|
United Kingdom3482 Posts
I'm not so sure Hiro is scum. I think either Dittert or Xatalos are scum and whether Hiro is scum or not depends a lot on Dittert's alignment. I think what is interesting is that Hiro went from thinking Xatalos is reasonably town to picking him out as scum at the beginning of day 2. I haven't quite figured out his motivations for this yet and there is definitely a town explanation for this as well as a scum one.
Dittert is Scum If Dittert is scum it makes a lot of sense that Hiro is scum as well. Hiro makes a case for someone who is weak when his team mate is looking to get lynched. I think this is probably the case both ways (If Hiro ends up getting lynched and flips scum Dittert is probably scum too).
Dittert is Town However, if Dittert is town then it makes no sense for Hiro to be scum, he completely shuns the current consensus that Dittert is scum and goes for someone else to get lynched when it makes no difference to him. Therefore if Dittert is town I'm fairly sure Hiro is town. Consequently this makes me think Xatalos is scum.
So while your Hiro case has merit Acrofales, I still think Xatalos is the scummier of him and Dittert leaving Hiro as town.
|
I have yet to read the last two pages in the thread, I'm just posting to say that I have some bad news. It seems that I need to exam an extra course in school due to me sucking at counting how many courses I need to take to quallify for collage. I'm gonna have to study a full high school course in less than a month. This wouldn't be a problem if it wasn't for the fact that I am also working, which I imagine will leave me with very little free time. There is a possibility that I will have to be replaced, but I'll at least try to stay in the game. I haven't started studying yet(I realised all of this earlier today), and I don't really know how hard the course is. So, if I start to go more inactive, would you want me to be replaced or would that be more hurtful for town? I would imagine it to be way harder to make a read on two people playing the same role, since the one replacing me could have a way different playstyle than me. What do you guys think?
Also, DON'T MAKE THIS A HUGE DISCUSSION. It would be a waste. Just leave a short comment on what you think I should do. Don't make this silly question take alot of space. As I said, I'm not a 100% sure that I even need to be replaced.
|
Someone convinced me not to give up yet, so here goes...
Why Am I Town?
I'm the first to admit I have had many faults, the greatest of which are these:
- Tunnel Vision: ignoring a lot of stuff, especially alternative explanations for events (such as yomi voting for Willz to save himself not being a Mafia-specific action) - Confirmation Bias: focusing on proving myself right more than on finding the truth (I had a pretty hard time letting go off my ArcticFox suspicions, although my reasons for suspecting him weren't very good to begin with) - Paranoia: mentioning every little suspicious detail from pretty much every player so far (I even mentioned specifically Acrofales for lurking the Day 1 lynch, although he was far from the only lurker in that situation and wasn't even otherwise suspicious at all) - Stupidity: misunderstanding rules, posts and even pronouns (my greatest moment of stupidity was thinking yomi claimed doctor while he was just talking in general)
Through these faults I have caused anti-town atmosphere, which is an understandable reason to believe I would be Mafia. But I want you to take a moment and consider: is that the only explanation?
- Tunnel Vision is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia would be happy to lynch any townie, not a specific townie - Confirmation Bias is plausibly a Mafia trait, since Mafia know the roles of everyone and thus want to prove themselves right instead of finding the truth - Paranoia is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia don't have any need to be suspicious of their fellow players or to gather too much attention - Stupidity is neither a town or Mafia trait
In conclusion, only one of the reasons for my sometimes anti-town play is a Mafia trait. Even so, it's not exclusively a Mafia trait, but rather a trait of a person emotional about something (in this case, lynching Mafia).
Now, what pro-town have I done to redeem these faults?
- Activity: I have posted a lot, more than anyone else - perhaps not as much useful content as Acrofales or KharadBanar, but definitely among the most even in that category - Transparency: I have been like an open book, giving my opinion on everything without hesitation, never being afraid of suspicious slips or being proved wrong in the end - Focus on Mafia Hunting: most of my posts consist of accusing a player, noticing suspicious behaviour, giving my Mafia reads, demanding explanations, demanding activity or analyzing possible Mafia&Mafia / town & Mafia / town & town interactions between two players
All of my anti-town plays are (at least somewhat) explainable from a town perspective, but are these pro-town plays explainable from a Mafia perspective?
- Activity is definitely not a Mafia trait: Mafia would prefer to fly under the radar and plan inside their own chat, not to be on the spotlight of the discussion all the time - Transparency is the opposite of a Mafia trait: Mafia would never want to give more information and thoughts to the discussion than necessary - Focus on Mafia Hunting is again the opposite of a Mafia trait: Mafia want to delay and distract Mafia hunting, not to focus on it in their own posting
So none of these pro-town plays are really explainable from a Mafia perspective. Of course Mafia would love to look as pro-town as possible, but not at the cost of losing the game because of it. Willingness to establish your innocence at the cost of advancing town agenda and probably having to bus your teammates along the way is not strong Mafia play - it's ineffective Mafia play.
Who To Lynch?
Earlier I mentioned my confidence in either Dittert, yomi or HiroPro being Mafia. I have been looking through their filters a bit and come to the conclusion that the most likely Mafia would actually be HiroPro. yomi has had both anti-town and pro-town plays, and Dittert... He hasn't really played pro-town at all, but his tunneling and going against the flow of the thread could be just dumb town play... Or he could be the teammate of HiroPro. I'm not saying either Dittert or yomi is a town read for me, but I can't find likely explanations for many of HiroPro's plays from a town perspective.
