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During the MLG Winter Season Showdowns, 56 of the world's best StarCraft II players will compete in Heart of the Swarm. Each player will compete in 1 best-of-5 Showdown Match, with each winner receiving a paid trip to compete in the MLG Winter Championship. Tune in and watch every match in FREE 1080p HD at www.majorleaguegaming.com and on Twitch.TV.
2013 MLG Winter Championship/ShowdownsSchedule/VODS+ Show Spoiler +Tonight's match: Last Chance Qualifier - EU www.majorleaguegaming.com Results+ Show Spoiler +Recommended Games+ Show Spoiler +Poll: Recommend Game 1?Yes (1) 50% No (1) 50% 2 total votes Your vote: Recommend Game 1? (Vote): Yes (Vote): No
Poll: Recommend Game 2?Yes (1) 50% No (1) 50% 2 total votes Your vote: Recommend Game 2? (Vote): Yes (Vote): No
Poll: Recommend Game 3?Yes (1) 50% No (1) 50% 2 total votes Your vote: Recommend Game 3? (Vote): Yes (Vote): No
Poll: Recommend Game 4?Yes (1) 50% No (1) 50% 2 total votes Your vote: Recommend Game 4? (Vote): Yes (Vote): No
Poll: Recommend Game 5?Yes (1) 50% No (1) 50% 2 total votes Your vote: Recommend Game 5? (Vote): Yes (Vote): No
Map Pool+ Show Spoiler +Akilon Wastes Bifrost Cloud Kingdom Daybreak Entombed Valley Korhal City Newkirk City Ohana Planet S Star Station Whirlwind
Note: In each Winter Season Showdown match, both Players will veto three Maps. Format+ Show Spoiler +Invite-Only online matches; Winner takes all, Best of five games *EU Last Chance Bracket is all bo1 Prize+ Show Spoiler +The 28 winners will receive placement at the Winter Championship in Dallas from March 15-17 where they will compete with Life, Leenock, Flash and Bomber. Currently Qualified+ Show Spoiler +
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On March 01 2013 04:38 warcralft wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Just spoiled us that grubby lost to dimaga...
That's been revealed on our site and in the schedule/past VOD links portion of the thread for a few days
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how come mana and grubby are a round further than the other 4
edit: i realize that running a SE bracket with 6 ppl forces this, but how were they chosen?
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What were the results of Grubby vs Dima?
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I'm guessing seeding was done by map score. Everyone in the ro6 went 0-3, Mana (and I assume grubby) went 1-3.
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MLG why are you making it so hard for me to cover your qualifiers -,-;;
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Sucks to be grubby, now he has to win 2 matches to get in..though he did lose before, so i guess all is fair...which makes me wonder how he and mana got into the higher part
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On March 01 2013 06:17 Prplppleatr wrote: Sucks to be grubby, now he has to win 2 matches to get in..though he did lose before, so i guess all is fair...which makes me wonder how he and mana got into the higher part
Sucks? If anything he's fortunate.
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On March 01 2013 06:22 Nuubie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 06:17 Prplppleatr wrote: Sucks to be grubby, now he has to win 2 matches to get in..though he did lose before, so i guess all is fair...which makes me wonder how he and mana got into the higher part Sucks? If anything he's fortunate. Read the rest?
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You better like peeveepeez
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On March 01 2013 06:28 Prplppleatr wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 06:22 Nuubie wrote:On March 01 2013 06:17 Prplppleatr wrote: Sucks to be grubby, now he has to win 2 matches to get in..though he did lose before, so i guess all is fair...which makes me wonder how he and mana got into the higher part Sucks? If anything he's fortunate. Read the rest?
It's still wildly incorrect, what is it that you don't get?
