Newbie Student Mafia XXIX - Page 19
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
I’ll be gone for about an hour and then I’ll only have about fifteen minutes before I have to head back to work. I need to hear from you all (especially Prplhz and Kelsier who I know are in the thread right now) We need to consolidate down to two targets for this lynch to force scum to actually make an impactful vote | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On September 12 2018 01:14 KelsierSC wrote: Because I can see the scenario where Koshi is lynched either for role because he scum reads qatol and it makes hf/sergio look bad in the process. But then HF dies unexpectedly and now Qatol is kind of fucked. If this looks like a sheep and a massive contradiction to what i've been saying , that's because it is. ##Vote: Qatol As odd as it is to say considering you wound up voting for me, thank you. This is the post I was looking for, though I disagree with the result (as I still don't think HF's argument made any sense and I still don't think Koshi found me scummy when he died). I'm taking this as a strong statement of "fed up townie who doesn't know what to think after defending himself for 2 pages." On September 12 2018 04:20 KelsierSC wrote: Ok so we have about 19 different people who have votes on them, Rels, damdred,vivax, me,qatol, sergio ...anyone else? Just consolidate votes because right now mafia just vote on whichever rando target isnt them and this lynch is a crap shoot. HF and Koshi both had Qatol as scum, looking at the night kills koshi is a great one for qatol to make but he didnt count on hf being shot. it's a genuinely solid lynch and should be a good one. The AFK lynch is a crap shoot and any votes there are bad and make you instantly scummy, any "reason" for rels or damdred or RoL or prpl at this point is sort shitty. You can pick another person if you legitimately make a good case on them, fuck you can think rayn is right and vote me I wont give a shit just dont vote on an AFK and peace out. This is also true, and was exactly what I was thinking getting to this point. 1-2 votes on a bunch of different people is ridiculously easy for the mafia to manipulate. As I posted earlier, lynching an inactive is just silly. That includes Damdred. If he doesn't post by this time day 3, I'm fine with a lynch on him. Until then, we have no idea why he didn't come back and his disappearance says nothing to us about whether or not he's mafia. Of the people with votes right now, I would most prefer a lynch of Vivax. I could live with a Rels lynch. I'm also not comfortable with how heavily prplhz has been defending/sheeping Vivax all game (post 266, post 291, post 355). He said: On September 11 2018 05:20 prplhz wrote: Generally I find some people who 1) Are good at finding scum 2) Are town And then I sheep them. That's really how I do. I rarely do a lot of analysis because I'm really not very good at it. But I wrote a few points on you that I myself find to be something I would expect more from scum. So prplhz decided to latch onto Vivax? What exactly makes you (prplhz) think Vivax is town? What makes you think he's good at finding scum? | ||
prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On September 12 2018 04:46 Sergiovan wrote: Prplhz: how do you feel about Meapak’s entrance into the thread? I like his town read on me. Bonus points. | ||
prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On September 12 2018 04:55 Qatol wrote: As odd as it is to say considering you wound up voting for me, thank you. This is the post I was looking for, though I disagree with the result (as I still don't think HF's argument made any sense and I still don't think Koshi found me scummy when he died). I'm taking this as a strong statement of "fed up townie who doesn't know what to think after defending himself for 2 pages." This is also true, and was exactly what I was thinking getting to this point. 1-2 votes on a bunch of different people is ridiculously easy for the mafia to manipulate. As I posted earlier, lynching an inactive is just silly. That includes Damdred. If he doesn't post by this time day 3, I'm fine with a lynch on him. Until then, we have no idea why he didn't come back and his disappearance says nothing to us about whether or not he's mafia. Of the people with votes right now, I would most prefer a lynch of Vivax. I could live with a Rels lynch. I'm also not comfortable with how heavily prplhz has been defending/sheeping Vivax all game (post 266, post 291, post 355). He said: So prplhz decided to latch onto Vivax? What exactly makes you (prplhz) think Vivax is town? What makes you think he's good at finding scum? I already thought he was town yesterday for pushing against the Kaley lynch with some decent arguments. I don't know if he's great at finding scum, I agree with him on Damdred and I find it more likely we'll lynch Damdred over you today. | ||
prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On September 12 2018 04:20 Sergiovan wrote: Qatol: as to post #282 you could be right. I’ve re-read your post with the double negatives (#247) a couple of times and what I was reading into it actually could easily be you mis-writing what you meant or me mis-reading it. I think what you meant was that no pushback = town!kaley which is a fine argument to make but your post still gives me the heebie-jeebies and I just can’t explain why. Qatol’s post #286 shows that he successfully read Koshi as blue d1. Given that Koshi was pushing two townies, HF and myself, as red for most of n1 I can’t think of another reason for scum to kill Koshi besides his role. (I can’t expect any of you to share my read of this necessarily at this point since I haven’t flipped but you’ll have to trust me on this or return to it after I flip). Based on my gut feelings and this potential scum slip Qatol is second priority for the lynch. Though his push on Vivax has me going back and