In your theory, you're assuming that scum have the ability to change alignment of flips. Why?
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
In your theory, you're assuming that scum have the ability to change alignment of flips. Why? | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I 99% believe that Kush was town. Either he got framed, or you're pulling a gambit. Also, I don't believe that scum have an ability to give up KP AFTER a flip to change the flip. MAYBE they have an ability to change the NEXT flip, but afaik there's no precedent for scum having a power they can use in the day, THEN give up KP the next night. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 13 2012 16:01 VisceraEyes wrote: Kei think. In your theory, you're assuming that scum have the ability to change alignment of flips. Why? Because you brought it up. Never have I seen a role like that, outside of Janitor. The fact that you were so obsessed with it leads me to believe that you KNEW that that role existed. No townie would ever see Kush flip town after a red check and assume that scum had an ability to change the flip. The logical assumption is that he was framed, but you spent a ton of time arguing otherwise. | ||
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Mafia Coroner was the report. Dude flips something other than the report. Does that not seem like a logical thought progression to you? What would you think? Framed or flip shenannies right? I only brought it up because there were NO kills. Tell me why scum wouldn't kill man. Tell me HOW IT'S POSSIBLE that NONE of the anti-town KP got fired off tonight. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 13 2012 16:07 VisceraEyes wrote: The name of the role was CORONER. I mean - what do you THINK that means? Obviously the roles aren't exactly what they seem in all cases, but COME ON. Mafia Coroner was the report. Dude flips something other than the report. Does that not seem like a logical thought progression to you? What would you think? Framed or flip shenannies right? I only brought it up because there were NO kills. Tell me why scum wouldn't kill man. Tell me HOW IT'S POSSIBLE that NONE of the anti-town KP got fired off tonight. Show me one game where scum have had a day power that they could use by giving up their KP for the NEXT night, and I'll shut up. I could buy that scum could give up their KP and then the next day they could use a power. I don't buy that they can use a power in the day and give up KP the next night. AFAIK there's just no precedent for that. | ||
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
DocH is known for crazy shit like this. KNOWN for it. You KNOW this, man. I can't explain the timing either - if Kush really was the Coroner, then i don't know how he would have reversed his own flip. I concede that it's far fetched. But honestly, after our Paramedics "swept the leg" so to speak, I can ALSO see mods making allowances. Just try and see this from my perspective. I AM the town PI. I HAVE fucked it up somehow (BEFORE the Mementoss check). I AM trying to understand what the hell is going on - and because I know I'm telling the truth I'm accepting things that you are not. Like - you don't know if I'm lying scum or actual PI. I know that I'm actual PI and I know that I actually received a report that Kush was Mafia Coroner. These are FACTS to me. | ||
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Do the right thing Kei. Go take a look at the link I posted not long ago - probably within 2 or 3 pages of the end of my filter. It's Kreb as a townie in a Newbie game. There's a GIGANTIC difference in his play this game and his play in that game. Look at the way he reasons things out in the thread as town. Tell me that guy would just put blinders on and come at me as a townie. Whether I was framed or the flip was reversed, scum's plan was always going to be to discredit me and try and get me lynched. Independent of my read of Kreb or the fact that he's been pushing me all game, that's my analysis of the situation. There's no reason to fuck with my check unless scum wanted to bank on it somehow. | ||
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