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United States97250 Posts
On March 01 2013 06:28 Prplppleatr wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 06:22 Nuubie wrote:On March 01 2013 06:17 Prplppleatr wrote: Sucks to be grubby, now he has to win 2 matches to get in..though he did lose before, so i guess all is fair...which makes me wonder how he and mana got into the higher part Sucks? If anything he's fortunate. Read the rest? I would guess it was either randomized or seeded by their unreleased points system they used to pick the players for the showdowns
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On March 01 2013 06:31 Nuubie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 06:28 Prplppleatr wrote:On March 01 2013 06:22 Nuubie wrote:On March 01 2013 06:17 Prplppleatr wrote: Sucks to be grubby, now he has to win 2 matches to get in..though he did lose before, so i guess all is fair...which makes me wonder how he and mana got into the higher part Sucks? If anything he's fortunate. Read the rest? It's still wildly incorrect, what is it that you don't get? What is it that you don't get about "all is fair"....if you want to keep going PM me, your one line responses aren't worth being in a thread
On March 01 2013 06:33 Shellshock1122 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 06:28 Prplppleatr wrote:On March 01 2013 06:22 Nuubie wrote:On March 01 2013 06:17 Prplppleatr wrote: Sucks to be grubby, now he has to win 2 matches to get in..though he did lose before, so i guess all is fair...which makes me wonder how he and mana got into the higher part Sucks? If anything he's fortunate. Read the rest? I would guess it was either randomized or seeded by their unreleased points system they used to pick the players for the showdowns
I would assume so, but would be nice if they said how...just curious obviously
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Yeah, at the least you could have one line and one word! Right?
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On March 01 2013 06:34 Prplppleatr wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 06:31 Nuubie wrote:On March 01 2013 06:28 Prplppleatr wrote:On March 01 2013 06:22 Nuubie wrote:On March 01 2013 06:17 Prplppleatr wrote: Sucks to be grubby, now he has to win 2 matches to get in..though he did lose before, so i guess all is fair...which makes me wonder how he and mana got into the higher part Sucks? If anything he's fortunate. Read the rest? It's still wildly incorrect, what is it that you don't get? What is it that you don't get about "all is fair"....if you want to keep going PM me, your one line responses aren't worth being in a thread
So you contradict yourself, correct it, and still post.. who's not being worthy of responding..
Gogo Grubby, wonder if Nerchio declined?
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They're casting Moonglade vs Sen again?
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On March 01 2013 07:06 sitromit wrote: They're casting Moonglade vs Sen again?
It's because after Symbol v Curious there was a huge public outcry for more ZvZ.
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No Dima
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So shouldn't this be live by now?
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They said it will start shortly...i'm guessing they just had it up so that people had something to watch as they got it ready...ie they are starting a little late (it is up now) and nerchio declined his spot, which is why he isn't in it
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United States97250 Posts
On March 01 2013 07:10 catplanetcatplanet wrote:No Dima It means Dima beat Grubby and already qualified
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On March 01 2013 07:17 Shellshock1122 wrote:It means Dima beat Grubby and already qualified But couldn't attend that's why they are holding this scrimmage, isn't it ?
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France7248 Posts
Why don't you show Dimaga vs Grubby? how come Grubby and Mana have 1 less match than the others?
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It always surprises me how long the nexus cannon is active (and how far it fires).
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well they could have at least make the final game a bo3 fuck off stream schedule So sad Scoke lost =(
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Snute just won Zotac January a few hours ago. Not sure how live this is, of course.
Would be nice to know the result of Grubby vs Dimaga too.
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I am confused. Grubby vs Dimaga was supposed to be today? So why does Grubby have to play in a losers bracket before even his got to play his showmatch? (Just tuned in btw)
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On March 01 2013 07:38 TheBB wrote: Snute just won Zotac January a few hours ago. Not sure how live this is, of course. Not at all? It's never live, is it? Or did they say it was live this time?
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On March 01 2013 07:38 StarVe wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 07:38 TheBB wrote: Snute just won Zotac January a few hours ago. Not sure how live this is, of course. Not at all? It's never live, is it? I don't know, depends on what «it» is.
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ouww snute you are making me excited dont disappoint me pls gogo
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On March 01 2013 07:38 LimeNade wrote: I am confused. Grubby vs Dimaga was supposed to be today? So why does Grubby have to play in a losers bracket before even his got to play his showmatch? (Just tuned in btw)
DIMAGA won against Grubby, DIMAGA can't make it to MLG Winter Championship so MLG is doing a small Bo1 tournament with all the EU players that lost their match and the winner of this tournament get's the spot that was DIMAGA's.