On April 13 2012 08:17 HiroPro wrote: I voted for Xatalos because the case he made was bad. The case he made after that was good and showed me that he was reading and thinking things through.
First of all, why would making a bad case be lynch-worthy? It's actually more likely for townies than Mafia to make bad cases, since Mafia have more information available (they know who are town and more easily see the townie perspective for posting things). So, HiroPro's case is actually pretty bad, which is hypocritical since he accuses me of posting a bad case. However, it doesn't look like he believed in his own case even himself, since when I posted a slightly better case he just unvoted immediately and jumped on the next possible bandwagon I had created. Funny, considering he later accused me of "throwing blame around and seeing where it sticks". Another hypocritical comment from him, seeing as he was himself searching for a bandwagon with enough support and not searching for Mafia. When it looked like the vonKlaust case wasn't getting support either, he quickly stepped off of it.
On April 14 2012 07:51 HiroPro wrote: yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion.
HiroPro defends Dittert and attacks yomi. Considering the possibility that HiroPro & Dittert are Mafia, this would make a lot of sense - diverting suspicion to yomi of the two "most suspicious players" at the time. HiroPro's hypocrisy comes through again: he claims yomi is scummy for "calling out people as Mafia without solid reasoning", yet he himself calls yomi out as Mafia without much of any reasoning (except yomi's lack of solid reasoning).
On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote: The Blue Shift
Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell.
The Distraction Factor
When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch.
##Vote: Xatalos
This is actually HiroPro's most pro-town post in the game, although it isn't without issues either. "The Blue Shift" is a valid point (at least to some extent), but "The Distraction Factor" is again hypocritical. HiroPro claims I "want to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that I think town would be willing to follow through on". This is exactly what HiroPro has been doing: throwing accusations without much basis, creating and jumping on bandwagons eagerly but without conviction (backing off fast if it doesn't take fire), focusing on finding a good bandwagon instead of searching for Mafia. Another suspicious thing about this post is the timing: if HiroPro and Dittert are a Mafia team, it would make a lot of sense to divert the vote from Dittert to me like this. If Dittert is town, however, the timing of this post would make HiroPro less suspicious (why risk switching the vote off of a townie who has already pretty much given up?). The logical conclusion is that most likely HiroPro and Dittert are both Mafia or both town. Both Mafia seems more likely considering HiroPro's weird trust in Dittert (whom most of the town find suspicious).
##Unvote ##Vote: HiroPro
|
Okay, I really don't want to be the only one talking here. There is quite a lot of WIFOM involved with my analysis and I'm sure other people, in addition to imallison, can find holes in it that make a lot of sense.
Now, back to imallison. I agree. When I was on the last part I basically forgot about the connections: I used the connections to wittle down the suspect list and then used straight up filter analysis to conclude that HiroPro was the most scummy. However, you are right that if HiroPro flips red, then Dittert is quite probably scum. Lets consider it again.
If Dittert is town and HiroPro is scum, then HiroPro has done something that goes directly against my initial assumption number 2: mafia won't bother making new cases when they can bandwagon a townie. There are some high wifom reasons for doing so, but when looking at when HiroPro makes the case, I cannot really get them. At that point, I had fingered Xata as suspicious and Yomi was still having at him. However, most of the "Xata is suspicious" posts came later.
However, if Dittert is red then my reasoning is wrong somewhere in the analysis. Lets go through the HiroPro-Dittert connections and see what makes sense.
HiroPro-Dittert-Xatalos. HiroPro's case makes no sense. HiroPro-Dittert-Yomi. The Dittert-Yomi connection seems to preclude this possibility. Unless I am wrong about their tunneling each other at the start of the game. It seems farfetched. HiroPro-Dittert-willz. Seems unlikely given Dittert's posts.
However, I admit that I may have used faulty logic somewhere in concluding Dittert is innocent, as Dittert, HiroPro and anybody else could make a lot of sense:
HiroPro has defended Dittert at almost every opportunity. Dittert has acted very vague on HiroPro: there is some soft-defense in there. Especially when answering Xatalos. I kinda like that connection.
I will go back to the Dittert option and have a good look at my logic.
In the meantime, imallison, it is ALSO possible that HiroPro is innocent and you are scum. You only lost the race for my vote by a very small margin. I would love to hear people's opinions of HiroPro and imallison. They have REALLY been flying under the radar for far too long.
|
EBWOP: I also dislike the logic in your last post. You don't actually ever convince me that Dittert or HiroPro is town and I should move back to Xatalos. Instead, you bring up a good point for suspecting Dittert again, but still stick to Xatalos. That is your good right, but what makes you like Xatalos for a lynch?
|
I read Xatalos' post. I am still uncertain about his alignment, but I do agree that there are better scumreads out there and moving off Dittert may not have been the best thing to do today.
I have to go cook and eat. I promise to be back well before the lynch and would love to see more people, other than Xatalos synthesise their thoughts on Dittert and HiroPro. PLEASE do not focus only on the connection. We can only lynch one person today and unless you have an excellent reason for discarding one (or all) of: Xatalos, HiroPro and Dittert, or an excellent reason for suspecting someone else, please keep this focused. We only have 3 more hours until the lynch.
@vonKlaust: I am sorry to hear you may have to abandon the game. I would love to hear your thoughts on Dittert, Xatalos and HiroPro.
|
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 17 2012 05:01 Acrofales wrote: EBWOP: I also dislike the logic in your last post. You don't actually ever convince me that Dittert or HiroPro is town and I should move back to Xatalos. Instead, you bring up a good point for suspecting Dittert again, but still stick to Xatalos. That is your good right, but what makes you like Xatalos for a lynch?