At the same time, what about my perspective? I have no way of knowing if 1) kush could change his flip (I already stated many times that I don't believe kush was scum. I feel like I know marv pretty damn well, all things considered. I know how he thinks as scum, and I know he busses the fuck out of teammates who are a liability to him. Hell, even *YOU* should know that). 2) Kush was framed, or 3) You are lying. So, I've ruled out #1, which was your idea anyways. #2 feels like it SHOULD default be the right answer. I mean, #1 never even crossed my mind as a possibility. But there are just too many little things that point to #3. It all just...fits. And, even though I've convinced myself, I don't think there's a damn thing I can do about it. I will concede that there's a pretty good chance that I'm wrong and just overly paranoid. But damn if I can believe that myself. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 13 2012 16:34 VisceraEyes wrote: I don't know. My brain is aching. Do the right thing Kei. Go take a look at the link I posted not long ago - probably within 2 or 3 pages of the end of my filter. It's Kreb as a townie in a Newbie game. There's a GIGANTIC difference in his play this game and his play in that game. Look at the way he reasons things out in the thread as town. Tell me that guy would just put blinders on and come at me as a townie. Whether I was framed or the flip was reversed, scum's plan was always going to be to discredit me and try and get me lynched. Independent of my read of Kreb or the fact that he's been pushing me all game, that's my analysis of the situation. There's no reason to fuck with my check unless scum wanted to bank on it somehow. So, if you believe that, why are you pleading with me who's been calling you a liar for the last 4-5 hours? Wouldn't I be part of that "trying to discredit you" crowd? | ||
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
BC the Third, Kreb the Tunnel Rat and ZBos the Flamethrower are part of that crowd. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I'll reread Kreb tomorrow. I remember the link you pasted. | ||
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Main topic of discussion in the scum QT that game: HOW TO FAKE CLAIM -.- I'm going to bed, this game is stupid. | ||
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
I'm never gonna play the same way as scum ever again. See that I'm town by the fact that I am actually giving a shit, mr. Coach. Let me know if you wake up feeling like you'd talk to me. I'd really love to chat with you again. I can be mean at times but boy do I have a big heart. Kei, regarding that theory, it's possible but we shouldn't base ourselves on it. VE has indeed been acting hella scummy, but man he sure is insistent. I'd rather kill someone else today. Since there are two people willing to lynch kreb, with some valid arguments by sloosh, I will go over kreb's filter more carefully. If I still get a town feel on kreb, I'll likely end up voting on DP or mattchew. | ||
Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
No rb has claimed, so no nk's are missing from that point. This also means that scum had to forgo a roleblock (or chose not to use it.. ?) So even if they shot BC again, which I doubt, there are still one or more kps missing. I highly doubt that they only have 1kp at this stage of the game. So there's no way the missing shots can be accounted for any reason, am I right? This must mean that this is in fact some weird mechanic. I also can't wrap my brain around the fact that BC waited until I was going after VE full force to give us his "scumslip" argument (which actually does make sense, though). Why didn't he say it earlier? Feels weird. VE's "lynch me" behavior certainly feels weird as well. It's not like someone like him can't handle pressure. I don't know what to make of all this... He sure seemed like he wanted people to lynch him there for a while, so I'm also tempted to think that it was on purpose. Whatever the situation, let's lynch someone else, be it Mattchew, DP or kreb (yes I'm including kreb's name now because my town read came from my general reading and a quick skim of his filter. I still haven't read it carefully enough.,, his lack of voice today also increased my suspicions.) | ||
Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
First part: There is no point of calling someone's defense incredibly weak if you think they are town - it only serves to cast doubt on said player's alignment. If you truly suspect someone as scum you would put less trust in what they say because of scum agenda influencing their posts. I can certainly see the points. It puts pressure on them should it be scum, it updates the other town players on my thoughts. It might give other town players a reason to chip in themselves if they've seen something similar themselves somewhere else. And of course you read and try to process what even your strongest scum reads have to say. Thats how people drop out of peoples scum read list. If you just decide on the stance that someone is scum and then read all he has to say from the purpose of "he is lying" that terrible scumhunting. You should know that. Second part: I don't know which one but it's from Ace's mafia strategy guide. Scum plant ideas into town so they present it as their own, making it difficult to trace back the origin. Doesn't matter if you claim your stance on him