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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51300 Posts
Poll: Who AdvancesDark & Classic (16) 38% Trap & Classic (7) 17% Dark & TY (7) 17% TY & Classic (6) 14% Dark & Trap (5) 12% Trap & TY (1) 2% 42 total votes Your vote: Who Advances (Vote): Trap & Classic (Vote): Dark & TY (Vote): TY & Classic (Vote): Dark & Trap (Vote): Trap & TY (Vote): Dark & Classic
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Curious to see TY's form. Not really seeing a universe where Dark doesn't advance in a group with two Protoss, but stranger things have happened.
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China6271 Posts
Date in OP is wrong, should be May 30.
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Long time no see for TY but I think hes coming out in 2nd place with Dark in 1st.
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Dark & Classic are the obvious favourites, but I'm betting on Dark & Trap here, with Trap getting out first.
Dark > Classic (BARELY, and due to a misplay by Classic from a winning position in the final game) Trap > TY (but it looks really uncertain who the better player was) Trap > Dark (And everyone goes "Oh my god! Trap is looking incredible today." Tasteless claims that this is "the most X that I have ever seen", for some value of X.) Classic > TY (total stomp) Dark > Classic (Again, Classic looks better but somehow can't close it out. Everyone knows Dark is a great player but feels like Classic should have been the one to advance.)
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United States97245 Posts
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Trap getting out first is a lot less likely than Dear finishing first in Group B. At least Dear's PvZ is his best MU and he played it twice. Trap's PvT is trash and his chance vs either Classic or Dark is very slim.
This group is strong but very easy to predict. Will be pleasantly surprised if Dark or Classic does not advance, because I'm a TY fan.
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On May 30 2018 13:23 yangluphil wrote: Trap getting out first is a lot less likely than Dear finishing first in Group B. At least Dear's PvZ is his best MU and he played it twice. Trap's PvT is trash and his chance vs either Classic or Dark is very slim.
This group is strong but very easy to predict. Will be pleasantly surprised if Dark or Classic does not advance, because I'm a TY fan.
Idk. Personally, I went with TY beating him but that's me playing the long shot. In terms of recent stats, Trap holds the advantage in sample size and win percentage when it comes to PvT.
Also, despite Dark generally being far better in ZvP than Trap, when it comes to their head-to-head Trap seems to have his number for whatever reason. Even in LotV, Trap leads.
Their record
It's one of those weird head to heads, like aLive vs Scarlett.
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On May 30 2018 15:29 FrostedMiniWheats wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 13:23 yangluphil wrote: Trap getting out first is a lot less likely than Dear finishing first in Group B. At least Dear's PvZ is his best MU and he played it twice. Trap's PvT is trash and his chance vs either Classic or Dark is very slim.
This group is strong but very easy to predict. Will be pleasantly surprised if Dark or Classic does not advance, because I'm a TY fan. Idk. Personally, I went with TY beating him but that's me playing the long shot. In terms of recent stats, Trap holds the advantage in sample size and win percentage when it comes to PvT. Also, surprisingly, despite Dark generally being far better in ZvP than Trap, when it comes to their head-to-head Trap seems to have his number for whatever reason. Even in LotV, Trap leads. Their record It's one of those weird head to heads, like aLive vs Scarlett. Trap is an excellent PvZ player. It's by far his best MU. If not for his PvZ, trap would be just another Creator/Hurricane. Dark's ZvP is not as good as it once was in 2016. When it comes to late game I would still take Dark though.
In the previous patch, Trap did not have a decent sample size in offline matches versus korean Terran. In the only four applicable series, he beat Ryung, who is a horrible TvP player and ALive, who is slumping real hard this year. In the other two, he lost to Gumiho and Bogus. No real surprise here. He had one online h2h versus TY, which he lost.
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my prediction: dark wins the gsl. and he deserves it the most
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I guess I cheer for the Protosses
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A fantastic group, and I can't watch it due to crummy hotel internet. I'm rooting for the hipster pick, Trap, but I don't think he makes it out.