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I feel like Feast needed to attack a while ago.
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This is actually a pretty interesting response to the new air meta.
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Need more ground army to buffer for colossi, I think, they got killed by lings.
Yeah, archons are good.
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So basically HotS didn't change anything. We have a zerg sitting on infestors and a protoss sitting on siege units and a bank ... zZz
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Yeah, he can't beat this. No way.
On March 01 2013 07:48 Otolia wrote: So basically HotS didn't change anything. We have a zerg sitting on infestors and a protoss sitting on siege units and a bank ... zZz The change is that it doesn't work out for the Zerg.
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why would you sit on 180 supply with 6k 4k wtf snute
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The second the high templars hit the field storm pretty much stopped him cold unfortunately. I'd be interested to see if mixing in some BL's to force toss to dump gas into tempests rather then HT's could have been effective.
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On March 01 2013 07:39 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 07:38 StarVe wrote:On March 01 2013 07:38 TheBB wrote: Snute just won Zotac January a few hours ago. Not sure how live this is, of course. Not at all? It's never live, is it? I don't know, depends on what «it» is. The event this thread is about.
Unfortunately, only one player has the bank to remax again.
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Show the resource lost tab!
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What the hell is up with Snute? So many bad engagements..
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Snute looked good at the start, shouldn't have stopped countering though. One Viper for the Ling runby for example. (or microing them) And maybe some resources wasted in Nydus. Would have been easily worth it with being on 90 drones for the whole time. Still an awesome game.
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This is going to sound crazy as hell but a sudden mutalisk switch to catch the VR's / Collosi out maybe? Snute was sitting on enough gas he could have completely tech switched at the drop of a hat.
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On March 01 2013 07:54 TheButtonmen wrote: This is going to sound crazy as hell but a sudden mutalisk switch to catch the VR's / Collosi out maybe? Snute was sitting on enough gas he could have completely tech switched at the drop of a hat. Feast had like 20 High Templar, they would have trashed the Mutas.
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On March 01 2013 07:53 Mikelius wrote: What the hell is up with Snute? So many bad engagements.. exactly and not remaxing immediately and the fungles were so ineffecient i am a little bit disappointed
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On March 01 2013 07:50 StarVe wrote:Yeah, he can't beat this. No way. Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 07:48 Otolia wrote: So basically HotS didn't change anything. We have a zerg sitting on infestors and a protoss sitting on siege units and a bank ... zZz The change is that it doesn't work out for the Zerg. Seems like it. So prismatic alignment is too strong to the former cookie-cutter BL+Infestor+Corrupter ?
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awesome Feast ! I was scared at first since Snute was kinda ahead (maybe he went too cooky with the botton right base...) and then this protoss berzerk comes in... GG !
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The solution is Nydus obviously!
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On March 01 2013 07:54 TheButtonmen wrote: This is going to sound crazy as hell but a sudden mutalisk switch to catch the VR's / Collosi out maybe? Snute was sitting on enough gas he could have completely tech switched at the drop of a hat. The problem is this burns all your money, and templar and cannons can usually defend adequately while they add phoenixes from their 3-6 stargates. Late game, as you saw, Feast's bases had 8-12 cannons and a templar at each, even if you remax on mutas it's really hard to get enough damage done before they have the defenses they need. Very well played by Feast though.
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Well not the most exciting game ever, but well played Feast. Go win that bracket.
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On March 01 2013 07:56 Otolia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 07:50 StarVe wrote:Yeah, he can't beat this. No way. On March 01 2013 07:48 Otolia wrote: So basically HotS didn't change anything. We have a zerg sitting on infestors and a protoss sitting on siege units and a bank ... zZz The change is that it doesn't work out for the Zerg. Seems like it. So prismatic alignment is too strong to the former cookie-cutter BL+Infestor+Corrupter ? Pretty much this. Between prismatic alignment and the infested terran nerf, along with tempest available to counter broodlords, lategame ZvP is really hard.
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Protoss-camp to invincible army is going to be so much fun to watch in the future!
