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Tour de France 2015 - July 2 to July 24
This years tour has a bigger emphasis on the indivdual Time Trial compared to last years. There is a lengthy 37km flat TT, and then a 17km uphill TT, however that averages only 3.5%, which should still be favorable for the strong TT guys. This makes for a tour that on paper should suit a rider like Chris Froome really well, and be harder for guys like Quintana and Porte who are not known for their TT prowess.
Less coastal stages will likely reduce the risk of dangerous cross wins that can cause big splits in the peleton like we saw last year with Nibali and Quintana being poorly positioned and losing over 2:00 on the second stage.
What you need to know + Show Spoiler +- The Yellow Jersey : Worn by the current leader of the race, represents general time classification
- The Green Jersey : Worn by the leader of the General points classification. A sprinters ranking.
- The Polka-Dot Jersey : The jersey affiliated with the Best Climber Classification. More commonly known as "The King of The Mountains." It is very rare though that the best climber actually wins this classification though.
- The White Jersey : For the Best Young Rider of the race. Basically the yellow jersey for 25 y.o. and younger. It is possible to win both the Yellow and White Jersey.
- This Tour de France is the 103rd edition, it is 3366km long with 21 stages, and two rest days
Start List + Show Spoiler +
Contenders
General Classification + Show Spoiler + General Info for new followers: GC stands for general classification and refers to riders who are competing to win the overall tour. Generally too be a good GC rider one must be a respectable individual time trialist (a solo ride against the clock), as well as someone with very good power to weight ratio, as that determines how fast one climbs. Almost every bike tour features many summit finishes, meaning that the last climb of a summit finish is a very important opportunity to gain time on rivals.
For those unfamiliar, in a time trial, which tends to be one flatter routes, bigger guys that put out more raw power (watts) are generally favored over lighter riders that might have better power/weight (w/kg) ratio. The reason for is that weight is a small penalty on flat ground, with the big player being air resistance. At typical time trial speeds, well over 90% of your power is spent overcoming air resistance. With good position on the bike, a riders drag coefficient does not become significantly larger even if the rider is a little bigger...which means that with similar amounts of drag the rider putting out more raw power will go faster.
For this edition of the tour there are three major contenders for the overall win: Chris Froome (Sky), Alberto Contador (Tinkoff Saxo), and Nairo Quintana (Movistar). There are some other names that could threaten podium that would be a surprise to win including Richie Porte and Tejay Van Garderen of BMC, Fabio Aru of Astana, Tom Doumalin of Giant Alpecin, and Thibaut Pinot of FDJ
Chris Froome - 2013/2015 TdF champion. The strongest of all the GC riders at time trialing in large part because he is a "bigger" guy at 67kg. Like all GC riders, Froome is a very good climber, though he tends to be a little more of a diesel (ride at a consistent pace) climber than a dynamic attack/recover pure climber. This tour should suit Froome well with a longer flat time trial and then a shorter uphill time trial averaging around 3.5%
Froome looked hit and miss early season, but generally performed well in his Tour prep ride, the Criterium du Dauphine, and his form is trending upward. If I had to pick, especially given past history, I'd have to give the nod of favorite to Froome.
Nairo Quintana - The small Columbian, around 58kg, is the best pure climber in the field. Quintana however is a smaller guy, and while he has been working on it it's likely he will lose a good chunk of time to some of the other guys, especially Froome, in the longer 37km TT, and possibly some time in the shorter uphill TT. Quintana can win this, as he is a much better climber than anyone else, but he is going to need either a shocker of a TT or spectacular mountain form to do so.
Quintana's results leading into the TdF have been really good. Strong performances with many stage wins and several week long stage race wins. Form going into the tour is slightly unknown, as he has been in Columbia preparing at altitude, opting to skip most of the usual Tour "tune up" stage races.
Might get some last hints in a week as I believe he is planning to do the short Route de Sud.
Alberto Contador - The spanish is a two time TdF champion and 7 time grand tour winner. An excellent, explosive climber and a fairly good time trialist his palmares and experience are unmatched.
Contador's form coming in should be good. He had a stellar prologue ITT at the Criterium du Dauphine, and overall looked to be in good form there.
