Power Rank 08/04/2009

All the players besides Jaedong and Yarnc looked bad in one of their recent events. (Fantasy raped by fast pool twice in a row? Learn to defend early-game, please.... you can't always be the aggressor.) Maybe even Jaedong - I haven't seen Jaedong vs. Calm yet. But Calm looked bad against Luxury - and it's unlikely he would've looked any better against Jaedong had Jaedong not prioritized OSL.

1: Jaedong
2: Yarnc
3: Fantasy
4: Calm
5: Flash
6: Bisu
7: Iris
8: Kwanro

Kwanro might be higher for reaching MSL finals, but Kwanro vs. Iris was a sucky Bo5, in which both players looked pretty bad. I could see Yarnc/Fantasy/Calm placed in any order, but they seem like a lock for slots 2-4. KTY is very good, but he got screwed in the individual tournaments (bo5 against Iris right before PL finals, go.go & Zero with vicious surprise builds in the cheese round) so he's not playing any games. Though he's still the second best player in the world, he needs better results to justify a high placement.

Last two slots go to Sangho and Gosl[Flying] for race balance.

Last edit: 2009-08-22 01:00:19

My strategy is to fork people.

Hieros United States. August 22 2009 00:59. Posts 83

Profile #

On August 22 2009 00:48 johanes wrote:

Show nested quote +

i don't want to underestimate Fantasy's PR perforance but Bo5 isn't bunch of 1v1 stacked up together. Winning Bo5 is far more prestige as it says something about players quality AND mentality. Fantasy is great player, but does he haave what it takes to win something individually?

Firstly my claim wasn't that BoX were 1v1s stacked together, that was the claim about the PL matches, and was a rhetorical simplification that I am not overly committed to.

Secondly, that the individual leagues are more prestigious is not true anymore, or at least, it is not considered that way anymore in Korea. Fantasy delivered 2 excellent wins over Jaedong. Their battle in the first day alone was not only sensational but demonstrative of their caliber as players.

Assume then that Fantasy does not have the 1 or 2 spot in the next PR. Then who deserves it? Calm? Fantasy has been tested more in this past month than he has. Yes Calm did defeat Jaedong in JD's legendary ZvZ. But that does not change the fact that Fantasy dominated in the PL and up until his encounter with JD in the OSL, dominated there as well. Calm has done well in the MSL, but I just don't believe there is a strong enough case to be made that he usurps Fantasy. You said "Fantasy is great player, but does he have what it takes to win something individually?" but you could make that case for any other contender for the number 2 spot on the PR. Fantasy, at least, brought victory for his team in the PL. And say what you will, that is quite prestigious.

Edit: Unless you want to make the case that Flash should be 2. And love Flash though I may, I just don't see a strong enough case for him at the number 2 spot. 4-5 is where I think he belongs, hoping to see him higher soon.

Last edit: 2009-08-22 01:04:00

okum Austria. August 22 2009 01:04. Posts 5699

Profile Blog #

On August 22 2009 00:48 johanes wrote:

Show nested quote +

With Kwanros and Luxuries winning leagues left and right these days, what does it actually take to win something individually? ;-)

I was a Flash fan before it was cool | Coiner of "jangbang"

Nylan United States. August 22 2009 01:28. Posts 795

Profile Blog #

On August 22 2009 00:57 Severedevil wrote:
All the players besides Jaedong and Yarnc looked bad in one of their recent events. (Fantasy raped by fast pool twice in a row? Learn to defend early-game, please.... you can't always be the aggressor.) Maybe even Jaedong - I haven't seen Jaedong vs. Calm yet. But Calm looked bad against Luxury - and it's unlikely he would've looked any better against Jaedong had Jaedong not prioritized OSL.

1: Jaedong
2: Yarnc
3: Fantasy
4: Calm
5: Flash
6: Bisu
7: Iris
8: Kwanro

Kwanro might be higher for reaching MSL finals, but Kwanro vs. Iris was a sucky Bo5, in which both players looked pretty bad. I could see Yarnc/Fantasy/Calm placed in any order, but they seem like a lock for slots 2-4. KTY is very good, but he got screwed in the individual tournaments (bo5 against Iris right before PL finals, go.go & Zero with vicious surprise builds in the cheese round) so he's not playing any games. Though he's still the second best player in the world, he needs better results to justify a high placement.

Last two slots go to Sangho and Gosl[Flying] for race balance.

I'm so sick of that excuse. He got straight up outplayed.

