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On April 23 2010 15:29 Korynne wrote: nai.protoss. D=
If you are town-aligned, GIVEN HOW BAD WE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DON'T GO KILL YOURSELF. >.>
I don't care what Incognito says, a townie voting with someone "reliable" is better than a dead townie.
My proposal is to SPREAD OUT "newbs" to vote with people the town generally consider to be innocent (Ace for example right now). I see no reason at all why this could be worse than having them die or follow stupid bandwagons.
I propose that nai.protoss votes with Ace tomorrow.
If you do that then we lose one critical element of information - that is, vote list analysis.
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Oh also there are other ways to justify your votes than "I am voting for (player X) because (player Y) is voting for him". So no, I'm not advocating that everyone goes and not votes. Just have a real reason for your voting. Like: "I am voting for (player X) because (elements A, B, and C) make him suspicious".
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Oh I didn't see that. Well you could have pointed to that earlier!
On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 12:58 IntoTheWow wrote: So, besides lynching BC, is there any other plan?
I see lots of people saying Vigis should hit, but who? I would look into some of the silent guys :/ The ones posting, we can read, but we can't anything with people who barely post.
I know this was brought up on like day 1, but back then people said that silent players would die later on easily, but I don't see how.
It would suck to kill our townies if the mafia happens to be hiding beside inactives.
Have to do some reading on the previous pages, but I wanted to post since I'm going to be away all day tomorrow due to university. I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one. Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red. Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through. Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk.
We have at most one vigilante, maybe none. This person should use his kill to kill BC. Which will be able to tell us something about RoL, giving us information to use for our double lynch.
Why shouldn't you randomly kill someone based on your own research? We already have narrowed down a pool, BC and RoL. Unless you want to waste both lynches on these two characters, one of these people must die now. If you were to do your own research on who to kill, you have all the information from the past 2 days. Then, during our Double lynch, we are forced to kill BC/RoL to get us our 1 mafia.
On the other hand, if you kill BC right now, we know whether or not to trust RoL, giving us the flexibility of not killing RoL in the event that BC is mafia or miller. Furthermore, our second lynch will be more accurate since we have the information from the past 2 days PLUS all the information from the night's killings. By making the no-brainer kill now, we can wait until we receive more information for the more accurate lynch.
Medics. Don't follow one person to protect. Follow two. Flip a coin between protecting Ace and me (unless anyone else has a better suggestion on another useful person). That way, the mafia can't really be sure that they can successfully kill either Ace or me. This makes them scared to hit either of us, effectively doubling your protection powers (unless the mafia is really ballsy).
So sorry, meeple, I retract my statement that you're being useless. This post was actually useful. I disagree with some parts of it, but it shows effort. Bravo.
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Oh also unlike vigs I think there is a good chance of us still having 2 medics left. 2 medics flipping a coin between protecting two people would be super effective. Almost completely discourages them from hitting either of the two people.
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On April 23 2010 15:52 Korynne wrote: Well sure that's the ideal situation. But if nai.protoss feels like quitting surely we'd prefer a brainless townie to a resigned dead townie.
If we run out of better suspects we can lynch him, but for the meantime I can't see how it would hurt the town to keep him around as votes. I think this is safer than having him vote someone "randomly" because he's "new" and "doesn't know who to vote for" etc.
I mean same goes for people like Scaramanga, who says he's bad at analyzing so he'll just hear what other people have to say.
If they're not going to contribute, we should at least make sure their actions are controlled by townies, rather than randomness. Given that they are "bad" players, I don't think having people like that being the last 2 mafia would hurt us terribly as lynching them instead of bigger threats.
Of course, if someone's giving intelligent analysis one game and playing dumb the next, then this will not apply.
I am in no way discouraging analysis and input, but if you /have/ to play that card then I suggest you follow someone significantly townie and probably a good player, aka Ace right now.
Also, this means that if we're at critical mass, we assume them to be mafia and not assume them to vote with someone else(LYLO).
No, its better if we have a resigned dead townie than a brainless townie. Allowing brainless townies encourages mafia to pretend to be brainless townies. Its practically impossible to tell a brainless townie from a brainless townie-looking mafia. And hidden brainless mafia are worse than one dead townie.
I did say that we have better suspects than him, didn't I?
Its not that hard to read the analysis (he has been doing that apparently) and pick which analysis you agree with. And when you state your reasons why you are voting for someone, don't hide behind the cover of following someone or not having enough information. Own your analysis (even if its stolen from someone else). Don't cushion yourself with fluff words or distance yourself from the analysis. Embrace the analysis, and pretend its yours and you'll be fine.
Yes, people like Scaramanga also have to step up. I was just using nai.Protoss as an example. There are plenty of others out there who need to step up.
I do not endorse random following.
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On April 23 2010 16:05 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 15:52 Incognito wrote:Oh I didn't see that. Well you could have pointed to that earlier! On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote:On April 23 2010 12:58 IntoTheWow wrote: So, besides lynching BC, is there any other plan?
I see lots of people saying Vigis should hit, but who? I would look into some of the silent guys :/ The ones posting, we can read, but we can't anything with people who barely post.
I know this was brought up on like day 1, but back then people said that silent players would die later on easily, but I don't see how.
It would suck to kill our townies if the mafia happens to be hiding beside inactives.