Honarable Mentions:
Richie Porte - Looked pretty good at Dauphine, excellent prologue TT, and was generally able to follow attacks well. Will probably get better from there as he hadn't raced in a long time leading into the Dauphine. Rumor has it he is lighter than he has ever been at 58kg, which could see him being dangerous.
Porte makes a nice darkhorse. He has been an excellent weeklong stage racer for a while but has yet to do excellent in a three week grand tour. However, he had previously been on team sky working as a domestique in support of Froome. Now he is on BMC as a co-leader with Porte. He was set to lead the Giro for sky last year, but some ridiculously bad flat tire timing saw him lose tremendous time before the Giro hit the mountains, and then he had a bad crash and decided to pull out.
This is essentially Porte's debut attempt at a Grand Tour as a team leader.
Tejay Van Garderen - The current best hope for a US winner. Tejay is a strong climber and very good time trialist, but often struggles to respond to attacks or explosive finishes Does much better as a rhythm climber. The Tour suits him best, but it's still a tall ask for a Van Garderen win. Jury is still out on his form, he has had one really good and one really bad day so far at the Tour de Suisse after a long absence from racing.
Fabio Aru - Another outside shot. Aru has been gradually emerging as an overall Grand Tour contender over the past few years. Last year at the Giro he rode a better last week than anyone, and while Contador had built up a nice margin Aru was cutting into that.
I don't see him as the consistent, complete package needed to win the Tour yet, and he didn't look all that good at the Dauphine; but he is another rider that could suprise.
Thibaut Pinot - The best hope of the french. In the past Pinot has been a good climber with a pretty weak TT. He was been working very hard on that the past few years, and has done quite well in TTs this year, including a legitimate win on a flat TT. If he can produce another ride like that on the flat 37km TT, he could be in the mix.
His form so far this year has been generally good, but perhaps lacked a little bit of consistency.
Green Jersey + Show Spoiler + Peter Sagan - Don't think I need to say anything else. Sagan doesn't crash, and no else is going to get the jersey from him.
For this new to the Tour, the green jersey is basically the "sprinters" point competition. Only a handful of guys can actually win overall, but there are other different styles of riding and most of these riders target wins on individual days (stages). The sprinters jersey awards points for high stage finishes, and at some intermediate points in stages. Sagan is basically unbeatable here because he is a top 10 sprinter outright on a flat stage, but can get over some serious hills (but not long alpine climbs) that the other sprinters have no chance on. So Sagan does okay on flat sprint stages, and then mops up crazy points along all the other hilly or medium mountain type days.
Stage Winners + Show Spoiler +
Feel free to tell me to add or change something in the OP.
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Fantasy League!
This year teamliquid is doing a fantasy league run like last year over on velogames. Anyone is welcome, and encouraged, to join the team. Format is pretty simple, you get 100 pts to pick 8 riders: 2 GC/All Rounder guys, 1 climbers, 1 sprinter, 3 domestique/breakaway guys, and one wildcard. Points are scored for stage places, GC placings, Green Jersey standings, Mountains standings, top positions over all Cat 1 and HC climbs, and then some other small points for being in breaks and 'assisting' riders.
Details can be found on the website.
If you wish to join the team it's pretty simple:
1)Head to www.velogames.com 2)Create an account and make your team 3)Go to SignUp and enter our league code, 341903390217 4) Hit submit
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Mountains Challenge
For anyone interested that rides bikes and feels inspired watching the best do their thing, I'd challenge everyone to get out and do an epic ride in the hills (or on the flats if you have no hills) and post them up. I'll say the challenge opens on the 15th and closes on the 19th.
There will be three categories for:
1) Longest Duration 2) Most Elevation Gain 3) Highest VAM on a climb greater than 300m in elevation change (A 4-6 min climb will be accepted in lieu of a 300m+ climb, but with a 10% reduction to account for the shorter duration)
So even if you don't have hours of time you can take a stab at number 3. Go out, grab your phone or GPS, and post em up to strava. Small prizes TBA will be associated with each category.