was clear from the start. If you really thought him scum through and through you don't concede that the claims seem valid. Scum can't make valid claims. And thats your whole case on me. "Kreb is actually reading and processing what VE has to say, if he truly believed VE was scum he should not listen to VE at all and just go all out". You're blaming me for considering VE might be town. That i express that theres part of his play which seems town. Thats like the worse reasoning ever. And even if you truly believe one should never listen and never try to process your top scum reads posts from a town perspective (god I hope you dont truly believe that), then I humbly disagree. And I am not going to stop that. As for a deeper explanation of said post. I think I've made it quite clear I've been suspicious of VE all game. I also think I've made it clear to question that tunneling (because, you know, thats what proper town players should). And I also questioned the fact that there were 4 revealed blues and 3 more claims, which seem like an awful lot of blues. That post was made in that period. Hell I had the wierdest explanations going on in my head how either of these three could be scum. I was totally on to the fact that there could be a "mafia role power inspector" somewhere making mafia know what Blue roles there are, making it possible for BC to claim Lucky citizen/veteran and VE to claim PI without counterclaims from the real PI/LC. But in the end, every single idea just came down to this: Actually, I keep having this voice in the back of my head telling me I shouldnt kinda tunnel VE like Im doing. That its clouding my judgement for the other players. But I cant really see anything on anyone else being equally or more scummy. And I have tried to find reasons as to how he could truly be his PI claim. But no, fuck that. Every time I or someone else tries to explain it in any other way it just turn into some really wierd assumptions that theres so far hidden roles doing this and that. No, mafia trading KP to flip Kush as town isnt likely No, a framer which both frames role and alignment isnt likely. The most probable explanation is right there in front of us, and that is that VE is scum. And thats even disregarding his previous scummyness he has shown a large part of this game. As for his claim, him being ballsy mafia is much more probable than the other explanations. I was planning on waiting and see what comes up on the Matt/DP/ZB/whoever else people might wanna vote for - front, but fuck that. ##Vote VisceraEyes That the easiest damn solution has always been right in front of me. And this post is when I went from "I wonder in what ways VE could not be scum" into "fuck this, VE is too damn fucking scummy, the other explanations doesnt make sense". | ||
Kreb
4834 Posts
Reference: + Show Spoiler + On October 09 2012 08:23 Kreb wrote: Ok, time to post something before the night kills as I promised. Here are the reason I will most likely be voting VE next day if I'm alive. Also note that a lot of these things have already been posted, but with all the different tells which have been posted throughout the thread its probably a good idea to bunch them together somewhere. 1) The Node wagon. This post: + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2012 10:54 VisceraEyes wrote: Well, I went over austin's filter and was coming back to tell you guys that I didn't want to lynch him based upon it, and then I saw two walls of his. We're not lynching austin today. I'm liking a Node lynch. I do NOT think we have the votes to make it happen. I still like a Shady lynch, but more and more it's feeling like an angry townie ragequitting the game more than a scummy manipulation tactic. However his explanation for his trolling was totally bullshit and I can get behind his lynch more than kj/austin. is the most scummy thing about it. 1a) He only says he read through austins filters, but he very nicely avoids posting what he found in it. Instead he refers to "the two walls of his" as if that somehow makes everything 100% clear. He still, as of today, has not explained why he changed. 1b) His extremely weak (on unexisting) reason to switch to Node. Someone (who people seem to regard a very strong player) should not change that easily to such a weak case it was. 2) Refusing to answer to said cases and other quetions I just know what I asked him stuff myself, like this: + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2012 19:54 Kreb wrote: @VE Three lines of text, three questions: 1) What gave you the scum-read on annul? You were targetting him previously but to my knowledge your last stance on him was this: Has this changed? If so, why? 2) Why do you like austin? 