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On May 30 2018 18:51 ZigguratOfUr wrote: A fantastic group, and I can't watch it due to crummy hotel internet. I'm rooting for the hipster pick, Trap, but I don't think he makes it out. Trap has the Jin Air Coaching™ on his side though
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Wow, that build is powerful
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Interesting how this build made it from "the thing Zest does on NVS and gets nydused" to "Classic beats Dark comfortably"
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Hurr Durr he has air superiority, let me build a unit that gets countered by what he already has. Build a damn infestor, what the fuck?
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I love watching Classic and his prepared builds.
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On May 30 2018 18:53 LongShot27 wrote: Hurr Durr he has air superiority, let me build a unit that gets countered by what he already has. Build a damn infestor, what the fuck? Brilliant, make more fragile units that phoenices can pick up. Passive-aggressive coach LongShot on the case
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Czech Republic12115 Posts
On May 30 2018 18:53 LongShot27 wrote: Hurr Durr he has air superiority, let me build a unit that gets countered by what he already has. Build a damn infestor, what the fuck? Dark has a cruch on corruptors though. Isn't he the one who played ling bane corruptor?
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On May 30 2018 18:55 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 18:53 LongShot27 wrote: Hurr Durr he has air superiority, let me build a unit that gets countered by what he already has. Build a damn infestor, what the fuck? Dark has a cruch on corruptors though. Isn't he the one who played ling bane corruptor?
You ain't wrong
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ahhh this is good, Dark chosed Classic so I hope to see the protoss win
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On May 30 2018 18:54 Ej_ wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 18:53 LongShot27 wrote: Hurr Durr he has air superiority, let me build a unit that gets countered by what he already has. Build a damn infestor, what the fuck? Brilliant, make more fragile units that phoenices can pick up. Passive-aggressive coach LongShot on the case
he built corrupters against mass pheonix, a platinum level player knows not to do that
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On May 30 2018 18:57 LongShot27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 18:54 Ej_ wrote:On May 30 2018 18:53 LongShot27 wrote: Hurr Durr he has air superiority, let me build a unit that gets countered by what he already has. Build a damn infestor, what the fuck? Brilliant, make more fragile units that phoenices can pick up. Passive-aggressive coach LongShot on the case he built corrupters against mass pheonix, a platinum level player knows not to do that Maybe that's why they are stuck in platinum. Because they think they know better than Dark.
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Phoenixes are countered by Corruptors now?
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On May 30 2018 18:59 Heartland wrote: Phoenixes are countered by Corruptors now?
No
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On May 30 2018 18:53 LongShot27 wrote: Hurr Durr he has air superiority, let me build a unit that gets countered by what he already has. Build a damn infestor, what the fuck? Maybe in a world where fungal roots air units it would work, but we aren't living in that world.
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On May 30 2018 19:01 Durnuu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 18:53 LongShot27 wrote: Hurr Durr he has air superiority, let me build a unit that gets countered by what he already has. Build a damn infestor, what the fuck? Maybe in a world where fungal roots air units it would work, but we aren't living in that world.
one fungal on the pheonix clump and the corrupters actually kill them
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On May 30 2018 19:01 LongShot27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 19:01 Durnuu wrote:On May 30 2018 18:53 LongShot27 wrote: Hurr Durr he has air superiority, let me build a unit that gets countered by what he already has. Build a damn infestor, what the fuck? Maybe in a world where fungal roots air units it would work, but we aren't living in that world. one fungal on the pheonix clump and the corrupters actually kill them You want Dark to pull all that gas out of his ass? You can't realistically gamble it all on one fungal.
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It's so depressing to fight these battles sometimes.
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On May 30 2018 19:02 Durnuu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 19:01 LongShot27 wrote:On May 30 2018 19:01 Durnuu wrote:On May 30 2018 18:53 LongShot27 wrote: Hurr Durr he has air superiority, let me build a unit that gets countered by what he already has. Build a damn infestor, what the fuck? Maybe in a world where fungal roots air units it would work, but we aren't living in that world. one fungal on the pheonix clump and the corrupters actually kill them You want Dark to pull all that gas out of his ass? You can't realistically gamble it all on one fungal.
It's better than getting rolled by an attack where you don't kill a single tech unit
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Artosis Protoss bias can be very annoying. This guy needs to start playing Random for fucks sake.