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Just some notes:
- Froome has won more than one Tour, he also won last year not only in 2013 ;-) - Porte already debuted as a Grand Tour leader (Giro remember?) - I reckon Bardet will probably do better than Tejay (with TVG is every year the same, I so hope he shows me wrong, no luck so far :'( ) - Don't forget Nibali will be there to help Aru/make a surprise (realistically, he should be nowhere near the form needed to be a contender for himself but can be a decent help to Aru. Regarding Aru, don't forget Nibali's performances these past years, awful until the big race then puft great. Aru can be going for something similar, although I agree with your assessment that he is probably a little bit inconsistent still) - Personally I'm eager to see what will D. Martin do. Plus Yates and Meintjes should also provide some youth unpredictability and fun attacks.
Otherwise really good thread, as usual good job!
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Should be good, lets get some fantasy TdF going like last year!
I think Bardet and Dan Martin also have goods odds, showing great form in the Criterium. Surprisingly though, it feels like we have fewer favorites than the usual years.
No really really difficult stages, but plenty of moderate difficulty. Stage 5,7,8,9,12,15,18,19,20 all mountains, 9 stages is more than we usually see, that's for sure.
Upon closer inspection: -Stage 5 isn't really a mountain stage (why it isn't called hilly is beyond me). I guess you have a couple punchy hills that Valverde and Purito like, but the finish is enough away, that I really can't see a solo finish from 14km away. -Stage 7 will be an interesting first test, with a 12km @ 6.5%, and a 7km descent to the finish line -Stage 8 is a tough one, but it really depends how hard the peleton rides. Tormalet is probably the 2nd most difficult climb in the tour of paper, but it happens so early on in the stage, and is also followed by a relatively easy category 2 climb of only 5% for 8km, but also 2 col's of 8% for 7-8km. If the teams end up valuing this stage, it's likely that the winner here will win the tour. Not a single flat km for the last 110km. -Stage 9 is too difficult to analyze, idk. Mountain finish on a 10km climb at a steady 7.2% makes me think that most wont attack here after being tired from the day before, and also from there's no steep part to launch an attack from. That said you have two shorter and steeper climbs of 8.2% and 8.5% before hand, and that could really shake it up beforehand. I don't think the first two category 1 climbs of the stage will do much. -Stage 12, here we go! The second most famous, and the most difficult climb that's ever included in the tour. That's right, a long flat stage in preparation a Mont Ventoux summit finish. A 16km climb at almost 9%, as always, this is an absolute treat. A few kilometers before the finish line we see everyone together, and then boom, 10 minute deficits at the finish line. -Stage 15, a stage for the descenders. A stage similar to stage 8, but shorter climbs, and unfortunately we get to see the ascent of Grand Colombier from the easier side, but that also means we're going to see a hella of a difficult descent down the trickier side. If you're a GC guy with good descending skills, I think attacking half way up the Grand Colombier is a good time go, depends on the state of the race though -Stage 17, have we seen this climb in the Tour before? This is probably my favorite stage of the Tour, and maybe the best I've ever seen. It's almost like a Mont Ventoux with a 7km downhill breaking it up in half, and it only gets steeper as you get closer to the finish. Very exciting, that descent in the middle lends to so many possibilities, I simply hope the GC will be close enough to make use of the relatively minor gaps that can be created here. -Stage 19, a weird stage with strange terrain. A very steep start to the summit finish, but flattens out eventually, not sure if someone would dare attacking there, though it could really break it up if successful. I think that someone who is weaker can lose a lot of time here, but I don't expect a 2nd or 3rd place GC contender to make up a lot of time here. -Stage 20, meeeeh. I guess that this is the Queen Stage? I dunno, Joux Plane is a very difficult climb, and I suppose after a 4th straight day of climbing it will be tough. I suppose they were going for four tough days instead of one crazy one.
All in all though, it's pretty good. The route looks good, I suppose the main bad thing is that with the Olympics this year, a lot of cyclists need to save something for that, so that's why we don't see everyone here or going all out like Nibali. I'm excited!
edit: And get ready for my boy Sagan, this will be his strongest Tour de France ever. 4 stages and green jersey is my prediction. PS: Nobody but me is allowed to have him on their fantasy team.
edit2: You messed up the title For the past 5 years it was always Tour de France ####, and you flipped it.
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Alright, I made a fantasy league on velogames.com as last year.
League Name: TeamLiquid Riders League Code: 341903390217
VIEW LEAGUE
Please sign up, you can change your players as much as you like until July 2nd. Same as last year, you have 100 points to pick 9 riders: 2 all rounders, 2 climbers, 1 sprinter, 3 domestiques, 1 wildcard.
