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Now, now, stop fighting and calling each other silly names. Here is a shiny new toy for all aspiring clue analyzers to play with. It's pretty utilitarian and doesn't contain the full information in each player's profile, but it should be somewhat easier to read than clicking on each profile individually.
...and holy crap, Pyrrhuloxia has already found it.
Please don't use it as a crutch; however. As I said, it does not contain all the relevant info in the profiles (only the name, quote, profile and photo) and I have no idea what BloodyCobbler might use as clues. But it might help a little to have something to look at, anyway.
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At the moment, I'm hesitant to make any predictions, let alone plans, about the contract killer. It's such a variable role and can be played very differently depending on the player. How they use their various abilities, who they approach for contracts and what agreements they make are completely up to them.
As for things from the Day One that the detectives could verify as clues, I'd like to suggest the following. Some of them are pretty tenuous, but at this point I'm pretty sure I have no idea where clues might be hidden.
1. The lunging figure that bowled into BloodyCobbler 2. The TV 3. The incomprehensible phrase 4. The fact that both of them gazed up 5. BloodyCobbler being left to die slowly, rather than getting finished off right away by his killer
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I think inertinept may be a better suspect. From what I can tell so far, he has been completely inactive in the thread, but not so inactive overall that he couldn't visit the voting blog to vote for a candidate who isn't even remotely in the running for Mayor. He pretty much came out of nowhere and randomly voted for someone, without any reasoning whatsoever. If nothing else, even an innocent townie who acts like they can't be bothered to contribute (especially if they appear to still be able to post about the game) is no great loss for the town.
In addition, his voting for 0cz3c seems like something a Mafia member would do, either because both inertinept and 0cz3c are Mafia misguidedly trying to affect the election or, rather more likely, because inertinept is trying to cast suspicion on 0cz3c. This is completely speculative; for all I know, he's just kidding around. It's either ominous or pointless. Either way, it doesn't make him look like someone worth keeping around.
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I think he's saying he agrees with you.
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Wow. I have to say, the events of Day 2 are pretty much the personification of my quote. We were all hoping and looking forward to the Day post so much, yet it ended up with two detectives dead and the nasty (though not entirely disheartening) surprise that there seems to be not one, but two, Mafia families involved. I agree, there doesn't seem to be any other way that a Mafia member could have died before Night 2.
My tentative clue analysis: I like the connection between Versatile and Pyrrhuloxia's killer. Her quote is "I am so hip, even my errors are correct," and the Mafia member's tripping and stumbling are a lot like errors that turn out to be correct when he manages to dodge Pyrrh's bullets and stab him to death.
I might also suggest LucasWoJ as Bockit's killer, just because of the amount of music at the end of his profile. This is despite the fact that he apparently wrote everything in his profile specifically to mess with Mafia games by making himself an obvious suspect. But considering all that was written about Bockit's death was that he went over to the jukebox, picked a song, switched it to another and then was brutally smashed, that's the best I could come up with.
So far, I haven't come up with anything for nemY's or Fusionsdf's killers. It seems like more poring over profiles and trying to figure out how BC's mind works (which I've definitely failed to do so far) is still needed.
Oh! Speaking of profiles, should I put my list of player profiles in my quote or something? Am I even allowed to change that mid-game? I'd just feel silly if I had to bump it every time I update it with role information.
Edit: Fixed the last sentence.
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On April 26 2009 23:06 mikeymoo wrote: Actually throughout the entire game, I'd lean that way, and reach for clue analysis when we have to.
I agree, especially given how obscure BC's clues seem to be from his last game and from the little we've had so far this game. The only reason I'd shy away from relying too heavily on behavior analysis is that it still is exams season for most players, so some do have a legitimate excuse to be quieter than usual. From my own experience, "finals week" can be any week between mid-April to mid-June for different schools. So, I think the best strategy is to try and combine clue analysis with behavior analysis, by either doing what MrBabyHands did in Chuiu's last game of finding suspicious people through behavior analysis and matching them up to clues or finding people through clues and seeing if those people have been acting funny or contradictory lately.
So far, I think the best candidates for lynching ("best" meaning "tenuous, but a little less so than the alternatives") are Versatile and JeeJee. Versatile showed herself to be an intelligent, thoughtful and active player in Ace's and Chuiu's but hasn't said anything at all here, not even stopping in to vote. That, and her quote about her errors turning out correct, which sounds like how Pyrrhuloxia's killer acted, makes her seem suspicious.
