The Group Selections is a highlight of every GSL season. A deep tournament run hinges on having the right opponent at the right time, and the pros do their best to maneuver themselves into the best positions possible. One wrong choice and the whole campaign could crumble before it even starts. There are also plenty of laughs to be had, as the players indulge in a convoluted dance of compliments, trash talk, and truly confusing logic.
There are many ways to approach the selections. Some players, such as PartinG, have gone in with the explicit goal of sowing chaos, assembling a Group of Death. More often, players take the path of herO, quietly attempting to assemble the easiest possible quartet.
There may not be any games going on, but it could only be considered a missed opportunity if I didn’t take this opportunity to critique the players on something other than their multitasking, mechanics, and my personal bias. I’ve decided to grade the four seed-holders on how they performed in the draft, as they looked to pave their roads to the quarterfinals.
Granted, they played very little part in the proceedings beyond their initial pick. But why should that stop me? If someone drops a penny off the Empire State Building, they’re the only one to blame if it hits the sidewalk, ricochets into a taxi’s windshield, and causes a twenty car pile-up that makes 10,000 people late for work. It’s all about who got the ball rolling.
THE RULES • The four top-ranked players from 2017 are seeded into separate groups (A-D-C-B order) • First four picks are made in order of seeding (#1 seed gets 1st pick, #2 seed gets 2nd pick, etc.) • Remaining picks in "snake draft" order starting from Group D • After all picks are made, #1 seed can swap any two non-seeded players
INnoVation couldn’t have done any better. Going in, everyone knew who INnoVation was taking with his first pick, and he snatched Leenock off the board before anyone else got a chance. INnoVation is 14-3 in lifetime matches against Leenock and has only lost three games to him since 2015 (he has won 23 times). It’s as much of a slam dunk as you’ll ever see in Korean StarCraft II.
Taking the weakest player with the first pick is easy, though. INnoVation had to wait for seven players to pass by before seeing who else he'd face. Leenock decided to go with Zest, a choice which should have left INnoVation satisfied. Although Zest has enjoyed a resurgence post-BlizzCon resurgence, he’s been the model of inconsistency. Regardless of what other people say about PvT, Zest has managed to drop matches to ByuN, aLive, TY and even Forte.
Just as everyone assumed INnoVation would pick Leenock, they were also certain he would exercise his swap privilege as the #1 overall seed to bring Scarlett to his group. INnoVation has lost a few matches against Scarlett in the past, but he came out on top in their only previous meeting in GSL. He also beat her 10-1 in an ONPOONG event a little more than a year ago.
As it turns out, a silver tongue was all that was required. INnoVation convinced Zest to use his own pick to bring Scarlett to the group, so the duo might advance together after beating up on the two Zerg weaklings. Leenock protested, pleading to Zest that he should use his pick to pressure INnoVation instead. Alas, Zest was deaf to his former teammate's cries and went along with INnoVation's plan. Zest scooped up Scarlett to round out the group, preserving INnoVation’s swap-privilege.
At this point, INnoVation could have used his swap to replace Zest with an even easier opponent. Instead, INnoVation made the shrewd move of setting up his quarterfinal match instead. GSL’s fixed seeding makes it so Group A players must face Group B players in the quarterfinals (A1 vs B2, A2 vs B1). Knowing this, INnoVation used his swap to send away Group B’s sole Protoss player Dear, ensuring he would not face a Protoss opponent in the quarterfinals.
It makes perfect sense. INnoVation is supremely confident in his TvT and TvZ, but fears TvP as a matchup where he might be upset by an inferior player. In that case, it’s much better to tolerate ONE Protoss in his RO16 group (where he has insurance in the form of the two weakest Zergs remaining), if he can guarantee he will not face Protoss in a quarterfinal elimination match. While all the other players are playing RTS, INnoVation is playing grand strategy.
If INnoVation finishes first, he’s looking at the second place finisher from Group B as his next opponent. A mirror matchup against one of the Terrans or a pairing against soO (who has recently been hapless in ZvT) would be vastly preferable given Dark is the other option. Even if that were the case, INnoVation is 11-4 in games against Zerg since the new year and has to fancy his chances.
There’s a saying about the best laid plans of mice and men…
It all started off so well. soO was the fourth to pick, but he still managed to get his dream opponent in Dear. soO has been terrible against Dear over the course of his career, but he notched his first win against him the IEM Katowice qualifiers less than a month ago. soO’s form against Protoss in 2018 (5-1 in matches) made this the obvious selection. Things were looking even rosier when Dear inexplicably chose Dark (Dear is 2-11 against Dark since December), adding another favorable opponent to soO’s group. There was still a round of picks left, but soO must have been licking his lips at the prospect of playing his two favored matchups in the Ro16.