Have to do some reading on the previous pages, but I wanted to post since I'm going to be away all day tomorrow due to university. I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one. Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red. Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through. Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk. We have at most one vigilante, maybe none. This person should use his kill to kill BC. Which will be able to tell us something about RoL, giving us information to use for our double lynch. Why shouldn't you randomly kill someone based on your own research? We already have narrowed down a pool, BC and RoL. Unless you want to waste both lynches on these two characters, one of these people must die now. If you were to do your own research on who to kill, you have all the information from the past 2 days. Then, during our Double lynch, we are forced to kill BC/RoL to get us our 1 mafia. On the other hand, if you kill BC right now, we know whether or not to trust RoL, giving us the flexibility of not killing RoL in the event that BC is mafia or miller. Furthermore, our second lynch will be more accurate since we have the information from the past 2 days PLUS all the information from the night's killings. By making the no-brainer kill now, we can wait until we receive more information for the more accurate lynch. Medics. Don't follow one person to protect. Follow two. Flip a coin between protecting Ace and me (unless anyone else has a better suggestion on another useful person). That way, the mafia can't really be sure that they can successfully kill either Ace or me. This makes them scared to hit either of us, effectively doubling your protection powers (unless the mafia is really ballsy). So sorry, meeple, I retract my statement that you're being useless. This post was actually useful. I disagree with some parts of it, but it shows effort. Bravo. Ace and Incog imo are ok people to protect for now... although flipping a coin won't really avoid the potential for double protecting whatever it randomizes it. I agree about the BC vigi kill... but I want to encourage people, especially those in powerful roles like medics/vigi's to be questioning things in the thread and not following so blindly. If you've made a solid logical case for BC's death (which you have) then there's no reason for a vigi to not follow it. Now, if it turns out the RoL really is trustable... then it kinda thins out the protection again... but then again if we have two medics, we should be able to cover 3 people pretty nicely and in this case we should use the randomization method suggested by incog to remove personal bias and increase overall protection of the three.
Actually we want the possibility of both medics protecting the same people. That way the mafia are forced to use 3 entire hits to make sure one of us are dead.
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On April 23 2010 16:10 Korynne wrote: Considering how low we are on townies, I really don't think having a dead townie is good for our causes, especially since mafia KP is so high.
I guess we'll just wait until tomorrow morning to decide what to do, but one dead townie is one step closer to losing. One inactive townie lynch right now is 1.5 steps closer to losing (.5 being a 50% chance we could've lynched a mafia instead).
Anyway, no point arguing about this now when we have other things to do. nai.protoss, do what you see fit and JUSTIFY YOURSELF AS BEST AS YOU CAN WHEN DOING SO.
Of course one dead townie is bad for our cause and advances our loss. I am not advocating that said townie should just die. I am advocating that said townie defend his viewpoint like I stated a couple posts back.
One alive blindly following mafioso is infinite steps closer to losing. Because we'll just assume he's a blindly following townie and never lynch him. Yes, here I am contrasting your proposal to what will actually happen. But there is a third option. Which I have already explained.
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Lol for some reason I didn't read the page or two (explaining why I missed meeple's post) before my long post and now I notice that other people were already talking about the same things...
Oh well, I guess I am useless. Maybe I should just stop putting so much effort into this game. Hopefully your DTs can win the game for you .
Gnight y'all.
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Hi I'm back, just need to check up on the last few pages in the thread, but I'm just posting this right now to announce that I have taken a hit.
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Fishball: Its day 3, you're a troll, and you gotta come out now. Thanks. Oh also one interesting thing to note is that you comment saying the zbot archive is awesome. Why is this so? Either you just threw this out there to fake activity, or you're actually using it to do analysis. Take your pick.
Bill Murray: At first he made me think he was just playing usual and just be ignored. But his posting has dramatically declined. Busy? Thinks he's in the clear? Not his spammy usual self anymore. But then again, its really hard to read him. If he's mafia, he may be receiving orders from a strong mafia player (BC). Lets see if his posting deteriorates even more after BC is offed. He's been acting inconsistently though. No. 1 RC suspect imo.
Scaramanga: You've been useless enough, been called out enough times on it, and haven't responded. Moreover, you seem to be active elsewhere but not here. You've been around long enough to know what is expected.
motbob: motbob is inconsistent. Besides his early useless posts, he posts this:
On April 21 2010 15:49 motbob wrote: I don't want to get modkilled, so here I am, posting. I think town is pretty much on the right track so there is no need to delve into anyone's posts or anything yet.
But only two posts later, he says:
On April 24 2010 10:46 motbob wrote: ....I don't think this game is winnable unless we hit on every lynch. 14 town and 7 mafia. Mafia have 3KP in a best case scenario. If mafia just skip likely medic targets and hit random town, and we miss a lynch, this game is basically over. What makes this worse is that (imo) we don't have any likely lynch targets. So town is in roleclaim mode IMO. What does everyone else think?
So the town is on the right track, but then only two posts later we're doomed? What happened? I'm sure the night kills didn't change your mind that much...your posting is inconsistent, and you just seem to be stirring the pot and trying to avoid discussion when possible. Then, you pop up and say we're doomed, likely because you want to out all the power roles. Given that I still think there's at least 2 medics in there, that would help you a lot if you were mafia, right? Trying to push the boat in the direction you want? Seems like it to me.
Falcynn: I thought you could've been mafiassassin given that you were talking a lot about assassins in your early posts. But now that all the assassins are gone, I guess that clears a few things up. Other than that, advocates a randomlynch, posts more useless information, then responds to me. Then your posts really start to slide. Defending your terrible play, admitting to active lurking, and even more defense of your terrible play. I wish townies would just stop defending their terrible play. Either way, I don't think you're a townie, so whatever. In response to your post, I had an inkling AFJ was an assassin, and felt bored last night. Sadly, he didn't bother following through and choosing to kill you. If you tried to kill him to stop his hit from coming through, it wouldn't work, all night actions happen simultaneously. So no, I won't use that excuse, but then again, I don't really need to.
d3: hmm the Caller-is-innocent vibes may have been coming from reading my list of innocents. Blindly following me? Or having a subconscious bias of Caller's innocence because of my statement? Other than that, he seems to be posting like normal from past games. I like my other suspects better. Although d3 hasn't been extremely helpful. Hmm...I seem to remember that he is usually more technical and planning-oriented. Didn't see too much of that in his current posts.