My team name is Hors Categorie as last year, get ready to see me in first a lot Hope we get more than the 11 sign ups last year! I've spent a surprising amount of time making this team optimal, and ugh, there's some decisions that are so difficult for me. Second sprinter or another GC guy that will end 5th-15th, mmmm.
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- Froome has won more than one Tour, he also won last year not only in 2013 ;-)
Whoops. Fixed.
- Porte already debuted as a Grand Tour leader (Giro remember?)
I acknowledge this in the write up. I talk about him doing the Giro but having his quest derailed early. Say it's 'essentially' his debut attempt because he got derailed at the Giro before he ever got a chance to be tested.
- I reckon Bardet will probably do better than Tejay (with TVG is every year the same, I so hope he shows me wrong, no luck so far :'( ) '
Will be interesting. As good of a climber as Bardet is, I see him as more of a stage winner type guy than serious overall contender. I don't think he TT's that well, and has a much weaker team around him than TJ. I agree TJ is kinda the same every year (though he was going well last year, but not good enough to win), but I'll take you up on this one and say I bet TJ finishes higher than Bardet.
- Don't forget Nibali will be there to help Aru/make a surprise (realistically, he should be nowhere near the form needed to be a contender for himself but can be a decent help to Aru. Regarding Aru, don't forget Nibali's performances these past years, awful until the big race then puft great. Aru can be going for something similar, although I agree with your assessment that he is probably a little bit inconsistent still)
Aru will be interesting. Guy definitely has potential. He went as well as anybody the last week of of the Giro in 2015' except maybe Kruisjwijk, so he can definitely last the whole time. It's just a question of is his form this year good enough, and can he maintain consistency. A few rough spots early on did damage to him in 2015's Giro.
With respect to Nibali, I still don't know if he intentionally just screws around in stage races and never plays his cards, or if it's just somehow related to the way he trains. It's weird to see him go so hopelessly in races until the GT and then be pretty solid. Or in the case of the Giro completely lackluster until the last two days and then suddenly quite good.
- Personally I'm eager to see what will D. Martin do. Plus Yates and Meintjes should also provide some youth unpredictability and fun attacks.
Definitely. Martin has gone very nicely. It will be interesting to see if he plays his card more as a GC guy, or goes on the hunt for stages. He's looked strong in the one week races, especially the Dauphine.
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On June 19 2016 11:07 FiWiFaKi wrote:Alright, I made a fantasy league on velogames.com as last year. League Name: TeamLiquid Riders League Code: 341903390217 VIEW LEAGUEPlease sign up, you can change your players as much as you like until July 2nd. Same as last year, you have 100 points to pick 9 riders: 2 all rounders, 2 climbers, 1 sprinter, 3 domestiques, 1 wildcard. My team name is Hors Categorie as last year, get ready to see me in first a lot Hope we get more than the 11 sign ups last year! I've spent a surprising amount of time making this team optimal, and ugh, there's some decisions that are so difficult for me. Second sprinter or another GC guy that will end 5th-15th, mmmm.
Sweet. When I'm back I'll update on of the reserved posts with info about this.
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Tour de Suisse has also ended tonight today. I'm having trouble comparing the Dauphine with it since the rider caliber was so different, but I definitely don't see TJV as a podium contender after his Suisse performance.
And man, Columbia is taking over, though it's odd to me that other South America riders aren't being picked up.
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Do you think this will be an action tour ? or a snoozefest with 25 min GC win ?
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On June 20 2016 03:30 bluzi wrote: Do you think this will be an action tour ? or a snoozefest with 25 min GC win ?
Well a more than 15 minute GC win will probably never happen at a Grand Tour again.
I think it's hard to tell right now. The organizers made the tour kind of balanced, instead in of ramping up the difficulty with time, which increases the odds of someone like Froome just playing defence after winning Mont Ventoux or something on stage 12.
I don't think stage 20 is a good one to get time on, and I'm quite iffy about 19 as well. In that regard the Giro was better imo, but we have all the big names here, moreso than any other grand tour, so for that I think it's worth tuning in.
