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Tour de France 2018 - July 7th to July 29th
What you need to know + Show Spoiler +- The Yellow Jersey : Worn by the current leader of the race, represents general time classification
- The Green Jersey : Worn by the leader of the General points classification. A sprinters ranking.
- The Polka-Dot Jersey : The jersey affiliated with the Best Climber Classification. More commonly known as "The King of The Mountains." It is very rare though that the best climber actually wins this classification though.
- The White Jersey : For the Best Young Rider of the race. Basically the yellow jersey for 25 y.o. and younger. It is possible to win both the Yellow and White Jersey.
- This Tour de France is the 105th edition, it is 3540km long with 21 stages, and two rest days
Contenders
General Classification + Show Spoiler + General Info for new followers: GC stands for general classification and refers to riders who are competing to win the overall tour. Generally too be a good GC rider one must be a respectable individual time trialist (a solo ride against the clock), as well as someone with very good power to weight ratio, as that determines how fast one climbs. Almost every bike tour features many summit finishes, meaning that the last climb of a summit finish is a very important opportunity to gain time on rivals.
For those unfamiliar, in a time trial, which tends to be one flatter routes, bigger guys that put out more raw power (watts) are generally favored over lighter riders that might have better power/weight (w/kg) ratio. The reason for is that weight is a small penalty on flat ground, with the big player being air resistance. At typical time trial speeds, well over 90% of your power is spent overcoming air resistance. With good position on the bike, a riders drag coefficient does not become significantly larger even if the rider is a little bigger...which means that with similar amounts of drag the rider putting out more raw power will go faster.
More info forthcoming
Green Jersey + Show Spoiler + Peter Sagan - Don't think I need to say anything else. Sagan doesn't crash, and no else is going to get the jersey from him. Honestly, there are a realistic 11-12 stages in which Sagan *could* win. 7 are likely to be bunch sprints, which usually Sagan just lacks the top speed to beat the absolute fast men of the Tour, but there are more question marks surrounding those guys than usual. The other stages are all punchy stages which Sagan is normally a threat on. That said, he'll have some seriously stuff competition in both Philip Gilbert and Greg van Avermaet, who has been on the form of his life thus far.
For this new to the Tour, the green jersey is basically the "sprinters" point competition. Only a handful of guys can actually win overall, but there are other different styles of riding and most of these riders target wins on individual days (stages). The sprinters jersey awards points for high stage finishes, and at some intermediate points in stages. Sagan is basically unbeatable here because he is a top 10 sprinter outright on a flat stage, but can get over some serious hills (but not long alpine climbs) that the other sprinters have no chance on. So Sagan does okay on flat sprint stages, and then mops up crazy points along all the other hilly or medium mountain type days.
Stage Winners + Show Spoiler +
Feel free to tell me to add or change something in the OP.
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Fantasy League!
This year teamliquid is doing a fantasy league run like last year over on velogames. Anyone is welcome, and encouraged, to join the team. Format is pretty simple, you get 100 pts to pick 8 riders: 2 GC/All Rounder guys, 1 climbers, 1 sprinter, 3 domestique/breakaway guys, and one wildcard. Points are scored for stage places, GC placings, Green Jersey standings, Mountains standings, top positions over all Cat 1 and HC climbs, and then some other small points for being in breaks and 'assisting' riders.
Details can be found on the website.
If you wish to join the team it's pretty simple:
1)Head to www.velogames.com 2)Create an account and make your team 3)Go to SignUp and enter our league code, 664666514 4) Hit submit
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Registered to the fantasy league. Gl and have fun everyone.
Makes watching way more entertaining.
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On July 04 2018 07:18 HolydaKing wrote:Registered to the fantasy league. Gl and have fun everyone. Makes watching way more entertaining.
Good choice. Looking forward to seeing everyone's team picks
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Salbutamol Superstars has joined the game.
Now Froome better be allowed to start lmao.
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On July 04 2018 15:50 Laurens wrote: Salbutamol Superstars has joined the game.
Now Froome better be allowed to start lmao.
He already is ASO said yesterday they now have no reason to bar him.
Still not sure what to think about the Froome case. I'll just throw my thoughts down for fun:
- Just a little odd how ASO said "No Froome" and then almost right away UCI goes "Froome is OK to go". Just a bit suspicious. Just a bit. If they at least released their statement and justification that would go a long ways.
- Would love to know the justification in general. My sense is that Froome probably woke up in the Vuelta, realized he was sick/not breathing well, freaked out and ended up taking more than he should have in a semi-panic. If this is the case, I think two years would have been ridiculous, but I do feel he should have been stripped of his Vuelta.
