[MSL] Savior Watch

Is it me or is Nada seem more and more intimidating as Group G gets closer? He's won all his ZvTs in the last few months (though not playing many). Game will be on Destination, which we saw a few nights ago when Iris and Leta both proxied. Here is what I think can happen, from best to worst:


If this happens it'd be like building a time machine and traveling back to February 2007. The last time Savior did this was... I can't even remember. Maybe against Nada in ODT for Daum back in January 2008? Honestly if Savior has two games like I described in #1 we can expect him to go deep into the MSL. But the chances of this happening is quite low, because he's not going to somehow miraculously re-learn his ZvT prowess overnight. Savior's strength before was overall game feel, not straight mechanics. You can't really practice that, no matter how much time you have.


If Savior beats Nada, this is his best shot. Maybe some ridiculous muta micro, a crazy hold lurker, or weird, non-hive rush build. He definitely has the time to come up with something cool, and Nada can at times be predictable, especially when Nada is sort of the "favorite" going into the match and is more likely to play safe. This result would be great, because it means Savior is using his head, adapting, and re-inventing himself. This sort of win is exactly what Savior needs to do if he wants to win the MSL, and that is to be scrappy, creative, and different. The old way wasn't working, unless he can somehow morph into Jaedong. This would be a sign and step in the right direction.


This is actually really good, because it means Savior's game sense is coming back. But its unlikely because Nada knows if he just plays safe and eco-based he will probably come out ahead. Funny how things have changed from before, lasting into late game TvZ vs Savior now means win instead of autoloss.


This will tell us nothing about whether Savior is good or bad, and probably means as soon as he runs into someone good he will lose. It also shows that he doesn't have much confidence or just is plain lucky. This is still a good result because it means Savior probably will advance, but also means he's going to be out in the Ro16.


Not bad. Means hes moving forward, improving. We might see a good run from him yet if this happens. Encouraging signs, even if its a loss. If this happens we can feel pretty good, because it means he likely will beat Free or Dongrae and still have a good shot to advance.


Failing at cheese shows lack of confidence. Failing to stop cheese shows amateurish game sense. Both situations suck because it means Savior isn't improving. He was uncheeseable during his Bonjwa days, now it seems like there are just so many ways he can lose. It also doesn't bode well for him for the rest of the group. If this happens its more likely than not Savior fails to qualify for the next round.


If this happens and then Savior loses similarly in the losers game, stick a fork in Ma Jae Yoon, the guy is done. No qualifications for next season's individual leagues, no appearances in Proleague, no nothing, except a vacation with Nal_rA where they reminisce about the good old days. I read somewhere that Savior watches his old VODs a lot, and that really bugged me because dude needs to stop living in the past and face reality, he's not going to be that guy again. Every step forward from where he is now is going to be brutal and difficult, and the sooner he stops looking backwards, the sooner he can actually move forward.

Side note: re-watching old VODs is what Savior fans should do together, so show up 90 minutes before Group G and watch Shinhan3 finals with us! (TL Time 12:30 KST).


If this happens I will slit my wrists, because what the hell is he doing in the CJ house? No amount of practice or skill will make this work, especially not against someone who is as good with mm and vessels as Nada is. Savior should just walk into the booth and light his computer on fire. There is no describing how frustrated I'd be if this happened. Four pooling on ridiculous travel length Destination is still 10x better than this. If this happens, we can just start the Kwanro or Effort fan club. Seriously Savior, if you ZvT hive rush again it is a slap in the face to all your fans. Don't do it. (Unless you win with it, because then all is forgiven.)

We're just about a day away from the Nada/Savior showdown. Its interesting how Nada has proven himself to be able to come back and compete after going through slumps (due to his family problems or whatever) and now this just seems like another starleague for him. For Savior, however, it feels different. When I read that Nal_rA retired, it really made me think about the inevitable moment when Savior gives up as well. Will it come in a year? A few years? A few months? We're never sure about these things. Nal_rA was Savior's rival during the Pringles MSLs, and now he's a commentator. I just hope we get many more maestro-ish moments (or even another title) from Savior before he hits the retirement wall. Its depressing to think about, but makes me appreciate the ClubDay Online MSL even more.

A few links: a thread about Savior's 165-110 overall record, which stands at exactly 60.00% winrate. If he advances, he'll keep his career winning percentage over that magical sixty.