With only three players left, Dark selected TY to round out the group. But fear not! Dark’s 29-14 lifetime record against TY would have eased soO’s worries, allowing him to dream of a path out of the RO16 that didn’t involve facing TY at all. Then INnoVation came in and stomped all over soO’s garden.
Switching Dear and aLive tore up any scenarios soO might have drawn up in his head, forcing him to defeat at least one Terran in order to advance. In 2018, soO is a combined 20-11 against Protoss and Zerg. In the same period, he is 7-5 against Terran. That might not seem so bad, but those wins came against Sinner, Forte and MajOr. soO has been struggling immensely against Terran on stream, and has to be positively sick at the prospect of facing INnoVation in the quarterfinals should he somehow manage to escape an already challenging group in second place. soO’s goal can’t be to merely advance—he need to go 2-0 if he wants to avoid a death sentence in the quarterfinals.
GuMiho started the whole process off in a rather strange way. He had the third pick, but for some reason used it on the hottest player in StarCraft II. Classic is 32-6 in matches against all races since BlizzCon and 10-1 versus Terran. Meanwhile, GuMiho doesn’t even have a 50% win-rate against Protoss since the 4.0 patch (36-38 in games, 14-14 in matches). What’s even worse is that many of those wins have come against players like Nice, JackO, Tesla and the dreaded omgabanana. There’s no way to rationalize it, really. GuMiho invited disaster from the start.
Classic decided to make things easier on GuMiho by picking a mutually beneficial opponent in aLive. GuMiho is 24-8 in the Terran mirror in the last two months (10-3 in matches) and has won ten of his last twelve meetings against the mYinsanity Terran. aLive proceeded to select Maru as his opponent, an addition which must have pleased GuMiho very much given his TvT form (not to mention the fact that Maru had lost two macros games to the lowly KeeN a few hours early). GuMiho appeared bound for the losers’ match, but TvT could still light his way to the quarterfinals.
At least, until INnoVation had his say.
aLive and Dear swapped places, shifting GuMiho’s forecast from a pair of blissful mirrors to a possible 0-2 at the hands of Protoss. GuMiho is guaranteed to face at least one Korean Protoss in the Ro16, and he has to beat at least one to reach the quarterfinals. If GuMiho reaches the quarterfinals at all, he will have to face yet another Protoss opponent from the all-Protoss Group D. No one is quite sure how the latest balance patch will affect the matches, but if something doesn’t change drastically, GuMiho is a dead man walking.
Get ready for five thrilling matches of a-moving archons and possibly a guest appearance by phoenix vs phoenix.
Maybe it’s not all that bad given the star power of the combatants, but Stats had to have expected things would turn out differently when he used his #2 overall pick on the relatively easy Trap. It seemed like Stats was going with the “weakest overall opponent” draft philosophy, because his personal record against Protoss is a rather poor 22-26 since his BlizzCon flop. However, he did score a victory over Classic in last Saturday’s round of 32 group, so it’s possible he feels he’s turned a corner in PvP.
Things got a bit trickier when Trap selected herO as the third player in the group. Stats holds a slight edge in that head-to-head matchup, but herO has won their last three meetings dating back to October 2017. Three Protosses in a four-player group is already pretty bad, but Stats looked positively dismayed as aLive snatched up Maru with his pick, sending sOs over to Group D and making it an all-Protoss affair. The fact that Stats will only have to prepare against Protoss is poor consolation given the fact that sOs has gotten the better of him historically (16-12 with the most prominent defeat coming in the semifinals of 2017 GSL Season 3). sOs’ PvP has been slightly underwhelming since the turn of the calendar (9-6 in games with a 2-1 loss to Stats), but there’s a reason he was the last man standing: no one wants to deal with his bulls***.
If Stats somehow braves the Group of Death Protoss, he could very well be staring down another PvP in the round of 8, as Classic has to be considered the favorite in Group C. Winning one PvP is hard enough, but he might have to slog through four of them if he wants to end up in the greener pastures of the semifinals.
As things look, Inno will cruise to the Ro8 comfortably, and it's on Zest to fix his PvZ. If he does, that group shouldn't be too hard for him either. If there's a Leenock vs Scarlett match, we should get Wolf involved so he can cast the hair.
soO's group is gonna be pretty spectacular, can't ever underestimate TY or Dark and aLive is a wild card. I think there's actually a pretty realistic scenario for every player to win the group depending on how the first matches go, so I hope we get to see some cool stuff. And also TY to advance so he can get reverse swept in the Ro8 some more.