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On March 01 2013 07:58 m0ck wrote: Protoss-camp to invincible army is going to be so much fun to watch in the future! At least for the rest of the games now, both sides have lasers. LASERS EVERYWHERRRE.
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Win Top 2 Top 4 ------------------------------------------- TitaN 29.53% 22.46% 48.01% Grubby 26.33% 21.68% 51.99% MaNa 24.88% 29.21% 45.91% Feast 19.26% 26.65% 54.09% Estimated by Aligulac. Make another.
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On March 01 2013 07:58 goswser wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 07:56 Otolia wrote:On March 01 2013 07:50 StarVe wrote:Yeah, he can't beat this. No way. On March 01 2013 07:48 Otolia wrote: So basically HotS didn't change anything. We have a zerg sitting on infestors and a protoss sitting on siege units and a bank ... zZz The change is that it doesn't work out for the Zerg. Seems like it. So prismatic alignment is too strong to the former cookie-cutter BL+Infestor+Corrupter ? Pretty much this. Between prismatic alignment and the infested terran nerf, along with tempest available to counter broodlords, lategame ZvP is really hard. Eh ! Maybe you'll get company for the next MLG is Feast can win the next PvPs.
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On March 01 2013 07:45 Mattidute wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 07:38 LimeNade wrote: I am confused. Grubby vs Dimaga was supposed to be today? So why does Grubby have to play in a losers bracket before even his got to play his showmatch? (Just tuned in btw) DIMAGA won against Grubby, DIMAGA can't make it to MLG Winter Championship so MLG is doing a small Bo1 tournament with all the EU players that lost their match and the winner of this tournament get's the spot that was DIMAGA's.
Ah cool cool. Would've been neat tho to still show their match.
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I think the Colossi + Void Ray lasers together are pretty But not when they razing my bases down
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On March 01 2013 07:53 StarVe wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 07:39 TheBB wrote:On March 01 2013 07:38 StarVe wrote:On March 01 2013 07:38 TheBB wrote: Snute just won Zotac January a few hours ago. Not sure how live this is, of course. Not at all? It's never live, is it? I don't know, depends on what «it» is. The event this thread is about. The MLG 2013 Winter Championship European Last Chance Qualifier has never been streamed before, so that doesn't help at all.
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Man, these casters have absolutely nothing interesting to say.
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On March 01 2013 07:58 m0ck wrote: Protoss-camp to invincible army is going to be so much fun to watch in the future!
Yeah, but the MU won't stay that way. Zerg don't know how to play against this at all, yet. And that's normal. They haven't had to play the aggressor for a while nor have they mastered the new mechanics of their primary spellcaster. Let alone the secondary (Viper) and the earlier siege unit (SH). So, pace zerg frustration, I think we'll all benefit from letting the meta develop for some months.
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On March 01 2013 08:03 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 07:53 StarVe wrote:On March 01 2013 07:39 TheBB wrote:On March 01 2013 07:38 StarVe wrote:On March 01 2013 07:38 TheBB wrote: Snute just won Zotac January a few hours ago. Not sure how live this is, of course. Not at all? It's never live, is it? I don't know, depends on what «it» is. The event this thread is about. The MLG 2013 Winter Championship European Last Chance Qualifier has never been streamed before, so that doesn't help at all. Smartass.
Also, "Day 21" doesn't seem to imply that something like this has never happened before, or is that just me?
@Otolia: Aligulac isn't too helpful for predicting HotS at the moment, I think.
Gogo Titan!
Oh shit. DTs, typical HotS PvP. T_T
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On March 01 2013 08:05 StarVe wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:03 TheBB wrote:On March 01 2013 07:53 StarVe wrote:On March 01 2013 07:39 TheBB wrote:On March 01 2013 07:38 StarVe wrote:On March 01 2013 07:38 TheBB wrote: Snute just won Zotac January a few hours ago. Not sure how live this is, of course. Not at all? It's never live, is it? I don't know, depends on what «it» is. The event this thread is about. The MLG 2013 Winter Championship European Last Chance Qualifier has never been streamed before, so that doesn't help at all. Smartass. Also, "Day 21" doesn't seem to imply that something like this has never happened before, or is that just me? @Otolia: Aligulac isn't too helpful for predicting HotS at the moment, I think. Gogo Titan! It's something I am thinking about. It is possible that we deploy a whole new rating for HotS recalculated from scratch or a new rating weighted by WoL results. I wish I could start to code on it right now but I am still learning the system :|
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... This is not how I wanted to find out Grubby lost vs. Dimaga, I was actually looking forward to that broadcast.