Scamp: probably town. I like RoL(?)'s and meeple's latest analysis of him. yeah, he voted jpak, but I don't know how much weight that holds for me. His mention of TheLardyGooser doesn't seem a mafia oriented action. And even though he's been around for a while, I don't think he would be one to accuse his own mafia member off the bat. Although given the weird activities going around lately, I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia had a solid player around trying to coach the weaker ones. (Would make sense since BC has been so inactive all game).
Anyway, paper due on monday morning, so I will probably be less active until then. Looks like not much is happening right now though.
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Wow English papers are brutal. Anyway,
On April 24 2010 22:10 motbob wrote:Show nested quote +On April 24 2010 18:07 Incognito wrote:motbob: motbob is inconsistent. Besides his early useless posts, he posts this: On April 21 2010 15:49 motbob wrote: I don't want to get modkilled, so here I am, posting. I think town is pretty much on the right track so there is no need to delve into anyone's posts or anything yet.
But only two posts later, he says: On April 24 2010 10:46 motbob wrote: ....I don't think this game is winnable unless we hit on every lynch. 14 town and 7 mafia. Mafia have 3KP in a best case scenario. If mafia just skip likely medic targets and hit random town, and we miss a lynch, this game is basically over. What makes this worse is that (imo) we don't have any likely lynch targets. So town is in roleclaim mode IMO. What does everyone else think?
So the town is on the right track, but then only two posts later we're doomed? What happened? I'm sure the night kills didn't change your mind that much...your posting is inconsistent, and you just seem to be stirring the pot and trying to avoid discussion when possible. Then, you pop up and say we're doomed, likely because you want to out all the power roles. Given that I still think there's at least 2 medics in there, that would help you a lot if you were mafia, right? Trying to push the boat in the direction you want? Seems like it to me. Your analysis on me is poor. In between those two posts, the mafia that Ace fingered turned out to be a miller. Three townies were modkilled before night one. Five non-mafia players were removed from the game during night one: two townies and three assassins. RoL's role check alone shows us that assassins can be helpful to town. Nine non-mafia players were eliminated, and zero mafia members were eliminated. After these events I make my second post. It is a massive misrepresentation of my posting to note that my posts came one after the other, but fail to mention that they were three days apart.
Oh hmm I looked at the dates, but for some reason I thought the modkills happened before then. My bad.
On April 24 2010 22:55 Ace wrote: Wow good post Rage. I just saw something interesting in that last compilation. Looking through Incognito's list of earlier likely innocents almost all of them ended up being useless players.
Do we have any mad hatters left? Role claim now if you are alive.
Yeah, it is a pity that all of them turned out to be useless. 2 players who ended up acting scummy (and miller lol) and an inactive Zona. And now BrownBear is acting somewhat scummy himself. I guess its difficult to make early judgments based on a quick rundown of some posts. And BM's disappearance in favor of running his own game make me think he's scum too.
On April 24 2010 23:06 RaGe wrote:If you consider my hypothesis of Mafia not believing Ace was a DT after his Caller rolecheck, then these are very suspicious posts: Show nested quote +On April 21 2010 13:51 IntoTheWow wrote: I'm just curious. Role checks are PM'd to the person who made them, but no one else knows for sure right? Ace could just be making up whatever role check he thinks best fits him. If I'm wrong in my train of thought please tell me. Show nested quote +On April 21 2010 14:06 IntoTheWow wrote:Ok, time for some wall of text: About Ace: He started this little game on biding. The first thing I'm suspicious of is the way he distributed his fake money: + Show Spoiler +# Zona - $100 # CynanMachae - $100 # tree.hugger - $75 # d3_crescentia - $50 # KF91 - $100 # iNfuNdiBuLuM - $75 # RebirthOfLegend - $100 # BloodyC0bbler - $200 # Jugan - $30 # Scaramanga - $0 (get a job) # Bill Murray - $100 # Fishball - $85 # RaGe - $100 # Foolishness - $no # Scamp - $100 # Abenson - $90 # Caller - $175 # [NyC]HoBbes - $100 # meeple - $120 # Fulgrim - $70 # JadeFist - $100 # Roffles - $100 # krndandaman - $0 # Falcynn - $40 # nbtnbt5 - $60 # IntoTheWow - $100 # Incognito - $25 # love1another - $66 # AcrossFiveJulys - $50 # nAi.PrOtOsS - $0.50 # DarthThienAn - $60 # Radfield - $100 # TheLardyGooser - $80 # Osmoses - $2 # jpak - $21 # motbob - $100 # madnessman - $75 First, he gave BloodyC0bbler the most bidding power, even thought he has hardly participated so far. Point? Please don't say it's random. Then he says he gave Caller the most bidding power to make him fall for his trap. Makes sense with meeple riding 120$ and BC as well, but then again there's other suspicious people Foolishness no money? Did you know he was going to die? You could be an Assassin and then this game would make zero sense at all, since all it's doing is keeping you in the spotlish, either to be lynched or in Mafia eyes to take you down if they feel you are a threat. If you were a real detective, I don't think this helps too much, you are just instantly rallying people into what you want to do. You could very well make up whatever answer it fits you best as mafia. If somebody rolechecks anyone, you can make up whatever is the general idea of that person's role. Then again, with one detective down, it's hard to really know what you are up to. If somebody asks for a self-role check (like Jugan did) you can make up whatever you like, Townie would have a high % of nailing it. If you feel your plan might fall that way, you can just kill him during the night before revealing the role check and hence, knowing what the person's role was. I'm not sure why you are trying to pull this little game, it doesn't help the town at all in my opinion. At the same time I haven't played other Mafia games here, so I don't know if this is your general playstyle, or something you have done before.