Classic's odds of advancing in that group, I'd rate probably 98%, I think it's mostly a question of who else advances. And that actually could be anyone, because Dear is the most amazingly inconsistent player ever.
Group D is the ultimate trainwreck. No carrier vs carrier please.
Technically speaking the swap helped Maru, as now he has a chance with fighting with "just" TvP instead of his abysmal TvT(or he learns how to cyclone )
I love it when SoS and Hero are in the same group! I can't wait to see the protoss debauchery that's gonna go on. I can only hope we get some sort of in-base cannon rushes into carriers lol.
On February 01 2018 06:45 DieuCure wrote: Group B is insane, the two best zergs + the best (or 2nd for INno s fanboysany sane person since INno is the best ) terran of LoTV. This group is more ro4 than ro16.
Classic and INno are the lucky guys here.
Also bye bye Stats and Gumiho.
Fixed that for you
Good recap Mizenhauer !
i don't know if the group D will be enjoyable; the B will probably be the best to watch.
Hoping for : INno/ notLeenock TY/soO Classic/ whatever Stats/notherO
On February 01 2018 06:49 ZigguratOfUr wrote: I'm hoping one of the players in the Protoss group will bust out disruptors against opponents that have inexplicably forgotten about phoenixes.
this sounds more like MCanning fan fic than a GSL RO 16 group
An article about group nomination? I personally think it's a really interesting part of the GSL that frequently gets glossed over, so it's good to shine some light on the process. Especially since this one produced Group D(umpster fire).
The analysis is on point, though I think you gave Inno a little too much credit and criticized soO a bit too much (is this really Mizenhauer writing? ). Being the first seed is a huge advantage, so while Inno did play his hand very well, he still started the game with pocket aces. Similarly, soO had no way of knowing who exactly Inno would swap, so while the end result is obviously subpar for him, blaming him for everything doesn't quite fit.
As for Gumiho and Stats, I think their grades are fitting. Gumiho picking any Protoss would be questionable, and picking the one in the best form is downright bizarre. Like soO, he can't be held accountable for Inno's swap, but unlike soO he does take the blame for choosing Classic in the first place. Stats, on the other hand, bears sole responsibility for taking his strong opening position and not only squandering it, but completely inverting his situation into what is more or less the worst possible group he could've asked for.
I think while Inno should be very happy with his group and the ro8 overall, I think he may be underestimating his opponents a bit. Yes, he has fared well against Dark, soO, and TY, but at the same time, they are also the best non-Protoss he could face in the ro8.
I was hoping that Scarlett would get a three zerg group, as any matchup other than ZvZ doesn't seem very favourable.
On February 01 2018 11:02 KGssv2 wrote: Stats...what have you done...(perhaps I could blame Trap?)
Side note: I kinda wish Classic ended up in Group D so it would be all protoss and all sharing same surname 'Kim'.
Then you just made a group of death even deadly (or probably the deadest ever considering the randomness of PvP), all those "Kim" are finalist level player as they are the best Protoss atm. Instead of seeing which Kim is best Kim, I want to see a lot of them in Ro.8 at least, so thank god one Kim is missing here.
On February 01 2018 09:53 Fango wrote: Inno has such an easy route to the ro4. Only maybe Dark can stop him? But then Dark would have to get 2nd in his group (unlikely)
Group B seems like the closest but the matches look quite straight forward. soO can't ZvT and TY can't TvDark
edit: ez bracket
I'm thinking Inno zest Dark soO Classic dear sOs trap
On February 01 2018 09:53 Fango wrote: Inno has such an easy route to the ro4. Only maybe Dark can stop him? But then Dark would have to get 2nd in his group (unlikely)
Group B seems like the closest but the matches look quite straight forward. soO can't ZvT and TY can't TvDark
edit: ez bracket
I'm thinking Inno zest Dark soO Classic dear sOs trap
Inno > soO Trap > Classic Dark > Zest sOs > Dear
Inno > Trap Dark < sOs
sOs > Inno
Has GSL ever had the same two finalists back-to-back?
On February 01 2018 09:53 Fango wrote: Inno has such an easy route to the ro4. Only maybe Dark can stop him? But then Dark would have to get 2nd in his group (unlikely)
Group B seems like the closest but the matches look quite straight forward. soO can't ZvT and TY can't TvDark
edit: ez bracket
I'm thinking Inno zest Dark soO Classic dear sOs trap
On February 01 2018 09:53 Fango wrote: Inno has such an easy route to the ro4. Only maybe Dark can stop him? But then Dark would have to get 2nd in his group (unlikely)
Group B seems like the closest but the matches look quite straight forward. soO can't ZvT and TY can't TvDark
edit: ez bracket
I'm thinking Inno zest Dark soO Classic dear sOs trap
Inno > soO Trap > Classic Dark > Zest sOs > Dear
Inno > Trap Dark < sOs
sOs > Inno
Has GSL ever had the same two finalists back-to-back?