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how do you even hold that
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On May 30 2018 19:04 Cuce wrote: how do you even hold that Immortals with blink, duh
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Oh shit, this might be the game winning move.
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On May 30 2018 19:04 Cuce wrote: how do you even hold that Explaining that is a bannable offence so let's just chalk it down to the map.
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On May 30 2018 19:03 Aunvilgodess wrote: Artosis Protoss bias can be very annoying. This guy needs to start playing Random for fucks sake.
Artosis and Protoss bias in the same sentence....you have no idea how much I'm laughing at that
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that kind of multitasking is a way greater skill than picking good builds.
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Wow, the balance saltiness in this LR thread is up to pre-2015 levels
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swarm hosts against that many immortals and archons. Dark just killed himself
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Dark asking to lose by making Swarm Hosts
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Man talk about a mismatch
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Yes Classic ! You shouldn't have take him Dark
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Well, I apologize for counting Classic out against Dark.
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That game was sick, who has the poll? That's a 4 or 5 star game for sure.
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Trap to win the group rofl?
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Great move picking Classic Dark
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I'd like to change my prediction to Classic 1st Trap 2nd
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Czech Republic12115 Posts
On May 30 2018 19:03 Aunvilgodess wrote: Artosis Protoss bias can be very annoying. This guy needs to start playing Random for fucks sake. He plays SC2? oO From the past casting I would say they play more BW, which would explain why they name everything with BW names
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On May 30 2018 19:12 Wintex wrote: Trap to win the group rofl?
If it comes down to Trap vs Classic I pick Classic. His PvP has looked super strong especially vs other Koreans.
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On May 30 2018 19:17 Vindicare605 wrote:If it comes down to Trap vs Classic I pick Classic. His PvP has looked super strong especially vs other Koreans.
Yeah, Classic should take this regardless of who he's up against in the winner's match. My predictions gettin' rekt.
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This match was the one I wasn't looking forward to. Trap has been killing it lately and he's JinAir but I want to see TY make waves again. Somehow I want them both to win but I know that won't happen.
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The boys are back in town.
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Czech Republic12115 Posts
I love this, yesterday I raed in some thread here that Terran has to scout the whole map and can die to a hidden DT shrine and now a Protoss dies to a hidden factory, I wonder what meme will TY kill next
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United States32432 Posts
Trap loses to the thing ggemini hates the most in the world
ggemini IN SHAMBLES
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wtf libs aren't tech lab units at the starport? rofl
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That was some sick lategame TvP by TY
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On May 30 2018 19:40 Wintex wrote: wtf libs aren't tech lab units at the starport? rofl
Reactored libs mmmmmm.....
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idk why Tastosis were talking about TY not doing Banshees due to supply block, while it was clearly due to seeing the Stargate
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TY manages to take so many bases in the late game.
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TvP is actually looking like a legitemately playable match up right now :o
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Dark vs Trap and Classic vs TY : really great match incoming
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Ranged lib harass is difficult to deal with.
Probably have to have a small phoenix squad lategame for that shit
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good to see TY doing well, I really don't like liberators though..
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Group stage TY has returned
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Every single time TY is underestimated and Bogus overestimated
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The only group stage TY has ever failed in LoTV was GSL ro16 last season.
If he wins today he'll be 16-1 in LoTV groups.
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One thing I like about Classic's PvT is how he stays active and does mini harasses and contains. As opposed to other Protoss in PvT where they just try to turtle and defend.
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Impossible to pick this Ro16 hahaha!
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Was hoping TY would teach the way to punish the 3rd base
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This is really feeling group of deathy now. I believe! TY looking stronger than I thought.
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If Trap can beat Dark I think TY gets out?
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Damn I just came and I was expecting dark to save us from a 5/8 Ro8 but at least TY has a chance to give us 2 terrans instead of just Maru :D
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TY has evolved. He now gets reverse swept in group stages.
What a champion.
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On May 30 2018 20:38 Fango wrote: If Trap can beat Dark I think TY gets out?
Pretty big if. How fucking stupid would you feel as Dark if you went out first in this group?
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On May 30 2018 20:46 neutralrobot wrote:Pretty big if. How fucking stupid would you feel as Dark if you went out first in this group? Not really a big if, Trap has a good record against Dark.