JeeJee has also been pretty inactive, and his response to Qatol's accusation seems more like an inept attempt at deflecting blame onto someone else rather than self-defense. He first says that he has ideas but doesn't want to post them (usually not a good sign - I mean, even I post my ideas and I know they're pretty bad, but I know discussion keeps this game active and might help inspire someone else). Then he turns on Qatol by referring to his quote "Uff Da" and saying his profile contains nothing else to make clues from...even though Qatol has a quote in his profile as well, a line about duct tape from Burn Notice. In addition, perhaps JeeJee's quote about tears of angst could match up with Fusionsdf's killer pressing something into his eyes? It's a very simplistic link, but I imagine if someone was pressing something into my eyes, I'd probably cry tears of pain too.
I'm not really sold on Monoxide or the other suspects who have been named yet. Nor on a double lynch. We have too many possibilities and not enough certainties right now, I think.
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In light of recent posts, I've been reconsidering JeeJee as a suspect as well. I first thought he was suspicious because he seemed more defensive than usual about being accused. In the last game, he was accused repeatedly as well (something about digging, I think) and responded more calmly, pointing out other clues that fit better with other people. In addition, he usually helps by doing clue analysis, which was noticeably absent this time, all the more so because this time the town is much quieter and I think we can all agree we need all the help we can get.
I admit I was wrong about the word "angst" in his quote, though. I had the vague idea that the word meant unhappiness or pain, when in fact it means anxiety, fear or apprehension. (Dictionary.com does use "anguish" in its definition, which is a synonym for suffering or pain, though, so I don't feel quite as bad). Thanks for pointing that out, JeeJee.
Though her activity seems normal now that she's returned, I still think Versatile's quote best fits the Mafia who tripped but managed to dodge a bullet and killed Pyrrhuloxia. At this point, I can't find anyone who links solidly to clues, honestly.
To L: I'm curious, why Ver? I remember he said he'd be tied up by exams until Tuesday, and his activity has definitely reflected that.
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Just to say, I changed my vote from JeeJee to Versatile not because of a bandwagon or anything, but because I'm more comfortable with the clue pointing to her quote than the slight inconsistencies in JeeJee's behavior.
I'd also like to bring up an alternate interpretation of Qatol's posts, which people have found so suspicious. I don't see him as trying to "push" a double lynch. On page 25, what he says is, basically, "We've identified four possible suspects. This is more than we can handle in one night. I think a double lynch would be a good idea." He lists his reasons for thinking this: 1) The detectives can use rolechecks tonight, which were very strong in the last game, 2) Day 3 will probably provide more clues we can use to find Mafia, and 3) he thought at the time that we had good suspects. (That last one is wildly optimistic, I admit.) In the middle, though, can be found what I think is the most telling part of the double-lynch posts: He says, essentially, "Please persuade me if you think differently than I do about double lynches."
I agree that double lynches are an aggressive move, and one that should be saved until we know better what we're doing. I definitely agree that Qatol isn't usually that aggressive. But he's also never been Mayor before, the setup has never been this full of surprises and, most tellingly, the town has never been this quiet. It seems to me that he introduces the idea of double lynches not to "push" them onto people (he doesn't even suggest who should be lynched), but because he thinks it's a good idea and wants to promote active discussion about it. There's probably nothing more frustrating than being elected as Mayor to a town, only to find there's barely a town present to be Mayor of. I think Qatol was just trying to get us to talk more.
I don't say that he isn't be Mafia. I have no idea, honestly. But I do think he had a reason for bringing up double lynches that doesn't necessarily automatically translate to Mafia.
And I'm with Tricode. Let's get that annoying BloodyCobbler fellow, with his secretive ways and his surprise multiple Mafia families!
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What the... I was still gathering my thoughts about Versatile, Ace and Qatol and figured I had a good day or so left to post. After last time, I didn't expect Day 3 to dawn so soon.
At this point, I think the town has to lynch Qatol just to get some peace of mind. (Though, with Ace flipping green and Versatile turning out to be a veteran, I can't help thinking how ironic and sad it would be if he too turned out to be town-aligned and this all turned out to be a wrong road.)