I still think that Xatalos has managed to distract and confuse everyone with his posting. Every time it's been pointed out to him he has increased his posting. He has accused absolutely everyone of seeming scummy and tunnelled on an exceptionally weak player. It all looks like he is to trying to stop people getting good discussion going. I can't understand any of this from a town perspective. I'm fairly sure Xatalos and Hiro can't both be scum and out of the cases that the two have them have made so far Hiro's I can see from a town perspective Xatalos' I can't. I will have a good look through Hiro's filter to try and see what you are seeing.
|
Hey just got back from school. A lot to go through. A vote count would be great atm. Gonna read through everything. xat, hiropro, and dittert are my top 3 mafia picks so it is a matter of degrees of certainty for me. I will look things over and see what's what.
|
I think it's like this:
Xatalos (5): HiroPro, Willz, vonKlaust, Funcmode, imallinson HiroPro (3): Acrofales, KharadBanar, Xatalos Dittert (1): yomi Willz (1): Dittert
It seems like, fortunately, my best town reads (Acrofales and KharadBanar) believed now I'm not Mafia (or at least not more likely Mafia than HiroPro). However, there are only 2 hours left and if the rest are lurking/AFK, this is going to end sadly...
yomi, consider this: if HiroPro flips Mafia, you are pretty much redeemed and no longer a good lynch candidate.
Willz, I doubt you really think I'm the most likely Mafia (if you are town). You said you were after information: well, HiroPro's flip would almost quarantee Dittert's flip as well (Mafia&Mafia or town&town). Isn't that quite useful information?
vonKlaust: read my latest post (as well as Acrofales's recent posts). If you don't find good contribution in these posts, I don't know where you'll find it.
|
Lol. I think the fail in my logic is pretty clear. I was focused so much on the four lynch targets Willz/Yomi/Dittert/Xatalos that I completely forgot that it is completely possible that Yomi, Willz and Xatalos are all clear. This is consistent with the D1 situation 4 and D2 situation 2. I am not quite sure why I was tunneling on one of those three having to be Dittert's scumbuddy. Having scumbuddies outside of the other lynch targets is entirely possible and I like the HiroPro-Dittert connection imallison proposed, based on both their filters.
|
Vote Count!
Dittert (1): Yomi,
Xatalos (5): HiroPro, willz22912, vonklaust, funcmode, imallison
willz22912 (1): Dittert
HiroPro (3): Acrofales, KharadBanar, Xatalos
The Day ends in 2 hours!
|
I'm not really sure who the third would be though, Acrofales, considering HiroPro&Dittert. I guess you remember gumshoe from GOT? It's not impossible it's funcmode. It could also be imallinson... I'm going to read imallinson's filter while I still can (funcmode doesn't really have a filter worth mentioning).
|
Read this post from imallinson:
On April 16 2012 03:33 imallinson wrote: @yomi
I don't think two people not attacking each other means they are both scum. Hiro defending Dittert is interesting, but you have to remember it was at a time when everyone but you had Dittert pegged as newb town so I'm not as confidident that it is suspicious behaviour. As for Dittert jumping on you when you linked the two of them I don't think both those things are linked. He came with good arguments as to why you seemed scummy and it doesn't strike me as him defending Hiro. Again this was early on in Day 1 and people were throwing accusations around a lot.
To me, this looks like softly defending both Dittert and HiroPro. I didn't find anything similarly suspicious earlier in his filter, so this might be just a coincidence... However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Mafia team was HiroPro&Dittert&imallinson. They have been very soft and vague with each other, not willing to vote for each other and stepping in to protect each other when needed (especially HiroPro&Dittert, imallinson to a lesser extent).
|
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 01:53 Acrofales wrote:Okay. I don't want to wait any longer. I have been waiting all day to see what happened. I have the sneaking suspicion that mafia is just perfectly happy to leave the lynch on Xatalos: the inactivity is quite telling, as I don't think the cases on Xata are good enough for a mafia to just roll over and buss their buddy. Now I am not sure here, mafia could just have gone into hiding. However, I have not sat still. When I said I'd take a stab at connection play, I meant it. Rather than just the cases, I started with analysing voting behaviour. Now this is going to be a very long and technical post, and as with any connection play it makes some assumptions about what I think mafia would and wouldn't do. First a very quick summary of D1 votes: + Show Spoiler [voting behaviour D1] + KB bad pressures HiroPro Xatalos makes a case on ArcticFox imallison hops on ArcticFox Yomi votes Dittert without a proper case, but suspicions HiroPro makes a case against Xatalos BroodKing suspects Dittert imallison makes a throwaway vote on trumpetarm KB: another obvious pressure vote on Yomi
VOTECOUNT @ April 13 6:52 ArcticFox (1): Xatalos Dittert (2): Yomi, BroodKing trumpetarm (1): imallison Yomi (1): KB Xatalos (1): HiroPro