On February 01 2018 09:53 Fango wrote: Inno has such an easy route to the ro4. Only maybe Dark can stop him? But then Dark would have to get 2nd in his group (unlikely)
Group B seems like the closest but the matches look quite straight forward. soO can't ZvT and TY can't TvDark
edit: ez bracket
I'm thinking Inno zest Dark soO Classic dear sOs trap
Inno > soO Trap > Classic Dark > Zest sOs > Dear
Inno > Trap Dark < sOs
sOs > Inno
Wow no Stats. Rude.
Stats will win every tournament this year starting with gsl season 2. Until then...meh
Great coverage! Really enjoyed the read. It's the first time i understand the format of the group nomination! I really like the groups, especially group b and c. Im not sure if i will watch group d cuz of obvious reasons
Now this is the real deal. I don't think there was such a deep analysis of the selection since the glorious Mvp heist. It might be all completely unrelated to what went through the players' heads, but it is fun nevertheless!
I think Gumiho doesn't care too much about an easy group. He wants to play strong opponents. I agree with him, that it doesn't matter too much how strong your group is as you will face tough opponents later on anyways if you win.
I don't see him advancing, but if he masteres pvp, maybe he can get very far.
On February 01 2018 21:27 Fango wrote: Am I the only one that things D isn't the group of death? B and C are harder imo
no way about C... for B it`s arguable but at the same time alive doesn`t look as strong as any protoss from group D
Classic, Dear, and Maru are all looking in really good form right now. When in good form all three are championship contenders. Gumiho is not to be underrated either given how much he upset last year.
In group D only sOs and Stats are potential champions imo. People are overrating the group because it's all toss
On February 01 2018 21:27 Fango wrote: Am I the only one that things D isn't the group of death? B and C are harder imo
no way about C... for B it`s arguable but at the same time alive doesn`t look as strong as any protoss from group D
Classic, Dear, and Maru are all looking in really good form right now. When in good form all three are championship contenders. Gumiho is not to be underrated either given how much he upset last year.
In group D only sOs and Stats are potential champions imo. People are overrating the group because it's all toss
Maru is not in great form. He wins against small fry and loses to a lot of notable players in the past couple of months.
Classic is very good, and Dear is decent. I can't really speak for Gumiho.
herO is in quite good form recently, Stats is in decent form, and sOs is always a threat.
Stats is about equal with Classic, sOs and herO are better than Dear and Gumiho, and Trap is worse though perhaps in better form than Maru.
On February 01 2018 21:27 Fango wrote: Am I the only one that things D isn't the group of death? B and C are harder imo
no way about C... for B it`s arguable but at the same time alive doesn`t look as strong as any protoss from group D
Classic, Dear, and Maru are all looking in really good form right now. When in good form all three are championship contenders. Gumiho is not to be underrated either given how much he upset last year.
In group D only sOs and Stats are potential champions imo. People are overrating the group because it's all toss
Maru is not in great form. He wins against small fry and loses to a lot of notable players in the past couple of months.
Classic is very good, and Dear is decent. I can't really speak for Gumiho.
herO is in quite good form recently, Stats is in decent form, and sOs is always a threat.
Stats is about equal with Classic, sOs and herO are better than Dear and Gumiho, and Trap is worse though perhaps in better form than Maru.
On February 01 2018 21:27 Fango wrote: Am I the only one that things D isn't the group of death? B and C are harder imo
no way about C... for B it`s arguable but at the same time alive doesn`t look as strong as any protoss from group D
Classic, Dear, and Maru are all looking in really good form right now. When in good form all three are championship contenders. Gumiho is not to be underrated either given how much he upset last year.
In group D only sOs and Stats are potential champions imo. People are overrating the group because it's all toss
that`s not overrating that`s respecting the names all this toss have more titles and strong tournament runs than all other squads in the groups. plus dear doesn`t look like a reigning crown player anymore despite his decent results at the start of the season, gumiho is too unpredictable and maru is actually in bad form right now he tossed up the tongues because his performance at the Katowice quali but even with that at the end he failed it and proceeding struggles in his GSL group. only Classic looks like a devastation machine right now but it still didn`t stop him to conceding first place in the group to Stats
On February 01 2018 21:27 Fango wrote: Am I the only one that things D isn't the group of death? B and C are harder imo
no way about C... for B it`s arguable but at the same time alive doesn`t look as strong as any protoss from group D
Classic, Dear, and Maru are all looking in really good form right now. When in good form all three are championship contenders. Gumiho is not to be underrated either given how much he upset last year.
