On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
I occasionally bet on StarCraft matches for fun, so naturally when the WESG Finals came on, I decided to check out the odds on Pinnacle to see if there were any prices worthwhile.
For those who don't know, WESG is a tournament that invites the best players from their respective regions around the world to play each other in a sort of "world cup" format. The problem is, this usually leads to some one-sided matchups.
Enter WESG 2018, Group F:
When I first saw this group, one name stood out to me: Seventy91. It seemed that all the other members of this group were fairly established in the scene, but Seventy91 was a wildcard. Indeed, after some searching around, I was able to find Seventy91's battle.net account, which revealed that he was sub-4000 MMR casual player in Diamond 2:
With all other members of the group above the 6000 MMR level, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Seventy91 would get swept out of the group, losing to every single opponent 0-2. With that in mind, I checked out the odds a few hours before the group started and decided it would be worthwhile to bet on several of Seventy91's opponents to win against him 2-0 (in gambling terms, this is betting against a -1.5 spread).
One of the other players in this group was MacSed, a Chinese Protoss player who usually hovers around 6000-6300 MMR. You would certainly expect a player of this calibre to 2-0 a sub-4000 MMR player over 99% of the time, and that might be an understatement. The price on MacSed winning 2-0 against Seventy91 initially hovered between 1.34-1.37, meaning you could see a 34-37% return when betting on him to win without dropping a map. I put $300 on this bet, as shown:
Here is the thing. At the skill gap of 2000+ MMR and that price, most bettors would agree that this bet has very high EV. The opening line was already priced as if Seventy91 was a 5000+ MMR player, not sub-4000. Nobody in their right mind would bet on the Seventy91 +1.5 spread in this situation.
A couple hours after placing my bet, I noticed that the line for MacSed - 1.5 had moved tremendously, from 1.34 to 2.06. This type of line movement is almost unheard of in SC2. For those unaware, when prices move like this, it can only mean that a person or a group of people have bet an extremely high amount on a single side. In this case, this means that huge money was being put on Seventy91 to win at least one map against MacSed. This is not a natural betting pattern, and given the skill disparity between the two players, I am almost certain that the bets were made with match fixing in mind.
Just look at the difference between the money line price of 1.1 for MacSed compared to the -1.5 spread price of 2.06. This means that somebody out there was confident enough to bet thousands on Seventy91 to win a map, but still thought that MacSed would win the series. This is not a decision that any normal bettor would make without knowledge of a match fix. If you compare the MacSed vs Seventy91 line to the other matches, such as INnoVation vs Stephano, you will see that it is a ludicrous disparity.
Indeed, the match went on and, to no surprise, MacSed ended up losing a map to a player over 2000 MMR below him, in a mirror matchup no less. From my knowledge of this situation, I feel that there is no explanation other than match fixing.
It is also worth noting that the opening lines were similar on all the other matches that Seventy91 played that day, but there were ZERO signs of any bets made towards Seventy91 on those matches. The only match where Seventy91 gained any momentum in the bets was against MacSed, and that ended up being the only map won by Seventy91 in the group stage.
To summarize:
- MacSed (6000-6300 MMR Protoss) played a Best-of-3 match against Seventy91 (<4000 MMR Protoss) in the WESG 2018 group stage and won 2-1. - Betting trends indicate that a huge amount of money was placed for Seventy91 to win a map against MacSed a couple hours before the match started. This heavily skewed the lines to the point where there was an implied >50% probability that Seventy91 would win a game, which is ludicrous. - MacSed likely got offered a sum of money from a broker to lose a map against Seventy91. - MacSed knows that Seventy is a weak opponent, so he will still be able to win the series 2-1 and still have hope to move on in the tournament. - Chinese players have a history with match fixing (see Silky, Coffee, and others banned in 2017). I should have considered that before making any bets on this.
I hope that the replay will be released and that Blizzard/WESG takes this allegation seriously. I know that this is not the most important match, but this is how match fixing scandals start and begin to grow. Although this does not affect the outcome of the tournament, this behaviour cannot be tolerated and I hope that proper investigation takes place so that we can put a stop to this in the future.
I thought maybe Seventy91 was a smurf so I look up how he qualified. He played one match lost to ZeRoX 3-2 -- the highest Zerox player on EU is a master player. Zerox forfeited his spot so that's how Seventy91 got in, so yeah Seventy91 probably is a real <4000 MMR player. I don't see how a <4000 player can take a game off of a 6k+ player, I don't even see them taking a single game off of a 5.2k NA player. Macsed looking pretty suspect here trying to pull a Life by throwing a game and winning the series lol.
Well his "road" to qualification which is losing a series to an unknown doesn't really instill any trust in his abilities. For Macsed to lose an important game versus a diamond 2 player is basically impossible, add to that the statistics you've shown and it doesn't really leave any room for doubt.
If everything you post above is correct this does paint a worrying picture, hope it gets proven and punished if true.
On March 13 2019 09:13 phodacbiet wrote: I thought maybe Seventy91 was a smurf so I look up how he qualified. He played one match lost to ZeRoX 3-2 -- the highest Zerox player on EU is a master player. Zerox forfeited his spot so that's how Seventy91 got in, so yeah Seventy91 probably is a real <4000 MMR player. I don't see how a <4000 player can take a game off of a 6k+ player, I don't even see them taking a single game off of a 5.2k NA player. Macsed looking pretty suspect here trying to pull a Life by throwing a game and winning the series lol.
If you look it up on Aligulac, it shows "ZeRoX' as a 700 rated player - obviously not good and potentially even below master level. Link: aligulac.com (Note the AKA section indicates this is ZeRoX)
In addition, I am certain that the account that I found is tied to Seventy91. The clan is [sfc] and you can see that it leads to this Liquipedia page which has Seventy91 on the roster: liquipedia.net
Don't many players use more than one account, and this dude simply used his Asian server one? And I'm pretty sure you can win a PvP <2000 down. Diamond players can proxy competently, If I played 10 games against these players where they assume I'm a pro I could maybe sneak out a win as a High Diamond.
On March 13 2019 09:21 Achamian wrote: Don't many players use more than one account, and this dude simply used his Asian server one? And I'm pretty sure you can win a PvP <2000 down. Diamond players can proxy competently, If I played 10 games against these players where they assume I'm a pro I could maybe sneak out a win as a High Diamond.
Well he has almost 2000 games as protoss on this account so unless someone else ladder on it's must be around his real level.
Yep this is why I stop betting. There's a lot of match fixing in SC2 and CS:GO that goes unnoticed. I lost quite a bit in the past two years from this.
On March 13 2019 09:21 Achamian wrote: Don't many players use more than one account, and this dude simply used his Asian server one? And I'm pretty sure you can win a PvP <2000 down. Diamond players can proxy competently, If I played 10 games against these players where they assume I'm a pro I could maybe sneak out a win as a High Diamond.
Against a player far better than you and him aware of the skill disparity, I doubt he would allow himself to be proxied to a loss in a tournament setting, right? Things like this can be planned for especially if you're aware that you will most certainly win the game if it lasts long enough.
the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
WESG is probably the best tournament to do this, because most of the matches aren't broadcast. If this is true, it sucks because MacSed is one of the most prolific Chinese players in SC2. He's been around since WoL, but he hasn't accomplished much recently, and probably feels that throwing a game is probably his best bet to get some extra money before he retires.
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
That was entirely meant to show Drager is a proper player. Didn't mean to attack Maru, it was just an example of a recent surprising result; we don't know, however, how he lost so what you are saying here is pure speculation.
On March 13 2019 09:45 The_Red_Viper wrote: Just to make sure, the betting closes before the match actually starts right?
Ah good point, maybe there's a delay on the streamed and someone on place was the one who made the bet? If the game was in fact proxy 4 gates vs cannon rush it would be risky but no too crazy to bet on it after seeing the build even 2000 MMR down.
TBH, a -4000 MMR player has no chance against a pro. I'm 4900 and I've played people like Future or Blord (who either compare or are less skilled than Macsed) and definitely did have the remotest chance of winning a game. If he truly is around 4000MMR, then I don't think this could be normal.
On March 13 2019 09:45 The_Red_Viper wrote: Just to make sure, the betting closes before the match actually starts right?
Ah good point, maybe there's a delay on the streamed and someone on place was the one who made the bet?
Common sense would tell us that ofc the betting has to be closed a good while in advance to make it impossible for people to use live information to bet on these things, i am just trying to make sure because otherwise i don't see any likely alternative to people simply knowing the outcome due to fixing.
(assuming all this information is legit ofc, including line movement, etc)
On March 13 2019 09:43 Solar424 wrote: WESG is probably the best tournament to do this, because most of the matches aren't broadcast. If this is true, it sucks because MacSed is one of the most prolific Chinese players in SC2. He's been around since WoL, but he hasn't accomplished much recently, and probably feels that throwing a game is probably his best bet to get some extra money before he retires.
I partially agree this. But I think some misunderstand between us appeared. macsed was a coach charge of a chinese youth starcraft team,so unavoidably he can't cost too much time in pro practice. Actually he is transating to a caster,he was a caster in recenltly chinese tournaments. Another one is this match was casting by china side channel,after several days the WESG videos and game replays(i am not sure about replays because the organizer of WESG often change) will be released.that was a funny game,cannon rush verse 4 gateway zealot rush.
On March 13 2019 09:49 jeputera wrote: TBH, a -4000 MMR player has no chance against a pro. I'm 4900 and I've played people like Future or Blord (who either compare or are less skilled than Macsed) and definitely did have the remotest chance of winning a game. If he truly is around 4000MMR, then I don't think this could be normal.
The problem is not MacSed dropping a map, the event has a very low probability to happen but it is still possible; it's the fact that he did so when someone bet heavily on this outcome that seems very suspicious.
On March 13 2019 09:45 The_Red_Viper wrote: Just to make sure, the betting closes before the match actually starts right?
Ah good point, maybe there's a delay on the streamed and someone on place was the one who made the bet?
Common sense would tell us that ofc the betting has to be closed a good while in advance to make it impossible for people to use live information to bet on these things, i am just trying to make sure because otherwise i don't see any likely alternative to people simply knowing the outcome due to fixing.
(assuming all this information is legit ofc, including line movement, etc)
You're doubting the shadiness of esports betting sites. There's been problems in the past with organizers insisting on tournaments having a 5-10 minute delay and being in the lobby so they can relay information to bettors.
On March 13 2019 09:03 Powerfoe wrote: Chinese players have a history with match fixing (see Silky, Coffee, and others banned in 2017). I should have considered that before making any bets on this.
Korean players also have a history with match fixing(see Life,BByong,IPXzerg), can I say Maru losing to Meomaika is also match fixing?Of course not. I'm not defending Macsed.I just hate your words.
On March 13 2019 09:43 Solar424 wrote: WESG is probably the best tournament to do this, because most of the matches aren't broadcast. If this is true, it sucks because MacSed is one of the most prolific Chinese players in SC2. He's been around since WoL, but he hasn't accomplished much recently, and probably feels that throwing a game is probably his best bet to get some extra money before he retires.
I partially agree this. But I think some misunderstand between us appeared. macsed was a coach charge of a chinese youth starcraft team,so unavoidably he can't cost too much time in pro practice. Actually he is transating to a caster,he was a caster in recenltly chinese tournaments. Another one is this match was casting by china side channel,after several days the WESG videos and game replays (I am not sure because the WESG organizer often change)will be released.that was a funny game,cannon rush verse 4 gateway zealot rush.
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
This is a serious, well substantiated claim. Blizzard needs to investigate, and needs to be open to the possibility of banning Macsed for life. Deeply troubling and awful for the integrity of the esport.
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
On March 13 2019 09:45 The_Red_Viper wrote: Just to make sure, the betting closes before the match actually starts right?
Here's the timeline from my point of view:
- At 2:40 AM EDT I saw that the line had already moved to 2.06 for MacSed -1.5 - I just watched the stream VOD and I could see that it was played around the same time as Reynor vs PtitDrogo, which would have been around 4:00 AM EDT. It was the 5th match casted of the day on the schedule. - Pinnacle probably closed the match a little past 3 AM EDT, which would still be plenty of time before the start.
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
sorry…I don't have a experence use OBS or youtube so the video quanlity is very low
Thanks a lot
Unsurprisingly hard to tell, seeing no gas, a single gateway-pilon in the main and no attempt to take the natural and not walling off seems like an enormous error but if Macsed knew he was playing against someone far bellow him he could have just think it was a mistake from him.
I could be wrong on the protoss scout timing I just feel like if you see what seventy91 is showing you should know something is up, maybe someone more knowable could tell.
Also losing the two proxy probes to a single zelots should not happen, if Macsed keep them alive he could probably have taken at least a draw.
Both can happen and be legit mistake but choosing to go cannon rush against someone way worst then you, then run in into an hard counter + making those mistake doesn't exactly scream "fair game" when you look at the betting lines.
If this game was presented as the only evidence I would just laugh. Good players can play bad sometimes. What about this evidence about an abnormally big bet made on this match, is that credible?
That is 100 percent not a legit game IMO. Stuff like throwing down a cannon in front of a zealot, letting it hit 3 times and then losing not cancelling it before it dies. Did similar stuff with the ones in his own base. The cannon push is tremendously slow as well. It reeks of extreme laziness. On it's own I'd say he could have just been doing w/e he felt like and not taking it remotely seriously. But in light of the odd betting pattern, I'd say its suspicious as hell. I'd like to see the other two games for reference. Feels worthy of an investigation.
I haven't casted any Starcraft since 2016. Haven't played Since the end of 2016 either.
I don't know any of the Chinese professional gamer's present living / sponsorship / team situations. To understand a player's inclination to matchfix, one must first understand that pro gamer's income.
On March 13 2019 11:07 11cc wrote: If this game was presented as the only evidence I would just laugh. Good players can play bad sometimes. What about this evidence about a abnormally big bet made on this match, is that credible?
not hitting the cancel on a cannon when there's nothing else taking his attention? a wall off that could have been just the gateway? but instead creates an extra weak point with a cannon instead of building it behind the wall? not finishing off the zealot after probe drilling, instead of giving free hits away? not building a cannon even after all of this? Not sending probes to his cannons on the other side of the map? Even the cannon rush, he reveals BOTH probes before Seventy even scouts the buildings.
There is bad day for players, and there is intentionally messing up. This isn't just bad play. On top of all of this, MacSed, as a professional, has to know that if he plays a regular game, he wins, no question. Cheesing often comes from players who are worse trying to catch a better opponent off guard.
I think another question is why the hell is a 4K player playing in WESG. Maybe if there wasn't such a skill differential it would be harder for match fixers to make such outrageous bets.
On March 13 2019 10:23 Oreo7 wrote: This is a serious, well substantiated claim. Blizzard needs to investigate, and needs to be open to the possibility of banning Macsed for life. Deeply troubling and awful for the integrity of the esport.
Blizzard? Well good luck with that. "Blizzard, please check these players' bank account!" Seriously? lol To do that, blizzard need to contact netease, and netease to call the police. And police asks: why do I need to check his bank account? And you say: because some Korea guy lost his money on some gambling website... Well you know gambling is illegal in mainland China right? Well, Kespa would investigate things like this in Korea, but I don't think any other authorities take it so seriously. To be honest, I don't give a shit if there's matchfixing or not, I just watch good games, and if the game is bad, just stop watching it. And I hope all gamblers lose all their money and end up homeless because they deserve it. After they don't have any more money to gamble with, there'll be no matchfixing as well.
Plz just go check the replay. That match was casted by Chinese stream on Huya.com. For the second match Sed just wants to show off by using cannon rush. He failed and that's it. For those bullshit about earning some extra money before retiring, Sed currently does a job as trainers for the scboys training camp and his life is not wholly depend on winning titles.
On March 13 2019 11:34 dunaifen wrote: Plz just go check the replay. That match was casted by Chinese stream on Huya.com. For the second match Sed just wants to show off by using cannon rush. He failed and that's it. For those bullshit about earning some extra money before retiring, Sed currently does a job as trainers for the scboys training camp and his life is not wholly depend on winning titles.
Why would he work for scboy when he's on Invictus Gaming?
"In particular, I have an incredibly strong mirror matchup, as I've learned many meta strategies from watching top NA protoss streamers such as turkeydano and printf. I would say after viewing multiple episodes of minute micro, my micromanagement is at least on par if not better than Macsed."
Also, his description of the game does not match the vod.
On March 13 2019 11:34 dunaifen wrote: Plz just go check the replay. That match was casted by Chinese stream on Huya.com. For the second match Sed just wants to show off by using cannon rush. He failed and that's it. For those bullshit about earning some extra money before retiring, Sed currently does a job as trainers for the scboys training camp and his life is not wholly depend on winning titles.
Why would he work for scboy when he's on Invictus Gaming?
He is semi retired now.
EDIT: Watched the vod, that's.... a pretty typical messy macsed game. Don't think it's anything suspicious.
Other than that account, there is more evidence that Seventy91 is a low level player.
1) His path to qualification for this tournament was a 2-person tournament where he lost 2-3 to this person who is only 700 rated on Aligulac and is probably below Master level. The only reason he got in is because the other person forfeited his spot. So basically, he didn't even have to win against any person to qualify for the tournament.
2) His own aligulac profile is not inspiring with many losses to mediocre players and only beating other Diamonds.
3) I am sure that the 3994 MMR account that I found belongs to him, because the clan is [sfc] which has a Liquipedia page that lists Seventy91 as part of their roster.
Can't believe how many are just writing this off as a "messy game." It's pretty silly that a guy who barely can break masters is taking a game of a "semi-retired" (?) professional player. On top of that, MacSed sees his build coming almost immediately and doesn't respond. at all.
Seems compelling. Agree this is highly suspicious, and to be honest it's the sort of environment where match fixing is more likely; high volume of viewers (& betters) with large skill disparities. Probably worth reviewing other upsets as well.
On March 13 2019 11:34 dunaifen wrote: Plz just go check the replay. That match was casted by Chinese stream on Huya.com. For the second match Sed just wants to show off by using cannon rush. He failed and that's it. For those bullshit about earning some extra money before retiring, Sed currently does a job as trainers for the scboys training camp and his life is not wholly depend on winning titles.
Why would he work for scboy when he's on Invictus Gaming?
He is semi retired now.
EDIT: Watched the vod, that's.... a pretty typical messy macsed game. Don't think it's anything suspicious.
Coupled with the other information regarding skill levels and betting patterns I don't know how you draw this conclusion so easily. Should certainly be investigated at a minimum.
On March 13 2019 11:34 dunaifen wrote: Plz just go check the replay. That match was casted by Chinese stream on Huya.com. For the second match Sed just wants to show off by using cannon rush. He failed and that's it. For those bullshit about earning some extra money before retiring, Sed currently does a job as trainers for the scboys training camp and his life is not wholly depend on winning titles.
Why would he work for scboy when he's on Invictus Gaming?
He is semi retired now.
EDIT: Watched the vod, that's.... a pretty typical messy macsed game. Don't think it's anything suspicious.
Coupled with the other information regarding skill levels and betting patterns I don't know how you draw this conclusion so easily. Should certainly be investigated at a minimum.
I do think it is worth looking into, will be talking to the organizers.
Other than that account, there is more evidence that Seventy91 is a low level player.
1) His path to qualification for this tournament was a 2-person tournament where he lost 2-3 to this person who is only 700 rated on Aligulac and is probably below Master level. The only reason he got in is because the other person forfeited his spot. So basically, he didn't even have to win against any person to qualify for the tournament.
2) His own aligulac profile is not inspiring with many losses to mediocre players and only beating other Diamonds.
3) I am sure that the 3994 MMR account that I found belongs to him, because the clan is [sfc] which has a Liquipedia page that lists Seventy91 as part of their roster.
Can't believe how many are just writing this off as a "messy game." It's pretty silly that a guy who barely can break masters is taking a game of a "semi-retired" (?) professional player. On top of that, MacSed sees his build coming almost immediately and doesn't respond. at all.
this. Overall this looks very suspicious to me, just the coincidence of the hard swing of odds, the unnecessary cannonrush against a weaker player and incredible mistakes in gameplay are hard to write off. I think the most important thing would be checking if the redditpost belongs to the real seventy91 and if he actually is a 4k mmr player or not. If hes actually a 6k player theres a good chance someone knew about it and bet on him, maybe even himself.
macsed played like a 3k player in the game, anyone at a decent level can see that he was either fucking around or struggling with diarrhea, pick one, because playing seriously isn't an option for someone that loses 2 cannons to a single zealot when nothing else is going on.
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
sorry…I don't have a experence use OBS or youtube so the video quanlity is very low
This game is very suspicious. He went to cannon rush and got his probe IN. Confirmed that there was only 1 pylon, gateway incomplete, no gas, and NO CYBER. That should tell you that it's a proxy gate of some sort. What was Macsed reaction? Let's cannon rush the guy that obviously proxying me! Are you going to tell me that Macsed, a 6k+ player who got his probe in and saw a gateway that was incomplete with no gas didnt realize that it was proxy gate?
Also, after scouting and seeing no gas/cyber, Macsed floated 300+ mins from 1:40 onwards. No reaction to a possible cheese at all. At one point, Macsed got up to 500 minerals, what was he saving up for, game 3?
Despite my initial posts, and suspicious as the evidence is, we still have to give MacSed benefit of innocence and I would be so relieved to be completely wrong.
Not only is this game not suspicious, this is not match fixing. We dont have the replay and therefore have zero confirmation as to who saw what. Not to mention, most of these responses were normal. On top of that macsed has been out of play for a good while, is playing someone way worse than him, and likely just wanted to get to the next game. If this game is suspicious, MarineKing match fixed in proleague all those years ago. The betting line is weird. Its not suspicious. Just a little weird. But weirder things have happened. I HIGHLY SUGGEST PEOPLE STOP PITCHFORKING UNTIL WE SEE THE REPLAY, NOT JUST A REALLY BAD VOD.
On March 13 2019 11:34 dunaifen wrote: Plz just go check the replay. That match was casted by Chinese stream on Huya.com. For the second match Sed just wants to show off by using cannon rush. He failed and that's it. For those bullshit about earning some extra money before retiring, Sed currently does a job as trainers for the scboys training camp and his life is not wholly depend on winning titles.
Why would he work for scboy when he's on Invictus Gaming?
He is semi retired now.
EDIT: Watched the vod, that's.... a pretty typical messy macsed game. Don't think it's anything suspicious.
Coupled with the other information regarding skill levels and betting patterns I don't know how you draw this conclusion so easily. Should certainly be investigated at a minimum.
I do think it is worth looking into, will be talking to the organizers.
As mentioned this is typical for not only macsed but for the more "OG" Chinese protoss players as well. Not outstanding mechanics or multitasking but insane but brilliant builds and strats, like Phoenix Colossus, shoutout to Jim. I really dont think this even remotely worth looking into, this is nothing more than TL and reddit being bored and needing something to do.
Imao. According to couloredfirst, Chinese biggest SC2 caster, who also be present and watahes the race, MacSed does want to play jokes with that player, and hence he chooses cannon rush, while the opponent uses 4bg with 3 bgs hidden outside. Also, how can you make such judgements to a widely-praised old player? Just because you lose your money? Life, Yoda also had their match fixing in their SPL races, so you can tell me Maru also has a match fixing vs. Meomaika?
On March 13 2019 11:34 dunaifen wrote: Plz just go check the replay. That match was casted by Chinese stream on Huya.com. For the second match Sed just wants to show off by using cannon rush. He failed and that's it. For those bullshit about earning some extra money before retiring, Sed currently does a job as trainers for the scboys training camp and his life is not wholly depend on winning titles.
Why would he work for scboy when he's on Invictus Gaming?
He is semi retired now.
EDIT: Watched the vod, that's.... a pretty typical messy macsed game. Don't think it's anything suspicious.
Coupled with the other information regarding skill levels and betting patterns I don't know how you draw this conclusion so easily. Should certainly be investigated at a minimum.
I do think it is worth looking into, will be talking to the organizers.
As mentioned this is typical for not only macsed but for the more "OG" Chinese protoss players as well. Not outstanding mechanics or multitasking but insane but brilliant builds and strats, like Phoenix Colossus, shoutout to Jim. I really dont think this even remotely worth looking into, this is nothing more than TL and reddit being bored and needing something to do.
The sole fact that someone went ahead and bet a large amount of money on a 4k taking a game off of 6k makes this game suspect one way or another. In best case it means that someone on-site who saw the game happen live placed the bet before betting was closed. Which is, arguably, not a good thing either.
Highly suspicious game, horrible cannon rush and awful defense from 6k+. Only explanation I can see is that MacSed is aware of his MMR and playing sloppy, confident he can win next game. On the other hand, it's his 2nd match after 0-2 vs Scarlett, in group stage where score matters and it was doable group for him.
On March 13 2019 12:31 MarathonMan wrote: Not only is this game not suspicious, this is not match fixing. We dont have the replay and therefore have zero confirmation as to who saw what. Not to mention, most of these responses were normal. On top of that macsed has been out of play for a good while, is playing someone way worse than him, and likely just wanted to get to the next game. If this game is suspicious, MarineKing match fixed in proleague all those years ago. The betting line is weird. Its not suspicious. Just a little weird. But weirder things have happened. I HIGHLY SUGGEST PEOPLE STOP PITCHFORKING UNTIL WE SEE THE REPLAY, NOT JUST A REALLY BAD VOD.
There's multiple places to find the VODS. Better quality.
Why is every single poster that denies the evidence from brand new accounts? Why are all of you pulling what about isms?
On March 13 2019 12:59 yht9657 wrote: Mad gambler accusing progamer of matchfixing based on zero credible evidence, I guess that's just how esports work these days.
Mad gamblers already caught two of the biggest Starcraft pros red-handed. Guess that's how esports works.
On March 13 2019 11:34 dunaifen wrote: Plz just go check the replay. That match was casted by Chinese stream on Huya.com. For the second match Sed just wants to show off by using cannon rush. He failed and that's it. For those bullshit about earning some extra money before retiring, Sed currently does a job as trainers for the scboys training camp and his life is not wholly depend on winning titles.
Why would he work for scboy when he's on Invictus Gaming?
He is semi retired now.
EDIT: Watched the vod, that's.... a pretty typical messy macsed game. Don't think it's anything suspicious.
Coupled with the other information regarding skill levels and betting patterns I don't know how you draw this conclusion so easily. Should certainly be investigated at a minimum.
I do think it is worth looking into, will be talking to the organizers.
As mentioned this is typical for not only macsed but for the more "OG" Chinese protoss players as well. Not outstanding mechanics or multitasking but insane but brilliant builds and strats, like Phoenix Colossus, shoutout to Jim. I really dont think this even remotely worth looking into, this is nothing more than TL and reddit being bored and needing something to do.
A cannon rush isn't some brilliant strategy. It's been around since the 90s. And a 6k player, who had the intel advantage, throws it away and loses to a Diamond. So is MacSed just insanely terrible? Because his first match against Seventy was so one sided that Seventy just gave up and a moved before they even got to three bases.
Hey everyone, WESG admin here. I'm on-site as one of the two non-Chinese referees, and by sheer coincidence I was the one to sit right behind MacSed and Seventy91 as they played their match (they sit next to each other). I'm not here to confirm or deny any suspicions, but I think it would be valuable if I offered my perspective and a bit of info in as neutral a way as I can.
- The second game in the series was won by Seventy91. I alternated looking at both players' screens during that game, and did not notice them making any errors on purpose. Seventy91 was certainly trying very hard and got frustrated if he made a misclick. MacSed looked like he did in his previous games (I'd been a ref for another of his matches before this one): focused, looking at the screen and with pro-level APM. Again: this does not prove or disprove anything, but it's not like MacSed was afk or something, or explicitly trolling. He looked serious.
- The game was very scrappy and unusual. I haven't looked at the replay, so this is from memory from what I saw yesterday. Seventy91 went for a Zealot rush with 4 (I think?) gateways, one of which was in his main (something he later told me he did by accident, and which he said helped him win the game) and three were proxied near MacSed's base. MacSed, on the other hand, went for a cannon rush. He was unable to keep Seventy91's Zealots out of his base, and his cannon rush did not progress fast enough so he ran out of money to continue and lost the game.
- I remember a moment where MacSed lost two of his probes doing the cannon rush in Seventy91's base to a Zealot. I don't know if those were all of his probes. I was looking at Seventy91's screen at that moment and remember thinking at that time that that was a blunder by MacSed. I do not know where MacSed was looking at that moment, I didn't see his screen then. The replay will probably help with this. I don't remember having any other thoughts regarding blunders or mistakes on MacSed's end during the game.
- After game two, and as we quickly went into the third game, I remember seeing that MacSed chatted briefly with someone in the StarCraft client. They were two or three brief lines, and the other person responded quickly. I don't read Chinese so I can't say what was said, but I do know that there were at least one (but possibly two) instances of censorship in his already short messages (where the client shows !@% rather than the word you typed). My interpretation of that was that MacSed was frustrated / surprised and said something that included curse words, along the lines of 'what is this shit'.
- I have collected the replays for this match, they are looked at by people from StarLadder. I also heard (but cannot yet confirm) that the Chinese are also looking into it. Once I get to the venue today I will ask around to see who is working on this, and whether MacSed is being approached or not. I do know that one of the main event organisers (great guy, fan of StarCraft), is concerned about the issue and he was one of the people to ask me to look at this topic.
This is all the relevant info I can think of right now. If anyone has any specific questions let me know. I have to say though that I'm having a hard time reaching TeamLiquid.net and this topic in particular through the Great Firewall without VPN (which I can't get working on my laptop), so I don't think I'll be able to closely follow this topic. I'll try to look here on my phone throughout the day, but I may not be responding for a while.
On March 13 2019 12:59 yht9657 wrote: Mad gambler accusing progamer of matchfixing based on zero credible evidence, I guess that's just how esports work these days.
Ya it's not like we had dozens of match fixing/betting observer case with abnormal betting line movement in SC2 across the years. I mean what the hell is he suppose to do, write to the chinese police to warn them about a possible match fixing in a inconsequential B-tiers-esport match?
At least this way the chinese scene and the organizor will be able to look into this and if they find something, contact Blizz so he's banned and if there's nothing there's nothing.
Edit: Didn't see the WESG ref post, nice to know they are looking into, with a bit of luck it's just coincidences.
On March 13 2019 13:08 VanCaspel wrote: Hey everyone, WESG admin here. I'm on-site as one of the two non-Chinese referees, and by sheer coincidence I was the one to sit right behind MacSed and Seventy91 as they played their match (they sit next to each other). I'm not here to confirm or deny any suspicions, but I think it would be valuable if I offered my perspective and a bit of info in as neutral a way as I can.
- The second game in the series was won by Seventy91. I alternated looking at both players' screens during that game, and did not notice them making any errors on purpose. Seventy91 was certainly trying very hard and got frustrated if he made a misclick. MacSed looked like he did in his previous games (I'd been a ref for another of his matches before this one): focused, looking at the screen and with pro-level APM. Again: this does not prove or disprove anything, but it's not like MacSed was afk or something, or explicitly trolling. He looked serious.
- The game was very scrappy and unusual. I haven't looked at the replay, so this is from memory from what I saw yesterday. Seventy91 went for a Zealot rush with 4 (I think?) gateways, one of which was in his main (something he later told me he did by accident, and which he said helped him win the game) and three were proxied near MacSed's base. MacSed, on the other hand, went for a cannon rush. He was unable to keep Seventy91's Zealots out of his base, and his cannon rush did not progress fast enough so he ran out of money to continue and lost the game.
- I remember a moment where MacSed lost two of his probes doing the cannon rush in Seventy91's base to a Zealot. I don't know if those were all of his probes. I was looking at Seventy91's screen at that moment and remember thinking at that time that that was a blunder by MacSed. I do not know where MacSed was looking at that moment, I didn't see his screen then. The replay will probably help with this. I don't remember having any other thoughts regarding blunders or mistakes on MacSed's end during the game.
- After game two, and as we quickly went into the third game, I remember seeing that MacSed chatted briefly with someone in the StarCraft client. They were two or three brief lines, and the other person responded quickly. I don't read Chinese so I can't say what was said, but I do know that there were at least one (but possibly two) instances of censorship in his already short messages (where the client shows !@% rather than the word you typed). My interpretation of that was that MacSed was frustrated / surprised and said something that included curse words, along the lines of 'what is this shit'.
- I have collected the replays for this match, they are looked at by people from StarLadder. I also heard (but cannot yet confirm) that the Chinese are also looking into it. Once I get to the venue today I will ask around to see who is working on this, and whether MacSed is being approached or not. I do know that one of the main event organisers (great guy, fan of StarCraft), is concerned about the issue and he was one of the people to ask me to look at this topic.
This is all the relevant info I can think of right now. If anyone has any specific questions let me know. I have to say though that I'm having a hard time reaching TeamLiquid.net and this topic in particular through the Great Firewall without VPN (which I can't get working on my laptop), so I don't think I'll be able to closely follow this topic. I'll try to look here on my phone throughout the day, but I may not be responding for a while.
Thanks for the information, it's great to hear that the organizers are taking this seriously but also not jumping to conclusions. Best of luck getting to the bottom of this, one way or another.
On March 13 2019 11:07 11cc wrote: If this game was presented as the only evidence I would just laugh. Good players can play bad sometimes. What about this evidence about a abnormally big bet made on this match, is that credible?
not hitting the cancel on a cannon when there's nothing else taking his attention? a wall off that could have been just the gateway? but instead creates an extra weak point with a cannon instead of building it behind the wall? not finishing off the zealot after probe drilling, instead of giving free hits away? not building a cannon even after all of this? Not sending probes to his cannons on the other side of the map? Even the cannon rush, he reveals BOTH probes before Seventy even scouts the buildings.
There is bad day for players, and there is intentionally messing up. This isn't just bad play. On top of all of this, MacSed, as a professional, has to know that if he plays a regular game, he wins, no question. Cheesing often comes from players who are worse trying to catch a better opponent off guard.
On March 13 2019 13:08 VanCaspel wrote: Hey everyone, WESG admin here. I'm on-site as one of the two non-Chinese referees, and by sheer coincidence I was the one to sit right behind MacSed and Seventy91 as they played their match (they sit next to each other). I'm not here to confirm or deny any suspicions, but I think it would be valuable if I offered my perspective and a bit of info in as neutral a way as I can.
- The second game in the series was won by Seventy91. I alternated looking at both players' screens during that game, and did not notice them making any errors on purpose. Seventy91 was certainly trying very hard and got frustrated if he made a misclick. MacSed looked like he did in his previous games (I'd been a ref for another of his matches before this one): focused, looking at the screen and with pro-level APM. Again: this does not prove or disprove anything, but it's not like MacSed was afk or something, or explicitly trolling. He looked serious.
- The game was very scrappy and unusual. I haven't looked at the replay, so this is from memory from what I saw yesterday. Seventy91 went for a Zealot rush with 4 (I think?) gateways, one of which was in his main (something he later told me he did by accident, and which he said helped him win the game) and three were proxied near MacSed's base. MacSed, on the other hand, went for a cannon rush. He was unable to keep Seventy91's Zealots out of his base, and his cannon rush did not progress fast enough so he ran out of money to continue and lost the game.
- I remember a moment where MacSed lost two of his probes doing the cannon rush in Seventy91's base to a Zealot. I don't know if those were all of his probes. I was looking at Seventy91's screen at that moment and remember thinking at that time that that was a blunder by MacSed. I do not know where MacSed was looking at that moment, I didn't see his screen then. The replay will probably help with this. I don't remember having any other thoughts regarding blunders or mistakes on MacSed's end during the game.
- After game two, and as we quickly went into the third game, I remember seeing that MacSed chatted briefly with someone in the StarCraft client. They were two or three brief lines, and the other person responded quickly. I don't read Chinese so I can't say what was said, but I do know that there were at least one (but possibly two) instances of censorship in his already short messages (where the client shows !@% rather than the word you typed). My interpretation of that was that MacSed was frustrated / surprised and said something that included curse words, along the lines of 'what is this shit'.
- I have collected the replays for this match, they are looked at by people from StarLadder. I also heard (but cannot yet confirm) that the Chinese are also looking into it. Once I get to the venue today I will ask around to see who is working on this, and whether MacSed is being approached or not. I do know that one of the main event organisers (great guy, fan of StarCraft), is concerned about the issue and he was one of the people to ask me to look at this topic.
This is all the relevant info I can think of right now. If anyone has any specific questions let me know. I have to say though that I'm having a hard time reaching TeamLiquid.net and this topic in particular through the Great Firewall without VPN (which I can't get working on my laptop), so I don't think I'll be able to closely follow this topic. I'll try to look here on my phone throughout the day, but I may not be responding for a while.
Thank you for the info. It definitely seems suspicious to me but I hope it turns out that there was no match fixing.
On March 13 2019 13:55 Mountain_Lee wrote: macsed is a decent guy with good reputation, he just spent too much time on CS:GO and Dota2 Autochess these days.
6000+MMR ...... haha that's history
Yeah, someone just happened to bet few thousand bucks on unknown amatuer player, against well established professional player. Must be a real coincidence.
same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
it's not like millions of people are betting on these games...
out of an already small pool of betters a smaller group bet a LOT of money on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed. No one else, just Macsed. people see that as a coincidence?
I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because it's because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
Waxangel, can you edit the OP's post to mention this? People should know about all the evidence, and not just the OP's point of view. Otherwise, it becomes a smear campaign against MacSed.
I'm not saying things like this shouldn't be investigated. They should. But if you got a response from Pinnacle, then this is critical information that everybody needs to know and it shouldn't be buried on the 5th page of this thread.
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because it's because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
Waxangel, can you edit the OP's post to mention this? People should know about all the evidence, and not just the OP's point of view. Otherwise, it becomes a smear campaign against MacSed.
I'm not saying things like this shouldn't be investigated. They should. But if you got a response from Pinnacle, then this is critical information that everybody needs to know and it shouldn't be buried on the 5th page of this thread.
Well, in context of previous suspicious betting lines and the mixed response from betting sites, I don't think this piece of information is substantive (I was checking mostly to see if the OP's claim was TOTALLY bogus). Without context, this kind of information could read as a defense of MacSed, when it really doesn't support any side of the argument. Stay tuned for a more contextualized master post from TL, depending on how this issue develops.
to the people implying that Starcraft has had matchfixers from various countries before, I want to remind you all of something else: every eSports title has had matchfixers, perhaps from every major region on the planet. I've seen this happen with... League of Legends (HKeSports, AhQ Korea) CS:GO (iBuyPower to name the tip of the iceberg) DoTA 2 (sQreen's Squad) Hearthstone: https://www.pcgamer.com/report-claims-pervasive-match-fixing-in-chinas-pro-hearthstone-scene/ Oh, and then we have Starcraft.
a persson with ZERO evidence blames a player for matchfixing just cause he had a good cheese or defended a good cheese ? this whole topic is a shame NOT BLAME PEOPLE WITHOUT EVIDENCE
@Waxangel and Pinnacle , these answers by Pinnacle are normal, they rarely cancell even suspicious CS matchfix with odds dropping from 5 to 1.1 . Here odds were "about normal" 2-0 of Macsed moving around 1.5-2.5 is "okay". Its not like Macsed did drop whole series with odds falling from 7 to 1.5 on Seventy's win. For pinnacle these lines are okay. But for any normal person they are not.
This is extremely suspicious and all the 1-3 post accounts dismissing it completely is even more suspicious xD they offer no good counter arguments and reinforces the sentiment that the matchfixers are making throw away accounts. I don't think people realize what a difference of 2k MMR means for players. It's like if the diamond guy had lost (and looked really stupid doing it) to a low silver player. At least that's my opinion.
On March 13 2019 15:54 Drake wrote: a persson with ZERO evidence blames a player for matchfixing just cause he had a good cheese or defended a good cheese ? this whole topic is a shame NOT BLAME PEOPLE WITHOUT EVIDENCE
There's evidence in the OP. You should probably (re-)read the OP.
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
Contacting pinnacle, who have access to the full betting information, should have been the first thing that should have been done in this situation but didn't. Maybe because their answer wouldn't fit his argument?
If Pinnacle says there was nothing strange, that's probably the end of it.
Unless Macsed suddenly confesses or some chat logs turn up, I don't see how anyone could prove this. It seems like it is really difficult to investigate matchfixing by starting with the players or the games themselves.
As a casual diamond player, I would really like seeing myself in a groupstage of a big offline tournament, then winning one game against a pro player (preferably Serral or Maru), and eventually getting paid. That must be fun.
There are still mornings like that where you see such a news on TL and it sucks :/. Not as bad as the big ones within the korean scene that happened the last few years, but it's a not so friendly reminder that these sort of things ain't in the past yet.
This looks very suspicious (I trust the OP for the betting lines thing), especially considering that a GM/ex-pro can lose against a top master (mayyybe mid-master) but against a diamond no way, it's not in the variance threshold of upsets imho. Hopefully we'll get more intel though.
On March 13 2019 18:16 Popkiller wrote: If Pinnacle says there was nothing strange, that's probably the end of it.
Unless Macsed suddenly confesses or some chat logs turn up, I don't see how anyone could prove this. It seems like it is really difficult to investigate matchfixing by starting with the players or the games themselves.
Easy way for players to make some money.
Which scares me a fair bit knowing this kind of thing is a possibility.
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
sorry…I don't have a experence use OBS or youtube so the video quanlity is very low
Steals double gas after scouting no probes and 1 gate. Attacks zealots with his probe in opponents base when his whole build is based on keeping them alive. Builds a gate, but doesn't wall. Puts cannon as a wall instead??????? Builds a pylon in minerals instead of rewalling with ANYTHING....+cannon..... killing zealot after the pylon...???? Keeps cannon wallin even with 300 minerals???????
idk, i guess that could be random luck or him playing dumb due to thinking the opponent is much worse than he was... but like... he is 6k+ on kr... this sort of stuff... literally never happens... :/ really sketch imo
I think pinnacle is known for rather removing a bet if the circumstances are really fishy, so my bet (no pun intended..) would be that it gets removed if reported to them.
Edit: didnt see that pinnacle was emailed. Strange that they don't cancel that bet. I dont want to say its a guaranteed matchfix, and a stupid loss _can_ happen while it doesn't 99,999999999999% of the time. Yet if that scenario occurs its unlikely a person did also bet on it to shift the whole line.
Either that was a really mad person or a fix to me but in any case, if you don't have proof its always just an assumption.
You are making a very serious accusation only because someone lost to a much better player? I don't believe TL is allowing this. You could post this s**t every time when Cinderella story happens and made you lose money. This is why gamblers are so annoying in any sports community.
On March 13 2019 19:55 p1cass0 wrote: You are making a very serious accusation only because someone lost to a much better player? I don't believe TL is allowing this. You could post this s**t every time when Cinderella story happens and made you lose money. This is why gamblers are so annoying in any sports community.
Last minute bet that shift the betting line are not that common, a stupid loss like that is not that common (game is extremly sloppy and weird). Neither of them are "proof" of anything. When they happen at the same time tho, it seems pretty obvious that it was either match fixed or, possibly, a delay let someone bet after the game had started and the sloppiness ensued?
Either way, without an actual proof (chat log/tracked money), it seems crazy to punish, even tho I would guess that it's highly likely it was fixed.
On March 13 2019 19:55 p1cass0 wrote: You are making a very serious accusation only because someone lost to a much better player? I don't believe TL is allowing this. You could post this s**t every time when Cinderella story happens and made you lose money. This is why gamblers are so annoying in any sports community.
You really shouldnt backseat moderate, especially when you're clearly in the wrong/ didnt bother to read through the evidence.
I agree, it's not 100% definitive, each individual element of the story could be explained away as unlikely happenstance, but since all of them happened at once, it's basically 99% sure. It's not tangible proof, but more than enough circumstential proof for me, and certainly enough to talk about the possibility that indeed it happened.
Would you people count it as match fixing if MacSed told someone beforehand he was gonna play less than seriously versus his newbie opponent? This kind of insider information could make the eccentric bet ~+EV...
I mean, there's gotta be somekinda foresight in play here, but perhaps not necessarily intentional match fixing.
On March 13 2019 20:45 Puosu wrote: Would you people count it as match fixing if MacSed told someone beforehand he was gonna play less than seriously versus his newbie opponent? This kind of insider information could make the eccentric bet ~+EV...
I mean, there's gotta be somekinda foresight in play here, but perhaps not necessarily intentional match fixing.
Yes, it would be "match fixing". Or at least against the rule of the tournament. Playing worst against a specific opponent is unfair to the rest of the field and goes against the integrity of the tournament.
Of course it's hard to prove that you had "intentions". That you "meant to play bad" or "less than seriously". It's why something more is needed to be 100% sure.
I am guessing we will never get that definitive proof. I hope MacSed realise how close he was to getting caught and never do it again, basically. I guess it's the best case for the scene now.
you know what else is probably fixed? betting on that stupid spongebob song being sung or not at the super bowl. did you know that betting sites had odds for that? how easy is it for the people and that actually control the event, and their friends, to simply bet "no they won't sing it" and then not have them sing it.
sorry I know this is a complete tangent but that's bothered me since then, lol
1) Macsed knows there's a massive skill disparity between him and his opponent and the only way he can lose is by playing very risky/doing a dumb build. What does he do? A very weak, slow version of a cannon rush beginning below the opponents base that he intentionally misexecutes in all kinds of ways.
2) He scouts the opponent's base early and based on what he sees he can easily tell the opponent is proxying. How does he react? Just continues with his very stupid, slow cannon rush instead of making defense at home. If he was trying to win he would halt his cannon rush at that moment and just defend his main and win the game. He knows way better than to continue the cannon rush after seeing what he scouted.
3) Intentionally loses a cannon he was making in the opponent's base when his attention couldn't even be taken by anything else. He's literally sitting there wiggling his probes back and forth letting the cannon die without a cancel LOL
4) Opponent makes a gateway in his own base instead of going completely all in with his proxy because he knows MacSed is going to cannon rush him (its prearranged) and has to give a show of supposedly "defending" it. If he didn't know a cannon rush was on the way it would be better to have everything proxied.
5) Oh no! Now a zealot is on the way to my main! Better make a very late wall when I knew this was coming a long time ago. I'll use a gateway and a super vulnerable cannon when I could just complete the wall with a resilient gateway forming a much stronger more efficient wall if I actually wanted to win!
6) As OP mentioned, the betting line moving like this is a suspicious as it gets. No one would be huge money on Seventy to win unless it was fixed.
Yes, he matchfixed. It's very stupid to overlook the massive amount of evidence of this. There's more that I haven't even mentioned here as if that wasn't already more than enough.
Oh I even forgot to mention the fact that at the end he let both zealots live with almost no HP left because he realized he needs to make sure there's no chance for him to win or draw the game.
On March 13 2019 20:45 Puosu wrote: Would you people count it as match fixing if MacSed told someone beforehand he was gonna play less than seriously versus his newbie opponent? This kind of insider information could make the eccentric bet ~+EV...
I mean, there's gotta be somekinda foresight in play here, but perhaps not necessarily intentional match fixing.
I might be in the wrong, but I am fairly certain that matchfixing in the past hasn't just been stuff like a player saying "I will fold in game two" but rather a third party acquiring information on an opener and then giving it to the opponent. That is, as far as I can recollect, part of what occured in the big BW match fixing scandal.
That is not to say that a mid-Dia player could certainly win even with a rush against a pro, but perhaps it is possible.
On March 13 2019 21:56 travis wrote: yeah it was probably fixed
you know what else is probably fixed? betting on that stupid spongebob song being sung or not at the super bowl. did you know that betting sites had odds for that? how easy is it for the people and that actually control the event, and their friends, to simply bet "no they won't sing it" and then not have them sing it.
sorry I know this is a complete tangent but that's bothered me since then, lol
I would assume insider trading laws apply to betting or there are similar ones, so that would be a major felony level crime for what could only be a minor payout if you're not going to throw up major red flags.
If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
On March 13 2019 21:56 travis wrote: yeah it was probably fixed
you know what else is probably fixed? betting on that stupid spongebob song being sung or not at the super bowl. did you know that betting sites had odds for that? how easy is it for the people and that actually control the event, and their friends, to simply bet "no they won't sing it" and then not have them sing it.
sorry I know this is a complete tangent but that's bothered me since then, lol
On a kinda related note.
You can bet on freaking election results on that site. Jesus fucking christ
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
the people who don't think this is a matchfix simply don't grasp statistics or probability. i don't know much about gambling, but the OP laid out the data in a plain and detailed way about how the lines work and why they move in certain ways, and it's consistent with expert info i've read in the past. "maybe he just dropped a map to a diamond" is one thing, "maybe he just dropped a map to a diamond and a bunch of people randomly predicted it in an exact enough fashion to profit from it"? are we braindead?
the fact that the builds were cheesy also has nothing to do with anything, because intentionally doing weird builds is a common and obvious way to cover matchfixing as it gives you an automatic excuse for why you might have fucked up against a weaker player. it would have been planned, just like the whole thing would have been planned
i'm not a witch hunt person, but without a gambling expert coming in with an alternate take on what happened with the lines i don't see how you can think he's innocent at this point. by all means if someone has some real analysis based on real knowledge that shows the betting lines weren't anomalous, please post it
On March 13 2019 22:53 brickrd wrote: but without a gambling expert coming in with an alternate take on what happened with the lines
Without taking a side on the issue, that has already happened, as Pinnacle hasn't voided the bets when they've done so in the past when they thought it was clear.
On March 13 2019 15:54 Drake wrote: a persson with ZERO evidence blames a player for matchfixing just cause he had a good cheese or defended a good cheese ? this whole topic is a shame NOT BLAME PEOPLE WITHOUT EVIDENCE
he provided pretty strong evidence in the OP and cheese is not reason for blaming the player for matchfixing, the suspicion was there even before the game started you seem to have ZERO understanding of the topic and still you try to preach something to others WITH CAPSLOCK? really? your whole post is a shame
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
lets just assume he DID matchfix here for the sake of the argument.
why temporary? why the double standard? life has to go permanently because he had the bigger name and for macsed it would be ok to play again in a few months?
seriously, the illegal betting in esports is huge and i wouldnt even blame the players anymore at this point. wouldnt be surprised if they get forced / blackmailed into it.
Actually i think its possible that master player can win vs GM/Progamer in offline tourney, because i did that myself back in the day, i had very specific tvp mass banshee/helion wol timing build and managed beat progamer with it (won the series 2-1). Though i met the same progamer later in the bracket and he beat me 2-0 then (because he already knew the build, it didnt work anymore)
Yes, looking at the replay is something that needs to be done but regardless of however it looks the real evidence in cases like this is the weird betting line behavior.
The OP explains it very clearly but some people in this thread don't seem to realize: 1 or more people bet thousands of dollars on a far inferior player to lose 2-1, so take 1 map, vs MacSed and MacSed alone.
And this is exactly what happened.
Should be needless to say this is VERY suspicious.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
On March 13 2019 23:27 Penev wrote: Yes, looking at the replay is something that needs to be done but regardless of however it looks the real evidence in cases like this is the weird betting line behavior.
The OP explains it very clearly but some people in this thread don't seem to realize: 1 or more people bet thousands of dollars on a far inferior player to lose 2-1, so take 1 map, vs MacSed and MacSed alone.
And this is exactly what happened.
Should be needless to say this is VERY suspicious.
It is, but it's not a prove of anything. It just shows this needs to be inspected and so far all the sides caring about this are saying it's fine. We have here a referee posting it looked normal, we have the betting side saying there's nothing. All we have is "it looks shady"...
On March 13 2019 23:17 skdsk wrote: Actually i think its possible that master player can win vs GM/Progamer in offline tourney, because i did that myself back in the day, i had very specific tvp mass banshee/helion wol timing build and managed beat progamer with it (won the series 2-1). Though i met the same progamer later in the bracket and he beat me 2-0 then (because he already knew the build, it didnt work anymore)
Except that this is a Diamond 2 ~4000 MMR player beating a KR GM >6000MMR. Very suspicious. Nothing concrete to prove one way or the other but definitely smells fishy.
ok, two things: did anyone had a look at the first game of the series? because, if you plan to lose one map of a Bo3 intentionally against a player who is that much weaker than you that the other two wins are practically guaranteed, you should probably already try to play a bit sloppy on the first map to give the worse player a chance to already win this one without having to use absolutely obvious sloppy play. Second, just the timing of the first cannonrush probe seems to be very, doesn't it? Normally, it should arrive ahead of the forge being finished to start the pylon and build the first cannon as soon as the pylon is up. Then MacSed seems to intentionally try to show his probe to his opponent, which seems also kind of suspicious. Together with the various other "mistakes", what are the odds of losing such a game? like, 5 to 10 percent? And what are the odds that someone places bets in the way they did? Again, probably <5 percent? Which would make that matchfixing with a probablity of over 99,5 percent, assuming that the assumptions are correct. Well, I guess people have been convicted with less certainty ...
On March 13 2019 23:08 M3t4PhYzX wrote: FUCK. BETTING. SITES.
They're destroying everything.. Even e-sports..
Dont know about that, half of the professional sport leagues would flat out go bankrupt if there werent for gambling.
Most of the "casual" fans wouldnt follow games that dont feature their favorites / hometown teams. But if you re gambling, you suddenly have a vested interest in totally irrelevant games.
That is also the main reason, why betting companies and websites give incentives / force you to make bets that include multiple results, not just the one.
On March 13 2019 23:17 skdsk wrote: Actually i think its possible that master player can win vs GM/Progamer in offline tourney, because i did that myself back in the day, i had very specific tvp mass banshee/helion wol timing build and managed beat progamer with it (won the series 2-1). Though i met the same progamer later in the bracket and he beat me 2-0 then (because he already knew the build, it didnt work anymore)
Except that this is a Diamond 2 ~4000 MMR player beating a KR GM >6000MMR. Very suspicious. Nothing concrete to prove one way or the other but definitely smells fishy.