I'll try to contribute some clue analysis as I look over Day 3 events again. With so many deaths, we're bound to be able to link something to someone. For now, I think the weird phrase that Amber[light] sees on Fakesteve's computer screen might link up with the incomprehensible phrase Scaramanga sees on his TV before he dies. Maybe we're looking for someone with an affinity for electronics, or just for leaving messages to the person they plan to kill? Fakesteve's death is especially strange; I'm not even sure how to interpret it. Was he suffocated in a black shroud, or does the object that "glides through his shoulder" mean he was getting impaled with a knife?
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I'd like to mention that the format of the Day post has changed. The previous two Day posts both had only two paragraphs in which multiple people were killed. Someone suggested that this might mean the first paragraph refers to one Mafia family and the second to the other. I thought this was a pretty good idea at the time, especially since it suggested both detectives died to the same information leak the first day.
In this Day post, though, the first and last paragraphs in Day Three show two people dying, while the others just mention one person dying. If we assume the posting format hasn't changed, then the only difference is that tonight, vigilantes and contract killers got to hit as well. So, the paragraphs in the middle, with only one person dying, could be referring to vigilante and CK hits. If that's true and BC is really writing his posts that way, then that lends further credence to Caller's claim that he did a vigi hit on Ace. Ace's death is in one of the isolated paragraphs. So, if we believe this hypothesis, that suggests he was killed by a vigilante or CK, at least.
Does this seem like it makes sense to anyone else? It was just something I noticed and thought of while trying to do clue analysis. There are so many people dying and so many clues, but all pretty vague. But I thought this was worth bringing up, if only so to hear what you guys think.
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I'm sorry for not having contributed to the clue analysis, despite the large number of deaths and therefore of clues. To be honest, I'm having a hard time making much of these clues. For example, the "long object" that RaGe's killer swings could be a baseball bat, a staff, a polearm or a broom; it's the only clue we have, but it's somewhat less than helpful.
I would like to mention that I'm starting to change my mind about the weird phrase that amber[light] sees being related to the incomprehensible phrase on TV that Scaramanga saw. In light of my earlier posts about the possible pattern that BC's posts follow, in which the first and last paragraphs seem to indicate Mafia kills (because they show multiple deaths) while the middle ones talk about CK or vigilante kills (single deaths), I don't think they can be related. Only a Mafia member could have killed Scaramanga, whereas the posting format seems to suggest a contract killer or vigilante killed amber[light]. Thoughts on this, anyone? It's discouraging if true, because the two seem so perfectly linked.
For Fakesteve, I was especially struck by the mention of the black shroud that enveloped him when he died. Whatever caused it, it gives the impression of darkness descending. This made me think of 3clipse, particularly as I see nothing else in his profile.
I'm a little wary of automatically assuming that blue_arrow is linked to the arrow that killed Laxercannon, just because it seems a little too easy. I remember in the last game, the Mafia that killed people with arrows was actually someone else (Centric, I think) and not blue_arrow at all. Unfortunately, I don't have any alternate explanations. Perhaps the fact that the arrow came from behind him, constituting a sneak attack, could be a clue, as Laxercannon saw his killer stepping out from an alleyway only after he had already been hit. Perhaps someone with mentions of stealth in their profile might also fit this clue.
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On May 05 2009 02:35 L wrote: That said, the Uff Da clumsy killer clue is a pretty solid link to Qatol, but I'm not sure exactly what we gain by killing him immediately, given that we can force his 3 votes to pad a votelist for someone the town agrees upon, and if he disagrees we simply move to lynch him. I'm around 90% certain Qatol is mafia at this point, so only a 100% sure kill would dissuade me.
I believe somewhere in this thread, someone mentioned that a DT clue-checked this and said that that clue does not link to Qatol. Of course, we can't be sure how much credibility to give this, but I thought I should mention that.
On May 05 2009 02:35 L wrote:Also: Can someone explain why people are balls out for LordWeird?
I can't find Malongo's post where he makes a case against LordWeird, but I think it has to do with his profile, which links with the hiccupping, staggering person who killed Showtime!. His profile picture shows him taking a drink, which fits with the killer's seemingly drunken behavior.
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On May 05 2009 04:03 t_co wrote: I think dreamflower and Chuiu are mafia.
