Auction OSL - Ro16 Day 6 Preview

DongRaeGu vs MarineKing - Ohana

After a short break, the OSL returns with one of the classic matchups from the first half of 2012. With 32 games between the pair, the most recent of which came in the MLG Winter and Spring seasons, MarineKing and DRG are no strangers to meeting on the big stage. The record is quite close as well, standing overall at 18-14 in favor of DRG, although MKP did get the best of him in two tournament finals. Both have fallen slightly since the early part of 2012, but with a Ro8 OSL spot on the line, we may see yet another exciting match between these two rivals.

DongRaeGu started off the year with a couple of second place finishes at MLG events to MKP, finally taking the crown at Spring Arena. As summer approached, things had never looked better for the always-smiling Zerg player. Then, a string of difficult defeats against worthy opponents left DRG at his lowest point all year – eliminated from GSL and WCS Korea while failing to even stand up as MVP’s team league ace, the role that he became famous in. September hasn’t been too cruel to him, however, so far splitting his OSL games and managing to advance comfortably in Code S. His games versus JangBi and Rain were not quite vintage DRG, as he fell to the latter and took a fairly silly victory over the defending champ.

Similarly, MarineKing begun 2012 looking like the best Terran in the world, with his trademark bio control finally backed by solid macro and game understanding. But the story turned darker for MarineKing as well, as he never quite found his footing after the patch of Zerg uprising and became just an average Code S Terran. He never managed to ride his international momentum into GSL success, despite now pulling through a tough Ro32 group for the second season in a row, and even his foreign tournament showings have not been quite on the same level. MarineKing’s OSL has also featured a victory over Jangbi and a heartbreaking loss to Rain, failing to capitalise on a commanding position in his first week match.

With both of these players sharing similar stories throughout 2012 and with the map being the relatively balanced Ohana, how do we make a pick here? My gut says Ohana slightly favors Terran and the statistics agree, but it’s not likely to be the deciding factor despite it being a Bo1. While DRG’s recent fall has been worrying, his ZvT has looked as strong as ever, having not lost a broadcast game against Terran in a few months. MarineKing, on the other hand, has looked especially weak in TvZ since his glory days, so I’ll have to go with DRG in what is sure to be a highlight match of the Ro16.

DongRaeGu > MarineKing

Last vs Fantasy – Antiga Shipyard

In our only KeSPA versus KeSPA matchup of day six, Last vs Fantasy will also decide who advances to the Ro16 and who is left to try again next season. With neither having shown particularly noteworthy prowess in SC2 TvT as of yet, we’re left with what is mostly educated guesswork in previewing this game.

Last, certainly the less famous of the two, has thus far had some success in making it through the OSL qualifiers and defeating NesTea. At the same time, though, he hasn’t really been a standout in Proleague, WCS, or WCG, and therefore is still something of a wild card. We know KeSPA players have shown drastic improvement from week to week, so the real question for Last might be “do we think he’s elevated his TvT above what his 2-3 record has shown?”

Fantasy is nearly as much of a wild card despite being the silver medalist of the final Brood War OSL, but with an impressive 7-1 Proleague record, he’s at least made the most of the opportunities he’s had. Still, without any success against GSL players, it’s really hard to tell where he stands overall in the scene, even against a fellow KeSPA player. From what we’ve seen, Fantasy has been excellent, and it’s up to him to keep up the momentum as he fully transitions into SC2.

Fantasy has the better track record, and neither really has enough games to say “well, he could be great; he just got unlucky a few times”. Therefore, all signs point to Fantasy to take this game and advance into the Ro8, but in a Bo1 series between two players who will certainly come well-prepared, nearly anything can happen.

Last < Fantasy

PartinG vs Mvp – Daybreak

Ever since PartinG infamously claimed that he would definitely not lose to Mvp in a Bo5 series two GSL seasons ago, he hasn’t quite been the same “new Protoss king” that we thought he could be a few months back. Now, he faces off against Mvp, looking for Starleague-branded revenge in another exciting group decider.

PartinG has always been touted as something of a PvT specialist, with his Korean record exhibiting a solid 60% win ratio in the matchup. Despite the hype train slowing down after his unsuccessful Royal Road attempt earlier this year, PartinG has still shown he has what it takes with a decent third place finish at WCS Korea. In his WCS run he took down Code S competition in all three matchups, but I wouldn’t say that it was enough to point to him as someone we’d pick for the championship of a major tournament soon (although admittedly he did come a couple of PvP’s away from doing so). If PartinG lives until Templar are out and defends for the win we could see a textbook victory from him, but he has never been able to consistently get to that point often enough that we can count on it happening.

On the other side is Mvp, possibly the most storied player in Korean SC2 thus far. With four GSL championships, one MLG victory, one IEM victory, and enough bad wrist stories to make us wonder how he’s still even playing, Mvp can never be counted out of ANY match he’s playing, especially in Korea (cough Waxangel). Mvp’s play as of late has still featured his trademark solid mech style, mixed with plenty of unique tactics ensuring that he always has a mental edge on his opponents. While Mvp has certainly been winning as much as ever lately, his wrist problems and the fact that he’s relying so often on strategic play makes us worry that his time may not last forever. He’s no longer the undisputed king even when he’s playing well, and it’s hard to really say what that means for his future, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt knowing that he can still beat anyone in the world.

As for this match, it’s a tough one to call. Daybreak is a big map and one where PartinG could shine against a Terran player not particularly shown for his large-scale multitasking and micro. In a standard game, I’d pick PartinG as the slight favorite, but there’s still that mysterious Mvp factor, where everyone knows that he means business. And you know what? I’m gonna go with my gut and say Mvp once again finds a way to pull through again and advance to the Ro8.

PartinG < Mvp

San vs BeSt – Entombed Valley

With both San and BeSt already being eliminated from the group and with GSL vs KeSPA PvP being as unpredictable as it is, I don’t really think this game is worth a whole lot of fanfare. Both fell hard to MC and Flash, although we will give BeSt credit for showing excellent play against Flash even in defeat. Good luck to both players next season, and feel free to flip your favorite coin for the winner!

San < BeSt