In group D only sOs and Stats are potential champions imo. People are overrating the group because it's all toss
Maru is not in great form. He wins against small fry and loses to a lot of notable players in the past couple of months.
Classic is very good, and Dear is decent. I can't really speak for Gumiho.
herO is in quite good form recently, Stats is in decent form, and sOs is always a threat.
Stats is about equal with Classic, sOs and herO are better than Dear and Gumiho, and Trap is worse though perhaps in better form than Maru.
Hell no. Classic the best toss in the world right now. Dear isn't far behind either. Both of them are looking better than Stats or herO (those two may have better results over the past year but haven't done anything on the new patch). Maru is also in very good form against Z and P right now. In the IEM qualifiers he looked like a top 2 terran.
The only contender for the trophy in group D is sOs.
On February 01 2018 21:27 Fango wrote: Am I the only one that things D isn't the group of death? B and C are harder imo
no way about C... for B it`s arguable but at the same time alive doesn`t look as strong as any protoss from group D
Classic, Dear, and Maru are all looking in really good form right now. When in good form all three are championship contenders. Gumiho is not to be underrated either given how much he upset last year.
In group D only sOs and Stats are potential champions imo. People are overrating the group because it's all toss
Maru is not in great form. He wins against small fry and loses to a lot of notable players in the past couple of months.
Classic is very good, and Dear is decent. I can't really speak for Gumiho.
herO is in quite good form recently, Stats is in decent form, and sOs is always a threat.
Stats is about equal with Classic, sOs and herO are better than Dear and Gumiho, and Trap is worse though perhaps in better form than Maru.
Hell no. Classic the best toss in the world right now. Dear isn't far behind either. Both of them are looking better than Stats or herO (those two may have better results over the past year but haven't done anything on the new patch). Maru is also in very good form against Z and P right now. In the IEM qualifiers he looked like a top 2 terran.
The only contender for the trophy in group D is sOs.
I know you dislike herO but he's looking excellent on the new patch as well.
On February 02 2018 03:29 Just_a_Moth wrote: Honestly I haven't watched Starcraft 2 in a long time, but I want to watch group D cause I love sOs and all his bullshit.
One viewer for Group D confirmed. I repeat, one viewer for Group D.
The broadcast of Five Thrilling Matches of A-Moving Archons and Possibly a Guest Appearance by Phoenix vs Phoenix will not be completely ignored!
On February 02 2018 03:29 Just_a_Moth wrote: Honestly I haven't watched Starcraft 2 in a long time, but I want to watch group D cause I love sOs and all his bullshit.
One viewer for Group D confirmed. I repeat, one viewer for Group D.
The broadcast of Five Thrilling Matches of A-Moving Archons and Possibly a Guest Appearance by Phoenix vs Phoenix will not be completely ignored!
Hey don't speek to fast I'm sure sOs will find a way to squeeze somme good old proxy Shield bateries-stalker-void ray all in vs herO
On February 02 2018 03:29 Just_a_Moth wrote: Honestly I haven't watched Starcraft 2 in a long time, but I want to watch group D cause I love sOs and all his bullshit.
One viewer for Group D confirmed. I repeat, one viewer for Group D.
The broadcast of Five Thrilling Matches of A-Moving Archons and Possibly a Guest Appearance by Phoenix vs Phoenix will not be completely ignored!
I will take PvP over TvT, ZvZ every second of every day and at least half the time over ZvT.
TvT cyclone wars are way less interesting than all of the ludicrous and hilarious ways that PvP devolves. I'd be rather shocked if in total there were more than 5 games from that group that make it to the 12 min mark (and I have to hedge that bet only so high because Classic and Stats together have had some pretty big macro games).
On February 02 2018 09:31 KaiserCommander wrote: Well, at least group D will not be a depressing shitfest since we will finally know who is the best Protoss right now...
Classic's not in group D. Also PvP's a rather poor indicator for overall form.
On February 01 2018 21:27 Fango wrote: Am I the only one that things D isn't the group of death? B and C are harder imo
no way about C... for B it`s arguable but at the same time alive doesn`t look as strong as any protoss from group D
Classic, Dear, and Maru are all looking in really good form right now. When in good form all three are championship contenders. Gumiho is not to be underrated either given how much he upset last year.
In group D only sOs and Stats are potential champions imo. People are overrating the group because it's all toss
Maru is not in great form. He wins against small fry and loses to a lot of notable players in the past couple of months.
Classic is very good, and Dear is decent. I can't really speak for Gumiho.
herO is in quite good form recently, Stats is in decent form, and sOs is always a threat.