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Dreamflower I think is mafia because he follows most of Qatol's votes, and usually changes his votes right after Qatol does. Also, I suspect he may be FakeSteve[TPR]'s murderer but I'm not sure if that's the case. More digging later.
Just wanted to respond to this...
It's definitely true that my voting record has been less than exemplary. To address t_co's observation, however, I am usually a late voter, partly because I'm cautious by nature and partly because I've been painfully absent-minded about voting now that the votes are in a separate blog rather than here in the Mafia thread. So, I do tend to vote after other people already have voted, including Qatol.
All my reasons for voting can be found in the voting blog. On Day Two, I first voted for JeeJee because I was suspicious of the way he flared up after being accused after days of silence (especially as he used to be quite active in previous games) and a weak connection I made to the tears of angst in his quote to fusionsdf's killer pressing something into his eyes. After JeeJee corrected my definition of "angst" and, more importantly, L mentioned that JeeJee usually acts this way early in games, I transferred my vote to Versatile. I thought her quote was the best connection to Pyrrhuloxia's killer, who tripped and dodged the bullets. Given how little behavior there was to analyze at first, I felt more comfortable relying on clue analysis. During this, Qatol first voted for Monoxide but then switched to JeeJee before I even voted, and finally settled on Versatile after I had already switched my vote.
On Day Three, I voted for Quickstriker because I thought his insisting on his being an inexperienced newbie (usually not a good sign) and his extremely long posts I also found one of Bockit's early posts saying, essentially, "Don't pay attention to Quickstriker," which to me seemed like he was trying to deflect attention from him.
As for my probe icon, many people have probe unit icons. And BC has only once ever used a unit icon as a clue, and only then for an inactive player with a blank profile.
Oh, and by the way, I'm a girl. Just thought I should mention that. It's kind of funny but also really, really weird to be called "he."
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@L: Here are the posts I mentioned in response to your question.
Malongo's case against LordWeird:
On May 02 2009 17:48 Malongo wrote: Showtime! and laxercannon headed for the gunshots, hoping to be able to save whomever they could. As they ran, they saw a man hiccupping and swaying moving towards them. Showtime moved to see if he was ok, and moved his hands to steady him, the next thing Showtime! knew, he had a knife stuck in his chest. Laxercannon turned, and drawing a knife of his own he moved to attack the man, only to stop dead, as an arrow pierced his neck. As laxercannon fell, he saw a man stepping out of a nearby alley. The man is DRUNK. I ask the real townies to vote lynch lordweird. Note that his profile can be linked to other clues like day 2 the guy that does something in the eyes of his victim and others. I ask to skip lynching qatol for now. The reason is quite simple: he is quite likely to be mafia but IF there are two mafias in the game his 3 votes can be useful for the town. If we lynch Qatol at this stage we lose that, also note how easily Qatol got his first votes to get lynched, and the profile from those players.
DT information on Qatol:
On May 01 2009 14:52 Incognito wrote: Goodies from a DT.
"only too see an uncomprehensable phrase before the tv exploded" IS a clue.
The "clumsiness" clue does not point to Qatol.
Enjoy.
@Ver: Thank you for your discussion of Mafia and your behavior analysis. I just wanted to mention that semioldguy has said he has had troubles relating to graduation, which is why he has been quiet. So, I do think we should give him the benefit of the doubt. Otherwise, I agree with your tiers of suspects.
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I'm not inactive, but I have been quiet since the last lynch. Since then, I've felt unqualified to say anything because my reasoning powers have proven to be too faulty to be trusted. I believe t_co's suspicion of me derives from my voting pattern, which he thinks looks suspiciously close to Qatol's. However, I've explained my reasoning for voting the way I have about seven or eight pages ago, and I can attest that I arrived at every decision for voting by myself on reasons that made sense to me at the time. In retrospect, this was clearly an extremely dumb course to follow.
Just because I'm a gullible townie, though, doesn't mean I should be killed. That would be a waste of a vigi hit or lynch when both are more crucial to us than ever.
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Couldn't have been worse than me. I still can't believe how all the signs were there, right in front of me, and I somehow managed to miss all of them. Like getting every answer wrong on a True/False portion of an exam; I could have answered all of them True or False and gotten more right.
Good game, all the same. The Mafia deserved this win.
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