Code S RO16 - Group D Preview: TY, GuMiho, soO, Rogue
by Orlok
Saturday, Mar 09 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
IEM Katowice has come and gone, leaving a multitude of winners and losers in its wake. In GSL's Group D, the biggest winner of them all looks to build upon his success and wind Korea's grandest prize.
Whether it be due to meta shifts or plain bad luck, Terran's early 2019 success came to a screeching halt at IEM Katowice. TY was no exception. Swift and decisive moves gave him an easy road to the round of 16 in GSL Code S, but his run in IEM Katowice left a lot more to be desired. He may have been the last surviving Terran, and the only one to make it out of the group stages, but his RO12 playoff match against Solar ended in a crushing sweep. TY was able to keep some of the games close, but what will stick in the minds of Terran players around the world is the 0-3 scoreline.
It may be unfair to call TY disappointing after one bad outing—his 2018 resume placed him as the second best Terran in the world—but he's fallen short of lofty expectations. It's difficult to succeed in SC2, even without everyone nitpicking your every match, but TY must once again prove his quality if he is to advance from this group. His play is definitely top tier, but at IEM, he didn't display that razor-sharp edge of perfection we’ve come to expect from championship-class players.
Veteran Terran GuMiho stands at the edge of a precipice. With Maru and INnoVation delivering off-putting performances in Poland, GuMiho could have seized the spotlight and stood tall as the top Terran for the first time since 2017. Unfortunately, he joined INnoVation at the bottom of his RO24 group with losses to Rogue, Serral, Solar and Ragnarok. His losses against top-tier Zergs Rogue and Serral were understandable (and he put on quite the show vs Serral), but losses against Solar and Ragnarok—both eliminated in the Code S RO32—were less palatable for a Code S RO16 player. As more time passes with middling results, it’s dragging down GuMiho’s champion reputation. Though he remains a fan-favorite, he's spent a few seasons being treated as a relatively easy opponent by his peers during GSL group selections (though he's bloodied a fair share of noses in return). GuMiho hasn’t provided enough in terms of results to definitively shut up his doubters. A deep run in the GSL holds perhaps more than just monetary benefits for GuMiho. He needs it to dispel the notion that he is slipping into the mold of forgotten champions, who merely cashed in on the stars aligning for a single miracle.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there's a player in Group D who has completely reversed his career momentum. soO the protagonist of the ultimate tale of sorrow in Starcraft II, finally found his silver lining amid the stormy clouds of his career, winning a premiere title win after seven failed attempts. It can be argued that this chapter is the most emotional and impactful one in all of Starcraft II’s history, and soO will definitely be able to retire a happy man when the time comes. However, that time isn’t yet upon us. Sure, soO quenched his thirst for career-defining victory and put a fitting end to his saga as a Kong. But even with the IEM trophy in hand, there is still one nagging thing remaining in soO’s career: a GSL victory. The GSL is the league that forged soO’s legacy as one of the best and memorable players in the game, and it's unacceptable to our sense of StarCraft justice that he might never grasp the championship in that arena. With the end of one tale comes the beginning of another. Will soO can finally cash in his raincheck on becoming a GSL champion and fulfill another part of his destiny?
Coming back down to earth, we have another directionless player in Rogue. The defending champion of IEM Katowice came into this tournament with a clear swagger, brandishing his skill like a personal battle-standard. He had rare bravado at the GSL group nominations, brimming with confidence in his abilities and even calling out INnoVation. However, reality came to shoulder-check Rogue much faster then he anticipated. Despite keeping his word and crushing INnoVation, losses to Serral, GuMiho and Solar cut his tournament run short in the group stages. Losing to Serral? Understandable. Losing to Solar, who got whipped out of GSL by Bunny? Not so much. The current of tournament favorites underperforming at IEM swept Rogue away, and he’ll be looking to dry himself off and make up for that bad outing. The common mantra from IEM is that "one bad run doesn’t tell us a who a player is." But with so many players having bad outings, surely it must hold meaning for at least one of them? We'll be eager to see what kind of player Rogue reveals himself to be.
Predictions
Despite all the raw talent and championship pedigree present in this group, soO has all the momentum in the world to assure himself a first place finish out of this group. After all, if winning a tournament and removing the shackles of the Kong-line curse can’t elevate your motivation, nothing else can. Apart from soO, everyone else has a decent fighting chance to make it out. TY, GuMiho and Rogue may have all fallen short at IEM, but one slip up isn’t a large enough of a problem to remove their individual threat factors (although GuMiho perhaps needs to step up a bit more than the others). It’ll be an entertaining show, that’s for sure.
TY 2 > 1 GuMiho soO 2 > 0 Rogue TY 1 < 2 soO GuMiho 1 < 2 Rogue TY 1 < 2 Rogue
personally i think GuMiho gonna surprise and qualify along with soO. his playstyle can be quite wicked and hard to deal with unless you've made specific preparations...
On March 08 2019 23:13 Akio wrote: Heart says TY and soO but it's so hard to call soO's ZvT. I think Rogue's ZvT is the world's best so I can't see him not getting out of this group
I don't think Rogue has built a great case to have people consider his ZvT the world's best in a long ass time.
as i posted in the other thread i dont know if soo can make it out. rogue and gumiho both denied soo a championship in the past, so he'll have to overcome that trauma, and TY is a god. soo's best chance is if the rumors of terran sucking now are true, he should be able to defeat TY or gumiho. hoping he can avenge his blizzcon loss to rogue!!!!
On March 09 2019 01:46 ZigguratOfUr wrote: TY and GuMi will win and then we'll get more nonsensical rationalizing about terran being fundamentally better at preparation formats.
