On December 04 2018 06:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote: just a nit-picky point here:
i agree with everything in your post except for the "only 26" thing. On average, an NBA player reaches their peak as an offensive player at age 26. For every LBJ there are 15 other guys whose offense never gets any better than what it was at age 26. There are plenty of NBA-ers whose peak offense occurs at 23 or 24 or 25.
Guys I'd wait on the longest to hit their peak as offensive players would be big, playmaking ballhandlers like Ben Simmons. Guys I'd have very little patience with would be 6 foot tall players who rely on amazing athleticism to compete.
If age 26 is the median peak, that means half the league will peak after that. That's too many players to write off. The average is also likely skewed by a lot of younger players who will be out of the league before they hit 26. All I'm saying is it's not too surprising that there will be a few players who turn from role players into stars at 26 or later. Steph Curry was 26 when GSW started their run.
I agree with the Ben Simmons example. Shooting accuracy is the offensive skill that is likely to improve with age. Just like Jason Kidd.
Median is probably the right term to use. Once you wait past age 26 for a player to have a break out year the odds are against you. Wayne Gretzky scored 92 goals when he was "only 23". That was his peak year.
On December 04 2018 08:59 andrewlt wrote: I agree with the Ben Simmons example. Shooting accuracy is the offensive skill that is likely to improve with age. Just like Jason Kidd.
this makes me wonder if "touch/feel passers" similar to Joe Montana in NFL Football age well?
On December 04 2018 06:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote: just a nit-picky point here:
i agree with everything in your post except for the "only 26" thing. On average, an NBA player reaches their peak as an offensive player at age 26. For every LBJ there are 15 other guys whose offense never gets any better than what it was at age 26. There are plenty of NBA-ers whose peak offense occurs at 23 or 24 or 25.
Guys I'd wait on the longest to hit their peak as offensive players would be big, playmaking ballhandlers like Ben Simmons. Guys I'd have very little patience with would be 6 foot tall players who rely on amazing athleticism to compete.
If age 26 is the median peak, that means half the league will peak after that. That's too many players to write off. The average is also likely skewed by a lot of younger players who will be out of the league before they hit 26. All I'm saying is it's not too surprising that there will be a few players who turn from role players into stars at 26 or later. Steph Curry was 26 when GSW started their run.
I agree with the Ben Simmons example. Shooting accuracy is the offensive skill that is likely to improve with age. Just like Jason Kidd.
Well there's going to be a point where Simmons' athleticism declines. If he hasn't learned to shoot by then he likely will be a bench player at best if he's not out of the league altogether.
The guy has horrendous form too, so he has to relearn his shot from scratch,
Saric rebounding on the second unit actually helps some! But Covington is bringing what Butler was supposed to and said he did. He is making those around him better on the D end. His shooting has been streaky but not bad and his D is lights out. His ability to help and recover is amazing. Now the wolves don't have to out score everyone every night. After my post about wiggins improved shooting a while ago he has been ice cold, bonus is he has been better on the back end. He's unlikely to ever live up to his contract, but RoCo being on such a "cheap" deal makes that hurt less.
On December 04 2018 06:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote: just a nit-picky point here:
i agree with everything in your post except for the "only 26" thing. On average, an NBA player reaches their peak as an offensive player at age 26. For every LBJ there are 15 other guys whose offense never gets any better than what it was at age 26. There are plenty of NBA-ers whose peak offense occurs at 23 or 24 or 25.
Guys I'd wait on the longest to hit their peak as offensive players would be big, playmaking ballhandlers like Ben Simmons. Guys I'd have very little patience with would be 6 foot tall players who rely on amazing athleticism to compete.
If age 26 is the median peak, that means half the league will peak after that. That's too many players to write off. The average is also likely skewed by a lot of younger players who will be out of the league before they hit 26. All I'm saying is it's not too surprising that there will be a few players who turn from role players into stars at 26 or later. Steph Curry was 26 when GSW started their run.
I agree with the Ben Simmons example. Shooting accuracy is the offensive skill that is likely to improve with age. Just like Jason Kidd.
Well there's going to be a point where Simmons' athleticism declines. If he hasn't learned to shoot by then he likely will be a bench player at best if he's not out of the league altogether.