I will post more on other people soon, just want to stop some bandwagon that makes no sense. I suspect of Ace as much as I suspect of Caller. That last one especially. Not only is he putting suspicion on Caller (which makes sense for mafia if my hypothesis is true), but he's putting suspicion on RoL now that the BC vs RoL thing started.
Although I see the reasoning behind why mafia would think Ace was lying, I still think it somewhat strange that the mafia really didn't take Ace's claim seriously. I mean, out of all players, Ace is one that people would expect to be more rational. Claiming DT out of the blue isn't something I would discount right away, especially coming from someone like Ace. If your hypothesis is correct, then maybe the mafia are all made up of newer players who don't know Ace's style. Although I would think that inexperienced players would panic and want to off Ace right away after Caller flipped red, which didn't happen. Something doesn't line up here. I know from instinct I thought IntoTheWow was town. I'll go back and check his posts though.
On April 25 2010 01:54 Korynne wrote: BrownBear Started April 20th, replacing Zona.
Level of Activity Other than his first 6 posts, all his posts are very far apart in time. 13 posts total 4 "real" posts total "real" posts cluster towards the beginning
Summary and Accusations: Started off doubting Ace in the Ace vs. Caller thing (basically time when he entered the game) Still doubting Ace after Caller is miller'd. Feels a bit under fire from people trying to analyze his predecessor Accuses BC of being assassin Accuses RoL of being scum Says he'll do an analysis of BM later Longer explanation of why RoL is scum Says that he doesn't want to tell medic who to protect, and says vigis/assassins should perform some hits without providing recommendations Again with the "gogogo medics vigis and assassins." without recommendations. Does not like Korynne telling medics what to do, saying mafia could kill 4 randoms instead of Ace and RoL Complains about 14T/7M and doesn't contribute. No new posts between end of zBot and right now.
Conclusion: Btw when I count "real" posts I don't mean specifically 1 post, it's more like okay these 3 all look a bit fluffy I'll combine them into 1.5 "real" post count.
Anyway, I think BrownBear looks a bit suspicious. Posts are getting fluffier as time goes by, and less activity as well.
I expect some real content from BrownBear or he looks rather scummy.
BrownBear: especially combined with his latest qualification of his argument against Fishball, makes me want to stare at him more. Actually, from his first post he does seem to be trying to sow seeds of, "Prepare to kill ace when Caller flips innocent" logic. BrownBear's doubt of RoL seems mafia-ish if BC were mafia. However, BC as we know, flipped town. Although I guess it would be logical for the maifa to doubt RoL anyway knowing that BC would flip town and that they could also get RoL lynched the next day as per the Caller/Ace argument presented by Rage. Scummy looking at this point though, but I'll take a few more minutes to look more into detail on this later.
On April 25 2010 03:41 BrownBear wrote:To be fair, end of zBot and now = time when BrownBear was running a show, and sleeping. And I apologize for the lack of content recently, I have been very busy (as light designer/lightboard op for a show, these last couple of days have been hell). I will start adding some more content, because I am most definitely not scum, and to be taken as such would be kind of a failure on my part, and would really screw the town over. Also, btw, I no longer doubt Ace, he's definitely a detective. I said as much already too. So let's start analyzing people on Ace's list, because I like it (apart from myself being on there, obviously ) But first, I still owe an analysis on Bill Murray, so I'm going to post it now, sorry for it being so late. So to begin, Bill MurrayEarly on, not really that much content. Accuses Zona (me) and RaGe of scumminess, Zona for relative inactivite, RaGe for saying "hey let's just bandwagon RoL day 1". Then BC, who is probably scum, jumps on saying "motbob is also red" and BM thinks he's blue. (correctly) labels tree.hugger as assassin (damn man you are good with the analysis). Claims himself to be green, laments he's never red. calls for a lynch on KF91 (who coincidentally, just wrote a list above fingering Bill Murray as potential mafia, as well as me again) Continued random posts with minor analysis until we get to the first "Ace is a detective" argument. Here it gets interesting. He provides analysis with all the options, then agrees, "you know what, ace is probably a detective." Turns out, he's right. Woo Bill Murray. After that, he's been very very quiet. A few one liners here and there. So I am inclined to think he's town. He's very very good with his analysis (2 correct so far, whereas I have 0), and he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game. Thus, I'm gonna say town.
Also this is some terrible analysis. Mafia would have the incentive to say tree.hugger is an assassin too, no?
On April 26 2010 02:14 BrownBear wrote: Also, where the hell are the vigilantes and Mad Hatters? Unless I missed something, I have yet to see a kill from any vigilantes or the second Mad Hatter, if there is a second.
99% sure theres no hatters left. Maybe a vig, but other than that, I wouldn't look to be reliant on having any other extraneous KP.
On April 26 2010 07:03 d3_crescentia wrote: I was hoping you'd come back and post something that would be a bit more thought out, but alas - my hopes were dashed, and you're going to have to go on my super special awesome list.
Cool. I wasn't alerted to the fact that you have a super special awesome list. Care to share with us?
Anyways I'm running out of fuel for this game. Are you?