Sure but its possible. But even though i master back in the day, i was terrible, and didnt understand anything about the game, i didnt even bother checking replays.
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence~
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
sorry…I don't have a experence use OBS or youtube so the video quanlity is very low
Ignoring that MacSed, scouted this coming. Ignoring that macsed went for the strangest cannon rush ever, just not making cannons when he has the money to do so and then making it where a zealot can just kill it safely. Ignoring that Macsed apparently doesn't know how to wall a ramp. Ignoring that macsed decides to fully wall his ramp with a cannon only after the zealot is on top of the ramp even though he had the money for a while. Ignoring that Macsed totally fumbled the zealot surround with the probes, alternating between the surround of the zealots for no real reason, such that attack move would had been faster at killing the 2 zealots (not that he did anyways). Ignoring that Macsed decided to remake the cannon on his ramp even though any other building would be better when a zealot is next to it.
How can anyone excuse that Macsed simply decides not to kill two surrounded Zealots on red health and runs away with the probes in circles, never taking the opportunity to kill the red health zealots even when it would be easy to do so? It was kind of an "oh shit I might actually win this game, I have to do something to make sure the other guy doesn't accidently surrender" moment.
But failing a cannon rush on the back of "silly" mistakes seems like a surefire way to intentionally lose a game to a worse player. I bet MacSed could have made it look even more credible if Seventy hadn't proxied him, he was probably confused as to how to best lose in these circumstances. Failing a cannon rush gracefully might even be the kind of thing you can practice for, and the practice is useless if you're getting cheesed yourself. There is a slew of dumb mistakes by the Protoss (losing the probes, floating minerals, not canceling cannons, not finishing off the zealots), that alone are not worth much and wouldn't raise anyone's eyebrows, but combined with the betting pattern make for a very compelling case imo.
On March 13 2019 23:17 skdsk wrote: Actually i think its possible that master player can win vs GM/Progamer in offline tourney, because i did that myself back in the day, i had very specific tvp mass banshee/helion wol timing build and managed beat progamer with it (won the series 2-1). Though i met the same progamer later in the bracket and he beat me 2-0 then (because he already knew the build, it didnt work anymore)
Yes, what you describe sounds possible, you had a very specific build (probably more than one since you state you won the series). A unique cheese build can work if its wonky enough and you get lucky.
Is a scouted proxy gate the kind of build/situation that a GM level protoss should be totally baffled by and lack knowledge how to counter? Eh no, your example is so far away from the actual situation at hand that its not relevant.
For anyone taking pinnacles lack of voiding the bet as proof in Macseds favor, it is not.
I'm not a gamble expert but I can tell you this, sudden and weird bets can happen in gambling. A company/bettingsite like Pinnacle can't keep their credibility if they void a bet just because they lost a lot of money on it. It could be that for some strange reason, person x felt like taking a wild gamble and put a lot of money on macsed losing this one game. The line movement is not normal, it is weird and unnatural but it is probably not enough money to be worth voiding the bet for the company.
Most times when gamblers put a lot of money on big underdogs the betters lose that money, to call foul just because the betters won is not an easy decision to make as Pinnacle. The situation when betts have been voided have probably been when huge amounts of money have been involved, this is obviously a lot but probably not enough for Pinnacle to void it.
Its important to also consider that Pinnacle as a company has a lot of variables to consider when deciding if they want to void a bet, it effects their business in more ways than just not losing the money.
For the lines to move like they do and for Macsed to lose the game as he does it is not conclusive evidence but I would say that it is above 99% likelihood it was matchfixed. It is just to many super unlikely things that happened at once, thats without even looking at the actual game which makes me personally even more sure it was matchfixed.
On March 13 2019 23:17 skdsk wrote: Actually i think its possible that master player can win vs GM/Progamer in offline tourney, because i did that myself back in the day, i had very specific tvp mass banshee/helion wol timing build and managed beat progamer with it (won the series 2-1). Though i met the same progamer later in the bracket and he beat me 2-0 then (because he already knew the build, it didnt work anymore)
Yes, what you describe sounds possible, you had a very specific build (probably more than one since you state you won the series). A unique cheese build can work if its wonky enough and you get lucky.
Is a scouted proxy gate the kind of build/situation that a GM level protoss should be totally baffled by and lack knowledge how to counter? Eh no, your example is so far away from the actual situation at hand that its not relevant.
For anyone taking pinnacles lack of voiding the bet as proof in Macseds favor, it is not.
I'm not a gamble expert but I can tell you this, sudden and weird bets can happen in gambling. A company/bettingsite like Pinnacle can't keep their credibility if they void a bet just because they lost a lot of money on it. It could be that for some strange reason, person x felt like taking a wild gamble and put a lot of money on macsed losing this one game. The line movement is not normal, it is weird and unnatural but it is probably not enough money to be worth voiding the bet for the company.
Most times when gamblers put a lot of money on big underdogs the betters lose that money, to call foul just because the betters won is not an easy decision to make as Pinnacle. The situation when betts have been voided have probably been when huge amounts of money have been involved, this is obviously a lot but probably not enough for Pinnacle to void it.
Its important to also consider that Pinnacle as a company has a lot of variables to consider when deciding if they want to void a bet, it effects their business in more ways than just not losing the money.
For the lines to move like they do and for Macsed to lose the game as he does it is not conclusive evidence but I would say that it is above 99% likelihood it was matchfixed. It is just to many super unlikely things that happened at once, thats without even looking at the actual game which makes me personally even more sure it was matchfixed.
Agree with all of this. It does look super shady, but cmon dude, why are you betting on map score?
On March 13 2019 23:46 ZenithM wrote: Probably nothing to do at this point anymore.
But failing a cannon rush on the back of "silly" mistakes seems like a surefire way to intentionally lose a game to a worse player. I bet MacSed could have made it look even more credible if Seventy hadn't proxied him, he was probably confused as to how to best lose in these circumstances. Failing a cannon rush gracefully might even be the kind of thing you can practice for, and the practice is useless if you're getting cheesed yourself. There is a slew of dumb mistakes by the Protoss (losing the probes, floating minerals, not canceling cannons, not finishing off the zealots), that alone are not worth much and wouldn't raise anyone's eyebrows, but combined with the betting pattern make for a very compelling case imo.
Yep, definitely a perfect strat for faking a loss vs a worse player.
But the probes suddenly escaping instead of delivering 2 more shots and killing both those zealots was a bit too much. There is absolutely 0 reason for doing that and he was right there microing the probes so no way he can claim he was distracted at that moment.
People need to watch the video. This sounds shady in theory but the actual match was even worse.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
lets just assume he DID matchfix here for the sake of the argument.
why temporary? why the double standard? life has to go permanently because he had the bigger name and for macsed it would be ok to play again in a few months?
seriously, the illegal betting in esports is huge and i wouldnt even blame the players anymore at this point. wouldnt be surprised if they get forced / blackmailed into it.
>> #FREELIFE <<
Do you not understand the phrase "at least temporary?"
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
On March 13 2019 23:46 ZenithM wrote: Probably nothing to do at this point anymore.
But failing a cannon rush on the back of "silly" mistakes seems like a surefire way to intentionally lose a game to a worse player. I bet MacSed could have made it look even more credible if Seventy hadn't proxied him, he was probably confused as to how to best lose in these circumstances. Failing a cannon rush gracefully might even be the kind of thing you can practice for, and the practice is useless if you're getting cheesed yourself. There is a slew of dumb mistakes by the Protoss (losing the probes, floating minerals, not canceling cannons, not finishing off the zealots), that alone are not worth much and wouldn't raise anyone's eyebrows, but combined with the betting pattern make for a very compelling case imo.
Yep, definitely a perfect strat for faking a loss vs a worse player.
But the probes suddenly escaping instead of delivering 2 more shots and killing both those zealots was a bit too much. There is absolutely 0 reason for doing that and he was right there microing the probes so no way he can claim he was distracted at that moment.
People need to watch the video. This sounds shady in theory but the actual match was even worse.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
Match was obviously intentionally lost/fixed. It's amazing some people seem to think a player of that level can just 'have a bad game' like that. Even playing mouse only he should've (and would've if he tried) easily won that game.
I believe there was match fixing in this instance.
But still, to play devil's advocate, people of all levels should be allowed to make any mistake, however grave, even INTENTIONAL mistakes. You're not bound by law to always play your best and up to your usual standards. There should be a massive difference between intentionally messing up (which to me is alright if it's done for no reason other than to have fun) and match fixing, which entails more malicious dealings. I wouldn't care one bit if MacSed decided to fuck around and drop a map doing silly shit to a diamond player.
That's why I think you need to look at the betting side of things more than the game itself (at least don't overemphasize the in-game arguments). Like, how much money was actually involved in the line shift, that kind of stuff. And if the betting site is silent about this, not much you can do I'd say... you actually need to prove that money changed hands, essentially.
On March 13 2019 12:31 MarathonMan wrote: Not only is this game not suspicious, this is not match fixing. We dont have the replay and therefore have zero confirmation as to who saw what. Not to mention, most of these responses were normal. On top of that macsed has been out of play for a good while, is playing someone way worse than him, and likely just wanted to get to the next game. If this game is suspicious, MarineKing match fixed in proleague all those years ago. The betting line is weird. Its not suspicious. Just a little weird. But weirder things have happened. I HIGHLY SUGGEST PEOPLE STOP PITCHFORKING UNTIL WE SEE THE REPLAY, NOT JUST A REALLY BAD VOD.
There's multiple places to find the VODS. Better quality.
Why is every single poster that denies the evidence from brand new accounts? Why are all of you pulling what about isms?
Because I normally dont bother with TL. This place is pretty toxic.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
On March 14 2019 01:22 ZenithM wrote: I believe there was match fixing in this instance.
But still, to play devil's advocate, people of all levels should be allowed to make any mistake, however grave, even INTENTIONAL mistakes. You're not bound by law to always play your best and up to your usual standards. There should be a massive difference between intentionally messing up (which to me is alright if it's done for no reason other than to have fun) and match fixing, which entails more malicious dealings. I wouldn't care one bit if MacSed decided to fuck around and drop a map doing silly shit to a diamond player.
That's why I think you need to look at the betting side of things more than the game itself (at least don't overemphasize the in-game arguments). Like, how much money was actually involved in the line shift, that kind of stuff. And if the betting site is silent about this, not much you can do I'd say... you actually need to prove that money changed hands, essentially.
While I do understand your point of not convicting and shaming players without proof I do not agree with you "intentional" arguement.
This is a bloody premier tournament, his dropping a map can make him lose out on advancing (which means not only victory and pride but also money). Not only that, while extremely unlikely in this particular case, if he was losing games "intentionally" while playing others seriously he could give that intentional win to a person that ends up advancing because of that.
I do not think it is alright to lose games on purpose in this context, moreoever there is no way that a player would lose on purpose in a premier tounament with fame and money on the line. The "maybe he wanted to lose for funsies" arguement is stupid, just as likely as Maru not trying to win IEM katawice and trolling for fun is also simply not possible. To be as good as these players are they simply can't be that stupid.
On March 13 2019 11:07 11cc wrote: If this game was presented as the only evidence I would just laugh. Good players can play bad sometimes. What about this evidence about an abnormally big bet made on this match, is that credible?
Yeah you don’t have to go right to match fixing. Maybe he had a big night out and was playing hung over. Mistakes happen in circumstances like that.
And as to the bet, we don’t actually know it was really big. The line moved a lot, but if there was little or not action it wouldn’t take much to move the line, maybe just a few hundred. It wasn’t like this was a marquee match. It could be something as simple as, he goes out and has a few too many drinks and the bartender sees him stagger out and decides to put a few hundred bucks against him.
On March 14 2019 01:22 ZenithM wrote: I believe there was match fixing in this instance.
But still, to play devil's advocate, people of all levels should be allowed to make any mistake, however grave, even INTENTIONAL mistakes. You're not bound by law to always play your best and up to your usual standards. There should be a massive difference between intentionally messing up (which to me is alright if it's done for no reason other than to have fun) and match fixing, which entails more malicious dealings. I wouldn't care one bit if MacSed decided to fuck around and drop a map doing silly shit to a diamond player.
That's why I think you need to look at the betting side of things more than the game itself (at least don't overemphasize the in-game arguments). Like, how much money was actually involved in the line shift, that kind of stuff. And if the betting site is silent about this, not much you can do I'd say... you actually need to prove that money changed hands, essentially.
While I do understand your point of not convicting and shaming players without proof I do not agree with you "intentional" arguement.
This is a bloody premier tournament, his dropping a map can make him lose out on advancing (which means not only victory and pride but also money). Not only that, while extremely unlikely in this particular case, if he was losing games "intentionally" while playing others seriously he could give that intentional win to a person that ends up advancing because of that.
I do not think it is alright to lose games on purpose in this context, moreoever there is no way that a player would lose on purpose in a premier tounament with fame and money on the line. The "maybe he wanted to lose for funsies" arguement is stupid, just as likely as Maru not trying to win IEM katawice and trolling for fun is also simply not possible. To be as good as these players are they simply can't be that stupid.
My point was definitely not that "he lost for funsies, no match fixing huehuehue". Like I said I believe there was match fixing, and there are plenty of good arguments for that and I believe it's nigh impossible someone like MacSed would purposely play like crap in a serious tournament setting (or even to straight-up lose a set on purpose, that's really unfathomable indeed).
But you can't ban him from progaming, just because of one terrible game and a weird line shift on Pinnacle, is all I'm saying. The fans can now view him as a match-fixer if they want, sure (I will probably do that myself), invitationals can stop inviting him, sure, but to do more, again, you need to prove money changed hands.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
First of all, I love how you talk with yourself. Beautiful.
Now - no, I have my doubts and they're reasonable. Match-fixing is a big accusation and as such it needs to be treated properly and not by mob lynch. Also now you're probably getting closer to how it should work. People, who can get the evidence, will do the investigation and then report the result. Not some random person on the interwebz.
I strongly believe that the people that think that there's a chance this isn't a match fix just don't understand the evidence we already have, they either haven't seen it or can't grasp it at all.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
First of all, I love how you talk with yourself. Beautiful.
Now - no, I have my doubts and they're reasonable. Match-fixing is a big accusation and as such it needs to be treated properly and not by mob lynch. Also now you're probably getting closer to how it should work. People, who can get the evidence, will do the investigation and then report the result. Not some random person on the interwebz.
That's elaboration on my own post. I love how you can't tell I was talking to you. Beautiful.
I understand that but good luck. Match fixing would most likely stay hidden in spite of your investigations. So refusing to look at strong evidence means you probably never get to the truth.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
If you don't have the evidence then we consider people innocent. That's how these things work in civilized countries, because incarcerating innocent people is one of the evilest things you can do to a person. So if the officials stay out of this it probably means nothing happened and we can't do anything about it as we cannot get the evidence.
Also learn to edit. It's not that hard, you just press the edit button and then edit your post. Quotation is something quite different.
Edit> While we cannot lock MacSed - this is destroying a his current life and professional career. So let's take it like civilized people, not like a lynching mob.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
There have been many over the years, but considering it mean an immediate lost of the player income if Blizz decided to ban him we should thread carefully. It's good that it has been brought up and that people are looking into it, but at the end of the day we aren't the one that lose our jobs for it, better having a free matchfixer than to convicted an innocent . INno, Soulkey, San, Dark, BuyL, MKP and others were all accused of matchfixing in the past, if we start bringing the hammer on every programmers with a strange line it may be a long list.
This topic is always frustrating on TL. Most people on TL are very bad at conceiving odds and probability math. Added to this there's the irrational disbeleif that a player they support match-fixed. Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I naively thought this would eventually come out but I am so angry that MKP and Inno both got away with it. At least Byul and MKP did the safe thing and quickly retired after accusations were being thrown around. No idea who else is guilty of this but these three spring to mind. Cannot read this thread because TL's readership don't understand betting and I tried so hard to explain how unlikely this was to be anything other than human intervention but it was useless. Probably will get flamed for this post even...
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
There have been many over the years, but considering it mean an immediate lost of the player income if Blizz decided to ban him we should thread carefully. It's good that it has been brought up and that people are looking into it, but at the end of the day we aren't the one that lose our jobs for it, better having a free matchfixer than to convicted an innocent . INno, Soulkey, San, Dark, BuyL, MKP and others were all accused of matchfixing in the past, if we start bringing the hammer on every programmers with a strange line it may be a long list.
Soulkey and Dark? When? Can you link me the betting lines/thread? Inno and MKP were slamdunk matchfixing in Proleague but never heard about these two.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
There have been many over the years, but considering it mean an immediate lost of the player income if Blizz decided to ban him we should thread carefully. It's good that it has been brought up and that people are looking into it, but at the end of the day we aren't the one that lose our jobs for it, better having a free matchfixer than to convicted an innocent . INno, Soulkey, San, Dark, BuyL, MKP and others were all accused of matchfixing in the past, if we start bringing the hammer on every programmers with a strange line it may be a long list.
Soulkey and Dark? When? Can you link me the betting lines/thread? Inno and MKP were slamdunk matchfixing in Proleague but never heard about these two.
On March 13 2019 23:08 M3t4PhYzX wrote: FUCK. BETTING. SITES.
They're destroying everything.. Even e-sports..
Dont know about that, half of the professional sport leagues would flat out go bankrupt if there werent for gambling.
Most of the "casual" fans wouldnt follow games that dont feature their favorites / hometown teams. But if you re gambling, you suddenly have a vested interest in totally irrelevant games.
That is also the main reason, why betting companies and websites give incentives / force you to make bets that include multiple results, not just the one.
99% of sports have way too much money and the players are waaaaay overpaid anyways. Bankrupcy would (maybe) make them good and sports would be about sports again and not (all) about money.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
If you don't have the evidence then we consider people innocent. That's how these things work in civilized countries, because incarcerating innocent people is one of the evilest things you can do to a person.
That's actually not how it works. We convict based on "beyond a reasonable doubt", because if we only convicted on undeniable proof, almost all criminals would go free.
On March 13 2019 23:27 deacon.frost wrote: [quote]
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
There have been many over the years, but considering it mean an immediate lost of the player income if Blizz decided to ban him we should thread carefully. It's good that it has been brought up and that people are looking into it, but at the end of the day we aren't the one that lose our jobs for it, better having a free matchfixer than to convicted an innocent . INno, Soulkey, San, Dark, BuyL, MKP and others were all accused of matchfixing in the past, if we start bringing the hammer on every programmers with a strange line it may be a long list.
Soulkey and Dark? When? Can you link me the betting lines/thread? Inno and MKP were slamdunk matchfixing in Proleague but never heard about these two.
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
There have been many over the years, but considering it mean an immediate lost of the player income if Blizz decided to ban him we should thread carefully. It's good that it has been brought up and that people are looking into it, but at the end of the day we aren't the one that lose our jobs for it, better having a free matchfixer than to convicted an innocent . INno, Soulkey, San, Dark, BuyL, MKP and others were all accused of matchfixing in the past, if we start bringing the hammer on every programmers with a strange line it may be a long list.
Soulkey and Dark? When? Can you link me the betting lines/thread? Inno and MKP were slamdunk matchfixing in Proleague but never heard about these two.
Best part is the random photo of "mastermind investigator Olimoley" holding a freaking plushy duck in a restaurant, it make the rest of the read a bit easier.
On March 13 2019 23:27 deacon.frost wrote: [quote]
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
There have been many over the years, but considering it mean an immediate lost of the player income if Blizz decided to ban him we should thread carefully. It's good that it has been brought up and that people are looking into it, but at the end of the day we aren't the one that lose our jobs for it, better having a free matchfixer than to convicted an innocent . INno, Soulkey, San, Dark, BuyL, MKP and others were all accused of matchfixing in the past, if we start bringing the hammer on every programmers with a strange line it may be a long list.
Soulkey and Dark? When? Can you link me the betting lines/thread? Inno and MKP were slamdunk matchfixing in Proleague but never heard about these two.
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
There have been many over the years, but considering it mean an immediate lost of the player income if Blizz decided to ban him we should thread carefully. It's good that it has been brought up and that people are looking into it, but at the end of the day we aren't the one that lose our jobs for it, better having a free matchfixer than to convicted an innocent . INno, Soulkey, San, Dark, BuyL, MKP and others were all accused of matchfixing in the past, if we start bringing the hammer on every programmers with a strange line it may be a long list.
Soulkey and Dark? When? Can you link me the betting lines/thread? Inno and MKP were slamdunk matchfixing in Proleague but never heard about these two.
Can someone give me some context for all these accusations of Innovation matchfixing? First I've ever heard of it. As for MarineKing for ByuL, let it go guys. He was already investigated and they concluded he was innocent. Kespa has demonstrated they're perfectly willing to convict their star players like Life and Savior, there's no fucking way they'll cover up for MarineKing if they actually found evidence for it.
What if people, instead of posting "my bad" rather went back and edited the random misinformations from their posts?
Anyway, after all that I have seen, I am keeping my pitchforks stowed away until actual criminal convictions happen. We have seen the authorities being able to do so. Some "suspicious activity" is just not gonna cut it for me.
On March 14 2019 03:52 Brutaxilos wrote: Can someone give me some context for all these accusations of Innovation matchfixing? First I've ever heard of it. As for MarineKing for ByuL, let it go guys. He was already investigated and they concluded he was innocent. Kespa has demonstrated they're perfectly willing to convict their star players like Life and Savior, there's no fucking way they'll cover up for MarineKing if they actually found evidence for it.
There was 1 shady betting line for an Inno match when he played Super in Code S in 2015. The bets got voided but like with most of the "weird betting line" accusations, nothing ever came of it. We don't even know if it was investigated at all.
Also maybe note that the prosecutor's report stated that brokers had purposely tampered with betting lines on matches that were not fixed. So betting lines aren't reliable.
On March 14 2019 03:52 opisska wrote: What if people, instead of posting "my bad" rather went back and edited the random misinformations from their posts?
Anyway, after all that I have seen, I am keeping my pitchforks stowed away until actual criminal convictions happen. We have seen the authorities being able to do so. Some "suspicious activity" is just not gonna cut it for me.
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
On March 14 2019 03:52 opisska wrote: What if people, instead of posting "my bad" rather went back and edited the random misinformations from their posts?
Anyway, after all that I have seen, I am keeping my pitchforks stowed away until actual criminal convictions happen. We have seen the authorities being able to do so. Some "suspicious activity" is just not gonna cut it for me.
On March 13 2019 11:34 dunaifen wrote: Plz just go check the replay. That match was casted by Chinese stream on Huya.com. For the second match Sed just wants to show off by using cannon rush. He failed and that's it. For those bullshit about earning some extra money before retiring, Sed currently does a job as trainers for the scboys training camp and his life is not wholly depend on winning titles.
Why would he work for scboy when he's on Invictus Gaming?
He is semi retired now.
EDIT: Watched the vod, that's.... a pretty typical messy macsed game. Don't think it's anything suspicious.
On March 13 2019 12:31 MarathonMan wrote: Not only is this game not suspicious, this is not match fixing. We dont have the replay and therefore have zero confirmation as to who saw what. Not to mention, most of these responses were normal. On top of that macsed has been out of play for a good while, is playing someone way worse than him, and likely just wanted to get to the next game. If this game is suspicious, MarineKing match fixed in proleague all those years ago. The betting line is weird. Its not suspicious. Just a little weird. But weirder things have happened. I HIGHLY SUGGEST PEOPLE STOP PITCHFORKING UNTIL WE SEE THE REPLAY, NOT JUST A REALLY BAD VOD.
There's multiple places to find the VODS. Better quality.
Why is every single poster that denies the evidence from brand new accounts? Why are all of you pulling what about isms?
I wonder.
On March 14 2019 02:20 IshinShishi wrote: I strongly believe that the people that think that there's a chance this isn't a match fix just don't understand the evidence we already have, they either haven't seen it or can't grasp it at all.
There are certainly other reasons that are common in situations like these.
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
There have been many over the years, but considering it mean an immediate lost of the player income if Blizz decided to ban him we should thread carefully. It's good that it has been brought up and that people are looking into it, but at the end of the day we aren't the one that lose our jobs for it, better having a free matchfixer than to convicted an innocent . INno, Soulkey, San, Dark, BuyL, MKP and others were all accused of matchfixing in the past, if we start bringing the hammer on every programmers with a strange line it may be a long list.
Soulkey and Dark? When? Can you link me the betting lines/thread? Inno and MKP were slamdunk matchfixing in Proleague but never heard about these two.
Dark wasn't accused of match-fixing, his opponent was. Same for ByuL.
Well, in forum discussions almost everybody who was part of a suspicious match got accused of matchfixing, because matchfixing can involve both players of a match. But that's exactly what Nakajin referred to: accusations are thrown around way too fast by some people with the effect, that the reputation of innocent people can be damaged
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
I still think that there should be the possibility of redemption for matchfixers in rare cases and only when said matchfixers really started to pubicly speak out and help against matchfixing and to help the scene overall. Than maybe, someone could be allowed to play again. Not that this would be a likely scenario but I really don't like that categorial "never ever under no circumstances"-attitude. I don't think that rare exceptions made possible by an exceptional way of redemption and good will for the scene would hurt the integrity of the scene.
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
I still think that there should be the possibility of redemption for matchfixers in rare cases and only when said matchfixers really started to pubicly speak out and help against matchfixing and to help the scene overall. Than maybe, someone could be allowed to play again. Not that this would be a likely scenario but I really don't like that categorial "never ever under no circumstances"-attitude. I don't think that rare exceptions made possible by an exceptional way of redemption and good will for the scene would hurt the integrity of the scene.
Of course there is a road to redemption, there has been multiple cases of players being banned indefinitely (not sc2) and then unbanned. However you make it sound like it should be "Hi Life, you are banned forever but if you do X, Y and Z and really mean those things we will let you play again". Thats not right, thats not real redemption, thats us telling them what they need to do to get to play again and then them doing that. Its the whole "say you're sorry" thing, when they do of course they don't mean it because you told them to say it.
Life could have started streaming, he could have started doing a lot for the scene and kept doing it for a long time. Maybe he could have been accepted back, he never tried so of course he will not be welcomed back. Redemption needs to be earned not coached towards.
Also only kespa (a private company that does whatever they wished) banned Life forever, Blizzard never gave a statement so there isn't even anything to really discuss here. He wasn't even banned, big deal if he made a come back right now that he cant play in kespas stuff xD
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
I still think that there should be the possibility of redemption for matchfixers in rare cases and only when said matchfixers really started to pubicly speak out and help against matchfixing and to help the scene overall. Than maybe, someone could be allowed to play again. Not that this would be a likely scenario but I really don't like that categorial "never ever under no circumstances"-attitude. I don't think that rare exceptions made possible by an exceptional way of redemption and good will for the scene would hurt the integrity of the scene.
Of course there is a road to redemption, there has been multiple cases of players being banned indefinitely (not sc2) and then unbanned. However you make it sound like it should be "Hi Life, you are banned forever but if you do X, Y and Z and really mean those things we will let you play again". Thats not right, thats not real redemption, thats us telling them what they need to do to get to play again and then them doing that. Its the whole "say you're sorry" thing, when they do of course they don't mean it because you told them to say it.
Life could have started streaming, he could have started doing a lot for the scene and kept doing it for a long time. Maybe he could have been accepted back, he never tried so of course he will not be welcomed back. Redemption needs to be earned not coached towards.
Also only kespa (a private company that does whatever they wished) banned Life forever, Blizzard never gave a statement so there isn't even anything to really discuss here. He wasn't even banned, big deal if he made a come back right now that he cant play in kespas stuff xD
Considering blizzard stripped his world championship title, i think it's pretty clear where they stand on life playing again
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
I still think that there should be the possibility of redemption for matchfixers in rare cases and only when said matchfixers really started to pubicly speak out and help against matchfixing and to help the scene overall. Than maybe, someone could be allowed to play again. Not that this would be a likely scenario but I really don't like that categorial "never ever under no circumstances"-attitude. I don't think that rare exceptions made possible by an exceptional way of redemption and good will for the scene would hurt the integrity of the scene.
Of course there is a road to redemption, there has been multiple cases of players being banned indefinitely (not sc2) and then unbanned. However you make it sound like it should be "Hi Life, you are banned forever but if you do X, Y and Z and really mean those things we will let you play again". Thats not right, thats not real redemption, thats us telling them what they need to do to get to play again and then them doing that. Its the whole "say you're sorry" thing, when they do of course they don't mean it because you told them to say it.
Life could have started streaming, he could have started doing a lot for the scene and kept doing it for a long time. Maybe he could have been accepted back, he never tried so of course he will not be welcomed back. Redemption needs to be earned not coached towards.
Also only kespa (a private company that does whatever they wished) banned Life forever, Blizzard never gave a statement so there isn't even anything to really discuss here. He wasn't even banned, big deal if he made a come back right now that he cant play in kespas stuff xD
Considering blizzard stripped his world championship title, i think it's pretty clear where they stand on life playing again
They have a pretty clear stance indeed. It goes approximately like this: Life? Who?
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
I still think that there should be the possibility of redemption for matchfixers in rare cases and only when said matchfixers really started to pubicly speak out and help against matchfixing and to help the scene overall. Than maybe, someone could be allowed to play again. Not that this would be a likely scenario but I really don't like that categorial "never ever under no circumstances"-attitude. I don't think that rare exceptions made possible by an exceptional way of redemption and good will for the scene would hurt the integrity of the scene.
Of course there is a road to redemption, there has been multiple cases of players being banned indefinitely (not sc2) and then unbanned. However you make it sound like it should be "Hi Life, you are banned forever but if you do X, Y and Z and really mean those things we will let you play again". Thats not right, thats not real redemption, thats us telling them what they need to do to get to play again and then them doing that. Its the whole "say you're sorry" thing, when they do of course they don't mean it because you told them to say it.
Life could have started streaming, he could have started doing a lot for the scene and kept doing it for a long time. Maybe he could have been accepted back, he never tried so of course he will not be welcomed back. Redemption needs to be earned not coached towards.
Also only kespa (a private company that does whatever they wished) banned Life forever, Blizzard never gave a statement so there isn't even anything to really discuss here. He wasn't even banned, big deal if he made a come back right now that he cant play in kespas stuff xD
Considering blizzard stripped his world championship title, i think it's pretty clear where they stand on life playing again
They have a pretty clear stance indeed. It goes approximately like this: Life? Who?
Life should switch to Hearthstone, there Blizzard doesn't care much about throwing games.
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
I still think that there should be the possibility of redemption for matchfixers in rare cases and only when said matchfixers really started to pubicly speak out and help against matchfixing and to help the scene overall. Than maybe, someone could be allowed to play again. Not that this would be a likely scenario but I really don't like that categorial "never ever under no circumstances"-attitude. I don't think that rare exceptions made possible by an exceptional way of redemption and good will for the scene would hurt the integrity of the scene.
Of course there is a road to redemption, there has been multiple cases of players being banned indefinitely (not sc2) and then unbanned. However you make it sound like it should be "Hi Life, you are banned forever but if you do X, Y and Z and really mean those things we will let you play again". Thats not right, thats not real redemption, thats us telling them what they need to do to get to play again and then them doing that. Its the whole "say you're sorry" thing, when they do of course they don't mean it because you told them to say it.
Life could have started streaming, he could have started doing a lot for the scene and kept doing it for a long time. Maybe he could have been accepted back, he never tried so of course he will not be welcomed back. Redemption needs to be earned not coached towards.
Also only kespa (a private company that does whatever they wished) banned Life forever, Blizzard never gave a statement so there isn't even anything to really discuss here. He wasn't even banned, big deal if he made a come back right now that he cant play in kespas stuff xD
Considering blizzard stripped his world championship title, i think it's pretty clear where they stand on life playing again
They have a pretty clear stance indeed. It goes approximately like this: Life? Who?
Hey in other news opisska, want a sig bet on whether a foriegner wins WESG? (I think the odds are firmly in Korean favor, but I can throw you a bone here, and there's still a reasonable chance that Scarlett, Neeb, or Serral take the whole thing down, plus you need a chance to regain your honor anyways).
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
I still think that there should be the possibility of redemption for matchfixers in rare cases and only when said matchfixers really started to pubicly speak out and help against matchfixing and to help the scene overall. Than maybe, someone could be allowed to play again. Not that this would be a likely scenario but I really don't like that categorial "never ever under no circumstances"-attitude. I don't think that rare exceptions made possible by an exceptional way of redemption and good will for the scene would hurt the integrity of the scene.
Of course there is a road to redemption, there has been multiple cases of players being banned indefinitely (not sc2) and then unbanned. However you make it sound like it should be "Hi Life, you are banned forever but if you do X, Y and Z and really mean those things we will let you play again". Thats not right, thats not real redemption, thats us telling them what they need to do to get to play again and then them doing that. Its the whole "say you're sorry" thing, when they do of course they don't mean it because you told them to say it.
Life could have started streaming, he could have started doing a lot for the scene and kept doing it for a long time. Maybe he could have been accepted back, he never tried so of course he will not be welcomed back. Redemption needs to be earned not coached towards.
Also only kespa (a private company that does whatever they wished) banned Life forever, Blizzard never gave a statement so there isn't even anything to really discuss here. He wasn't even banned, big deal if he made a come back right now that he cant play in kespas stuff xD
Considering blizzard stripped his world championship title, i think it's pretty clear where they stand on life playing again
They have a pretty clear stance indeed. It goes approximately like this: Life? Who?
Hey in other news opisska, want a sig bet on whether a foriegner wins WESG? (I think the odds are firmly in Korean favor, but I can throw you a bone here, and there's still a reasonable chance that Scarlett, Neeb, or Serral take the whole thing down, plus you need a chance to regain your honor anyways).
Honestly, I don't really follow it, so it won't be that much fun. Let's cross forces at some less obscure tourney in the future
On March 14 2019 02:20 IshinShishi wrote: I strongly believe that the people that think that there's a chance this isn't a match fix just don't understand the evidence we already have, they either haven't seen it or can't grasp it at all.
My thoughts too. A real head-scratcher.. I mean, How naive/clueless can you be exactly..?
Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
No it's not, this makes no sense. People will be lured into matchfixing no matter how getting caught is punished. Just make getting caught very expensive and you'll get the same level of disincentive without the loss of talent.
You know why Life got busted? Because prosecutors followed the money and discovered that he was paid for what he did. Boom, there's your permaban, your court sentence, your career and legacy disgraced.
Losing isn't a crime. Being an idiot isn't a crime. Playing hungover isn't a crime. And TL is not a court of law. The movement of betting lines is a far more solid source of suspicion than anything Macsed did in-game. And yes, I agree that it looks suspicious. Suspicion != proof.
The truth will not be found by poring over replays and flaming people online. A proper investigation deals in facts, not hysteria, and is conducted by professionals, not forum vigilantes. Macsed is already under scrutiny, so the only thing we as fans need to do is wait for the answers.
Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's innocent. Jumping to either of those conclusions based on the limited and circumstantial evidence available, is simply idiotic (and incidentally, a great example of why legal systems, standards of proof, and courts of law exist in the first place).
The fact is very suspicious and the evidence seems strongly against MacSed; in any of case, you cannot say that there was matchfixing before further investigations will it. We are not here to judge in advance.
1.) macsed cannon rushes for some reason, despite being vs a player he will NEVER lose to if he plays straightforward and carefully
2.) he sends his probe, and then immediately reveals his second probe (basically announcing that he is doing a cannon rush)
3.) doesn't cancel the cannon (i think?) that for some reason he builds in a spot for the zealot to safely kill
4.) he then loses both probes somehow, despite that being literally the most important thing to not have happen when executing a cannon rush, and incredibly easy to avoid
5.) despite knowing his opponent is proxy gating he doesn't wall in. he literally has extra money sitting there he's doing nothing with it but despite that he only builds one gateway that doesn't wall in above his ramp
6.) he then builds a CANNON in the face of the zealot, obviously knowing it will just die
7.) doesn't even try to re-wall when the zealot gets in.
8.) 10 seconds later or so tries to build another CANNON which will obviously just die again
9.) the best part in the entire game is when he fights the zealots with the probes. "hey look at my awesome probe micro, gonna get these zealots, I'm not gonna give up yet!". "keep fighting! I can still come back". "Oh wait the zealots are almost dead i guess i will just randomly run around with my probes instead of killing them"
On March 14 2019 06:37 DSh1 wrote: That being said, I am still of the opinion that match fixing should be legalized. Although it is not how players should behave.
???????????
Unless you mean it should be "taken into consideration by the legal system" aka the police should look into it?
Yeah I didn't get that either. Competitive sports/games operate under the assumption that people try their hardest to win. Anything that alters that in any way makes it pointless.
For what I believe, playing like an idiot and losing a game, or even throwing a game is not a crime, or at least, it cannot be called "match fixing". It is hard to legally to prove intent from replay alone. What is crime is receiving money or some other benefits for losing. Any investigation would follow the money first.
Honestly speaking, there is nothing wrong with a player throwing a game by themselves. That's fine. That's their decision. The problem comes when they did so because of match fixing for their own of for the benefit of organised crime. I cannot say whether macsed is involved in matchfixing, though it certainly looks that way. teamliquid forum is not a court of law, so I don't know why people are asking we act as if we are help to the same standards as if we are national police. What boggles my mind are those who say that he did not deliberately lose the game.
He most certainly did choose to lose the game, beyond all reasonable doubt. There's is simply no way to describe the terrible decisions in the game and at the end, he chose not to kill the two surrounded zealots that both only needed 1 more second to die. Not even a bronze level player would do that, if only because it takes a conscious decision and physical actions to pull the probes away before they can kill the zealots.
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
No it's not, this makes no sense. People will be lured into matchfixing no matter how getting caught is punished. Just make getting caught very expensive and you'll get the same level of disincentive without the loss of talent.
Its not about sending a message "don't do this because then you get punished" its about the integrity of the sport. The reason matchfixing is a huge deal in sports is because it literally kills the sport. The reason professional sports exist is because there is viewers, viewers pay money, buy merchandise and because there are viewers teams get sponsors and companies gets money through commercials.
Viewers are there because they are excited about the competitive side, teams and companies spends tons of money getting viewers invested. Invested in the outcome of matches, invested in teams, players or whatever. This is why world cups are so huge, because cheering for your own country is an effective way to get viewers invested. Now listen closely, it doesn't matter if its true or not, if viewers believe that the outcome of matches are determined from the start and that it isn't a real competitive game they will not watch the games. That is how professional sport scenes die, no viewers, no money, no money no players, no players no sport.
Letting a player continue to play that we as a viewers know have matchfixed will effect the whole scene and the viewers. When that player loses it will always be there in our minds, the voice that says "he matchfixed once, nothing to say he wouldn't do it again". As we all know if you are suspicious a players is trying to lose you will find mistakes, because you cant help looking for them. This will ruin the whole experience for viewers and the sport will suffer for it.
On March 14 2019 06:14 pvsnp wrote: You know why Life got busted? Because prosecutors followed the money and discovered that he was paid for what he did. Boom, there's your permaban, your court sentence, your career and legacy disgraced.
Losing isn't a crime. Being an idiot isn't a crime. Playing hungover isn't a crime. And TL is not a court of law. The movement of betting lines is a far more solid source of suspicion than anything Macsed did in-game. And yes, I agree that it looks suspicious. Suspicion != proof.
The truth will not be found by poring over replays and flaming people online. A proper investigation deals in facts, not hysteria, and is conducted by professionals, not forum vigilantes. Macsed is already under scrutiny, so the only thing we as fans need to do is wait for the answers.
Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's innocent. Jumping to either of those conclusions based on the limited and circumstantial evidence available, is simply idiotic (and incidentally, a great example of why legal systems, standards of proof, and courts of law exist in the first place).
You are naive, you believe there will always be a money trail to follow. There are ways to circumvent that, what has gotten people convicted is when the actual people behind the matchfixing gets caught. The chat history and stuff like that. If you are careful there are ways to make all of that evidence pretty much impossible to find.
So here we are, with obvious matchfixers and a problem in our sport but we can't prove anything. We don't even know is chinese police is even looking into it but even if they did chances are it wouldn't be traceable.
So we have a few choices, accept the matchfixing "because we cant really prove it", tell everyone their innocent unless convicted and we will end up with all of us "knowing" matchfixing is rampant but that nothing is being done to stop it. I mean come on even you posters who dont want to clearly say that he is guilty thinks he is guilty. Its just obvious. Lets say we see the same thing happen every 5th or so game in the future, what to do. They are matchfixing but we cant "prove" it, we will lose interest in the tournaments, we will slowly but surely stop following as closely as we were and the scene will slowly "die".
Our other choice is to hope organizers take this seriously and that we do to, this is matchfixing and we should absolutely not accept it. It would be the nothing but bad for the scene we all love.
On March 14 2019 07:04 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Honestly speaking, there is nothing wrong with a player throwing a game by themselves. That's fine. That's their decision. The problem comes when they did so because of match fixing for their own of for the benefit of organised crime. I cannot say whether macsed is involved in matchfixing, though it certainly looks that way. teamliquid forum is not a court of law, so I don't know why people are asking we act as if we are help to the same standards as if we are national police. What boggles my mind are those who say that he did not deliberately lose the game.
He most certainly did choose to lose the game, beyond all reasonable doubt. There's is simply no way to describe the terrible decision in the game and at the end, he chose not to kill the two surrounded zealots that both only needed 1 more second to die. Not even a bronze level player would do that, if only because it takes a conscious decision and physical actions to pull the probes away before they can kill the zealots.
I agree but the thing is there is no reason to throw the game other than matchfixing. He'd be better to destroy the guy real quick and have more time to prepare for his next matches instead of wasting his time throwing a game. There's no incentive to throw a game other than a matchfix.
On March 14 2019 06:14 pvsnp wrote: You know why Life got busted? Because prosecutors followed the money and discovered that he was paid for what he did. Boom, there's your permaban, your court sentence, your career and legacy disgraced.
Losing isn't a crime. Being an idiot isn't a crime. Playing hungover isn't a crime. And TL is not a court of law. The movement of betting lines is a far more solid source of suspicion than anything Macsed did in-game. And yes, I agree that it looks suspicious. Suspicion != proof.
The truth will not be found by poring over replays and flaming people online. A proper investigation deals in facts, not hysteria, and is conducted by professionals, not forum vigilantes. Macsed is already under scrutiny, so the only thing we as fans need to do is wait for the answers.
Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's innocent. Jumping to either of those conclusions based on the limited and circumstantial evidence available, is simply idiotic (and incidentally, a great example of why legal systems, standards of proof, and courts of law exist in the first place).
You are naive, you believe there will always be a money trail to follow. There are ways to circumvent that, what has gotten people convicted is when the actual people behind the matchfixing gets caught. The chat history and stuff like that. If you are careful there are ways to make all of that evidence pretty much impossible to find.
So here we are, with obvious matchfixers and a problem in our sport but we can't prove anything. We don't even know is chinese police is even looking into it but even if they did chances are it wouldn't be traceable.
So we have a few choices, accept the matchfixing "because we cant really prove it", tell everyone their innocent unless convicted and we will end up with all of us "knowing" matchfixing is rampant but that nothing is being done to stop it. I mean come on even you posters who dont want to clearly say that he is guilty thinks he is guilty. Its just obvious. Lets say we see the same thing happen every 5th or so game in the future, what to do. They are matchfixing but we cant "prove" it, we will lose interest in the tournaments, we will slowly but surely stop following as closely as we were and the scene will slowly "die".
Our other choice is to hope organizers take this seriously and that we do to, this is matchfixing and we should absolutely not accept it. It would be the nothing but bad for the scene we all love.
When was the last time a "known" matchfixer, which is to say somebody forum vigilantes wanted to crucify, was allowed to go free?
Because MKP was years ago, and if one internet-convicted "guilty" guy going free every few years is the cost of protecting innocents, I think that's a pretty good trade. I'm not seeing this catastrophe that you claim will happen if we don't lynch Macsed.
You're right, by the way, that I personally think he's guilty - based on what we know, with the caveat that we don't know everything. But it's not "innocent until proven guilty, except when I disagree." If you only stand for principles when they're convenient, then you don't have any.
1.) macsed cannon rushes for some reason, despite being vs a player he will NEVER lose to if he plays straightforward and carefully
2.) he sends his probe, and then immediately reveals his second probe (basically announcing that he is doing a cannon rush)
3.) doesn't cancel the cannon (i think?) that for some reason he builds in a spot for the zealot to safely kill
4.) he then loses both probes somehow, despite that being literally the most important thing to not have happen when executing a cannon rush, and incredibly easy to avoid
5.) despite knowing his opponent is proxy gating he doesn't wall in. he literally has extra money sitting there he's doing nothing with it but despite that he only builds one gateway that doesn't wall in above his ramp
6.) he then builds a CANNON in the face of the zealot, obviously knowing it will just die
7.) doesn't even try to re-wall when the zealot gets in.
8.) 10 seconds later or so tries to build another CANNON which will obviously just die again
9.) the best part in the entire game is when he fights the zealots with the probes. "hey look at my awesome probe micro, gonna get these zealots, I'm not gonna give up yet!". "keep fighting! I can still come back". "Oh wait the zealots are almost dead i guess i will just randomly run around with my probes instead of killing them"
w t f . . . people actually believe that this was a legit loss? wow, just wow.. There is no way that someone watches this and thinks it was a normal game and a legit loss..
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
If you don't have the evidence then we consider people innocent. That's how these things work in civilized countries, because incarcerating innocent people is one of the evilest things you can do to a person. So if the officials stay out of this it probably means nothing happened and we can't do anything about it as we cannot get the evidence.
I have to seriously question your understanding of this game if you really think there isn't a huge amount of evidence going against Macsed here. It's about showing beyond reasonable doubt, not about providing undeniable proof.
And trust me I have nothing against Macsed I'm just going after the truth here. I actually enjoy his playstyle when he attempts to win.
So what are your answers to these questions?
1) Why did he allow those 2 zealots to escape? He had a full surround with his probes attacking them and he suddenly pulls them away for no reason when the zealots are almost completely dead, letting them survive.
My answer: He purposely actively micro'd so as not to kill the opponent's zealots.
2) Why is he cannon rushing a guy who he would beat 100% of the time if he used a decent build?
My answer: He needed a cheesy strat like a cannon rush so it doesn't look too suspicious losing to such an inferior opponent because cheese is gimmicky.
3) Why is he giving away his cannon rush instantly by showing the probe?
My answer: He wanted the opponent to know.
4) Why did he attempt to complete his wall with a gateway plus a cannon when he could've easily completed the wall with just a gateway? Doing gateway + cannon allowed the opponent to super easily break the wall by targeting the cannon whereas a gateway would've kept him out for a little while.
My answer: This just absolutely doesn't happen unless he wants the zealot to get into his base and doesn't want it to look too suspicious that he's allowing it to happen
5) Why was he literally just moving his 2 probes back and forth next to his constructing cannon as the zealot was killing his cannon? No cancel because he was too busy uselessly moving his probes side to side for no reason at all.
My answer: He wanted his own cannon rush to fail
6) Why did the betting line change massively in a way that could only happen if someone was betting big money on Seventy to win a game? What kind of bettor would be so confident in a super inferior player to take a map?
My answer: Matchfixing
So as you can see everything perfectly lines up in favor of the matchfixing theory. I doubt you can come up with any convincing reasoning to explain all these things away.
On March 14 2019 06:14 pvsnp wrote: You know why Life got busted? Because prosecutors followed the money and discovered that he was paid for what he did. Boom, there's your permaban, your court sentence, your career and legacy disgraced.
Losing isn't a crime. Being an idiot isn't a crime. Playing hungover isn't a crime. And TL is not a court of law. The movement of betting lines is a far more solid source of suspicion than anything Macsed did in-game. And yes, I agree that it looks suspicious. Suspicion != proof.
The truth will not be found by poring over replays and flaming people online. A proper investigation deals in facts, not hysteria, and is conducted by professionals, not forum vigilantes. Macsed is already under scrutiny, so the only thing we as fans need to do is wait for the answers.
Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's innocent. Jumping to either of those conclusions based on the limited and circumstantial evidence available, is simply idiotic (and incidentally, a great example of why legal systems, standards of proof, and courts of law exist in the first place).
You are naive, you believe there will always be a money trail to follow. There are ways to circumvent that, what has gotten people convicted is when the actual people behind the matchfixing gets caught. The chat history and stuff like that. If you are careful there are ways to make all of that evidence pretty much impossible to find.
So here we are, with obvious matchfixers and a problem in our sport but we can't prove anything. We don't even know is chinese police is even looking into it but even if they did chances are it wouldn't be traceable.
So we have a few choices, accept the matchfixing "because we cant really prove it", tell everyone their innocent unless convicted and we will end up with all of us "knowing" matchfixing is rampant but that nothing is being done to stop it. I mean come on even you posters who dont want to clearly say that he is guilty thinks he is guilty. Its just obvious. Lets say we see the same thing happen every 5th or so game in the future, what to do. They are matchfixing but we cant "prove" it, we will lose interest in the tournaments, we will slowly but surely stop following as closely as we were and the scene will slowly "die".
Our other choice is to hope organizers take this seriously and that we do to, this is matchfixing and we should absolutely not accept it. It would be the nothing but bad for the scene we all love.
When was the last time a "known" matchfixer, which is to say somebody forum vigilantes wanted to crucify, was allowed to go free?
Because MKP was years ago, and if one internet-convicted "guilty" guy going free every few years is the cost of protecting innocents, I think that's a pretty good trade. I'm not seeing this catastrophe that you claim will happen if we don't lynch Macsed.
First thing, I'm not saying anyone should lynch Macsed, do you know what that word even means? I'm saying he matchfixed and our reaction should not be "so what we can't prove it and as long as we can't prove it its fine".
You have a very interesting take on this, so you believe we should regard Macsed as innocent because it was a long time ago since someone matchfixed this blatantly? So it matters how often it happens if we should react or not? If this happens again in the playoffs of WESG should X players also be free to go because its not many enough for you to take it seriously? How about if it happens at GSL best of 16 next? Is that were we draw the line and even though we let Macsed go and player X we will judge players Y harder because its becoming more common?
Doesn't sound very consistent to me, I believe everyone should get the same judgement, they will from me anyway. If its equally blatant of course, which it is here. This might be the first time in years or it is only the tip of the iceberg either way we can't know and should therefore take it seriously.
I don't really see the catastrophe I myself painted but it is a slippery slope, free one and you might as well free them all. Especially when it is this incredibly obvious, we might look back at this as the start of something really really bad just like the first game with San vs Dark all those years ago. I really hope that wont happen but I don't want to look back and think if only we as a community had reacted instead of sweeping it under the rug, this is something that effects the scene to a very high degree.
I'm platinum and I cannon-rush better than that. That was absurd. Like, even ignoring all the fishyness in MacSed's lack of defense at home, MacSed successfully got a lowground cannon up, and got the probes onto the highground. That should be, if not game-over, then at the very least a very difficult spot for Seventy to be in. MacSed had TWO probes that he lost to a single zealot. One of which somehow ATTACKED THE ZEALOT.
When was the last time you saw someone a-move their probes while cannon rushing? I don't even think silver leaguers do that.
I suppose we're meant to believe that the one probe attacking the zealot was to distract the zealot so that it wouldn't go after the other probe... Because that makes sense. Instead of, you know, getting in range of the lowground cannon... Which is cannon-rushing 101. I'm not one to call someone guilty right away (I reserved judgement about that last chinese matchfixing thing that happened during the ladder race for WCS) but this is just ridiculous.
Edit: It's both probes. He actually attacks with both probes, even though the zealot backs off because it's taking cannon-fire. Lol this is so blatant.
On March 14 2019 07:34 TheDougler wrote: I'm platinum and I cannon-rush better than that. That was absurd. Like, even ignoring all the fishyness in MacSed's lack of defense at home, MacSed successfully got a lowground cannon up, and got the probes onto the highground. That should be, if not game-over, then at the very least a very difficult spot for Seventy to be in. MacSed had TWO probes that he lost to a single zealot. One of which somehow ATTACKED THE ZEALOT.
When was the last time you saw someone a-move their probes while cannon rushing? I don't even think silver leaguers do that.
I suppose we're meant to believe that the one probe attacking the zealot was to distract the zealot so that it wouldn't go after the other probe... Because that makes sense. Instead of, you know, getting in range of the lowground cannon... Which is cannon-rushing 101. I'm not one to call someone guilty right away (I reserved judgement about that last chinese matchfixing thing that happened during the ladder race for WCS) but this is just ridiculous.
Ding ding ding!
It's absolutely incredible to me that some people here can't see this.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
If you don't have the evidence then we consider people innocent. That's how these things work in civilized countries, because incarcerating innocent people is one of the evilest things you can do to a person. So if the officials stay out of this it probably means nothing happened and we can't do anything about it as we cannot get the evidence.
I have to seriously question your understanding of this game if you really think there isn't a huge amount of evidence going against Macsed here. It's about showing beyond reasonable doubt, not about providing undeniable proof.
And trust me I have nothing against Macsed I'm just going after the truth here. I actually enjoy his playstyle when he attempts to win.
So what are your answers to these questions?
1) Why did he allow those 2 zealots to escape? He had a full surround with his probes attacking them and he suddenly pulls them away for no reason when the zealots are almost completely dead, letting them survive.
My answer: He purposely actively micro'd so as not to kill the opponent's zealots.
2) Why is he cannon rushing a guy who he would beat 100% of the time if he used a decent build?
My answer: He needed a cheesy strat like a cannon rush so it doesn't look too suspicious losing to such an inferior opponent because cheese is gimmicky.
3) Why is he giving away his cannon rush instantly by showing the probe?
My answer: He wanted the opponent to know.