Clearly preparation format is the only thing that allows Terrans to make up for the fact that maps in 2019 are so large that it nerfs their race, which even though they are way more skilled than their Protoss and Zerg counterparts, they can never make up for in weekenders
I think soO would actually be the least likely to make it out of this group given his relative weakness in ZvT. He's quite strong in ZvZ and Rogue certainly has an odd playstyle in that matchup. The terran matchups could go either way. I think that a Terran and Rogue will advance, soO will get 3rd, and a terran 4th.
On March 09 2019 01:46 ZigguratOfUr wrote: TY and GuMi will win and then we'll get more nonsensical rationalizing about terran being fundamentally better at preparation formats.
Clearly preparation format is the only thing that allows Terrans to make up for the fact that maps in 2019 are so large that it nerfs their race, which even though they are way more skilled than their Protoss and Zerg counterparts, they can never make up for in weekenders
Im terran player myself, and i know you are joking, but its so funny that some people actually thinks this and think that terran players are actually better than zerg/protoss in general and loses only because of imba. facts is every race pro player puts in 5-10h per day practicing.. protoss/zerg players are just as good as terran. Even if something is slighty broken most of the stuff can be overcome by simply adjusting strategy because of inherent asymmetric design of the races.
On March 09 2019 01:46 ZigguratOfUr wrote: TY and GuMi will win and then we'll get more nonsensical rationalizing about terran being fundamentally better at preparation formats.
Clearly preparation format is the only thing that allows Terrans to make up for the fact that maps in 2019 are so large that it nerfs their race, which even though they are way more skilled than their Protoss and Zerg counterparts, they can never make up for in weekenders
Im terran player myself, and i know you are joking, but its so funny that some people actually thinks this and think that terran players are actually better than zerg/protoss in general and loses only because of imba. facts is every race pro player puts in 5-10h per day practicing.. protoss/zerg players are just as good as terran. Even if something is slighty broken most of the stuff can be overcome by simply adjusting strategy because of inherent asymmetric design of the races.
It doesn't help when almost the whole foreigner scene was and is full of good Zergs and Protosses while good Terrans are nowhere to be found.
edit> just to be on the safe side, I don't think the "Terrans are better", but there has to be something why foreigners can't make it as Terrans and I wonder what it is...
Dark > Hero Dear > Cure Dark > Dear Hero > Cure Hero >Dear
Dark & Hero advance, thus Maru vs Dark & Hero vs Bunny
Classic > Trap SOS > Innovation Classic > SOS Innovation > Trap Innovation > SOS (Rematch curse) Classic & Innovation advance, thus Rogue vs Classic & Innnovation vs TY
On March 09 2019 16:50 swarminfestor wrote: I predict the ro.8 matches will be like these:
Dark > Hero Dear > Cure Dark > Dear Hero > Cure Hero >Dear
Dark & Hero advance, thus Maru vs Dark & Hero vs Bunny
Classic > Trap SOS > Innovation Classic > SOS Innovation > Trap Innovation > SOS (Rematch curse) Classic & Innovation advance, thus Rogue vs Classic & Innnovation vs TY
Was the playoff structure determined so early in the past? It would be better to do this after the groupstage is finished, now the players in B and C already know their potential pairings. This could lead to Dark and herO not giving their best to get the first place in order to avoid Maru as Bunny should still be an easier opponent, even if I hope the Bunjwa proves me wrong.
On March 09 2019 16:50 swarminfestor wrote: I predict the ro.8 matches will be like these:
Dark > Hero Dear > Cure Dark > Dear Hero > Cure Hero >Dear
Dark & Hero advance, thus Maru vs Dark & Hero vs Bunny
Classic > Trap SOS > Innovation Classic > SOS Innovation > Trap Innovation > SOS (Rematch curse) Classic & Innovation advance, thus Rogue vs Classic & Innnovation vs TY
Was the playoff structure determined so early in the past? It would be better to do this after the groupstage is finished, now the players in B and C already know their potential pairings. This could lead to Dark and herO not giving their best to get the first place in order to avoid Maru as Bunny should still be an easier opponent, even if I hope the Bunjwa proves me wrong.
Based on the liquidpedia, it seems like that way. Thus, I bet Classic may let himself lose against Trap so that he can fight for the comfortable 2nd place spot against TY in ro8 playoff matchup.
On March 09 2019 16:50 swarminfestor wrote: I predict the ro.8 matches will be like these:
Dark > Hero Dear > Cure Dark > Dear Hero > Cure Hero >Dear
Dark & Hero advance, thus Maru vs Dark & Hero vs Bunny
Classic > Trap SOS > Innovation Classic > SOS Innovation > Trap Innovation > SOS (Rematch curse) Classic & Innovation advance, thus Rogue vs Classic & Innnovation vs TY
Was the playoff structure determined so early in the past? It would be better to do this after the groupstage is finished, now the players in B and C already know their potential pairings. This could lead to Dark and herO not giving their best to get the first place in order to avoid Maru as Bunny should still be an easier opponent, even if I hope the Bunjwa proves me wrong.
Based on the liquidpedia, it seems like that way. Thus, I bet Classic may let himself lose against Trap so that he can fight for the comfortable 2nd place spot against TY in ro8 playoff matchup.
The GSL Ro8 has been A vs B and C vs D since 2011.
What you suggest is a poor strategy though. Classic could conceivably lose to either player from the other match, going to the loser match on purpose would tempt his fate on advancing at all. Going to the winners match first only gives him advantages.
And while playing TY is probably preferable as Classic to playing Rogue, I don't think it's good enough to qualify as a comfortable spot given that Classic lost to TY very hard the last time they played (IEM qualifiers).