No vote: Acro, ArcticFox, Dittert, trumpetarm, willz, vonKlaust ---- Xatalos makes a new case: vonKlaust HiroPro follows vonKlaust counters HiroPro and immediately unvotes when HiroPro defends HiroPro kisses and makes up (unvote) Dittert makes a case against Willz, Yomi and ArcticFox. Vote Yomi BroodKing unvotes Dittert based on it ArcticFox makes a case on Yomi (I cannot call it following KB) Acrofales makes a case on willz KB follows vonKlaust follows Dittert follows (granted, he had a case already and was voting yomi only because he didn't think willz woud get town support) Xatalos follows (stronger than his own cases)
VOTECOUNT @ April 14 00:40 Willz (5): Acro, KB, vonKlaust, Dittert, Xatalos Dittert (1): yomi trumpetarm (1): imallison yomi (1): ArcticFox
No vote: trumpetarn, BroodKing, HiroPro, willz --- BroodKing follows willz (small addition to case) Willz makes a case against BroodKing Xatalos makes a case on Yomi KB votes for lurker HiroPro Willz goes emo and votes for himself Willz decides to save himself, because ArcticFox talks him into it. KB votes for yomi
VOTECOUNT @ April 14 05:35 Willz (4): Acro, vonKlaust, Dittert, BroodKing Ditter (1): yomi trumpetarm (1): imallison yomi (4): ArcticFox, willz, Xatalos, KB
No vote: trumpetarm, HiroPro --- Yomi wants to save himself: votes willz vonKlaust flipflops: votes Yomi BroodKing votes Yomi and town blows up. Yomi votes BroodKing (chance to save himself?) KB searching for consensus (understandable): votes BroodKing Xatalos hops on the bandwagon vonKlaust hops on the bandwagon imallison comes up with a plausible explanation to hop on the bandwagon ArcticFox hops on the bandwagon HiroPro hops on the bandwagon
FINAL VOTE D1 BroodKing (7): yomi, KB, Xatalos, vonKlaust, imallsion, ArcticFox, HiroPro yomi (2): willz, BroodKing willz (2): Acro, Dittert
No vote: trumpetarm
and D2 votes so far: + Show Spoiler [D2 voting behaviour] + Acro votes Dittert based on nightly reads Yomi sheeps Imallison sheeps Dittert /suicides KB bandwagons Xatalos makes a case on Yomi (again) HiroPro makes a case on Xatalos Xatalos bandwagons Dittert for really weak reasons KB bandwagons Dittert, with a good analysis post Willz votes Xatalos Yomi makes a case against Xatalos, again, but KEEPS his vote on Dittert KB sheeps Xatalos (although he's building on his earlier case)
VOTECOUNT @ April 16 05:51 Dittert (5): Acro, Yomi, imallison, Dittert, Xata Xata (3): HiroPro, willz, KB
No vote: Funcmode, vonKlaust ---
vonKlaust bandwagons Xatalos funcmode bandwagons Xatalos Dittert unsuicides and continues his case on willz Acro unvotes Dittert and bandwagons Xata imallison posts a long case and bandwagons Xata
VOTECOUNT @ April 17 00:45 Dittert (2): Yomi, imallison, Xata Xatalos (7): HiroPro, willz, KB, vonKlaust, funcmode, imallison Willz (1): Dittert
And now the assumptions: 1. I assume that mafia is particularly willing to buss their mates: if there is a plausible way out, they will take it. 2. I assume that mafia does not care who of two townies gets lynched and won't voteswitch unless a bandwagon calls for it. + Show Spoiler [speculation] +I realize the second may not be plausible to some of you, but I for one, as scum, am happy with any town lynch. If it's someone dangerous I consider it a nice bonus, but I'll take what I can get. I am extrapolating that most scum play that way. I tried to find something interesting in the pre-Yomi/Willz votes, but there is nothing that stands out to me. However, both the Yomi/Willz-votes and the Brood bandwagon allow me to draw a few conclusions. First I would like to say that Dittert, Willz', Trumpetarn and my own absense at the final vote could be seen as suspicious. I personally believe there are valid reasons for all these absenses and don't think I can read anything into them. + Show Spoiler [Brood bandwagon conclusions] + imallison and HiroPro waited until the very end before switching. They also felt the need to write a lengthy justification while the vote was already sealed. I find this quite interesting behaviour. It may not be suspicious, but file this away for later.
Note that neither was PARTICIPATING in the willz/yomi-controversy.
If willz and yomi are both innocent and either imallison or hiro are scum, they could have been waiting for a bandwagon to get going and jump on. Exactly as it happened. This behaviour is still plausible, but not as likely if one of Yomi/Willz is scum. In this case I would at the very least expect some soft defense while waiting it out. We will get to filters later.
+ Show Spoiler [Willz/Yomi split conclusions] + There are four possible cases and I will go through them one by one:
Willz and Yomi both scum The D1 happenings do not make a lot of sense to me in this case. My case on Willz came fairly early and there was plenty of time to make alternative cases. I find it extremely unlikely that scum would come up with an alternative case on another scum member, so if Yomi and Willz are both scum, then Xatalos (initial refocus on Yomi) is almost certainly town. Moreover, I see no reason for scum to voteswitch between the two, so if both are town, then KB and vonKlaust. Combining the reluctance to buss a scumbuddy and the lack of motivation to switch, that leaves the people who jumped on Yomi but not Willz (maybe scramble for town credit when it was clear that the lynch was between two scum): ArcticFox is the only one to do this. That leaves imallison, HiroPro and trumpetarn who lurked as a possible third scum. If this is the case, scum played D1 terribly (or very risky): they were waiting till the last minute to bandwagon someone else. If this is the case then the first people to hop on Brood are extremely suspect. However, I find it very implausible that this scenario happened. I will disregard it in future analysis.