Classic picked Trap in group selections specifically to get revenge on Dark for picking him.
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WTF Dark what are you doing whith those banelings
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Is it me or korean zergs seem to be lost against toss?
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Dark waited too long, he had a big advantage when Trap donated those two Immortals, should've pounced on him.
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On May 30 2018 20:52 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 20:46 neutralrobot wrote:On May 30 2018 20:38 Fango wrote: If Trap can beat Dark I think TY gets out? Pretty big if. How fucking stupid would you feel as Dark if you went out first in this group? Not really a big if, Trap has a good record against Dark. Classic picked Trap in group selections specifically to get revenge on Dark for picking him.
Hmm... Yeah, fair enough. I say "big if" out of respect for Dark and the fact that he had to have prepared hard for protoss here.
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I never understood the reluctance of pros to build static defesne when needed be. The "you don't want to waste resources and instead defend with units" doesn't really works when you lose 20 workers to 2 oracles.
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Classic carrying through the group on his Mighty Chin
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Looks like Trap is about to extend that record vs Dark. Crazy
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On May 30 2018 21:12 Fango wrote: It's Rain right? I think so, dec 2015, not long after MC and well.. Life
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>Get cocky in group selections >Make group of death >Lose 0-4
This isn't even the first time this has happened
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On May 30 2018 21:12 Fango wrote: It's Rain right?
Rain if you only count SC2 retirements yeah, but if you don't since he's still playing BW and ASL, then it's Roro.
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Rogue running unopposed as the best Zerg it looks like
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2 more opponents to beat for TY
Trap and Rematch Curse
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On May 30 2018 21:20 Kommander wrote:Rain if you only count SC2 retirements yeah, but if you don't since he's still playing BW and ASL, then it's Roro. Now that's a name I haven't read in a while. BL/Infestor age, never forget.
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dark just rolled over, pretty underwhelming
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On May 30 2018 21:21 virpi wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 21:20 Kommander wrote:On May 30 2018 21:12 Fango wrote: It's Rain right? Rain if you only count SC2 retirements yeah, but if you don't since he's still playing BW and ASL, then it's Roro. Now that's a name I haven't read in a while. BL/Infestor age, never forget.
Wait... I was thinking Bomber. Did he not win a GSL? For some reason, I thought he had before he won that global finals. But it looks like my bad memory strikes again?
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Dark should've picked a Terran, then again hindsight is 20/20 and he probably thought Classic's historically wonky PvZ would work in his favor.
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On May 30 2018 21:26 neutralrobot wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 21:21 virpi wrote:On May 30 2018 21:20 Kommander wrote:On May 30 2018 21:12 Fango wrote: It's Rain right? Rain if you only count SC2 retirements yeah, but if you don't since he's still playing BW and ASL, then it's Roro. Now that's a name I haven't read in a while. BL/Infestor age, never forget. Wait... I was thinking Bomber. Did he not win a GSL? For some reason, I thought he had before he won that global finals. But it looks like my bad memory strikes again?
Nah, he's not a champ, even though he could play like one from time to time. It's why Bomber's Law is a thing
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On May 30 2018 21:20 Kommander wrote:Rain if you only count SC2 retirements yeah, but if you don't since he's still playing BW and ASL, then it's Roro. Technically Tasteless said the most recent champ who isn't currently in Code S
So it's Rain, then Life (unless this is officially removed?), then Soulkey, then everyone who won before that
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I mean its not wrong, when was the last time we had 6 of a race in a Ro8?
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Oh Trap, why haven't you vetoed Backwater by now....
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Trap is about to get punked xD
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Gemini must be monkaS-ing pretty damn hard by now
User was warned for this post.
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Oh man I remember that season, I didn't watch TvT for months after.
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We had 5 toss in some 2014 seasons. But we haven't had six of one race in a top 8 since GomTvT in 2011
Not in GSL at least, there are probably foreigner tournaments with 8 zergs or something
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Fireworks for TY's ro8 entrance
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I like how the drop Trap had the most time to react to was the one that killed all the probes
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Trapu got dominated easily
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RIP the six toss dream
At least TY gets his group stage record going again
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That blink into marauders though
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yay TY
also nice forward blink
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the forward blink would've been good if there were no reinforcements, a risky move that many would take
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Nevermind, TY just saved us.