The guy has horrendous form too, so he has to relearn his shot from scratch,
I think Jason Kidd was in his mid-30s when he learned to shoot? It's not too late if he brings a lot of other stuff to the table.
On December 04 2018 11:11 JimmyJRaynor wrote: Jokic looks like a 7-foot serbian john-stockton tonight. its taken 2.5 years ... however the Timberwolves' defense finally looks like a Thibodeau brand defense.
And Philadelphia's has collapsed in rating since the trade. So either Jimmy Butler is a giant defensive liability or Robert Covington deserves huge respect for what he brings to defenses.
Much as I love Part 2 of Atlas Shrugged : It does not need to be an Either-Or here. These elite athletes are still human beings.
With the wealth these guys have any random player can randomly decide to become an exotic-drug and party animal; this can lead to a mysterious drop in perfomance for any length of time. Also, if a guy, like say Pat Patterson who is flakey and "buys in" some years and other years is partying til 5 am six times per week ... he experiences an inexplicable decrease in performance. Patterson was clearly a better PF than Siakam in Siakam's rookie year. It wasn't even close really. Casey started Siakam because Patterson was too busy partying.
This performance variation is most easily noticed in a baseball hitter because of the 1-on-1 nature of their competition. In the 80s when a supreme hitter suddenly went into a giant slump and had bags under their eyes when the year before their eyes looked perfect... you knew Tim Raines was sticking coke up his nose for 4+ hours the night before or even the morning of the game. During the height of Raines coke habit he'd often swing and miss the ball by 3+ feet. Something he never did in his non-coke-addict state.
For all these 80s MLB coke-heads the truth is out on the vast majority of them because no one is trying to protect their reputation any longer.
Tying this back to Butler: Its impossible to tell what is going on in any random players' personal life for a few weeks of a stretch of time. So I wouldn't write off Butler as a bad defender based on a few weeks of poor play while being in-and-out of the T-Wolves line up. Could be a random party habit.. could be he was having an extended temper tantrum and wasn't buying into the system. who knows man.
Fultz got diagnosed with something I've never hear of and can't pronounce. But nerve stuff related to shoulder and neck. Hopefully this means they can fix it and he can't get back to balling, I always hate it when people are derailed by injury or illness.
Baseball pitchers get TOS. If physiotherapy doesn't work some pitchers get a radical surgical procedure; others choose to retire and avoid the surgery. I think surgeons are afraid there is a chance surgery makes things worse... so they avoid that route at all costs. TOS gets missed and misdiagnosed a lot.
a pitcher , JR Richard, was considered a malingerer. moody, and a "head case" when reporting a "dead arm" along with odd sensations in his shoulder and neck. He lost a substantial amount of speed off of his fastball. TOS went undetected and a blood clot from the undiagnosed impingement went to his neck and he had a stroke. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._R._Richard
I Wanna see the bucks take a big step this year. They are by far the more appealing team in the north Midwest compared to the wolves. Go Greek freak! Hummus dip activate!
I know its not feasible for lower leagues, but shouldn't Techs for mouthing off at refs not be decided by refs? Generic Spurs white guy just got one for being right.
On December 06 2018 06:59 JimmyJRaynor wrote: i cheer for team builders rather than players. Ujiri is pretty good and I really liked Lewieke. Had Toronto kept Lewieke I'd be a much bigger fan.
I always wondered JJR, you're usually quite active on TL about all sports and seems quite knowledgeable about them. But you have this kind of cold rational approach to them: obviously you're famous here for always being the one to bring up advanced analytics, that's fine, but now you're also saying you're cheering for front office decision makers and not for players. That strikes me as quite detached for a fan to say the least :D. Are you a sports better maybe? Any other motivation that I could understand or is it just your own personal approach to fandom and that's it?
My favourite team builders are Vince Lombardi, Lou Lamoriello, Andrew Friedman, and Pat Gillick. The New Jersey Devils always had a fraction of the resources of teh New York Rangers. The Toronto BLue Jays and Tampa Bay Devil Rays had a fraction of the resources of the New York Yankees.
My favourite Raptor team builder is Glen Grunwald.