Marus mental state must be very strong right now. He's coming from a strong placing in Katowice, winning a wesg for lots of money and now his first GSL finals. Whatever he is doing, it's working!!
Stats on the other hand has something to prove. From first seed in 2017 to getting knocked out of the major tournaments on 2018 but still doing well in GSL.
Just in terms of perceived mental states, I'd say Maru has the upper hand by a long shot.
On another note, I think tvp is Marus worst matchup ATM, but still his TvP builds are freaking amazing. He's got a very unique style imo with fast reactor factory to deal w early game and a great eng 2nd 3rd rax and starport timings. I don't think Maru is going to loose a lot of early games and the longer a game goes the more I'd give it to Maru, despite the match up.