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The person 16 down from me:
Falcynn. I already did an analysis of him. I don't think anything's changed since then either. Quoted for reference:
Falcynn: I thought you could've been mafiassassin given that you were talking a lot about assassins in your early posts. But now that all the assassins are gone, I guess that clears a few things up. Other than that, advocates a randomlynch, posts more useless information, then responds to me. Then your posts really start to slide. Defending your terrible play, admitting to active lurking, and even more defense of your terrible play. I wish townies would just stop defending their terrible play. Either way, I don't think you're a townie, so whatever. In response to your post, I had an inkling AFJ was an assassin, and felt bored last night. Sadly, he didn't bother following through and choosing to kill you. If you tried to kill him to stop his hit from coming through, it wouldn't work, all night actions happen simultaneously. So no, I won't use that excuse, but then again, I don't really need to.
Ah yes, IntoTheWow, thank you for reminding me of my statement:
If you're not going to bother stepping up your game now, don't expect us to believe you when you pop up tomorrow and try to defend yourself after we've accused you.
Either way, we probably can't afford to policy lynch. But at the same time, I doubt any of the people who haven't posted yet are going to give a decent defense anyway. I'm going to make this my policy for future games, at least as a test for the next few games. Seriously I'm tired of waiting to hear people until they are accused and come up to defend themselves. Its a waste of my time, and everyone elses time. Which reminds me: people like meeple (still), falcynn, scaramanga, fishball and nai.protoss follow this trend. Thats 5 people. Out of 18. Not good.
Anyway, people I have high on my list that should be seriously considered for lynch:
Fishball Scaramanga BrownBear
General reasons for lynching them have already been given, so I won't bother to go into detail on them right now. BrownBear would be my choice pick right now, but given that he is actually active, I'll wait to hear a defense before voting.
IntoTheWow: Inactives on TL mafia...are always existent. Are there trends to point to whether they are town or mafia? Not really. Inactives are useless in every game, and burden the town at the critical moments in the late game. At this point, further analysis is relatively futile. Sure, you can probably find some things, but most likely, you'll find nothing conclusive. If you are to do any analysis, analyze people who have posted a substantial amount. The information you have now is probably the only relevant information you will have. Other than that, its a crap shoot.
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BrownBear. If you want reasoning, you can have it. Three important posts about him.
On April 22 2010 03:43 BrownBear wrote:Ok. Wow. Reading this was intense, and this is far far deeper and more elaborate than any Mafia game I've ever played before (although, like Korynne, I've never played on a forum before, so maybe that has something to do with it.) That said, here goes, with a little mini-analysis of what seems to be the biggest story of the last 20 pages or so: Ace vs Caller. I find the Caller bandwagon to be slightly weird. It seems that people have jumped on the caller bandwagon largely due to this post by Ace: + Show Spoiler +On April 21 2010 12:37 Ace wrote: STOP THE GAME!
Rolecheck on Caller came back : Caller is Mafia
Lets get this shit. ...although Caller really hasn't helped his cause much by being BM about it. However, the only real proof we have that Ace is his word, plus an (easily fakeable) pm from flamewheel. Of course, he still could easily be a detective, as he said, but then that begs the question: why did the Mafia not kill him on night 1, and go for Radfield instead? I have not seen any evidence that the Mafia knew somehow that Radfield was a detective - except, of course, for another post by Ace: + Show Spoiler +On April 20 2010 06:42 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2010 04:46 Radfield wrote: some shit about voting for some guy, with pros and cons
wait my bad. This guy is. Don't let him die - only hope for the town to win. ...which doesnt exactly implicate Radfield as a detective, but... it's just very very strange to me. It's not really enough for me to stick my neck out for Caller, as he's pretty obviously today's pincushion, and honestly, people have been lynched in Mafia games for less that this. However, it does make me suspicious, so here's my recommendation: Lynch Caller today, and see what his role was. If he does turn out to be scum, then I hereby retract all the nasty horrible things I said about Ace in this post, with my most humble apologies. However, if he's innocent... I for one will be targeting the guy who seems most responsible for his death. Now to prepare to have my argument cut to shreds
First post about the Caller/Ace situation. At first, this sounds like a post that supports Caller's lynch. It seemingly says to trust Ace on Caller unless Caller turns up green, which is perfectly logical. However, why does this require so many words? If you look at the underlying tone of this message, it looks to plant seeds of doubt on Ace's credibility. BrownBear a) questions why Ace is still alive if he is truly a DT, b) mentions how Ace's DT check is "easily fakeable" (he could forge a pm from flamewheel, which is in fact, illegal, but whatevers), and c) finds it "interesting" that Ace mentioned how Radfield (a dead DT) was critical for the town. Lets unpack.
Questioning Ace's DT alignment is a good move for the mafia. They know Caller was innocent, so by questioning Ace's alignment, they could prepare to say "see I told you" when Caller flips green and lynch Ace the next day. Furthermore, BrownBear downscales the validity of Ace's rolecheck, saying that it is virtually unprovable. While we did see BC also make a similar attack and BC was town, the other parts of BrownBear's post show that BrownBear's logic is different. BC was relying on previous (and widely known) metagame tactics to lynch the DT as the best course of action for the town, while BrownBear simply doubts Ace's checks because they are "unprovable". Whether or not you agree with the BC's proposed strategy, at least he provided one. BrownBear, on the other hand, does nothing of the sort, and simply attacks Ace's validity without providing a logical underlying reason. The reasons he gives are that there is no proof. BrownBear's post has direction or basis in logic. It is merely a doubt post. In addition, BrownBear brings up Ace's post where he tells the medics to protect Radfield, who is the only hope for the town to win. Why does he bring this up and only say that "it is very very strange to me"? By saying this, BrownBear is trying to implicate Ace's role in Radfield's death, without actually explicitly attacking him. Why does BrownBear mention all the above points? It doesn't make sense if he were town. As a townie, its obvious that if Caller flips green, Ace is BSing and should be lynched. There's no further need to place doubt on Ace. Unless of course you're mafia trying to get brownie points.