3) Why do you dislike Mattchew? And he also refused to comment at all on my other accusations. To my knowledge he still hasnt said a word on the Node wagon yet. 3) The way he targetted annul 3a) His targetting D1 actually seemed to have a bit of reason behind it, but right after the Shady mislynch he says this: + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2012 13:25 VisceraEyes wrote: That's not the worst part. The worst part is we lynched a townie. That's just a bad, expected, forseeable part. The worst part is that we didn't fucking lynch scum annul. Once again, no explanation. Just straight up calling annul scum. It goes on for a while and the only legitimate reason I could see for his targetting of annul was the fact that annul suggested a vote switch (to ZBoson i think) very close to the deadline even though he had questioned vote switching before. While I did agree on that particular point against annul, that alone did in no way motivate the way VE attacked him. Also, it seemed like that reason only was revealed a bit after he had already started attacking annul, like he found about it later. A proper townie would have explained first and targetted after. 3b) Also he tried to paint annul as some really crafty mafia so the rest of us would be suspicious of him too, even though there wasnt as much to be suspicious of. mkfuba made a good case on that part: + Show Spoiler + On October 03 2012 23:51 mkfuba07 wrote: Alright, I'm going to be getting a bit more rest since I woke up for Code S. Current thoughts: I could definitely see VE being scum. His unfortunate scumhunting is a big piece of the puzzle, but his interaction with annul keeps nagging at me. It took me a while to figure out why I was so annoyed by these posts, but I think I've figured it out. VE first emphasizes that as scum annul can become "scary" (which I assume means that he can appear to become a good contributor, though VE never actually says how annul becomes "scary"), but leaves out the fact that he might do the same exact thing as town. It doesn't feel like VE is trying to inform the town of annul's apparent meta, as much as emphasize the scummy aspects of annul's meta and attribute it entirely to scum-annul. It would feel the same way if marv came in and said that I can be incredibly wishy-washy as scum. He's emphasized in previous games that I am the master of wishy-washiness regardless of alignment (though I've only ever been scum once, for little over a day). If he were to come into this game and try to convince everyone that I'm only wishy-washy when I'm scum, then I would be incredibly suspicious of him (In fact, I believe that's part of why he avoided talking about me at all despite my case being in the same post as the Node one). In VE's case, it looks like he tried to do a similar thing, and then when annul called him out on it he tried to minimize the effect. Why say that scum-annul can be "scary" if town-annul can also be "scary" unless you're trying to make vigis take the shot without a proper reason? It seems like a pretty scummy interaction from VE. I'd really like to hear thoughts from others, as this is the first thing I feel pretty confident about this game. Finally, I'm still waiting on input from mementoss... I know that 15 pages is a lot to go through, but I'm not going to put him aside just because one of the people who was calling him out is going to flip scum. There are other lurkers, but he's promised more contributions twice now, and we've seen nothing from it. 4) Meta reads This isnt something I can really confirm but I'll add it since it makes sence because of how many peopel have expressed them. Talismania started off by calling his meta scummy early D1. That kinda died off (probably for a good reason), but since then a lot of people have commented on how VE as town is MUCH more active, sometimes/often (?) something of a town leader and being much more contributory than how he is this game. 5) Extremely scummy (or bad if he really is town) scumhunting Already posted about this, here: + Show Spoiler + On October 03 2012 21:33 Kreb wrote: Agreed. VE also didnt reply to any questions I asked him afterwards, nor did he reply to me calling him out for a very weak vote-switch to Node (left it to marv to do the dirty work by agressively defending my accusations while also clogging up the thread with plenty of posts?). He has also, should he be town, been either terribly bad or terribly unlucky in his scumhunting. Lets look at a few people he has touched on: 1) 2 confirmed town flips. 2) Then the attack on annul - confirmed town flip. 3) After dropping annul, posting this while placing his vote on Shady. 2 confirmed town. 4) Voted Node - no flip on him yet though. 5) Going back to annul (confirmed town) after mislynch. With very little motivation (and refused to explain himself when I questioned it). 