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On May 30 2018 21:41 Fango wrote: We had 5 toss in some 2014 seasons. But we haven't had six of one race in a top 8 since GomTvT in 2011
Not in GSL at least, there are probably foreigner tournaments with 8 zergs or something WCS Montreal last year had 6 zerg in the ro8.
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foreign zergs are just better
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On May 30 2018 21:53 Penev wrote: foreign zergs are just better Didn't Nerchio or someone try to claim this as the actual reason back in 2016 or something?
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On May 30 2018 21:55 Fango wrote:Didn't Nerchio or someone try to claim this as the actual reason back in 2016 or something? sounds like a thing king Artur would say, you know, the truth
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On May 30 2018 21:55 Fango wrote:Didn't Nerchio or someone try to claim this as the actual reason back in 2016 or something? korean zergs lol
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Pretty disappointing ZvP from Dark.
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On May 30 2018 21:58 Durnuu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 21:55 Fango wrote:On May 30 2018 21:53 Penev wrote: foreign zergs are just better Didn't Nerchio or someone try to claim this as the actual reason back in 2016 or something? korean zergs lol * korean zergs HAHAHA
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“dear weakest player. rip dear” -> advances first “dark wins this group ez. classic is garbage at pvz” -> goes 0-4
really makes you wonder how much game knowledge forum posters have
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On May 30 2018 22:22 Obamarauder wrote: “dear weakest player. rip dear” -> advances first “dark wins this group ez. classic is garbage at pvz” -> goes 0-4
really makes you wonder how much game knowledge forum posters have Are you saying that soO and Dark don't have much game knowledge when they selected Dear and Classic respectively for their groups?
Fans make predictions based on what we've seen in tournaments and maybe on streams. Past results, however, don't guarantee future results. If someone comes out with something new, someone has a bad day, or the stars just align, predictions can be made to look really dumb even if they were made based on the best available information.
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Australia18228 Posts
That makes 8 Ro16 finishes for Dark, closest is 6 for GuMiho, Trap, herO and INnoVation
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On May 30 2018 22:22 Obamarauder wrote: “dear weakest player. rip dear” -> advances first “dark wins this group ez. classic is garbage at pvz” -> goes 0-4
really makes you wonder how much game knowledge forum posters have Well considering Classic himself has admitted his PvZ is trash, Dark specifically chose players he's favoured against, the players themselves have similar opinions
Also Dear winning the group was an upset, by defintion that means him winning was unlikely.
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On May 30 2018 22:36 Inflicted wrote: That makes 8 Ro16 finishes for Dark, closest is 6 for GuMiho, Trap, herO and INnoVation As a Dark fan it really gets annoying. If he played group selections the same way guys like herO, ByuN etc do he'd have made countless ro8s by now
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United States97245 Posts
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On May 30 2018 23:28 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 22:36 Inflicted wrote: That makes 8 Ro16 finishes for Dark, closest is 6 for GuMiho, Trap, herO and INnoVation As a Dark fan it really gets annoying. If he played group selections the same way guys like herO, ByuN etc do he'd have made countless ro8s by now He would probably have more 2nd places than soO if he did that.
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This group was a dark trap
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On May 30 2018 21:49 IshinShishi wrote: the forward blink would've been good if there were no reinforcements, a risky move that many would take Trap had a revelation on the reinforcements.
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Rogue only Zerg in Ro8? Where is my money Ej?
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Easiest bet of my life. Except I thought TY would demolish the group (like he usually does) and he was about to but then the embodiment of protoss showed up and Chinned him.
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On May 30 2018 21:51 D-light wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2018 21:41 Fango wrote: We had 5 toss in some 2014 seasons. But we haven't had six of one race in a top 8 since GomTvT in 2011
Not in GSL at least, there are probably foreigner tournaments with 8 zergs or something WCS Montreal last year had 6 zerg in the ro8. But a Protoss AKA Neeb won so it didn't matter
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Wow, what a shock...I honestly didn't think Dark could lose to Protoss. That crow is giving me indigestion...