And Bo1? Lol.
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Well shit, now I don't care anymore who wins.
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Anyone understand what happened in that battle?
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On March 01 2013 08:14 Ghanburighan wrote: Anyone understand what happened in that battle? Lasers. Everywhere.
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Does top 1 or top 2 qualify?
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On March 01 2013 08:14 StarVe wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:14 Ghanburighan wrote: Anyone understand what happened in that battle? Lasers. Everywhere.
Haha that really looked rather cool to be honest :D
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On March 01 2013 08:15 Zenbrez wrote: Does top 1 or top 2 qualify? top 1
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who won betweeen TitaN and Grubby?
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On March 01 2013 08:21 StarGalaxy wrote: who won betweeen TitaN and Grubby? Grubby
OP has the results btw.
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well i wouldnt have asked if it was already there
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ahah that crazy feast build. Grubby and him are big bros i guess this is gonna be difficult,especially for feast he seems to be bad against grub :/
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(1559) Grubby 0-0 Feast (1251) ----------------------------------------- 63.20% 1-0 0-1 36.80% ----------------------------------------- 63.20% 36.80%
Median outcome: Grubby 1-0 Feast Estimated by Aligulac. Make another.
I believe in you Feast !
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On March 01 2013 08:25 StarGalaxy wrote:well i wouldnt have asked if it was already there Well, I looked after I responded and it was there, gotta give them a bit of time to update, wasn't even faster than me answering.
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Is it live ? I know the regular showdowns aren't but maybe this is.
And I think it'd had been nice to see a BO3 for the final. Btw, gogo Feast !
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On March 01 2013 08:30 Boucot wrote: Is it live ? I know the regular showdowns aren't but maybe this is.
And I think it'd had been nice to see a BO3 for the final. Btw, gogo Feast !
Grubby is streaming atm and in a PvZ, so I'm gonna go with no.
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Not like this grubby, not like this!
Is it live ? I know the regular showdowns aren't but maybe this is.
And I think it'd had been nice to see a BO3 for the final. Btw, gogo Feast ! MLG (and just about everybody else) doesn't do live matches
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Well that was an awful game. This is almost like when Sniper won the GSL
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Another DT game, it's either DTs or stargate, HotS hasn't won me over yet.
Very weird tournament but I guess Feast deserved the win the most, since he at least won three matches, seemed very random though, BO1 is just silly in SC2, especially now with a game that's even less figured out.
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Eh.. Feast is From Belgium?
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I pity MLG. I'm sure they would had preferred Grubby instead.
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France7248 Posts
Axslav, Feast is Belgian, not French
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Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p
I'm very happy to see feast at such an important event,moreover he showed an original style that i liked a lot,GL for MLG !
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On March 01 2013 08:38 Yhamm wrote:Axslav, Feast is Belgian, not French Don't complain, you may claim him now. Axslav allows it.
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Well that's cool for Feast. Hopefully he will train more to perform at the MLG. If he can avoid the Millenium curse (that's a private joke) that would be great.
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France7248 Posts
On March 01 2013 08:39 StarVe wrote:Don't complain, you may claim him now. Axslav allows it. I'm not like all those Americans who try to claim Stephano
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On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p
I'm very happy to see feast at such an important event,moreover he showed an original style that i liked a lot,GL for MLG ! It's HotS, of course everything about the stats based on WoL will be terribly wrong, that's a big fucking flaw if you wanna see it that way, but actually you should just accept that the data has little to no meaning in HotS games atm.
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On March 01 2013 08:37 StarVe wrote: Another DT game, it's either DTs or stargate, HotS hasn't won me over yet.
Very weird tournament but I guess Feast deserved the win the most, since he at least won three matches, seemed very random though, BO1 is just silly in SC2, especially now with a game that's even less figured out.