Also a thread about Savior's arch nemesis, FireBatHero. No, it's not Bisu because from what I've read both Savior and Bisu like each other, while Savior really hates FBH, going so far as to ask his teammate Much to humiliate him. Personally, I think if you want to make a statement you do it yourself, but I think this (along with Xellos' mocking) goes on to show how closely-knit the CJ team is and how they support each other even through tough times. If you are a true Savior fan, and I can't stress this enough... you must hate FireBatHero. There's no middle ground. It's like the Yankees and the Red Sox, if the Red Sox sucked at TvP and never won a championship.

In an effort to generate some good karma for the Nada vs. Savior game in a few days, I've decided to re-watch the Shinhan3 Finals between Savior and Nada that took place back in February 2007. I'll be watching games 1, 3 and 4 at 12:30 KST / TLTime (roughly 90 minutes before the MSL Group G starts) and chatting it up on IRC. If you want to watch with me, we can sync our VODs together. Hopefully if enough of us do this we can somehow will Savior to play better. Who knows! See you then.

Time is corrected, now the rewatch will happen at 12:30 KST.

Autoloss:
Sea, Flash, ForGG, Jaedong, Bisu

Almost Autoloss:
FBH, Leta, Ruby

50/50:
Hwasin, Nada, Jangbi, Free, Iris, Yarnc, Fantasy, Frozean, Lomo

Somewhat favored:
Kal, Much, Stork, BackHo, Tempest

Big favorite:
Everyone else.

As you can see, judging by recent play, Savior's middle of the pack. It'll take a drastic improvement or an act of god to make the semis/finals. Maybe all the Ts in the top couple categories lose to non-Bisu Ps and Savior gets the bracket draw of his life. Maybe Savior can practice his way in, as he doesn't really have many commitments other than this. The odds are stacked against MJY in this MSL more so than any other time in his career.

I wasn't able to watch the MSL group selection so I can't really comment on how Savior looked in it. All I know is FBH isn't in Savior's group this time, and that's a good thing. As much as I'd like to see revenge happen, even the most stalwart Savior supporter has to admit that FBH has got inside Ma Jae Yoon's head.

Thankfully, Much drew all the FBH attention onto himself. Not sure if this was intentional or inadvertent, but it really helped Savior out. Fortunately for Much, FBH has great TvZ but horrific TvP. Much is likely thrilled to be chosen by FBH, because what is bound to happen is an easy win and FBH sobbing to himself afterwards. I will cackle with glee when this happens, because I flat hate FBH and all Savior fans should.

Game 1: free vs Dongrae on Medusa
Game 2: NaDa vs sAviOr on Destination
Winner's Final on Athena 2
Loser's Final on Athena 2
Playoff Final on Byzantium 2

I think the Free vs Dongrae match is a tossup. I have no idea how PvT on Medusa will go, but I do know if both players play their best, Free will beat

Dongrae. Unfortunately Free is terrifically inconsistent, so how he plays in the Dongrae match will probably indicate whether he advances or fails.

Savior vs Nada @ Destination:
I'll reserve my comments and predictions on this match for a day or two, after looking at and hearing more about the map. All I can say is Savior vs Nada never disappoints, it's a classic matchup that carries with it much historical weight.

Savior vs Free @ Athena 2:
Savior has historically been strong gainst P, but his recent games aren't instilling much confidence. The last time he played free he won a turtle/swarm game on Andromeda but lost attempting the same thing on Othello, and died to reaver sair zealot timing on Blue Storm. His most recent two games against Spear were, as I mentioned before, unnecessarily risky. Looking at the PvZ stats on this map, it looks relatively balanced, but two of the Zerg wins were Jaedong steamrolling P's early in the map's existence. There's one quality Z loss and that's Tempest > Luxury, but no quality P losses (unless you count Jaedong > Much). Stork, Bisu, and Jangbi all won their PvZs (albiet agianst midlevel guys). Free is more in the upper level PvZ category, so it will be sufficiently scary if Savior plays him in the winners.

Savior vs Dongrae @ Athena 2:
If this happens, I know a lot of Savior fans will groan because the first Athena was 3-9 ZvT. However, upon closer inspection of the games, it's mostly elite Terrans beating on lesser Zergs. The two games with upper level players of both races were Jaedong > Hwasin and Sea > Luxury. Jaedong won with a four pool, so you can essentially throw that game out (perhaps this will make Terrans rax at 1 earlier supply? who knows). The other game was Luxury attempting mutaling into ultra and Sea denying Lux a third gas long enough to grind him down with SK. Savior can't win against this style. If the T gets a large army ball and plays patient and doesn't get overagressive, Savior will eventually lose. When UpMagic is successfully doing this to him, Sea or Flash certainly will.

