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On February 06 2019 11:27 JimmiC wrote: @nebuchad it is likely my bias that are making react perhaps to harsh. Who is the guy? And why should I believe him?
I'm always skeptical of someone who acts like he's got it all figured out and the rest of people are snowed, especially at this guys age. But perhaps I'm judging a book by the cover. Do you know his education level and is his knowledge based on some specific research or traveling to these places or something?
You shouldn't believe him. I don't know what's happening in Venezuela. I can't conceive of why you think you do, and I don't know why that belief makes you react in the way it does but it's just getting weird. Like I started to answer your first answer with the first few problems in it and then I was like what's the point even?
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On February 06 2019 11:48 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2019 11:27 JimmiC wrote: @nebuchad it is likely my bias that are making react perhaps to harsh. Who is the guy? And why should I believe him?
I'm always skeptical of someone who acts like he's got it all figured out and the rest of people are snowed, especially at this guys age. But perhaps I'm judging a book by the cover. Do you know his education level and is his knowledge based on some specific research or traveling to these places or something? You shouldn't believe him. I don't know what's happening in Venezuela. I can't conceive of why you think you do, and I don't know why that belief makes you react in the way it does but it's just getting weird. Like I started to answer your first answer with the first few problems in it and then I was like what's the point even?
Well I guess he is just a guy spouting conspiracy theories then. And then I'm OK with my reaction. If he was actually some super knowledgeable guy who had some insight I would feel foolish. But it seems like he is just getting his talking points from Maduro's propaganda machine (venezuelaanalysis.com listed among others.)
I was hoping based on your recommendation that there would be something behind it more than you agree with his politics.
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On February 06 2019 05:59 JimmiC wrote: Yes, but they should blame it on corruption. It is almost always an internal failure caused by the people at the top abusing their power. And those close to them doing the same. The authoritarian nature of almost all "socialist" governments causes this. Then why do other very corrupt countries not collapse like this? What's the difference between Venezuela and these countries according to you?
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I think it is a combo of the mass spending mixed with the corruption. And the social programs they started were expensive but then you multiply the costs by 3-4 times what it should and you have super expensive. The people stealing got used to it at high oil production and 110 dollar oil. As production fell ( stealing instead of investing in infrastucture) and iil prices fell. The corruption stayed the same.
Maduro has also super accelerated the inflation by constantly raising minimum wage while not addressing the issues. So every time he raises wages busineses raise prices to cover the costs.
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In sad news Maduro is blocking Aid to be delivered from countries that clearly support Guaido. It is sad that this has become so politicized. Maduro has long used food to control the populace and it appears that Guaido also wants to gain favor through their stomachs (and medicine). It is really too bad that they couldn't both at least agree to feed and provide medical care to the poor, which happens to be 87% of the people that are still there. At least this should help the millions that have escaped.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47143492
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It doesn't seem that mysterious to me. It seems like oil was a poison pill to them, and they failed to diversify or build up their domestic economy. Some other factors, like corruption, may have entered into it, but that's probably the main one.
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On February 07 2019 02:11 Jerubaal wrote: It doesn't seem that mysterious to me. It seems like oil was a poison pill to them, and they failed to diversify or build up their domestic economy. Some other factors, like corruption, may have entered into it, but that's probably the main one.
That doesn't cause a collapse this large though. Venezuela has been suffering from dutch disease for more than a century. They never collapsed this badly. Neither did any other oil producing country. Even Iraq didn't collapse like this while it's incredibly oil dependent, as corrupt as Venezuela and went through a war against IS. For me it's pretty clear it's socialist economic policy which exacerbated the crisis to such an extent. But I was also curious what he thought.
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On February 07 2019 03:03 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2019 02:11 Jerubaal wrote: It doesn't seem that mysterious to me. It seems like oil was a poison pill to them, and they failed to diversify or build up their domestic economy. Some other factors, like corruption, may have entered into it, but that's probably the main one.
That doesn't cause a collapse this large though. Venezuela has been suffering from dutch disease for more than a century. They never collapsed this badly. Neither did any other oil producing country. Even Iraq didn't collapse like this while it's incredibly oil dependent, as corrupt as Venezuela and went through a war against IS. For me it's pretty clear it's socialist economic policy which exacerbated the crisis to such an extent. But I was also curious what he thought. Let's play this sily oversimplification game, only countries with mass corruption and oil that are not aligned to the US get into this sort of humanitarian crisis. So it's pretty clear, US interference is why this happens.
By the way, there was an interview last sunday to Maduro from a spanish interviewer, and it was pretty good. It's in spanish, but i doubt it's subbed, i will try to see if i am wrong and post it
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On February 07 2019 03:03 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2019 02:11 Jerubaal wrote: It doesn't seem that mysterious to me. It seems like oil was a poison pill to them, and they failed to diversify or build up their domestic economy. Some other factors, like corruption, may have entered into it, but that's probably the main one.
That doesn't cause a collapse this large though. Venezuela has been suffering from dutch disease for more than a century. They never collapsed this badly. Neither did any other oil producing country. Even Iraq didn't collapse like this while it's incredibly oil dependent, as corrupt as Venezuela and went through a war against IS. For me it's pretty clear it's socialist economic policy which exacerbated the crisis to such an extent. But I was also curious what he thought.
I don't think it was so much a socialism thing as it was a put my friends/loyalist into important position thing. So Venezuela went through the double whammy of lowered production and much lower prices.
Venezuela is also more of a populist/narco/petro state than socialist. Maduro just uses socialism as shield. As pointed out by Neb's video about 80% of the populace works for private.
When the money coming in slows down to the degree it did, but the robbing of the public money does not slow down, you get into these huge issues. Plus everyone who know how to run anything even sort of effectively as fired and replaced with some one "loyal".
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