BO1 is just crap, its like flipping a coin. Didn't watch it tho but i cant imagine it were great games.
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To be honest, even as a Millenium fan (or rather mainly as a Millenium fan), I'm really surprised (and glad) to see Feast winning this bracket. He didn't really practice for HotS so far and it seems he doesn't like HotS whereas players like Grubby are really training a lot on it.
So yeah, it's a surprising result. I hope it'll give him some confidence to train more and more. He has the skill to shine.
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On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p
I'm very happy to see feast at such an important event,moreover he showed an original style that i liked a lot,GL for MLG ! Of course aligulac has its flaws but in this particular case it is very tricky. Feast and Grubby both have good WoL PvP, but they don't participate to a lot of tournaments offline for a while. Furthermore in the second part of 2012 Feast only managed to get out of major tournaments group once despite playing OK. He and Grubby aren't big online tournaments players. Lastly HotS is changing quite a bit but the DB doesn't account for the meta-game change.
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Aw, poor Grubby. He's stacking up quite a few second place finishes.
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On March 01 2013 08:39 Otolia wrote: Well that's cool for Feast. Hopefully he will train more to perform at the MLG. If he can avoid the Millenium curse (that's a private joke) that would be great.
we all know he's gonna win a game 2-0 and then lost 3-2 :p
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too bad. would have loved to see grubby there, though feast is fine as well
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On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here?
The prediction was something like 65% in favour of Grubby and 35% in favour of Feast. So if Grubby and Feast play a lot of games, if Aligulac were right you would expect to see about a third of those won by Feast. That's a pretty significant proportion. If you are about to throw a die and I say you're unlikely to throw a five or a six, and you do, is your gut reaction: (a) my prediction was flawed, (b) the die is loaded, (c) my prediction was flawed because the die is loaded or (d) that actually happens fairly often—let's try again?
Of course, you take your chances if you want to use WoL data to predict HotS games. It's not perfect, but it's not useless either.
+ Show Spoiler +Compare with...
The graph looks like it's drunk at the moment because there's not much to go on. Ah well.
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On March 01 2013 08:44 Boucot wrote: To be honest, even as a Millenium fan (or rather mainly as a Millenium fan), I'm really surprised (and glad) to see Feast winning this bracket. He didn't really practice for HotS so far and it seems he doesn't like HotS whereas players like Grubby are really training a lot on it.
So yeah, it's a surprising result. I hope it'll give him some confidence to train more and more. He has the skill to shine.
PvP in HotS is still bad in the early game. You can practice a lot of midgame/lategame stuff in PvP and you can just easily die to a smart BO, like Feast did.
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On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? The prediction was something like 65% in favour of Grubby and 35% in favour of Feast. So if Grubby and Feast play a lot of games, if Aligulac were right you would expect to see about a third of those won by Feast. That's a pretty significant proportion. If you are about to throw a die and I say you're unlikely to throw a five or a six, and you do, is your gut reaction: (a) my prediction was flawed, (b) the die is loaded, (c) my prediction was flawed because the die is loaded or (d) that actually happens fairly often—let's try again? Of course, you take your chances if you want to use WoL data to predict HotS games. It's not perfect, but it's not useless either. + Show Spoiler +Compare with... The graph looks like it's drunk at the moment because there's not much to go on. Ah well. I also get the impression some people just don't know what probabilities really are.. some act as if it's an accurate prediction of the future
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On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? The prediction was something like 65% in favour of Grubby and 35% in favour of Feast. So if Grubby and Feast play a lot of games, if Aligulac were right you would expect to see about a third of those won by Feast. That's a pretty significant proportion. If you are about to throw a die and I say you're unlikely to throw a five or a six, and you do, is your gut reaction: (a) my prediction was flawed, (b) the die is loaded, (c) my prediction was flawed because the die is loaded or (d) that actually happens fairly often—let's try again? Of course, you take your chances if you want to use WoL data to predict HotS games. It's not perfect, but it's not useless either. + Show Spoiler +Compare with... The graph looks like it's drunk at the moment because there's not much to go on. Ah well. Most people don't get probability. For example many people struggle with the concept that if you flip a coin 10 times and they all are heads the probability of getting a tails is 50% on the 11th throw. Obviously a best of one is the worst way to test a system like yours.