6) Calling for a medic on a confirmed (yea, he is) scum, calling vig shot on a confirmed town. He is either scum or just randomly managed to call out about every single confirmed player (except Risen) the wrong alignment. VE is my top scum read atm. 6) His post-marv-revelation behavior 6a) After having had many people saying they were suspicious of him post Marvs revelation, how did he reply? He replied with some wierd extreme confidence. Look here: + Show Spoiler + On October 04 2012 08:17 VisceraEyes wrote: Please, by all means. Bring it on. I haven't done anything wrong except be wrong. That doesn't mean I'm scum. It means I'm bad at the game. At least 75% of the players in this game knew that already. :/ Here: + Show Spoiler + On October 04 2012 09:32 VisceraEyes wrote: When you line it all up like that it makes it easy to see how laughable the case against me is. Thank you kush. Seriously, I was starting to worry until you did that. And here: + Show Spoiler + On October 04 2012 09:40 VisceraEyes wrote: On October 04 2012 09:37 kushm4sta wrote: You said you were going to read through the thread again so you could figure things out. Instead of making a case against someone you just sit in the thread wise cracking? Me? Dude, we're lynching marv today. I can assure you I'm reading. I'll post something, don't you worry. It's not about the wise-cracking. Just...trust me guy. You won't want to lynch me when it's time to actually pick someone to lynch. Im not sure why scum would really wanna do that, but its 100% not towny to do. Compare to DPs case on Keirathi for example, or the french dudes on Shiao. No matter whether you like the cases or not, both Kei and Shiao were properly there to respond to the cases like a town should. VE did something completely different. Also note how he never really commented on this afterwards either, but rather seems to be banking on it being forgotten. To me, it seems more likely he "gave up" or "lost interest" (someone already pointed that out, I think it was Coag, and VE rejected it) due to the percieved OPness/sillyness of the Paramedic role. He probably intented some kind of agressive/confident defense initally, but then just didnt care about it enough. 6b) Also note how he went trollmode with marv for a while (towny thing to do? hell no.) Its quite clear he enjoys playing with marv, which further strengthens the belief that he lost interest/gave up when Marv got caught in such a silly way. 7) Marvs motive behind his discussion with me Ok, this is a new point, but I saved maybe the best for last. Lets look again at the context of Marvs behaviour of my case. First, lets look at what I wrote: Later I also kinda halfassed bunched Kush into my group of scummy people. So what do we know now: - Node is scum (I was wrong) - Austin was twon (I was wrong) - Marv is scum (I was right) Now, lets for a moment assume both VE and Kush are town. And with that assumption in mind, lets look at what Marv had to say about my case: Later turning into: Now, specifically note how he is targetting me. Not the part of my case directed to him, but me (and my case) as a whole. Now, why would you want to do that if I only were right about Marv being scummy!!?? Why would he react like that if I was wrong about Node, Austin, VE and Kush?!!? Theres absolutely no reason to. The aggressiveness of his defense clearly tells me I was onto something more than just him. If he was the only thing I had right in my post, theres several other much better approaches he couldve used to abuse my mis-reads. He could have agreed on it, admitting it was wierd (which likely would have had me going straight after VE), knowing that there was a very high chance I'd go after a town. But he didnt. He could have defended himself alone, citing town reads on VE as reason why he followed him. He didnt. He could have not said anything at all, hoping it would turn into a austin or VE lynch. He didnt. Instead he decided to go and agressively discredit me and as such my whole case. And I just cant see why he would do that if the only thing I predicted right was Marvs scummyness. I think I must have hit something more to motivate this response. And while it could possible be Kush, I think VE is the most likely person. Or hell, maybe even both. Bonus point + Show Spoiler + This is definitely confirmation bias if I somehow would be wrong about all this, but out of all replies to the mkfuba/hapa thing, this still stood out to me: [B]On October 06 2012 21:10 VisceraEyes wrote: ##Vote: Hapa Twice in one game. Damn fine work guys. Sick crumb fuba. Really? Is that geniune happiness or irony and bitterness? That is BEFORE this whole Kush claim shenanigans. That is primarily from day1+night1. And since then, the amount of scum-reads on VE HAS INCREASED STEADILY. | ||
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