Stats is about equal with Classic, sOs and herO are better than Dear and Gumiho, and Trap is worse though perhaps in better form than Maru.
On February 02 2018 10:14 The_Red_Viper wrote: The additional filter of only looking at games vs south koreans is warranted here i think (i did so for classic btw), if we do that:
herO farmed some foreigners and even low lvl ones this year
Though i agree that herO in general looks on point, classic is still a bit ahead.
Ahh. good catch. But 81% match score vs 76%. I don't think I'd split hairs either way haha. Still. For sure, herO seems to have PvT on lockdown better than anyone else. Wish he and Zest were swapped lol.
It is not a good thing when I see top protosses in the same group. This means that they will train mainly PvP matches for a month. Only! I think that has never happened before in the GSL history, am I right?
On a first thought I thought that the group with Dark and TY is pretty bad, but now I think that they have a huge chance of getting out. I don't think that soO's gonna make it this time. Innovation seems secured. The big question for Ro16 is: Could Scarlett surprise us all and how well is prepared Zest? Because still Zest is out of his top shape.
Group C is also clear to me. Maru is out of class right now. Classic played well but he didn't show such a self - confidence on the interview. I hope his PvT is still as it was last year - when it was actually his only strong weapon. I really want Classic to be on the top, but I am not sure he is ready yet. Dear is gonna break Maru into peaces!
I feel like this whole process does more bad than good for the competition. I mean it s super cool to see the mind games and the personal picks and all that, and it certainly must be amazing for those who follow it and are invested in the players at a personal level, but i think the vast majority of fans just want to see the games, and possibly learn a thing or two. I dont think i overreach if i say that most fans want to see as many non mirror MU-s as possible, and the best players making it the farthest. So the semifinals and finals should be the highest level of SC2 possible.
Now as is, the process heavily incentivizes quite the opposite, especially the swap mechanic.
As a participant, it is in your best interest to try to make your rivals fall due to unfavorable matchups, hard opponents and unfavorable group composition in general
Furthermore, it s in everyone s personal best interest to assure NOT to have a 3 race group, so you dont have to prepare for 3 matchups.
And to be sure, 0 of the 4 groups have all 3 of the races, ended up with a full Porotoss group, from which let s say the 2 best PvPers make it out (or who knows given the volatility of mirrors) but probably not the best overall protosses.
We have 4 zergs, and very likely only one will make it through, quite possibly eliminating another zerg in the final match of the group.
I think we would get a lot less mirror MUs, if it was a simpler seeding process.
On February 02 2018 17:58 Veluvian wrote: It is not a good thing when I see top protosses in the same group. This means that they will train mainly PvP matches for a month. Only! I think that has never happened before in the GSL history, am I right?
On a first thought I thought that the group with Dark and TY is pretty bad, but now I think that they have a huge chance of getting out. I don't think that soO's gonna make it this time. Innovation seems secured. The big question for Ro16 is: Could Scarlett surprise us all and how well is prepared Zest? Because still Zest is out of his top shape.
Group C is also clear to me. Maru is out of class right now. Classic played well but he didn't show such a self - confidence on the interview. I hope his PvT is still as it was last year - when it was actually his only strong weapon. I really want Classic to be on the top, but I am not sure he is ready yet. Dear is gonna break Maru into peaces!
It's happened before. In 2014 Season 1 there was an all-Protoss group, 2012 Season 5 an all-Zerg group, and I'm pretty sure that there were a few all terran groups in 2011.
On February 02 2018 17:58 Veluvian wrote: It is not a good thing when I see top protosses in the same group. This means that they will train mainly PvP matches for a month. Only! I think that has never happened before in the GSL history, am I right?
On a first thought I thought that the group with Dark and TY is pretty bad, but now I think that they have a huge chance of getting out. I don't think that soO's gonna make it this time. Innovation seems secured. The big question for Ro16 is: Could Scarlett surprise us all and how well is prepared Zest? Because still Zest is out of his top shape.
Group C is also clear to me. Maru is out of class right now. Classic played well but he didn't show such a self - confidence on the interview. I hope his PvT is still as it was last year - when it was actually his only strong weapon. I really want Classic to be on the top, but I am not sure he is ready yet. Dear is gonna break Maru into peaces!
It's happened before. In 2014 Season 1 there was an all-Protoss group, 2012 Season 5 an all-Zerg group, and I'm pretty sure that there were a few all terran groups in 2011.
On February 02 2018 17:58 Veluvian wrote: It is not a good thing when I see top protosses in the same group. This means that they will train mainly PvP matches for a month. Only! I think that has never happened before in the GSL history, am I right?