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On March 01 2013 10:34 feanor1 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? The prediction was something like 65% in favour of Grubby and 35% in favour of Feast. So if Grubby and Feast play a lot of games, if Aligulac were right you would expect to see about a third of those won by Feast. That's a pretty significant proportion. If you are about to throw a die and I say you're unlikely to throw a five or a six, and you do, is your gut reaction: (a) my prediction was flawed, (b) the die is loaded, (c) my prediction was flawed because the die is loaded or (d) that actually happens fairly often—let's try again? Of course, you take your chances if you want to use WoL data to predict HotS games. It's not perfect, but it's not useless either. + Show Spoiler +Compare with... The graph looks like it's drunk at the moment because there's not much to go on. Ah well. Most people don't get probability. For example many people struggle with the concept that if you flip a coin 10 times and they all are heads the probability of getting a tails is 50% on the 11th throw. Obviously a best of one is the worst way to test a system like yours. if the coin isn't rigged, because once you get 10 heads in a row(which has a 0.5^10 of happening), you may start to wonder about the fairness of the game.
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opterown
Australia54651 Posts
On March 01 2013 11:42 Rhaegar_tar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 10:34 feanor1 wrote:On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? The prediction was something like 65% in favour of Grubby and 35% in favour of Feast. So if Grubby and Feast play a lot of games, if Aligulac were right you would expect to see about a third of those won by Feast. That's a pretty significant proportion. If you are about to throw a die and I say you're unlikely to throw a five or a six, and you do, is your gut reaction: (a) my prediction was flawed, (b) the die is loaded, (c) my prediction was flawed because the die is loaded or (d) that actually happens fairly often—let's try again? Of course, you take your chances if you want to use WoL data to predict HotS games. It's not perfect, but it's not useless either. + Show Spoiler +Compare with... The graph looks like it's drunk at the moment because there's not much to go on. Ah well. Most people don't get probability. For example many people struggle with the concept that if you flip a coin 10 times and they all are heads the probability of getting a tails is 50% on the 11th throw. Obviously a best of one is the worst way to test a system like yours. if the coin isn't rigged, because once you get 10 heads in a row(which has a 0.5^10 of happening), you may start to wonder about the fairness of the game. has to happen eventually :p
sad about grubby, but oh well
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On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? I don't understand how Roro, Soulkey, Gumiho and MC have such low rankings. They have all been tearing it up recently (especially Roro) and none are ranked in the top 30 while ForGG, Stephano and Lucifron are?
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On March 01 2013 14:00 wammyz wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? I don't understand how Roro, Soulkey, Gumiho and MC have such low rankings. They have all been tearing it up recently (especially Roro) and none are ranked in the top 30 while ForGG, Stephano and Lucifron are?
Apparently Ro8+ in GSL, doing well in GSTL, etc. is worse than beating Nightend and Ret and losing to Thorzain, Naniwa, and Hero over 3 months ago.
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bo1's ? grubby should get the spot or at least bo3 he is the way better gamer loosing in bo1 is so stupid in pvp ...
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Am I the only one who's intrigued about that stargate scout by Feast vs Grubby? Come on, he clicks exactly over the Stargate and then switches to a nearby location enough to scout it... Either Grubby did that in a ladder game in the very same location (and then doing it on the finals is rather stupid) or feast was ghosting somehow.
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He said he played a lot against Grubby in the HotS ladder and went (Feast) always robo expand against him. So he was expecting some kind of stargate play (proxy or not) by Grubby. That's why is also went for DT rush.
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On March 01 2013 21:08 Qwantz wrote: Am I the only one who's intrigued about that stargate scout by Feast vs Grubby? Come on, he clicks exactly over the Stargate and then switches to a nearby location enough to scout it... Either Grubby did that in a ladder game in the very same location (and then doing it on the finals is rather stupid) or feast was ghosting somehow. Maybe there is also the fact that Feast and grubby are good friends and they lived under the same roof for a long time ?
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