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On June 20 2016 03:10 FiWiFaKi wrote: Tour de Suisse has also ended tonight today. I'm having trouble comparing the Dauphine with it since the rider caliber was so different, but I definitely don't see TJV as a podium contender after his Suisse performance.
And man, Columbia is taking over, though it's odd to me that other South America riders aren't being picked up.
Yea and the Route de Sud was even worse. It's like Quintana vs B listers. That said, an outright win on a TT is always nice for a GC guy.
TJV I see as a longshot for podium. If we lose one or two of the main players from crashing or something, then I could see TJV sneaking in...but that said last year was a MUCH more favorable opportunity for him and he was holding onto third very tenuously before he got ill. I'd give him like a 5% chance of a podium finish.
I was rather impressed by Talansky at Suisse. First life I've seen from him since what, 2014? Don't think he will be a factor at the tour, if he is even riding it, but maybe could get a stage win under the right circumstances.
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On June 20 2016 03:30 bluzi wrote: Do you think this will be an action tour ? or a snoozefest with 25 min GC win ?
25 min GC win? Did you mean 2:30 second win? It's been decades since somebody won by 25+ mins,
Last big margin was the 2014 Tour where Nibali was on crazy good form and everyone else that was a top GC guy crashed out so he just cruised to a win.
Nairo is certainly going to give Froome a hell of a fight, and Contador and possibly Porte may also prove to be serious contenders. If none of those guys make mistakes and lose time on the flatter stages this should be a really good Tour in my opinion.
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Looking at stages a little more now.
Stage 1 looks like a sprint stage. Stage 2 appears to end with 2km around 6.5%. Punchy kind of finish. Stage 3 looks like sprint finish on an uphill drag. Stage 4 looks rather the same Stage 5 I'm seeing different stuff than you. It's hilly all the way to the finish. With a 3.3km @ 6% summiting 2.5km from the finish. Stage 6 looks like a sprint stage Stage 7 pretty much seeing what you talked about. Stage 8 generally agree. If it gets ridden really hard, a bad day here will absolutely end your Tour. If it's ridden at tempo most of the way then shouldn't be too much in the way of timegaps, guys should be able to get back on or close coming down the descent. Stage 9 In agreement about the stage depending on how previous day went. Not so sure about attacks though, they may come. 7.2% is decent grade, enough that drafting is saving you at best 2-3%. If someone is feeling good coming off 8 and sensing others are not, it's quite possible to see some action in my opinion. Probably a good breakaway stage, especially if 8 is hard Stage 10 - Sprint, but gotta make it over 2km of 6.5% with 9km to go. Stage 11 - Looks like a sprint stage Stage 12 - Fireworks up a massive mountain. Bad day here is lights out Stage 13 - TT of who is not too tired Stage 14 - Sprint Stage 15 - Lots of little climbs early at modest gradients, but then a longer one of 13km of 7% followed by 8.5 of 7.5% with a descent to a short finishing kick. Good breakaway stage, and maybe some small GC gaps. Stage 16 - Flatter stage with some sort of hill at the finish. Maybe a sprint stage, or maybe a stage for puncheurs based on exactly what that is at the end. Stage 17 - Interesting stage. 1500m of climbing around 8% broken up with a descent in the middle. Good options for the breakaway, and possibly for the GC guys depending on technicality of the descent. Stage 18 - Uphill TT, but only 3.5% average. Definitely more on the TT end of things than the climber end of things, but has some steep sections. I'm honestly not sure who is favored for the stage win on this. Stage 19 - Summit finish going steep, flatter, somewhat steep. If you have the legs and the group is broken up and attack near the bottom could do a lot, but with teammates around attack probably won't go far. Stage probably plays out in the last 3-4km Stage 20 - Fourth hard day in a row. Who's doing well with energy could play a role, but with the descent small time gaps can likely be pulled back. However, the climb is long and hard so guys that crack too soon could lose serious time. Stage 21 - The usual Circuit parade with Kittel victory.
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On June 20 2016 07:27 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2016 03:10 FiWiFaKi wrote: Tour de Suisse has also ended tonight today. I'm having trouble comparing the Dauphine with it since the rider caliber was so different, but I definitely don't see TJV as a podium contender after his Suisse performance.