On a first thought I thought that the group with Dark and TY is pretty bad, but now I think that they have a huge chance of getting out. I don't think that soO's gonna make it this time. Innovation seems secured. The big question for Ro16 is: Could Scarlett surprise us all and how well is prepared Zest? Because still Zest is out of his top shape.
Group C is also clear to me. Maru is out of class right now. Classic played well but he didn't show such a self - confidence on the interview. I hope his PvT is still as it was last year - when it was actually his only strong weapon. I really want Classic to be on the top, but I am not sure he is ready yet. Dear is gonna break Maru into peaces!
It's happened before. In 2014 Season 1 there was an all-Protoss group, 2012 Season 5 an all-Zerg group, and I'm pretty sure that there were a few all terran groups in 2011.
On February 01 2018 09:53 Fango wrote: Inno has such an easy route to the ro4. Only maybe Dark can stop him? But then Dark would have to get 2nd in his group (unlikely)
Group B seems like the closest but the matches look quite straight forward. soO can't ZvT and TY can't TvDark
edit: ez bracket
The thing I like when people does this is that you can realize which players wiki pages have you opened and which not
On February 02 2018 17:58 Veluvian wrote: It is not a good thing when I see top protosses in the same group. This means that they will train mainly PvP matches for a month. Only! I think that has never happened before in the GSL history, am I right?
On a first thought I thought that the group with Dark and TY is pretty bad, but now I think that they have a huge chance of getting out. I don't think that soO's gonna make it this time. Innovation seems secured. The big question for Ro16 is: Could Scarlett surprise us all and how well is prepared Zest? Because still Zest is out of his top shape.
Group C is also clear to me. Maru is out of class right now. Classic played well but he didn't show such a self - confidence on the interview. I hope his PvT is still as it was last year - when it was actually his only strong weapon. I really want Classic to be on the top, but I am not sure he is ready yet. Dear is gonna break Maru into peaces!
It's happened before. In 2014 Season 1 there was an all-Protoss group, 2012 Season 5 an all-Zerg group, and I'm pretty sure that there were a few all terran groups in 2011.
On February 02 2018 17:58 Veluvian wrote: It is not a good thing when I see top protosses in the same group. This means that they will train mainly PvP matches for a month. Only! I think that has never happened before in the GSL history, am I right?
On a first thought I thought that the group with Dark and TY is pretty bad, but now I think that they have a huge chance of getting out. I don't think that soO's gonna make it this time. Innovation seems secured. The big question for Ro16 is: Could Scarlett surprise us all and how well is prepared Zest? Because still Zest is out of his top shape.
Group C is also clear to me. Maru is out of class right now. Classic played well but he didn't show such a self - confidence on the interview. I hope his PvT is still as it was last year - when it was actually his only strong weapon. I really want Classic to be on the top, but I am not sure he is ready yet. Dear is gonna break Maru into peaces!
Maru's main weakness is his TvT though, in case his PvT will be stellar he can advance from the first place(I don't think Classic will lose his match against Gumi) or 2nd if Dear eliminates Gumi It's kinda funny - he needs both P players to have their PvT good enough to win against Gumi but bad enough to not win against Maru
On February 02 2018 18:06 Geo.Rion wrote: I feel like this whole process does more bad than good for the competition. I mean it s super cool to see the mind games and the personal picks and all that, and it certainly must be amazing for those who follow it and are invested in the players at a personal level, but i think the vast majority of fans just want to see the games, and possibly learn a thing or two. I dont think i overreach if i say that most fans want to see as many non mirror MU-s as possible, and the best players making it the farthest. So the semifinals and finals should be the highest level of SC2 possible.
Now as is, the process heavily incentivizes quite the opposite, especially the swap mechanic.
As a participant, it is in your best interest to try to make your rivals fall due to unfavorable matchups, hard opponents and unfavorable group composition in general
Furthermore, it s in everyone s personal best interest to assure NOT to have a 3 race group, so you dont have to prepare for 3 matchups.
And to be sure, 0 of the 4 groups have all 3 of the races, ended up with a full Porotoss group, from which let s say the 2 best PvPers make it out (or who knows given the volatility of mirrors) but probably not the best overall protosses.
We have 4 zergs, and very likely only one will make it through, quite possibly eliminating another zerg in the final match of the group.
I think we would get a lot less mirror MUs, if it was a simpler seeding process.
It is only the swap mechanic that makes the process not favouring the best games. Everyone wants to win, which makes them pick players that they think they'll win vs. The first ones that get to choose are the 4 top seeded players, the ones who should be best. The last ones to be picked are the best of the non-seeded players. Each group will have one top seed (best in official matches) and one percieved great player (the last pick). Each group will also have one of the 4 easiest opponents (first pick). This means that each group has 2 top players and 1 bottom player + 1 other player. A drawing process would not make a better group. It would be too hard to make a structure that ensures this result and still allow chance to play a part.