4) Why did he attempt to complete his wall with a gateway plus a cannon when he could've easily completed the wall with just a gateway? Doing gateway + cannon allowed the opponent to super easily break the wall by targeting the cannon whereas a gateway would've kept him out for a little while.
My answer: This just absolutely doesn't happen unless he wants the zealot to get into his base and doesn't want it to look too suspicious that he's allowing it to happen
5) Why was he literally just moving his 2 probes back and forth next to his constructing cannon as the zealot was killing his cannon? No cancel because he was too busy uselessly moving his probes side to side for no reason at all.
My answer: He wanted his own cannon rush to fail
6) Why did the betting line change massively in a way that could only happen if someone was betting big money on Seventy to win a game? What kind of bettor would be so confident in a super inferior player to take a map?
My answer: Matchfixing
So as you can see everything perfectly lines up in favor of the matchfixing theory. I doubt you can come up with any convincing reasoning to explain all these things away.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
On March 13 2019 23:27 deacon.frost wrote: [quote]
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
If you don't have the evidence then we consider people innocent. That's how these things work in civilized countries, because incarcerating innocent people is one of the evilest things you can do to a person. So if the officials stay out of this it probably means nothing happened and we can't do anything about it as we cannot get the evidence.
I have to seriously question your understanding of this game if you really think there isn't a huge amount of evidence going against Macsed here. It's about showing beyond reasonable doubt, not about providing undeniable proof.
And trust me I have nothing against Macsed I'm just going after the truth here. I actually enjoy his playstyle when he attempts to win.
So what are your answers to these questions?
1) Why did he allow those 2 zealots to escape? He had a full surround with his probes attacking them and he suddenly pulls them away for no reason when the zealots are almost completely dead, letting them survive.
My answer: He purposely actively micro'd so as not to kill the opponent's zealots.
2) Why is he cannon rushing a guy who he would beat 100% of the time if he used a decent build?
My answer: He needed a cheesy strat like a cannon rush so it doesn't look too suspicious losing to such an inferior opponent because cheese is gimmicky.
3) Why is he giving away his cannon rush instantly by showing the probe?
My answer: He wanted the opponent to know.
4) Why did he attempt to complete his wall with a gateway plus a cannon when he could've easily completed the wall with just a gateway? Doing gateway + cannon allowed the opponent to super easily break the wall by targeting the cannon whereas a gateway would've kept him out for a little while.
My answer: This just absolutely doesn't happen unless he wants the zealot to get into his base and doesn't want it to look too suspicious that he's allowing it to happen
5) Why was he literally just moving his 2 probes back and forth next to his constructing cannon as the zealot was killing his cannon? No cancel because he was too busy uselessly moving his probes side to side for no reason at all.
My answer: He wanted his own cannon rush to fail
6) Why did the betting line change massively in a way that could only happen if someone was betting big money on Seventy to win a game? What kind of bettor would be so confident in a super inferior player to take a map?
My answer: Matchfixing
So as you can see everything perfectly lines up in favor of the matchfixing theory. I doubt you can come up with any convincing reasoning to explain all these things away.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Correlation does not imply causation.
He's not saying it's the only possible explanation. He's saying it's the most likely explanation. That's a big difference.
Here's the craziest thing for me, it's related to his 5th point, but it's a separate point. His 5th point is about the cannon, this point is about the two probes:
2:19 on the game clock - Forward cannon dies 2:21 - probe 1 takes one hit, then the zealot starts attacking the highground cannon. 2:22 - lowground cannon shoots at zealot, zealot retreats 2:23 - the two probes a-move at the zealot, who is now out of range of the lowground cannon.
For what reason would those two probes ever a-move a zealot? I mean, he didn't even lose them by building a new cannon and letting them get killed. He suicides them into the zealot.
Edit: You just added a line about proof. The guy already said he's not trying to provide proof, he's trying to provide evidence and I think he's done that.
On March 14 2019 07:34 TheDougler wrote: I'm platinum and I cannon-rush better than that. That was absurd. Like, even ignoring all the fishyness in MacSed's lack of defense at home, MacSed successfully got a lowground cannon up, and got the probes onto the highground. That should be, if not game-over, then at the very least a very difficult spot for Seventy to be in. MacSed had TWO probes that he lost to a single zealot. One of which somehow ATTACKED THE ZEALOT.
When was the last time you saw someone a-move their probes while cannon rushing? I don't even think silver leaguers do that.
I suppose we're meant to believe that the one probe attacking the zealot was to distract the zealot so that it wouldn't go after the other probe... Because that makes sense. Instead of, you know, getting in range of the lowground cannon... Which is cannon-rushing 101. I'm not one to call someone guilty right away (I reserved judgement about that last chinese matchfixing thing that happened during the ladder race for WCS) but this is just ridiculous.
Ding ding ding!
It's absolutely incredible to me that some people here can't see this.
It's really bad, but it's not bad enough to never happen. If Macsed killed his own units, didn't build anything or just did absolutly nothing it would be an evidence. Right now the game looks like it "may" have been fixed, but the game itself isn't evidence. It's easy to look at a game for an hour and point out every mistake and say it never happen, but terrible games does happen.
He would not be the first pro to have lost to a Diamond/Plat, looking around at the first round of onlines cup/small or for fun lans you will find a good chunk of them. If there is evidence to find it won't come from the game, but from the outside: the betting line eventual social network conversation between the two players or with the bitter, maybe actual conversation someone heard ect...
In any cases, we can't look at that game and get anything more than it look fishy, let's wait for anything else.
Uh yeah, that was pretty questionable to say the least. At 2 minutes Macsed had enough money to do a 3 pylon wall on the high ground and a cannon finished on the low ground and instead did a single pylon followed by two obviously out of range cannons, one which wasn't even covered by the low ground cannon and could be killed by a zealot. Even people in NA diamond can cannon rush better than that.
On March 14 2019 06:14 pvsnp wrote: You know why Life got busted? Because prosecutors followed the money and discovered that he was paid for what he did. Boom, there's your permaban, your court sentence, your career and legacy disgraced.
Losing isn't a crime. Being an idiot isn't a crime. Playing hungover isn't a crime. And TL is not a court of law. The movement of betting lines is a far more solid source of suspicion than anything Macsed did in-game. And yes, I agree that it looks suspicious. Suspicion != proof.
The truth will not be found by poring over replays and flaming people online. A proper investigation deals in facts, not hysteria, and is conducted by professionals, not forum vigilantes. Macsed is already under scrutiny, so the only thing we as fans need to do is wait for the answers.
Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's innocent. Jumping to either of those conclusions based on the limited and circumstantial evidence available, is simply idiotic (and incidentally, a great example of why legal systems, standards of proof, and courts of law exist in the first place).
You are naive, you believe there will always be a money trail to follow. There are ways to circumvent that, what has gotten people convicted is when the actual people behind the matchfixing gets caught. The chat history and stuff like that. If you are careful there are ways to make all of that evidence pretty much impossible to find.
So here we are, with obvious matchfixers and a problem in our sport but we can't prove anything. We don't even know is chinese police is even looking into it but even if they did chances are it wouldn't be traceable.
So we have a few choices, accept the matchfixing "because we cant really prove it", tell everyone their innocent unless convicted and we will end up with all of us "knowing" matchfixing is rampant but that nothing is being done to stop it. I mean come on even you posters who dont want to clearly say that he is guilty thinks he is guilty. Its just obvious. Lets say we see the same thing happen every 5th or so game in the future, what to do. They are matchfixing but we cant "prove" it, we will lose interest in the tournaments, we will slowly but surely stop following as closely as we were and the scene will slowly "die".
Our other choice is to hope organizers take this seriously and that we do to, this is matchfixing and we should absolutely not accept it. It would be the nothing but bad for the scene we all love.
When was the last time a "known" matchfixer, which is to say somebody forum vigilantes wanted to crucify, was allowed to go free?
Because MKP was years ago, and if one internet-convicted "guilty" guy going free every few years is the cost of protecting innocents, I think that's a pretty good trade. I'm not seeing this catastrophe that you claim will happen if we don't lynch Macsed.
First thing, I'm not saying anyone should lynch Macsed, do you know what that word even means? I'm saying he matchfixed and our reaction should not be "so what we can't prove it and as long as we can't prove it its fine".
You have a very interesting take on this, so you believe we should regard Macsed as innocent because it was a long time ago since someone matchfixed this blatantly? So it matters how often it happens if we should react or not? If this happens again in the playoffs of WESG should X players also be free to go because its not many enough for you to take it seriously? How about if it happens at GSL best of 16 next? Is that were we draw the line and even though we let Macsed go and player X we will judge players Y harder because its becoming more common?
Doesn't sound very consistent to me, I believe everyone should get the same judgement, they will from me anyway. If its equally blatant of course, which it is here. This might be the first time in years or it is only the tip of the iceberg either way we can't know and should therefore take it seriously.
I don't really see the catastrophe I myself painted but it is a slippery slope, free one and you might as well free them all. Especially when it is this incredibly obvious, we might look back at this as the start of something really really bad just like the first game with San vs Dark all those years ago. I really hope that wont happen but I don't want to look back and think if only we as a community had reacted instead of sweeping it under the rug, this is something that effects the scene to a very high degree.
Presumption of innocence is one of the key principles of many legal systems, and naturally should not be compromised. However, there are cases and extenuating circumstances under which key legal principles can be suspended.
To use habeas corpus in the US as an example, it's a right of every person to know why they are legally detained. However, this principle can and has been suspended as per the Constitution "when in rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it." (U.S. CONST. art. I, § 9, cl. 2.)
I believe we should regard Macsed as innocent until he's proven guilty, since as far as I know, there is no impending catastrophe that would justify revoking his right to that presumption.
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
No it's not, this makes no sense. People will be lured into matchfixing no matter how getting caught is punished. Just make getting caught very expensive and you'll get the same level of disincentive without the loss of talent.
Its not about sending a message "don't do this because then you get punished" its about the integrity of the sport. The reason matchfixing is a huge deal in sports is because it literally kills the sport. The reason professional sports exist is because there is viewers, viewers pay money, buy merchandise and because there are viewers teams get sponsors and companies gets money through commercials.
Viewers are there because they are excited about the competitive side, teams and companies spends tons of money getting viewers invested. Invested in the outcome of matches, invested in teams, players or whatever. This is why world cups are so huge, because cheering for your own country is an effective way to get viewers invested. Now listen closely, it doesn't matter if its true or not, if viewers believe that the outcome of matches are determined from the start and that it isn't a real competitive game they will not watch the games. That is how professional sport scenes die, no viewers, no money, no money no players, no players no sport.
Letting a player continue to play that we as a viewers know have matchfixed will effect the whole scene and the viewers. When that player loses it will always be there in our minds, the voice that says "he matchfixed once, nothing to say he wouldn't do it again". As we all know if you are suspicious a players is trying to lose you will find mistakes, because you cant help looking for them. This will ruin the whole experience for viewers and the sport will suffer for it.
It won't affect "the viewers". It will affect you, and the people who agree with you, because you don't like it. You're using a rhetorical trick to pretend that your opinion represents the whole scene when it doesn't because it gives credence to your argument.
When I watch Starcraft I'd like to see people trying to win. When people match fix, they aren't trying to win, they rob me of my viewing pleasure, so I'm going to require some punishment. Once they are punished, I don't need them to never play again for "the integrity of the game", because that's actually some immaterial concept that only has the relevance that you give to it. If they play again and they try to win again, I can still take pleasure in watching them. There is absolutely no reason to assume that a player who match fixed in the past is more likely to match fix again after he's been caught.
On March 14 2019 07:34 TheDougler wrote: I'm platinum and I cannon-rush better than that. That was absurd. Like, even ignoring all the fishyness in MacSed's lack of defense at home, MacSed successfully got a lowground cannon up, and got the probes onto the highground. That should be, if not game-over, then at the very least a very difficult spot for Seventy to be in. MacSed had TWO probes that he lost to a single zealot. One of which somehow ATTACKED THE ZEALOT.
When was the last time you saw someone a-move their probes while cannon rushing? I don't even think silver leaguers do that.
I suppose we're meant to believe that the one probe attacking the zealot was to distract the zealot so that it wouldn't go after the other probe... Because that makes sense. Instead of, you know, getting in range of the lowground cannon... Which is cannon-rushing 101. I'm not one to call someone guilty right away (I reserved judgement about that last chinese matchfixing thing that happened during the ladder race for WCS) but this is just ridiculous.
Ding ding ding!
It's absolutely incredible to me that some people here can't see this.
It's really bad, but it's not bad enough to never happen. If Macsed killed his own units, didn't build anything or just did absolutly nothing it would be an evidence. Right now the game looks like it "may" have been fixed, but the game itself isn't evidence. It's easy to look at a game for an hour and point out every mistake and say it never happen, but terrible games does happen.
He would not be the first pro to have lost to a Diamond/Plat, looking around at the first round of onlines cup/small or for fun lans you will find a good chunk of them. If there is evidence to find it won't come from the game, but from the outside: the betting line eventual social network conversation between the two players or with the bitter, maybe actual conversation someone heard ect...
In any cases, we can't look at that game and get anything more than it look fishy, let's wait for anything else.
The accumulation of all these things in the same very short game? Yes it's actually more than bad enough to never happen. Trust me. The highest I've been is high masters, I probably only have low masters mechanics now due to inactivity but I would never in a million years make all the ridiculous mistakes Macsed did in this game if I was playing in a tournament.
Also allow me to repost a nice gem that I found on reddit. As a very successful bettor myself I agree with what he said...
"As a random dude who bets often on sports (live in Vegas), I definitely wouldn't expect to see a swing like that. If this was a UFC fight and the odds swung like that, or an NFL game with that line movement, it would be crazy to see that. You might see swings like that spread in a Marquee matchup where a whale places a giant bet, but never on a minor and not attention grabbing match. Those movements are highly questionable. When there's big bets that cause really weird swing like this, casinos usually temporarily close bets to investigate. However I doubt this type of work could be afforded for sc2 esport betting."
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
On March 13 2019 23:27 deacon.frost wrote: [quote]
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
I would like to emphasize how utterly ignorant it is to say we have no solid evidence. You're one of the people I mentioned who will only believe it once you have pure undeniable proof handed to you on a silver platter (which is nearly impossible for us to get). You won't accept any amount of evidence no matter how unlikely it could be that he's innocent.
I found so much evidence of matchfixing in this game that I don't think there can even be any reasonable doubt.
User was warned for this post
Considering how serious of an accusation this is, we should be waiting until we get undeniable proof.
I think you're most likely never getting undeniable proof even if it was matchfixing. I don't think this is the right approach.
You might want to check mr. Savior and mr. Life cases, certain former Prime team case and probably plenty of others.
Ah yes catching a couple guys surely means there weren't way more who went undiscovered.
If you don't have the evidence then we consider people innocent. That's how these things work in civilized countries, because incarcerating innocent people is one of the evilest things you can do to a person. So if the officials stay out of this it probably means nothing happened and we can't do anything about it as we cannot get the evidence.
I have to seriously question your understanding of this game if you really think there isn't a huge amount of evidence going against Macsed here. It's about showing beyond reasonable doubt, not about providing undeniable proof.
And trust me I have nothing against Macsed I'm just going after the truth here. I actually enjoy his playstyle when he attempts to win.
So what are your answers to these questions?
1) Why did he allow those 2 zealots to escape? He had a full surround with his probes attacking them and he suddenly pulls them away for no reason when the zealots are almost completely dead, letting them survive.
My answer: He purposely actively micro'd so as not to kill the opponent's zealots.
2) Why is he cannon rushing a guy who he would beat 100% of the time if he used a decent build?
My answer: He needed a cheesy strat like a cannon rush so it doesn't look too suspicious losing to such an inferior opponent because cheese is gimmicky.
3) Why is he giving away his cannon rush instantly by showing the probe?
My answer: He wanted the opponent to know.
4) Why did he attempt to complete his wall with a gateway plus a cannon when he could've easily completed the wall with just a gateway? Doing gateway + cannon allowed the opponent to super easily break the wall by targeting the cannon whereas a gateway would've kept him out for a little while.
My answer: This just absolutely doesn't happen unless he wants the zealot to get into his base and doesn't want it to look too suspicious that he's allowing it to happen
5) Why was he literally just moving his 2 probes back and forth next to his constructing cannon as the zealot was killing his cannon? No cancel because he was too busy uselessly moving his probes side to side for no reason at all.
My answer: He wanted his own cannon rush to fail
6) Why did the betting line change massively in a way that could only happen if someone was betting big money on Seventy to win a game? What kind of bettor would be so confident in a super inferior player to take a map?
My answer: Matchfixing
So as you can see everything perfectly lines up in favor of the matchfixing theory. I doubt you can come up with any convincing reasoning to explain all these things away.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It is certain that he chose to lose the game. I don't really see how this can be disputed unless you never seen or played SC2 before. If there wasn't any suspicious gambling going on, we can only say that he chose to lose. Was the reason matchfixing? That is not something any of us can prove or disprove. It is the most reasonable explanation, when taken in with the suspicious gambling line change aspect.
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
And said friend decides to drop so much money gambling that his Chinese friend will lose, that it shifts the gambling odds of the match. Also said Chinese gamer chose to lose. Yep, that's matchfixing alright.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
Yeah no. Intent is really hard to prove, with good reason, unless you can read minds. This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Running away probes 1 second before killing both zealots and then refusing to kill either zealots when there were opportunities to do so safely. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
On March 14 2019 06:14 pvsnp wrote: You know why Life got busted? Because prosecutors followed the money and discovered that he was paid for what he did. Boom, there's your permaban, your court sentence, your career and legacy disgraced.
Losing isn't a crime. Being an idiot isn't a crime. Playing hungover isn't a crime. And TL is not a court of law. The movement of betting lines is a far more solid source of suspicion than anything Macsed did in-game. And yes, I agree that it looks suspicious. Suspicion != proof.
The truth will not be found by poring over replays and flaming people online. A proper investigation deals in facts, not hysteria, and is conducted by professionals, not forum vigilantes. Macsed is already under scrutiny, so the only thing we as fans need to do is wait for the answers.
Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's innocent. Jumping to either of those conclusions based on the limited and circumstantial evidence available, is simply idiotic (and incidentally, a great example of why legal systems, standards of proof, and courts of law exist in the first place).
You are naive, you believe there will always be a money trail to follow. There are ways to circumvent that, what has gotten people convicted is when the actual people behind the matchfixing gets caught. The chat history and stuff like that. If you are careful there are ways to make all of that evidence pretty much impossible to find.
So here we are, with obvious matchfixers and a problem in our sport but we can't prove anything. We don't even know is chinese police is even looking into it but even if they did chances are it wouldn't be traceable.
So we have a few choices, accept the matchfixing "because we cant really prove it", tell everyone their innocent unless convicted and we will end up with all of us "knowing" matchfixing is rampant but that nothing is being done to stop it. I mean come on even you posters who dont want to clearly say that he is guilty thinks he is guilty. Its just obvious. Lets say we see the same thing happen every 5th or so game in the future, what to do. They are matchfixing but we cant "prove" it, we will lose interest in the tournaments, we will slowly but surely stop following as closely as we were and the scene will slowly "die".
Our other choice is to hope organizers take this seriously and that we do to, this is matchfixing and we should absolutely not accept it. It would be the nothing but bad for the scene we all love.
When was the last time a "known" matchfixer, which is to say somebody forum vigilantes wanted to crucify, was allowed to go free?
Because MKP was years ago, and if one internet-convicted "guilty" guy going free every few years is the cost of protecting innocents, I think that's a pretty good trade. I'm not seeing this catastrophe that you claim will happen if we don't lynch Macsed.
First thing, I'm not saying anyone should lynch Macsed, do you know what that word even means? I'm saying he matchfixed and our reaction should not be "so what we can't prove it and as long as we can't prove it its fine".
You have a very interesting take on this, so you believe we should regard Macsed as innocent because it was a long time ago since someone matchfixed this blatantly? So it matters how often it happens if we should react or not? If this happens again in the playoffs of WESG should X players also be free to go because its not many enough for you to take it seriously? How about if it happens at GSL best of 16 next? Is that were we draw the line and even though we let Macsed go and player X we will judge players Y harder because its becoming more common?
Doesn't sound very consistent to me, I believe everyone should get the same judgement, they will from me anyway. If its equally blatant of course, which it is here. This might be the first time in years or it is only the tip of the iceberg either way we can't know and should therefore take it seriously.
I don't really see the catastrophe I myself painted but it is a slippery slope, free one and you might as well free them all. Especially when it is this incredibly obvious, we might look back at this as the start of something really really bad just like the first game with San vs Dark all those years ago. I really hope that wont happen but I don't want to look back and think if only we as a community had reacted instead of sweeping it under the rug, this is something that effects the scene to a very high degree.
Presumption of innocence is one of the key principles of many legal systems, and naturally should not be compromised. However, there are cases and extenuating circumstances under which key legal principles can be suspended.
To use habeas corpus in the US as an example, it's a right of every person to know why they are legally detained. However, this principle can and has been suspended as per the Constitution "when in rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it." (U.S. CONST. art. I, § 9, cl. 2.)
I believe we should regard Macsed as innocent until he's proven guilty, since as far as I know, there is no impending catastrophe that would justify revoking his right to that presumption.
Erm what are you even talking about, the legal system should not be compromised? First you think I want Macsed lynched (killed?) and now you presume I want him what? Sent to jail, fined?
There is no law that says that organisations like IEM, WESG or for that matter Blizzard themselves are not allowed to ban players without a decision in a court of law. What nonsense are you talking about? Private companies are allowed to do as they will, if I go to my local grocery store and disturb the order they are allowed to throw me out and prevent me from entering their store again. They don't need me to have done something unlawful or get a decision from a judge. That is not how reality works.
He matchfixed, there is enough proof to make put it beyond reasonable doubt. Its up the community and event organizers if they will allow him in their tournament. It doesn't really matter what you or me thinks what matters is what the people in charge thinks and how they think it will reflect on their events if they allow him.
On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof).
I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague.
I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching.
When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison.
A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better.
An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more.
No it's not, this makes no sense. People will be lured into matchfixing no matter how getting caught is punished. Just make getting caught very expensive and you'll get the same level of disincentive without the loss of talent.
Its not about sending a message "don't do this because then you get punished" its about the integrity of the sport. The reason matchfixing is a huge deal in sports is because it literally kills the sport. The reason professional sports exist is because there is viewers, viewers pay money, buy merchandise and because there are viewers teams get sponsors and companies gets money through commercials.
Viewers are there because they are excited about the competitive side, teams and companies spends tons of money getting viewers invested. Invested in the outcome of matches, invested in teams, players or whatever. This is why world cups are so huge, because cheering for your own country is an effective way to get viewers invested. Now listen closely, it doesn't matter if its true or not, if viewers believe that the outcome of matches are determined from the start and that it isn't a real competitive game they will not watch the games. That is how professional sport scenes die, no viewers, no money, no money no players, no players no sport.
Letting a player continue to play that we as a viewers know have matchfixed will effect the whole scene and the viewers. When that player loses it will always be there in our minds, the voice that says "he matchfixed once, nothing to say he wouldn't do it again". As we all know if you are suspicious a players is trying to lose you will find mistakes, because you cant help looking for them. This will ruin the whole experience for viewers and the sport will suffer for it.
It won't affect "the viewers". It will affect you, and the people who agree with you, because you don't like it. You're using a rhetorical trick to pretend that your opinion represents the whole scene when it doesn't because it gives credence to your argument.
When I watch Starcraft I'd like to see people trying to win. When people match fix, they aren't trying to win, they rob me of my viewing pleasure, so I'm going to require some punishment. Once they are punished, I don't need them to never play again for "the integrity of the game", because that's actually some immaterial concept that only has the relevance that you give to it. If they play again and they try to win again, I can still take pleasure in watching them. There is absolutely no reason to assume that a player who match fixed in the past is more likely to match fix again after he's been caught.
Maybe that's how you work, its not how the majority of viewers work. Who cares about what you or I think just look at the past, how did the broodwar matchfix scandal go down? The scene continued to thrive as before? No it went downhill from there. It is know how open and known matchfixing effect sports, its not about what either of us thinks.
You can claim I use "tricks" as much as you want, I can't change history and history speaks for itself
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Running away probes 1 second before killing both zealots and then refusing to kill either zealots when there were opportunities to do so safely. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
So just to be clear, you've never in your life done something in a game you were fucking around in and retrospectively realized you made far more grave an error than intended? Like I play MOBAs with my bros all the time and the amount of times we think we're too far ahead to lose and we find ourselves doing random stupid shit that ends up costing us is more than I can count. Its just as easy to assume he purposefully killed those Zealots as it is to say he just didn't think he needed them and could win without them, only to realize that was one fuck up too many that even a diamond league player could punish.
You need hard. evidence. HARD evidence.
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
Yes, as people in this thread have said "follow the money". I'm not sure about Chinese laws, but I expect an audit of MacSed's finances at least (can't just end now, they could have stipulated "X days later we'll pay you).
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
Changing betting lines are LITERALLY money moved that's the algorhythm for changing betting lines. If you bet enough, the betting lines will change to the degree that 4000mmr player will appear like he has 50%+ chance to win a map of off a 6000MMR player Stop writing silly things.
Hypothetical motives? Hypothetical motive is something that doesn't make sense, but you're trying to find a scenario in which it does make sense. Nothing about making money is a 'hypothetical motive'.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
Do you realize that if we always required "smoking gun" evidence instead of beyond a reasonable doubt proof then a HUGE amount of crimes would never get punished, right? You seem to live in this fairy tale land that has a perfect justice system that just now and then lets a criminal slip by, haha, such naivety.
Senator: "How do you sustain a business model in which users don't pay for your service?" Zuckerberg: "Senator, we run ads." Senator: "Yes, but how do you make money?"
I bet the people wanting hard evidence are too dense to understand what was presented and explained about betting in the OP, just like the US Senate was too tech illiterate to discuss anything with Zuckerberg.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
You just went from Correlation does not imply causation to wanting an actual legal system function. What is this? I even wrote that debating legal systems are pointless. Can you at least agree that Macsed set out to lose? I can't see how anybody who watched the vods can come to the conclusion he did not.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Running away probes 1 second before killing both zealots and then refusing to kill either zealots when there were opportunities to do so safely. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
So just to be clear, you've never in your life done something in a game you were fucking around in and retrospectively realized you made far more grave an error than intended? Like I play MOBAs with my bros all the time and the amount of times we think we're too far ahead to lose and we find ourselves doing random stupid shit that ends up costing us is more than I can count. Its just as easy to assume he purposefully killed those Zealots as it is to say he just didn't think he needed them and could win without them, only to realize that was one fuck up too many that even a diamond league player could punish.
You need hard. evidence. HARD evidence.
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
I don't need hard evidence to say anything, just as you are just as powerless to convict macsed as I am, and you are just as free to type total nonsensical stories. TL forums is not a court of law. If you cannot be satisfied with someone obviously setting out to lose, and you are not satisfied with the large amounts of money betted that a pro will ever lose to a diamond player, and you are not satisifed that Macsed performed actions that deliberately set himself up to lose, then there is nothing that will ever satisfy you.
Its just as easy to assume he purposefully killed those Zealots as it is to say he just didn't think he needed them and could win without them, only to realize that was one fuck up too many that even a diamond league player could punish.
Dude, do you even play starcraft? This is something even bronze players don't or can't do. To let 2 zealots live when they would had died in less than 1 second. Just leaving the probes on attack would had killed both zealots faster, it;s actually quite impressive skill he had shown to make sure that neither zealots would die. To mineral walk at unneccesary points, and decide to micro badly, to mineral walk and target at the wrong times, when the best course of action would just be to not take any actions at all. To manage to micro and time it just right so you deal just the right amount of damage on both till they are both one second from dying. And then to continue to let at least one of them live to the end of the game whilst running the probes in a circle, because the diamond player didn't keep his zealots together.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Can anyone make it explicit exactly how much is needed for a shift from 1.34 to 2.06 like this? It seems absurd to me a couple thousand is needed given that this is just a WESG match.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Well he was so bad, that I think it would be worse if he was not throwing.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Clearly almost everyone in this thread overestimate MacSed lol.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Clearly almost everyone in this thread overestimate MacSed lol.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Clearly almost everyone in this thread overestimate MacSed lol.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Well he was so bad, that I think it would be worse if he was not throwing.
Indeed. Everybody laughed at him on losing that game.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Lol interesting, from what I heard the chinese scene has improved with a lot of players that do well. They distinguish themselves well in WCS too but sadly there must be a misunderstanding.
If Macsed is the best china has to send to WESG (he took 2 place in the regional qualifier so obviously he is) but he is basically at the level of a diamond 2 on the european server. I guess the strongest professional chinese players are what, high master at best?
So your argument is basically that the chinese players are so shitty that this is the best they got, mid diamond level? Sounds like excuses to me but what do I know
On March 14 2019 06:14 pvsnp wrote: You know why Life got busted? Because prosecutors followed the money and discovered that he was paid for what he did. Boom, there's your permaban, your court sentence, your career and legacy disgraced.
Losing isn't a crime. Being an idiot isn't a crime. Playing hungover isn't a crime. And TL is not a court of law. The movement of betting lines is a far more solid source of suspicion than anything Macsed did in-game. And yes, I agree that it looks suspicious. Suspicion != proof.
The truth will not be found by poring over replays and flaming people online. A proper investigation deals in facts, not hysteria, and is conducted by professionals, not forum vigilantes. Macsed is already under scrutiny, so the only thing we as fans need to do is wait for the answers.
Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's innocent. Jumping to either of those conclusions based on the limited and circumstantial evidence available, is simply idiotic (and incidentally, a great example of why legal systems, standards of proof, and courts of law exist in the first place).
You are naive, you believe there will always be a money trail to follow. There are ways to circumvent that, what has gotten people convicted is when the actual people behind the matchfixing gets caught. The chat history and stuff like that. If you are careful there are ways to make all of that evidence pretty much impossible to find.
So here we are, with obvious matchfixers and a problem in our sport but we can't prove anything. We don't even know is chinese police is even looking into it but even if they did chances are it wouldn't be traceable.
So we have a few choices, accept the matchfixing "because we cant really prove it", tell everyone their innocent unless convicted and we will end up with all of us "knowing" matchfixing is rampant but that nothing is being done to stop it. I mean come on even you posters who dont want to clearly say that he is guilty thinks he is guilty. Its just obvious. Lets say we see the same thing happen every 5th or so game in the future, what to do. They are matchfixing but we cant "prove" it, we will lose interest in the tournaments, we will slowly but surely stop following as closely as we were and the scene will slowly "die".
Our other choice is to hope organizers take this seriously and that we do to, this is matchfixing and we should absolutely not accept it. It would be the nothing but bad for the scene we all love.
When was the last time a "known" matchfixer, which is to say somebody forum vigilantes wanted to crucify, was allowed to go free?
Because MKP was years ago, and if one internet-convicted "guilty" guy going free every few years is the cost of protecting innocents, I think that's a pretty good trade. I'm not seeing this catastrophe that you claim will happen if we don't lynch Macsed.
First thing, I'm not saying anyone should lynch Macsed, do you know what that word even means? I'm saying he matchfixed and our reaction should not be "so what we can't prove it and as long as we can't prove it its fine".
You have a very interesting take on this, so you believe we should regard Macsed as innocent because it was a long time ago since someone matchfixed this blatantly? So it matters how often it happens if we should react or not? If this happens again in the playoffs of WESG should X players also be free to go because its not many enough for you to take it seriously? How about if it happens at GSL best of 16 next? Is that were we draw the line and even though we let Macsed go and player X we will judge players Y harder because its becoming more common?
Doesn't sound very consistent to me, I believe everyone should get the same judgement, they will from me anyway. If its equally blatant of course, which it is here. This might be the first time in years or it is only the tip of the iceberg either way we can't know and should therefore take it seriously.
I don't really see the catastrophe I myself painted but it is a slippery slope, free one and you might as well free them all. Especially when it is this incredibly obvious, we might look back at this as the start of something really really bad just like the first game with San vs Dark all those years ago. I really hope that wont happen but I don't want to look back and think if only we as a community had reacted instead of sweeping it under the rug, this is something that effects the scene to a very high degree.
Presumption of innocence is one of the key principles of many legal systems, and naturally should not be compromised. However, there are cases and extenuating circumstances under which key legal principles can be suspended.
To use habeas corpus in the US as an example, it's a right of every person to know why they are legally detained. However, this principle can and has been suspended as per the Constitution "when in rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it." (U.S. CONST. art. I, § 9, cl. 2.)
I believe we should regard Macsed as innocent until he's proven guilty, since as far as I know, there is no impending catastrophe that would justify revoking his right to that presumption.
Erm what are you even talking about, the legal system should not be compromised? First you think I want Macsed lynched (killed?) and now you presume I want him what? Sent to jail, fined?
There is no law that says that organisations like IEM, WESG or for that matter Blizzard themselves are not allowed to ban players without a decision in a court of law. What nonsense are you talking about? Private companies are allowed to do as they will, if I go to my local grocery store and disturb the order they are allowed to throw me out and prevent me from entering their store again. They don't need me to have done something unlawful or get a decision from a judge. That is not how reality works.
He matchfixed, there is enough proof to make put it beyond reasonable doubt. Its up the community and event organizers if they will allow him in their tournament. It doesn't really matter what you or me thinks what matters is what the people in charge thinks and how they think it will reflect on their events if they allow him.
IIRC, matchfixing is illegal in China as well as Korea (which is why Life went to actual court and spent time in actual jail), due to the inherent connections with illegal gambling. So Macsed could potentially be looking at legal action, and that's why I was talking about the legal context.
But if you want to shift the subject to corporate action like Blizzard and Alibaba, then you might want to think twice about opening that can of worms. As you said, corporations are free to act independently of the relevant legal considerations.
What would you say if Blizzard decided that they were making too much money from China and it wasn't worth pursuing this case due to potential lost revenue?
On March 14 2019 08:20 chipmonklord17 wrote: You need hard. evidence. HARD evidence.
Betting line changed significantly. There's your evidence of money pouring on a bet for an unlikely outcome. Soon after, this outcome comes to fruition in a ridiculous game.
EDIT: In situations like this, players should be autobanned from tournaments for a few years at least. No extra investigation, simply ban the favorite who lost if the betting line changed drastically.
1/1000 times you may ban the unlucky innocent person, but it will clean the scene of matchfixing effectively.
On March 14 2019 09:03 Dangermousecatdog wrote: If it was just that he lost the game deliberately, no-one would had cared.
Unfortunately, it seemed that somebody decided to bet that he would lose on just that specific match, and at unusually large amount of money at that.
Quite the strange coincidence that.
Well, it is just a SC2 game, not a football game. So a shift from 1.34 to 2.06 may only take a couple of hundred dollars I guess. Probably not an unusually large amount of money.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
Do you realize that if we always required "smoking gun" evidence instead of beyond a reasonable doubt proof then a HUGE amount of crimes would never get punished, right? You seem to live in this fairy tale land that has a perfect justice system that just now and then lets a criminal slip by, haha, such naivety.
Senator: "How do you sustain a business model in which users don't pay for your service?" Zuckerberg: "Senator, we run ads." Senator: "Yes, but how do you make money?"
I bet the people wanting hard evidence are too dense to understand what was presented and explained about betting in the OP, just like the US Senate was too tech illiterate to discuss anything with Zuckerberg.
Do you realize that guilty people go free every day because it's far less important to punish the guilty than it is to protect the innocent?
"It is better 100 guilty persons should escape than that one innocent person should suffer."
- Benjamin Franklin
Such irony to hear you talking of fairylands. You think only the guilty ever get punished? How naive. Why do you think laws have presumption of innocence? Just to make you angry on internet forums?
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
Changing betting lines are LITERALLY money moved that's the algorhythm for changing betting lines. If you bet enough, the betting lines will change to the degree that 4000mmr player will appear like he has 50%+ chance to win a map of off a 6000MMR player Stop writing silly things.
Hypothetical motives? Hypothetical motive is something that doesn't make sense, but you're trying to find a scenario in which it does make sense. Nothing about making money is a 'hypothetical motive'.
Of course money got moved. Suspicious betting is suspicious, but it is not immediate proof that Macsed fixed a game for profit. The question is whether the money moved into Macsed's account as a result of matchfixing.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
In the U.S., convictions based on circumstantial evidence happen all the time. In some instances, circumstantial evidence is better than certain types of direct evidence as it is significantly less fallible. (e.g. cell phone records placing someone in an area can be better than eye witness testimony)
If someone can be convicted of murder based solely upon circumstantial evidence, someone can and should be banned from an esport based on nothing but circumstantial evidence. If the betting pattern described is accurate, MacSed needs to be banned because there is no other reasonable explanation for what happened.
On March 14 2019 06:14 pvsnp wrote: You know why Life got busted? Because prosecutors followed the money and discovered that he was paid for what he did. Boom, there's your permaban, your court sentence, your career and legacy disgraced.
Losing isn't a crime. Being an idiot isn't a crime. Playing hungover isn't a crime. And TL is not a court of law. The movement of betting lines is a far more solid source of suspicion than anything Macsed did in-game. And yes, I agree that it looks suspicious. Suspicion != proof.
The truth will not be found by poring over replays and flaming people online. A proper investigation deals in facts, not hysteria, and is conducted by professionals, not forum vigilantes. Macsed is already under scrutiny, so the only thing we as fans need to do is wait for the answers.
Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's innocent. Jumping to either of those conclusions based on the limited and circumstantial evidence available, is simply idiotic (and incidentally, a great example of why legal systems, standards of proof, and courts of law exist in the first place).
You are naive, you believe there will always be a money trail to follow. There are ways to circumvent that, what has gotten people convicted is when the actual people behind the matchfixing gets caught. The chat history and stuff like that. If you are careful there are ways to make all of that evidence pretty much impossible to find.
So here we are, with obvious matchfixers and a problem in our sport but we can't prove anything. We don't even know is chinese police is even looking into it but even if they did chances are it wouldn't be traceable.
So we have a few choices, accept the matchfixing "because we cant really prove it", tell everyone their innocent unless convicted and we will end up with all of us "knowing" matchfixing is rampant but that nothing is being done to stop it. I mean come on even you posters who dont want to clearly say that he is guilty thinks he is guilty. Its just obvious. Lets say we see the same thing happen every 5th or so game in the future, what to do. They are matchfixing but we cant "prove" it, we will lose interest in the tournaments, we will slowly but surely stop following as closely as we were and the scene will slowly "die".
Our other choice is to hope organizers take this seriously and that we do to, this is matchfixing and we should absolutely not accept it. It would be the nothing but bad for the scene we all love.
When was the last time a "known" matchfixer, which is to say somebody forum vigilantes wanted to crucify, was allowed to go free?
Because MKP was years ago, and if one internet-convicted "guilty" guy going free every few years is the cost of protecting innocents, I think that's a pretty good trade. I'm not seeing this catastrophe that you claim will happen if we don't lynch Macsed.
First thing, I'm not saying anyone should lynch Macsed, do you know what that word even means? I'm saying he matchfixed and our reaction should not be "so what we can't prove it and as long as we can't prove it its fine".
You have a very interesting take on this, so you believe we should regard Macsed as innocent because it was a long time ago since someone matchfixed this blatantly? So it matters how often it happens if we should react or not? If this happens again in the playoffs of WESG should X players also be free to go because its not many enough for you to take it seriously? How about if it happens at GSL best of 16 next? Is that were we draw the line and even though we let Macsed go and player X we will judge players Y harder because its becoming more common?
Doesn't sound very consistent to me, I believe everyone should get the same judgement, they will from me anyway. If its equally blatant of course, which it is here. This might be the first time in years or it is only the tip of the iceberg either way we can't know and should therefore take it seriously.
I don't really see the catastrophe I myself painted but it is a slippery slope, free one and you might as well free them all. Especially when it is this incredibly obvious, we might look back at this as the start of something really really bad just like the first game with San vs Dark all those years ago. I really hope that wont happen but I don't want to look back and think if only we as a community had reacted instead of sweeping it under the rug, this is something that effects the scene to a very high degree.
Presumption of innocence is one of the key principles of many legal systems, and naturally should not be compromised. However, there are cases and extenuating circumstances under which key legal principles can be suspended.
To use habeas corpus in the US as an example, it's a right of every person to know why they are legally detained. However, this principle can and has been suspended as per the Constitution "when in rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it." (U.S. CONST. art. I, § 9, cl. 2.)
I believe we should regard Macsed as innocent until he's proven guilty, since as far as I know, there is no impending catastrophe that would justify revoking his right to that presumption.
Erm what are you even talking about, the legal system should not be compromised? First you think I want Macsed lynched (killed?) and now you presume I want him what? Sent to jail, fined?
There is no law that says that organisations like IEM, WESG or for that matter Blizzard themselves are not allowed to ban players without a decision in a court of law. What nonsense are you talking about? Private companies are allowed to do as they will, if I go to my local grocery store and disturb the order they are allowed to throw me out and prevent me from entering their store again. They don't need me to have done something unlawful or get a decision from a judge. That is not how reality works.
He matchfixed, there is enough proof to make put it beyond reasonable doubt. Its up the community and event organizers if they will allow him in their tournament. It doesn't really matter what you or me thinks what matters is what the people in charge thinks and how they think it will reflect on their events if they allow him.
IIRC, matchfixing is illegal in China as well as Korea (which is why Life went to actual court and spent time in actual jail), due to the inherent connections with illegal gambling. So Macsed could potentially be looking at legal action, and that's why I was talking about the legal context.
But if you want to shift the subject to corporate action like Blizzard and Alibaba, then you might want to think twice about opening that can of worms. As you said, corporations are free to act independently of the relevant legal considerations.
What would you say if Blizzard decided that they were making too much money from China and it wasn't worth pursuing this case due to potential lost revenue?
Its not a can of worms =P Its what we got as a community, I would be fine with that decision from Blizzard. A bit disappointing but if that is their stance its understandable.
Macsed should still be banned from GSL, IEM, WESG and all the online cups. Sure if Blizzards doesn't want to make a move he can participate in wcs but that doesn't stop other organizations from taking a stronger stance.
The proof is there, but how sloppy has Macsed been, if he's clever there will be no chatlogs or money trails to him and in that case there is a low chance of him actually getting jail or fines. There are a lot of ways to make sure there are no "hard" evidence as you would say and that doesn't mean he isn't guilty beyond reasonable doubt.
Edit: Money in bank account lol, what if he had that money transfered to his/sister/whatever and they took it out in cash and gave to him. Its untraceable, he can matchfix forever, however obvious and he will be free forever.
On March 14 2019 08:20 chipmonklord17 wrote: You need hard. evidence. HARD evidence.
Betting line changed significantly. There's your evidence of money pouring on a bet for an unlikely outcome. Soon after, this outcome comes to fruition in a ridiculous game.
EDIT: In situations like this, players should be autobanned from tournaments for a few years at least. No extra investigation, simply ban the favorite who lost if the betting line changed drastically.
1/1000 times you may ban the unlucky innocent person, but it will clean the scene of matchfixing effectively.
That's hard evidence that someone(s) bet a large sum of money on Macsed to go 2-1. That is in no way hard evidence that Macsed has any relation to it.
On March 14 2019 08:20 chipmonklord17 wrote:
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
YOU can believe he did it all you want. I can believe he did it all I want. A tournament can't fucking ban him because uppity forum posters believe he match fixed. End of fucking story. No hard evidence no ban, regardless of what you or I think
On March 14 2019 08:20 chipmonklord17 wrote: You need hard. evidence. HARD evidence.
Betting line changed significantly. There's your evidence of money pouring on a bet for an unlikely outcome. Soon after, this outcome comes to fruition in a ridiculous game.
EDIT: In situations like this, players should be autobanned from tournaments for a few years at least. No extra investigation, simply ban the favorite who lost if the betting line changed drastically.
1/1000 times you may ban the unlucky innocent person, but it will clean the scene of matchfixing effectively.
That's hard evidence that someone(s) bet a large sum of money on Macsed to go 2-1. That is in no way hard evidence that Macsed has any relation to it.
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
YOU can believe he did it all you want. I can believe he did it all I want. A tournament can't fucking ban him because uppity forum posters believe he match fixed. End of fucking story. No hard evidence no ban, regardless of what you or I think
Tournaments and Blizzard can do whatever they want.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
Do you realize that if we always required "smoking gun" evidence instead of beyond a reasonable doubt proof then a HUGE amount of crimes would never get punished, right? You seem to live in this fairy tale land that has a perfect justice system that just now and then lets a criminal slip by, haha, such naivety.
Senator: "How do you sustain a business model in which users don't pay for your service?" Zuckerberg: "Senator, we run ads." Senator: "Yes, but how do you make money?"
I bet the people wanting hard evidence are too dense to understand what was presented and explained about betting in the OP, just like the US Senate was too tech illiterate to discuss anything with Zuckerberg.
Do you realize that guilty people go free every day because it's far less important to punish the guilty than it is to protect the innocent?
"It is better 100 guilty persons should escape than that one innocent person should suffer."
- Benjamin Franklin
Such irony to hear you talking of fairylands. You think only the guilty ever get punished? How naive. Why do you think laws have presumption of innocence? Just to make you angry on internet forums?
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
Changing betting lines are LITERALLY money moved that's the algorhythm for changing betting lines. If you bet enough, the betting lines will change to the degree that 4000mmr player will appear like he has 50%+ chance to win a map of off a 6000MMR player Stop writing silly things.
Hypothetical motives? Hypothetical motive is something that doesn't make sense, but you're trying to find a scenario in which it does make sense. Nothing about making money is a 'hypothetical motive'.
Of course money got moved. Suspicious betting is suspicious, but it is not immediate proof that Macsed fixed a game for profit. The question is whether the money moved into Macsed's account as a result of matchfixing.
Yep, and for common sense it's enough proof. Money moving illogically, illogical game happening afterwords. The only logic is that those 2 illogical things are about the same starcraft match.
For you, who seems to live in a world of concepts, it's not enough.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Lol interesting, from what I heard the chinese scene has improved with a lot of players that do well. They distinguish themselves well in WCS too but sadly there must be a misunderstanding.
If Macsed is the best china has to send to WESG (he took 2 place in the regional qualifier so obviously he is) but he is basically at the level of a diamond 2 on the european server. I guess the strongest professional chinese players are what, high master at best?
So your argument is basically that the chinese players are so shitty that this is the best they got, mid diamond level? Sounds like excuses to me but what do I know
In fact, yes. SC2 in China is struggling with fresh bloods. TIME is the only one playing world class games. iAsonu is retiring. Toodming and MacSed are probably 30 years old already.
Of course MacSed is just above KR 6000, which is the level most chinese pro players at. He should not to lose to a mid diamond player, and that made everybody ROFL. But he does not need that small amount of money, and he is not practicing hard as I said above.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Lol interesting, from what I heard the chinese scene has improved with a lot of players that do well. They distinguish themselves well in WCS too but sadly there must be a misunderstanding.
If Macsed is the best china has to send to WESG (he took 2 place in the regional qualifier so obviously he is) but he is basically at the level of a diamond 2 on the european server. I guess the strongest professional chinese players are what, high master at best?
So your argument is basically that the chinese players are so shitty that this is the best they got, mid diamond level? Sounds like excuses to me but what do I know
In fact, yes. SC2 in China is struggling with fresh bloods. TIME is the only one playing world class games. iAsonu is retiring. Toodming and MacSed are probably 30 years old already.
Of course MacSed is just above KR 6000, which is the level most chinese pro players at. He should not to lose to a mid diamond player, and that made everybody ROFL. But he does not need that small amount of money, and he is not practicing hard as I said above.
How do you know what amount he may have won? Maybe it's about a few thousand €.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Lol interesting, from what I heard the chinese scene has improved with a lot of players that do well. They distinguish themselves well in WCS too but sadly there must be a misunderstanding.
If Macsed is the best china has to send to WESG (he took 2 place in the regional qualifier so obviously he is) but he is basically at the level of a diamond 2 on the european server. I guess the strongest professional chinese players are what, high master at best?
So your argument is basically that the chinese players are so shitty that this is the best they got, mid diamond level? Sounds like excuses to me but what do I know
In fact, yes. SC2 in China is struggling with fresh bloods. TIME is the only one playing world class games. iAsonu is retiring. Toodming and MacSed are probably 30 years old already.
Of course MacSed is just above KR 6000, which is the level most chinese pro players at. He should not to lose to a mid diamond player, and that made everybody ROFL. But he does not need that small amount of money, and he is not practicing hard as I said above.
Martha freaking Stewart committed insider trading to save $50k at a time when she was worth approximately $1 billion. People commit crimes all the time when they have money because you can never have too much money.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Lol interesting, from what I heard the chinese scene has improved with a lot of players that do well. They distinguish themselves well in WCS too but sadly there must be a misunderstanding.
If Macsed is the best china has to send to WESG (he took 2 place in the regional qualifier so obviously he is) but he is basically at the level of a diamond 2 on the european server. I guess the strongest professional chinese players are what, high master at best?
So your argument is basically that the chinese players are so shitty that this is the best they got, mid diamond level? Sounds like excuses to me but what do I know
In fact, yes. SC2 in China is struggling with fresh bloods. TIME is the only one playing world class games. iAsonu is retiring. Toodming and MacSed are probably 30 years old already.
Of course MacSed is just above KR 6000, which is the level most chinese pro players at. He should not to lose to a mid diamond player, and that made everybody ROFL. But he does not need that small amount of money, and he is not practicing hard as I said above.
Martha freaking Stewart committed insider trading to save $50k at a time when she was worth approximately $1 billion. People commit crimes all the time when they have money because you can never have too much money.
$50K is a large amount no matter how much you have.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Lol interesting, from what I heard the chinese scene has improved with a lot of players that do well. They distinguish themselves well in WCS too but sadly there must be a misunderstanding.
If Macsed is the best china has to send to WESG (he took 2 place in the regional qualifier so obviously he is) but he is basically at the level of a diamond 2 on the european server. I guess the strongest professional chinese players are what, high master at best?
So your argument is basically that the chinese players are so shitty that this is the best they got, mid diamond level? Sounds like excuses to me but what do I know
In fact, yes. SC2 in China is struggling with fresh bloods. TIME is the only one playing world class games. iAsonu is retiring. Toodming and MacSed are probably 30 years old already.
Of course MacSed is just above KR 6000, which is the level most chinese pro players at. He should not to lose to a mid diamond player, and that made everybody ROFL. But he does not need that small amount of money, and he is not practicing hard as I said above.
All of the reasons you give above does not explain how someone knew that Macsed was going to lose before their games and bet a lot of money on it. It has be matchfixed there is no other credible explanation, seeing as how he plays to lose on purpose only makes it even more sure that he matchfixed.
Is he so bad he doesn't know how to wall against proxy gate zealot, I mean come on even gold levels can do that. Saying he is "rusty" is not enough, he had to have had an ongoing seizure or something for a GM level to get turned into that husk of a pro player.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Lol interesting, from what I heard the chinese scene has improved with a lot of players that do well. They distinguish themselves well in WCS too but sadly there must be a misunderstanding.
If Macsed is the best china has to send to WESG (he took 2 place in the regional qualifier so obviously he is) but he is basically at the level of a diamond 2 on the european server. I guess the strongest professional chinese players are what, high master at best?
So your argument is basically that the chinese players are so shitty that this is the best they got, mid diamond level? Sounds like excuses to me but what do I know
In fact, yes. SC2 in China is struggling with fresh bloods. TIME is the only one playing world class games. iAsonu is retiring. Toodming and MacSed are probably 30 years old already.
Of course MacSed is just above KR 6000, which is the level most chinese pro players at. He should not to lose to a mid diamond player, and that made everybody ROFL. But he does not need that small amount of money, and he is not practicing hard as I said above.
Martha freaking Stewart committed insider trading to save $50k at a time when she was worth approximately $1 billion. People commit crimes all the time when they have money because you can never have too much money.
$50K is a large amount no matter how much you have.
It was .00005% of her net worth. That's not worth committing a felony over. I'm pretty sure whatever MacSed was paid is a much higher percentage of his net worth.
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
You have hard evidence. His actions in game such as blatantly allowing the zealots to survive when they only had about 10 hp left, failing to complete his wall with a gateway instead of a gateway & cannon which would obviously allow the zealot to break through super quickly, fiddling around with his probes for literally no productive reason at all instead of cancelling his cannon, and many other examples. Then you have the hard evidence of the incredibly strange line move that can only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on his opponent.
I think the greatest failure in general of people who argue against jumping to the matchfixing conclusion is in realizing how devastatingly unlikely it is for a professional player to do all these things in the same game. And you can't tell me it's just a coincidence the very crazy line move happened at the same time. A line move like that is already 100% proof that someone placed big money on the opponent. No one would do that unless it was prearranged. All the individual things that have happened here are already unlikely by themselves. Place them all together into the same storm of events occurring over a single game and it's astronomically unlikely that they all happen together unless there is match fixing involved.
Just because you fail to interpret the evidence to the logical conclusion doesn't mean it isn't hard evidence. The only thing you'll accept is an undeniable photo of his transaction with the matchfixer or something like that.
If everyone thinks like you the matchfixers will just get away with it the vast majority of the time. Your way is not effective enough.
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
You have hard evidence. His actions in game such as blatantly allowing the zealots to survive when they only had about 10 hp left, failing to complete his wall with a gateway instead of a gateway & cannon which would obviously allow the zealot to break through super quickly, fiddling around with his probes for literally no productive reason at all instead of cancelling his cannon, and many other examples. Then you have the hard evidence of the incredibly strange line move that can only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on his opponent.