On April 23 2010 03:31 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2010 15:32 meeple wrote:
Well... you have the same role, so his acting can still give hints into what you are. However it kinda sucks for you because you can't really defend his actions.
Eh, so it goes. I'm not really going to try to pretend I knew what was going on in his head. So, having looked at the required reading, here goes in terms of analysis: BloodyC0bbler:Started the game offering a lot of advice to new players, and specifically telling medics NOT to protect him, Ace, or Caller. With Caller out, that leaves him and Ace that the medics are NOT supposed to protect. That, to me, is kinda suspect. If you analyze it on the surface, it's a totally selfless move that makes him look townie, but honestly, why even bother making that move? He could have just as easily said nothing about whether the medic protects him or not, and it wouldn't have been suspicious at all. Plus, now, with it having been pretty much established that Ace is DT, having medics not protect him is just silly. On the other side, to be fair, BC probaby had no clue Ace was a DT when he made that post, so it's not entirely damning evidence, it's just minorly suspect. Gives some more early game advice, drops into some oneliners, then starts a bandwagon on RoL, then jumps off immediately once it gets rolling. What? He claims its under the pretense that he's starting wagons on inactive players. As this is my first time playing, I don't know if this is actually a legitimate strategy, but, hey, y'know, whatever. He then follows up with some decent analysis of random people's posts, which all seem to end in confirming them red. Kind of odd that he yells at meeple for doing nothing but confirming people red, while at the same time pointing the FoS at many people himself - the only difference is he mixes it up by also adding advice to newbies/random oneline comments. So... I feel something's off here. I am pretty sure he's not Townie, based off the fact that he seems to have a clear agenda here, and he's picking people who I don't think are mafia, and accusing them to be red. But at the same time, he's also (so far) working by himself, and doesn't seem to be anti-town so much as he is anti-specific people. Thus, I'm going to call Assassin.RebirthOfLegenDNot nearly as active as BC, but that could mean anything, he claims he's been very busy. Most of his posts are 1-3 liners, with the exception of some longer defense posts. What I don't like is that ok, he has accused BC of mafia, but he presents NO evidence besides "rolecheck confirmed LOL". I fail to see anywhere where he claims to be a DT, or have any rolechecks whatsoever, so if someone could point me to that that would be greatly appreciated. Beyond that, he doesn't seem to be taking the game very seriously, his posts have little to no analysis, and he appears to have given up on the town. All this points to SCUMBill MurrayI will analyze Bill Murray in a little bit, as I have class now and there's a lot of reading to go through.
Second big post by BrownBear. First off, we know that before this post, RoL already claimed that he checked BC as a MAFIA. So why does BrownBear say BC is an assassin? First off, let us first assume that BrownBear is town. A logical reason for calling BC an assassin, is naturally, because he doesn't believe RoL is a DT. Which he does post. So from a town-point of view, BB's actions make sense here.
Now let's assume that BrownBear is mafia. Well, given from the previous debacle with Ace/Caller, the mafia might be afraid of millers and would be moved to consider attempting to lynch the unconfirmed DT before he is confirmed. The mafia knew that RoL wasn't mafia, and therefore was either a green BSing, or a DT/Assassin. Because of the risk of getting (another) confirmed DT, it makes sense that the mafia would want to kill RoL first. BC was a suspicious target anyway, and they could probably get him lynched after that, even if RoL did not turn out to be DT/Assassin. And if RoL turned out to be DT/Assassin, it would be all the more easier to lynch BC the next day. Win-win for the mafia.
Now we have two reasonable explanations here. Both make sense, and are reasonable interpretations. So I guess we'd have to look elsewhere for more information.
On April 25 2010 03:41 BrownBear wrote:To be fair, end of zBot and now = time when BrownBear was running a show, and sleeping. And I apologize for the lack of content recently, I have been very busy (as light designer/lightboard op for a show, these last couple of days have been hell). I will start adding some more content, because I am most definitely not scum, and to be taken as such would be kind of a failure on my part, and would really screw the town over. Also, btw, I no longer doubt Ace, he's definitely a detective. I said as much already too. So let's start analyzing people on Ace's list, because I like it (apart from myself being on there, obviously ) But first, I still owe an analysis on Bill Murray, so I'm going to post it now, sorry for it being so late. So to begin, Bill MurrayEarly on, not really that much content. Accuses Zona (me) and RaGe of scumminess, Zona for relative inactivite, RaGe for saying "hey let's just bandwagon RoL day 1". Then BC, who is probably scum, jumps on saying "motbob is also red" and BM thinks he's blue. (correctly) labels tree.hugger as assassin (damn man you are good with the analysis). Claims himself to be green, laments he's never red. calls for a lynch on KF91 (who coincidentally, just wrote a list above fingering Bill Murray as potential mafia, as well as me again) Continued random posts with minor analysis until we get to the first "Ace is a detective" argument. Here it gets interesting. He provides analysis with all the options, then agrees, "you know what, ace is probably a detective." Turns out, he's right. Woo Bill Murray. After that, he's been very very quiet. A few one liners here and there. So I am inclined to think he's town. He's very very good with his analysis (2 correct so far, whereas I have 0), and he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game. Thus, I'm gonna say town.
BrownBear makes a defense post, where he acknowledges that he now thinks Ace is 100% DT (whereas before he was was still doubting), and throws up a poor analysis of Bill Murray. Absolutely trash analysis, which, contrasts with his previous analyses. (At least his BC and RoL analysis had some decent logic). The one sided, incomplete, and grossly mis-representative analysis of BM makes me think that this was thrown up in a hurry to avoid suspicion. Very shady here.