BeSt/Pure/Canata/Calm - I believe in Doh Jae Wook

o[twist] United States. August 22 2009 01:30. Posts 4903

Profile #

I'm so sick of that excuse. He got straight up outplayed.

preparation is hugely important right now idk

Last edit: 2009-08-22 01:30:17

Hieros United States. August 22 2009 01:41. Posts 83

Profile #

On August 22 2009 01:30 o[twist] wrote:

Show nested quote +

preparation is hugely important right now idk

Maybe so. But for most of us, how the players spend their time preparing falls squarely in the realm of pure speculation, aside from the often imprecise appraisals the player's themselves give of the time they spent preparing. That aside, even if we did know precisely how much preparation, sleep, etc. each player had before each match, how could we evaluate to what extent it was, in the case of JD v Calm, preparation and to what extent was it other factors?

Even JD himself stated that players are becoming more finely attuned to his style of play and his strategies. And while I have no doubt that JD will come up with more brilliant, mindblowing ways to win in ZvZ in the future, people have been less intimidated of JD's ZvZ as of late and so have been able to perform better against him, it would seem. Calm capitalized on this at the perfect moment. Do I think that JD is a far superior ZvZ than Calm? Well, yes. But some, most notably Calm and Effort, have finally found a hole in the seemingly impenetrable JvZ. As such, speculations on preparation aside, they should be praised for it.

o[twist] United States. August 22 2009 01:56. Posts 4903

Profile #

if preparation wasn't a factor we wouldn't count certain tournaments to be more important than others. similarly when a player is active in multiple tournaments it makes sense to think about which ones they're actually preparing for. if we put too much weight on calm's 3-1 vs. jaedong we also have to put a lot of weight on calm's 0-2 vs. luxury

Hieros United States. August 22 2009 02:03. Posts 83

Profile #

On August 22 2009 01:56 o[twist] wrote:
if preparation wasn't a factor we wouldn't count certain tournaments to be more important than others. similarly when a player is active in multiple tournaments it makes sense to think about which ones they're actually preparing for. if we put too much weight on calm's 3-1 vs. jaedong we also have to put a lot of weight on calm's 0-2 vs. luxury

I'm not saying preparation is not a factor. I'm saying that to use it in assessing a player's performance is fraught with difficulties. Sure, it makes sense to consider preparation to an extent. But there was a time when JD's ZvZ seemed completely untouchable, seemingly notwithstanding any sort of preparation. I don't think anyone would contend that now.

Of course a lot of this speculation will probably be answered by JD's performance tomorrow. That will offer us a case of JD's ZvZ once again with full preparation. But I'm not so sure we can say unequivocally that JD would have won his series vs. Calm if he did not have other things to prepare for just yet. Tomorrow may change that.

Nylan United States. August 22 2009 02:31. Posts 795

Profile Blog #

And even still, Yarnc and Calm are very different players. Even if Yarnc can't outsmart him, Calm very much did.

BeSt/Pure/Canata/Calm - I believe in Doh Jae Wook

Orbifold United States. August 22 2009 03:29. Posts 1922

Profile #

On August 22 2009 01:41 Hieros wrote:

Show nested quote +

This is a really important point, and if we could keep it in mind our discussion of players would be much more intelligent. Speculating as to a player's inner condition which we know nothing about is like attributing things to magic.

It's different when we actually have information, for instance Jaedong's exhaustion related hospital stay.

Allow me to reintroduce myself...

o[twist] United States. August 22 2009 04:44. Posts 4903

Profile #

On August 22 2009 02:03 Hieros wrote:

Show nested quote +

you didn't respond to the hypothetical in my post: if we overvalue calm's series against jaedong, why not his series against luxury

Hieros United States. August 22 2009 05:12. Posts 83

Profile #

On August 22 2009 04:44 o[twist] wrote:

Show nested quote +

you didn't respond to the hypothetical in my post: if we overvalue calm's series against jaedong, why not his series against luxury

I didn't think I had to. My only claim is a negative one: that it would be rash to ascribe preparation as the sole factor in JD's victory over Calm due to epistemological difficulties. That it is was a factor, no one denies. The extent to which we can evaluate either the JD/Calm matches or the Calm/Luxury matches based on factors like preparation depends on the reliability of the information we have about that juxtaposed with solid instances of how prepared they were and how they fared in other cases. But more often than not, I would think, the latter condition is not met.

Put succinctly, that flukes happen in games of BW no one denies: consider the JD v Bisu GOM Special G5, or JD cancelling his spire against Bisu earlier in the PL. But beyond such blatant cases prudence dictates that simply ascribing preparation as the sole or even the main reason why someone like JD lost would be to presuppose knowledge I don't think we have. We have a little more in this case, given that JD admitted how tired he was, that he was sick, etc., but that only becomes meaningful if we have access to how he performs generally when sick vs. well or prepared vs unprepared and that sort of information for other players.