I think the greatest failure in general of people who argue against jumping to the matchfixing conclusion is in realizing how devastatingly unlikely it is for a professional player to do all these things in the same game. And you can't tell me it's just a coincidence the very crazy line move happened at the same time. A line move like that is already 100% proof that someone placed big money on the opponent. No one would do that unless it was prearranged. All the individual things that have happened here are already unlikely by themselves. Place them all together into the same storm of events occurring over a single game and it's astronomically unlikely that they all happen together unless there is match fixing involved.
Just because you fail to interpret the evidence to the logical conclusion doesn't mean it isn't hard evidence. The only thing you'll accept is an undeniable photo of his transaction with the matchfixer or something like that.
If everyone thinks like you the matchfixers will just get away with it the vast majority of the time. Your way is not effective enough.
Please allow yourself to look up the definition of hard evidence and get back to me. Because circumstantial/subjective evidence is not equivalent to hard evidence. And you need hard evidence to ban or punish players
On March 14 2019 10:06 RPR_Tempest wrote: If this is true I feel bad for Seventy. Dude must have been SO excited to take a game, but it was a lie.
Kinda like how it actually, provably happened to DRGLing
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
You have hard evidence. His actions in game such as blatantly allowing the zealots to survive when they only had about 10 hp left, failing to complete his wall with a gateway instead of a gateway & cannon which would obviously allow the zealot to break through super quickly, fiddling around with his probes for literally no productive reason at all instead of cancelling his cannon, and many other examples. Then you have the hard evidence of the incredibly strange line move that can only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on his opponent.
I think the greatest failure in general of people who argue against jumping to the matchfixing conclusion is in realizing how devastatingly unlikely it is for a professional player to do all these things in the same game. And you can't tell me it's just a coincidence the very crazy line move happened at the same time. A line move like that is already 100% proof that someone placed big money on the opponent. No one would do that unless it was prearranged. All the individual things that have happened here are already unlikely by themselves. Place them all together into the same storm of events occurring over a single game and it's astronomically unlikely that they all happen together unless there is match fixing involved.
Just because you fail to interpret the evidence to the logical conclusion doesn't mean it isn't hard evidence. The only thing you'll accept is an undeniable photo of his transaction with the matchfixer or something like that.
If everyone thinks like you the matchfixers will just get away with it the vast majority of the time. Your way is not effective enough.
Please allow yourself to look up the definition of hard evidence and get back to me. Because circumstantial/subjective evidence is not equivalent to hard evidence. And you need hard evidence to ban or punish players
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Lol interesting, from what I heard the chinese scene has improved with a lot of players that do well. They distinguish themselves well in WCS too but sadly there must be a misunderstanding.
If Macsed is the best china has to send to WESG (he took 2 place in the regional qualifier so obviously he is) but he is basically at the level of a diamond 2 on the european server. I guess the strongest professional chinese players are what, high master at best?
So your argument is basically that the chinese players are so shitty that this is the best they got, mid diamond level? Sounds like excuses to me but what do I know
In fact, yes. SC2 in China is struggling with fresh bloods. TIME is the only one playing world class games. iAsonu is retiring. Toodming and MacSed are probably 30 years old already.
Of course MacSed is just above KR 6000, which is the level most chinese pro players at. He should not to lose to a mid diamond player, and that made everybody ROFL. But he does not need that small amount of money, and he is not practicing hard as I said above.
Martha freaking Stewart committed insider trading to save $50k at a time when she was worth approximately $1 billion. People commit crimes all the time when they have money because you can never have too much money.
$50K is a large amount no matter how much you have.
It was .00005% of her net worth. That's not worth committing a felony over. I'm pretty sure whatever MacSed was paid is a much higher percentage of his net worth.
It is not a lot of money, man. So nobody here knows how much money was needed for a odds shift from 1.3 to 2, in a such unimportant SC2 game? U can make a wild guess, but my money will not be on a few thousand. So how much did u earn every month? 5K? Are u going to take the risk of ending ur career for 1K of profit? Stewart is an idiot. Are u? Is everyone else, like MacSed, an idiot? Do u know how much money "Life" earned for match fixing?
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
You have hard evidence. His actions in game such as blatantly allowing the zealots to survive when they only had about 10 hp left, failing to complete his wall with a gateway instead of a gateway & cannon which would obviously allow the zealot to break through super quickly, fiddling around with his probes for literally no productive reason at all instead of cancelling his cannon, and many other examples. Then you have the hard evidence of the incredibly strange line move that can only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on his opponent.
I think the greatest failure in general of people who argue against jumping to the matchfixing conclusion is in realizing how devastatingly unlikely it is for a professional player to do all these things in the same game. And you can't tell me it's just a coincidence the very crazy line move happened at the same time. A line move like that is already 100% proof that someone placed big money on the opponent. No one would do that unless it was prearranged. All the individual things that have happened here are already unlikely by themselves. Place them all together into the same storm of events occurring over a single game and it's astronomically unlikely that they all happen together unless there is match fixing involved.
Just because you fail to interpret the evidence to the logical conclusion doesn't mean it isn't hard evidence. The only thing you'll accept is an undeniable photo of his transaction with the matchfixer or something like that.
If everyone thinks like you the matchfixers will just get away with it the vast majority of the time. Your way is not effective enough.
Please allow yourself to look up the definition of hard evidence and get back to me. Because circumstantial/subjective evidence is not equivalent to hard evidence. And you need hard evidence to ban or punish players
On March 14 2019 10:06 RPR_Tempest wrote: If this is true I feel bad for Seventy. Dude must have been SO excited to take a game, but it was a lie.
Kinda like how it actually, provably happened to DRGLing
Crazy how the criminal justice system can convict based solely on circumstantial evidence but esports has to have a much higher standard.
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
You have hard evidence. His actions in game such as blatantly allowing the zealots to survive when they only had about 10 hp left, failing to complete his wall with a gateway instead of a gateway & cannon which would obviously allow the zealot to break through super quickly, fiddling around with his probes for literally no productive reason at all instead of cancelling his cannon, and many other examples. Then you have the hard evidence of the incredibly strange line move that can only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on his opponent.
I think the greatest failure in general of people who argue against jumping to the matchfixing conclusion is in realizing how devastatingly unlikely it is for a professional player to do all these things in the same game. And you can't tell me it's just a coincidence the very crazy line move happened at the same time. A line move like that is already 100% proof that someone placed big money on the opponent. No one would do that unless it was prearranged. All the individual things that have happened here are already unlikely by themselves. Place them all together into the same storm of events occurring over a single game and it's astronomically unlikely that they all happen together unless there is match fixing involved.
Just because you fail to interpret the evidence to the logical conclusion doesn't mean it isn't hard evidence. The only thing you'll accept is an undeniable photo of his transaction with the matchfixer or something like that.
If everyone thinks like you the matchfixers will just get away with it the vast majority of the time. Your way is not effective enough.
Please allow yourself to look up the definition of hard evidence and get back to me. Because circumstantial/subjective evidence is not equivalent to hard evidence. And you need hard evidence to ban or punish players
On March 14 2019 10:06 RPR_Tempest wrote: If this is true I feel bad for Seventy. Dude must have been SO excited to take a game, but it was a lie.
Kinda like how it actually, provably happened to DRGLing
Hard evidence: something that can be proven. All these things I mentioned can be proven. These are pieces of hard evidence.
Seems like what you're actually looking for is hard proof of matchfixing like I said which is something pretty unrealistic like a picture of Macsed's transaction with a matchfixing agent.
So once again, your way sucks. The vast majority of the time you aren't going to get your hard, perfectly conclusive proof of matchfixing even when the person is truly guilty.
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
You have hard evidence. His actions in game such as blatantly allowing the zealots to survive when they only had about 10 hp left, failing to complete his wall with a gateway instead of a gateway & cannon which would obviously allow the zealot to break through super quickly, fiddling around with his probes for literally no productive reason at all instead of cancelling his cannon, and many other examples. Then you have the hard evidence of the incredibly strange line move that can only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on his opponent.
I think the greatest failure in general of people who argue against jumping to the matchfixing conclusion is in realizing how devastatingly unlikely it is for a professional player to do all these things in the same game. And you can't tell me it's just a coincidence the very crazy line move happened at the same time. A line move like that is already 100% proof that someone placed big money on the opponent. No one would do that unless it was prearranged. All the individual things that have happened here are already unlikely by themselves. Place them all together into the same storm of events occurring over a single game and it's astronomically unlikely that they all happen together unless there is match fixing involved.
Just because you fail to interpret the evidence to the logical conclusion doesn't mean it isn't hard evidence. The only thing you'll accept is an undeniable photo of his transaction with the matchfixer or something like that.
If everyone thinks like you the matchfixers will just get away with it the vast majority of the time. Your way is not effective enough.
Please allow yourself to look up the definition of hard evidence and get back to me. Because circumstantial/subjective evidence is not equivalent to hard evidence. And you need hard evidence to ban or punish players
On March 14 2019 10:06 RPR_Tempest wrote: If this is true I feel bad for Seventy. Dude must have been SO excited to take a game, but it was a lie.
Kinda like how it actually, provably happened to DRGLing
Crazy how the criminal justice system can convict based solely on circumstantial evidence but esports has to have a much higher standard.
U are too naive to the criminal justice. LOL
what are you doing here mate. you r defending an obvious matchfixer with a TL account that was literally made today. smells funny.
Can I ask you to report this Reddit profile, since it's impersonating real Seventy. I know him, I've met him irl and I know him in SC2 for quite a while. Also since he's in China, he can't make Reddit profile anyway.
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Lol interesting, from what I heard the chinese scene has improved with a lot of players that do well. They distinguish themselves well in WCS too but sadly there must be a misunderstanding.
If Macsed is the best china has to send to WESG (he took 2 place in the regional qualifier so obviously he is) but he is basically at the level of a diamond 2 on the european server. I guess the strongest professional chinese players are what, high master at best?
So your argument is basically that the chinese players are so shitty that this is the best they got, mid diamond level? Sounds like excuses to me but what do I know
In fact, yes. SC2 in China is struggling with fresh bloods. TIME is the only one playing world class games. iAsonu is retiring. Toodming and MacSed are probably 30 years old already.
Of course MacSed is just above KR 6000, which is the level most chinese pro players at. He should not to lose to a mid diamond player, and that made everybody ROFL. But he does not need that small amount of money, and he is not practicing hard as I said above.
Martha freaking Stewart committed insider trading to save $50k at a time when she was worth approximately $1 billion. People commit crimes all the time when they have money because you can never have too much money.
$50K is a large amount no matter how much you have.
Don't you all know that Scboy "said calculation" in China? It is unlikely there will be any investigation or convincing result in the future. Stop talking about this shit or developing so-called "arguments" in vain and look forward to Serral v.s. Maru in the Final are the wisest thing to do lol
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
You have hard evidence. His actions in game such as blatantly allowing the zealots to survive when they only had about 10 hp left, failing to complete his wall with a gateway instead of a gateway & cannon which would obviously allow the zealot to break through super quickly, fiddling around with his probes for literally no productive reason at all instead of cancelling his cannon, and many other examples. Then you have the hard evidence of the incredibly strange line move that can only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on his opponent.
I think the greatest failure in general of people who argue against jumping to the matchfixing conclusion is in realizing how devastatingly unlikely it is for a professional player to do all these things in the same game. And you can't tell me it's just a coincidence the very crazy line move happened at the same time. A line move like that is already 100% proof that someone placed big money on the opponent. No one would do that unless it was prearranged. All the individual things that have happened here are already unlikely by themselves. Place them all together into the same storm of events occurring over a single game and it's astronomically unlikely that they all happen together unless there is match fixing involved.
Just because you fail to interpret the evidence to the logical conclusion doesn't mean it isn't hard evidence. The only thing you'll accept is an undeniable photo of his transaction with the matchfixer or something like that.
If everyone thinks like you the matchfixers will just get away with it the vast majority of the time. Your way is not effective enough.
Please allow yourself to look up the definition of hard evidence and get back to me. Because circumstantial/subjective evidence is not equivalent to hard evidence. And you need hard evidence to ban or punish players
On March 14 2019 10:06 RPR_Tempest wrote: If this is true I feel bad for Seventy. Dude must have been SO excited to take a game, but it was a lie.
Kinda like how it actually, provably happened to DRGLing
Hard evidence: something that can be proven. All these things I mentioned can be proven. These are pieces of hard evidence.
Seems like what you're actually looking for is hard proof of matchfixing like I said which is something pretty unrealistic like a picture of Macsed's transaction with a matchfixing agent.
So once again, your way sucks. The vast majority of the time you aren't going to get your hard, perfectly conclusive proof of matchfixing even when the person is truly guilty.
You can not prove something is blatant, you cannot prove something that you need to interpret. And its interesting that you call it "my way" and yet its literally the way all of SC esports has run ever nor have I actually shared my stance on whether I think its match fixing or not. No hard evidence, no ban. Its pretty simple
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
You have hard evidence. His actions in game such as blatantly allowing the zealots to survive when they only had about 10 hp left, failing to complete his wall with a gateway instead of a gateway & cannon which would obviously allow the zealot to break through super quickly, fiddling around with his probes for literally no productive reason at all instead of cancelling his cannon, and many other examples. Then you have the hard evidence of the incredibly strange line move that can only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on his opponent.
I think the greatest failure in general of people who argue against jumping to the matchfixing conclusion is in realizing how devastatingly unlikely it is for a professional player to do all these things in the same game. And you can't tell me it's just a coincidence the very crazy line move happened at the same time. A line move like that is already 100% proof that someone placed big money on the opponent. No one would do that unless it was prearranged. All the individual things that have happened here are already unlikely by themselves. Place them all together into the same storm of events occurring over a single game and it's astronomically unlikely that they all happen together unless there is match fixing involved.
Just because you fail to interpret the evidence to the logical conclusion doesn't mean it isn't hard evidence. The only thing you'll accept is an undeniable photo of his transaction with the matchfixer or something like that.
If everyone thinks like you the matchfixers will just get away with it the vast majority of the time. Your way is not effective enough.
Please allow yourself to look up the definition of hard evidence and get back to me. Because circumstantial/subjective evidence is not equivalent to hard evidence. And you need hard evidence to ban or punish players
On March 14 2019 10:06 RPR_Tempest wrote: If this is true I feel bad for Seventy. Dude must have been SO excited to take a game, but it was a lie.
Kinda like how it actually, provably happened to DRGLing
Hard evidence: something that can be proven. All these things I mentioned can be proven. These are pieces of hard evidence.
Seems like what you're actually looking for is hard proof of matchfixing like I said which is something pretty unrealistic like a picture of Macsed's transaction with a matchfixing agent.
So once again, your way sucks. The vast majority of the time you aren't going to get your hard, perfectly conclusive proof of matchfixing even when the person is truly guilty.
You can not prove something is blatant, you cannot prove something that you need to interpret. And its interesting that you call it "my way" and yet its literally the way all of SC esports has run ever nor have I actually shared my stance on whether I think its match fixing or not. No hard evidence, no ban. Its pretty simple
I mean each piece of evidence is proven to have occurred. He stopped his attack on the 2 zealots with his probes when the zealots were about to die, for example.
Anyway fair enough if you're just stating how they do it.
On March 14 2019 10:41 ZenithM wrote: Mods should be able to lock the thread for new accounts with fewer than 10 posts or something. I get that Chinese fans want to defend the integrity of their scene, but coming in here without solid arguments and with such a clear bias isn't helping anything. We get it, you think homeboy is innocent.
?????????
i get it that you have your pride and prejudice.
everyone wants truth, chinois aussi.
from my perspect, some chinese fans defend his integrity because that he is Macsed, they know something about his story, his personality, and what he suffered this year. he is worth for respect, really.
of course virtue can't prove anything, we need proof and this event should be followed and investigated.
but... forbid chinese useless fans' freedom to express their thought will be helpful...... wow, Je ne crois pas ce soit un concept français.
I'm just really passionate about this because it's so clear that he made so many intentional mistakes.
The fact that a large part of the community continues to say "oh but its just subjective" in this case tells me I don't even have to try to hide the fact that I'm matchfixing. I can do all the stupid stuff I want to lose the game in a very obvious manner and no one will care because hey, it's subjective.
A simple translation(sorry for my poor english): I was told Seventy91 much worse than me after first match.So I choose a cannon rush to finish quickly.When I see he bulid only a gateway I judge he will do a second base expansion.I think he played an unreasonable strategy in pro games.But the strategy actually was Rail told Seventy91,for Rail think I will do a misjudgment facing this unreasonable strategy.I really be tricked and have a lot of mistakes.After the match,Rail come over me and display that “It was my idea” .I feel ashamed by this loose.
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
Believe it or not, I think everyone should take a look at this. And maybe you should call the police to check rail's bank account? Maybe he made the bet on 7091?
Sure, a professional protoss isn't aware of the possibility that the opponent could be proxying when he sees 1 very late gate and no gas in the main base. You can't believe this stuff if you've actually played Protoss up to a decent level on ladder. If he was trying he would certainly scout to make sure it isn't a proxy. He knows better. If the guy was expanding he'd have nothing to worry about. The only way he could lose is not defending a proxy zealot rush. When you have as much experience as Macsed this thought process is automatic.
As merely a masters protoss it's already completely automatic for me to search for a proxy when I see no gasses taken. That's so much more common than no gas nexus and a silly gateway in the main is not going to change anything. That's just a silly ruse to create doubt in peoples minds who don't know better.
If you look at the OP, there was very little mention of what even occurred during the game. The OP had solid evidence on the "suspicious line movements". I don't even care what happened during the game. Everyone who wants to defend MacSed should explain how those "line movements" could've occurred.
On March 14 2019 12:14 Azzur wrote: If you look at the OP, there was very little mention of what even occurred during the game. The OP had solid evidence on the "suspicious line movements". I don't even care what happened during the game. Everyone who wants to defend MacSed should explain how those "line movements" could've occurred.
Exactly this. What happened in-game is nearly irrelevant in terms of actual crimes taking place. Follow the money.
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation.
It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions?
You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation.
You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit.
This guy gave a good example:
On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep.
Yo I got one of my own.
A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence.
Damn stories are fun
That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
In the U.S., convictions based on circumstantial evidence happen all the time. In some instances, circumstantial evidence is better than certain types of direct evidence as it is significantly less fallible. (e.g. cell phone records placing someone in an area can be better than eye witness testimony)
If someone can be convicted of murder based solely upon circumstantial evidence, someone can and should be banned from an esport based on nothing but circumstantial evidence. If the betting pattern described is accurate, MacSed needs to be banned because there is no other reasonable explanation for what happened.
Of course. If the quantity of circumstantial evidence is sufficient to meet the standard of proof, then a guilty verdict is all but guaranteed.
So then, the relevant questions would be:
1. Does the evidence presented here meet that legal standard of proof?
2. Was said evidence presented in accordance with the laws of criminal prosecution?
3. What authority do TL forumgoers have to render judgement?
A smoking gun in the form of direct and incontrovertible evidence is very useful, because in that case even the most legally illiterate reader can add 2+2. Circumstantial evidence on the other hand is, well, circumstantial.
WESG admin here, still on-site as one of the two non-Chinese referees. I made a post in this topic before, but would like to add something in response to the latest posts. Seventy91 did do a strategy that was suggested to him by Rail in that second game. Immediately after game 2 he told me so, and Rail, separately, told me the same (that he had advised Seventy91 to do that build, and that he could win with it).
By the way: I'm not involved with any official investigation, but from what I can tell it's being handled well.
On March 14 2019 12:28 VanCaspel wrote: WESG admin here, still on-site as one of the two non-Chinese referees. I made a post in this topic before, but would like to add something in response to the latest posts. Seventy91 did do a strategy that was suggested to him by Rail in that second game. Immediately after game 2 he told me so, and Rail, separately, told me the same (that he had advised Seventy91 to do that build, and that he could win with it).
By the way: I'm not involved with any official investigation, but from what I can tell it's being handled well.
Thank you again, we appreciate the updates and it's great to hear about the investigation.
On March 14 2019 12:14 Azzur wrote: If you look at the OP, there was very little mention of what even occurred during the game. The OP had solid evidence on the "suspicious line movements". I don't even care what happened during the game. Everyone who wants to defend MacSed should explain how those "line movements" could've occurred.
Yeah people keep reverting back into the game, but the biggest thing is the betting! Something definitely happened.
On March 14 2019 12:14 Azzur wrote: If you look at the OP, there was very little mention of what even occurred during the game. The OP had solid evidence on the "suspicious line movements". I don't even care what happened during the game. Everyone who wants to defend MacSed should explain how those "line movements" could've occurred.
Yeah people keep reverting back into the game, but the biggest thing is the betting! Something definitely happened.
Both are very important. It's just that there's more to focus on in terms of the gameplay. On the betting side it's 100% sure that someone bet large money on Seventy causing a very crazy/rare line move. Now, the only reason someone would do that when he's against such a superior opponent is because the result is prearranged.
That's why I'm only focusing on the gameplay here. The betting side of the argument is super straightforward.
On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
Believe it or not, I think everyone should take a look at this. And maybe you should call the police to check rail's bank account? Maybe he made the bet on 7091?
This response really doesn't offer me any confidence that there wasn't any match fixing involved here.
The betting line moved in such a way that it meant a person was extremely confident that Seventy91 would win a map. Nobody is going to put that much money on a sub-4000 MMR player to beat a 6000+ MMR player unless they know for sure a fix is going on. You're not going to just tell a Diamond player, "Hey go proxy gate" and then be that confident that you're going to win the bet.
Also, as some posters have pointed out, my original post doesn't contain any details about what happened during the actual game. That is because I wrote and published the post without knowing that the game was even broadcasted; I felt that the MMR disparity as well as the betting trends was more than enough information to warrant a thread.
On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
Believe it or not, I think everyone should take a look at this. And maybe you should call the police to check rail's bank account? Maybe he made the bet on 7091?
This response really doesn't offer me any confidence that there wasn't any match fixing involved here.
The betting line moved in such a way that it meant a person was extremely confident that Seventy91 would win a map. Nobody is going to put that much money on a sub-4000 MMR player to beat a 6000+ MMR player unless they know for sure a fix is going on. You're not going to just tell a Diamond player, "Hey go proxy gate" and then be that confident that you're going to win the bet.
Also, as some posters have pointed out, my original post doesn't contain any details about what happened during the actual game. That is because I wrote and published the post without knowing that the game was even broadcasted; I felt that the MMR disparity as well as the betting trends was more than enough information to warrant a thread.
Agreed in all respects.
The real meat of this is what happened with the betting line, and that's what warrants investigation. A statement from the player is nice to have on record, but it's pretty weak evidence for anything. Just like the replay of the game, which certain people are so fixated on.
On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
Believe it or not, I think everyone should take a look at this. And maybe you should call the police to check rail's bank account? Maybe he made the bet on 7091?
This response really doesn't offer me any confidence that there wasn't any match fixing involved here.
The betting line moved in such a way that it meant a person was extremely confident that Seventy91 would win a map. Nobody is going to put that much money on a sub-4000 MMR player to beat a 6000+ MMR player unless they know for sure a fix is going on. You're not going to just tell a Diamond player, "Hey go proxy gate" and then be that confident that you're going to win the bet.
Also, as some posters have pointed out, my original post doesn't contain any details about what happened during the actual game. That is because I wrote and published the post without knowing that the game was even broadcasted; I felt that the MMR disparity as well as the betting trends was more than enough information to warrant a thread.
Agreed in all respects.
I don't understand why you'll go for that and not the equally suspicious in game evidence but whatever I'm glad you feel the same way about that.
On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
Believe it or not, I think everyone should take a look at this. And maybe you should call the police to check rail's bank account? Maybe he made the bet on 7091?
This response really doesn't offer me any confidence that there wasn't any match fixing involved here.
The betting line moved in such a way that it meant a person was extremely confident that Seventy91 would win a map. Nobody is going to put that much money on a sub-4000 MMR player to beat a 6000+ MMR player unless they know for sure a fix is going on. You're not going to just tell a Diamond player, "Hey go proxy gate" and then be that confident that you're going to win the bet.
Also, as some posters have pointed out, my original post doesn't contain any details about what happened during the actual game. That is because I wrote and published the post without knowing that the game was even broadcasted; I felt that the MMR disparity as well as the betting trends was more than enough information to warrant a thread.
Agreed in all respects.
I don't understand why you'll go for that and not the equally suspicious in game evidence but whatever I'm glad you feel the same way about that.
I added more detail after you replied.
If somebody accused Macsed of matchfixing based solely on his in-game actions and without any abnormal betting line, they'd be laughed out of here. The reason this is suspicious is because of the betting line–Macsed's in-game actions make little difference one way or another, and I take exception to the way people like you are jumping on it as though it were proof of anything.
As I said earlier, given what I've seen so far, I personally believe that Macsed was probably involved in matchfixing. Or, if not matchfixing, suspicious shenanigans of some sort. But it's a big leap to call for bans and fines and punishment based solely on the limited information that I (and most of the people on TL) know.
On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
Believe it or not, I think everyone should take a look at this. And maybe you should call the police to check rail's bank account? Maybe he made the bet on 7091?
This response really doesn't offer me any confidence that there wasn't any match fixing involved here.
The betting line moved in such a way that it meant a person was extremely confident that Seventy91 would win a map. Nobody is going to put that much money on a sub-4000 MMR player to beat a 6000+ MMR player unless they know for sure a fix is going on. You're not going to just tell a Diamond player, "Hey go proxy gate" and then be that confident that you're going to win the bet.
Also, as some posters have pointed out, my original post doesn't contain any details about what happened during the actual game. That is because I wrote and published the post without knowing that the game was even broadcasted; I felt that the MMR disparity as well as the betting trends was more than enough information to warrant a thread.
Agreed in all respects.
I don't understand why you'll go for that and not the equally suspicious in game evidence but whatever I'm glad you feel the same way about that.
I added more detail after you replied.
If somebody accused Macsed of matchfixing based solely on his in-game actions and without any abnormal betting line, they'd be laughed out of here. The reason this is suspicious is because of the betting line–Macsed's in-game actions make little difference one way or another, and I take exception to the way people like you are jumping on it as though it were proof of anything.
As I said earlier, given what I've seen so far, I personally believe that Macsed was involved in matchfixing. But it's a big leap to call for bans and fines and punishment based solely on the limited information that I know.
The problem with this approach is I can do pretty much anything I want to intentionally throw the game, I don't even need to bother to hide it and it's okay because in game actions make little difference one way or the other. It's such a silly concept to me. I'll never agree.
On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
Believe it or not, I think everyone should take a look at this. And maybe you should call the police to check rail's bank account? Maybe he made the bet on 7091?
This response really doesn't offer me any confidence that there wasn't any match fixing involved here.
The betting line moved in such a way that it meant a person was extremely confident that Seventy91 would win a map. Nobody is going to put that much money on a sub-4000 MMR player to beat a 6000+ MMR player unless they know for sure a fix is going on. You're not going to just tell a Diamond player, "Hey go proxy gate" and then be that confident that you're going to win the bet.
Also, as some posters have pointed out, my original post doesn't contain any details about what happened during the actual game. That is because I wrote and published the post without knowing that the game was even broadcasted; I felt that the MMR disparity as well as the betting trends was more than enough information to warrant a thread.
Agreed in all respects.
I don't understand why you'll go for that and not the equally suspicious in game evidence but whatever I'm glad you feel the same way about that.
I added more detail after you replied.
If somebody accused Macsed of matchfixing based solely on his in-game actions and without any abnormal betting line, they'd be laughed out of here. The reason this is suspicious is because of the betting line–Macsed's in-game actions make little difference one way or another, and I take exception to the way people like you are jumping on it as though it were proof of anything.
As I said earlier, given what I've seen so far, I personally believe that Macsed was involved in matchfixing. But it's a big leap to call for bans and fines and punishment based solely on the limited information that I know.
The problem with this approach is I can do pretty much anything I want to intentionally throw the game, I don't even need to bother to hide it and it's okay because in game actions make little difference one way or the other. It's such a silly concept to me. I'll never agree.
Of course you can. Throwing a game isn't illegal, and even if it was, how could you ever prove it was a throw? How do you know the player wasn't just tired, or sick, or hungover, or whatever? People make dumb mistakes every day in every way.
What is an actual crime in places like Korea/China, is matchfixing by getting involved with illegal gambling rings. And if you're accusing people of crimes, you need hard evidence. Which is not going to be found by looking at replays, but rather by following the money. And fortunately for us forumgoers, it sounds like the people on the ground are doing just that.
On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
Believe it or not, I think everyone should take a look at this. And maybe you should call the police to check rail's bank account? Maybe he made the bet on 7091?
This response really doesn't offer me any confidence that there wasn't any match fixing involved here.
The betting line moved in such a way that it meant a person was extremely confident that Seventy91 would win a map. Nobody is going to put that much money on a sub-4000 MMR player to beat a 6000+ MMR player unless they know for sure a fix is going on. You're not going to just tell a Diamond player, "Hey go proxy gate" and then be that confident that you're going to win the bet.
Also, as some posters have pointed out, my original post doesn't contain any details about what happened during the actual game. That is because I wrote and published the post without knowing that the game was even broadcasted; I felt that the MMR disparity as well as the betting trends was more than enough information to warrant a thread.
Agreed in all respects.
I don't understand why you'll go for that and not the equally suspicious in game evidence but whatever I'm glad you feel the same way about that.
I added more detail after you replied.
If somebody accused Macsed of matchfixing based solely on his in-game actions and without any abnormal betting line, they'd be laughed out of here. The reason this is suspicious is because of the betting line–Macsed's in-game actions make little difference one way or another, and I take exception to the way people like you are jumping on it as though it were proof of anything.
As I said earlier, given what I've seen so far, I personally believe that Macsed was involved in matchfixing. But it's a big leap to call for bans and fines and punishment based solely on the limited information that I know.
The problem with this approach is I can do pretty much anything I want to intentionally throw the game, I don't even need to bother to hide it and it's okay because in game actions make little difference one way or the other. It's such a silly concept to me. I'll never agree.
Of course you can. Throwing a game isn't illegal, and even if it was, how could you ever prove it was a throw? How do you know the player wasn't just tired, or sick, or hungover, or whatever? People make dumb mistakes every day in every way.
What is an actual crime in places like Korea/China, is matchfixing by getting involved with illegal gambling rings. And if you're accusing people of crimes, you need hard evidence. Which is not going to be found by looking at replays, but rather by following the money. And fortunately for us forumgoers, it sounds like the people on the ground are doing just that.
That's why you have to distinguish between situations like this
1) I have a full surround on 2 zealots and at the very last second when one more probe hit is going to kill both of them I pull away all my probes and never go back to kill them
2) I have a full surround on 2 zealots and at the very last second when one more probe hit is going to kill both of them I accidentally click somewhere else but I go back and kill them right away
There is no excuse at all for scenario 1. It can't qualify as a dumb mistake because he could've corrected the mistake after pulling the probes away. He was intentionally allowing the zealots to survive. Also the timing is very unlikely to be pulling away the probes at the very last second when they're 1 shot away from dying if you're innocent. There's way too many pieces of evidence and synchroncities occurring in this game that show beyond reasonable doubt he was actively trying to lose.
Sure throwing a game isn't illegal but this isn't simply throwing a game at some point. That happens all the time due to high level of difficulty in pro games. This is intentionally losing the game in every way against a very inferior player. The only possible incentive to do that is because you're being paid to lose.
Yes you want to have evidence of suspicious betting activity at the same time and that's exactly what we have here. Doesn't mean the in-game actions are irrelevant.
I would love to know if we can find out if anyone bet for a 2-1 outcome on any other of seventy91’s series. I would also like to know if more than one bet was made or it was just one bet that changed the line so much. Like, giving his MMR disparity from everyone else in his group, you could have picked anyone he played against as it was a long shot he would win regardless.
Knowing this info would make things a lot clearer imo.
tbh I think there is a chance that Macsed just played really badly that game but I do admit that it's hard to believe this was unintentional. I still think people should wait and see what the investigation says instead of declaring that he match-fixed, even though there is a high chance that he did.
This is an interesting situation. I think the community should ease up slightly on the accusations since they have been brought to light, and the tournament organizer is aware and investigating the situation. I can see both sides of it. If we go by the betting site, it's definitely suspicious, but more information on the amount needed to move the line that far would be really helpful here.
If we go by the rep, there were some unusual mistakes. I don't really follow the scene or watch the game much anymore, but from watching the game, I dunno why macsed revealed his probes. You could argue he fought with them to buy time for the cannon to wrap but then he also left one to die that he could've canceled I think? Aside from that, the block with a cannon rather than a gateway was the weirdest part to me. I'm pretty sure a gateway there fits. That would at least buy him time to get a cannon up, even if partially and he could continue making pylons and walling until that one cannon is done. Getting a cannon started when the zealot was that close was indeed bizzare. The probes should've just finished off the 2 red hp zealots and maybe he thought that he lost enough already but if he has no cannons, he had to fight with the probes even if he lost several more since he had no other choice.
Overall, there's always a chance that he was playing badly but some of these mistakes are definitely bizzare. Still, I believe that people should respect the final decision of the tournament organizer and waiting patiently for it. I remember when MKP had that weird game that he lost, and was found innocent after the investigation so who knows what they'll find here.
On March 14 2019 12:28 VanCaspel wrote: WESG admin here, still on-site as one of the two non-Chinese referees. I made a post in this topic before, but would like to add something in response to the latest posts. Seventy91 did do a strategy that was suggested to him by Rail in that second game. Immediately after game 2 he told me so, and Rail, separately, told me the same (that he had advised Seventy91 to do that build, and that he could win with it).
By the way: I'm not involved with any official investigation, but from what I can tell it's being handled well.
Just curious: is it common that after a match, players come over to the referee to tell them whose idea it was to run a certain strategy?
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
You have hard evidence. His actions in game such as blatantly allowing the zealots to survive when they only had about 10 hp left, failing to complete his wall with a gateway instead of a gateway & cannon which would obviously allow the zealot to break through super quickly, fiddling around with his probes for literally no productive reason at all instead of cancelling his cannon, and many other examples. Then you have the hard evidence of the incredibly strange line move that can only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on his opponent.
I think the greatest failure in general of people who argue against jumping to the matchfixing conclusion is in realizing how devastatingly unlikely it is for a professional player to do all these things in the same game. And you can't tell me it's just a coincidence the very crazy line move happened at the same time. A line move like that is already 100% proof that someone placed big money on the opponent. No one would do that unless it was prearranged. All the individual things that have happened here are already unlikely by themselves. Place them all together into the same storm of events occurring over a single game and it's astronomically unlikely that they all happen together unless there is match fixing involved.
Just because you fail to interpret the evidence to the logical conclusion doesn't mean it isn't hard evidence. The only thing you'll accept is an undeniable photo of his transaction with the matchfixer or something like that.
If everyone thinks like you the matchfixers will just get away with it the vast majority of the time. Your way is not effective enough.
Please allow yourself to look up the definition of hard evidence and get back to me. Because circumstantial/subjective evidence is not equivalent to hard evidence. And you need hard evidence to ban or punish players
On March 14 2019 10:06 RPR_Tempest wrote: If this is true I feel bad for Seventy. Dude must have been SO excited to take a game, but it was a lie.
Kinda like how it actually, provably happened to DRGLing
Crazy how the criminal justice system can convict based solely on circumstantial evidence but esports has to have a much higher standard.
In this case the authorities can access all the data they need, it's not hard. What's more interesting is, how all the "it's matchfixing" guys ignore the response from the referee and Pinnacle. Because they simply don't like it. That's the proper witchhunt. ONLY MY EVIDENCE IS WORTH IT, EVERYONE ELSE'S EVIDENCE IS IGNORED!@#!$!!!!!!!! HURR DURR!!!
Yeah, but even then the criminal system has more than "line moved, but we don't know how much money was involved"* and "he played suspiciously". This is ALL we have.
Hey, pvsnp, thanks for the fighting spirt Sorry if I butchered your nick
_______ *btw you do realize that since this was a match of a very unknown player and underdog against a streamer, it could have had very high instability put in the algorithm and just few hundred bucks could have been responsible for all the movement? Because of how volatile the SC2 game is and because it's hard to predict for sure on BO1? (which is what this bet was about)
Edit> But why am I surprised, even KeSPA standing behind MKP didn't help from some people simply saying - it was matchfixing, I know better than people who harshly punish typing into the chat and left this guy unpunished.
Nice with so much new information about what is going on. Macseds reply is fishy as hell though, how could Rail "know" that Macsed would try to finish the game quickly? Maybe he could guess that but to design a BO around it for Seventy just seems off, a three gate proxy is that really strong against all kinds of early builds Macsed could try? I mean isn't that only a blind counter to cannon rush specifically? That is really really weird, somehow Rail knew Macsed would cheese, but not only that he would cheese but also what specific cheese?
Macsed even says he believes he would have lost even if he played perfectly? The diamond player is so bad he needs to amove his canon rush probes into the zealot for them to die and needed to activily micro his probes away to not kill the two zealots in his mineral line. We're talking diamond vs GM level here, of course if Macsed defends the all-in which he easily could have done without all those mistakes he should win that game.
He says its his fault and that it is embarassing but he also says it was nothing he could do, even with perfect play he would lose? So he is trying to say "don't look at all my mistakes, the loss has nothing to do with my mistakes it was simply an auto build order loss".
I continue to dislike the "betting line movement" witchhunts. This is simply something out of control for the players. Someone can ruin their reputation by placing weird bets without them having any idea it's happening and no recourse. Finding "suspicious" ingame behavior to boost your confirmation bias will never be super hard.
On March 14 2019 17:22 opisska wrote: I continue to dislike the "betting line movement" witchhunts. This is simply something out of control for the players. Someone can ruin their reputation by placing weird bets without them having any idea it's happening and no recourse. Finding "suspicious" ingame behavior to boost your confirmation bias will never be super hard.
they could just place weird bets, but it would only get called out if the game happened to go exactly the way they bet.
interestingly, these odd betting patterns only occur when the games go in favor of the bets... bizarre
On March 14 2019 17:22 opisska wrote: I continue to dislike the "betting line movement" witchhunts. This is simply something out of control for the players. Someone can ruin their reputation by placing weird bets without them having any idea it's happening and no recourse. Finding "suspicious" ingame behavior to boost your confirmation bias will never be super hard.
they could just place weird bets, but it would only get called out if the game happened to go exactly the way they bet.
interestingly, these odd betting patterns only occur when the games go in favor of the bets... bizarre
Do they? Do you really have statistics on that, or just a vague feeling?
On March 14 2019 17:22 opisska wrote: I continue to dislike the "betting line movement" witchhunts. This is simply something out of control for the players. Someone can ruin their reputation by placing weird bets without them having any idea it's happening and no recourse. Finding "suspicious" ingame behavior to boost your confirmation bias will never be super hard.
I mean, sure, it's theoretically possible, but the chances are so minuscule for scenarios like that.
Someone maliciously wanted to target a mid-tier Chinese (semi-)pro player, by placing weird bets, risking his own money, and happens to nail the one game that it actually pans out?
There's a non-zero chance for that, sure, as there is a non-zero chance for someone just blindly picking out that map of that meaningless and low profile series, betting against the odds, and hitting the jackpot.
As it was said before, if only irrefutable and tangible proof paired with a confession would be enough basis for proving any sort of cheating, than pretty much all the cheaters would get away with everything.
I also agree, that those competent with investigating it should do so, but in the meantime, it's completely fine for the community to form an opinion based on what we do know.
If the actual investigation turns up other things, and arrives at a different conclusion (i really dont see it in this case), then sure, that has to be taken as the final ruling.
On March 14 2019 17:22 opisska wrote: I continue to dislike the "betting line movement" witchhunts. This is simply something out of control for the players. Someone can ruin their reputation by placing weird bets without them having any idea it's happening and no recourse. Finding "suspicious" ingame behavior to boost your confirmation bias will never be super hard.
they could just place weird bets, but it would only get called out if the game happened to go exactly the way they bet.
interestingly, these odd betting patterns only occur when the games go in favor of the bets... bizarre
Do they? Do you really have statistics on that, or just a vague feeling?
that's an interesting point, I only follow SC2 so those are the only events I hear about, and those all have.
But, true, it's possible that people only make posts when the strange betting patterns are accompanied by a matching game result.
It's possible that there are many strange, huge bets we never hear about because they got it wrong. But since these are low-probability bets, for it all to be pure luck, the number of people betting big and losing would have to vastly outnumber cases like this one.
So if someone were to look at SC2 betting history, they'd expect to find a huge number of crazy, losing bets. I wonder...
On March 14 2019 13:36 BigFan wrote: Overall, there's always a chance that he was playing badly but some of these mistakes are definitely bizzare. Still, I believe that people should respect the final decision of the tournament organizer and waiting patiently for it. I remember when MKP had that weird game that he lost, and was found innocent after the investigation so who knows what they'll find here.
Indeed I don't want any players' career tarnished or ruined based on a supposition. MacSed could easily be found innocent of wrongdoing and yet have his reputation ruined in a manner similar to what happened to MarineKing.
On March 14 2019 13:36 BigFan wrote: Overall, there's always a chance that he was playing badly but some of these mistakes are definitely bizzare. Still, I believe that people should respect the final decision of the tournament organizer and waiting patiently for it. I remember when MKP had that weird game that he lost, and was found innocent after the investigation so who knows what they'll find here.
Indeed I don't want any players' career tarnished or ruined based on a supposition. MacSed could easily be found innocent of wrongdoing and yet have his reputation ruined in a manner similar to what happened to MarineKing.
I admit to not following the scene at all in 2015, and im going by just what i read on Liquipedia, but from there i got the idea that he was internally investigated by his team/organization and found not guilty, and nor KeSpa nor teh actual law-enforcement cleared him or indicted him " In an internal investigation, they interviewed their Terran player several times about that match. Due to him denying match-fixing and looking into the replay, they concluded that MarineKing lost the match due to personal stress and pressure. There has not been any statement by KeSPA about that incident. Also, there has not been any final evidence about this match being fixed or not."
So from that i gathered that he was left in a bit of a limbo, but it's not like he was cleared and his reputation suffered unduly, while he was obviously innocent.
On March 14 2019 17:22 opisska wrote: I continue to dislike the "betting line movement" witchhunts. This is simply something out of control for the players. Someone can ruin their reputation by placing weird bets without them having any idea it's happening and no recourse. Finding "suspicious" ingame behavior to boost your confirmation bias will never be super hard.
they could just place weird bets, but it would only get called out if the game happened to go exactly the way they bet.
interestingly, these odd betting patterns only occur when the games go in favor of the bets... bizarre
Do they? Do you really have statistics on that, or just a vague feeling?
that's an interesting point, I only follow SC2 so those are the only events I hear about, and those all have.
But, true, it's possible that people only make posts when the strange betting patterns are accompanied by a matching game result.
It's possible that there are many strange, huge bets we never hear about because they got it wrong. But since these are low-probability bets, for it all to be pure luck, the number of people betting big and losing would have to vastly outnumber cases like this one.
So if someone were to look at SC2 betting history, they'd expect to find a huge number of crazy, losing bets. I wonder...
Yeah I don't bet so have no idea if such data is even anyhow available for past bets or no, but I would be genuinely interested in the data if someone knew how to dig that up.
On March 14 2019 12:28 VanCaspel wrote: WESG admin here, still on-site as one of the two non-Chinese referees. I made a post in this topic before, but would like to add something in response to the latest posts. Seventy91 did do a strategy that was suggested to him by Rail in that second game. Immediately after game 2 he told me so, and Rail, separately, told me the same (that he had advised Seventy91 to do that build, and that he could win with it).
By the way: I'm not involved with any official investigation, but from what I can tell it's being handled well.
Just curious: is it common that after a match, players come over to the referee to tell them whose idea it was to run a certain strategy?
It was not so much 'coming over' as it was turning around. I was sitting behind him to the left, between him and MacSed. Seventy91 was elated when he won, and he turned around and told me he was glad Rail gave him that strategy. And that he made one of the gates in his base by mistake and that that saved him. I already had several conversations with Seventy91 at that point, including a little interview with the aim of making a Liquipedia page for him (which got removed ). So it's not like he walked over to some anonymous referee to volunteer this information. The same goes for Rail, I think we spoke during lunch when he talked about giving Seventy91 that strategy.
MacSed's response was exactly what you would expect coming from someone who match fixed. It didn't offer any new insight that could counter the stronger arguments against fixing. Not convincing at all, and pointless. "oh boohoo, a proxy gate build!!! I've suddenly reverted back to a 3K MMR protoss". Nah.
The thing is, whatever build Seventy91 chose to do is almost completely irrelevant here, what MacSed is accused of is to have planned to drop a game to him in advance (and he knew he was a weaker player, see the message). The actual opposing build caught him off-guard, sure, but he was always going to lose that game.
On March 14 2019 18:35 ZenithM wrote: MacSed's response was exactly what you would expect coming from someone who match fixed. It didn't offer any new insight that could counter the stronger arguments against fixing. Not convincing at all, and pointless.
Any response is exactly what you would expect from "a witch" in a witch hunt.
I agree that it didn't offer any new insight, but what kind of response are you expecting?
Something that we couldn't have imagined yet that could maybe start convincing us he's innocent. Personal circumstance, specific pro-gamer type reads that would justify to us peasants the multiple mistakes, I don't know. What MacSed just said was "ohhh what a good build, I lost so easily!".
And to reiterate what I said earlier, his message doesn't change my view that a replay and a weird betting pattern are not enough to ban him from tournaments. But "justice" and people's beliefs are two separate things. I can believe he match fixed but also think you can't ban him yet.
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
You have hard evidence. His actions in game such as blatantly allowing the zealots to survive when they only had about 10 hp left, failing to complete his wall with a gateway instead of a gateway & cannon which would obviously allow the zealot to break through super quickly, fiddling around with his probes for literally no productive reason at all instead of cancelling his cannon, and many other examples. Then you have the hard evidence of the incredibly strange line move that can only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on his opponent.
I think the greatest failure in general of people who argue against jumping to the matchfixing conclusion is in realizing how devastatingly unlikely it is for a professional player to do all these things in the same game. And you can't tell me it's just a coincidence the very crazy line move happened at the same time. A line move like that is already 100% proof that someone placed big money on the opponent. No one would do that unless it was prearranged. All the individual things that have happened here are already unlikely by themselves. Place them all together into the same storm of events occurring over a single game and it's astronomically unlikely that they all happen together unless there is match fixing involved.
Just because you fail to interpret the evidence to the logical conclusion doesn't mean it isn't hard evidence. The only thing you'll accept is an undeniable photo of his transaction with the matchfixer or something like that.
If everyone thinks like you the matchfixers will just get away with it the vast majority of the time. Your way is not effective enough.
Please allow yourself to look up the definition of hard evidence and get back to me. Because circumstantial/subjective evidence is not equivalent to hard evidence. And you need hard evidence to ban or punish players
On March 14 2019 10:06 RPR_Tempest wrote: If this is true I feel bad for Seventy. Dude must have been SO excited to take a game, but it was a lie.
Kinda like how it actually, provably happened to DRGLing
Crazy how the criminal justice system can convict based solely on circumstantial evidence but esports has to have a much higher standard.
In this case the authorities can access all the data they need, it's not hard. What's more interesting is, how all the "it's matchfixing" guys ignore the response from the referee and Pinnacle. Because they simply don't like it. That's the proper witchhunt. ONLY MY EVIDENCE IS WORTH IT, EVERYONE ELSE'S EVIDENCE IS IGNORED!@#!$!!!!!!!! HURR DURR!!!
Yeah, but even then the criminal system has more than "line moved, but we don't know how much money was involved"* and "he played suspiciously". This is ALL we have.
Hey, pvsnp, thanks for the fighting spirt Sorry if I butchered your nick
_______ *btw you do realize that since this was a match of a very unknown player and underdog against a streamer, it could have had very high instability put in the algorithm and just few hundred bucks could have been responsible for all the movement? Because of how volatile the SC2 game is and because it's hard to predict for sure on BO1? (which is what this bet was about)
Edit> But why am I surprised, even KeSPA standing behind MKP didn't help from some people simply saying - it was matchfixing, I know better than people who harshly punish typing into the chat and left this guy unpunished.
Hey man thanks for the shoutout, I try. You got it just right.
Hello, I felt obliged to participate in this thread since my and Seventy names are in it. First of all, Serbia got wesg spot directly which is only result of losing Dota2 spot. We had strong dota2 team which should go to wesg directly but it waa changed at the very end by some strange decisions from.wesg organisers, afaik. To compensate that Serbia got direct slot for sc2, which is ofc terrible since we only have 2 active GM players who didnt wanted to participate. We all expected Beastyqt to come abd stomp us all and go to China but he retired from professional competition which left us with 5 players who played round robin system with finals for qualifying spot. I was 7 times high master player but was completely out of scene for 4 years before this qualifier (you can check aligulac for earlier matches where i beat Kelazhur, SouL, and others). I even toom zerg because i faced all protoss players and won whole thing knowing i have attorneys examination bar in march and immidiately told organisers i cant go with probability of 80%. We waited for date and when it was published i forfeited my spot because it overlapped with wesg and i had no intention to postpone my real life obligations for sc2 since im nowhere nearly pro, obviosly. Seventy got in just a couple of weeks before tournament and havent practiced at all. His mmr is way higher then 4k when he is active, but of course not MacSed level. Someone obviosly made fake Seventy91 profile on reddit and is writing complete bs because seventy cannot spend more then 5 mins on fb or tw before connection colapse. Dont know if Chinese state is to be blamed for this but he is out of our sc2 viber group since he left, we cant communicate much with him. I only saw sshots of his writings to us that he heard of matchfixing but has no idea if its true. One gate in base and 3 proxied was hisnidea to confuse macsed and his roommate Rail told.him its good so he tried. Just want to say that he wasnt involved. I dont kniw for Macsed. If u ask me, its impossible for him to lose even 1 unit and not a map to seventy and it should be investigated but lets not drag Serbian into this. I am not defending him because we are countrymans, just because i know he was trying hard for this and it was macseds bs if he let him take a map for money. If you ask me personally, no one of us from Serbia who played in qualifier cant take map from and player with 5000 and more mmr. So MacSed should be bannes for this but Seventy has nothing to do with that.
I feel like anyone arguing for macsed's innocence here has no freaking clue about sc2. There's no freaking way a 4k player beats an established pro, not even once. Just look at the game! Which 6k+ MMR pro loses BOTH PROBES during a cannon rush to a fking zealot??? and then walls off with A CANNON instead of a gate?? twice???? that's just far far beyond a bad game. It's like watching a goalkeeper net the ball into his own goal twice in a row instead of passing it to his team and people claiming 'oh maybe he's had a bad game or nerves got to him idk'.
The explanation given is something completely different when you actually watch the actual game. There is just no way this isn't a match fix. So many WTF moments from a pro player.
And then add into the fact that someone, out in the nether bets HEAVY on this outcome to occur but doesnt bet like that on any other match.
Blizzard should investigate this and I would say I'm at least 99% certain this is a fix.
Good detective work by OP, hope you can re-earn your loss.
For the people absolutely determined, I think you should take a step back and read up on the actual consequences these kinds of rumours can have on people. During the BW scandal there were a lot of innocent players accused and in some cases it ruined their careers. Take a look at Sangho for example. There is also a translated interview. I think it is way too quick to place judgement on macsed. As some people even referenced, you can look at the MKP game. A lot of different circumstances and stress in players' lives can heavily affect their gameplay with the additional stress of a broadcasted game.
This thread is such a déjà vu. A lot of threads on TL of course are but this one; Beat for beat. So let's just follow suit.
Of course there is a lot of focus on the suspicious game and now Macsed's explanation of it and to be fair, it's all hilarious stuff. But it's not going to reveal anything.
What matters is a LRSL level player managed to qualify for WESG. He now has to play 5 matches against far better players than him. A few hours before the kick off a large enough amount of money was placed on 1 of these matches for him to take 1 map to change betting lines significantly. Not on any of the other four, just this one. And this is exactly what happens.
On it's own it's not enough for the organization or authorities to ban or punish Macsed but it certainly is enough to open an investigation. If nothing is found we all have to accept the outcome. Better to have guilty people go free than innocent ones punished.
Still, it should be clear to everyone what has happened here. I don't think this new thread title needs a question mark.
Macsed's reply is like when a 6 year old tries to use random unrelated facts to conceal the real truth because they don't want to admit they took the cookie.
If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
I feel like TL is becoming reddit :D so quick to pull your pitchforks out of the closet, its a mirror matchup, MacSeed out of practice, shit happens and ppl go bonkers because of betting line...
On March 14 2019 21:59 inermis wrote: I feel like TL is becoming reddit :D so quick to pull your pitchforks out of the closet, its a mirror matchup, MacSeed out of practice, shit happens and ppl go bonkers because of betting line...
If you disagree with the "pitchforks" then you got to offer counter-arguments and not this petulant crap.
Another player giving Seventy91 his strategy makes this even more likely to be match fixing because MacSed transitions from a failed cannon rush and beats a Seventy91 in a macro game 99/100 times. If it is cheese vs cheese, MacSed has to try a lot less to throw the game.
On March 14 2019 21:59 inermis wrote: I feel like TL is becoming reddit :D so quick to pull your pitchforks out of the closet, its a mirror matchup, MacSeed out of practice, shit happens and ppl go bonkers because of betting line...
If you disagree with the "pitchforks" then you got to offer counter-arguments and not this petulant crap.
Because arguing with lynch mobs is so productive? Any game lost to a 4k MMR player is going to look suspicious when seen through the eyes of someone looking for confirmation of match-fixing after those betting odd swings.
Leave the investigating to WESG and Blizzard, who at least won't start with assumptions of guilt--but maybe the fact that they have some standards of evidence and aren't guaranteed to condemn MacSed is a problem to you.
On March 14 2019 21:59 inermis wrote: I feel like TL is becoming reddit :D so quick to pull your pitchforks out of the closet, its a mirror matchup, MacSeed out of practice, shit happens and ppl go bonkers because of betting line...