And man, Columbia is taking over, though it's odd to me that other South America riders aren't being picked up. Yea and the Route de Sud was even worse. It's like Quintana vs B listers. That said, an outright win on a TT is always nice for a GC guy. TJV I see as a longshot for podium. If we lose one or two of the main players from crashing or something, then I could see TJV sneaking in...but that said last year was a MUCH more favorable opportunity for him and he was holding onto third very tenuously before he got ill. I'd give him like a 5% chance of a podium finish. I was rather impressed by Talansky at Suisse. First life I've seen from him since what, 2014? Don't think he will be a factor at the tour, if he is even riding it, but maybe could get a stage win under the right circumstances.
Yeah, Stage 4 was hilarious to me. Easiest 1-2 in the life of Movistar. I didn't watch much of it befores watching the last 3-5km of each stage.
I dunno, the one thing that BMC have going for them is that have the TVG + Richie combo, which will be a nice help in mountain stages. We will see, my prediction for TJV to end 9-10th, and Richie 5-6th.
The one rider I'm very excited for is Alaphilipe, I've been very impressed with him in the last two months, but not sure how worn out he is, really considering him for my fantasy.
edit: Ugh, this fantasy is driving me insane. Currently spending 30~ points on my all rounders, and 14~ on my 3 unclassified riders (I think I've found a good bunch). I'm trying to stretch the remaining 56 points on my last 4 riders really far. I am excited talking to you guys once you make your team.
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On June 20 2016 08:20 FiWiFaKi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2016 07:27 L_Master wrote:On June 20 2016 03:10 FiWiFaKi wrote: Tour de Suisse has also ended tonight today. I'm having trouble comparing the Dauphine with it since the rider caliber was so different, but I definitely don't see TJV as a podium contender after his Suisse performance.
And man, Columbia is taking over, though it's odd to me that other South America riders aren't being picked up. Yea and the Route de Sud was even worse. It's like Quintana vs B listers. That said, an outright win on a TT is always nice for a GC guy. TJV I see as a longshot for podium. If we lose one or two of the main players from crashing or something, then I could see TJV sneaking in...but that said last year was a MUCH more favorable opportunity for him and he was holding onto third very tenuously before he got ill. I'd give him like a 5% chance of a podium finish. I was rather impressed by Talansky at Suisse. First life I've seen from him since what, 2014? Don't think he will be a factor at the tour, if he is even riding it, but maybe could get a stage win under the right circumstances. Yeah, Stage 4 was hilarious to me. Easiest 1-2 in the life of Movistar. I didn't watch much of it befores watching the last 3-5km of each stage. I dunno, the one thing that BMC have going for them is that have the TVG + Richie combo, which will be a nice help in mountain stages. We will see, my prediction for TJV to end 9-10th, and Richie 5-6th. The one rider I'm very excited for is Alaphilipe, I've been very impressed with him in the last two months, but not sure how worn out he is, really considering him for my fantasy. edit: Ugh, this fantasy is driving me insane. Currently spending 30~ points on my all rounders, and 14~ on my 3 unclassified riders (I think I've found a good bunch). I'm trying to stretch the remaining 56 points on my last 4 riders really far. I am excited talking to you guys once you make your team.
Can you really make a team yet? I haven't seen confirmed rosters anywhere yet
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On June 20 2016 08:42 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2016 08:20 FiWiFaKi wrote:On June 20 2016 07:27 L_Master wrote:On June 20 2016 03:10 FiWiFaKi wrote: Tour de Suisse has also ended tonight today. I'm having trouble comparing the Dauphine with it since the rider caliber was so different, but I definitely don't see TJV as a podium contender after his Suisse performance.