Willz scum and Yomi town Now Xatalos' case makes a LOT of sense. He is protecting his scumbuddy Willz from a lynch by focusing suspicion elsewhere. It is improbable that Acro would make the case on Willz (and same for Dittert). Due to assumption 1, it is unlikely that people voting for Willz are scum (with the exception of Xatalos, who could plausibly be said to vote to reduce suspicion and then invent a countercase). KB and vonKlaust are probably town.
Willz town and Yomi scum Now Xatalos' case makes no sense at all: why buss a buddy with a likely candidate primed and ready? Same for KB and vonKlaust. It also means that Yomi's scumbuddies are hiding in the people who didn't vote for Yomi: Two of: Acro, Dittert, HiroPro, imallison, trumpetarm are scum. If you want to speculate about me being scum, do so yourself. I'm not wasting time on that. It leaves two of Dittert, HiroPro, imallison and trumpetarm.
Willz and Yomi both town If both Willz and yomi are town, I see no reason for vote switches by scum as they frankly don't give a fuck. Xatalos, KB and vonKlaust are probably town.
We see that this behavioural analysis alone makes it very likely that vonKlaust and KB are probably town (and imho their filter is another indication. More so for vonKlaust than KB). We will keep the three possible cases in mind as we analyse D2 behaviour. So far the only significant thing that has happened is the Dittert/Xatalos case. So here goes: + Show Spoiler [D2 Dittert/Xatalos cases] + Once again, four possibilitites, but now they have repercussions by taking D1 votes into account! Lets make the lists:
Dittert and Xatalos both scum Xatalos' behaviour makes no sense. He is under suspicion and bandwagons his mafia buddy instead of just voting for Yomi based on his entire night of shitting up the thread with him. Only possible reason is if Yomi is the third scum and the scum is really confusing the shit up. This seems unlikely, because yomi's behaviour is inconsistent with being scumbuddy with Xata and Dittert. Why vote dittert in the first place? Seems extremely unlikely.
Dittert scum and Xatalos town In this case, it is unlikely that Yomi is scum: despite the night spat he is sticking with the Dittert vote and only FoS'd Xatalos. Very weak case, Yomi can still switch at any point and while the bandwagon is going the right way there is no need to switch.
If Xatalos is town, that rules out situation 2 of D1, leaving: A. Willz town and Yomi scum One of HiroPro, imallison and funcnode is the missing scum.
B. Willz and Yomi both town Two of HiroPro, imallison, funcnode are scum.
Dittert town and Xatalos scum People making the case on Xatalos are unlikely to be scum. Specifically HiroPro. Why make the case that refocuses on your scumbuddy when you can ride an easy mislynch? I also find it hard to think of a reason for anybody to switch, which leaves too few scums. This situation seems unlikely to me. For the sake of completeness, it discards situations 3 and 4 of D1, leaving: Willz town and Yomi scum In this case one of: imallison and funcnode is the missing scum. Both have switched to Xatalos, though, which seems like a strange buss.
Dittert and Xatalos both town If we plug this information into the D1 results we get two possible D1 scenarios: A. Willz town and Yomi scum Two of HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are scum.
B. Willz and Yomi both town And by elimination: HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are scum.
Even if we ignore all filters, we can draw some interesting conclusions. Specifically that HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are flying suspiciously under the radar. There is almost certainly a scum hiding in that group and I for one want to find him.
+ Show Spoiler +[B]On April 17 2012 02:39 Acrofales wrote: Funcnode was first Trumpetarn, whose filter is pretty much a blank page. Funcnode has since posted a list in which he sheeped the general opinion on pretty much everybody. He also decided Xatalos was scum, just like everybody else. This is neither scummy nor townie, but it doesn't help us at all. I am willing to give him the day off in the hope to get a clearer read. Replacing someone who afk'd out of the vote is not useful at all.
I'd like to clear a few things up here regarding myself;
While I think my list post probably followed much of the general consensus (vonK, Acro, KB town reads, Xatalos scum) I don't think it's fair to say I sheeped the general opinion on pretty much everybody. I defended Dittert and voted Xatalos while the vote was 5:4 respectively, and since then more people have decided Dittert is probably a townie after all.
I also placed Yomi further down my list of scum reads than the majority of others. For example your own list of scum at the end of N1 (in your "nightly reads" went as follows: 1. Willz 2. Dittert 3. Yomi.
Finally, I listed imallinson as my #3 scum read when very few people (if any at the time) were suspecting him anywhere near as much as Dittert, Xatalos, Yomi and HiroPro. I'm definitely going to invest some time investigating imallinson, as personally I think he's one of the more suspicious players that seems to have slipped under many people's radars.
As I said, I don't think it's fair to say given these points that I simply "sheeped the general opinion." Also, coming in to a thirty-something page thread with no previous experience of mafia, and taking over from someone who had built practically nothing of a foundation for me to build on shouldn't make me suspect for supposedly lurking and not much else. Just because I haven't had the same amount of time as people like yourself, KB and vonK to practically clear your own names (for now at least) shouldn't make me any more suspicious than any of you are.
I hope this doesn't come across as a sort of knee-jerk reaction to even the slightest suspicion of me, rather I'm simply trying to give my own perspective. Your analysis while solid seems to lump me in with people I think we have bigger reasons to be suspicious of. I appreciate though that your willing to "give me a day off" so you can get a clearer read on me, I just hope everyone else is willing to give me a similar sort of opportunity - and after reading your post, with the weight you carry in this thread, I feel like people will suspect me more than they should, at least at this point in time.