If you disagree with the "pitchforks" then you got to offer counter-arguments and not this petulant crap.
Because arguing with lynch mobs is so productive? Any game lost to a 4k MMR player is going to look suspicious when seen through the eyes of someone looking for confirmation of match-fixing after those betting odd swings.
Leave the investigating to WESG and Blizzard, who at least won't start with assumptions of guilt--but maybe the fact that they have some standards of evidence and aren't guaranteed to condemn MacSed is a problem to you.
yo i get it, we got to stop all discussion and debate because pitchforks, lynch mobs and worst of all redditors
On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote: If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
Between the 16 minutes the first and second bet OP made, the line changed from 1.371 to 1.341, or -.001875 per minute. OP says a "couple hours later" that the line moves tremendously from 1.34 to 2.06, but looking at the screenshots, those couple hours were really 5.5 hours. A .72 change over 5.5 hours comes out to .002181 per minute. Is a .000306 difference per minute really that suspicious?
I'm definitely not an expert on suspicious betting lines, I just did some quick math and it seemed like the rate of change was not hugely different, aside from the line going in the opposite direction. I guess i'm not understanding and am curious as to what stands out, other than the skill difference noted.
On March 14 2019 17:22 opisska wrote: I continue to dislike the "betting line movement" witchhunts. This is simply something out of control for the players. Someone can ruin their reputation by placing weird bets without them having any idea it's happening and no recourse. Finding "suspicious" ingame behavior to boost your confirmation bias will never be super hard.
I mean, sure, it's theoretically possible, but the chances are so minuscule for scenarios like that.
Someone maliciously wanted to target a mid-tier Chinese (semi-)pro player, by placing weird bets, risking his own money, and happens to nail the one game that it actually pans out?
There's a non-zero chance for that, sure, as there is a non-zero chance for someone just blindly picking out that map of that meaningless and low profile series, betting against the odds, and hitting the jackpot.
As it was said before, if only irrefutable and tangible proof paired with a confession would be enough basis for proving any sort of cheating, than pretty much all the cheaters would get away with everything.
I also agree, that those competent with investigating it should do so, but in the meantime, it's completely fine for the community to form an opinion based on what we do know.
If the actual investigation turns up other things, and arrives at a different conclusion (i really dont see it in this case), then sure, that has to be taken as the final ruling.
On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote: If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
Between the 16 minutes the first and second bet OP made, the line changed from 1.371 to 1.341, or -.001875 per minute. OP says a "couple hours later" that the line moves tremendously from 1.34 to 2.06, but looking at the screenshots, those couple hours were really 5.5 hours. A .72 change over 5.5 hours comes out to .002181 per minute. Is a .000306 difference per minute really that suspicious?
I'm definitely not an expert on suspicious betting lines, I just did some quick math and it seemed like the rate of change was not hugely different, aside from the line going in the opposite direction. I guess i'm not understanding and am curious as to what stands out, other than the skill difference noted.
It's a one-direction large move, not a swing in a narrow band.
On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote: If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
Between the 16 minutes the first and second bet OP made, the line changed from 1.371 to 1.341, or -.001875 per minute. OP says a "couple hours later" that the line moves tremendously from 1.34 to 2.06, but looking at the screenshots, those couple hours were really 5.5 hours. A .72 change over 5.5 hours comes out to .002181 per minute. Is a .000306 difference per minute really that suspicious?
I'm definitely not an expert on suspicious betting lines, I just did some quick math and it seemed like the rate of change was not hugely different, aside from the line going in the opposite direction. I guess i'm not understanding and am curious as to what stands out, other than the skill difference noted.
Don't read much of anything into this. If someone bet $10,000 or whatever amount on a huge underdog, that would raise major red flags. A smart person could reduce that risk by making smaller bets with a bunch of different accounts.
On March 14 2019 18:40 ZenithM wrote: Something that we couldn't have imagined yet that could maybe start convincing us he's innocent. Personal circumstance, specific pro-gamer type reads that would justify to us peasants the multiple mistakes, I don't know. What MacSed just said was "ohhh what a good build, I lost so easily!".
And to reiterate what I said earlier, his message doesn't change my view that a replay and a weird betting pattern are not enough to ban him from tournaments. But "justice" and people's beliefs are two separate things. I can believe he match fixed but also think you can't ban him yet.
Completely understand this, but there needs to be a point where the evidence is just too strong. In my opinion we already have enough to work with. I have a feeling the investigators won't find their standard of "sufficient evidence" because the matchfixers effectively keep their dealings secret. So he can do this crap and just get away with it, no problem. While Life gets all kinds of serious punishment just because he was the one that didn't hide his dealings well enough. We're rewarding the more competent criminals essentially.
On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote: If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
Between the 16 minutes the first and second bet OP made, the line changed from 1.371 to 1.341, or -.001875 per minute. OP says a "couple hours later" that the line moves tremendously from 1.34 to 2.06, but looking at the screenshots, those couple hours were really 5.5 hours. A .72 change over 5.5 hours comes out to .002181 per minute. Is a .000306 difference per minute really that suspicious?
I'm definitely not an expert on suspicious betting lines, I just did some quick math and it seemed like the rate of change was not hugely different, aside from the line going in the opposite direction. I guess i'm not understanding and am curious as to what stands out, other than the skill difference noted.
Hey good question. I'll try my best to answer. It's not about the "speed" it changes. It's the money that comes in that changes the line. When a low volume game like sc2 (compared to football), the line can change easily in the beginning. Let's say you bet 100$, it might shift a bit. But the more money comes in (= later), the bigger bets it requires to move. So for example in the beginning you'd need 100$ to move the line 0.1, but in the end you'd need 1000$. If it takes a longer period for the line to move, that actually means there's more time for other people to adjust and bet against it. So it likely meant even more money went in with absurd odds.
Rotterdam commented on reddit that he'd lose 1 game every 30 or 50 games with 2000 MMR difference. I think that's already a bit generous if you think about a tournament setting and playing seriously. But let's go with 30. The line went up 2.06, meaning the probability of MacSeD winning 2-0 was ~45%.
If you lose 1 every 30 games, that's 3,3% probability to lose a game. In order to go 2-0 that's ~93%.
93% vs 45%. In sports betting even 1% is enough to get the edge for profitable betting. The difference is completely absurd. The fact that it look longer meant other people would resist the line moving that way. It means someone is dumping lots and lots of money - because he knows the outcome.
On March 14 2019 19:57 Stormhoof wrote: Hello, I felt obliged to participate in this thread since my and Seventy names are in it.
Someone obviosly made fake Seventy91 profile on reddit and is writing complete bs because seventy cannot spend more then 5 mins on fb or tw before connection colapse. Dont know if Chinese state is to be blamed for this but he is out of our sc2 viber group since he left, we cant communicate much with him. I only saw sshots of his writings to us that he heard of matchfixing but has no idea if its true. One gate in base and 3 proxied was hisnidea to confuse macsed and his roommate Rail told.him its good so he tried. Just want to say that he wasnt involved. I dont kniw for Macsed. If u ask me, its impossible for him to lose even 1 unit and not a map to seventy and it should be investigated but lets not drag Serbian into this. I am not defending him because we are countrymans, just because i know he was trying hard for this and it was macseds bs if he let him take a map for money. If you ask me personally, no one of us from Serbia who played in qualifier cant take map from and player with 5000 and more mmr. So MacSed should be bannes for this but Seventy has nothing to do with that.
On March 14 2019 20:15 DwD wrote: The explanation given is something completely different when you actually watch the actual game. There is just no way this isn't a match fix. So many WTF moments from a pro player.
And then add into the fact that someone, out in the nether bets HEAVY on this outcome to occur but doesnt bet like that on any other match.
Blizzard should investigate this and I would say I'm at least 99% certain this is a fix.
Good detective work by OP, hope you can re-earn your loss.
Exactly but according to some people we can't use the actual game as evidence *rolls eyes*. Lmao...
That's an insult to our intelligence, essentially saying that no one can distinguish between matchfixing behavior and non-matchfixing behavior. Maybe you can't do that with high reliability and you don't know how to do it scientifically. That doesn't mean it's impossible.
On March 14 2019 21:19 travis wrote: Macsed's reply is like when a 6 year old tries to use random unrelated facts to conceal the real truth because they don't want to admit they took the cookie.
If it walks like a matchfix, talks like a matchfix and looks like a matchfix, it is a very possible matchfix. Perfect game and situation to pull one off.
On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote: If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
Between the 16 minutes the first and second bet OP made, the line changed from 1.371 to 1.341, or -.001875 per minute. OP says a "couple hours later" that the line moves tremendously from 1.34 to 2.06, but looking at the screenshots, those couple hours were really 5.5 hours. A .72 change over 5.5 hours comes out to .002181 per minute. Is a .000306 difference per minute really that suspicious?
I'm definitely not an expert on suspicious betting lines, I just did some quick math and it seemed like the rate of change was not hugely different, aside from the line going in the opposite direction. I guess i'm not understanding and am curious as to what stands out, other than the skill difference noted.
Hey good question. I'll try my best to answer. It's not about the "speed" it changes. It's the money that comes in that changes the line. When a low volume game like sc2 (compared to football), the line can change easily in the beginning. Let's say you bet 100$, it might shift a bit. But the more money comes in (= later), the bigger bets it requires to move. So for example in the beginning you'd need 100$ to move the line 0.1, but in the end you'd need 1000$. If it takes a longer period for the line to move, that actually means there's more time for other people to adjust and bet against it. So it likely meant even more money went in with absurd odds.
Rotterdam commented on reddit that he'd lose 1 game every 30 or 50 games with 2000 MMR difference. I think that's already a bit generous if you think about a tournament setting and playing seriously. But let's go with 30. The line went up 2.06, meaning the probability of MacSeD winning 2-0 was ~45%.
If you lose 1 every 30 games, that's 3,3% probability to lose a game. In order to go 2-0 that's ~93%.
93% vs 45%. In sports betting even 1% is enough to get the edge for profitable betting. The difference is completely absurd. The fact that it look longer meant other people would resist the line moving that way. It means someone is dumping lots and lots of money - because he knows the outcome.
I see, thanks for taking the time to explain. I'm not much of a gambler.
Isn't canon rush a buildorder-win against a zealot rush?!
You wall the ramp, place a canon behind and the opponent will never be able to get into your base. Meanwhile you can slowly creep towards their nexus which they can't do anything about because they lack a ranged unit which could kill the probe and attack building canons without being in range of those that finished already.
So we are talking about a 6k player losing to a 4k player in a game where he has pretty much a default buildorderwin.
That in combination with rather unusual event of betting line change... I don't know Kev
Have followed this thread from the beginning as I always love these investigations. big props to OP for doing the work on the betting line ends and to the youtuber who posted his analysis of the replay.
In my opinion this is 100% match fixing if you look at either side of the evidence-- the replay or the betting lines-- and when you put the two together it is absolutely ridiculous to conclude that this was not a fixed game.
Walling off with the cannon not once, not twice, but three times when he had IN-GAME EVIDENCE that this did not work-- he literally saw the single zealot out dps a warping-in cannon multiple times; for anyone to discount this as bullshit is absolutely ridiculous. macsed is a professional sc2 player not some jobber they found on the street. he is clearly ignoring knowledge he possesses in order to throw the game. it is really sad that he had to expose himself so much to lose to this player, and he really flubbed every possible step.
It is absolutely unacceptable to lose scouting probes to zealots especially when you are cannon rushing and you have a cannon up and you are only facing zealots. we watched a 6k+ mmr protoss execute a cannon rush at a silver level in a game he knew he could lose and still win the series because his opponent is trash. i would like to see the other games in the series and note how he doesn't make silver league mistakes.
macsed should be blacklisted from any tournament that has any dignity. you don't have to invite him and even if we don't get more evidence i think what we have is enough that no one would want to work with him anymore.
Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
LOL thanks for posting this. i really wanted to see the other games in the series. i figured it would be night and day and what do you know. lock him up
On March 15 2019 03:36 Starcloud wrote: Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
imo they need to throw the book at him and make an example
On March 15 2019 03:36 Starcloud wrote: Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
The one consolation I guess, when somebody is this bad at throwing a game, it can safely be assumed that he hasnt been doing this for long, probably a first, fumbled attempt
I'm guessing the people who say in game evidence doesn't count have poor SC2 gamesense, haven't played the game at a high level, and aren't aware of how utterly incriminating this series actually is in reality.
The betting line is great evidence, yes, but the replay is equally great evidence if you really completely understand what you're seeing.
Anyway even if you only want to focus on the betting line non-serious bettors may not realize how rare/suspect a line move like this really is.
1) The super strange line movement only happened for this game out of all the games in the tournament
2) A player like Macsed doesn't have good chances to make a deep tournament run and is likely to be tempted by his most profitable option: matchfixing. He also wasn't required to lose the series so he has nothing to lose by dropping a game in the series for his partner in crime. He still has chances to do something in the tournament after that.
3) A line movement like this can literally only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on Seventy to win the game.
4) Who would bet a huge sum of money on exactly the correct game at huge underdog odds on a player who is so outclassed it's silly? That is, unless they knew it was prearranged?
5) Such drastic line moves are very rare because it basically only happens when someone knows 100% for sure who is going to win before it even begins
Combine all this with the outrageous events precisely pointed out by BeastyQT (who is a very strong former professional player) and we have more than enough of a fundamental base to justify doing something about this.
I'm guessing the people who say in game evidence doesn't count have poor SC2 gamesense, haven't played the game at a high level, and aren't aware of how utterly incriminating this series actually is in reality.
The betting line is great evidence, yes, but the replay is equally great evidence if you really completely understand what you're seeing.
Anyway even if you only want to focus on the betting line non-serious bettors may not realize how rare/suspect a line move like this really is.
1) The super strange line movement only happened for this game out of all the games in the tournament
2) A player like Macsed doesn't have good chances to make a deep tournament run and is likely to be tempted by his most profitable option: matchfixing. He also wasn't required to lose the series so he has nothing to lose by dropping a game in the series for his partner in crime. He still has chances to do something in the tournament after that.
3) A line movement like this can literally only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on Seventy to win the game.
4) Who would bet a huge sum of money on exactly the correct game at huge underdog odds on a player who is so outclassed it's silly? That is, unless they knew it was prearranged?
5) Such drastic line moves are very rare because it basically only happens when someone knows 100% for sure who is going to win before it even begins
Combine all this with the outrageous events precisely pointed out by BeastyQT (who is a very strong former professional player) and we have more than enough of a fundamental base to justify doing something about this.
I agree 100% I am thoroughly convinced macsed took part in match fixing. as i stated, the replay and the betting line changes independently were enough to raise suspicion but when taken together we can see there is no coincidence. lifetime ban worthy for sure
On March 15 2019 03:36 Starcloud wrote: Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
The one consolation I guess, when somebody is this bad at throwing a game, it can safely be assumed that he hasnt been doing this for long, probably a first, fumbled attempt
not much of a consolation. if you botch your first attempted rape the judge won't be so lenient-- "he's not a great rapist so i'l reduce the sentence! and he's a first time offender! community service!"
On March 15 2019 03:36 Starcloud wrote: Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
The one consolation I guess, when somebody is this bad at throwing a game, it can safely be assumed that he hasnt been doing this for long, probably a first, fumbled attempt
I have to point out that might actually be a mistaken assumption. I mean we are talking GM trying to lose against a diamond player, it is much easier to throw smoothly against an actual good player because you don't "need" to play stupid stupid to lose.
On March 15 2019 03:36 Starcloud wrote: Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
The one consolation I guess, when somebody is this bad at throwing a game, it can safely be assumed that he hasnt been doing this for long, probably a first, fumbled attempt
I have to point out that might actually be a mistaken assumption. I mean we are talking GM trying to lose against a diamond player, it is much easier to throw smoothly against an actual good player because you don't "need" to play stupid stupid to lose.
yes i think the most damning evidence is the 3 cannon placements to make the wall after the first one didn't work. and he knew the first one wouldn't work. its a damn disgrace it's the equivalent of a qb just throwing the ball to the other team over and over again and saying 'my arm hurt drrr'
On March 15 2019 04:46 NinjaNight wrote: Some people just can't see the truth if it slaps them in the face.
i appreciate you dedicating the time to investigate this. now, in my opinion, the only people defending macsed are delusional or misinformed. he probably figured this was his last tournament anyway. i don't think we will hear from him again
On March 15 2019 05:18 oXoCube wrote: Clear and obvious fixing.
It's an attempt so amateur hour that it's fairly shocking he thought he would get away with it.
i think he was counting on the game not being streamed and that no one would look into the other player's history
If there weren't a few people betting on this specific match, I doubt it would have been noticed even though it was streamed. It seems like an unlikely match to attract bets or attention to begin with.
On March 15 2019 05:18 oXoCube wrote: Clear and obvious fixing.
It's an attempt so amateur hour that it's fairly shocking he thought he would get away with it.
i think he was counting on the game not being streamed and that no one would look into the other player's history
If there weren't a few people betting on this specific match, I doubt it would have been noticed even though it was streamed. It seems like an unlikely match to attract bets or attention to begin with.
yeah. he should have known that if the fix was on more eyes would be on this match. seems like the word of the fix got out and a lot of people were in the know. that or he had multiple accounts bet against himself. idk why but the only thing i love more than esports is esports controversy.
"but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand" Ah yes, the classic gasless expand build in PvP, now I understand how he fell for it.
On March 15 2019 06:27 Charoisaur wrote: "but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand" Ah yes, the classic gasless expand build in PvP, now I understand how he fell for it.
Lmao, yes, even this is solid evidence that he's playing dumb. Anyone who believes a professional SC2 player can actually think in such a dumb way has a poor understanding of this game and has definitely not played it at a high level.
I don't think I've ever seen someone directly arguing that Macsed is innocent. I've only seen people saying in game evidence shouldn't count, but those people are still dead wrong.
The unanimous consensus is that he is guilty. The problem we have to solve is that some people argue that we don't have enough evidence yet. The reality is we have more than enough. BeastyQT took one look at that game and said there's no way he isn't matchfixing. It's beyond reasonable doubt when combined with the betting line evidence.
I would actually be defending Macsed instead of going after him if the evidence wasn't so strongly against his case here. I had no problem with him prior to this incident.
There seems to be a contradiction between Macsed's statement and WESG admin VanCaspel.
Macsed said that he was tricked by the single gateway at main and that rail taught Seventy91 this build. But VanCaspel is saying that Senventy91 told him that he built this gateway by accident.
On March 15 2019 06:42 unrev wrote: There seems to be a contradiction between Macsed's statement and WESG admin VanCaspel.
Macsed said that he was tricked by the single gateway at main and that rail taught Seventy91 this build. But VanCaspel is saying that Senventy91 told him that he built this gateway by accident.
I'd imagine macsed got "told" that rail showed the build to seventy91 without the information that the gateway was a mistake.
1. The accusations of matchfixing are life-altering and not to be thrown around lightly. Significant evidence is necessary to prove the existence of matchfixing. Just so we're on the same page about the gravity of the situation.
2. The changing of the betting lines is notable in degree, but not necessarily in amount. At first I thought maybe it wouldn't take a very large bet in order to change the betting lines that much (since, as others have said, this is one match out of many). But then I realized the amount is essentially immaterial when it comes to motive: a famous case is when Dota 2 player Solo threw a tournament game because he bet $322 against his team.
3. After reviewing the game, it is extremely odd to me that Pinnacle did not invalidate the bets. The events of this game are beyond suspicious. The cannon wall and pulling away the Probes that were about to kill both invading Zealots are just extremely incriminating examples. A Bronze player might do the former -- maybe -- but nobody, absolutely nobody would do the latter.
4. On the topic of MMR, I don't know exactly what 2000 MMR translates to in terms of win probability, but using the old 315 = 75 wins out of 100 games marker, 2000 would be what... 99%? 99.9%? Extremely improbable.
5. Confirmation bias exists. It is much easier to see suspicious behavior when you are looking for it. I'm just stating this as fact for the sake of general awareness, not relating it affirmatively or negatively to this instance. We should all just keep that in mind during discussions like this.
On March 15 2019 08:05 Excalibur_Z wrote:4. On the topic of MMR, I don't know exactly what 2000 MMR translates to in terms of win probability, but using the old 315 = 75 wins out of 100 games marker, 2000 would be what... 99%? 99.9%? Extremely improbable.
If that metric is correct, -315 means 0.25 win rate, so -1890 means 0.25^6 win rate (approximately 0.02%). I'm not sure MMR is multiplicative that way but that should be the ballpark idea.
On March 15 2019 06:27 Charoisaur wrote: "but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand" Ah yes, the classic gasless expand build in PvP, now I understand how he fell for it.
Lmao, yes, even this is solid evidence that he's playing dumb. Anyone who believes a professional SC2 player can actually think in such a dumb way has a poor understanding of this game and has definitely not played it at a high level.
I don't think I've ever seen someone directly arguing that Macsed is innocent. I've only seen people saying in game evidence shouldn't count, but those people are still dead wrong.
The unanimous consensus is that he is guilty. The problem we have to solve is that some people argue that we don't have enough evidence yet. The reality is we have more than enough. BeastyQT took one look at that game and said there's no way he isn't matchfixing. It's beyond reasonable doubt when combined with the betting line evidence.
I would actually be defending Macsed instead of going after him if the evidence wasn't so strongly against his case here. I had no problem with him prior to this incident.
So it seems you are investigator, police, lawyer and judge all in one person ? YOU don´t have anything to solve or any evidence to find. I´m not saying he did matchfix, nor am i saying he did not, but I´m pretty sure it is rather irrelevant what you personally think about all of this. If this is really a thing, then there will be some guys taking care of this, just like it happened with the ladder qualifiers some months ago. I find it absolutely okay when you or anyone else speculates and argues about this, but saying that "the unanimous consensus is that he is guilty" is not right, and it´s not okay. That is just a typical internet witchhunt of the lowest calibre possible.
On March 15 2019 08:05 Excalibur_Z wrote: 1. The accusations of matchfixing are life-altering and not to be thrown around lightly. Significant evidence is necessary to prove the existence of matchfixing. Just so we're on the same page about the gravity of the situation. .
I think most of the people posting here know that even allegations of match fixing are extremely serious and are not to be taken lightly. the only reason i would post here is because the situation is so clear-cut and obvious. this isn't a 15 year old mkp losing his cool; macsed is a grown ass man who threw a match and no one would say so if it weren't so blatant
On March 15 2019 08:05 Excalibur_Z wrote: 1. The accusations of matchfixing are life-altering and not to be thrown around lightly. Significant evidence is necessary to prove the existence of matchfixing. Just so we're on the same page about the gravity of the situation. .
I think most of the people posting here know that even allegations of match fixing are extremely serious and are not to be taken lightly. the only reason i would post here is because the situation is so clear-cut and obvious. this isn't a 15 year old mkp losing his cool; macsed is a grown ass man who threw a match and no one would say so if it weren't so blatant
I know, it's just important to stipulate in order to alleviate bandwagoning. I know you and many others in this thread have been arguing in good faith and citing proper examples.
On March 15 2019 06:27 Charoisaur wrote: "but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand" Ah yes, the classic gasless expand build in PvP, now I understand how he fell for it.
Lmao, yes, even this is solid evidence that he's playing dumb. Anyone who believes a professional SC2 player can actually think in such a dumb way has a poor understanding of this game and has definitely not played it at a high level.
I don't think I've ever seen someone directly arguing that Macsed is innocent. I've only seen people saying in game evidence shouldn't count, but those people are still dead wrong.
The unanimous consensus is that he is guilty. The problem we have to solve is that some people argue that we don't have enough evidence yet. The reality is we have more than enough. BeastyQT took one look at that game and said there's no way he isn't matchfixing. It's beyond reasonable doubt when combined with the betting line evidence.
I would actually be defending Macsed instead of going after him if the evidence wasn't so strongly against his case here. I had no problem with him prior to this incident.
So it seems you are investigator, police, lawyer and judge all in one person ? YOU don´t have anything to solve or any evidence to find. I´m not saying he did matchfix, nor am i saying he did not, but I´m pretty sure it is rather irrelevant what you personally think about all of this. If this is really a thing, then there will be some guys taking care of this, just like it happened with the ladder qualifiers some months ago. I find it absolutely okay when you or anyone else speculates and argues about this, but saying that "the unanimous consensus is that he is guilty" is not right, and it´s not okay. That is just a typical internet witchhunt of the lowest calibre possible.
You're way off base here. It doesn't matter what I am. What matters is the evidence that I present. It's no coincidence that a few hours ago BeastyQT made a video analyzing this that happened to agree with everything I have already been claiming here for the last few days. If you won't accept my statements, accept his. He's a very intelligent strong former professional player.
I say the unanimous consensus is that he is guilty because I have literally read every thread on every forum I'm aware of about this issue and I have yet to see a single person claim that he is innocent. There are many who claim he is guilty. However it's fine if you want to disagree with that because I can't see absolutely everything that is said about this match.
Once again I wouldn't mind having my role reversed and being the only person defending Macsed's innocence if I wasn't nearly 100% sure he is matchfixing. I had no problem with the guy and things like this can only hurt the scene which I do not want, but integrity comes first.
On March 15 2019 08:05 Excalibur_Z wrote: 1. The accusations of matchfixing are life-altering and not to be thrown around lightly. Significant evidence is necessary to prove the existence of matchfixing. Just so we're on the same page about the gravity of the situation.
2. The changing of the betting lines is notable in degree, but not necessarily in amount. At first I thought maybe it wouldn't take a very large bet in order to change the betting lines that much (since, as others have said, this is one match out of many). But then I realized the amount is essentially immaterial when it comes to motive: a famous case is when Dota 2 player Solo threw a tournament game because he bet $322 against his team.
3. After reviewing the game, it is extremely odd to me that Pinnacle did not invalidate the bets. The events of this game are beyond suspicious. The cannon wall and pulling away the Probes that were about to kill both invading Zealots are just extremely incriminating examples. A Bronze player might do the former -- maybe -- but nobody, absolutely nobody would do the latter.
4. On the topic of MMR, I don't know exactly what 2000 MMR translates to in terms of win probability, but using the old 315 = 75 wins out of 100 games marker, 2000 would be what... 99%? 99.9%? Extremely improbable.
5. Confirmation bias exists. It is much easier to see suspicious behavior when you are looking for it. I'm just stating this as fact for the sake of general awareness, not relating it affirmatively or negatively to this instance. We should all just keep that in mind during discussions like this.
Great post. The only thing I'd disagree with is the amount bet not being relevant. It's relevant because the logical deduction is that only a person who knows the match is prearranged would bet a huge amount of money on a player who is at such a massive skill disadvantage. Maybe you meant something else?
Not sure if Macsed was matching-fixing but from what I know about this player, he pretty much goes all in early game every time and he sux at microing his units/multiple pronged attacks, how did he get to 6000 MMR in the first place? Am I missing something?
3. After reviewing the game, it is extremely odd to me that Pinnacle did not invalidate the bets. The events of this game are beyond suspicious. The cannon wall and pulling away the Probes that were about to kill both invading Zealots are just extremely incriminating examples. A Bronze player might do the former -- maybe -- but nobody, absolutely nobody would do the latter.
What happened in the game doesn't affect Pinnacle voiding bets or not. Nobody at Pinnacle watched the game. When a booker voids a bet, it's done because of betting patterns. There's couple of things the booker looks at (and these are automated by triggers):
1. Who placed the bets. This is the most important one. If it was done by regular bettors that have been using the site for a long time and often bet against the lines, it's not suspect. Low level matchfixers usually are pretty dumb and just create dummy accounts for the exact event and place bets on the games. That's extremely suspect and always a clear sign of faul play. Often they even operate several accounts from the same IP address.
2. Line movements. When and how fast did the line move, did some new information come out just then? Like if Messi breaks his leg 10mins before a Barcelona game, the odds shift as soon as the information gets out. But most importantly, how much does the line move, does it go to beyond absurd figures. The more well known the players (or teams) are, the less the lines can move, without new information.
My initial guess what happened is that the information about MacSeD throwing the game leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers. The real fixers place bets mostly on illegal gambling sites in China. But as the information leaked, some more regular bettors used the information on Pinnacle. That's why the lines moved slower and didn't raise the alarm bells.
There's even a good possibility that regular outsider bettors realized from the lines themselves that a fixing is happening and joined the betting. It's sort of like investing in a pyramid scheme knowing it's a pyramid scheme, but that you're one of the first and will get your money back, unlike others who lose.
My 2 cents from being in the industry for 10+ years.
edit: edited because the line was more confusing the helpful.
On March 15 2019 08:39 cpower wrote: Not sure if Macsed was matching-fixing but from what I know about this player, he pretty much goes all in early game every time and he sux at microing his units/multiple pronged attacks, how did he get to 6000 MMR in the first place? Am I missing something?
he is the most notable chinese player at the moment. probably the best chinese protoss since LoveTT. the level of suckage at microing things goes beyond the norm here. it's not like he was playing against sOs. he was playing against a normal/hard AI in single player and making those mistakes.
On March 15 2019 08:05 Excalibur_Z wrote: 1. The accusations of matchfixing are life-altering and not to be thrown around lightly. Significant evidence is necessary to prove the existence of matchfixing. Just so we're on the same page about the gravity of the situation.
2. The changing of the betting lines is notable in degree, but not necessarily in amount. At first I thought maybe it wouldn't take a very large bet in order to change the betting lines that much (since, as others have said, this is one match out of many). But then I realized the amount is essentially immaterial when it comes to motive: a famous case is when Dota 2 player Solo threw a tournament game because he bet $322 against his team.
3. After reviewing the game, it is extremely odd to me that Pinnacle did not invalidate the bets. The events of this game are beyond suspicious. The cannon wall and pulling away the Probes that were about to kill both invading Zealots are just extremely incriminating examples. A Bronze player might do the former -- maybe -- but nobody, absolutely nobody would do the latter.
4. On the topic of MMR, I don't know exactly what 2000 MMR translates to in terms of win probability, but using the old 315 = 75 wins out of 100 games marker, 2000 would be what... 99%? 99.9%? Extremely improbable.
5. Confirmation bias exists. It is much easier to see suspicious behavior when you are looking for it. I'm just stating this as fact for the sake of general awareness, not relating it affirmatively or negatively to this instance. We should all just keep that in mind during discussions like this.
Great post. The only thing I'd disagree with is the amount bet not being relevant. It's relevant because the logical deduction is that only a person who knows the match is prearranged would bet a huge amount of money on a player who is at such a massive skill disadvantage. Maybe you meant something else?
I meant just from a motive point of view. If there is such a thing as a "sure bet" for a person, then that person will place the bet. I'm actually of two minds on it. You would want to bet high to maximize your return, but not high enough to arouse suspicion and void the bet. In the Solo example I gave, $322 certainly isn't life-changing money, but I don't know whether he simply couldn't afford a larger bet or if he chose a smallish bet to try and avoid suspicion. In any case, he was caught, so in that context throwing your career away for $322 sounds hilariously irresponsible.
3. After reviewing the game, it is extremely odd to me that Pinnacle did not invalidate the bets. The events of this game are beyond suspicious. The cannon wall and pulling away the Probes that were about to kill both invading Zealots are just extremely incriminating examples. A Bronze player might do the former -- maybe -- but nobody, absolutely nobody would do the latter.
What happened in the game doesn't affect Pinnacle voiding bets or not. Nobody at Pinnacle watched the game. When a booker voids a bet, it's done because of betting patterns. There's couple of things the booker looks at (and these are automated by triggers):
1. Who placed the bets. This is the most important one. If it was done by regular bettors that have been using the site for a long time and often bet against the lines, it's not suspect. Low level matchfixers usually are pretty dumb and just create dummy accounts for the exact event and place bets on the games. That's extremely suspect and always a clear sign of faul play. Often they even operate several accounts from the same IP address.
2. Line movements. When and how fast did the line move, did some new information come out just then? Like if Messi breaks his leg 10mins before a Barcelona game, the odds shift as soon as the information gets out. But most importantly, how much does the line move, does it go to beyond absurd figures. The more well known the players (or teams) are, the less the lines can move, without new information.
My initial guess what happened is that the information about MacSeD throwing the game leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers. The real fixers place bets mostly on illegal gambling sites in China. But as the information leaked, some more regular bettors used the information on Pinnacle. That's why the lines moved slower and didn't raise the alarm bells.
There's even a good possibility that regular outsider bettors realized from the lines themselves that a fixing is happening and joined the betting. It's sort of like investing in a pyramid scheme knowing it's a pyramid scheme, but that you're one of the first and will get your money back, unlike others who lose.
My 2 cents from being in the industry for 10+ years.
edit: edited because the line was more confusing the helpful.
Thanks for the info! I did have a feeling large swings trigger automated actions, but I also assumed there was some degree of manual review for suspicious cases after the fact. Maybe those only happen when the stakes are really high? Really great point about the identity of the bettor and their betting history. I never thought about the pyramid scheme angle, but it's logical. Good post! I saw your other post earlier in the thread outlining some of this stuff. Really cool to know.
I watched that beastyqt video which basically broke down game 2 showing all his mistakes. There were some points that I missed when I just watched the first time like the placement of the first pylon or he didn't cancel the first cannon in his main. I honestly can't argue against some of that stuff, and then seeing him go from that to playing like a champ in game 3 was just weird. Beastyqt mentioned his probe micro and how he was stutter-stepping yet he lost 2 probes to a single zealot in game 2, walled with a cannon twice and left 2 red hp zealots alive right as they were about to die.
Macsed's explanation also isn't really helping his case imo. I am really curious now to see what comes of this. Beastyqt seemed really sure that he was matchfixing considering that he's a GM player with 8 year experience, but was careful about saying it. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
On March 15 2019 08:39 cpower wrote: Not sure if Macsed was matching-fixing but from what I know about this player, he pretty much goes all in early game every time and he sux at microing his units/multiple pronged attacks, how did he get to 6000 MMR in the first place? Am I missing something?
he is the most notable chinese player at the moment. probably the best chinese protoss since LoveTT. the level of suckage at microing things goes beyond the norm here. it's not like he was playing against sOs. he was playing against a normal/hard AI in single player and making those mistakes.
according to aligulac, he is #8 in China and outside of top 100 non-korean. He's pretty underwhelming to me for someone who has 6000 MMR... http://aligulac.com/players/145-MacSed/
On March 15 2019 08:05 Excalibur_Z wrote: 1. The accusations of matchfixing are life-altering and not to be thrown around lightly. Significant evidence is necessary to prove the existence of matchfixing. Just so we're on the same page about the gravity of the situation.
2. The changing of the betting lines is notable in degree, but not necessarily in amount. At first I thought maybe it wouldn't take a very large bet in order to change the betting lines that much (since, as others have said, this is one match out of many). But then I realized the amount is essentially immaterial when it comes to motive: a famous case is when Dota 2 player Solo threw a tournament game because he bet $322 against his team.
3. After reviewing the game, it is extremely odd to me that Pinnacle did not invalidate the bets. The events of this game are beyond suspicious. The cannon wall and pulling away the Probes that were about to kill both invading Zealots are just extremely incriminating examples. A Bronze player might do the former -- maybe -- but nobody, absolutely nobody would do the latter.
4. On the topic of MMR, I don't know exactly what 2000 MMR translates to in terms of win probability, but using the old 315 = 75 wins out of 100 games marker, 2000 would be what... 99%? 99.9%? Extremely improbable.
5. Confirmation bias exists. It is much easier to see suspicious behavior when you are looking for it. I'm just stating this as fact for the sake of general awareness, not relating it affirmatively or negatively to this instance. We should all just keep that in mind during discussions like this.
Great post. The only thing I'd disagree with is the amount bet not being relevant. It's relevant because the logical deduction is that only a person who knows the match is prearranged would bet a huge amount of money on a player who is at such a massive skill disadvantage. Maybe you meant something else?
I meant just from a motive point of view. If there is such a thing as a "sure bet" for a person, then that person will place the bet. I'm actually of two minds on it. You would want to bet high to maximize your return, but not high enough to arouse suspicion and void the bet. In the Solo example I gave, $322 certainly isn't life-changing money, but I don't know whether he simply couldn't afford a larger bet or if he chose a smallish bet to try and avoid suspicion. In any case, he was caught, so in that context throwing your career away for $322 sounds hilariously irresponsible.
3. After reviewing the game, it is extremely odd to me that Pinnacle did not invalidate the bets. The events of this game are beyond suspicious. The cannon wall and pulling away the Probes that were about to kill both invading Zealots are just extremely incriminating examples. A Bronze player might do the former -- maybe -- but nobody, absolutely nobody would do the latter.
What happened in the game doesn't affect Pinnacle voiding bets or not. Nobody at Pinnacle watched the game. When a booker voids a bet, it's done because of betting patterns. There's couple of things the booker looks at (and these are automated by triggers):
1. Who placed the bets. This is the most important one. If it was done by regular bettors that have been using the site for a long time and often bet against the lines, it's not suspect. Low level matchfixers usually are pretty dumb and just create dummy accounts for the exact event and place bets on the games. That's extremely suspect and always a clear sign of faul play. Often they even operate several accounts from the same IP address.
2. Line movements. When and how fast did the line move, did some new information come out just then? Like if Messi breaks his leg 10mins before a Barcelona game, the odds shift as soon as the information gets out. But most importantly, how much does the line move, does it go to beyond absurd figures. The more well known the players (or teams) are, the less the lines can move, without new information.
My initial guess what happened is that the information about MacSeD throwing the game leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers. The real fixers place bets mostly on illegal gambling sites in China. But as the information leaked, some more regular bettors used the information on Pinnacle. That's why the lines moved slower and didn't raise the alarm bells.
There's even a good possibility that regular outsider bettors realized from the lines themselves that a fixing is happening and joined the betting. It's sort of like investing in a pyramid scheme knowing it's a pyramid scheme, but that you're one of the first and will get your money back, unlike others who lose.
My 2 cents from being in the industry for 10+ years.
edit: edited because the line was more confusing the helpful.
Thanks for the info! I did have a feeling large swings trigger automated actions, but I also assumed there was some degree of manual review for suspicious cases after the fact. Maybe those only happen when the stakes are really high? Really great point about the identity of the bettor and their betting history. I never thought about the pyramid scheme angle, but it's logical. Good post! I saw your other post earlier in the thread outlining some of this stuff. Really cool to know.
You're correct about the manual review. That's of course possible and does happen, but that takes manpower and work so it's done usually in cases where the stakes are high. I read that Wax emailed them and got reply. I believe the support person just looked at the game from their system and there was no automatic triggers set. I don't believe they really went into it deeper.
The scam was unveiled a year later. Finnish police interrogated 460 persons involving the scandal. Most of them were never charged due to lack of evidence or for the reason that they were only lucky gamblers who had a hint on the results of meaningless games.
The information about the fix leaked and tons of people took advantage of it. Not everyone knew about it being 100% fix, but rumours spread easily the betting lines confirmed it for them.
On March 15 2019 08:02 AusProbe wrote: Rail didn't tell him to build the gateway in his base, that was seventy91's idea/mistake to try and trick macsed.
Source: talking to both of them over breakfast.
Also in general, the pro Protoss players who have watched the replay at the venue seem to all think it wasnt match fixing.
What are you protoss players' reasons here? There's nothing natural about the emergency response to the surprise zealot.
The clicks and action sequence in this vod is some of the ugliest stuff I've seen from a high gm/pro player, I would never imagine anyone even on their darkest and most tilted day with a fever and a hangover playing like this.
Also the whole magically blasting through game 3 like a boss as if nothing happened thing..
On March 15 2019 08:02 AusProbe wrote: Rail didn't tell him to build the gateway in his base, that was seventy91's idea/mistake to try and trick macsed.
Source: talking to both of them over breakfast.
Also in general, the pro Protoss players who have watched the replay at the venue seem to all think it wasnt match fixing.
What are you protoss players' reasons here? There's nothing natural about the emergency response to the surprise zealot.
The clicks and action sequence in this vod is some of the ugliest stuff I've seen from a high gm/pro player, I would never imagine anyone even on their darkest and most tilted day with a fever and a hangover playing like this to then magically blast through game 3 like a boss as if nothing happened.
Thank god. Snute arrives with the great voice of reason. *bows* =P
That's exactly right. Having played protoss at a masters level for a long time I can say with 100% certainty I would never execute a cannon rush as poorly as Macsed did in this game under tournament conditions unless I was trying to lose. Not even close.
As if the "mistake" of walling with a gateway plus cannon when he could fill the gap with a gateway wasn't bad enough he then continually replaced that dead cannon with another cannon (which costs 150 like a gateway) instead of a gateway. He didn't even bother to cancel the cannons.
That alone is proof he was intentionally helping the zealots reach his mineral line over and over. And then he even surrounded the 2 zealots and let them go free at the last second when they were one more probe hit away from dying.
He purposefully made Seventy win in the only way he possibly could by using a super weak constructing cannon as part of the wall so Seventy could always get his zealots into the main base and kill his probes.
A cannon rush and early scout is the perfect build order win against proxy zealot. You simply wall your ramp with 2 pylons 1 gateway and place a cannon behind them and laugh as the opponent can't do anything. You don't use a cannon in the wall over and over unless you're begging him to come in and kill your base. You also don't suddenly build the wall super late when you scouted his lack of gasses a long time ago.
This is what the truth looks like and everyone would be very wise to listen up.
It's funny to me that a lot of posters (allegedly or actually) close to the situtation, when giving a statement on this are always trying to involve some other people, as if to justify that maybe some insight escaped that MacSed would be playing like crap or jokingly. Like somehow this information was made known to a considerable amount of people (who might have placed bets, of course). Example of this is MacSed saying "Rail gave him this build, very good build that I wasn't expecting at all hurrdurr". Other example is post #230 from a new Chinese user, mentioning "MacSed's Chinese friends" pressuring him to win quickly. Another post #314 saying that Rail wasn't actually the one who came up with the build, but some other guy from a Whatsapp group of something. Finally post #365 where numerous but unnamed "pro Protoss players" at the venue thought this wasn't match fixing after viewing the replay.
There is nothing there, for sure, but that would actually be a very smart defense against match fixing allegations. Slowly but surely spreading out confusion and involving an increasing amount of random names close to the situation to make it seem like some inside information leaked in some way. This is not what's happening here of course, just thought it would be a "neat" defense. I do find very weird to involve anyone on the side of Seventy91, his build was irrelevant because the game was winnable several times over for MacSed, who cares who gave him the build... Really seems like a desperate version of my idea.
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority? Did you watch how carefully Artosis, Incontrol, Feardragon, and Tempo treated this subject on the Pylon Show?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
I personally agree, by the way, that what we've seen so far from Macsed looks like matchfixing.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
Then Macsed goes free.
And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.
Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.
"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
Then Macsed goes free.
And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.
Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.
"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."
- Benjamin Franklin
That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
Then Macsed goes free.
And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.
Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.
"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."
- Benjamin Franklin
That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.
It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.
And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
Then Macsed goes free.
And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.
Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.
"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."
- Benjamin Franklin
That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.
It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.
And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.
It's not quite direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B, but it's about as close as you're ever going to get other than perhaps his own probes killing his nexus which I suppose you could also argue away by saying he misclicked and then had a heart attack and couldn't do anything or whatever stupid excuse you like.
The fact of the matter is we're never going to get anywhere on the issue if we refuse to accept such a high level of evidence. Our only hope then is rare situations like Life where the police launch their own huge investigation and pursue it persistantly for a long time until they uncover something.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
Then Macsed goes free.
And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.
Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.
"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."
- Benjamin Franklin
That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.
It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.
And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.
It's not quite direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B, but it's about as close as you're ever going to get other than perhaps his own probes killing his nexus which I suppose you could also argue away by saying he misclicked and then had a heart attack and couldn't do anything.
The fact of the matter is we're never going to get anywhere on the issue if we refuse to accept such a high level of evidence. Our only hope then is rare situations like Life where the police launch their own huge investigation and pursue it persistantly for a long time until they uncover something.
"Everyone charged with a penal offence has the right to be presumed innocent until proved guilty according to law in a public trial at which he has had all the guarantees necessary for his defence."
If you want to know why society has chosen to accept that price, I suggest you start with this short paper.
"The maxim,' innocent until proven guilty' was bom in the late thirteenth century, preserved in the universal jurisprudence of the lus commune, employed in the defense of marginalized defendants, Jews, heretics, and witches, in the early modem period, and finally deployed as a powerful argument against torture in the sixteenth, seventeenth, and eighteenth centuries."
As you admitted that can be sufficient to pass the standard of proof. So hopefully those with the power will completely understand these things or perhaps we need a new way to deal with things like this.
My honest opinion about matchfixing and gambling, not related to the discussion here, just in general:
I don't understand why progamers accuse matchfixing but not so much on gambling. Here's my thought: I understand gambling on horse racing, dogfighting, cockfighting etc. People believe they have good judgement on the performance of these animals. Well, they are still managed by human beings after all but at least the animals themselves are trying their best not to get killed in the ring. But gambling on human beings? How do you feel when someone's cheering for you and shouting:"Beat your opponent! Knock him down! I bet 1000 dollars on you!" like you are a dog or a horse? Well, you can ignore it like you don't understand what's happening, but someone inside the ring shows that they do have intelligence and decided to use this gambling system to make profit. Well, that hurts the viewers, but seriously, should we expect human beings to behave like animals? That just reminded me of a joke, or not a joke: The horrifying thing is not AI beats human in games. It is AI loses to humans deliberately. I know there are matchfixings in sports but I never really thought about it, I've stopped watching football/basketball/etc since I was 15 or so because it's mostly about muscles, not brains. And then I found strategy games which are more relevant to brains. Now that I think about it, I don't really blame the people in physical sports who don't mind the gambling on them - they are probably really proud of their muscle, and love to show off about it. But to someone who uses intelligence in their career - in my opinion, if they don't feel offended, they don't have dignity. I'm not saying I encourage matchfixing, I'm just saying it's natural human behavior based on the fact that there's gambling on them. The only way to stop it is to stop gambling - well that's difficult, because human are dumb in general. But at least we can start with make gambling on human beings illegal worldwide - because in my point of view they just see the players like animals.
I never gambled before, or bought a lottery. Nowadays mathematics, statistics and probability theories on gambling is so well understood, even experts are most likely to lose everything in a casino. So those gamblers turn to the games by humans - and believe they can make profit on it. I say, you deserve to lose, you deserves to lose all your money just like gambling in a casino or on horse racing. Matchfixing or not, you deserve to lose anyways, and matchfixing happens only because of your gambling, and people who only want to enjoy the games instead of making profit from it are hurt the most.
But that's just words and opinions, deep inside people are still controlled by their animal instincts and reactions. Nothing would change in - well, within my lifespan, probably. I should just stop thinking about it and concentrate on better things that are worth the time.
I think this should be a separate thread but 1 thread on this topic is probably enough for this forum. I'll save it as a record of my thoughts and post it somewhere else in the future, maybe after I make my own blog.
On March 15 2019 13:26 NinjaNight wrote: As you admitted that can be sufficient to pass the standard of proof. So hopefully those with the power will completely understand these things or perhaps we need a new way to deal with things like this.
I agree with you here. Thanks for keeping things civil.
On March 15 2019 13:26 NinjaNight wrote: As you admitted that can be sufficient to pass the standard of proof. So hopefully those with the power will completely understand these things or perhaps we need a new way to deal with things like this.
I agree with you here. Thanks for keeping things civil.
Yea, glad we could come to a nice conclusion there.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
Then Macsed goes free.
And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.
Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.
"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."
- Benjamin Franklin
That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.
It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.
And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.
It's not quite direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B, but it's about as close as you're ever going to get other than perhaps his own probes killing his nexus which I suppose you could also argue away by saying he misclicked and then had a heart attack and couldn't do anything or whatever stupid excuse you like.
The fact of the matter is we're never going to get anywhere on the issue if we refuse to accept such a high level of evidence. Our only hope then is rare situations like Life where the police launch their own huge investigation and pursue it persistantly for a long time until they uncover something.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
Then Macsed goes free.
And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.
Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.
"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."
- Benjamin Franklin
That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.
It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.
And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.
It's not quite direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B, but it's about as close as you're ever going to get other than perhaps his own probes killing his nexus which I suppose you could also argue away by saying he misclicked and then had a heart attack and couldn't do anything or whatever stupid excuse you like.
The fact of the matter is we're never going to get anywhere on the issue if we refuse to accept such a high level of evidence. Our only hope then is rare situations like Life where the police launch their own huge investigation and pursue it persistantly for a long time until they uncover something.
Hahaha... the hypothetical situation I was imagining was Macsed sending all his probes to attack his own nexus at the start of the game when nothing is happening. That situation happened because Impact misclicked 1 drone and didn't notice because he's involved in a very APM intensive macro game and that little drone blends in among all the mining drones.
That's super funny.
(I know you weren't arguing anything and were just bringing this up for fun)
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
Then Macsed goes free.
And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.
Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.
"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."
- Benjamin Franklin
That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.
It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.
And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.
It's not quite direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B, but it's about as close as you're ever going to get other than perhaps his own probes killing his nexus which I suppose you could also argue away by saying he misclicked and then had a heart attack and couldn't do anything or whatever stupid excuse you like.
The fact of the matter is we're never going to get anywhere on the issue if we refuse to accept such a high level of evidence. Our only hope then is rare situations like Life where the police launch their own huge investigation and pursue it persistantly for a long time until they uncover something.
Hahaha... the hypothetical situation I was imagining was Macsed sending all his probes to attack his own nexus at the start of the game when nothing is happening. That situation happened because Impact misclicked 1 drone and didn't notice because he's involved in a very APM intensive macro game and that little drone blends in among all the mining drones.
That's super funny.
(I know you weren't arguing anything and were just bringing this up for fun)
Exactly, just to add bit seasoning to the hot grill.
Interesting evidences It is obvious that the chinese player threw the game. There is no way he could have lost to this diamond player. I hope blizzard will do something about it.
I was following the conversation here and it seems that the community members (Powerfoe, NinjaNight, etc.) rushed to a conclusion. What shocked me was how several members here were determined that this was a match-fix with only circumstantial evidence. I feel that I might add a counter-argument given my knowledge of SC2 in China.
I follow SC2 discussions in China and browse TL occasionally, but never felt the urge to register an account to join the conversation. But the ignorance and racism shown here made me feel that I need to provide some additional "circumstantial evidence"
My argument is that it is very unlikely for MacSed to intentionally loose to Seventy91, considering: (1) how difficult it is for money flow-in and flow-out China, (2) such loss would be read by Chinese SC2 fans as an absolute joke and led to long-term online harassment, and (3) the game was playing on-site and broadcasted, and MacSed's dropping performance in recent games. Below are detailed explanations.
(1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
(2) Of course, let's image someone did bother to go through all of the hurdles and to pay MacSed, then the question is, will he match-fix and LOOSE to an unknown Siberia player? It is hard to believe given the culture of SC2 esport in China.
One notable feature about Chinese SC2 fans is that they tend to be very nationalistic (some of them are arguably as racist as Powerfoe and NinjaNight). For them, an established player loosing to a not well-regarded foreign player is simply unforgivable.
The most representative case of such nationalistic tendency occurred to Toodming, around 2 years ago, iAsonu felt he hit his limit and could not win against Korean/Euro players, he posted his thought online. Then, echoing his argument, TooDming made a similar argument, and suggesting that "pro-players should not be bounded too much by nationalistic zeal" and "why should Chinese players cared so much about winning against Korean players". This immediately got backlash from the Chinese fan base, and TooDming got the humiliating nickname "何赢韩“ (why to win Koreans). Since then, TooDming has been cursed by a substantial number of Chinese SC2 fans (we are talking about thousands), and such online bullying lasted until today.
So why did I mention TooDming's story. The point is, every Chinese player know that if he lost to an unknown foreign "chicken", he would be laughed at by Chinese SC2 fans FOREVER. Someone may argue that Chinese players involved in match-fix before, but if you think about the instances when foreign players involved. Most of the time, Chinese players cheated to "win", instead of "losing" a game.
Go back to MacSed's perspective, how much you think is enough to make him accept being humiliated by thousands of fans? In fact, many SC2 fans on China's forum have already begun to make laugh at MacSed for "being regarded not as a Chicken" on TL.
(3) This brings my third point: for people following SCBoy's streaming, MacSed had played with them for AutoChess and CS:Go for the last month, and earlier, he also thought to switch to be a streamer of Fortnite. His main income comes from streaming various games (not only SC2) and being part of the management team of the youth team sponsored by SCBoy. He is semi-retired.
Most Chinese fans thought his entrance into WESG as "lucky", and he himself was perhaps wishing he can just finish WESG matches without losing face. So, if you are going to pay him to match-fix with Seventy91, considering that would put his real income at risk, and the granted round of humiliation by thousands of Chinese SC2 fans, the amount has to be substantial (of course, our poor Powerfoe think $300 is enough for someone to take such risk). But again, if it is substantial (thousands of $), it would trigger China's banking monitor system and I don't think MacSed is that stupid.
To conclude, let's wait for the official investigation result. But again, what shocked me is how so many people jumped to conclusion so quickly, and just don't care about destroying MacSed's reputation.
My proposal, if MacSed turned out to be innocent, these witch-hunters should make apology and compensation to MacSed, as well as being banned from TL for life.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: I was following the conversation here and it seems that the community members (Powerfoe, NinjaNight, etc.) rushed to a conclusion. What shocked me was how several members here were determined that this was a match-fix with only circumstantial evidence. I feel that I might add a counter-argument given my knowledge of SC2 in China.