forth in my head since I happen to think Vivax is scummier than Qatol and I do not think they are scum together since I believe that Vivax’s RB claim is too high risk for a scum team with multiple active members in this town. You are correct in what I meant. I probably worded it poorly. My apologies. Post #286 wasn't a slip. I stated it again in post #323. He was unnaturally nervous in post #76, and I caught it. And, although I didn't catch it at the time, there isn't really another reason why he would be urgently gathering reads on HF in the middle of the night while drunk (posts #248 and #252) other than vigilante or detective, with vigilante being most likely. He could have waited until he was sober otherwise. I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia caught it too. As far as your case on Vivax goes: + Show Spoiler + On September 12 2018 04:09 Sergiovan wrote: The case for Vivax In this case I will show that Vivax has shown out of game knowledge of alignments that could only come from scum. In post #89 Vivax explains a town read on Kaley that comes mostly “from the gut” while also trying to give real reasoning for it I.e. that Kaley is attacking Rayn. But in post #119 Vivax says that he isn’t sure if Kaley is genuinely pushing Rayn and that he hasn’t read her full post. Therefore the alignment read that Vivax had on Kaley didn’t come from an actual read but was instead manufactured by Vivax ## Vote: Vivax Somewhat tangentially I also believe that, assuming I’m right and Vivax is scum, the other two scum will be very in active as his claim of being role blocked is high reward/high risk as any counter claim would instantly put Vivax on the chopping block while a lack of one could lead towards a ‘confirmed town’ status for Vivax. Assuming a Scum!Vivax I believe the d3 lynch should be RoL since he is an inactive and Vivax put an inexplicable d1 vote on him. Your primary argument is one that was made previously, including by you in post #147. I think it makes sense and it should make sense. However, I disagree that both other two scum have to be inactive. I don't know how new you are to TL mafia, but it's pretty much always been the case that mafia can communicate privately. In this game, in the sample PMs: Mafia has a quicktopic in which they can communicate. That's why Vivax's roleblock claim does not and should not move the needle unless he dies and flips town (which I don't think will happen). If there is a roleblocker at all (also not guaranteed), the mafia could just not use it and have Vivax claim it was placed on him. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On September 12 2018 05:08 prplhz wrote: I already thought he was town yesterday for pushing against the Kaley lynch with some decent arguments. I don't know if he's great at finding scum, I agree with him on Damdred and I find it more likely we'll lynch Damdred over you today. Which push against the Kaley lynch? Which arguments? The ones he later admitted were part of "a crappy feels-read?" Or maybe this one? On September 09 2018 01:16 Vivax wrote: Yea it isn't a smurf after reading through the profile. And it sure as hell isn't a she. I was sure it was a new acc just for this game, meh. I was wrong. But the rapping thing isn't something exclusive to this game. It's just his hobby. I don't want to vote him though. There's too many shitty votes on kaley floating about, some policy like rayn, some for weird analysis of the rap like from Qatol. And you for no reason. If that's the case, why are you pushing for what is effectively a policy lynch on damdred now? Note that Vivax called rayn's policy vote a "shitty vote" in the post I quoted. | ||
prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On September 12 2018 05:40 Qatol wrote: Which push against the Kaley lynch? Which arguments? The ones he later admitted were part of "a crappy feels-read?" Or maybe this one? If that's the case, why are you pushing for what is effectively a policy lynch on damdred now? Note that Vivax called rayn's policy vote a "shitty vote" in the post I quoted. Yes, that one. I don't really know if I get your policy lynch point, but I don't think Damdred is a policy lynch. | ||
raynpelikoneet
Finland42140 Posts
Whats up Serge? Youre voting for confirmed town. | ||
raynpelikoneet
Finland42140 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On September 12 2018 05:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: So Vivax is basically confirmed town unless the roleblock went on Holyflare. Whats up Serge? Youre voting for confirmed town. Or unless there's no roleblocker. Or unless the roleblocker decided not to roleblock (might be an inactive? might be a strategy by the mafia?) | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On September 12 2018 05:47 prplhz wrote: Yes, that one. I don't really know if I get your policy lynch point, but I don't think Damdred is a policy lynch. Then please explain to me in simple terms the reasoning behind the damdred lynch. I get that he said he would be back and didn't come back. How does that make him mafia? | ||
raynpelikoneet
Finland42140 Posts
I am never lynching vivax now anyways, it is way more likely he was just roleblocked because he wasnt exactly under heavy fire when he claimed roleblocked. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland42140 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland42140 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland42140 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
What are your thoughts on my case on him. Qatol: my reasoning for believing that the other two scum are inactive isn’t about their communication it is that the high risk play comes at a time where scum!vivax shouldn’t feel much pressure and, therefore, would only happen if scum!bivax needed to elicit the reaction he got from Rayn because he can’t count on his teammates | ||
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