WCS Korea Season 3
GSL Code S
Ro32 - Group D Preview
Maru, Sleep, Dream, Bbyong
Brackets and standings on Liquipedia
Ro32 Group D Preview
by CosmicSpiral
The post-championship slump is a frustrating yet common reality of competitive play. After spending a brief moment standing atop a heap of one's conquered foes, it seems so easy to stumble and fall back into the chaotic fray. A winning formula can be upset by so many things: injuries, the pressures of success, complacency, failure to adapt, and any number of factors outside the actual game. It makes one realize that victory is as much the product of right circumstances as it is of overall skill. An underdog is often just a player whose good circumstances we fail to recognize, as he dodges obstacles and capitalizes on all his personal strengths. Conversely future failure can sometimes indicates the adaptation of opponents rather than the poor luck of the once champion.
It’s too soon to tell whether MaruPrime is the latest in the line of one-and-done Korean champions, but his poor performance at the WCS Season 2 Finals was at least a rude reminder that it’s hard to stay at the top. Two weeks prior he had won the OSL in stunning fashion while beating the best KeSPA had to offer. He completely out-strategized Innovation in a brutal sweep and cracked the usually impenetrable shell of Rain in the final. After such an impressive run it was no surprise that he was the favorite in his Season Finals group, and he did showcase the strong play we expected against MMA.
But his games against aLive and Scarlett were disastrous in every sense. He was not merely beaten but dominated by two opponents who should have struggled to even win a game. Furthermore he reverted back to old habits on Derelict Watcher, attempting to proxy his initial barracks twice after decisively losing a macro game. One of Maru’s primary strengths is imposing his own will on opponents, and it was a sign of desperation to see him react so severely to his losses. He comes back to Korea with a slightly bruised ego and an air of vulnerability that can be exploited by the competition.
However, is AZUBU.Sleep the type of player who can recognize and punish the holes in Maru’s play? It would be helpful if Sleep had some ZvT games to watch, but unfortunately he seems to be living underneath a rock these days. At least during his CheckSix days Sleep was able to rack up foreigner kills while finding some measure of exposure; with the exception of haphazard GSTL appearances Sleep has been all but invisible in Korean competition during HotS. So his rapid rise to Premier League was somewhat of an outlier, especially since it was off the back of 3 strong ZvZ series. Does it mean that Sleep has found his rhythm and is ready to make a memorable first impression in the vein of his teammate Symbol? Or did he roll snake eyes by getting 3 Terrans while only knowing the ZvZ matchup? There’s so little information on Sleep that I can only judge him on the merits of his accomplishments and they simply don’t compare to the rest of the group.
Speaking of being invisible, let’s talk about CJ_Bbyong. Or rather, let’s talk about how there’s so little to talk about in this section. Once again our nondescript gatekeeper must continue his thankless role of separating the Code S worthy from those who need to train in Code A for another season. He is perfect for this role, winning 50% of his games and 50% of his total series during the HotS era. His playstyle has little flair, but is varied enough to force a measure of respect from his opponents. In fact Bbyong is usually so stable that he would be a sensible pick to advance to the next round…if his TvT wasn’t so undependable. A 7-14 game record is pretty deplorable considering it’s his most played matchup in HotS. However, those statistics are distorted by some very poor luck. Bbyong had to face Bomber, Flash, and INnoVation in his Ro16 group during the last OSL and while he didn’t take a single series, his gameplay seemed fairly competitive. He generally matched his opponents step by step until it was time to aggressively posture on the map, where he fall victim to indecisiveness.
Such a weakness will prove fatal against the aggressive maneuvers of MVP.Dream. One of the promising up-and-comers who participated in the ESV e-Sports Weekly Matches and and the Korean StarCraft II Leagues of yore, Dream has finally caught up with some of his more successful online-only peers and become a formidable force in the scene. Sadly he won’t have the chance to relive those old matches as most of his previous adversaries either dropped to Challenger League (Life) or are competing in another region (TaeJa). The lack of familiar faces ought to only hurt a little. Dream has been playing in top form ever since the new expansion started and he should be morally bolstered by his excellent performance in the Acer TeamStory Cup playoffs. Considering his so-so TvT it would be a bit much to expect him to top the group; Maru is quite proficient at TvT and Bbyong is competent enough to take the series if Dream lets the nerves affect his decision making.
Predictions:
There is a chance that Sleep gets out of the group. There are so few recorded ZvT games of him available that he could defy expectations and counter their more recognizable flaws. Yet Sleep is too much of a question mark to include in a rational analysis; the group should be decided by the 3 terran players and the strength of their TvT. Maru’s use of aggressive strategies to throw off the opponent serves him well in the matchup and it’s doubtful that he will crumble under the pressure like he did at the WCS finals. Dream has beaten and lost to good Terrans in equal measure so his success tonight is contingent on whether he can just play normally. Bbyong is the underdog in this scenario as his best games also exposed his greatest weakness, one that can be forced to surface if Maru or Dream decide to play defensively.
Maru > Sleep
Bbyong < Dream
Maru > Dream
Bbyong > Sleep
Bbyong < Dream
Maru and Dream advance.
Progamer Pokedex: No Reprieve
by monkMaru is Bulbasaur! Young trainers starting off from the town of Pallet are given a choice of three Pokemon. Though they all started off as babies newly hatched from their eggs, each had amazing potential, the potential to lead their trainers to championships. And even though each eventually did, those who choose Bulbasaur are probably the most happy with their choices right now. In the latest generation, Bulbasaur's evolved form found itself with major upgrades, which propelled it to become one of the best non-legendaries there is. Unfortunately for Bulbasaur, it has not proven itself to be legendary status just yet. (Finally, yes, I fully realize that that Creator is Squirtle in this analogy.)
Sleep is Farfetch'd! Farfetch'd is a Pokemon that seemingly exists solely for the purpose of demonstrating trade mechanics to new trainers. (Man, Farfetch'd gets traded a lot.) Of the plethora of fully evolved Normal/Flying types in Generation I (see Pidgeot, Fearow, Dodrio), it is certainly the worst. In Generation II, it was solely used as a plot device without any additional redeeming battling upgrades except that it got a stick. And even as each generation contributed at least one Normal/Flying type (see Noctowl, Togekiss, Swellow, Staraptor, Unfezant, Braviary, Fletchling), Farfetch'd still remained the worst. Though you could trade a Spearow for it in Red/Blue, why would want to except to complete the Pokedex?
Generation VI spoiler alert: Farfetch'd is still the worst Normal/Flying type.
Dream is Mudkip! Last year, we gave our first nod to the world of Pokemon. Turns out, Dream was the correct choice. While all of his competition bowed out early or have given up to battle elsewhere, Mudkip has remained competitive in the world of Pokemon. Though it lacks any special skills, Mudkip's evolved form has a perfect distribution of stats and a perfect typing to remain competitive. As a result, it is one of the most surprisingly effective and efficient battlers that exist.
So I heard you like Dream? Well, good, good for you. Me too.
Bbyong is Zubat! Omnipresent in every tunnel, cave, and rock trail, Zubat always manages to show up when it's not welcome. Not only that, even though it's exceptionally weak and is almost completely useless for the single player, it'll always find a way to annoy and damage your team every chance it gets. Go away, Zubat. You're just wasting our time that could be used elsewhere like in battling actually useful or exciting opponents that give decent experience.
For those of you who haven't played the games, this comic sums it up pretty nicely.