I follow SC2 discussions in China and browse TL occasionally, but never felt the urge to register an account to join the conversation. But the ignorance and racism shown here made me feel that I need to provide some additional "circumstantial evidence"
My argument is that it is very unlikely for MacSed to intentionally loose to Seventy91, considering: (1) how difficult it is for money flow-in and flow-out China, (2) such loss would be read by Chinese SC2 fans as an absolute joke and led to long-term online harassment, and (3) the game was playing on-site and broadcasted, and MacSed's dropping performance in recent games. Below are detailed explanations.
(1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
(2) Of course, let's image someone did bother to go through all of the hurdles and to pay MacSed, then the question is, will he match-fix and LOOSE to an unknown Siberia player? It is hard to believe given the culture of SC2 esport in China.
One notable feature about Chinese SC2 fans is that they tend to be very nationalistic (some of them are arguably as racist as Powerfoe and NinjaNight). For them, an established player loosing to a not well-regarded foreign player is simply unforgivable.
The most representative case of such nationalistic tendency occurred to Toodming, around 2 years ago, iAsonu felt he hit his limit and could not win against Korean/Euro players, he posted his thought online. Then, echoing his argument, TooDming made a similar argument, and suggesting that "pro-players should not be bounded too much by nationalistic zeal" and "why should Chinese players cared so much about winning against Korean players". This immediately got backlash from the Chinese fan base, and TooDming got the humiliating nickname "何赢韩“ (why to win Koreans). Since then, TooDming has been cursed by a substantial number of Chinese SC2 fans (we are talking about thousands), and such online bullying lasted until today.
So why did I mention TooDming's story. The point is, every Chinese player know that if he lost to an unknown foreign "chicken", he would be laughed at by Chinese SC2 fans FOREVER. Someone may argue that Chinese players involved in match-fix before, but if you think about the instances when foreign players involved. Most of the time, Chinese players cheated to "win", instead of "losing" a game.
Go back to MacSed's perspective, how much you think is enough to make him accept being humiliated by thousands of fans? In fact, many SC2 fans on China's forum have already begun to make laugh at MacSed for "being regarded not as a Chicken" on TL.
(3) This brings my third point: for people following SCBoy's streaming, MacSed had played with them for AutoChess and CS:Go for the last month, and earlier, he also thought to switch to be a streamer of Fortnite. His main income comes from streaming various games (not only SC2) and being part of the management team of the youth team sponsored by SCBoy. He is semi-retired.
Most Chinese fans thought his entrance into WESG as "lucky", and he himself was perhaps wishing he can just finish WESG matches without losing face. So, if you are going to pay him to match-fix with Seventy91, considering that would put his real income at risk, and the granted round of humiliation by thousands of Chinese SC2 fans, the amount has to be substantial (of course, our poor Powerfoe think $300 is enough for someone to take such risk). But again, if it is substantial (thousands of $), it would trigger China's banking monitor system and I don't think MacSed is that stupid.
To conclude, let's wait for the official investigation result. But again, what shocked me is how so many people jumped to conclusion so quickly, and just don't care about destroying MacSed's reputation.
My proposal, if MacSed turned out to be innocent, these witch-hunters should make apology and compensation to MacSed, as well as being banned from TL for life.
lol? 1 post coming in here demanding people be banned for life for commenting on a pretty obviously(though not certainly) fixed game. Whats shocking is you can defend someone who looks like they've never touched SC2, read the strategy guide in the 2nd game, then play a perfect game the one before and the one after. like seriously?
I feel like there's a bit of a logical disconnect.
It seems unlikely that MacSed is too smart to accidentally make the mistakes he made, but also so dumb that he would intentionally make them, when trying to pull off a match fix. Losing the two probes to a zealot was likely enough to throw the game. The cannon wall was certainly game over, and even if he had killed the initial two zealots with the probes, he would still lose. So MacSed is smart enough to be a world class SC2 player, but so stupid that he can't lose in a less awkward fashion. I think you're forgetting that there becomes a point where (if MacSed isn't cheating) he knows he has lost. His position is unrecoverable before at least half of the mistakes people are pointing out.
The betting line movement is far less significant if the bet attracted very little attention to begin with. And had MacSed won 2-0 you never would've heard of this. The primary motivator for the investigation is that a man gambled and lost.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority? Did you watch how carefully Artosis, Incontrol, Feardragon, and Tempo treated this subject on the Pylon Show?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
I personally agree, by the way, that what we've seen so far from Macsed looks like matchfixing.
I understand you are very passionate about the justice system but in this case the ones that are likely to make a statement on this is not the actualy police but the WESG organization and thats fine.
Great that you bring the pylon show into the discussion, and thanks for an easy link to follow too for those that hasn't seen it. Incontrol says a lot of things that I agree with and of course the bigger community figures takes greater care in how they position themselves in this situation than me for example. If I was on the pylon show as a known community figure I would not say the things I have posted in this thread. Here we discuss as smaller parts of a community, to think that everyone should tread with the same caution as community figures is unreasonable in my opinion.
I think that it is obvious and clear cut that Macsed is matchfixing and I think that if a player can matchfix this blattantly and get away with then starcraft 2 is in trouble. Just like what happened with the kespa matfixing scandal in sc2 these things easily escalate, if memory servers it was Yoda that got convinced to matcfix once and then continually threatened to keep doing it because otherwise the criminals would release evidence of his first matchfix. The criminals gets to earn a lot of money and if both the criminals and players consider the crime safe and unprovable it will only get more prevalent.
Also in regards to the pylon show, as I've posted before matchfixing does greater damage to the sport when it is known than if it is unknown. If the kespa controversy never got brought into light and no one got prosecuted maybe Kespa and proleague would still be with us today. These scandals hurt the sport and Artosis in particular has his entire income tied to the contiuation of starcraft 2 professional league contiuned existence. He has a personal interest in subduing these bad rumors and it would be safer for him if Macsed was freed no matter if he was actually guilty or not. Artosis himself said he wasn't comfortable taking about this and I understand why, he has a conflict of interest between his vested interesting starcraft 2 continued growth and succes and his role on the pylon show as a community figure speaking his mind. I really love Artosis, I mean nothing bad towards him I just think its important to consider when people whos income in tied to starcraft 2 that might also effect what they tell the community.
Edit:
On March 15 2019 17:57 JasonOfAeson wrote: I feel like there's a bit of a logical disconnect.
It seems unlikely that MacSed is too smart to accidentally make the mistakes he made, but also so dumb that he would intentionally make them, when trying to pull off a match fix. Losing the two probes to a zealot was likely enough to throw the game. The cannon wall was certainly game over, and even if he had killed the initial two zealots with the probes, he would still lose. So MacSed is smart enough to be a world class SC2 player, but so stupid that he can't lose in a less awkward fashion. I think you're forgetting that there becomes a point where (if MacSed isn't cheating) he knows he has lost. His position is unrecoverable before at least half of the mistakes people are pointing out.
The betting line movement is far less significant if the bet attracted very little attention to begin with. And had MacSed won 2-0 you never would've heard of this. The primary motivator for the investigation is that a man gambled and lost.
You are right if Macsed was playing a player on the GM level, actually if I was Macsed I would be worried if I could even throw the game. The player is diamond Macsed should eaily be able to win the game even if both his cannon rushing probes die.
On March 15 2019 17:11 arb wrote: lol? 1 post coming in here demanding people be banned for life for commenting on a pretty obviously(though not certainly) fixed game. Whats shocking is you can defend someone who looks like they've never touched SC2, read the strategy guide in the 2nd game, then play a perfect game the one before and the one after. like seriously?
Cause you've never played, or seen anyone else play, drastically below their skill ceiling? Also he explains why he only has one post and why he doesn't post on her usually, so why bother pointing it out?
"Pretty obviously" vs. "Not certainly" -- which is it, pal. Is it obvious or uncertain? You literally ignored nine tenths of the man's post, that gave some context into MacSed's situation.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: I was following the conversation here and it seems that the community members (Powerfoe, NinjaNight, etc.) rushed to a conclusion. What shocked me was how several members here were determined that this was a match-fix with only circumstantial evidence. I feel that I might add a counter-argument given my knowledge of SC2 in China.
I follow SC2 discussions in China and browse TL occasionally, but never felt the urge to register an account to join the conversation. But the ignorance and racism shown here made me feel that I need to provide some additional "circumstantial evidence"
My argument is that it is very unlikely for MacSed to intentionally loose to Seventy91, considering: (1) how difficult it is for money flow-in and flow-out China, (2) such loss would be read by Chinese SC2 fans as an absolute joke and led to long-term online harassment, and (3) the game was playing on-site and broadcasted, and MacSed's dropping performance in recent games. Below are detailed explanations.
(1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
(2) Of course, let's image someone did bother to go through all of the hurdles and to pay MacSed, then the question is, will he match-fix and LOOSE to an unknown Siberia player? It is hard to believe given the culture of SC2 esport in China.
One notable feature about Chinese SC2 fans is that they tend to be very nationalistic (some of them are arguably as racist as Powerfoe and NinjaNight). For them, an established player loosing to a not well-regarded foreign player is simply unforgivable.
The most representative case of such nationalistic tendency occurred to Toodming, around 2 years ago, iAsonu felt he hit his limit and could not win against Korean/Euro players, he posted his thought online. Then, echoing his argument, TooDming made a similar argument, and suggesting that "pro-players should not be bounded too much by nationalistic zeal" and "why should Chinese players cared so much about winning against Korean players". This immediately got backlash from the Chinese fan base, and TooDming got the humiliating nickname "何赢韩“ (why to win Koreans). Since then, TooDming has been cursed by a substantial number of Chinese SC2 fans (we are talking about thousands), and such online bullying lasted until today.
So why did I mention TooDming's story. The point is, every Chinese player know that if he lost to an unknown foreign "chicken", he would be laughed at by Chinese SC2 fans FOREVER. Someone may argue that Chinese players involved in match-fix before, but if you think about the instances when foreign players involved. Most of the time, Chinese players cheated to "win", instead of "losing" a game.
Go back to MacSed's perspective, how much you think is enough to make him accept being humiliated by thousands of fans? In fact, many SC2 fans on China's forum have already begun to make laugh at MacSed for "being regarded not as a Chicken" on TL.
(3) This brings my third point: for people following SCBoy's streaming, MacSed had played with them for AutoChess and CS:Go for the last month, and earlier, he also thought to switch to be a streamer of Fortnite. His main income comes from streaming various games (not only SC2) and being part of the management team of the youth team sponsored by SCBoy. He is semi-retired.
Most Chinese fans thought his entrance into WESG as "lucky", and he himself was perhaps wishing he can just finish WESG matches without losing face. So, if you are going to pay him to match-fix with Seventy91, considering that would put his real income at risk, and the granted round of humiliation by thousands of Chinese SC2 fans, the amount has to be substantial (of course, our poor Powerfoe think $300 is enough for someone to take such risk). But again, if it is substantial (thousands of $), it would trigger China's banking monitor system and I don't think MacSed is that stupid.
To conclude, let's wait for the official investigation result. But again, what shocked me is how so many people jumped to conclusion so quickly, and just don't care about destroying MacSed's reputation.
My proposal, if MacSed turned out to be innocent, these witch-hunters should make apology and compensation to MacSed, as well as being banned from TL for life.
lol? 1 post coming in here demanding people be banned for life for commenting on a pretty obviously(though not certainly) fixed game. Whats shocking is you can defend someone who looks like they've never touched SC2, read the strategy guide in the 2nd game, then play a perfect game the one before and the one after. like seriously?
If someone with only 1 post cannot made demand for "banning someone from TL for life". Then why a bunch of dudes with only the VOD to make the conclusion that someone is "match-fix" and destroying a semi-retired player's reputation, and call him to be banned for life? The accusations in the thread are beyond decent discussions, and basically harsh blames.
You may argue that the game is weird and as far as we know, it is investigated. My point, again, is that some many people here rush to the conclusion too quickly, which at least shows arrogance.
Again, my main argument is, let's wait for the result from the formal investigation. But my sense told me that MacSed would be too stupid to intentionally lose to an unknown foreign player, given the humiliation and online harassment he knew would come with such consequence.
One of the "punishment" that Chinese SC2 fans like to make laugh on someone who lose to unknown foreign players (it could be MacSed versus Seventy91, or Cloudy versus unknown players from Southeast Asia) is to demand them do "drag queen" dance, consider that... I simply don't believe that MacSed would bother to do match-fix for hundreds of dollars... Also, Larger amount of transition would be caught by the bank monitoring system too...
i have to say, im a protoss player with MMR roughly 3.8k ish (high plat/low diamond) will absolutely not repeating same mistake. 3 times no cancel cannon, wall using cannon twice? normal players will surely put other building to try block off the ramp. Then, there is absolutely no way that normal players will move their probe when enemy zealot is almost dead. Match fix or not, this is total shit game.
then look at 3rd game and just WOW.....we all will say "who is this guy? nice micro and nice defend. totally different person compare game 2
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
DUDE, stop fucking ignore the referee from WESG. It was posted here Chinese officials started the investigation. As far as I know it should be illegal in CHina to match fix and thus if there's a suspicion the investigation will start.
Mob justice rarely works, most of the time they kill innocent. That's why we have officials with the autority to do more than just look at a stream and say, it's suspicious as hell, let's burn the witch. They can get the background information you can't.
My argument is that it is very unlikely for MacSed to intentionally loose to Seventy91, considering: (1) how difficult it is for money flow-in and flow-out China, (2) such loss would be read by Chinese SC2 fans as an absolute joke and led to long-term online harassment, and (3) the game was playing on-site and broadcasted, and MacSed's dropping performance in recent games. Below are detailed explanations....
It doesn't matter how unlikely it is for Macsed to intentionally lose to Seventy91, if he has so obviously chosen to do so. From an SC2 perspective Macsed chose to lose as obviously as if he decided to just probe rush with no micro.
I can offer my opinion based on the VOD and circumstances - it appears matchfixed. But I will withhold any further commenting until officials with more evidence can present it. Either way, it is an ugly situation.
If I'm ever being tried for a crime, I want some of you guys on my jury. In the jury room, you'd say "Sure, he bought the same type of gun that was used in the murder a week before, was caught on film saying 'you better watch yourself' to the deceased, and his cell phone put him in the area when the murder happened, but that's all circumstantial, and if circumstantial evidence isn't enough to convict someone of match fixing, it isn't nearly enough for a murder trial no matter how damning that circumstantial evidence is.".
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
Regarding your first argument, I quickly checked and Pinnacle allows Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, so theoretically he could make so that nothing goes through a Chinese bank and he probably wouldn't need anybody's help with that. Just saying.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
Regarding your first argument, I quickly checked and Pinnacle allows Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, so theoretically he could make so that nothing goes through a Chinese bank and he probably wouldn't need anybody's help with that. Just saying.
It's also not nearly as hard as he makes it seem. I've received US dollar payments quite a few times here in China (on a Chinese bank account) and I've never had any issues with them or it has never taken me more than a few minutes to convert the foreign currency to Chinese currency. I think anyone who has actually seen the game knows this doesn't matter anyway as it's obvious the game was fixed.
One notable feature about Chinese SC2 fans is that they tend to be very nationalistic (some of them are arguably as racist as Powerfoe and NinjaNight). For them, an established player loosing to a not well-regarded foreign player is simply unforgivable.
Hahaha! I can't take you seriously after this.
Talk about "jumping to conclusions." I'm not racist at all. I'd be defending Macsed if I didn't feel the evidence was so overwhelmingly against him that there's little chance he didn't matchfix. On the contrary I hope the Chinese scene does well and stays honest.
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote: Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.
Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.
Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.
You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?
"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.
That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.
As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.
There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.
It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
DUDE, stop fucking ignore the referee from WESG. It was posted here Chinese officials started the investigation. As far as I know it should be illegal in CHina to match fix and thus if there's a suspicion the investigation will start.
Don't get me wrong, I'm in favor of investigating this further before making a final decision. There's no reason why we shouldn't look even deeper and make sure we're not missing something. I was just attempting to make it as clear as I can using my huge amount of SC2 experience how incredibly suspicious these events are. I think I've said enough now.
One notable feature about Chinese SC2 fans is that they tend to be very nationalistic (some of them are arguably as racist as Powerfoe and NinjaNight). For them, an established player loosing to a not well-regarded foreign player is simply unforgivable.
What a madness you wrote there, Seventy91 is can't be even assumed as a player, he is just casual SC2 user, who is playing 1-5 games in a month , with 0-30 games played in a whole season. "not well-regarded" rofl
On March 15 2019 22:18 Boggyb wrote: If I'm ever being tried for a crime, I want some of you guys on my jury. In the jury room, you'd say "Sure, he bought the same type of gun that was used in the murder a week before, was caught on film saying 'you better watch yourself' to the deceased, and his cell phone put him in the area when the murder happened, but that's all circumstantial, and if circumstantial evidence isn't enough to convict someone of match fixing, it isn't nearly enough for a murder trial no matter how damning that circumstantial evidence is.".
Most of the time if the cops don't have the murder weapon, eye witness(who can be dismantled by a good defendant because eye witnesses are very lousy evidence(not joking)) or other direct evidence, the circumstancial evidence have to be damn strong. That's how many innocents were executed in US. Later on it was found they were innocent. Read something about those cases. That's why the system should work on the premise, that it's better to leave someone dangerous free than to ruin someone who's innocent.
Even current DNA testing isn't as strong evidence as many would love to believe. There's plenty of what can go wrong during the murder investigation.
Since you're one of the lynch mobbing guys, let me ask you several questions: 1) How much money was involved in the betting? 2) How does the Pinnacle algorithm for betting weights the volatility. We have an unknown player who can have a fake account(smurf account) and is much higher in reality, we don't know. We have a game that's volatile(bo loss is still a thing) and we have a volatile format(considering map betting, you can have a lucky win, proleague showed us some games where the clear favorite lost, sure, there wasn't such high discrepancy between the MMR but still, even in BO3 the victor wouldn't have a chance) 3) What was the motive of MacSed? Why did he accepted it? If it's illegal in China you're trapping yourself with future blackmailing possibilities for what exactly? 4) Who contanted whom? 5) Can you clearly discard any other potential cases?
I can go on, but we don't know how much money was involved, who made the plan, why MacSed lost and how does the algorithm work. It may have been few hundred bucks or few thousand, we don't know.
All we know that there was some weird betting and that the game looked bad. But we, as a community, should demant thorough investigation, not a lynch.
Similarly to your example. You bought a gun - where's the gun? If you have the gun, you can easily prove your innocence. Your mobile phone said IT was there(not that you were there). Where's your mobile phone? You said you would kill him, how many people did you said that to? (it makes life easier if you threaten to everybody when in rage)
In case you will suddenly lose your gun, your phone and except this person you've never threatened to anybody else, it would look suspicious. On the other hand - leaving the crime scene without any trace of evidence is nowadays nearly impossible, for example, clothes. Did you burn them? How often were you at his home? because there's a high chance you lost something there that can be analyzed. Did you take all the shells with you? If not - did you use gloves while filling the gun/clip? Did you shoot with an overall, mask and such things on? (so you can't leave evidence)
There are ways how to kill safely, I guarantee you, but most of the time in the western countries in cases of murders - the general person will do a mistake. And it's not just this weak evidence (at least nowadays) to get you in jail.
One notable feature about Chinese SC2 fans is that they tend to be very nationalistic (some of them are arguably as racist as Powerfoe and NinjaNight). For them, an established player loosing to a not well-regarded foreign player is simply unforgivable.
Hahaha! I can't take you seriously after this.
Talk about "jumping to conclusions." I'm not racist at all. I'd be defending Macsed if I didn't feel the evidence was so overwhelmingly against him that there's little chance he didn't matchfix. On the contrary I hope the Chinese scene does well and stays honest.
Claims that you are racist to undermine the evidence against Macsed, then he proceeds to use racism as an argument for why Macsed wouldn't match fix. I don't even play sc2 but this is entertaining as hell
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
Regarding your first argument, I quickly checked and Pinnacle allows Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, so theoretically he could make so that nothing goes through a Chinese bank and he probably wouldn't need anybody's help with that. Just saying.
It's also not nearly as hard as he makes it seem. I've received US dollar payments quite a few times here in China (on a Chinese bank account) and I've never had any issues with them or it has never taken me more than a few minutes to convert the foreign currency to Chinese currency. I think anyone who has actually seen the game knows this doesn't matter anyway as it's obvious the game was fixed.
The Chinese government has gone through a Crypto Crack down (https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/23/china-continues-its-crypto-crackdown-blocks-public-access-to-offshore-exchanges/), precisely because its strong stance against "untraceable money movements". Using crypto currency in this case won't be as easy as somewhere else.
Again, back to the bank route, you can do foreign currency exchange and send money in and out of China, but I just don't see an easy way to do it without leave a trace, and this is known to most Chinese. That's why the "follow the money" suggestions works better than lynching around a VOD.
I don't think for such a small game that a lot of money would be involved, and considering all the hurdles/additional costs to do this secretly, I made the argument that it's unlikely happen.
If we are talking about a Chinese underground gamble site, then the story would sounds more reasonable. But Pinnacle is an open oversea site. Online Gambling is completely banned in China.
We do have a questionable VOD and weird betting pattern, but official investigation tracing the money should be the crucial evidence.
On March 15 2019 22:18 Boggyb wrote: If I'm ever being tried for a crime, I want some of you guys on my jury. In the jury room, you'd say "Sure, he bought the same type of gun that was used in the murder a week before, was caught on film saying 'you better watch yourself' to the deceased, and his cell phone put him in the area when the murder happened, but that's all circumstantial, and if circumstantial evidence isn't enough to convict someone of match fixing, it isn't nearly enough for a murder trial no matter how damning that circumstantial evidence is.".
Most of the time if the cops don't have the murder weapon, eye witness(who can be dismantled by a good defendant because eye witnesses are very lousy evidence(not joking)) or other direct evidence, the circumstancial evidence have to be damn strong. That's how many innocents were executed in US. Later on it was found they were innocent. Read something about those cases. That's why the system should work on the premise, that it's better to leave someone dangerous free than to ruin someone who's innocent.
Most erroneous convictions are not a product of circumstantial evidence painting an incorrect picture but police or prosecutor misconduct along with incompetent or overworked public defenders. Racism by jurors is also a factor.
On March 16 2019 00:35 deacon.frost wrote: Since you're one of the lynch mobbing guys, let me ask you several questions: 1) How much money was involved in the betting?
It doesn't matter from the esports perspective though it possibly does from a legal perspective in terms of determining severity of the crime. If he took $.01 to throw a game, he should be banned for life. If Rail took $.01 to help facilitate it, he should be banned for life.
On March 16 2019 00:35 deacon.frost wrote: 2) How does the Pinnacle algorithm for betting weights the volatility. We have an unknown player who can have a fake account(smurf account) and is much higher in reality, we don't know. We have a game that's volatile(bo loss is still a thing) and we have a volatile format(considering map betting, you can have a lucky win, proleague showed us some games where the clear favorite lost, sure, there wasn't such high discrepancy between the MMR but still, even in BO3 the victor wouldn't have a chance)
While that might be relevant from a criminal perspective or to Pinnacle, it doesn't matter from an esports perspective.
On March 16 2019 00:35 deacon.frost wrote: 3) What was the motive of MacSed? Why did he accepted it? If it's illegal in China you're trapping yourself with future blackmailing possibilities for what exactly?
Money. He thought he wouldn't get caught. Blackmailing a co-conspirator in a crime is all kinds of dumb as there is mutually assured destruction, but even ignoring that, most criminals are dumb and don't think things through or they wouldn't commit the crime.
On March 16 2019 00:35 deacon.frost wrote: 4) Who contanted whom?
That doesn't matter in the slightest unless you're talking about entrapment situations and while that might matter from a legal perspective, it doesn't for the esports perspective. Ban him regardless.
On March 16 2019 00:35 deacon.frost wrote: 5) Can you clearly discard any other potential cases?
No. Anyone who match fixes should be banned for life.
On March 16 2019 00:35 deacon.frost wrote: All we know that there was some weird betting and that the game looked bad. But we, as a community, should demand thorough investigation, not a lynch.
From an esports perspective, the investigation need be nothing more than verifying the betting happened as described, then talking to everyone involved on the .0000000000000001% chance they can give a decent explanation for what happened. (The explanations we've gotten so far do not come close and any change to those are suspect) Then you ban the guilty for life.
If the police decide to prosecute, then yes, additional evidence is helpful since pointing to money trails is easier than explaining Elo ratings and how the "mistakes" MacSed made are not realistic to a judge or jury.
On March 15 2019 22:18 Boggyb wrote: If I'm ever being tried for a crime, I want some of you guys on my jury. In the jury room, you'd say "Sure, he bought the same type of gun that was used in the murder a week before, was caught on film saying 'you better watch yourself' to the deceased, and his cell phone put him in the area when the murder happened, but that's all circumstantial, and if circumstantial evidence isn't enough to convict someone of match fixing, it isn't nearly enough for a murder trial no matter how damning that circumstantial evidence is.".
Most of the time if the cops don't have the murder weapon, eye witness(who can be dismantled by a good defendant because eye witnesses are very lousy evidence(not joking)) or other direct evidence, the circumstancial evidence have to be damn strong. That's how many innocents were executed in US. Later on it was found they were innocent. Read something about those cases. That's why the system should work on the premise, that it's better to leave someone dangerous free than to ruin someone who's innocent.
Even current DNA testing isn't as strong evidence as many would love to believe. There's plenty of what can go wrong during the murder investigation.
Since you're one of the lynch mobbing guys, let me ask you several questions: 1) How much money was involved in the betting? 2) How does the Pinnacle algorithm for betting weights the volatility. We have an unknown player who can have a fake account(smurf account) and is much higher in reality, we don't know. We have a game that's volatile(bo loss is still a thing) and we have a volatile format(considering map betting, you can have a lucky win, proleague showed us some games where the clear favorite lost, sure, there wasn't such high discrepancy between the MMR but still, even in BO3 the victor wouldn't have a chance) 3) What was the motive of MacSed? Why did he accepted it? If it's illegal in China you're trapping yourself with future blackmailing possibilities for what exactly? 4) Who contanted whom? 5) Can you clearly discard any other potential cases?
I can go on, but we don't know how much money was involved, who made the plan, why MacSed lost and how does the algorithm work. It may have been few hundred bucks or few thousand, we don't know.
All we know that there was some weird betting and that the game looked bad. But we, as a community, should demant thorough investigation, not a lynch.
Similarly to your example. You bought a gun - where's the gun? If you have the gun, you can easily prove your innocence. Your mobile phone said IT was there(not that you were there). Where's your mobile phone? You said you would kill him, how many people did you said that to? (it makes life easier if you threaten to everybody when in rage)
In case you will suddenly lose your gun, your phone and except this person you've never threatened to anybody else, it would look suspicious. On the other hand - leaving the crime scene without any trace of evidence is nowadays nearly impossible, for example, clothes. Did you burn them? How often were you at his home? because there's a high chance you lost something there that can be analyzed. Did you take all the shells with you? If not - did you use gloves while filling the gun/clip? Did you shoot with an overall, mask and such things on? (so you can't leave evidence)
There are ways how to kill safely, I guarantee you, but most of the time in the western countries in cases of murders - the general person will do a mistake. And it's not just this weak evidence (at least nowadays) to get you in jail.
I spend too much time with cops
Do you genuinely think that macsed did not deliberately lose the game, or do you just not like bobbyb's analogy?
On March 16 2019 01:59 Russano wrote: Random aside: Isn't it entirely possible that he bet on himself to lose? No co-conspirator needed? Or at least just a friend to be the proxy.
Absolutely. The issue there is they'd be more likely to raise flags if they have new accounts making a huge, unusual bet on an otherwise small time series. Professional bettors/cheaters would know how to minimized the risks.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
Regarding your first argument, I quickly checked and Pinnacle allows Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, so theoretically he could make so that nothing goes through a Chinese bank and he probably wouldn't need anybody's help with that. Just saying.
It's also not nearly as hard as he makes it seem. I've received US dollar payments quite a few times here in China (on a Chinese bank account) and I've never had any issues with them or it has never taken me more than a few minutes to convert the foreign currency to Chinese currency. I think anyone who has actually seen the game knows this doesn't matter anyway as it's obvious the game was fixed.
The Chinese government has gone through a Crypto Crack down (https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/23/china-continues-its-crypto-crackdown-blocks-public-access-to-offshore-exchanges/), precisely because its strong stance against "untraceable money movements". Using crypto currency in this case won't be as easy as somewhere else.
Again, back to the bank route, you can do foreign currency exchange and send money in and out of China, but I just don't see an easy way to do it without leave a trace, and this is known to most Chinese. That's why the "follow the money" suggestions works better than lynching around a VOD.
I don't think for such a small game that a lot of money would be involved, and considering all the hurdles/additional costs to do this secretly, I made the argument that it's unlikely happen.
If we are talking about a Chinese underground gamble site, then the story would sounds more reasonable. But Pinnacle is an open oversea site. Online Gambling is completely banned in China.
We do have a questionable VOD and weird betting pattern, but official investigation tracing the money should be the crucial evidence.
You can tell all you want about an official stance you want, but using crypto and trading in it is still pretty easy in China if you want to and despite online gambling being banned I am willing to bet no one really cares about it and no investigation would ever be launched into a single bet of a few hundred dollars and there is virtually no risk despite there being a 'trace'.
And then we're not even taken into account he was probably paid in another way and someone else put the bet up. So yea, it all sounds pretty scary, but in reality none of these are arguments have much credibility and none of them would be much of a hindrance for fixing the game.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
Regarding your first argument, I quickly checked and Pinnacle allows Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, so theoretically he could make so that nothing goes through a Chinese bank and he probably wouldn't need anybody's help with that. Just saying.
It's also not nearly as hard as he makes it seem. I've received US dollar payments quite a few times here in China (on a Chinese bank account) and I've never had any issues with them or it has never taken me more than a few minutes to convert the foreign currency to Chinese currency. I think anyone who has actually seen the game knows this doesn't matter anyway as it's obvious the game was fixed.
The Chinese government has gone through a Crypto Crack down (https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/23/china-continues-its-crypto-crackdown-blocks-public-access-to-offshore-exchanges/), precisely because its strong stance against "untraceable money movements". Using crypto currency in this case won't be as easy as somewhere else.
Again, back to the bank route, you can do foreign currency exchange and send money in and out of China, but I just don't see an easy way to do it without leave a trace, and this is known to most Chinese. That's why the "follow the money" suggestions works better than lynching around a VOD.
I don't think for such a small game that a lot of money would be involved, and considering all the hurdles/additional costs to do this secretly, I made the argument that it's unlikely happen.
If we are talking about a Chinese underground gamble site, then the story would sounds more reasonable. But Pinnacle is an open oversea site. Online Gambling is completely banned in China.
We do have a questionable VOD and weird betting pattern, but official investigation tracing the money should be the crucial evidence.
You can tell all you want about an official stance you want, but using crypto and trading in it is still pretty easy in China if you want to and despite online gambling being banned I am willing to bet no one really cares about it and no investigation would ever be launched into a single bet of a few hundred dollars and there is virtually no risk despite there being a 'trace'.
And then we're not even taken into account he was probably paid in another way and someone else put the bet up. So yea, it all sounds pretty scary, but in reality none of these are arguments have much credibility and none of them would be much of a hindrance for fixing the game.
It is possible to be the case you stated, but again, it is not "pretty easy in China" in 2019. Just read some news (e.g. https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/07/09/china-crackdown-bitcoin/) and get a sense about how China's finance system these days work on the mechanism of tracking every single dollar of people's daily spending... There will be trace if match-fix is involved, and again, it is under investigation.
You make the case that "he could be paid in another way", but again, how? Now the story would be like, someone found a Chinese proxy agent, approached MacSed, had to win his trust (if someone you don't know came to you, say. "dude, want to make some quick cash?" What's your normal response?), found an untraceable way to make the payment, and then, for at most thousands of dollars?
Again, I don't believe a 32 year-old (yes, MacSed is that old) would take his daily job and career at risk for such small amount. I make the judgment from a working adult's common sense. I could be proved to be wrong. But before that, just don't be so determined that someone barely staying above MMR 6000 cannot lose to MMR4000 player in a hilarious way.
I will shut up from now on since I have made my points. The sad thing is, given how the community had responded, even official investigation result probably won't clear MacSed's name since so many people already rushed to the conclusion.
This is the most fixed game i've ever seen. I don't find what MacSed did wrong btw, cheers to him for ez money of people who are gambling on a video game. One should have right to throw his own games, because anything you do to throw intentionally can be counted as "playing bad" or vice versa anyways. Just look how ridiculously naive these comments here about a %101 fixed game.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
Regarding your first argument, I quickly checked and Pinnacle allows Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, so theoretically he could make so that nothing goes through a Chinese bank and he probably wouldn't need anybody's help with that. Just saying.
It's also not nearly as hard as he makes it seem. I've received US dollar payments quite a few times here in China (on a Chinese bank account) and I've never had any issues with them or it has never taken me more than a few minutes to convert the foreign currency to Chinese currency. I think anyone who has actually seen the game knows this doesn't matter anyway as it's obvious the game was fixed.
The Chinese government has gone through a Crypto Crack down (https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/23/china-continues-its-crypto-crackdown-blocks-public-access-to-offshore-exchanges/), precisely because its strong stance against "untraceable money movements". Using crypto currency in this case won't be as easy as somewhere else.
Again, back to the bank route, you can do foreign currency exchange and send money in and out of China, but I just don't see an easy way to do it without leave a trace, and this is known to most Chinese. That's why the "follow the money" suggestions works better than lynching around a VOD.
I don't think for such a small game that a lot of money would be involved, and considering all the hurdles/additional costs to do this secretly, I made the argument that it's unlikely happen.
If we are talking about a Chinese underground gamble site, then the story would sounds more reasonable. But Pinnacle is an open oversea site. Online Gambling is completely banned in China.
We do have a questionable VOD and weird betting pattern, but official investigation tracing the money should be the crucial evidence.
You can tell all you want about an official stance you want, but using crypto and trading in it is still pretty easy in China if you want to and despite online gambling being banned I am willing to bet no one really cares about it and no investigation would ever be launched into a single bet of a few hundred dollars and there is virtually no risk despite there being a 'trace'.
And then we're not even taken into account he was probably paid in another way and someone else put the bet up. So yea, it all sounds pretty scary, but in reality none of these are arguments have much credibility and none of them would be much of a hindrance for fixing the game.
It is possible to be the case you stated, but again, it is not "pretty easy in China" in 2019. Just read some news (e.g. https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/07/09/china-crackdown-bitcoin/) and get a sense about how China's finance system these days work on the mechanism of tracking every single dollar of people's daily spending... There will be trace if match-fix is involved, and again, it is under investigation.
You make the case that "he could be paid in another way", but again, how? Now the story would be like, someone found a Chinese proxy agent, approached MacSed, had to win his trust (if someone you don't know came to you, say. "dude, want to make some quick cash?" What's your normal response?), found an untraceable way to make the payment, and then, for at most thousands of dollars?
Again, I don't believe a 32 year-old (yes, MacSed is that old) would take his daily job and career at risk for such small amount. I make the judgment from a working adult's common sense. I could be proved to be wrong. But before that, just don't be so determined that someone barely staying above MMR 6000 cannot lose to MMR4000 player in a hilarious way.
I will shut up from now on since I have made my points. The sad thing is, given how the community had responded, even official investigation result probably won't clear MacSed's name since so many people already rushed to the conclusion.
Wait a second ... who ever claimed that it was a non-chinese who paid MacSed for throwing the map ... and it should easily be possible for a chinese to pay another chinese, right? So no cross-national transfer of money would be needed ... and only a few people questioned that a 6k MMR player can lose to a 4k MMR player ... However, the way MacSed lost that game is pretty indicative of intentionally throwing the map ...
On March 16 2019 03:36 Aegwynn wrote: This is the most fixed game i've ever seen. I don't find what MacSed did wrong btw, cheers to him for ez money of people who are gambling on a video game. One should have right to throw his own games, because anything you do to throw intentionally can be counted as "playing bad" or vice versa anyways. Just look how ridiculously naive these comments here about a %101 fixed game.
No, throwing games on purpose should be illegal not "one should have right to throw his own games". It ruins trust, it ruins bets although gamble is forbidden in some countries (e.g. South Korea?), hence less viewership. That's exactly what sport organisers don't want.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
Regarding your first argument, I quickly checked and Pinnacle allows Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, so theoretically he could make so that nothing goes through a Chinese bank and he probably wouldn't need anybody's help with that. Just saying.
It's also not nearly as hard as he makes it seem. I've received US dollar payments quite a few times here in China (on a Chinese bank account) and I've never had any issues with them or it has never taken me more than a few minutes to convert the foreign currency to Chinese currency. I think anyone who has actually seen the game knows this doesn't matter anyway as it's obvious the game was fixed.
The Chinese government has gone through a Crypto Crack down (https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/23/china-continues-its-crypto-crackdown-blocks-public-access-to-offshore-exchanges/), precisely because its strong stance against "untraceable money movements". Using crypto currency in this case won't be as easy as somewhere else.
Again, back to the bank route, you can do foreign currency exchange and send money in and out of China, but I just don't see an easy way to do it without leave a trace, and this is known to most Chinese. That's why the "follow the money" suggestions works better than lynching around a VOD.
I don't think for such a small game that a lot of money would be involved, and considering all the hurdles/additional costs to do this secretly, I made the argument that it's unlikely happen.
If we are talking about a Chinese underground gamble site, then the story would sounds more reasonable. But Pinnacle is an open oversea site. Online Gambling is completely banned in China.
We do have a questionable VOD and weird betting pattern, but official investigation tracing the money should be the crucial evidence.
You can tell all you want about an official stance you want, but using crypto and trading in it is still pretty easy in China if you want to and despite online gambling being banned I am willing to bet no one really cares about it and no investigation would ever be launched into a single bet of a few hundred dollars and there is virtually no risk despite there being a 'trace'.
And then we're not even taken into account he was probably paid in another way and someone else put the bet up. So yea, it all sounds pretty scary, but in reality none of these are arguments have much credibility and none of them would be much of a hindrance for fixing the game.
It is possible to be the case you stated, but again, it is not "pretty easy in China" in 2019. Just read some news (e.g. https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/07/09/china-crackdown-bitcoin/) and get a sense about how China's finance system these days work on the mechanism of tracking every single dollar of people's daily spending... There will be trace if match-fix is involved, and again, it is under investigation.
You make the case that "he could be paid in another way", but again, how? Now the story would be like, someone found a Chinese proxy agent, approached MacSed, had to win his trust (if someone you don't know came to you, say. "dude, want to make some quick cash?" What's your normal response?), found an untraceable way to make the payment, and then, for at most thousands of dollars?
Again, I don't believe a 32 year-old (yes, MacSed is that old) would take his daily job and career at risk for such small amount. I make the judgment from a working adult's common sense. I could be proved to be wrong. But before that, just don't be so determined that someone barely staying above MMR 6000 cannot lose to MMR4000 player in a hilarious way.
I will shut up from now on since I have made my points. The sad thing is, given how the community had responded, even official investigation result probably won't clear MacSed's name since so many people already rushed to the conclusion.
Wait a second ... who ever claimed that it was a non-chinese who paid MacSed for throwing the map ... and it should easily be possible for a chinese to pay another chinese, right? So no cross-national transfer of money would be needed ... and only a few people questioned that a 6k MMR player can lose to a 4k MMR player ... However, the way MacSed lost that game is pretty indicative of intentionally throwing the map ...
If it is a Chinese paid MacSed to do so, then why not gambling at a Chinese underground gambling site? Get my point? I am not rushing to any conclusion, just point out all the odd issues beyond the VOD. To go back to my original point, the story sounds more "persuasive or logic" if:
(1) not Pinnacle, but a Chinese underground gambling site showed the betting line changes, in this case, this could be a domestic affair, avoiding all the issues I raised.
(2) Someone found an established Chinese player, and another much stronger EU players, paid both to let the Chinese player to "match-fix" an unexpected win. Such situation won't trigger China's nationalistic fans' backlash.
What we have is the most unlikely situation: a semi-retired player is to match-fix knowing that such action would lead to online harassment from nationalistic fans, do it knowing the game is broadcasted, and after finished being laughed by all friends coming to the tournament.
Think about all these factors... I have to say, the money involved must be substantial, which, would leave trace. But as far as we know, such a smallish game won't attract that huge amount of money from the beginning.
On March 16 2019 03:36 Aegwynn wrote: This is the most fixed game i've ever seen. I don't find what MacSed did wrong btw, cheers to him for ez money of people who are gambling on a video game. One should have right to throw his own games, because anything you do to throw intentionally can be counted as "playing bad" or vice versa anyways. Just look how ridiculously naive these comments here about a %101 fixed game.
No, throwing games on purpose should be illegal not "one should have right to throw his own games". It ruins trust, it ruins bets although gamble is forbidden in some countries (e.g. South Korea?), hence less viewership. That's exactly what sport organisers don't want.
I disagree, i believe legal throwing would eventually kill map score based bettings and this kind of pointless discussions.
Now I know that some of you see everything in bloody colours when it comes to matchfixing, but hear me out here. I recently realized that matchfixing, while unpleasant, isn't as big of a deal as it seems - simply because for it to have any purpose, it needs to be rare. There is no risk of "every match being fixed", just because nobody would bet on that. The millisecond a sport gets the rap of being heavily fixed, the any bettor with half a brain must move to something else, no? And without bettors, there is noone to win money from - the betting companies aren't going to subsidize the fixers by their own money and will just close shop and move on when normal bettors leave.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
Regarding your first argument, I quickly checked and Pinnacle allows Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, so theoretically he could make so that nothing goes through a Chinese bank and he probably wouldn't need anybody's help with that. Just saying.
It's also not nearly as hard as he makes it seem. I've received US dollar payments quite a few times here in China (on a Chinese bank account) and I've never had any issues with them or it has never taken me more than a few minutes to convert the foreign currency to Chinese currency. I think anyone who has actually seen the game knows this doesn't matter anyway as it's obvious the game was fixed.
The Chinese government has gone through a Crypto Crack down (https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/23/china-continues-its-crypto-crackdown-blocks-public-access-to-offshore-exchanges/), precisely because its strong stance against "untraceable money movements". Using crypto currency in this case won't be as easy as somewhere else.
Again, back to the bank route, you can do foreign currency exchange and send money in and out of China, but I just don't see an easy way to do it without leave a trace, and this is known to most Chinese. That's why the "follow the money" suggestions works better than lynching around a VOD.
I don't think for such a small game that a lot of money would be involved, and considering all the hurdles/additional costs to do this secretly, I made the argument that it's unlikely happen.
If we are talking about a Chinese underground gamble site, then the story would sounds more reasonable. But Pinnacle is an open oversea site. Online Gambling is completely banned in China.
We do have a questionable VOD and weird betting pattern, but official investigation tracing the money should be the crucial evidence.
You can tell all you want about an official stance you want, but using crypto and trading in it is still pretty easy in China if you want to and despite online gambling being banned I am willing to bet no one really cares about it and no investigation would ever be launched into a single bet of a few hundred dollars and there is virtually no risk despite there being a 'trace'.
And then we're not even taken into account he was probably paid in another way and someone else put the bet up. So yea, it all sounds pretty scary, but in reality none of these are arguments have much credibility and none of them would be much of a hindrance for fixing the game.
It is possible to be the case you stated, but again, it is not "pretty easy in China" in 2019. Just read some news (e.g. https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/07/09/china-crackdown-bitcoin/) and get a sense about how China's finance system these days work on the mechanism of tracking every single dollar of people's daily spending... There will be trace if match-fix is involved, and again, it is under investigation.
You make the case that "he could be paid in another way", but again, how? Now the story would be like, someone found a Chinese proxy agent, approached MacSed, had to win his trust (if someone you don't know came to you, say. "dude, want to make some quick cash?" What's your normal response?), found an untraceable way to make the payment, and then, for at most thousands of dollars?
Again, I don't believe a 32 year-old (yes, MacSed is that old) would take his daily job and career at risk for such small amount. I make the judgment from a working adult's common sense. I could be proved to be wrong. But before that, just don't be so determined that someone barely staying above MMR 6000 cannot lose to MMR4000 player in a hilarious way.
I will shut up from now on since I have made my points. The sad thing is, given how the community had responded, even official investigation result probably won't clear MacSed's name since so many people already rushed to the conclusion.
Wait a second ... who ever claimed that it was a non-chinese who paid MacSed for throwing the map ... and it should easily be possible for a chinese to pay another chinese, right? So no cross-national transfer of money would be needed ... and only a few people questioned that a 6k MMR player can lose to a 4k MMR player ... However, the way MacSed lost that game is pretty indicative of intentionally throwing the map ...
If it is a Chinese paid MacSed to do so, then why not gambling at a Chinese underground gambling site? Get my point? I am not rushing to any conclusion, just point out all the odd issues beyond the VOD. To go back to my original point, the story sounds more "persuasive or logic" if:
(1) not Pinnacle, but a Chinese underground gambling site showed the betting line changes, in this case, this could be a domestic affair, avoiding all the issues I raised.
(2) Someone found an established Chinese player, and another much stronger EU players, paid both to let the Chinese player to "match-fix" an unexpected win. Such situation won't trigger China's nationalistic fans' backlash.
What we have is the most unlikely situation: a semi-retired player is to match-fix knowing that such action would lead to online harassment from nationalistic fans, do it knowing the game is broadcasted, and after finished being laughed by all friends coming to the tournament.
Think about all these factors... I have to say, the money involved must be substantial, which, would leave trace. But as far as we know, such a smallish game won't attract that huge amount of money from the beginning.
Ok, regarding your first point: It is entirely possible (and others have already explained that) that the match-fixer (i.e. the person who paid MacSed to throw the map) placed his bets on a Chinese underground gambling site and that this information then leaked out to other people who placed their bets on a Pinnacle. Regarding your second points: The more people are involved in such a setting, the more likely it is to get detected. Additionally, if you have a much stronger EU player, the betting lines will be much lower (i.e. you will not get such a good return) for the match. Therefore, it is probably more profitable to have a match-up against a weak player. And to invalidate your point further, MacSed might have had a decent chance to make it out of the group. Thus, losing a map against sevent91 does not diminish his chances because he was practically guaranteed to win the third map. However, against a better player, there is the realistic possibility to lose the third map as well. Furthermore, how immense actually was the backlash of the Chinese community after he lost one map against seventy91 (and before all those match-fixing accusations rose to the surface)? If there was no such backlash, then your argument is also pretty much invalidated.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
Regarding your first argument, I quickly checked and Pinnacle allows Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, so theoretically he could make so that nothing goes through a Chinese bank and he probably wouldn't need anybody's help with that. Just saying.
It's also not nearly as hard as he makes it seem. I've received US dollar payments quite a few times here in China (on a Chinese bank account) and I've never had any issues with them or it has never taken me more than a few minutes to convert the foreign currency to Chinese currency. I think anyone who has actually seen the game knows this doesn't matter anyway as it's obvious the game was fixed.
The Chinese government has gone through a Crypto Crack down (https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/23/china-continues-its-crypto-crackdown-blocks-public-access-to-offshore-exchanges/), precisely because its strong stance against "untraceable money movements". Using crypto currency in this case won't be as easy as somewhere else.
Again, back to the bank route, you can do foreign currency exchange and send money in and out of China, but I just don't see an easy way to do it without leave a trace, and this is known to most Chinese. That's why the "follow the money" suggestions works better than lynching around a VOD.
I don't think for such a small game that a lot of money would be involved, and considering all the hurdles/additional costs to do this secretly, I made the argument that it's unlikely happen.
If we are talking about a Chinese underground gamble site, then the story would sounds more reasonable. But Pinnacle is an open oversea site. Online Gambling is completely banned in China.
We do have a questionable VOD and weird betting pattern, but official investigation tracing the money should be the crucial evidence.
You can tell all you want about an official stance you want, but using crypto and trading in it is still pretty easy in China if you want to and despite online gambling being banned I am willing to bet no one really cares about it and no investigation would ever be launched into a single bet of a few hundred dollars and there is virtually no risk despite there being a 'trace'.
And then we're not even taken into account he was probably paid in another way and someone else put the bet up. So yea, it all sounds pretty scary, but in reality none of these are arguments have much credibility and none of them would be much of a hindrance for fixing the game.
It is possible to be the case you stated, but again, it is not "pretty easy in China" in 2019. Just read some news (e.g. https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/07/09/china-crackdown-bitcoin/) and get a sense about how China's finance system these days work on the mechanism of tracking every single dollar of people's daily spending... There will be trace if match-fix is involved, and again, it is under investigation.
You make the case that "he could be paid in another way", but again, how? Now the story would be like, someone found a Chinese proxy agent, approached MacSed, had to win his trust (if someone you don't know came to you, say. "dude, want to make some quick cash?" What's your normal response?), found an untraceable way to make the payment, and then, for at most thousands of dollars?
Again, I don't believe a 32 year-old (yes, MacSed is that old) would take his daily job and career at risk for such small amount. I make the judgment from a working adult's common sense. I could be proved to be wrong. But before that, just don't be so determined that someone barely staying above MMR 6000 cannot lose to MMR4000 player in a hilarious way.
I will shut up from now on since I have made my points. The sad thing is, given how the community had responded, even official investigation result probably won't clear MacSed's name since so many people already rushed to the conclusion.
Like I said before, I live in China, I have crypto and I know it's not that hard to buy/sell crypto here if you want to and if we're not talking huge amounts. If you are from China you must know that too... Other than that it could be anyone that cooperated with him, not gonna speculate on that and I think it doesn't necessarily have to be a very well thought out plan. It seems like a simple idea, taking a loss for some cash, but as can be seen from the game itself, losing without raising any suspicion is harder than it might seem.
Anyway, to me its absolutely 100% clear he intentionally lost that game and a fix would then be most likely I guess. And no, I don't have 100% proof for that, but that theory fits the story best. I think most of the points raised against this are just not very strong (like your whole bitcoin/bank trouble, which is pretty much non-existent and I feel like you should know that if you live in China or have lived there).
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) one thing unknown to many people living in the West is how closely the Chinese government is monitoring cash transitions involving a foreign account. China has been really tight to censorship its citizens, to avoid capital escaping China.
A good example of how this influence esports is “Master's Coliseum” organized by Xiaose and F91. When Zest won 2018 Master's Coliseum, it took Xiaose and F91 more than 6 months to sent Zest the full cash prize, since a lump sum payment had to go through a very complicated application to China's Bank system and was effectively impossible to do.
Similarly, if a noticeable amount (more than $300) was sent from a foreign account to a Chinese domestic account, it would be flagged by the Chinese bank system. For any Chinese who ever travel oversea, they know this.
So the issue is, if we assume someone from an oversea website paid MacSed, then it is almost impossible to leave no trace, and I don't believe MacSed would be so stupid to ignore this.
Regarding your first argument, I quickly checked and Pinnacle allows Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, so theoretically he could make so that nothing goes through a Chinese bank and he probably wouldn't need anybody's help with that. Just saying.
It's also not nearly as hard as he makes it seem. I've received US dollar payments quite a few times here in China (on a Chinese bank account) and I've never had any issues with them or it has never taken me more than a few minutes to convert the foreign currency to Chinese currency. I think anyone who has actually seen the game knows this doesn't matter anyway as it's obvious the game was fixed.
The Chinese government has gone through a Crypto Crack down (https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/23/china-continues-its-crypto-crackdown-blocks-public-access-to-offshore-exchanges/), precisely because its strong stance against "untraceable money movements". Using crypto currency in this case won't be as easy as somewhere else.
Again, back to the bank route, you can do foreign currency exchange and send money in and out of China, but I just don't see an easy way to do it without leave a trace, and this is known to most Chinese. That's why the "follow the money" suggestions works better than lynching around a VOD.
I don't think for such a small game that a lot of money would be involved, and considering all the hurdles/additional costs to do this secretly, I made the argument that it's unlikely happen.
If we are talking about a Chinese underground gamble site, then the story would sounds more reasonable. But Pinnacle is an open oversea site. Online Gambling is completely banned in China.
We do have a questionable VOD and weird betting pattern, but official investigation tracing the money should be the crucial evidence.
You can tell all you want about an official stance you want, but using crypto and trading in it is still pretty easy in China if you want to and despite online gambling being banned I am willing to bet no one really cares about it and no investigation would ever be launched into a single bet of a few hundred dollars and there is virtually no risk despite there being a 'trace'.
And then we're not even taken into account he was probably paid in another way and someone else put the bet up. So yea, it all sounds pretty scary, but in reality none of these are arguments have much credibility and none of them would be much of a hindrance for fixing the game.
It is possible to be the case you stated, but again, it is not "pretty easy in China" in 2019. Just read some news (e.g. https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/07/09/china-crackdown-bitcoin/) and get a sense about how China's finance system these days work on the mechanism of tracking every single dollar of people's daily spending... There will be trace if match-fix is involved, and again, it is under investigation.
You make the case that "he could be paid in another way", but again, how? Now the story would be like, someone found a Chinese proxy agent, approached MacSed, had to win his trust (if someone you don't know came to you, say. "dude, want to make some quick cash?" What's your normal response?), found an untraceable way to make the payment, and then, for at most thousands of dollars?
Again, I don't believe a 32 year-old (yes, MacSed is that old) would take his daily job and career at risk for such small amount. I make the judgment from a working adult's common sense. I could be proved to be wrong. But before that, just don't be so determined that someone barely staying above MMR 6000 cannot lose to MMR4000 player in a hilarious way.
I will shut up from now on since I have made my points. The sad thing is, given how the community had responded, even official investigation result probably won't clear MacSed's name since so many people already rushed to the conclusion.
Like I said before, I live in China, I have crypto and I know it's not that hard to buy/sell crypto here if you want to and if we're not talking huge amounts. If you are from China you must know that too... Other than that it could be anyone that cooperated with him, not gonna speculate on that and I think it doesn't necessarily have to be a very well thought out plan. It seems like a simple idea, taking a loss for some cash, but as can be seen from the game itself, losing without raising any suspicion is harder than it might seem.