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TY and Classic both played amazing in this group. Would advise anyone who likes Starcraft to see the first three series of the group.
And I guess we got an upset? I mean, TY is not even a top-14 player in the world, right? So playing like this must be a huge surprise to everyone, right? /s
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On May 31 2018 09:07 Paljas wrote: Rogue only Zerg in Ro8? Where is my money Ej? send me a pm with paypal account?
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Bit sad about the LITERAL death of Zerg, but can't say I dislike seeing dark get rekt by classic after picking him.
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Maybe people will now finally realize how poorly the zerg race perform at the highest level, but i doubt it.
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On June 01 2018 00:08 Tyrhanius wrote: Maybe people will now finally realize how poorly the zerg race perform at the highest level, but i doubt it. Isn't his the first premier tournament in 10 months to have fewer than 3 zergs in the ro8?
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Yes, so they arent used to that.
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On June 01 2018 00:08 Tyrhanius wrote: Maybe people will now finally realize how poorly the zerg race perform at the highest level, but i doubt it. Both ZvT and ZvP are Zerg favored.
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On June 01 2018 04:20 Boggyb wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2018 00:08 Tyrhanius wrote: Maybe people will now finally realize how poorly the zerg race perform at the highest level, but i doubt it. Both ZvT and ZvP are Zerg favored. According to aligulac xd ?
Look which matches they add to do their stats :
A small sample :
Misato PL Z 3–2 T PL bleidd
GOLDMADMAN CN Z 2–0 P US BlueApril
TY KR T 2–0 P KR Gyulzzing
Dark KR Z 2–0 P UA Lisandro
Ryung KR T 2–0 Z CN Ganxieni
danran CN Z 0–2 Z KR Rogue
Solar KR Z 2–0 P KR 퇴근
Impact KR Z 2–0 P CN Firefly
Arctur RU T 1–0 Z CH Cammelot
Keiras CZ Z 1–0 P UK Floru etc...
from such a great tournaments : "Diamonds Are Not Forever Invitational #1", "Kung Fu Cup Weekly 2018 ", " Alpha SC2 Team League Season 11 Euro Pro Group A Houkago Tea Team vs Romandy Gaming Academy", Proxy Tempest EU Open #135 Ro32", etc... and they mix that with GSL, olimoleague, like it's relevant...
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What's the evidence of Zerg being underpowered?
Maru is miles above Solar at the moment and Zest mind gamed Solar and hit him with a new build. soO choked hard against Dear. I haven't actually watched soO INnoVation, but ZvT has historically been soO's weakest matchup, so that's not a surprise. Dark played like pure trash against Classic and Trap. Rogue choked hard against Dear.
That's a super small sample size and there are a lot better reasons for the results other than imbalance.
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On June 01 2018 05:16 Tyrhanius wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2018 04:20 Boggyb wrote:On June 01 2018 00:08 Tyrhanius wrote: Maybe people will now finally realize how poorly the zerg race perform at the highest level, but i doubt it. Both ZvT and ZvP are Zerg favored. According to aligulac xd ? Look which matches they add to do their stats : A small sample : Misato PL Z 3–2 T PL bleidd GOLDMADMAN CN Z 2–0 P US BlueApril TY KR T 2–0 P KR Gyulzzing Dark KR Z 2–0 P UA Lisandro Ryung KR T 2–0 Z CN Ganxieni danran CN Z 0–2 Z KR Rogue Solar KR Z 2–0 P KR 퇴근 Impact KR Z 2–0 P CN Firefly Arctur RU T 1–0 Z CH Cammelot Keiras CZ Z 1–0 P UK Floru etc... from such a great tournaments : "Diamonds Are Not Forever Invitational #1", "Kung Fu Cup Weekly 2018 ", " Alpha SC2 Team League Season 11 Euro Pro Group A Houkago Tea Team vs Romandy Gaming Academy", Proxy Tempest EU Open #135 Ro32", etc... and they mix that with GSL, olimoleague, like it's relevant... Including matches with large skill disparities push winrates towards 50% because the probability of pairing two players with widely differing skill levels is symmetric with regards to race, assuming a similar skill distribution across races. So if Aligulac winrates are close to 50% that doesn't necessarily indicate that the game is balanced because of the noisy data, but for the same reason larger deviations are a good indicator of imbalance because if you stripped out all the mismatched games the deviation would be even larger.