What else is wrong with this analysis though? It focuses on Bill Murray as a good analyst and says that "he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game". First off, Bill isn't a good analyst, and even then, the material that BB focuses on is that BM correctly guessed an assassin and a DT, which are not the most pro-town of activities. Analysis on mafia is very different than speculation on blues, and here, BB seems to want to want to make us think that Bill is useful because he has good analysis. Furthermore, BB also says that the fact that Bill hasn't random accused recently makes him more pro-town. While it may be true that Bill hasn't done that recently, he hasn't even been active recently either. BB's attempt to play up Bill's analysis skills and dismiss his early random accusations (scummy behavior) reminds me of a mafia trying to defend another mafia. Which brings me to another point: Unlike other candidates right now, BrownBear's lynch gives us information for tomorrow's lynch. If BrownBear flips red, we get a juicy lynch target for tomorrow.
On April 26 2010 14:06 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2010 09:53 BrownBear wrote:I think it's safe to assume, for now at least, that all the millers are dead, because more than two would be really unfair to us (especially if we're out of Vigis). There's at least one Veteran left in the game though, because none have died yet, and the role wouldn't be up there if there were none. Hopefully the mafia decide to target him tonight, cause that would put us up 12-6 instead of 11-6, which isn't that much better, but at this point I'll take any advantage we can get ONWARD WITH ANALYSIS! FishballWell... there's actually not too much to analyze here, like KF said already, most of his posts have little to no substance. In fact, all of his posts have little to no substance. But, there's information to glean from that. He's pretty inactive in terms of actually helping the town - the most constructive post he posted was "I'm bored, analyze me" after which people actually started noticing how little he's contributed. After which, he had the option to be more active and assuage some of the suspicions cast on him, which he has so far failed to do. This is all pretty scummy, but he still could be a bored townie... until he started again questioning Ace's Detective-ness. Ace is, at this point, pretty much 100% Detective, two correct predictions in a row (we have to count the millers as correct because they do flip Mafia to rolechecks) is nearly impossible to pull off. Thus, I say, you good sir are SCUM, and i say we lynch him at sunrise, unless Ace flips someone else as Mafia for sure. As an addendum, I would also say that even if my analysis is false and he isn't scum, he's done nothing helpful for the town at all (not even analysis), so... the only downside is one less Townie, I suppose. And that's a worst-case scenario. I'm still sticking to my guns that he's Mafia.
People have stated that this is scummy because it is a preemptive defense. That is true, but there's more to look at here than just that. As I have already told everyone before,
And when you state your reasons why you are voting for someone, don't hide behind the cover of following someone or not having enough information. Own your analysis (even if its stolen from someone else). Don't cushion yourself with fluff words or distance yourself from the analysis. Embrace the analysis, and pretend its yours and you'll be fine.
While I wrote this to address the problem of ppl justifying their votes by just blindly following someone, the same principle applies to analysis. Own your analysis. Don't hedge your possible error. Adding fluff words to distance themselves away from their analysis is something that scum do to attempt to flee accountability if they're wrong. Justifying your analysis by saying "but oh, if he's town, he's useless anyway" is a great way for you to hide if you're mafia. Sure BrownBear, you could have done this even if you were town. But given all the other things you've done, that possibility does not seem too likely. Luckily, this statement also gives us direction on what to do tomorrow if you flip red. It tells us that we should probably not lynch Fishball.
One more thing, the icing on the cake:
On April 26 2010 23:07 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2010 22:41 Scamp wrote:
I asked Brownbear if he's preemptively defending himself because I find it very odd that he would take the time to defend himself since A: a wagon hasn't even started on him and B: he's more worried about saving his own ass than catching mafia. I would dispute that. I'm concerned about a wagon starting on me because it would be a massive waste of time, and this late in the game we cannot afford to be lynching non-mafia. I added on what I said because I meant to say that second part before, but forgot to until later, and didn't want to edit my post.
This is a BS response. Before he even acknowledges the fact that he preemptively defended himself, he tells us why he's concerned about getting bandwagoned. That wasn't the question. And it looks bad when you defend yourself on a question on why you're defending yourself when you haven't even been attacked yet.
Summary: BrownBear is scummy and should be lynched. Yes there are other scummy people out there. But unlike other alternatives, BrownBear has said enough that we have leads tomorrow if he flips red. So we get a bonus here because we off a very suspicious character while also learning information. Win-win for us.
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Hello nbtnbt5, would you care to explain to us why you voted for Scaramanga?
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On April 28 2010 03:03 BrownBear wrote: I'm going to put forward Scaramanga and Scamp as our two best lynching candidates for now, and I would say definitely vote for Double Lynch. So now the question is: Scaramanga or Scamp?
Scaramanga Off of Rage's post on Scaramanga, we can tell he is, erm, raging that Scara is pretty useless as a townie. He also plays the "I'm new" card, which many other newbies have played, which doesn't really excuse the fact that I have yet to see him make one decent post of analysis. He does think the stacking of KP on Ace was a good idea, when it wasn't. IMO, we have at most 1 medic in the game, so the mafia could have chosen to stack 2 on Ace and 1 on someone else, but they chose to stack all 3, so they made kind of a bonehead decision there (not like I'm angry at them at all, but still). Thus, I think anyone who thought it was a good idea is looking more and more suspicious.