Fortunately, Dongrae sucks and likely won't play standard. Savior shouldn't have to feel too threatened by him. The recent Calm vs Ruby match on this map demonstrated a two hatch drop harass strategy that in competent hands (ie not Calm's) could be effective, and it's something Savior could pull off. If I could speak to Savior before this match I'd tell him that he's the better player, to not rush to hive, and to remember to get fucking adrenal glands.

Savior vs Free / Dongrae / Nada @ Byzantium 2
For the sake of this article I'm going to assume the changes made to Byzantium don't greatly impact balance. At first glance this map looks like a nightmare ZvP. It's 0-7. But the good news is there are zero quality Z losses on it (No Lux, JD, July, or even Yarnc or GGplay). Still, the order of preference for Savior opponents is Dongrae by a mile, then Free or Nada, with the map negating Savior's better ZvP than ZvT. Most fans want a Nada/Savior advance out of this group so it will be especially cruel if they had to face off in the game to go. The ZvT on this map slants slightly Terran. Quality wins include Yarnc > FBH (not close), but DarkElf > Lux as well, with DarkElf macroing up to 8+ tanks and brushing aside hive tech. I'd say Savior's a huge favorite over Dongrae, 50/50 with Free, and somewhat of an underdog (not by much) against Nada.

If Savior is in the final match I'll probably be drinking heavily and my fingernails will be chewed off. So much is at stake, because passing here means Savior is one bo3/bo5 from a seed into the next MSL. Savior needs that seed, for his psyche and because offline qualifiers grow more hellacious every season. Also, I trust MJY's preparation and series-play way more than his ability to win a single pressure game nowadays.

I want to watch Savior play series and I want to write about it more. I suspect the MSL does too. Everyone cross your fingers!

Savior could not have lucked out more with this group than if he bribed the MSL bracket makers himself. Spear, UpMagic, and Hyuk? If Savior doesn't advance here we can all hit the panic button because we won't be seeing him again for months.

Savior vs Spear @ Athena
Spear executes a ridiculously stupid strategy, going sair-reaver into goon-reaver. His harass is ineffective and he lets Savior take as many bases as he wants. There's just no way to make this work if you invest so much gas into goons. Yet the game remains remarkably close until Savior executes a perfect counter after Spear moves out. If Spear had left one probe in the counter path, the game probably would've been his. I suppose that's what separates Spear from someone like Bisu. It's alarming that even though Savior made the correct decisions at every juncture in this game, it still felt very, very tight throughout. Full-army counters don't inspire confidence. I suppose we're looking for the old no-weakness management Savior, but that guy isn't coming back. That guy has morphed into risky gamble Savior or hive at any cost Savior. I'm not even sure which style is better for him now, as every P has gotten exponentially better at harassing. A win is a win though.

In the other game, UpMagic beats Hyuk in a hilarious game where mutas chase vultures around a main with drones you can count on one hand. Up made some sort of proxy marine/vulture/tank rush actually work. This is the best case scenario for MJY, as Up's TvZ isn't that great and Byzantium is not terribly imbalanced.

Savior vs UpMagic @ Byzantium
Game starts out OK. Up FE's, Savior takes 3 gas, his mutas do alright. He morphs a lot of midgame lurkers, which is promising. Up's first ball comes out and sieges. We're waiting for the flank. We keep waiting, because Savior doesn't flank. He doesn't effectively cut off reinforcements and lets Up's army grow too large. To Up's credit, he spreads his tanks well and wears down the hive tech by denying a fourth gas. But Savior's strategy is doomed against the modern Terrans. You simply can't successfully win off three gas hive anymore unless you either do damage early on. Attack early, flank and take a fourth base, or counter behind his first ball. Savior got caught between flank and hive rush. I guess it's better than simply hive rushing and dying. UpMagic seals his spot in a very very painful game, and Hot_Bid wonders to himself if Savior will win a standard ZvT ever again.

Savior vs Spear @ Blue Storm
Oh my god why is Savior two hatch muta rushing on a Z>>P map against a mediocre P?!? This strategy was unbelievably risky and stupid but executed perfectly so it worked. I can't believe it. My heart was pounding so much during this match. Savior's in the MSL! It's a great feeling, but all signs point to a rough road, because if Savior plays like he did here against the other qualifiers, he won't make it past the Ro32. Practice hard MJY, you'll need more than counters and muta rushes.