I am not, again, disputing that preparation makes a difference in these games. It absolutely, absolutely, does. But when we ask ourselves to what extent it makes a difference, oftentimes the best answer is simply "We don't know", in many cases. I hope that made some sense.

Or put differently, a win is first of all a win. In order to say something like "it's a fluke" we would need some evidence of that. But Calm defeated JD in a Bo5, and has been playing quite well. Same was true when Effort defeated JD in Gom (which Effort was not preparing for, if I recall correctly, and nor JD as much- again speculation rules the day here). I just don't think we can fairly say that, if JD had whatever amount of prep time needed, he would have had a surefire win against Calm- it simply flies in the face that Calm is playing well and JD, much to my chagrin, sometimes loses.

Believe me, my first reaction to JD losing to Calm was "what a joke". But looking at Calm's performance overall, it's a harder claim to make. That's all I'm saying- let's be hesitant to call a victory anything less than that until further evidence, which often never comes.

Last edit: 2009-08-22 05:19:42

Nylan United States. August 22 2009 05:15. Posts 795

Profile Blog #

And the less we definitively know, the less we can use it in arguments for or against certain results and values.

BeSt/Pure/Canata/Calm - I believe in Doh Jae Wook

o[twist] United States. August 22 2009 05:33. Posts 4903

Profile #

contrary to your posts there are SOME things we know
- some tournaments are generally assumed to be more important than others
- the time in between two events is not unlimited, therefore players must choose what they need to practice for
- players tend to be relatively predictable and often quite public in terms of what they choose to prepare for (e.g. iris gom, effort pl)

thus we can definitely at least take into account tournament prestige and public statements regarding practice time in order to consider preparation in making PR.

Hieros United States. August 22 2009 05:42. Posts 83

Profile #

On August 22 2009 05:33 o[twist] wrote:
contrary to your posts there are SOME things we know
- some tournaments are generally assumed to be more important than others
- the time in between two events is not unlimited, therefore players must choose what they need to practice for
- players tend to be relatively predictable and often quite public in terms of what they choose to prepare for (e.g. iris gom, effort pl)

thus we can definitely at least take into account tournament prestige and public statements regarding practice time in order to consider preparation in making PR.

I'm not saying we can't do it to an extent, again, I am simply highlighting difficulties, not suggesting impossibilities.

To highlight my point, consider the following thought experiment:
Say the no. 1 on the PR became very, very, ill for one month. Even if he was completely dominating the scene, would it be fair to keep him the highest on the PR (or for that matter on the PR at all), even though he wasn't producing any wins?

That's admittedly an extreme case. But it brings forth a certain point: there comes a time when, despite whatever factors we can consider, (and my point is not that we shouldn't consider them, but be careful when we do) evaluating players is a results-based procedure. In their series Calm produced the results, JD didn't. We can speculate until we're blue in the face about if they had an isolated Bo100 on an island paradise that was perfect to prepare in who would win most games. But the facts of the matter don't allow that, so yes, we consider some factors more than others, judging players is first and foremost about results.

And of course this can be complicated too, for not all results are commensurable. The OSL finals will have something to say about this.

For the record, I think JD deserves the 1 or 2 spot on the PR this next month. I'm just against these extremely speculative claims about things we only see through a glass darkly.

Last edit: 2009-08-22 05:44:55

o[twist] United States. August 22 2009 05:58. Posts 4903

Profile #

my issue is about a case not where a player is sick and not performing anywhere but where a player is obviously focusing on one event rather than another event and performing at different levels in the two events for reasons of preparation

Hieros United States. August 22 2009 06:05. Posts 83

Profile #

On August 22 2009 05:58 o[twist] wrote:
my issue is about a case not where a player is sick and not performing anywhere but where a player is obviously focusing on one event rather than another event and performing at different levels in the two events for reasons of preparation

I understand this; my quarrel is not with the fact that he, say JD, performs better based on events he is prepared for vs. those he is not (that seems obviously true), rather, that difference in performance considered, would it have any impact on the results of those games, for example in the Calm series.

And my answer is simply that we don't know. That he plays better or worse on a given day based on his level of preparation is a given, but he plays against an opponent, and we can't say definitively the extent to which of a role the difference in preparation makes in determining who wins and who loses. That's all I'm claiming, and I don't think it's a terribly contentious one either.

In summary:

I'm not saying preparation makes no difference.

I am saying it's hard to gauge exactly how much of a win or loss is determined solely on the difference between the two players' preparations.

Last edit: 2009-08-22 06:08:12

o[twist] United States. August 22 2009 06:16. Posts 4903

Profile #

well, in calm's case it's the difference between beating jaedong and losing to luxury
in jaedong's case it's the difference between beating fantasy and losing to calm

AzureEye United States. August 22 2009 11:36. Posts 1360