Just recently there's been a large swing in voting for HiroPro. I can see that lynching him would certainly give us some answers, but I'm just not convinced personally if he's the scummiest of reads right now, I think there's a lot of WIFOM involved in his implications. I'll read over his filter and the last few pages to see if it's worth a last minute vote switch.
|
imallinson continues defending both HiroPro and Dittert:
On April 17 2012 03:23 imallinson wrote: I'm not so sure Hiro is scum. I think either Dittert or Xatalos are scum and whether Hiro is scum or not depends a lot on Dittert's alignment. I think what is interesting is that Hiro went from thinking Xatalos is reasonably town to picking him out as scum at the beginning of day 2. I haven't quite figured out his motivations for this yet and there is definitely a town explanation for this as well as a scum one.
Dittert is Scum If Dittert is scum it makes a lot of sense that Hiro is scum as well. Hiro makes a case for someone who is weak when his team mate is looking to get lynched. I think this is probably the case both ways (If Hiro ends up getting lynched and flips scum Dittert is probably scum too).
Dittert is Town However, if Dittert is town then it makes no sense for Hiro to be scum, he completely shuns the current consensus that Dittert is scum and goes for someone else to get lynched when it makes no difference to him. Therefore if Dittert is town I'm fairly sure Hiro is town. Consequently this makes me think Xatalos is scum.
So while your Hiro case has merit Acrofales, I still think Xatalos is the scummier of him and Dittert leaving Hiro as town.
This gets me very interested in the possibility of HiroPro&Dittert&imallinson... I'll have to look how HiroPro and Dittert have talked about imallinson next!
I'm actually getting pretty excited already. It's not too bad even if I die now, since the whole Mafia team has been potentially revealed. If I die and flip town, please focus your attention on these three players immediately. Don't forget to use DT/Vigi/Jailer. And heal Acrofales, I think.
|
Further evidence supporting HiroPro&Dittert&imallinson:
On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote: 3. imallinson - He seems normal? I don't really have a strong inclination for anyone in this third town spot. He asks for KB's read on Hiro, which seems helpful to the town.
Dittert randomly expresses his confidence in imallinson being town. This would fit my theory very well, I think.
|
Hahaha, this is too brilliant... Everything fits so perfectly. The sadness from my lynch has already washed away
|
Looks like we aren't going through on dittert today. Sort of odd but ok. So I am weighing xat vs hiropro. Xat I still think really posts in a mafia way. I still sort of hate this cost/benefit analysis thing he does where he pleads to people's self-interest to vote a certain way. It is just reflective of a general viewpoint towards lynching that the point of it is to survive or to kill which I think is a bit different from how a townie views it. This is a very "emotional" sort of read so it may just be coming from my own admitted total bias against xat. Right when he starts to appeal to my interests to move towards hiro (aka saving him) I cringed and just wanted to vote him even harder.
ON THE OTHER HAND!: Who are his teammates? Maybe I am just biased towards myself and egocentric etc whatever but I feel like the xat case originates from me. And was easy to shut down initially. I start going at the guy at a time when I myself don't have a lot of credit and most people are still reading xat as pretty town at this point. I think my arguments against him could have been shouted down pretty easily but they weren't. People kind of sat there on the sidelines and looked at it and let the discussion happen. I just think two mafia players could have shut me down right then and there and no one would be looking at xat today.
Hiropro on the other hand has a very very obvious teammate. I went through his filter way back and show him again and again defending ditt. I don't have nearly the patience to substantiate this but my feeling is this is one of the most consistent alignments of any one player towards another so far in the game. I don't know how much dittert reciprocates back though.
So I'm still on the fence here. Xat still seems mafia. However, this one time, his cost/benefit analysis of the lynches is I believe correct. There IS more upside to a hiro mafia flip as it gives us a go-ahead play on a lynch tomorrow or even a vigi shot tonight which would put us in a very strong winning position with all the time in the world to route out the remaining mafia player. If he flips town well he wasn't contributing too much anyway.
Are we so far behind that we have to go for the double play or lose? 3-7 it is right now? That's not great, they only need one or at most two townies to come with them for a lynch on whomever they choose.
Soooooo. Not sure.
|
I'm sorry I haven't been active tonight, I have had a hard time focusing because of my annoyence with school byrocracy + I needed to look over my reading matterial. Anyway I have read through the posts and if we would assume that Dittert and Hiro are scumbuddies, then I would rather be for lynching Dittert than HiroPro.
First of all, I have a stronger scum-read on Dittert. You can read my reasoning in this post: + Show Spoiler +On April 16 2012 06:01 vonKlaust wrote:Alright so here's my try at an general analysis: Dittert:I have up until now thought that he was a newbie townie, and I’ve been standing by that read until his last posts. The way he got all overly defensive and rude really doesn’t look good to me. Especially this part bothers me: Show nested quote + Here's my read: you're all a bunch of idiots. Seriously.
All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? I'll bet you FEEL like you're constantly producing SCV's too, and I bet you're in the bronze league. For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit").