Scamp
Fewer posts than Scara, but much much more content per post, so I'm gonna go ahead and call him more active than Scaramanga was. Recently, he's provided some analysis on Bill Murray, which basically consisted of him pointing out that BM only suspects inactives. I think that's more Scamp misreading (deliberately or not) BM trying to get people to be active ingame. Asks way more questions than he provides answers. Grouped himself in with Scaramanga and Fishball, which is a retarded move regardless of your alignment, because they're pro-town. Really wasn't very active until the last couple of days, but there is at least activity, and it's at least got some content in it.
So, there's my analysis of these two. From my perspective, I'm leaning more towards lynching Scaramanga today, but I'm still open. I'm definitely voting for the double lynch.
O hai BrownBear! Oh I guess I forgot one other thing:
Thus, I say, you [Fishball] good sir are SCUM, and i say we lynch him at sunrise, unless Ace flips someone else as Mafia for sure.
But you didn't follow through with this.
And now you want to lynch Scaramanga/Scamp? Abandoned faith in your analysis? Or just too scared that when he flips town, we won't believe your preemptive defense?
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On April 28 2010 03:31 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: (I know I am doing something very similar to this as well so no need to state how hypocritical it is)
Of course. Because if you acknowledge that you have scummy behavior, it clearly means that you are definitely not scum.
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Wow. I screwed up. But Jugan, 4 other modkills, and now this? dFortunately flamewheel didn't decide to penalize us more by getting you for the strategic modkilling. That would have really hurt. Anyway, at least this gives us another chance to lynch a mafia. Not a lot of time to reach a majority, but I now think nbtnbt5 would be a good bet. Why? Well, first off, he's inactive. Like a lot of other people. But he's "interested that nai.protoss chose to analyze a really inactive poster". In itself, that sounds suspicious. Trying to hide much? Furthermore, when asked why he voted for Scaramanga, he says that he is pretty easily swayed, and cites blind support for BM's plan. Sorry, but you can't just get away with blind support. If he was truly swayed by the argument against Scaramanga (as presented by Rage methinks?), then he would know that the argument was that Scara is useless. Now, what exactly have you done, nbtnbt5? Hypocrisy much?
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^^ Yes, random protection is good. At this point, mafia can just shoot for numbers instead of useful ppl. So making a medic list would have no point, as the mafia would just shoot ppl not on it to ensure that they reduce our numbers.
Lynch suspects for tomorrow are: almost everyone. Hasn't changed much. But I wouldn't be surprised if flamewheel ends the game if the mafia makes their hits. So medics are pretty much our only hope. There's not too much analysis to do at this point. Just waiting to see what happens...
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On April 30 2010 15:56 IntoTheWow wrote: If it's not obvious enough, Protoss is Mafia.
I'm voting him and meeple as lynch targets.
I think they are solid lynch options from the info we got from the previous weeks, all the constant defending themselves and not posting for anything more than that.
If you are a townie you should do the same (and if you are not going to do the same, post why please).
*Sigh* whats the point anymore. No medic prots. 8-6 means it takes UNANIMOUS town consent to lynch a mafioso, because we need 8 votes to lynch, and the 6 mafioso are not going to vote for a mafioso if they can help it (or will switch right before there is a majority if they can). Given the large splits in the vote, it will be almost impossible to win.
Right now I'm thinking Scara, nai.Protoss, and nbtnbt5 are strong candidates for mafia. Honestly, I don't get the reasoning for you ppl who are voting Scamp. From what I can gather, his early posts were pretty pro-town, and his recent posts haven't been too alerting. Even if he is mafia, we have better people to go after. Meeple also I think is an inferior lynch candidate. Meeple's behavior is not at all pro-town. Posting only when prodded. Useless posting, and sloppy medic list making. But meeple responded reasonably to my accusations, I feel. Like motbob said, retard townie v. mafia. I'm inclined to go for retard townie here and go for the other more suspicious people instead.
Speaking of motbob, the night kills are a bit...interesting. Fishball accused Scara, and died, but motbob defended Scara as a retard townie, and died. I'm thinking that the night kills were probably attempted (partially successful?) blue snipes. Not sure what to make of the Scara business though. I'll think about this for a while, and either vote Scara/nbt or nai/nbt at this point. What do you guys think? Remember, we'll need complete unanimity to actually catch a scum.
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On April 30 2010 18:13 Scamp wrote: The way I see it, Incog, you've got the most townie credit. We should discuss all possible options and then have you make the final decision. Anyone disagree with this?
Right now Osmoses has confirmed mafia to me by voting myself and Scara without bothering to post in the thread. And while she's been useful in the past, I think we need to look at Korynne for disappearing yesterday. My case and thoughts on Bill Murray is pretty clear at the moment. Finally I still think madnessman is also a good bet.
I do need to go over the recent dead's posts, though. But I really don't think Scaramanga is a good target. Nai and nbt are okay, but I'm definitely sold on Osmoses.
Also the lack of activity is disturbing. I really hope it picks up soon.
Hmm Osmoses is interesting. But I get the same feel as meeple. Partially scummy behavior, but partially not. While I see your reasons for suspecting him, I see some redeeming value there as opposed to nbt or nai, who have done absolutely nothing. Korynne is more like you, Scamp, I feel. Pro-town pretty consistently, and I don't think her disappearance yesterday overrules her previous usefulness to the town.
I still think Scara is good. But it seems like we won't get a majority on him right now. Everyone should post their thoughts about Scaramanga here. If it looks like we can get a majority, I'll go for him. Otherwise, I think nbt and nai are still better targets. Not too much time right now, but when I get home I'll look through the votes to see if these bandwagons give me any information. The only thing I'm worried about though, is that the mafia can afford to lose one of their players and still win the game with night kills. Therefore, we need 2 correct lynches to have any chance of winning. Which makes the bandwagon effect a little harder to analyze since mafia can make us doubt our lynch choices by bandwagonning one of their own.
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