Anyway, to me its absolutely 100% clear he intentionally lost that game and a fix would then be most likely I guess. And no, I don't have 100% proof for that, but that theory fits the story best. I think most of the points raised against this are just not very strong (like your whole bitcoin/bank trouble, which is pretty much non-existent and I feel like you should know that if you live in China or have lived there).
OK, let's end the conversation in "disagree with respect". You can do crypto currencies in China, but back to my point, for ordinary folks, I won't see how someone would bother the troubles only for thousands of dollars.
If you live in China, and can read Chinese (with Google translation), check out http://bbs.niuyou5.com/forum-161-1.html (where most Scboy fans discuss SC2 games), and MacSed's weibo (iGMacSed, I believe). His loss already got hundreds of humiliating posts, laughing at him for "losing China's national face" (yes, it's weird, but that's the mindset within China's SC2 circle), simply given the population base of Chinese game community. Everybody do esport in China know such consequence.
That's why my argument was that there has to be a substantial amount of money to persuade MacSed to take such a humiliating loss.
On March 16 2019 04:03 opisska wrote: Now I know that some of you see everything in bloody colours when it comes to matchfixing, but hear me out here. I recently realized that matchfixing, while unpleasant, isn't as big of a deal as it seems - simply because for it to have any purpose, it needs to be rare. There is no risk of "every match being fixed", just because nobody would bet on that. The millisecond a sport gets the rap of being heavily fixed, the any bettor with half a brain must move to something else, no? And without bettors, there is noone to win money from - the betting companies aren't going to subsidize the fixers by their own money and will just close shop and move on when normal bettors leave.
Well, hoping for all (e)sport gamblers to only have rational minds seems dubious, no ? People even gamble on pro wrestling where it is 100% know to be 100% fixed by nature, lol.
Plus, if one match on 30 is fixed but players play well the comedy, public will maybe be suspicious on 1/10th of this, so with one match on 300 suspect it still not get a rep of being "heavily fixed".
On March 16 2019 04:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Pilot912, do you think that macsed did or did not deliberately lose the game?
Whether he was persuaded by a substantial amount of money or not does not matter.
I feel that he did not deliberately lose the game. I acknowledge all the doubts people raised about the VOD, but we have to take his "personal face" into consideration as well.
Back to Group F, the Chinese community wasn't expecting MacSed could advance from it since it is also impossible for him to beat Scarlett and DNS. This has been discussed within the Chinese forum extensively before the start of WESG. Chinese fans felt that MacSed could struggle against Bly in a "dog fight" scenario (Bly was not as established as DNS and Scarlett), but losing to EnDerr and Seventy91, given how unknown they are, would be unacceptable (back to the nationalistic point I mentioned).
For people following the Chinese SC2 forum, MacSed has been a “谐星” (Comedian) for the past three years as he aged and dropped practice. He surprised Chinese fans by winning the WESG spot. In general sense, the Chinese SC2 community regards Time as the best Chinese player (iASonu announced that he is semi-retired, so he would be still around the sense, but as hard as he used to try), and "老逼" (old folks) such as iGXY, TooDming, and iGMacSed, as "gatekeeper" who can be beaten by any young serious pro-player. The only reason these "old folks" still linger around is because SC2 wasn't attracting a lot of young players, such folks went to Dota2, LOL, etc.
MacSed himself is in the process of transitioning into a commentator/coach/streamer role. So take this into consideration, I am not persuaded that he would do a match-fix to risk his future career. In fact, the consensus emerging from Chinese SC2 online community is that MacSed had been over-estimated too much by TL... His actual MMR, after dropping practice following win the WESG spot around the end of last year, could be 5500 or even worse.
I believe MacSed was streaming occasionally at Douyu, just check it out, and see since last year, how little he played SC2 alive... The hours he had spent was on Autochess, etc.
Man, i really need a new, second TL account to help the MacSed did nothing wrong crowd.
On topic, who knows how much money MacSed got out of that. Just consider borrowing money from friends and family members and use every available legal/illegal platform for your deed. Here 1k there 1k, it adds up i guess.
On March 16 2019 03:36 Aegwynn wrote: This is the most fixed game i've ever seen. I don't find what MacSed did wrong btw, cheers to him for ez money of people who are gambling on a video game. One should have right to throw his own games, because anything you do to throw intentionally can be counted as "playing bad" or vice versa anyways. Just look how ridiculously naive these comments here about a %101 fixed game.
No, throwing games on purpose should be illegal not "one should have right to throw his own games". It ruins trust, it ruins bets although gamble is forbidden in some countries (e.g. South Korea?), hence less viewership. That's exactly what sport organisers don't want.
I disagree, i believe legal throwing would eventually kill map score based bettings and this kind of pointless discussions.
Yeah, pretty much this. Basically bet on your own risk even if it is fixed. Up till now I haven't seen an argument which convinces me that matchfixing should be illegal (though it probably is?).
On March 16 2019 03:36 Aegwynn wrote: This is the most fixed game i've ever seen. I don't find what MacSed did wrong btw, cheers to him for ez money of people who are gambling on a video game. One should have right to throw his own games, because anything you do to throw intentionally can be counted as "playing bad" or vice versa anyways. Just look how ridiculously naive these comments here about a %101 fixed game.
No, throwing games on purpose should be illegal not "one should have right to throw his own games". It ruins trust, it ruins bets although gamble is forbidden in some countries (e.g. South Korea?), hence less viewership. That's exactly what sport organisers don't want.
I disagree, i believe legal throwing would eventually kill map score based bettings and this kind of pointless discussions.
Yeah, pretty much this. Basically bet on your own risk even if it is fixed. Up till now I haven't seen an argument which convinces me that matchfixing should be illegal (though it probably is?).
Think of match-fixing as lying to investors. You put money on A with the understanding that A has a % chance of giving you a return. You place your bets because you think you have a good chance of getting a good return. But turns out your chance of winning was 0% all along because the game has already been decided by the match fixer. Would you bet 1k on a game that you have 0% chance of winning?
On March 16 2019 04:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Pilot912, do you think that macsed did or did not deliberately lose the game?
Whether he was persuaded by a substantial amount of money or not does not matter.
I feel that he did not deliberately lose the game.
Then you cannot see the obvious. Everything you have written, which may be true, is irrelevant to that he has deliberately chosen to lose.
Macsed could had just as easily been blackmailed, or the betting ratio changing was just a coincidence, and so macsed gets no money, and has to endure "losing face", but that game can only be a game where Macsed chose to lose.
On March 16 2019 03:36 Aegwynn wrote: This is the most fixed game i've ever seen. I don't find what MacSed did wrong btw, cheers to him for ez money of people who are gambling on a video game. One should have right to throw his own games, because anything you do to throw intentionally can be counted as "playing bad" or vice versa anyways. Just look how ridiculously naive these comments here about a %101 fixed game.
No, throwing games on purpose should be illegal not "one should have right to throw his own games". It ruins trust, it ruins bets although gamble is forbidden in some countries (e.g. South Korea?), hence less viewership. That's exactly what sport organisers don't want.
I disagree, i believe legal throwing would eventually kill map score based bettings and this kind of pointless discussions.
Yeah, pretty much this. Basically bet on your own risk even if it is fixed. Up till now I haven't seen an argument which convinces me that matchfixing should be illegal (though it probably is?).
Amazed I have to explain this. Here's your 1st grade lesson.
1) Ruins the experience for spectators which is what esports is fundamentally about. Entertaining the spectators. This is sufficient reason in itself
2) Could be considered a kind of thievery as those who are expecting a fair match would be robbed of their money if they chose the correct side but they lose because it was rigged for the opponent
3) Will destroy the sport if anyone can simply do this at will without consequences
I mean with the gameplay footage, there's just no good outcome here for MacSed, no matter what people are trying to argue. He's either a matchfixer, a player who has absolutely no fucking clue what he's doing and shouldn't have participated in the tournament to begin with, or he had a seizure mid-game and should have been sent to the ER.
If a player simply does a worker rush then loses can we conclude he lost on purpose? maybe if he completely miss microes his workers in a way they arent atacking? what if the player, as was already mentioned here,before mining any minerals just kills his own nexus? Then of course right?
So at some point we can conclude by in game evidence that the player lost on purpose. That byun vs mkp game that had lot of people were dead sure i still had imo reasonable doubt, this one though... so many blatant plays he had to make, one after the other, to make sure he coudnt win by mistake against a player so much worse than him.
Of course in the early part, if I were watching live, to give him the benefit of the doubt i could possibly consider that the first mistakes was him playing with his food, (like letting his opponent know he was canon rushing) making the game harder or something, since he would be still be confident he would win. Even failing the canon rush or letting one zealot in. But then repeatedly letting the zealots in and eventualy losing the game? i mean is there anyone that doubts that he knows that a cannon woudnt close the ramp???
99.5% he lost on purpose. Why is the matter for an investigation. Hope it doesn't find anything.
On March 14 2019 13:14 hiro protagonist wrote: I would love to know if we can find out if anyone bet for a 2-1 outcome on any other of seventy91’s series. I would also like to know if more than one bet was made or it was just one bet that changed the line so much. Like, giving his MMR disparity from everyone else in his group, you could have picked anyone he played against as it was a long shot he would win regardless.
Knowing this info would make things a lot clearer imo.
Nice name. When will they make the series or movie?
i think the most troubling part was when he made a pylon in his base when he was being attacked by zealots in his mineral line. His supply was already fine by a good margin. I think he started to panic and was trying to bring his minerals down, so it wouldn't be an obvious match fix. Amateur hour.
On March 16 2019 04:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Pilot912, do you think that macsed did or did not deliberately lose the game?
Whether he was persuaded by a substantial amount of money or not does not matter.
I feel that he did not deliberately lose the game.
Then you cannot see the obvious. Everything you have written, which may be true, is irrelevant to that he has deliberately chosen to lose.
Macsed could had just as easily been blackmailed, or the betting ratio changing was just a coincidence, and so macsed gets no money, and has to endure "losing face", but that game can only be a game where Macsed chose to lose.
This would be my final post in the line as I feel that no one seems to try to engage in a meaningful discussion. Here's my final thought on this 400+ thread of conversations.
The primary motivation of me joining the conversation is that I am criticizing the "rush logic" that many people have been following in make the "guilty" call against MacSed. My defence for MacSed could be wrong, and I'm happy to admit my mistake if formal investigation results proved suspicious money movement around his account.
Don't want to reveal much of my personal info here, but my daily job involves analyzing the factors that influence people's decision-making behaviour. Humans are complex animals, but we could analyze and make educated speculation on them when they are doing risk-taking behaviours. Participating in illegal gamble is a risk-taking action. In a basic economic 101 sense, people tend to maximize their gains while avoiding risks.
Where I depart from most accusers here is that I believe the VOD evidence and all the circumstantial issues I raised are both circumstantial evidence. The only decisive evidence would be money movement when we try to reach the verdict.
I wrote these long posts to highlight the fact that, the loss (humiliation from fans, potential career risks) for MacSed "match-fixed" with Seventy91 would be higher than most people assume, I provided the details in my previous posts. If he decided to do this, it has to involve huge amount of money, which is difficult to leave no trace. Taken together, using only VOD and the changing bet line on pinnacle won't be sufficient to reach the conclusion.
For me, all the conversations here are a classic example of confirmation bias. Once the consensus was built among several posters, then they stop listening to the other side of story, and take people's input as offence.
In a perfect world of robot versus robot, MMR4000 could not win MMR6000, but as we know, people can make a serious of mistakes in a short time. The decisive evidence should be the money in the case of match-fix, otherwise, MacSed remains innocent according to the justice system in most Western countries, and the rushed conclusions are at least inappropriate as we still wait for the official investigation result.
I listened. I didn't write anything when you decided that the accusations were racism motivated. I didn't say anything about how you framed your argument as chinese culture making matchfixing unlikely. I didn't say anything about macsed having money (whether foreign or otherwise) being deposited into any accounts.
What I don't understand is how anybody can watch the vod (did you watch the vod?) and claim that Macsed didn't try to lose.
On March 16 2019 04:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Pilot912, do you think that macsed did or did not deliberately lose the game?
Whether he was persuaded by a substantial amount of money or not does not matter.
I feel that he did not deliberately lose the game.
Then you cannot see the obvious. Everything you have written, which may be true, is irrelevant to that he has deliberately chosen to lose.
Macsed could had just as easily been blackmailed, or the betting ratio changing was just a coincidence, and so macsed gets no money, and has to endure "losing face", but that game can only be a game where Macsed chose to lose.
For me, all the conversations here are a classic example of confirmation bias. Once the consensus was built among several posters, then they stop listening to the other side of story, and take people's input as offence.
Nope. For me at least what anyone else argues about this doesn't have any effect on my belief that the evidence is very strong against him. And I'm all for investigating this more deeply before coming to a conclusion...
However, I don't know how they could attain your decisive evidence of money movement. The only reason they were able to do that in Life's case was because the Korean police launched a huge investigation. Are the investigators here really going to have the power to uncover that kind of thing?
On March 16 2019 04:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Pilot912, do you think that macsed did or did not deliberately lose the game?
Whether he was persuaded by a substantial amount of money or not does not matter.
I feel that he did not deliberately lose the game.
Then you cannot see the obvious. Everything you have written, which may be true, is irrelevant to that he has deliberately chosen to lose.
Macsed could had just as easily been blackmailed, or the betting ratio changing was just a coincidence, and so macsed gets no money, and has to endure "losing face", but that game can only be a game where Macsed chose to lose.
For me, all the conversations here are a classic example of confirmation bias. Once the consensus was built among several posters, then they stop listening to the other side of story, and take people's input as offence.
Nope. For me at least what anyone else argues about this doesn't have any effect on my belief that the evidence is very strong against him. And I'm all for investigating this more deeply before coming to a conclusion...
However, I don't know how they could attain your decisive evidence of money movement. The only reason they were able to do that in Life's case was because the Korean police launched a huge investigation. Are the investigators here really going to have the power to uncover that kind of thing?
OK, I get both you and Dangermousecatdog's perspectives and let's disagree with respect. As far as I know from online conversations in Chinese forums, there are internal forces pushing within China's SC2 online community to get things clear out, and WESG organizer now feels a little humiliated by the noise we created here at TL. MacSed himself probably wants to get his name cleared too if he's truly innocent. We will see some official result soon, and which should show more inside evidence (e.g. Rail's comment about providing Seventy91 the strategy, etc.). Keep an eye on the updates.
It's certainly true that some posters are more zealous than others with regard to convicting MacSed in the court of public opinion. What I believe you may be missing is the game in the greater context of the match. If you take Game 2 out of context, then it could be reasonably assumed that he was just messing around for the first half of the match and had mentally given up in the second half.
However, things get much more damning when we look at the skills he showed in the other two games. Even if we say that he's a rusty GM player and that 6000 MMR doesn't accurately describe his current ability, we would have a very difficult time making that argument when we are watching Game 3 which immediately followed. Game 3 looks like he's in good competitive shape, a modern contender in SC2.
There is a "mental defeat threshold" that exists in games. This is a threshold which defines a state of mind that prevents a player from rallying because of a perceived foregone conclusion. If you're playing basketball and you're 40 points down with 2 minutes remaining in the final quarter, that's statistically impossible to win. 40 points down with 5 minutes remaining? Not absolutely impossible, but so extremely unlikely that you probably crossed your mental defeat threshold. You've already written off the outcome, so you just stop trying. I think we can probably outline whether that was a factor in this game: 1. Poor pylon placement (in plain view): MacSed might be feeling confident. 2. Poor cannon placement (easily thwarted): MacSed might still be feeling confident. 3. Cannon to seal the ramp opening: ??? 4. Probes fail to kill Zealots: Mentally defeated. "Even if I kill them, I can't win. GG."
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt in #4, but #3 is where I can't in good faith reasonably say that MacSed was in an unwinnable position. That was salvageable by even average players, let alone 4000-MMR players, not to mention 6000-MMR players. If you seal that wall with a Gateway, you'll fully recover, stabilize, and potentially win. Nobody would make a decision to seal that choke with a Cannon.
Lots of players in tournaments do risky or wacky builds when they're ahead in a series. However, the riskier the build, the faster they concede when it fails because whatever happens, the result occurs quickly. But they still try to win those high-risk games. If someone cannon rushes and it completely fails, they GG and go to the next game. If it does moderate damage, they transition into the mid-game and things eventually start to play out more normally. That transition was possible for MacSed, but he didn't even make an effort. The outcome of the game was already determined not by the actions of his opponent, but by his own decisions. And then when you factor in the suspicious bet lines, it becomes very difficult to argue that this was anything but orchestrated.
On March 16 2019 03:36 Aegwynn wrote: This is the most fixed game i've ever seen. I don't find what MacSed did wrong btw, cheers to him for ez money of people who are gambling on a video game. One should have right to throw his own games, because anything you do to throw intentionally can be counted as "playing bad" or vice versa anyways. Just look how ridiculously naive these comments here about a %101 fixed game.
No, throwing games on purpose should be illegal not "one should have right to throw his own games". It ruins trust, it ruins bets although gamble is forbidden in some countries (e.g. South Korea?), hence less viewership. That's exactly what sport organisers don't want.
I disagree, i believe legal throwing would eventually kill map score based bettings and this kind of pointless discussions.
Yeah, pretty much this. Basically bet on your own risk even if it is fixed. Up till now I haven't seen an argument which convinces me that matchfixing should be illegal (though it probably is?).
Amazed I have to explain this. Here's your 1st grade lesson.
1) Ruins the experience for spectators which is what esports is fundamentally about. Entertaining the spectators. This is sufficient reason in itself
2) Could be considered a kind of thievery as those who are expecting a fair match would be robbed of their money if they chose the correct side but they lose because it was rigged for the opponent
3) Will destroy the sport if anyone can simply do this at will without consequences
etc...
I see why it is a first grade lesson: because it is probably not really correct when analyzed more thoroughly.
I don't see how 1 and 3 are true. These are just your assumptions which I can counter assume: - We would still be entertained. - (It's not like someone would try to lose in every game we watch.) - Will NOT destroy the sport if anyone can simply do this at will without consequences.
2 is also not necessarily correct - CANNOT be considered thievery, because you can expect it to happen.
On March 16 2019 07:03 phodacbiet wrote: Think of match-fixing as lying to investors. You put money on A with the understanding that A has a % chance of giving you a return. You place your bets because you think you have a good chance of getting a good return. But turns out your chance of winning was 0% all along because the game has already been decided by the match fixer. Would you bet 1k on a game that you have 0% chance of winning?
I can understand that then when I think of it as gambling financing (e)sports. Though for me this seems like a practical consideration rather than an ideological one. Basically (e)sports trading part of its freedom for money if I'm allowed to phrase it like that.
On March 16 2019 08:14 Excalibur_Z wrote: It's certainly true that some posters are more zealous than others with regard to convicting MacSed in the court of public opinion. What I believe you may be missing is the game in the greater context of the match. If you take Game 2 out of context, then it could be reasonably assumed that he was just messing around for the first half of the match and had mentally given up in the second half.
However, things get much more damning when we look at the skills he showed in the other two games. Even if we say that he's a rusty GM player and that 6000 MMR doesn't accurately describe his current ability, we would have a very difficult time making that argument when we are watching Game 3 which immediately followed. Game 3 looks like he's in good competitive shape, a modern contender in SC2.
There is a "mental defeat threshold" that exists in games. This is a threshold which defines a state of mind that prevents a player from rallying because of a perceived foregone conclusion. If you're playing basketball and you're 40 points down with 2 minutes remaining in the final quarter, that's statistically impossible to win. 40 points down with 5 minutes remaining? Not absolutely impossible, but so extremely unlikely that you probably crossed your mental defeat threshold. You've already written off the outcome, so you just stop trying. I think we can probably outline whether that was a factor in this game: 1. Poor pylon placement (in plain view): MacSed might be feeling confident. 2. Poor cannon placement (easily thwarted): MacSed might still be feeling confident. 3. Cannon to seal the ramp opening: ??? 4. Probes fail to kill Zealots: Mentally defeated. "Even if I kill them, I can't win. GG."
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt in #4, but #3 is where I can't in good faith reasonably say that MacSed was in an unwinnable position. That was salvageable by even average players, let alone 4000-MMR players, not to mention 6000-MMR players. If you seal that wall with a Gateway, you'll fully recover, stabilize, and potentially win. Nobody would make a decision to seal that choke with a Cannon.
Lots of players in tournaments do risky or wacky builds when they're ahead in a series. However, the riskier the build, the faster they concede when it fails because whatever happens, the result occurs quickly. But they still try to win those high-risk games. If someone cannon rushes and it completely fails, they GG and go to the next game. If it does moderate damage, they transition into the mid-game and things eventually start to play out more normally. That transition was possible for MacSed, but he didn't even make an effort. The outcome of the game was already determined not by the actions of his opponent, but by his own decisions. And then when you factor in the suspicious bet lines, it becomes very difficult to argue that this was anything but orchestrated.
I agree with the points listed here and will see if I can translate them back to the China side to get them investigated.
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt in #4, but #3 is where I can't in good faith reasonably say that MacSed was in an unwinnable position. That was salvageable by even average players, let alone 4000-MMR players, not to mention 6000-MMR players. If you seal that wall with a Gateway, you'll fully recover, stabilize, and potentially win. Nobody would make a decision to seal that choke with a Cannon.
Lots of players in tournaments do risky or wacky builds when they're ahead in a series. However, the riskier the build, the faster they concede when it fails because whatever happens, the result occurs quickly. But they still try to win those high-risk games. If someone cannon rushes and it completely fails, they GG and go to the next game. If it does moderate damage, they transition into the mid-game and things eventually start to play out more normally. That transition was possible for MacSed, but he didn't even make an effort. The outcome of the game was already determined not by the actions of his opponent, but by his own decisions. And then when you factor in the suspicious bet lines, it becomes very difficult to argue that this was anything but orchestrated.
Yep, that's single handedly the best piece of in-game evidence. It would've been even easier (!) for him to simply complete the wall with a gateway and place a cannon anywhere behind it. Instead he makes an elaborate wall of gateway + cannon which is not only harder to build but also is incredibly weak and guarantees the zealots get inside his base.
Then the ultimate proof that this was not a "mistake." He always rewalls that same spot with a cannon when obviously he could still use a gateway and have a secure wall. The only reason this could ever happen is because he wants the zealots to get into his base and wants to make it look like he's trying to keep them out.
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt in #4, but #3 is where I can't in good faith reasonably say that MacSed was in an unwinnable position. That was salvageable by even average players, let alone 4000-MMR players, not to mention 6000-MMR players. If you seal that wall with a Gateway, you'll fully recover, stabilize, and potentially win. Nobody would make a decision to seal that choke with a Cannon.
Lots of players in tournaments do risky or wacky builds when they're ahead in a series. However, the riskier the build, the faster they concede when it fails because whatever happens, the result occurs quickly. But they still try to win those high-risk games. If someone cannon rushes and it completely fails, they GG and go to the next game. If it does moderate damage, they transition into the mid-game and things eventually start to play out more normally. That transition was possible for MacSed, but he didn't even make an effort. The outcome of the game was already determined not by the actions of his opponent, but by his own decisions. And then when you factor in the suspicious bet lines, it becomes very difficult to argue that this was anything but orchestrated.
Yep, that's single handedly the best piece of in-game evidence. It would've been even easier (!) for him to simply complete the wall with a gateway and place a cannon anywhere behind it. Instead he makes an elaborate wall of gateway + cannon which is not only harder to build but also is incredibly weak and guarantees the zealots get inside his base.
Then the ultimate proof that this was not a "mistake." He always rewalls that same spot with a cannon when obviously he could still use a gateway and have a secure wall. The only reason this could ever happen is because he wants the zealots to get into his base and wants to make it look like he's trying to keep them out.
Also the fact that: 1. He lost those 2 probes in Seventy's base to 1 Zealot (which you can kite for days) 2. He lost 1 or 2 proxy cannons without cancelling 3. Blocking his own wall with cannons twice both times no cancel. 4. Probes surround on the 2 zealots in his own mineral line attacking them both 2 red health and then decides to click on mineral patch to stack probes instead of killing the 2 zealots off??
I don't know if he's matchfixing but I know that if you showed anyone game 2 and this whole series with decent knowledge about SC2, they would find game 2 highly suspicious and when you add in the betting odds, this can only make people think there's something not right about this whole thing. It's really hard to believe that he can play that bad at that MMR level.
If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus?
Also, it was obvious that Macsed was not getting out of his group, so he would win $0 for playing. If someone offered him cash to throw game 2, against an opponent so weak he knew 100% he could win 2-1 after throwing a map, this was the most ripe opportunity for this match fixing to happen.
On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote: If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus?
Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote: If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus?
Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
No it is not viable at all, which is why it’s not believable that Macsed thought that was happening instead of proxy gateways. When you scout what Macsed saw, 99% of the time it is proxy gateway zealot, yet Macsed does not fully wall off with a cannon behind it despite ample opportunity.
On March 16 2019 10:47 SolaR- wrote: lol i know its subtle but i still think building the pylon when he already had like 20 free supply was the most telling.
Or noticing that the Protoss you are cannon rushing has almost nothing in his main, no gas, and not responding by fully walling off at home with 1 gateway and 1 cannon behind it. You don’t even have to see the zealot to know what is happening.
Even though this game throwing didn’t change the outcome of this group, it’s still so egregious that if it goes unpunished, it only invites more game throwing, whatever the reason it was that he wanted to lose that game so badly.
On March 16 2019 04:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Pilot912, do you think that macsed did or did not deliberately lose the game?
Whether he was persuaded by a substantial amount of money or not does not matter.
I feel that he did not deliberately lose the game.
Then you cannot see the obvious. Everything you have written, which may be true, is irrelevant to that he has deliberately chosen to lose.
Macsed could had just as easily been blackmailed, or the betting ratio changing was just a coincidence, and so macsed gets no money, and has to endure "losing face", but that game can only be a game where Macsed chose to lose.
For me, all the conversations here are a classic example of confirmation bias. Once the consensus was built among several posters, then they stop listening to the other side of story, and take people's input as offence.
Nope. For me at least what anyone else argues about this doesn't have any effect on my belief that the evidence is very strong against him. And I'm all for investigating this more deeply before coming to a conclusion...
However, I don't know how they could attain your decisive evidence of money movement. The only reason they were able to do that in Life's case was because the Korean police launched a huge investigation. Are the investigators here really going to have the power to uncover that kind of thing?
OK, I get both you and Dangermousecatdog's perspectives and let's disagree with respect. As far as I know from online conversations in Chinese forums, there are internal forces pushing within China's SC2 online community to get things clear out, and WESG organizer now feels a little humiliated by the noise we created here at TL. MacSed himself probably wants to get his name cleared too if he's truly innocent. We will see some official result soon, and which should show more inside evidence (e.g. Rail's comment about providing Seventy91 the strategy, etc.). Keep an eye on the updates.
The Rail thing is nothing but a smokescreen imo. Everybody close to the situation has said something about this Rail guy like they're trying to involve a third party in this mess. Seventy91's build was almost completely irrelevant, MacSed had countless opportunities to get some sort of advantage and ignored them each time or straight up dug himself further in shit. This build is not fucking sorcery, it's a bad proxy gate build... The only thing it did was making very hard for MacSed to conceal his intention to lose the set.
Pretending like a competitive player gave a diamond player some kind of secret build was a nice try, but it doesn't come even remotely close to healing the mistrust users here have built when presented with all the facts.
On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote: If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus?
Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
Since LOTV somewhat viable but not common; may not be strictly safe in very high level PvP. It works at high master although with a second gate following the cyber core after your nexus is down and i've played many games out from that opening, even against people who knew that it was coming out.
Your units come a bit later but defenders advantage generally makes up for it and it can hold 2gate pressures, proxy stargate/robo etc. The second chrono from the earlier nexus helps, as do defensive shield batteries in some situations.
If you're doing that kind of nexus before second gate build you're putting the nexus down long before you can have any ranged unit out - sometimes before you even start the cyber core - so it's obvious to any probe scout what's going on.
Overall i'd say that people are way too quick to dismiss openings like that as implausible as a whole (as if nobody would ever use them and they're a nonfactor in sc2) because such a nexus-after-1-gate opening can be pulled off well over 1000 MMR higher than the weaker player in question, probably 1500+ MMR which is a completely different level of play.
---
Looking at that game in particular: It's so explicit that this kind of opening is not happening that it's completely implausible that macsed would read it as such and misplay in the ways that he did. There's no gas and no nexus, the gateway timing is way off. Probe count is too low. A bit later there is no second pylon and no cyber core. The question is not if there's a proxy or not, it's what and where the proxy is.
On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote: If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus?
Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
Absolutely not with a late gateway like that. You'd die every time to a competent protoss. What he scouted means proxy zealot nearly every time. It's impossible that he was legitimately fooled and thought his opponent was going for an expansion without even considering the possibility of proxy zealots. No way. So even his statement heavily points to his guilt.
On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote: If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus?
Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
Since LOTV somewhat viable but not common; may not be strictly safe. It works at high master although with a second gate following the cyber core after your nexus is down and i've played many games out from that opening, even against people who knew that it was coming out. Your units come a bit later but defenders advantage generally makes up for it and it can hold 2gate pressures, proxy stargate/robo etc. The second chrono from the earlier nexus helps, as do defensive shield batteries in some situations.
It's probably not as all-around good as other builds and i can't even name any specific high level pro games that have used it recently. The 2gate+core before nexus sentry-stalker opening gets you a lot more safe scouting info (very fast halluc) and doesn't delay cyber core production from either gateway so your less vulnerable to early game fuckery with it.
If you're doing that kind of nexus before second gate build you're putting the nexus down long before you can have any ranged unit out - sometimes before you even start the cyber core - so it's obvious to any probe scout what's going on.
Nope nope nope... You're going to confuse people who don't know better. I've played Protoss nonstop since 2011 and have reached a low/mid GM level. Also seen a ton of professional level play in the same time period.
His gateway in his main was late because he proxied a pylon out on the map. It's very easy to see that it's late. A 1 gate expand with a late gateway is certainly not viable at all and even if it was he has nothing to worry about since cannon rush would be a hard counter to that.
What he scouted (no gasses, late gateway) in the main immediately tells him there's gateways (maybe a forge with some very wonky cheeses) proxied somewhere out on the map. He knows at that moment this is almost always going to be a proxy zealot rush. He proceeds to play dumb.
On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote: If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus?
Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
Since LOTV somewhat viable but not common; may not be strictly safe. It works at high master although with a second gate following the cyber core after your nexus is down and i've played many games out from that opening, even against people who knew that it was coming out. Your units come a bit later but defenders advantage generally makes up for it and it can hold 2gate pressures, proxy stargate/robo etc. The second chrono from the earlier nexus helps, as do defensive shield batteries in some situations.
It's probably not as all-around good as other builds and i can't even name any specific high level pro games that have used it recently. The 2gate+core before nexus sentry-stalker opening gets you a lot more safe scouting info (very fast halluc) and doesn't delay cyber core production from either gateway so your less vulnerable to early game fuckery with it.
If you're doing that kind of nexus before second gate build you're putting the nexus down long before you can have any ranged unit out - sometimes before you even start the cyber core - so it's obvious to any probe scout what's going on.
Nope nope nope... You're going to confuse people who don't know better. I've played Protoss nonstop since 2011 and have reached a low/mid GM level. Also seen a ton of professional level play in the same time period.
His gateway in his main was late because he proxied a pylon out on the map. It's very easy to see that it's late. A 1 gate expand with a late gateway is certainly not viable at all and even if it was he has nothing to worry about since cannon rush would be a hard counter to that.
What he scouted (no gasses, late gateway) in the main immediately tells him there's gateways (maybe a forge with some very wonky cheeses) proxied somewhere out on the map. He knows at that moment this is almost always going to be a proxy zealot rush. He proceeds to play dumb.
Read the rest of my post. I maintain that you can play nexus before second gate openings very successfully and in much higher level pvp than 4k MMR - i've played dozens myself in the 5k's on the current patch.
Those builds, while somewhat effective, are hardly relevant to this game because it's not happening and it's completely implausible that Macsed would think that it was. The building timings (and lack of them) give it away 100% that it's an early proxy rather than a greedy expand and that's only a fraction of the info that was available.
You're going to confuse people who don't know better.
I don't think so! It's a truthful answer to a subject that i have far more experience with than the average TL poster and it avoids some of the recent hyperbole. It doesn't affect my opinions on the game and they're also clearly explained.
On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote: If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus?
Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
Since LOTV somewhat viable but not common; may not be strictly safe. It works at high master although with a second gate following the cyber core after your nexus is down and i've played many games out from that opening, even against people who knew that it was coming out. Your units come a bit later but defenders advantage generally makes up for it and it can hold 2gate pressures, proxy stargate/robo etc. The second chrono from the earlier nexus helps, as do defensive shield batteries in some situations.
It's probably not as all-around good as other builds and i can't even name any specific high level pro games that have used it recently. The 2gate+core before nexus sentry-stalker opening gets you a lot more safe scouting info (very fast halluc) and doesn't delay cyber core production from either gateway so your less vulnerable to early game fuckery with it.
If you're doing that kind of nexus before second gate build you're putting the nexus down long before you can have any ranged unit out - sometimes before you even start the cyber core - so it's obvious to any probe scout what's going on.
Nope nope nope... You're going to confuse people who don't know better. I've played Protoss nonstop since 2011 and have reached a low/mid GM level. Also seen a ton of professional level play in the same time period.
His gateway in his main was late because he proxied a pylon out on the map. It's very easy to see that it's late. A 1 gate expand with a late gateway is certainly not viable at all and even if it was he has nothing to worry about since cannon rush would be a hard counter to that.
What he scouted (no gasses, late gateway) in the main immediately tells him there's gateways (maybe a forge with some very wonky cheeses) proxied somewhere out on the map. He knows at that moment this is almost always going to be a proxy zealot rush. He proceeds to play dumb.
Read the rest of my post. I maintain that you can play nexus before second gate openings very successfully and in much higher level pvp than 4k MMR (i've played dozens myself above 5k) although that's hardly relevant to this game because it's not happening and both players know it 1000%.
Maybe so, but I'm sure your build doesn't involve the gateway being late due to a proxied pylon . Also I still doubt it would be viable against a player like Macsed. And again even if it was he has the perfect counter to it, a cannon rush. The only thing he needed to worry about was proxy zealots and he knew it.
I didn't even consider blackmail. China can be a relatively oppressive country (no offense intended, all countries and political systems have shortcomings) but it certainly is within the realm of possibility that Macsed really had no say in the matter. He was told by people 'higher up' to throw the game and he did what he was told.
Scary thought... if this gets thrown under the rug then that would be my guess.
And yes, I know this is seriously tangential - but still an interesting postulation, which may ultimately be relavent. Time will tell. Pun intended? Maybe, consider it a GEM of a joke. Or a Jim of a joke?
On March 16 2019 10:47 SolaR- wrote: lol i know its subtle but i still think building the pylon when he already had like 20 free supply was the most telling.
Where he built the pylon also made it so he couldn't get a full surround on the first zealot when it walked in, making his probes take more damage
On March 16 2019 08:14 Excalibur_Z wrote: It's certainly true that some posters are more zealous than others with regard to convicting MacSed in the court of public opinion. What I believe you may be missing is the game in the greater context of the match. If you take Game 2 out of context, then it could be reasonably assumed that he was just messing around for the first half of the match and had mentally given up in the second half.
However, things get much more damning when we look at the skills he showed in the other two games. Even if we say that he's a rusty GM player and that 6000 MMR doesn't accurately describe his current ability, we would have a very difficult time making that argument when we are watching Game 3 which immediately followed. Game 3 looks like he's in good competitive shape, a modern contender in SC2.
There is a "mental defeat threshold" that exists in games. This is a threshold which defines a state of mind that prevents a player from rallying because of a perceived foregone conclusion. If you're playing basketball and you're 40 points down with 2 minutes remaining in the final quarter, that's statistically impossible to win. 40 points down with 5 minutes remaining? Not absolutely impossible, but so extremely unlikely that you probably crossed your mental defeat threshold. You've already written off the outcome, so you just stop trying. I think we can probably outline whether that was a factor in this game: 1. Poor pylon placement (in plain view): MacSed might be feeling confident. 2. Poor cannon placement (easily thwarted): MacSed might still be feeling confident. 3. Cannon to seal the ramp opening: ??? 4. Probes fail to kill Zealots: Mentally defeated. "Even if I kill them, I can't win. GG."
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt in #4, but #3 is where I can't in good faith reasonably say that MacSed was in an unwinnable position. That was salvageable by even average players, let alone 4000-MMR players, not to mention 6000-MMR players. If you seal that wall with a Gateway, you'll fully recover, stabilize, and potentially win. Nobody would make a decision to seal that choke with a Cannon.
Lots of players in tournaments do risky or wacky builds when they're ahead in a series. However, the riskier the build, the faster they concede when it fails because whatever happens, the result occurs quickly. But they still try to win those high-risk games. If someone cannon rushes and it completely fails, they GG and go to the next game. If it does moderate damage, they transition into the mid-game and things eventually start to play out more normally. That transition was possible for MacSed, but he didn't even make an effort. The outcome of the game was already determined not by the actions of his opponent, but by his own decisions. And then when you factor in the suspicious bet lines, it becomes very difficult to argue that this was anything but orchestrated.
What a perfectly based argues (not) Why you, not beeing a player, and it seems like you certainly under 5k MMR , trying to analyze MacSed's actions? You pointed 4 silly moves and thinking thats all we need to think about here? Only player can understand other player, not a random user without game experience. There is already vod's up from pro players like BeastyQT or Marsman explanation of all the dumb mistakes in text form. And this is much more than your's poor 4 "mistakes" , around 15 maybe ? And they all heavy and stupid. For example : you write "probes fail to kill zealots , GG ",- but i still stay in a game for another 20 seconds. What gg are you talking about ? He would gg-out already, when he saw 2 zealots in mineral line. Players do risky and wacky builds only when opponent even deserves it, all the low-tier players 100% dying to any 3-min timing - like 2 gate stalker pressure, proxy sg oracles with adepts runby etc. Cannons take same time for win, but they are 1000x time less skill based and easier to defend. You will never see Showtime cannon rushing diamon player in go4sc2. There is basically no explanation of MacSed walling-off 3 times with cannons instead of pylon (which is cheaper and gaining more hp and gives you ability to survive) or cybercore. That only factor leaded to obvious matchfix and lose.
On March 16 2019 07:27 Uberfather wrote: If a player simply does a worker rush then loses can we conclude he lost on purpose? maybe if he completely miss microes his workers in a way they arent atacking? what if the player, as was already mentioned here,before mining any minerals just kills his own nexus? Then of course right?
So at some point we can conclude by in game evidence that the player lost on purpose. That byun vs mkp game that had lot of people were dead sure i still had imo reasonable doubt, this one though... so many blatant plays he had to make, one after the other, to make sure he coudnt win by mistake against a player so much worse than him.
Of course in the early part, if I were watching live, to give him the benefit of the doubt i could possibly consider that the first mistakes was him playing with his food, (like letting his opponent know he was canon rushing) making the game harder or something, since he would be still be confident he would win. Even failing the canon rush or letting one zealot in. But then repeatedly letting the zealots in and eventualy losing the game? i mean is there anyone that doubts that he knows that a cannon woudnt close the ramp???
99.5% he lost on purpose. Why is the matter for an investigation. Hope it doesn't find anything.
On March 14 2019 13:14 hiro protagonist wrote: I would love to know if we can find out if anyone bet for a 2-1 outcome on any other of seventy91’s series. I would also like to know if more than one bet was made or it was just one bet that changed the line so much. Like, giving his MMR disparity from everyone else in his group, you could have picked anyone he played against as it was a long shot he would win regardless.
Knowing this info would make things a lot clearer imo.
Nice name. When will they make the series or movie?
edit: damnit byul not byun
I am just not completely sure if I actually want to see that universe
On March 16 2019 04:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Pilot912, do you think that macsed did or did not deliberately lose the game?
Whether he was persuaded by a substantial amount of money or not does not matter.
I feel that he did not deliberately lose the game.
Then you cannot see the obvious. Everything you have written, which may be true, is irrelevant to that he has deliberately chosen to lose.
Macsed could had just as easily been blackmailed, or the betting ratio changing was just a coincidence, and so macsed gets no money, and has to endure "losing face", but that game can only be a game where Macsed chose to lose.
For me, all the conversations here are a classic example of confirmation bias. Once the consensus was built among several posters, then they stop listening to the other side of story, and take people's input as offence.
Nope. For me at least what anyone else argues about this doesn't have any effect on my belief that the evidence is very strong against him. And I'm all for investigating this more deeply before coming to a conclusion...
However, I don't know how they could attain your decisive evidence of money movement. The only reason they were able to do that in Life's case was because the Korean police launched a huge investigation. Are the investigators here really going to have the power to uncover that kind of thing?
OK, I get both you and Dangermousecatdog's perspectives and let's disagree with respect. As far as I know from online conversations in Chinese forums, there are internal forces pushing within China's SC2 online community to get things clear out, and WESG organizer now feels a little humiliated by the noise we created here at TL. MacSed himself probably wants to get his name cleared too if he's truly innocent. We will see some official result soon, and which should show more inside evidence (e.g. Rail's comment about providing Seventy91 the strategy, etc.). Keep an eye on the updates.
Well, then the discussion here had at least one positive effect. Regarding if Rail gave Seventy91 the strategy or whatever, that has basically nothing at all to do with MacSed (possibly) trying to throw the game (apart from making it harder and thus more obvious to throw).
MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
On March 16 2019 08:14 Excalibur_Z wrote: It's certainly true that some posters are more zealous than others with regard to convicting MacSed in the court of public opinion. What I believe you may be missing is the game in the greater context of the match. If you take Game 2 out of context, then it could be reasonably assumed that he was just messing around for the first half of the match and had mentally given up in the second half.
However, things get much more damning when we look at the skills he showed in the other two games. Even if we say that he's a rusty GM player and that 6000 MMR doesn't accurately describe his current ability, we would have a very difficult time making that argument when we are watching Game 3 which immediately followed. Game 3 looks like he's in good competitive shape, a modern contender in SC2.
There is a "mental defeat threshold" that exists in games. This is a threshold which defines a state of mind that prevents a player from rallying because of a perceived foregone conclusion. If you're playing basketball and you're 40 points down with 2 minutes remaining in the final quarter, that's statistically impossible to win. 40 points down with 5 minutes remaining? Not absolutely impossible, but so extremely unlikely that you probably crossed your mental defeat threshold. You've already written off the outcome, so you just stop trying. I think we can probably outline whether that was a factor in this game: 1. Poor pylon placement (in plain view): MacSed might be feeling confident. 2. Poor cannon placement (easily thwarted): MacSed might still be feeling confident. 3. Cannon to seal the ramp opening: ??? 4. Probes fail to kill Zealots: Mentally defeated. "Even if I kill them, I can't win. GG."
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt in #4, but #3 is where I can't in good faith reasonably say that MacSed was in an unwinnable position. That was salvageable by even average players, let alone 4000-MMR players, not to mention 6000-MMR players. If you seal that wall with a Gateway, you'll fully recover, stabilize, and potentially win. Nobody would make a decision to seal that choke with a Cannon.
Lots of players in tournaments do risky or wacky builds when they're ahead in a series. However, the riskier the build, the faster they concede when it fails because whatever happens, the result occurs quickly. But they still try to win those high-risk games. If someone cannon rushes and it completely fails, they GG and go to the next game. If it does moderate damage, they transition into the mid-game and things eventually start to play out more normally. That transition was possible for MacSed, but he didn't even make an effort. The outcome of the game was already determined not by the actions of his opponent, but by his own decisions. And then when you factor in the suspicious bet lines, it becomes very difficult to argue that this was anything but orchestrated.
What a perfectly based argues (not) Why you, not beeing a player, and it seems like you certainly under 5k MMR , trying to analyze MacSed's actions? You pointed 4 silly moves and thinking thats all we need to think about here? Only player can understand other player, not a random user without game experience. There is already vod's up from pro players like BeastyQT or Marsman explanation of all the dumb mistakes in text form. And this is much more than your's poor 4 "mistakes" , around 15 maybe ? And they all heavy and stupid. For example : you write "probes fail to kill zealots , GG ",- but i still stay in a game for another 20 seconds. What gg are you talking about ? He would gg-out already, when he saw 2 zealots in mineral line. Players do risky and wacky builds only when opponent even deserves it, all the low-tier players 100% dying to any 3-min timing - like 2 gate stalker pressure, proxy sg oracles with adepts runby etc. Cannons take same time for win, but they are 1000x time less skill based and easier to defend. You will never see Showtime cannon rushing diamon player in go4sc2. There is basically no explanation of MacSed walling-off 3 times with cannons instead of pylon (which is cheaper and gaining more hp and gives you ability to survive) or cybercore. That only factor leaded to obvious matchfix and lose.
You do realize he's arguing that Macsed matchfixed right?
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am:
Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet.
Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one.
You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take.
Ive checked this thread a few time and i keep seeing people with 0-10 posts coming here giving super stupid reasons to defend macsed. I wonder how many of these accounts are macsed himself, just saying. Should be looked into who this guy thats making 10+ accounts to come here and write stuff is.
Wow the incompetence of this tournament makes me even less confident that the investigation will be a competent one. All kinds of production issues prior to today. Then earlier today Rotti makes a tweet suggesting even he doesn't know exactly what is going on in terms of the tournament schedule. Now on what everyone thought was going to be the final day they only give us a little over 2 hours of action before ending it leaving the finals and 3rd place match for tomorrow. What offline tournament concludes a day with only a couple hours of games when there's still more left to be played? This is bizarre.
Judging by this I think the declaration of Macsed's innocence by their investigation might be inevitable. I'm seeing low quality everywhere, why should the investigation be any different?
On March 16 2019 18:38 sertas wrote: Ive checked this thread a few time and i keep seeing people with 0-10 posts coming here giving super stupid reasons to defend macsed. I wonder how many of these accounts are macsed himself, just saying. Should be looked into who this guy thats making 10+ accounts to come here and write stuff is.
If the arguments are 'super stupid' they should be quite easy for you to dismantle. I mean, really, think about it, chief -- you're the one who's now arguing on the basis of post counts and essentially suggesting that there is a conspiracy... and yet... we're supposed to be the stupid ones?
On March 16 2019 18:38 sertas wrote: Ive checked this thread a few time and i keep seeing people with 0-10 posts coming here giving super stupid reasons to defend macsed. I wonder how many of these accounts are macsed himself, just saying. Should be looked into who this guy thats making 10+ accounts to come here and write stuff is.
If the arguments are 'super stupid' they should be quite easy for you to dismantle. I mean, really, think about it, chief -- you're the one who's now arguing on the basis of post counts and essentially suggesting that there is a conspiracy... and yet... we're supposed to be the stupid ones?
If you defend macssed and think this wasnt matchfixing you are not the brightest person. Also wouldnt surprise me if all these 1 post guys giving long statements what an amazing guy macsed is and that he would never cheat comes from the same ip, given how bad the fix was.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am:
Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet.
Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one.
You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take.
Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches.
You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case.
The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof.
Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past.
The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad.
On March 16 2019 18:43 NinjaNight wrote: Wow the incompetence of this tournament makes me even less confident that the investigation will be a competent one. All kinds of production issues prior to today. Then earlier today Rotti makes a tweet suggesting even he doesn't know exactly what is going on in terms of the tournament schedule. Now on what everyone thought was going to be the final day they only give us a little over 2 hours of action before ending it leaving the finals and 3rd place match for tomorrow. What offline tournament concludes a day with only a couple hours of games when there's still more left to be played? This is bizarre.
Judging by this I think the declaration of Macsed's innocence by their investigation might be inevitable. I'm seeing low quality everywhere, why should the investigation be any different?
Rottis tweet said the schedule may change depending on other games, because they share the stage with other titles. Its impossible to predict delays / fast matches so there was a possibility of schedule changes on the day.
Grand finals and third place match has always been scheduled forSunday, if you thought otherwise then you have bad information. Its been public knowledge for a while too. You have to understand this is a tournament with more than just SC2 and so the schedule reflects that.
What offline tournanent concludes a day with only two hours played when there is more to be played? GSL maybe? They have days of 2 BO5 or 1 BO7. Its really not that ridiculous
On March 16 2019 18:38 sertas wrote: Ive checked this thread a few time and i keep seeing people with 0-10 posts coming here giving super stupid reasons to defend macsed. I wonder how many of these accounts are macsed himself, just saying. Should be looked into who this guy thats making 10+ accounts to come here and write stuff is.
If the arguments are 'super stupid' they should be quite easy for you to dismantle. I mean, really, think about it, chief -- you're the one who's now arguing on the basis of post counts and essentially suggesting that there is a conspiracy... and yet... we're supposed to be the stupid ones?
If you defend macssed and think this wasnt matchfixing you are not the brightest person. Also wouldnt surprise me if all these 1 post guys giving long statements what an amazing guy macsed is and that he would never cheat comes from the same ip, given how bad the fix was.
Yeah, of course, man. MacSed with the multi-account damage control propaganda campaign, but also too stupid to make his loss look as convincing as possible. Match fixed games don't look match fixed. That's how people get away with them for so long. Even the best player in the world can play an absolute trash can of a game from time to time.
Some of my worst games are when I didn't take my opponent seriously at all.
On March 16 2019 18:43 NinjaNight wrote: Wow the incompetence of this tournament makes me even less confident that the investigation will be a competent one. All kinds of production issues prior to today. Then earlier today Rotti makes a tweet suggesting even he doesn't know exactly what is going on in terms of the tournament schedule. Now on what everyone thought was going to be the final day they only give us a little over 2 hours of action before ending it leaving the finals and 3rd place match for tomorrow. What offline tournament concludes a day with only a couple hours of games when there's still more left to be played? This is bizarre.
Judging by this I think the declaration of Macsed's innocence by their investigation might be inevitable. I'm seeing low quality everywhere, why should the investigation be any different?
Rottis tweet said the schedule may change depending on other games, because they share the stage with other titles. Its impossible to predict delays / fast matches so there was a possibility of schedule changes on the day.
Grand finals and third place match has always been scheduled forSunday, if you thought otherwise then you have bad information. Its been public knowledge for a while too. You have to understand this is a tournament with more than just SC2 and so the schedule reflects that.
What offline tournanent concludes a day with only two hours played when there is more to be played? GSL maybe? They have days of 2 BO5 or 1 BO7. Its really not that ridiculous
Agreed on Rottis tweet.
Everyone I've talked to was shocked that the day ended so early, the chat was too. Even TL calendar only had it listed for today, there's nothing tomorrow. So apparently they were taken by surprise as well.
GSL is different. I knew someone would bring that up. There you consistently have a few people in a group and the matches just take however long they take. Usually there's 4 players who duke it out to advance with multiple series. This tournament is more like IEM where you go all day. In GSL it makes sense for it to rarely conclude in only a couple hours if the games happen to be very short. Suddenly stopping WESG after only 2 series and a couple hours is the strangest thing I've ever seen in an SC2 tournament. I feel it would've been the perfect length had they also played the 3rd place match and the final.
Anyway regardless of that there have been major production issues.
I don't mean to be too harsh, this just makes me lose confidence in what we're going to get. I have still definitely enjoyed this tournament and it was worth it.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am:
Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet.
Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one.
You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take.
Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches.
You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case.
The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof.
Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past.
The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad.
Just out of curiosity - what is the evidence and official investigators you're talking about saying about the whole thing??
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am:
Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet.
Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one.
You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take.
Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches.
You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case.
The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof.
Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past.
The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad.
Just out of curiosity - what is the evidence and official investigators you're talking about saying about the whole thing??
The evidence is the lack of any action being taken. The betting site which has apparently lost thousands of dollars has not voided the bets which means they dont feel like it was suspicious & WESG had MacSed casting the chinese stream today which suggests they believe he is innocent. Also MacSeds statement bringing some more information than Seventy91 was given the build by Rail etc
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money.
What I don't get is if the evidence on offer is so bulletproof, why are people coming up with whacky ass suggestions that there's a coverup, or smurf accounts are being made to support MacSed, or that Pinnacle would worry that cancelling an otherwise massively obscure bet is going to ruin their reputation?
It doesn't seem probable MacSed's motive is greed, because his career after progaming is completely dependant on his reputation. The risk vs. reward scenario is ridiculous. Or are there people that think he made thousands upon thousands of dollars off of this? In most match fixing scenarios, the players aren't the organisers and only take an insignificant cut. Noone knows how much money had to be placed to move the betting lines as much as they did. In my experience, the betting lines on Starcraft 2 move around quite a lot because it's a low volume betting scene. So it's entirely possible this was done with thousands of dollars rather than tens of thousand. In which case the overall profit isn't really much to divvy out.
So either MacSed is legitimately the worst match fixer in the world, who somehow manages not to get picked up on by WESG, Pinnacle or anyone else. Or... MacSed played a shitty game because he didn't take his opponent seriously, got flustered, and got a well deserved smack down... and OP shouldn't have bet $300 if he couldn't bare losing it.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity?
Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money.
This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money.
Yes, but if only bets on the winning side are made, the algorithm will change the odds such that they become extremely low, making the reverse bet very attractive.
It's true that the market maker can lose money when the liquidity is low. But on betting sites that have sufficient customers, the market has enough liquidity to absorb shocks from sudden big bets.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity?
Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money.
This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious.
They would void the match if there is strong public opinion that there's matchfixing. Because they want to appear fair and attractpeople to continue betting with them.
