bomber, who is showing signs of life, continue his comeback with a 1st place finish? Would your jaw drop if the opposite happened with DRG destroying everyone and Bomber disappointing again? All four players are amazing when they're at their absolute best, but they all have reasons why they could be the 4th place player in this group at the end of the night.

Predictions:

DongRaeGu > Bomber
Polt > Gumiho
Polt > DongRaeGu
Gumiho > Bomber
DongRaeGu > Gumiho

Polt and DRG advance