- If his defense was actually legiitmate and not a result of big money being thrown around, then all apolagies to Froome
- Not sure what to think of Froome overall. Take Sky being shady + salbutamol incident and it's not a good picture. Moreover, the fact that he has won 4 tours and 2 other GTs inherently makes me suspicious. If you put a gun to my head, I'd probably have to say I think Froome dopes in some manner. That said, I'm not in the "convinced Froome is a dirty cheater" camp. We just don't know how good people can be, and I don't doubt for a second that the legal, but still ethically shady, things Sky does certainly help him. Froome does not put out numbers or do things where you roll your eyes and go "no fucking way" the way you did 15 years ago watching Lance launch attacks averaging 7w/kg up alpine climbs at the end of 4 hour stages
- I like watching Froome race. I don't root for him, but he's a fantastic bike racer. If he was a convicted, clear doper I would feel differently but I'm a big one for innocent until proven guilty.
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Also signed up for the fantasy league. I spent too much time on it this year, but I'm feeling really good about it, gl all.
I think people were a bit biased with Froome because they don't like him, or wanted to see the cycling world shaken up a bit. At the end of the day, I think the decision is fine. I tend to agree with you that I'm pretty sure they do some kind of micro-doping, as some other teams, I don't think some severe punishment was appropriate here. Imo he shouldn't have been allowed to race for the duration of the investigation, and I also don't like how inhalers are so prevalent in the peloton.
My prediction for this TdF is that even though team sky has a brutally strong team, Chris Froome will bomb out, and Geraint or Bernal will get a podium for Sky.
As always, my Slovak pride shines through, and hoping for big things for Sagan even though he's had a disappointing post-classics season. I'd also be happy to see Kittel or Demare win a bit, but my prediction is it'll be a Sagan + Gaviria show all day long for the sprinters. Also, Cavendish wont win a single stage.
I miss the university days, where during the summer I wouldn't have classes and could wake up in the morning to watch TdF every day, but I'll still be watching as many highlights as there are on steephill.tv .
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On July 05 2018 13:53 FiWiFaKi wrote: Also signed up for the fantasy league. I spent too much time on it this year, but I'm feeling really good about it, gl all.
Hehe I'm excited. I like my team overall.
My prediction for this TdF is that even though team sky has a brutally strong team, Chris Froome will bomb out, and Geraint or Bernal will get a podium for Sky.
It depends on what you mean by bomb out. Providing no actual crashes, I think Froome will finish at a minimum top 3, but giving high odds to a podium. I'm about 50/50 on Froome winning. We've seen Quintana ride to a top 5 here after the Giro, and there are two differences here. Number one is Froome is much better, and number two is that there was an extra week to recover.
My big questions about Froome winning are:
1) What kind of shape is Landa going to be in? 2) What kind of shape is Quintana going to be in? 3) Will Porte stop having comical levels bad luck? 4) Will Adam Yates look anything like his brother in the giro?
Vintage Landa, Vintage Quintana, and Porte could all mount a legitimate challenge to a weakened Froome. Possibly so could Yates, as we saw that Simon was better than weakened Froome through the first part of the Giro. I don't really think any of the other guys whether that's Nibali, Bardet, Dumoulin (also Giro tired), etc. can realistically challenge even a weakened Froome.
The question is...how weakened will Froome be. Every other guy trying Giro-Tour double has looked like a shadow of their usual self, not really able to hang on long climbs and basically forced to be like Dumoulin and just ride threshold and hold on. Froome is better than all of those guys though, and they still were all in the running for Top 5-10 or better. He also had an extra week, which is absolutely worth something.
As to the bolded. Watch out for this guy. He is EXTREMELY good. McNulty rode 420w (68kg or so) for the penultimate climb at ToC, and Bernal put well over a minute into them over the last 1/3 of the climb. Same again with the Gibraltar climb. He was going over 13mph up a 10% grade the last 6 minutes, something like 7.5-8w/kg. He may not have the endurance to go for the tour yet, but the guy is insanely talented and just 21. Smashed Porte, Roglic and others are Romandie earlier in the year as well.
As always, my Slovak pride shines through, and hoping for big things for Sagan even though he's had a disappointing post-classics season. I'd also be happy to see Kittel or Demare win a bit, but my prediction is it'll be a Sagan + Gaviria show all day long for the sprinters. Also, Cavendish wont win a single stage.
I'm with you on Cav. His train isn't that great and he is past his prime. I'll eat crow if he does win a stage. Just don't think he is realistically fast enough any more.
Kittel will probably take a stage or two unless he gets in his head or something which can happen with him, but I'm definitely hoping for some solid Sagan + Gaviria action.