For one thing, it was not idiotic to vote for Brood. What he did was pretty outrageous, and it’s not strange that we chose to change out vote to him. I would have thought it pretty scummy if Dittert hadn’t at least acknowledged the fact that Brood was very likely to be mafia after he made that post which made us all switch to him. Also, I don’t remember anything about anyone talking about what they feel is right. The one thing I can recall was me saying that I felt that Willz defence was reasonable, but that I wasn’t gonna act on my feeling since Willz could just as well be a mafia with good rhetoric. The way he tries to collect town-points by claiming that he was sure Brood was town makes my scum-radar tick. If he would have said this before we lynched Brood it would have made me highly suspicious, and it really doesn’t make it better by saying it in retrospect. I think we did the right thing with Brood. It’s damn easy to say that it was stupid after the fact that he flipped town. I mean seriously, this was all he ever wrote about Brood(as far as I’ve found in his filter anyway): Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote:2. Brood - He's reasonably active, but it's more like a scattershot than a laser. He's asking questions of everyone with seemingly no real agenda. Even though I think Brood is town, I also think he says some really stupid shit. For example: On April 13 2012 05:09 BroodKingEXE wrote: Townies have no need to duck responsibility, their innocence will prevent them from being lynched. Mafia on the other hand will use their newbie status to duck responsibility if they make a bad read Really? Your innocence will save you? Tell that to the victims of the Spanish Inquisition or the Salem Witch trials. This is NOT enough to call us stupid for lynching Brood. If he is serious about this comment on Brood being stronger than Broods very scummy comment on lynching Willz, then I don’t know what to say to him. Him martyring and acting like an idiot saying stuff like doesn’t help at all. Verdict: Scum. Yomi:
I don’t know man. Most of the time he has been defending himself, and this is not very weird since he has been tunnelled pretty hard most of the game. Maybe if Xatalos could actually give him a chance to post something productive, he would be able to contribute. As far as I can tell he hasn’t contributed all that much to the thread. There is his case on Dittert, but I think that it’s pretty weak. After that Xatalos began tunnelling him to no end. I’m actually starting to lean more towards Yomi being innocent. To me it definitely could be that he has just been to pressured to focus on making reads. On the other hand, it should be clear that it would be better as town to focus on making reads than defending yourself I guess. I have a hard time taking a concrete stance on this guy. It seems he has started to try to contribute more lately too. I’ll keep my eyes on him. Verdict: 50/50 Acrofales:This guy has without a doubt been the biggest contributor to the thread. I have a hard time seeing him being mafia. He has made a couple of really good cases and has been calling people out when he thinks they have been acting badly. To put it shortly: He has been making the best cases so far, and has been the guy to most successfully keep the thread on track. Verdict: Town. Xatalos:In my opinion the most interesting player in the thread. The thing that is bothering me immensely is that I and others for a long time have been trying to make him calm down with his posting. He has not been calming down. This is to me deeply disturbing, and I’m starting to lean towards him being a sneaky, sneaky crook. I’m not the first one to point this out but his posts have been ALL OVER THE PLACE!!! He has done a top notch job in clogging up the thread with useless discussion and tunnelling. On top of that he seems unable to notice his own confirmation bias which is fucking up his cases. Even though he have been accusing pretty much everyone, he always been acting as he is 100% confident in his reads. I called him out on this earlier and he wrote: Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 20:26 Xatalos wrote: I haven't said I have 100% confidence in my cases. Indeed I have said things like "ArcticFox is 70-80%" Mafia or "yomi is 90% Mafia". That might seem like over-confidence or exaggeration, but I don't mean the percentages as a scale from zero to 100%: if I say someone is 50% Mafia, I have a neutral read on him, and 50-100% Mafia means likely Mafia. So with yomi being 90% Mafia I mean that from a scale of 1 to 5, his Mafia rating would be 4. And I’m perfectly aware of this, but this does not really answer me. The problem is that he is overconfident in his reads, and suffers from severe confirmation bias. Since Xatalos have not yet started to act on my and others advice to start to take it a bit easy on the accusations and stop to tunnel people I’m starting to lean towards scummyness. His play just doesn’t make sense to me. Verdict: Scum.Willz:My opinion on him hasn’t really changed. He is still possible scum in my eyes. I’ll watch him closely D2 to see if he shapes his posting up. For right now I’m still suspicious. Still, he seems like a guy who could be useful. I have liked the way he has been calling people out. It’s just the hypocrisy I’m bothered with. Verdict: Scummy.KharadBanar:Kharad has kind of been hovering under my radar since the beginning of the game, and I haven’t really had an opinion on him. However, I like KharadBanar's Comprehensive Scum Probability List™ and I agree with a lot of what he’s saying there. Checking his filter, I think it looks good. I can’t find anything I think is particularly weird. Verdict: TownImallinson:
Reading through his filter he hasn’t really been contributing that much. There is this one: + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2012 15:26 imallinson wrote:Well now the BroodKing thing has settled into my head a bit more I will post my thoughts on the current situation. Honestly this lynch sucks if we had lynched either Willz or yomi we would have got info from it, lynching Brood and him turning town. I'm not entirely sure about Willz's idea about all the scum voting for Brood because absolutely everyone who was here in the hour before voting pretty much instantly switched to Brood. Also it's perfectly possible a scum member wasn't here near the end or was lurking super hard and didn't feel the need to come out of the shadows because the Brood lynch was obviously going through. Now my thoughts on some of our other townsmembers. Dittert: After his last post I'm really not convinced about the dumb town thing any more. Someone who isn't confident about their ability doesn't chastise people and call them idiots. Show nested quote +All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? I will admit there have been some fairly weak arguments (yomi, Xatalos and myself have all been guilty of this although Dittert is as well) however it's day 1 in a newbie game we probably aren't going to be seeing any Holmes-esque deductions yet. Show