And man, Columbia is taking over, though it's odd to me that other South America riders aren't being picked up. Yea and the Route de Sud was even worse. It's like Quintana vs B listers. That said, an outright win on a TT is always nice for a GC guy. TJV I see as a longshot for podium. If we lose one or two of the main players from crashing or something, then I could see TJV sneaking in...but that said last year was a MUCH more favorable opportunity for him and he was holding onto third very tenuously before he got ill. I'd give him like a 5% chance of a podium finish. I was rather impressed by Talansky at Suisse. First life I've seen from him since what, 2014? Don't think he will be a factor at the tour, if he is even riding it, but maybe could get a stage win under the right circumstances. Yeah, Stage 4 was hilarious to me. Easiest 1-2 in the life of Movistar. I didn't watch much of it befores watching the last 3-5km of each stage. I dunno, the one thing that BMC have going for them is that have the TVG + Richie combo, which will be a nice help in mountain stages. We will see, my prediction for TJV to end 9-10th, and Richie 5-6th. The one rider I'm very excited for is Alaphilipe, I've been very impressed with him in the last two months, but not sure how worn out he is, really considering him for my fantasy. edit: Ugh, this fantasy is driving me insane. Currently spending 30~ points on my all rounders, and 14~ on my 3 unclassified riders (I think I've found a good bunch). I'm trying to stretch the remaining 56 points on my last 4 riders really far. I am excited talking to you guys once you make your team. Can you really make a team yet? I haven't seen confirmed rosters anywhere yet
Yeah, if you go to the website it lists the riders by their cost and everything. Opened on the 17th I believe. I mean I guess it might be subject to change, but the Tour does start in 13 days, so they shouldn't keep it completely last minute. I haven't been looking for the announcements of the riders, just found the info there.
All the riders might not be there yet though, as not every team has 9 people yet, but I'm not sure if some riders are just unpickable.
edit: To your previous post, I don't really know what to think of Talansky. He was alright at the Tour de Suisse, but he got really broken down on the last day, losing 56 seconds on riders like Barguil, Rui Costa, Pantano, Izaguirre, Lopez, and TVG. You know, these are riders that I'd expect 1-2~ of to get top 10 at the Tour.
I expect the top 5 to be Froome, Quintana, Contador, Porte, and Aru, they to me are far and away the favorites. And after that, I'd expect top 10 placements from Pinot, Bardet, Valverde, Nibali, TJVG... And you still have so many strong riders left, whether it's Barguil, Zakarin (maybe), Alaphilippe, Dumoulin (who's definitely coming), Dan Martin after an amazing Dauphine performance, Louis Meintjes, not to mention all the "domestiques" that the Sky power house is bringing here. So in that regard, losing 56 seconds on a stage with riders that are only sparsely listed here... I dunno, the fact that it was a very weak line-up for the Tour de Suisse is probably closer to the truth than an on form Talansky.
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Well my team is made. Might still make a change or two, but feel good about most it. Mostly just agonizing over what sort of strategy I wanted to go for in terms of who costs how much and the like. Lots of agonizing about weather to go with the type of rider I'm pretty sure will go at least 1000+ pts and extra lesser names, or a more balanced team.
Simple example being do you take a guy you know should do really well, like Froome, and score 1500-2500 pts, but then accept that you might not get some other good guys down the line, or go for more balance with 2-3 solid GC guys that won't necessarily score huge points, but should rake in something decent.
I feel pretty good about my rider picks, and that they will do okay, just have to see if I got it right in terms of optimization.
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On June 20 2016 08:49 FiWiFaKi wrote:
edit: To your previous post, I don't really know what to think of Talansky. He was alright at the Tour de Suisse, but he got really broken down on the last day, losing 56 seconds on riders like Barguil, Rui Costa, Pantano, Izaguirre, Lopez, and TVG. You know, these are riders that I'd expect 1-2~ of to get top 10 at the Tour.
I expect the top 5 to be Froome, Quintana, Contador, Porte, and Aru, they to me are far and away the favorites. And after that, I'd expect top 10 placements from Pinot, Bardet, Valverde, Nibali, TJVG... And you still have so many strong riders left, whether it's Barguil, Zakarin (maybe), Alaphilippe, Dumoulin (who's definitely coming), Dan Martin after an amazing Dauphine performance, Louis Meintjes, not to mention all the "domestiques" that the Sky power house is bringing here. So in that regard, losing 56 seconds on a stage with riders that are only sparsely listed here... I dunno, the fact that it was a very weak line-up for the Tour de Suisse is probably closer to the truth than an on form Talansky.
Yea, I don't see Talansky having an especially high overall placing. I'd be utterly surprised at a top 5, and very impressed by a top 10.
I see him as a guy that might very well have a bad day, drop down the standings a bit, and then go breakaway hunting for a mountain stage win. Against the right break composition on a day where the peleton lets the break go I think he could be extremely dangerous.
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