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Hey guys, nice to see new Tour thread. This tour has everything to be a fantastic race, with possibly the strongest startlist of recent times. There's so much to say, I'll share some thoughts based on what happened this year so far:
- I'm glad the Froome case is finished and that he was cleared. I'm definitly not his fan, but it strikes to me that being busted for a substance that has at best a residual doping effect, in the least important grand tour, on a fairly inocuos stage while being the leader of the race and knowing you are going to get tested makes 0 sense, period. I believe that the peloton is cleaner than ever, although I admit that some microdosing doping may occur. On the sport side, I don't think Froome will win this due to the amount of candidates that are fresh and appear to be in good shape, though his team is the strongest on paper. - Thomas doesn't seem to be a 3 week reacer, I predict he will fade same as other years (though he's had some bad luck sometimes). Bernal is such an incognit. Started the year pretty strong in TDU, then only lost to Valverde and Roglic, which were the 2 best 1 week racers this year, and they only beat him barely and relying on their key strenghts, uphill sprint for Valverde and itt for Roglic. - Movistar is in a weird spot. Landa will do his thing despite what he and his team say. Quintana has been low profile but seems to be doing good, though he hasn't really raced hard at all this season. Valverde supposedly is there to help, but Movistar tactics have always been bad with multiple leaders so I have no idea what to expect from this team, they can definitly win, but also disappoint on all levels. - Porte is the pinacle of bad luck and consistently being inconsistent. He has tremendous potential and I can see him podium and even winning if somehow he finds the 3 week consistency. His team is crazy strong for the ttt and flat stages but seem a bit weak on the mountains, which can be a negative factor for him. - Nibali is a pure racer, he can look weaker than his opponents and somehow still win. Can see him podium and even win, while attacking a lot. - Other notable mentions are Dumoulin, Roglic, Uran, Fuglsang, Zakarin, Daniel Martin and Yates, expect most to top 10 and maybe even someone sneak a podium, though its harder to see them win. - For the sprints the top 3 are Gaviria, Sagan and Groenewegen. Kittel and Cavendish have been a spectators so far and Greipel, Demare and Kristoff seem to be a step below the 3 I mentioned. - Excited for the Roubaix stage, hope it is very aggressively raced. It can turn give a huge advantage to some GC contenders. - The TTT will make the weaker team's leader lose quite a bit of time, though the stronger candidates all have good to great TTT squads.
Will do my fantasy team tomorrow, also curious about everyone's picks, gl to all.
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It's still wierd to me that Landa went to Movistar when he expressly left Sky because he wanted to lead GTs.
I still think Porte is a pretty clear "best of the rest" if Froome isn't on his game, especially given his TT credentials...if he can not crash or run afoul of his comically bad luck. If he doesn't crash or have some bizarre mechanical timeloss Porte will at a minimum podium and should contend for the win.
I forgot Roglic is here too, he's pretty good and a definitely podium threat. Valverde will probably do same as always and help a little in the mountains while grabbing a stage win or two.
I'm not sure they will, but I rather hope they turn Bernal lose on a stage or two to do his own thing...
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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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Due to a recent legal notice, entries into the current Fantasy Grand Tour game are currently suspended until further notice.
It is fair to say I am absolutely gutted about this turn of events, but do not want to comment further until the situation progresses.
At present it is looking unlikely that the current Fantasy Grand Tour game will go ahead as planned.
Yours in fantasy cycling, George
Is ASO actually going after 3rd party fantasy sites (Velogames) because they want everyone to use theirs?
Oh opps, I'm too late. I'm so sad about this.
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Ya, pretty lame. This little fantasy league was always surprisingly fun. Hope they can reach some sort of agreement but seems like ASO (presumably?) are just being dicks.
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Sagan only 2nd. I dunno the guy who won, but then again I only watch (some) Tour de France.
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Wow, can't believe the damage this stage already did. Quintana may very well be out of contention already. Quickstep on the other hand dominated the finish and Gaviria finished it off perfectly.
Edit: Ok, Quintana not totally out but lost 1:15. Froome, Porte (lol), Yates all lost 51s.
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On July 07 2018 22:42 HolydaKing wrote: Sagan only 2nd. I dunno the guy who won, but then again I only watch (some) Tour de France.
Pretty much as good as Sagan can ask for on a flat stage! At the moment Gaviria is far and away the best sprinter in the world.
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Porte wasn't in the crash (?) how did he lose that much??
And yeah Gaviria is looking beastly, he started wayyyy too early but it didn't matter at all lol
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On July 08 2018 01:18 FiWiFaKi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2018 22:42 HolydaKing wrote: Sagan only 2nd. I dunno the guy who won, but then again I only watch (some) Tour de France. Pretty much as good as Sagan can ask for on a flat stage! At the moment Gaviria is far and away the best sprinter in the world.
I dunno. Gaviria looked great outside Europe but that was weaker competition overall. He also has full QS backing, which is worth a lot. To me Gaviria looks like the best of the bunch, but not dominant. Vivani has looked impressive as well not backed by QS power.
2nd is great for Sagan who just isn't a pure sprinter.
On July 08 2018 02:11 Skynx wrote: Porte wasn't in the crash (?) how did he lose that much??
And yeah Gaviria is looking beastly, he started wayyyy too early but it didn't matter at all lol
Gaviria took about 11s to cross the line after he launched. At 40mph that should be roughly 200m, which isn't a terrible place to launch. Was is early? Yea I'd say so. But I wouldn't say it was ridiculously early either.
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