It is not in every player's best interest to have as few races as possible in their group. Many players think it's easier to have a few builds and strategies per match up instead of training only one match up and needing 8 builds to not be countered in the long run.
You said that most fans want to 1) see the best players advance and 2) see non-mirror matches. With that in mind, I don't understand what you mean about the zergs. Either they are not the best players and get eliminated or they play a mirror game eliminating 1 and ensuring more race variety in the next stage.
To get rid of mirrors we need to race discriminate instead of skill discriminate. Instead of seeding the best players we would need to seed races. This would downplay one third of the current match ups. I think that is a terrible idea. We should not tell TvT specialist that their best match up is worth less and should only be a focus in the latest stages of play or in team leagues. Ryung, who had sub 50% wins in non TvT, but had more than 50% wins vs Maru, TY, INno, FlaSh etc. in 2015. Maru had 90% in TvT at the time (every loss was vs Ryung), TY had about 85%. Another thing to consider is what would happen in the zerg dominated eu region. If group stages spread all the zerg players as good as possible, more zergs would advance to later stages. This means that we would get almost all zerg after group stages. Non-zergs would almost always play vs zerg, eliminating TvP, TvT and PvP. I would not like to watch only half of the possible match ups (TvZ, PvZ and ZvZ).
On February 02 2018 20:05 kajtarp wrote: Underestimating soO can be a huge mistake guys. Remember in bo3 and bo5 he can beat anyone. Bo7 where he struggles..
On February 02 2018 20:05 kajtarp wrote: Underestimating soO can be a huge mistake guys. Remember in bo3 and bo5 he can beat anyone. Bo7 where he struggles..
He doesn't struggle in Bo7 either, when it's not a final.
On February 02 2018 20:05 kajtarp wrote: Underestimating soO can be a huge mistake guys. Remember in bo3 and bo5 he can beat anyone. Bo7 where he struggles..
He doesn't struggle in Bo7 either, when it's not a final.
On February 02 2018 20:05 kajtarp wrote: Underestimating soO can be a huge mistake guys. Remember in bo3 and bo5 he can beat anyone. Bo7 where he struggles..
He doesn't struggle in Bo7 either, when it's not a final.
On February 02 2018 20:05 kajtarp wrote: Underestimating soO can be a huge mistake guys. Remember in bo3 and bo5 he can beat anyone. Bo7 where he struggles..
He doesn't struggle in Bo7 either, when it's not a final.
Are there bo7 games outside finals?
yes, every gsl ro4 for last 5 years
Not in 2013 season 3 because Blizzard forced them to change Bo7 semis master race
On February 02 2018 20:05 kajtarp wrote: Underestimating soO can be a huge mistake guys. Remember in bo3 and bo5 he can beat anyone. Bo7 where he struggles..
He doesn't struggle in Bo7 either, when it's not a final.
Are there bo7 games outside finals?
yes, every gsl ro4 for last 5 years
Oh yes, you are right. How could i forgot? /facepalm. Still remember that glorious 4-0 win over Classic.
On February 02 2018 18:06 Geo.Rion wrote: I feel like this whole process does more bad than good for the competition. I mean it s super cool to see the mind games and the personal picks and all that, and it certainly must be amazing for those who follow it and are invested in the players at a personal level, but i think the vast majority of fans just want to see the games, and possibly learn a thing or two. I dont think i overreach if i say that most fans want to see as many non mirror MU-s as possible, and the best players making it the farthest. So the semifinals and finals should be the highest level of SC2 possible.
Now as is, the process heavily incentivizes quite the opposite, especially the swap mechanic.
As a participant, it is in your best interest to try to make your rivals fall due to unfavorable matchups, hard opponents and unfavorable group composition in general
Furthermore, it s in everyone s personal best interest to assure NOT to have a 3 race group, so you dont have to prepare for 3 matchups.
And to be sure, 0 of the 4 groups have all 3 of the races, ended up with a full Porotoss group, from which let s say the 2 best PvPers make it out (or who knows given the volatility of mirrors) but probably not the best overall protosses.
We have 4 zergs, and very likely only one will make it through, quite possibly eliminating another zerg in the final match of the group.
I think we would get a lot less mirror MUs, if it was a simpler seeding process.
I see what you mean, but more mirrors now mean fewer later, most likely. And Protoss assumed the plurality in this ro16. It's a bummer that we may not see herO advance to stomp face in later rounds, however.
Maru is so dead :|
maru is vapor. He did not look too great at all in ro32. Part of me wishes Byun were here instead. Though i wish both were in better form. RIP.