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On June 01 2018 06:15 Athenau wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2018 05:16 Tyrhanius wrote:On June 01 2018 04:20 Boggyb wrote:On June 01 2018 00:08 Tyrhanius wrote: Maybe people will now finally realize how poorly the zerg race perform at the highest level, but i doubt it. Both ZvT and ZvP are Zerg favored. According to aligulac xd ? Look which matches they add to do their stats : A small sample : Misato PL Z 3–2 T PL bleidd GOLDMADMAN CN Z 2–0 P US BlueApril TY KR T 2–0 P KR Gyulzzing Dark KR Z 2–0 P UA Lisandro Ryung KR T 2–0 Z CN Ganxieni danran CN Z 0–2 Z KR Rogue Solar KR Z 2–0 P KR 퇴근 Impact KR Z 2–0 P CN Firefly Arctur RU T 1–0 Z CH Cammelot Keiras CZ Z 1–0 P UK Floru etc... from such a great tournaments : "Diamonds Are Not Forever Invitational #1", "Kung Fu Cup Weekly 2018 ", " Alpha SC2 Team League Season 11 Euro Pro Group A Houkago Tea Team vs Romandy Gaming Academy", Proxy Tempest EU Open #135 Ro32", etc... and they mix that with GSL, olimoleague, like it's relevant... Including matches with large skill disparities push winrates towards 50% because the probability of pairing two players with widely differing skill levels is symmetric with regards to race, assuming a similar skill distribution across races. So if Aligulac winrates are close to 50% that doesn't necessarily indicate that the game is balanced because of the noisy data, but for the same reason larger deviations are a good indicator of imbalance because if you stripped out all the mismatched games the deviation would be even larger. Which doesn't work, because the region are locked for tournaments.
The probabity of a zerg foreign to meet TY on a tournament is really low, while the probablility of a terran foreigners encounters Serral is higher.
And there is many more tournaments on EU than on KOR. Some tournaments have BO1 qualifier, some BO3. It really hard to prove here that the number of games is enough to homogenize all the bias.
Your hypothesis is the for all games the sum of all difference between MMR of T-Z=DeltaT is only = 0 to 200. I really doubt, it's true, and a fortiori that it was true for all reports.
And actually you suppose 45% is different than 50%, which isn't sure.
And the problem is it doesn't match the reality, if you see some 65% on TvZ on a tournament while aligulac says 45%, ever aligulac is wrong and fails to show the real state of balance, ever his stat have a confidence interval like 45% +/-20% and it's meaningless to use it.
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Which doesn't work, because the region are locked for tournaments.
The probabity of a zerg foreign to meet TY on a tournament is really low, while the probablility of a terran foreigners encounters Serral is higher. Region lock doesn't apply to online tournaments, which is where you'll find the largest skill mismatches. And the same effect holds within a region anyway--assuming similar distributions of skill it's no more likely for a 90th percentile EU Terran to play a 10th percentile EU Zerg than the other way around.
Your hypothesis is the for all games the sum of all difference between MMR of T-Z=DeltaT is only = 0 to 200. I really doubt, it's true, and a fortiori that it was true for all reports.
No, that's not my hypothesis.
And the problem is it doesn't match the reality, if you see some 65% on TvZ on a tournament while aligulac says 45%, ever aligulac is wrong and fails to show the real state of balance, ever his stat have a confidence interval like 45% +/-20% and it's meaningless to use it. Why would you expect the global tournament winrates to be an estimator of an individual tournament's winrates? That's...not how it works. The sample here is tournament games recorded by Aligulac. If anything, you'd expect the Aligulac winrates to be estimators of winrates across all tournament games played. The sample statistic is an estimator of the population parameter not the other way around.
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juicyjames
United States3815 Posts
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On June 01 2018 13:50 juicyjames wrote: Anything recommended?
Yes, first three series were great. Both Classic-Dark, TY-Trap, and Classic-TY.
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