nested quote +For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit"). I think ArcticFox said it best here "That was the dumbest thing I think I've ever seen." He's right it was a dumb slip by Brood whether he is town or scum. Looking back at it it's easy to say it was a stupid thing to go for. Show nested quote +What irks me is that before I left, we had a pretty good case going against willz and a general ##FoS pointed at yomi. Once willz started posting more, everyone seemed to think that he must be town (why does posting more mean you're town, especially when posts with any kind of substance whatsoever came after Acro and myself built a strong case against him). It's not just because he started posting more. He actually put up some sort of defence (in between the moping), then yomi started looking more suspicious so the vote started to move to him, finally Brood posted his dumb slip and the vote moved to him. This all makes sense from a town perspective, everyone voted for who they thought was most suspicious at the time. Show nested quote +Okay, so if you're convinced willz is town, why not vote for yomi? Yomi didn't even really have a defense, and I don't understand why everyone switched off of him. People did vote for yomi and I don't think anyone has switched off of him. He is certainly high on my list of suspicious people (more on that later). Show nested quote +Does post X make sense if so and so is town? What about if they're mafia? Do I see a pattern of posting between people? Remember that the mafia are coordinating with each other. Can you pick out anything that looks like coordination between 3 people? If you think so and so is mafia, with whom are they working? Can you construct a consistent and compelling story about what might be happening in the thread? Are you willing to assume that most people are just chattering townies (which is statistically true)? A lot of this has been said before in the cases against Willz and yomi. This reeks of trying to be helpful while not actually contributing. Show nested quote +And for everyone who consistently says that my logic is dumb, my posts are bad, and my reads are wrong, my only read on brood was that he was a townie doing dumb stuff. Looks like I'm 1 for 1, or 2 for 2 if you count the townie part and the dumb stuff (like making a "scumslip" at the last minute) as 2 separate things. This read of yours is both well before he slipped up and after he flipped town. You didn't have much reason to suspect him in the former and have hindsight in the later. You seem to be using the fact you weren't here when the vote flipped to Brood to show you as innocent which I'm not buying. It's easy to say a vote was stupid after it has happened if you had responded as such while it was happening I might take your accusations a bit more seriously. That whole post seems scummy to me ##FoS: Dittertyomi: I'm really not sure about you at the moment. There have been decent arguments against you you never properly responded to but your posting is so erratic and nonsensical that I think you might just be a really bad town player. I would think scum would be more careful and considered in their posting. That being said you are playing so badly currently I'm thinking you wouldn't be a terrible lynch / vig shot. I would really like to get some calmer some reasoned stuff from you. Xatalos: The one good point, although not conveyed well, that yomi made is about you Xatalos. You have actually been suspicious of, to various degrees, or have voted against everyone except yourself and trumpetarn who barely counts because he stopped posting midway through day 1. I can't see a reason why any town would be so suspicious of everyone around him. I understand being wary and throwing a few accusations around but you have taken it to an extreme. I'm not sure whether you are town or scum but I really would like to know why you are so suspicious of everybody. Willz: Everyone seemed to let you off the hook somewhat after yomi became suspect #1 and I will admit you were definitely helpful in what you thought were your death throes posting your reads on others but the mopyness and self voting really helps only the scum. I don't know whether you are town or scum at the moment but you need to cut that shit out. I'll just post short thoughts on everyone else as I don't have mountains to say about them. vonKlaus: You strike me as fairly town. You have defended your self well and haven't been afraid to makes cases. ArcticFox: Again you seem town for the same reasons as vonKlaus. Acrofales: You are probably my strongest town read. You made an excellent well reasoned case against Willz. KharadBanar: Your posting can be a bit sporadic but is helpful when it exists. I hope to see you really shine now we are past day 1. HiroPro: I don't know what to say about you, you barely post. You also seem to flop about a fair bit with your voting mainly following other people. But that’s pretty much it as far as I can tell. Like Kharad Imallinson have been one I’ve not payed a lot of attention on. I’m unsure. It doesn’t seem he have contributed that much, but I can’t really find anything really bad either. Verdict: Not a town read, but not a scum read either. I’d say this is 50/50. I have to take a closer look at this guy. HiroPro:This guy have been confusing to me from the start. Right now I’m leaning town since he have been stepping up his posting, and he actually starts to seem pretty reasonable. His filter is a bit thin and I would like him to get posting a little more. He was reasonable in our discussion about Xatalos’ case on me, and I like his recent case on Xatalos. Verdict: I’m leaning town on him. 70% town. Conclusion:I’ll be voting for Xatalos for now. I want to put an end to his posting madness, and this vote is gonna stay right here until that happens. If Xatalos starts making more constructive posts, this vote may very well be put on Dittert instead. ##Vote Xatalos
If you look at Dittert's filter, he have been on Willz for about the entire game, and he have also been very suspicious about Yomi. If Dittert flips red, it would be a strong indicator that Willz and Yomi would be green. I think you might have talked about this in your recent vote-analysis Acrofales. I wouldn't call them 100% town because of it, but it would be enough for me to feel safe concentrating on the other suspects. For me, that would be Hiro, Xatalos and Funcomde. I would probably say that if Dittert flip red, the most likely scumbuddies would be Hiro and Funcmode, but I'm not ready to completely let go of Xatalos yet. It wouldn't really make sense for Imallinson to come up with this kind of connection if he actually was scum together with Dittert. At least not while so few votes are on Dittert. It could be an idea if Dittert was about to get lynched, and Hiro is town. It would make him look less suspicious and put some blame on Hiro. But again, with this few votes on Dittert, that is pretty unlikely.
##Unvote ##Vote: Dittert
|
Oh, quite alot have happened since I started posting. I'll take a look.
|
|
|
|