This doesn't conclude whether matchfixing really occurred or not, because it's just the bookmaker's opinion.
Like all posts in this thread are just peoples' opinions.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money.
Yes, but if only bets on the winning side are made, the algorithm will change the odds such that they become extremely low, making the reverse bet very attractive.
It's true that the market maker can lose money when the liquidity is low. But on betting sites that have sufficient customers, the market has enough liquidity to absorb shocks from sudden big bets.
Exactly. Not voiding the bet is not great evidence.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity?
Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money.
This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious.
They would void the match if there is strong public opinion that there's matchfixing. Because they want to appear fair and attractpeople to continue betting with them.
This doesn't conclude whether matchfixing really occurred or not, because it's just the bookmaker's opinion.
Like all posts in this thread are just peoples' opinions.
This is all I’m trying to say, that it’s sad to see peoples opinions and not proof be so tainting for a guys career. There is no solid evidence on either side, yet people are posting with conspiracy theories that MacSed is making TL accounts to create support posts :’)
Through all of this I just wish people were more open minded rather than be so happy to say ‘he is 100% match fixing its not even funny’ etc. Its a bad attitude
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money.
Yes, but if only bets on the winning side are made, the algorithm will change the odds such that they become extremely low, making the reverse bet very attractive.
It's true that the market maker can lose money when the liquidity is low. But on betting sites that have sufficient customers, the market has enough liquidity to absorb shocks from sudden big bets.
Exactly. Not voiding the bet is not great evidence.
Neither is all of the speculation being thrown around
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity?
Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money.
This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious.
Pinnacle never loses money on such lines, which are moving around 1.5-2.5 . Instead, when chinese fixer did stop to bet on seventy91 winning a map, normal people gave pinnacle incredible money with buying MacSed's -1.5 (2-0 win) bet , cause in the end 2-0 of MacSed was 1.4~ . So in the end Pinnacle made a huge profit from it. Only case Pinnacle would lose money is : when stacks for single bet are big enough (500$+) , matchfixer start to bet on huge underdog with high odds 3+ , and there is no response on favorite (who is fixing ) before match starts, So in the end pinnacle loses huge money there, without counter-money from normal people
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am:
Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet.
Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one.
You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take.
Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches.
You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case.
The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof.
Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past.
The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad.
Just out of curiosity - what is the evidence and official investigators you're talking about saying about the whole thing??
The evidence is the lack of any action being taken. The betting site which has apparently lost thousands of dollars has not voided the bets which means they dont feel like it was suspicious & WESG had MacSed casting the chinese stream today which suggests they believe he is innocent. Also MacSeds statement bringing some more information than Seventy91 was given the build by Rail etc
Lack of any action being taken can be considered many things but I don't personally view it as an evidence of innocence, especially since there's no official information from the investigators. Also, do we even know how much money the betting site lost? MacSed's statement as many others pointed out in this thread can be interpreted both ways.
Having sad that, I don't disagree with you and I'm not 100% convinced MacSed did matchfix but the objective evidence that can be examined and evaluated is working against him. I suppose that's why it's hard to convince most ppl otherwise and it's perfectly understandable.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity?
Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money.
This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious.
They would void the match if there is strong public opinion that there's matchfixing. Because they want to appear fair and attractpeople to continue betting with them.
This doesn't conclude whether matchfixing really occurred or not, because it's just the bookmaker's opinion.
Like all posts in this thread are just peoples' opinions.
This is all I’m trying to say, that it’s sad to see peoples opinions and not proof be so tainting for a guys career. There is no solid evidence on either side, yet people are posting with conspiracy theories that MacSed is making TL accounts to create support posts :’)
Through all of this I just wish people were more open minded rather than be so happy to say ‘he is 100% match fixing its not even funny’ etc. Its a bad attitude
Yeah you're right, nobody can say for sure whether it's 100% matchfixing or 0% matchfixing on circumstantial evidence.
But I think it is reasonable for people to debate the following issues: 1) What is the percentage certainty (in the poster's opinion) that Macsed is matchfixing 2) What is the threshold of certainty to be considered guilty beyond reasonable doubt (90%?, 99%?)
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am:
Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet.
Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one.
You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take.
Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches.
You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case.
The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof.
Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past.
The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad.
Just out of curiosity - what is the evidence and official investigators you're talking about saying about the whole thing??
The evidence is the lack of any action being taken. The betting site which has apparently lost thousands of dollars has not voided the bets which means they dont feel like it was suspicious & WESG had MacSed casting the chinese stream today which suggests they believe he is innocent. Also MacSeds statement bringing some more information than Seventy91 was given the build by Rail etc
1) Not voiding the bet is not great evidence. It's a huge assumption that everyone would automatically void the bet if there was matchfixing
2) Of course they do, I have been saying they will almost certainly claim his innocence since the beginning. I can't see it going any other way guilty or not.
3) Macsed's statement seems contradictory as he said Rail gave him the build but there are conflicting things saying Seventy came up with the build or accidentally built that gateway in his main. This needs clarification. Besides that you really think it takes a high GM to give you a proxy zealot build? Seriously? It seems he's being mentioned purely to confuse about the matchfixing allegations
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity?
Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money.
This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious.
Appreciate you weighing in on the issue Wardi, but I don't agree with you. You make some bold statements about how betting works and how the betting sites operates without (from what I know) no actual knowledge of it. We have had people here that knows the betting scene better than you or I that has added their knowledge. See this quote for example:
On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote: If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
If this is a matchfix chances are the majority of the bets/all the bets were actually put in underground sites. That "some" of it spilled over on pinnacle signales like several people knowledgeable of the gambling scene has said that the information leaked outside of the inner circuit.
Others have also contributed with more information about roughly how pinnacles system works for figuring out betting lines to void or not and there are a lot of factors. For example if a lot of common bettors (that also usually lose a lot of money) makes a betting line skewed it is less likely to get flagged as suspicious. If information leaked outside of the circle and people that usually bet got this information and gambled? That explains perfectly how pinnacle hasn't void it.
Its important we do not spread misinformation but talk about what we actually know.
"A couple hours after placing my bet, I noticed that the line for MacSed - 1.5 had moved tremendously, from 1.34 to 2.06. This type of line movement is almost unheard of in SC2."
I bet on Starcraft 2 over the space of six months (checking betting lines multiple times a day) before realising I was too emotional and prone to making degenerate bets when I lost, but I've seen line movements like that, and bigger than that before. There is a lot of dramatization in the OP. And phrases like 'huge money' are completely dependant upon how much money was already laid down on either side when you made your bet. It is rare. But 'completely unheard of' is hyperbole.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity?
Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money.
This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious.
They would void the match if there is strong public opinion that there's matchfixing. Because they want to appear fair and attractpeople to continue betting with them.
This doesn't conclude whether matchfixing really occurred or not, because it's just the bookmaker's opinion.
Like all posts in this thread are just peoples' opinions.
This is all I’m trying to say, that it’s sad to see peoples opinions and not proof be so tainting for a guys career. There is no solid evidence on either side, yet people are posting with conspiracy theories that MacSed is making TL accounts to create support posts :’)
Through all of this I just wish people were more open minded rather than be so happy to say ‘he is 100% match fixing its not even funny’ etc. Its a bad attitude
The irony here is I'm very open minded, but being forced to argue powerfully against him makes it look like I'm not.
Before watching the game I expected to actually find that he's innocent and I thought I'd have to defend him on TL. After watching the game and looking at the betting line movement I came to the conclusion that there can't be any reasonable doubt he matchfixed. His statement was also poor.
I'm completely in favor of taking the investigation further and making sure we aren't missing something here. However I don't have the confidence that it will be a strong investigation. They will automatically find him innocent in my opinion.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am:
Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet.
Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one.
You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take.
Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches.
You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case.
The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof.
Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past.
The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad.
It's not "just" about a big betting line movement. The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that. Yay! Unfortunately he did so in exactly the match with the strange line movement. The only one with strange line movement.
And then people started analyzing this specific match and confirmation bias aside, it does look extremely off, even more so compared to the other 2 maps played.
The people posting in this thread aren't burdened with any power to ban or convict anyone but they can and should be allowed to ventilate their opinions on this, in my view, pretty clear cut case. Expressing a view based on the data we have isn't necessarily to be called witch hunting, even though it is damning for someone.
On March 16 2019 18:38 sertas wrote: Ive checked this thread a few time and i keep seeing people with 0-10 posts coming here giving super stupid reasons to defend macsed. I wonder how many of these accounts are macsed himself, just saying. Should be looked into who this guy thats making 10+ accounts to come here and write stuff is.
well, no macsed here, and your speculation is kind of vicious.
actually these days he spends his time, as I know, playing Autochess, CS:GO with friends on stream, and company with his wife, his family. he looks really happy and focused on his life and work, he seems like never worried about this stuff.
and today works for WESG, well prepared, and good job.
that's kind of wierd, right? we are talking about such a serious thing which will impact his whole career and life. he just say some spiritless words about the game, and that's all...... he never try his best to prove(or pretend) his innocent about this accusation...
then, you can have your explaination, maybe he's so bold and unscrupulous.
but maybe, there is another possibility that he's not the witch, he is enjoying his life because he is innocent. so he is indifferent.
On March 16 2019 19:40 Penev wrote: It's not "just" about a big betting line movement. The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that. Yay! Unfortunately he did so in exactly the match with the strange line movement. The only one with strange line movement.
And then people started analyzing this specific match and confirmation bias aside, it does look extremely off, even more so compared to the other 2 maps played.
The people posting in this thread aren't burdened with any power to ban or convict anyone but they can and should be allowed to ventilate their opinions on this, in my view, pretty clear cut case. Expressing a view based on the data we have isn't necessarily to be called witch hunting, even though it is damning for someone.
"The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that." -- What were the implied odds of Drager taking a match off Elazer and Dark?
"The only one with strange line movement." -- How do you know that? How do we know that? The only reason we know about the line movements in this case (fluctuations that I've seen before in my experience of Starcraft 2 betting (albeit for much more competitive match ups)) is because the OP was personally invested in the outcome.
On March 16 2019 19:40 Penev wrote: It's not "just" about a big betting line movement. The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that. Yay! Unfortunately he did so in exactly the match with the strange line movement. The only one with strange line movement.
And then people started analyzing this specific match and confirmation bias aside, it does look extremely off, even more so compared to the other 2 maps played.
The people posting in this thread aren't burdened with any power to ban or convict anyone but they can and should be allowed to ventilate their opinions on this, in my view, pretty clear cut case. Expressing a view based on the data we have isn't necessarily to be called witch hunting, even though it is damning for someone.
"The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that." -- What were the implied odds of Drager taking a match off Elazer and Dark?
"The only one with strange line movement." -- How do you know that? How do we know that? The only reason we know about the line movements in this case (fluctuations that I've seen before in my experience of Starcraft 2 betting (albeit for much more competitive match ups)) is because the OP was personally invested in the outcome.
The only one with strange line movement in the 5 games Seventy91 played. Who is a player that is going to have a hard time winning a game vs some posters in this very thread and I don't mean Snute. You cannot compare a player like Drager to someone of this level.
The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
On March 16 2019 19:40 Penev wrote: It's not "just" about a big betting line movement. The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that. Yay! Unfortunately he did so in exactly the match with the strange line movement. The only one with strange line movement.
And then people started analyzing this specific match and confirmation bias aside, it does look extremely off, even more so compared to the other 2 maps played.
The people posting in this thread aren't burdened with any power to ban or convict anyone but they can and should be allowed to ventilate their opinions on this, in my view, pretty clear cut case. Expressing a view based on the data we have isn't necessarily to be called witch hunting, even though it is damning for someone.
"The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that." -- What were the implied odds of Drager taking a match off Elazer and Dark?
"The only one with strange line movement." -- How do you know that? How do we know that? The only reason we know about the line movements in this case (fluctuations that I've seen before in my experience of Starcraft 2 betting (albeit for much more competitive match ups)) is because the OP was personally invested in the outcome.
The only one with strange line movement in the 5 games Seventy91 played. Who is a player that is going to have a hard time winning a game vs some posters in this very thread and I don't mean Snute. You cannot compare a player like Drager to someone of this level.
The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
I agree with this, the likelihood of this being chance is very very small.
We have the following proof in my opinion. - The betting line showed unusual movement towards almost all the bets favoring Seventy taking a map off of Macsed even though that would be a huge incredible upset. Biggest of the tournament without a doubt (and yes I know of Marus 0-2). This only happened for that one game versus Macsed were the outcome mirrored the bet. - In the actual game Macsed loses on purpose, there is no way to argue for anything else unless he was having a seizure or similar. The judge says Macsed played as normal and Macsed himself never claims he was having a heartattack or similar. - Macsed himself in his statements denies that he lost on purpose and doesn't even try to explain any of the XX amount of mistakes he made that not even a gold leaguer would do.
We can discuss if he is guilty of matchfixing, we can discuss if we should consider him innocent unless proven guilty but most of us can agree. During a game where the betting line moved unnaturally and showed mind baffling odds for Seventy taking that map (it was the second map) Macsed lost on purpose and later on denies it.
I cannot see any other option then that he matchfixed, for whatever other reason would he lose on purpose and then lie about it?
Edit: Don't forget he played like a champ in game 3.
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
The majority of this guy's 20 posts have been in this thread alone. That alone should tell you something.
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
The majority of this guy's 20 posts have been in this thread alone. That alone should tell you something.
It does but there's still value in giving a clear response. It's a public thread.
I will be not surprised , if Wardi was the one , who did matchfix with MacSed's map against Seventy91, and then he promised MacSed those money in real cash , no bank transfers required. Wardi seems to be pretty known with pinnacle He defends that miserable chinese fixer with no reason, game was thrown 1000% , Wardi with all his 5k MMR experience won't ever find an excuse for MacSed to wall-off three times in a row with a photon cannon. Im also super well known with Pinnacle's system and i can guarantee , Pinnacle will find suspicious activity and void your bet only if tens thousands of dollars were lost by Pinnacle there. Only if they are negative balanced. And as i written above that match was positive in cash for Pinnacle, as more people did bet on MacSed's 2-0 win, than on Seventy91's map.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
This is incorrect. A reputable betting site would never, and I stress, never, void bets because it lost money. That would be extremely bad for the site. There would be tons of angry gamblers how would claim they got robbed out of money, because the site can't take losses. So I'm stressing, that is completely false. Only time they would ever void bets is because they want to protect customers.
When Pinnacle voided the bets during 2015 match fixing scandal (you can read about it here: 2015 Match-Fixing Scandal), the games hadn't begun yet or winnings paid out. The threshold for voiding bets is much lower, because nobody loses money, the bets are just cancelled.
Here the automatic triggers didn't happen in Pinnacle (I have good guesses why not, but would rather not disclose them, since it gives more info how to successfully bypass them). So the winnings had already been paid out, by the time anyone even messaged them. Nobody at Pinnacle is going to look at the match, they operate on their own systems. It is highly unlikely that they would do manual review at this point.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money.
Yes, but if only bets on the winning side are made, the algorithm will change the odds such that they become extremely low, making the reverse bet very attractive.
It's true that the market maker can lose money when the liquidity is low. But on betting sites that have sufficient customers, the market has enough liquidity to absorb shocks from sudden big bets.
Exactly. Not voiding the bet is not great evidence.
Neither is all of the speculation being thrown around
I know you're not very technical but come on, try to look at the game, it's as bad as Byul vs MarineKing.
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
The majority of this guy's 20 posts have been in this thread alone. That alone should tell you something.
What does it tell you, chief? That I, the mighty MacSed, with my pristine English set up this account over a year ago knowing one day I'd need it as part of my long held plan to game fix in WESG 2019. Damn, if only such a keen investigative mind like yours didn't exist to catch me out. Truly I'd be a rich man and far beyond suspicion.
But, honestly, you witch hunters have become so desperate that you're accusing me of a malicious motivation simply because I have the gall to question whether or not you're right. And now you've got a fella accusing Wardii of orchestrating the whole thing.
I could be wrong. But do you know who I deeply distrust? People with the emotional depth of toddlers who are one thousand percent sure they're right and resort to personal attacks and conspiracy theories to discredit people who disagree with them because they lack the mental faculties to form a cogent counter argument.
Those people, I think, should not be the ones managing the gallows.
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
I'm just responding to the point as you raised it. I fully admit I could be wrong, and have never said there shouldn't be an investigation. Fact is half of you would happily destroy his life without any investigation or claim if there is one the fix is already in. That's what I take issue with.
On March 16 2019 18:38 sertas wrote: Ive checked this thread a few time and i keep seeing people with 0-10 posts coming here giving super stupid reasons to defend macsed. I wonder how many of these accounts are macsed himself, just saying. Should be looked into who this guy thats making 10+ accounts to come here and write stuff is.
If the arguments are 'super stupid' they should be quite easy for you to dismantle. I mean, really, think about it, chief -- you're the one who's now arguing on the basis of post counts and essentially suggesting that there is a conspiracy... and yet... we're supposed to be the stupid ones?
If you defend macssed and think this wasnt matchfixing you are not the brightest person. Also wouldnt surprise me if all these 1 post guys giving long statements what an amazing guy macsed is and that he would never cheat comes from the same ip, given how bad the fix was.
Yeah, of course, man. MacSed with the multi-account damage control propaganda campaign, but also too stupid to make his loss look as convincing as possible. Match fixed games don't look match fixed. That's how people get away with them for so long. Even the best player in the world can play an absolute trash can of a game from time to time.
Some of my worst games are when I didn't take my opponent seriously at all.
I don't want to participate the conversation again, but clearly, I was taken as "MacSed" as well. Just want to add a few more words:
Come on... If the True MacSed has my level of English, the conversation should have ended way earlier. He can come and clear his own name. But the truth is, most people working in the Chinese SC2 Community feel themselves incompetent in English skills (remember F91's "said calculation" joke), and that's why when things like this broke out, Chinese players cannot participate in the conversation...
This account is a new account, but if you see my posts, you can clearly see the info I'm offering to help folks understand why Sed would be an idiot if he choose to match-fix with an unknown foreign player, take such humiliation for small money (otherwise, big trans-border flow will be recorded by China's finance system for sure). I would be really surprised that a 30+ would be that stupid.
Lots of Chinese SC2 fans did not appreciate socio-cultural contexts in the West, however, what I feel here at TL is the same, people just so ignorant that when someone come in offering additional info (Wardi's comment on the way offline event is scheduled is a great example, thanks man), they just turn their heads away.
On March 17 2019 00:07 PaulB1337 wrote: I will be not surprised , if Wardi was the one , who did matchfix with MacSed's map against Seventy91, and then he promised MacSed those money in real cash , no bank transfers required. Wardi seems to be pretty known with pinnacle He defends that miserable chinese fixer with no reason, game was thrown 1000% , Wardi with all his 5k MMR experience won't ever find an excuse for MacSed to wall-off three times in a row with a photon cannon. Im also super well known with Pinnacle's system and i can guarantee , Pinnacle will find suspicious activity and void your bet only if tens thousands of dollars were lost by Pinnacle there. Only if they are negative balanced. And as i written above that match was positive in cash for Pinnacle, as more people did bet on MacSed's 2-0 win, than on Seventy91's map.
How are you so knowledgeable about pinnacles bet voiding criteria and by what measure can you guarantee it? Do you work for them? Are you the one setting their policy?
This is my problem. When people start talking absolute conjecture and try to stamp it with a guarantee. And then try to use their self stamped 'facts' to support their argument. I think if Pinnacle put a bet up on whether you actually have information to back up what you're saying the odds would be long, boyo. But by all means prove me wrong with some actual self supporting evidence.
On March 17 2019 00:07 PaulB1337 wrote: I will be not surprised , if Wardi was the one , who did matchfix with MacSed's map against Seventy91, and then he promised MacSed those money in real cash , no bank transfers required. Wardi seems to be pretty known with pinnacle He defends that miserable chinese fixer with no reason, game was thrown 1000% , Wardi with all his 5k MMR experience won't ever find an excuse for MacSed to wall-off three times in a row with a photon cannon. Im also super well known with Pinnacle's system and i can guarantee , Pinnacle will find suspicious activity and void your bet only if tens thousands of dollars were lost by Pinnacle there. Only if they are negative balanced. And as i written above that match was positive in cash for Pinnacle, as more people did bet on MacSed's 2-0 win, than on Seventy91's map.
How are you so knowledgeable about pinnacles bet voiding criteria and by what measure can you guarantee it? Do you work for them? Are you the one setting their policy?
This is my problem. When people start talking absolute conjecture and try to stamp it with a guarantee. And then try to use their self stamped 'facts' to support their argument. I think if Pinnacle put a bet up on whether you actually have information to back up what you're saying the odds would be long, boyo. But by all means prove me wrong with some actual self supporting evidence.
I did several thousand bets on starcraft 2 in 2017-2019, i know very well, how pinnacle reacts on korean matchfix
On March 17 2019 00:07 PaulB1337 wrote: I will be not surprised , if Wardi was the one , who did matchfix with MacSed's map against Seventy91, and then he promised MacSed those money in real cash , no bank transfers required. Wardi seems to be pretty known with pinnacle He defends that miserable chinese fixer with no reason, game was thrown 1000% , Wardi with all his 5k MMR experience won't ever find an excuse for MacSed to wall-off three times in a row with a photon cannon. Im also super well known with Pinnacle's system and i can guarantee , Pinnacle will find suspicious activity and void your bet only if tens thousands of dollars were lost by Pinnacle there. Only if they are negative balanced. And as i written above that match was positive in cash for Pinnacle, as more people did bet on MacSed's 2-0 win, than on Seventy91's map.
How are you so knowledgeable about pinnacles bet voiding criteria and by what measure can you guarantee it? Do you work for them? Are you the one setting their policy?
This is my problem. When people start talking absolute conjecture and try to stamp it with a guarantee. And then try to use their self stamped 'facts' to support their argument. I think if Pinnacle put a bet up on whether you actually have information to back up what you're saying the odds would be long, boyo. But by all means prove me wrong with some actual self supporting evidence.
I did several thousand bets on starcraft 2 in 2017-2019, i know very well, how pinnacle reacts on korean matchfix
And how does that give you insight? I've had bets voided, doesn't mean I know shit about what they'd do in every situation. What their investigation involves. Etc. Etc.
I bet probably 100 times bigger amounts of money , than you do, i know how deep every event can be on pinnacle, and i can analyze deepness/pinnacle's money loss/obviousness of matchfix , how all this collide and results in beeing voided.
Reading this surreal conversation, I imagined the ending scene of V for Vendetta with everyone wearing a MacSed mask and Team Liquid in the Parliament's place.
Whereas the idea of MacSed suddenly creating multiple accounts to defend himself on this thread is hilarious, you guys have gone too far accusing Wardi to be the one who actually made the bet simply because he doesn't believe the matchfixing happened; that's a low and actually pretty serious accusation you should not dare throwing at someone without having no evidence at all.
I personally find the game MacSed lost suspicious and the various explanations in favor of mafchfixing quite convincing, especially because of the weird coincidence that unlikely result was paying so well on Pinnacle; something weird and unclear happened.
However, we should wait for appropriate investigations to be held before judging MacSed effectively is guilt of matchfixing; screaming for ban this way without retaining doubts before any conclusion is drawn by the competent authorities is the first step in ruining the career and the reputation of a possibly innocent player.
On March 17 2019 02:17 PaulB1337 wrote: I bet probably 100 times bigger amounts of money , than you do, i know how deep every event can be on pinnacle, and i can analyze deepness/pinnacle's money loss/obviousness of matchfix , how all this collide and results in beeing voided.
But you don't work for Pinnacle. You're not a bookmaker. You don't work for any betting company. You don't work in an eSports betting department. Maybe you have more insight than the average Joe. But you can't guarantee anything. It's an opinion based from anecdotal experience, no matter how much experience. Saying you can guarantee it is just untrue. And that's why I distrust you.
On March 17 2019 02:20 Xain0n wrote: Reading this surreal conversation, I imagined the ending scene of V for Vendetta with everyone wearing a MacSed mask and Team Liquid in the Parliament's place.
Whereas the idea of MacSed suddenly creating multiple accounts to defend himself on this thread is hilarious, you guys have gone too far accusing Wardi to be the one who actually made the bet simply because he doesn't believe the matchfixing happened; that's a low and actually pretty serious accusation you should not dare throwing at someone without having no evidence at all.
I personally find the game MacSed lost suspicious and the various explanations in favor of mafchfixing quite convincing, especially because of the weird coincidence that unlikely result was paying so well on Pinnacle; something weird and unclear happened.
However, we should wait for appropriate investigations to be held before judging MacSed effectively is guilt of matchfixing; screaming for ban this way without retaining doubts before any conclusion is drawn by the competent authorities is the first step in ruining the career and the reputation of a possibly innocent player.
The funny thing is Wardi is probably about the only person on this forum who would recognise my name cause I've donated to his channel before. Coincidence? 🤔🕵️♂️
On March 17 2019 02:17 PaulB1337 wrote: I bet probably 100 times bigger amounts of money , than you do, i know how deep every event can be on pinnacle, and i can analyze deepness/pinnacle's money loss/obviousness of matchfix , how all this collide and results in beeing voided.
But you don't work for Pinnacle. You're not a bookmaker. You don't work for any betting company. You don't work in an eSports betting department. Maybe you have more insight than the average Joe. But you can't guarantee anything. It's an opinion based from anecdotal experience, no matter how much experience. Saying you can guarantee it is just untrue. And that's why I distrust you.
I work with several bookmakers in my country, but im not bookmaker myself, i just know what rules they based on. Bookmaker doesnt have mouth , he cant talk, but people who are close with administration of bookmaker can. And im one of them, so i'm probably most respective user here , if we reffer to betting companies.
All right. Things are getting ridiculous. Now everyone doesn't agree to put macsed in jail is either chinese or involved. And organizer which sponsors 240k prizepool forces a commentator to match-fix for a few thousend dirty money. If you really know how far betting sites are corrupted, you better spend your money for some good use.
This thread should be closed soon. Arguments about the event have been made. There are not much left for us to discuss but attack eachother. Let's wait if the official investigation finds something.
Betting thing aside, this was the worst game I have seen from any pro player in 9 years of watching sc2. The excuse he gives isn't some of problem with lag or distress. He just plays dumb. He has a build order advantage throughout the game (don't think he doesn't know that) and makes unimaginable errors consistently and repeatedly (literally the same mistakes repeated after trial and error). Now returning to the issue, he did this in a game that also happened to have an outlandish bet for him to lose a map. I wonder if we would even be talking about this, if it wasn't for Powerfoe losing his bet. There is more than enough evidence for me, I'm all for protecting players, but not when the evidence is overwhelmingly against you. People play bad games, people make mistakes, people lose to much weaker opponents, but not like this. Just because he doesn't admit it, doesn't mean hes innocent. I'm not sure there has been a more obvious incident before honestly, maybe someone can prove me wrong (game-play wise).
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity?
Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money.
This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious.
They would void the match if there is strong public opinion that there's matchfixing. Because they want to appear fair and attractpeople to continue betting with them.
This doesn't conclude whether matchfixing really occurred or not, because it's just the bookmaker's opinion.
Like all posts in this thread are just peoples' opinions.
This is all I’m trying to say, that it’s sad to see peoples opinions and not proof be so tainting for a guys career. There is no solid evidence on either side, yet people are posting with conspiracy theories that MacSed is making TL accounts to create support posts :’)
Through all of this I just wish people were more open minded rather than be so happy to say ‘he is 100% match fixing its not even funny’ etc. Its a bad attitude
Does the word "solid" have a different meaning in Britain than it does here in the U.S.? Because the evidence we have absolutely meets the level of solid. I'd characterize it as "beyond a reasonable doubt" which is the standard for a conviction in a criminal trial and that's without anything other than the betting line, his play throughout the series, and his non-explanation explanation. Bank records or communication between the parties is only necessary for people who don't understand betting lines and Elo ratings.
One of the reason why player's feel like they can match fix with impunity is we have public figures white knighting them regardless of the evidence.
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
Fact is half of you would happily destroy his life without any investigation or claim if there is one the fix is already in. That's what I take issue with.
A statement like this is just as ridiculous as the "Wardi is in on it" one.
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
Fact is half of you would happily destroy his life without any investigation or claim if there is one the fix is already in. That's what I take issue with.
A statement like this is just as ridiculous as the "Wardi is in on it" one.
Read the thread. Literally seen multiple people making statements to this affect.
it seems this thread has been mucked and muddled by those who really believe macsed forgot how to play for a single game and reverted back to bronze league only return to form.
in that case, no more arguments. obviously no one will be convinced off of their position. sad thing is that there probably won't be a definitive conclusion to the investigation nor a confession so that's pretty much that. i will say though that most tournament organizers in the know outside of china will not TOUCH macsed after this and might hurt chinese participation in non-chinese events moving forward
On March 17 2019 03:05 p1cass0 wrote: If you really know how far betting sites are corrupted, you better spend your money for some good use.
What do you mean by that?
i think he means that you shouldn't gamble on corrupt gambling sites. but if you are that aware of it and can see it and hedge it then i don't think anyone would argue with success
On March 17 2019 03:08 RLRTurkeyDano wrote: Betting thing aside, this was the worst game I have seen from any pro player in 9 years of watching sc2. The excuse he gives isn't some of problem with lag or distress. He just plays dumb. He has a build order advantage throughout the game (don't think he doesn't know that) and makes unimaginable errors consistently and repeatedly (literally the same mistakes repeated after trial and error). Now returning to the issue, he did this in a game that also happened to have an outlandish bet for him to lose a map. I wonder if we would even be talking about this, if it wasn't for Powerfoe losing his bet. There is more than enough evidence for me, I'm all for protecting players, but not when the evidence is overwhelmingly against you. People play bad games, people make mistakes, people lose to much weaker opponents, but not like this. Just because he doesn't admit it, doesn't mean hes innocent. I'm not sure there has been a more obvious incident before honestly, maybe someone can prove me wrong (game-play wise).
Completely agree. Wouldn't you say he literally played at a platinum level or lower this game? Simply impossible for a pro to play like this if they aren't trying to lose.
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
Fact is half of you would happily destroy his life without any investigation or claim if there is one the fix is already in. That's what I take issue with.
A statement like this is just as ridiculous as the "Wardi is in on it" one.
Read the thread. Literally seen multiple people making statements to this affect.
Multiple people is half now, I see. Another fact learned.
Also Instead of telling people to read threads I'd advice you to inform yourself about a topic first before you post. You didn't know about Macsed's opponents' very low level for instance that basically makes any volatility argument mute and you could have gotten that from the OP even.
On March 16 2019 10:47 SolaR- wrote: lol i know its subtle but i still think building the pylon when he already had like 20 free supply was the most telling.
i agree. it's like a panic move that any protoss makes when they don't know what to do. but the fact is he knew exactly what to do he was just playing stupid. i think the thrown match is a forgone conclusion but i don't see the merit in continuing this discussion.. no need to convince the 10 post count posters that say he had amnesia or whatever
edit: if you think the caster(s) are in on it.. then damn you are really lost
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
Fact is half of you would happily destroy his life without any investigation or claim if there is one the fix is already in. That's what I take issue with.
A statement like this is just as ridiculous as the "Wardi is in on it" one.
Read the thread. Literally seen multiple people making statements to this affect.
Multiple people is half now, I see. Another fact learned.
Also Instead of telling people to read threads I'd advice you to inform yourself about a topic first before you post. You didn't know about Macsed's opponents' very low level for instance that basically makes any volatility argument mute and you could have gotten that from the OP even.
Yeah. Multiple people is half when I'm referencing the people still posting in the thread actively, which is a handful. Don't be so salty, pal.
I said mirror match ups were perceived as volatile and that people would make a punt on protoss v protoss over another match up. The issue appears to be your reading comprehension. It's well established throughout the thread that there was a large skill disparity.
This whole incident seems to be getting more attention than the entire Chinese scene has received from this forum in the last few years.
Looks to me like some "passionate fans" of the game are more passionate in gambling odds and accusing progamers based on their own objective perception than the game itself, for reasons beyond my comprehension.
On March 17 2019 04:52 yht9657 wrote: This whole incident seems to be getting more attention than the entire Chinese scene has received from this forum in the last few years.
Looks to me like some "passionate fans" of the game are more passionate in gambling odds and accusing progamers based on their own objective perception than the game itself, for reasons beyond my comprehension.
On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
Fact is half of you would happily destroy his life without any investigation or claim if there is one the fix is already in. That's what I take issue with.
A statement like this is just as ridiculous as the "Wardi is in on it" one.
Read the thread. Literally seen multiple people making statements to this affect.
Multiple people is half now, I see. Another fact learned.
Also Instead of telling people to read threads I'd advice you to inform yourself about a topic first before you post. You didn't know about Macsed's opponents' very low level for instance that basically makes any volatility argument mute and you could have gotten that from the OP even.
Yeah. Multiple people is half when I'm referencing the people still posting in the thread actively, which is a handful. Don't be so salty, pal.
I said mirror match ups were perceived as volatile and that people would make a punt on protoss v protoss over another match up. The issue appears to be your reading comprehension. It's well established throughout the thread that there was a large skill disparity.
Spare me the pointless nit picking.
Point is you don't understand what facts are. I must say it was funny to see you immediately follow that up with a wrongly used "literally" though. I also had a little chuckle when you accused me of "poor reading comprehension" after telling me to read the thread to find certain type of posts of which I already gave an example myself.
Anyway I hope a proper investigation is being conducted and I will have peace with whatever outcome.
On March 17 2019 04:52 yht9657 wrote: This whole incident seems to be getting more attention than the entire Chinese scene has received from this forum in the last few years.
Looks to me like some "passionate fans" of the game are more passionate in gambling odds and accusing progamers based on their own objective perception than the game itself, for reasons beyond my comprehension.
so you're saying it wasn't a throw
I wasn't saying anything. This very comment of yours is you interpreting others' words with your objective perception.
On March 17 2019 04:52 yht9657 wrote: This whole incident seems to be getting more attention than the entire Chinese scene has received from this forum in the last few years.
Looks to me like some "passionate fans" of the game are more passionate in gambling odds and accusing progamers based on their own objective perception than the game itself, for reasons beyond my comprehension.
so you're saying it wasn't a throw
I wasn't saying anything. This very comment of yours is you interpreting others' words with your objective perception.
I showed a friend of mine this game, told him not to read the comments just watch the video after the game he asked "was this a gold league game i dont get it" to which i told him "believe it or not the cannon rushing protoss is a 6500mmr player, and the other is in like diamond 2/3" and he even asked how people could say something like this isnt a fixed game.
He may not be, most telling for me is how dominate he was in G1/3 then completely shits the bed on G2 and plays like a first timer or something
On March 17 2019 04:52 yht9657 wrote: This whole incident seems to be getting more attention than the entire Chinese scene has received from this forum in the last few years.
Looks to me like some "passionate fans" of the game are more passionate in gambling odds and accusing progamers based on their own objective perception than the game itself, for reasons beyond my comprehension.
They are almost completely disconnected from the western community due to the language barrier and are mediocre at the game so of course they would have to deliver some big news/events worthy of discussion to get our attention.
On March 17 2019 04:52 yht9657 wrote: This whole incident seems to be getting more attention than the entire Chinese scene has received from this forum in the last few years.
Looks to me like some "passionate fans" of the game are more passionate in gambling odds and accusing progamers based on their own objective perception than the game itself, for reasons beyond my comprehension.
so you're saying it wasn't a throw
I wasn't saying anything. This very comment of yours is you interpreting others' words with your objective perception.
it's a simple yes/no question
And why should I answer it? I do not work for either WESG or Pinnacle nor do I know anything about what actually happened to that game, unlike common Internet mob I tend not to jump to any conclusions before formal investigation is over or any concrete evidence shows up.
On March 17 2019 04:52 yht9657 wrote: This whole incident seems to be getting more attention than the entire Chinese scene has received from this forum in the last few years.
Looks to me like some "passionate fans" of the game are more passionate in gambling odds and accusing progamers based on their own objective perception than the game itself, for reasons beyond my comprehension.
so you're saying it wasn't a throw
I wasn't saying anything. This very comment of yours is you interpreting others' words with your objective perception.
it's a simple yes/no question
And why should I answer it? I do not work for either WESG or Pinnacle nor do I know anything about what actually happened to that game, unlike common Internet mob I tend not to jump to any conclusions before formal investigation is over or any concrete evidence shows up.
so you don't have an opinion either way; it is 50/50 pending investigation? would love to hear your replay analysis on g2 and g3
On March 17 2019 04:52 yht9657 wrote: This whole incident seems to be getting more attention than the entire Chinese scene has received from this forum in the last few years.
Looks to me like some "passionate fans" of the game are more passionate in gambling odds and accusing progamers based on their own objective perception than the game itself, for reasons beyond my comprehension.
so you're saying it wasn't a throw
I wasn't saying anything. This very comment of yours is you interpreting others' words with your objective perception.
it's a simple yes/no question
And why should I answer it? I do not work for either WESG or Pinnacle nor do I know anything about what actually happened to that game, unlike common Internet mob I tend not to jump to any conclusions before formal investigation is over or any concrete evidence shows up.
so you don't have an opinion either way; it is 50/50 pending investigation? would love to hear your replay analysis on g2 and g3
So you are saying we can accuse people of matchfixing based on their in-game performance?
On March 17 2019 04:52 yht9657 wrote: This whole incident seems to be getting more attention than the entire Chinese scene has received from this forum in the last few years.
Looks to me like some "passionate fans" of the game are more passionate in gambling odds and accusing progamers based on their own objective perception than the game itself, for reasons beyond my comprehension.
so you're saying it wasn't a throw
I wasn't saying anything. This very comment of yours is you interpreting others' words with your objective perception.
it's a simple yes/no question
And why should I answer it? I do not work for either WESG or Pinnacle nor do I know anything about what actually happened to that game, unlike common Internet mob I tend not to jump to any conclusions before formal investigation is over or any concrete evidence shows up.
so you don't have an opinion either way; it is 50/50 pending investigation? would love to hear your replay analysis on g2 and g3
So you are saying we can accuse people of matchfixing based on their in-game performance?
yes i've choked in a streamed game before. i didn't choke the same way 3 times. i'm not insane.
On March 17 2019 04:52 yht9657 wrote: This whole incident seems to be getting more attention than the entire Chinese scene has received from this forum in the last few years.
Looks to me like some "passionate fans" of the game are more passionate in gambling odds and accusing progamers based on their own objective perception than the game itself, for reasons beyond my comprehension.
so you're saying it wasn't a throw
I wasn't saying anything. This very comment of yours is you interpreting others' words with your objective perception.
it's a simple yes/no question
And why should I answer it? I do not work for either WESG or Pinnacle nor do I know anything about what actually happened to that game, unlike common Internet mob I tend not to jump to any conclusions before formal investigation is over or any concrete evidence shows up.
so you don't have an opinion either way; it is 50/50 pending investigation? would love to hear your replay analysis on g2 and g3
So you are saying we can accuse people of matchfixing based on their in-game performance?
Yea I'd say we can unless you think using all your workers to destroy your own CC/Hatch/Nexus when the game starts is perfectly acceptable =P
It is worth noticing that Chinese SC players have a long history of match-fixing. Domestically, Chinese players such as Punk, Coffee, Silky, Jin, Park, and BreakingGG have been temporarily or permanently banned for match-fixing in Chinese domestic SC league. Internationally, Cyan and Jieshi were banned from WCS for match-fixing for winter 2019.
On March 17 2019 11:02 ChinClassic wrote: It is worth noticing that Chinese SC players have a long history of match-fixing. Domestically, Chinese players such as Punk, Coffee, Silky, Jin, Park, and BreakingGG have been temporarily or permanently banned for match-fixing in Chinese domestic SC league. Internationally, Cyan and Jieshi were banned from WCS for match-fixing for winter 2019.
Yes, along with a long list of Korean players, as well as Special, who got banned for three month because of doing similar things like Cyan and Jieshi. Shall we start to clean the SC2 scene by banning all Korean players, since they have the most match-fixers? You are being racist here.
Also, the more interesting thing is that you are being racist against your own race. The nickname "chin" associated with Classic is something used most often within the Chinese SC2 community. Next time when you came up a cover-up account, pick something more covert.
Associating "chin" with classic is like peanut butter being associated with jelly (even in the English speaking community)...might want to chill with the "but no ur racist!" avenue there.
On March 17 2019 11:02 ChinClassic wrote: It is worth noticing that Chinese SC players have a long history of match-fixing. Domestically, Chinese players such as Punk, Coffee, Silky, Jin, Park, and BreakingGG have been temporarily or permanently banned for match-fixing in Chinese domestic SC league. Internationally, Cyan and Jieshi were banned from WCS for match-fixing for winter 2019.
this was a point i was hoping wouldn't come up in this thread and one of the reasons i'd hope this thread would be closed by now. i am afraid this will devolve into 'should we trust any chinese x' rather than 'macsed did some questionable stuff'
no one's opinion is going to change until we get more information or see the results from the (supposedly) impending investigation but let's be honest-- we have a chinese player that would be investigated and would only hurt chinese esports and they might think they're insular and independent enough to not care what non-chinese organizers think. that's why this needs to be solved/nipped in the bud now
On March 17 2019 13:09 mierin wrote: Associating "chin" with classic is like peanut butter being associated with jelly (even in the English speaking community)...might want to chill with the "but no ur racist!" avenue there.
You misinterpret the target of my critique. "Chin" as a joke nickname to describe the player "Classic" is fun for me... I'm not that sensitive.
The point I highlight here is that this user "ChinClassic" is in fact someone from China (since this nickname is used most often within the Chinese SC2 circle). And here he is intentionally seeking to lead the discussion toward a racist attack on Chinese players in general. I just want to point out his vicious intention here. Can't understand why someone just be so eager to show his own "reverse racism".
I disagree with many people's rush to conclusion, but so far, this thread has not been disturbed too much by racist attacks, which again, is why TL is better than Reddit.
I will just respond to you since you have put more effort in your post than the other people doubting Macsed throwing the game and at least offered some arguments against his involvement in match fixing.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) how difficult it is for money flow-in and flow-out China,
Why do you assume that if this was a fixed match, the money Macsed would get would come from a foreign account? It's not like the most likely scenario is that Macsed would have bet on himself dropping a map on pinnacle. If somebody convinced him to drop a map, he could be paid in a whole lot of ways ranging from unsuspicious to plain untracable. He could be paid from a Chinese account. He could be paid with any of the cryptocurrencies circulating online. He could just be shipped a "present", say a new PC or whatever, from amazon, aliexpress, dx or whatever Chinese equivalents there are. Or he could just be paid in cash.
By the way, as others in the thread have already pointed out, it is not particularly likely that betting on pinnacle was the original idea anyway. He may have been told that the bets would be on some barely known underground betting sites or maybe even offline bets, which would not have been unknown to the sc2 fans and not have sparked any discussions. The pinnacle bets may have only happened because some idiot somewhere happened to get the knowledge of Macsed intending to throw a game and decided to earn some money by betting there.
(2) such loss would be read by Chinese SC2 fans as an absolute joke and led to long-term online harassment,
First of all, would it really be as bad as you make it out to be? He dropped a map, but he still won the series. Odds are that this would blow over sooner or later. It has been a couple of days already, is Macsed being a total noob for dropping a game against Seventy the hot topic on Chinese sc2 sites? And then, would he really care if a bunch of sc2 fans are mocking him? Maybe, he cares more about whatever money he would get from match fixing? Never mind that he has effectively moved on from sc2 into other games (as you said), so does he really care about sc2 fans' opinions?
(3) This brings my third point: for people following SCBoy's streaming, MacSed had played with them for AutoChess and CS:Go for the last month, and earlier, he also thought to switch to be a streamer of Fortnite. His main income comes from streaming various games (not only SC2) and being part of the management team of the youth team sponsored by SCBoy. He is semi-retired...... So, if you are going to pay him to match-fix with Seventy91, considering that would put his real income at risk,.......
People do stupid things all the time. Just staying on the topic of "risking his real income" in the context of starcraft, let's remember that Life was banned for match-fixing, while he was on the top of his game and at an age that would have allowed him to stay competetive for years to come. Saviour was involved in match-fixing despite being a legend in the broodwar scene. A bunch of other starcraft players were also involved in match-fixing while being on a pro-gamer salary. Just because match-fixing may be risky or stupid, does not mean that people would not still do it.
To conclude, let's wait for the official investigation result. But again, what shocked me is how so many people jumped to conclusion so quickly, and just don't care about destroying MacSed's reputation.
What kind of an investigation do you expect? Who would be interested in investigating him? The tournament organizers that would be shooting themselves in the foot with bad publicity? The police? They probably have way better things to do than waste time on some nerd that may or may not have received some irrelevant amount of money for throwing a match in some obscure pc game. Never mind that unless he has been a total moron, he would have received the money in a safe manner like cash, so you can forget about any money trail anyway. Unless some transcripts of him bragging about earning easy money by throwing show up, it is unlikely that you will see any official entity in sc2 mention the incident again.
Personally, I could not care less about Macsed throwing. I could not care less if he is banned or disgraced or whatever due to the incident (I may have had a different opinion if I had lost money because of him). It was a single game in an irrelevant series. I'd be inclined to say that people should not suffer too harsh of consequences for something that I consider a minor transgression and I'd be fine with him just moving on to other games and streaming. However, this does not change the fact that everything is pointing to him throwing the game intentionally. "Pointing" is actually an extreme understatement in my opinion. Losing in this manner to a player that has 2k+ less MMR is absurd. The way the game played out is absurd. It is also absurd in the context of how the other two games unfolded. Never mind that anyone putting any money on Macsed dropping a game to a casual player he is expected to wipe the floor with is absurd, especially when the starting betting odds are already mathematically atrocious to begin with, and especially when that somebody bet enough to move the betting line in a manner that suggests Macsed being expected to drop a map to Seventy more than 50% of the time in a bo3.
My proposal, if MacSed turned out to be innocent, these witch-hunters should make apology and compensation to MacSed, as well as being banned from TL for life.
It is unlikely that any official entity is going to be investigating Macsed anyway. It is also unlikely that he was stupid enough to leave a money trail or any records of him agreeing to throw. Furthermore it is extremely unlikely that he did not throw that game. Assuming there is an infinite number of parallel universes, there may be one where Macsed did not throw that game, but I doubt it is ours. It is probably the one where pigs fly and Satan ice-skates to work.
In 2019, especially in China, in the likely scenario that MacSed was promised payment for the matchfixing (he could have been threatened, too, potentially), that payment will or would have been paid cash OR in crypto currencies, leaving no trace.
I would be shocked if there was a money trail at all, especially since the community spotted the fishy game right away, probably before he ever got paid. There is so many untraceable way to receive money.
I believe there is enough evidence to ban him from the scene, personally. The weird betting line + the super fishy game happening at the same time leaves no reasonable doubt in my mind. Not enough evidence to be prosecuted by justice since what he did is illegal (and I am guessing punished quite harshly in China), tho.
But, nothing will happen. He won't be ban. Therefore, I seriously hope he is innocent or was forced. If he is guilty, he must feel quite guilty and scared right now and will probably never try something like that again. At least there is that.
On March 17 2019 11:02 ChinClassic wrote: It is worth noticing that Chinese SC players have a long history of match-fixing. Domestically, Chinese players such as Punk, Coffee, Silky, Jin, Park, and BreakingGG have been temporarily or permanently banned for match-fixing in Chinese domestic SC league. Internationally, Cyan and Jieshi were banned from WCS for match-fixing for winter 2019.
Yes, along with a long list of Korean players, as well as Special, who got banned for three month because of doing similar things like Cyan and Jieshi. Shall we start to clean the SC2 scene by banning all Korean players, since they have the most match-fixers? You are being racist here.
Also, the more interesting thing is that you are being racist against your own race. The nickname "chin" associated with Classic is something used most often within the Chinese SC2 community. Next time when you came up a cover-up account, pick something more covert.
Well considering the fact that the Chinese SC2 community constantly engages with online harassing and racist comments on white SC players/netizens, I switch to TL for a more open and inclusive online environment for discussion. Besides, I am simply laying out some facts regarding the amount of match-fixing that took place in China. I am not sure why that in any way is to be racist as MacSed, up to my knowledge, is a Chinese player.
On March 17 2019 11:02 ChinClassic wrote: It is worth noticing that Chinese SC players have a long history of match-fixing. Domestically, Chinese players such as Punk, Coffee, Silky, Jin, Park, and BreakingGG have been temporarily or permanently banned for match-fixing in Chinese domestic SC league. Internationally, Cyan and Jieshi were banned from WCS for match-fixing for winter 2019.
Yes, along with a long list of Korean players, as well as Special, who got banned for three month because of doing similar things like Cyan and Jieshi. Shall we start to clean the SC2 scene by banning all Korean players, since they have the most match-fixers? You are being racist here.
Also, the more interesting thing is that you are being racist against your own race. The nickname "chin" associated with Classic is something used most often within the Chinese SC2 community. Next time when you came up a cover-up account, pick something more covert.
Well considering the fact that the Chinese SC2 community constantly engages with online harassing and racist comments on white SC players/netizens, I switch to TL for a more open and inclusive online environment for discussion. Besides, I am simply laying out some facts regarding the amount of match-fixing that took place in China. I am not sure why that in any way is to be racist as MacSed, up to my knowledge, is a Chinese player.
i am confused
online harassing and racist comments on white SC players/netizens???WTF???amount of match-fixing that took place in China??? OMG
(⊙o⊙)
i know your account , i remember that you were baned several times by admin of chinese forum because of smearing and Insulting others.
yes , it is, your account '经典chin' is still baned.
well, heard that you swich to a new home, congrats.
On March 17 2019 11:02 ChinClassic wrote: It is worth noticing that Chinese SC players have a long history of match-fixing. Domestically, Chinese players such as Punk, Coffee, Silky, Jin, Park, and BreakingGG have been temporarily or permanently banned for match-fixing in Chinese domestic SC league. Internationally, Cyan and Jieshi were banned from WCS for match-fixing for winter 2019.
Yes, along with a long list of Korean players, as well as Special, who got banned for three month because of doing similar things like Cyan and Jieshi. Shall we start to clean the SC2 scene by banning all Korean players, since they have the most match-fixers? You are being racist here.
Also, the more interesting thing is that you are being racist against your own race. The nickname "chin" associated with Classic is something used most often within the Chinese SC2 community. Next time when you came up a cover-up account, pick something more covert.
Well considering the fact that the Chinese SC2 community constantly engages with online harassing and racist comments on white SC players/netizens, I switch to TL for a more open and inclusive online environment for discussion. Besides, I am simply laying out some facts regarding the amount of match-fixing that took place in China. I am not sure why that in any way is to be racist as MacSed, up to my knowledge, is a Chinese player.
i am confused
online harassing and racist comments on white SC players/netizens???WTF???amount of match-fixing that took place in China??? OMG
(⊙o⊙)
i know your account , i remember that you were baned several times by admin of chinese forum because of smearing and Insulting others.
yes , it is, your account '经典chin' is still baned.
well, heard that you swich to a new home, congrats.
On March 17 2019 11:02 ChinClassic wrote: It is worth noticing that Chinese SC players have a long history of match-fixing. Domestically, Chinese players such as Punk, Coffee, Silky, Jin, Park, and BreakingGG have been temporarily or permanently banned for match-fixing in Chinese domestic SC league. Internationally, Cyan and Jieshi were banned from WCS for match-fixing for winter 2019.
Yes, along with a long list of Korean players, as well as Special, who got banned for three month because of doing similar things like Cyan and Jieshi. Shall we start to clean the SC2 scene by banning all Korean players, since they have the most match-fixers? You are being racist here.
Also, the more interesting thing is that you are being racist against your own race. The nickname "chin" associated with Classic is something used most often within the Chinese SC2 community. Next time when you came up a cover-up account, pick something more covert.
Well considering the fact that the Chinese SC2 community constantly engages with online harassing and racist comments on white SC players/netizens, I switch to TL for a more open and inclusive online environment for discussion. Besides, I am simply laying out some facts regarding the amount of match-fixing that took place in China. I am not sure why that in any way is to be racist as MacSed, up to my knowledge, is a Chinese player.
i am confused
online harassing and racist comments on white SC players/netizens???WTF???amount of match-fixing that took place in China??? OMG
(⊙o⊙)
i know your account , i remember that you were baned several times by admin of chinese forum because of smearing and Insulting others.
yes , it is, your account '经典chin' is still baned.
well, heard that you swich to a new home, congrats.
On March 17 2019 14:30 ggrrg wrote: I will just respond to you since you have put more effort in your post than the other people doubting Macsed throwing the game and at least offered some arguments against his involvement in match fixing.
On March 15 2019 16:50 Pilot912 wrote: (1) how difficult it is for money flow-in and flow-out China,
Why do you assume that if this was a fixed match, the money Macsed would get would come from a foreign account? It's not like the most likely scenario is that Macsed would have bet on himself dropping a map on pinnacle. If somebody convinced him to drop a map, he could be paid in a whole lot of ways ranging from unsuspicious to plain untracable. He could be paid from a Chinese account. He could be paid with any of the cryptocurrencies circulating online. He could just be shipped a "present", say a new PC or whatever, from amazon, aliexpress, dx or whatever Chinese equivalents there are. Or he could just be paid in cash.
By the way, as others in the thread have already pointed out, it is not particularly likely that betting on pinnacle was the original idea anyway. He may have been told that the bets would be on some barely known underground betting sites or maybe even offline bets, which would not have been unknown to the sc2 fans and not have sparked any discussions. The pinnacle bets may have only happened because some idiot somewhere happened to get the knowledge of Macsed intending to throw a game and decided to earn some money by betting there.
(2) such loss would be read by Chinese SC2 fans as an absolute joke and led to long-term online harassment,
First of all, would it really be as bad as you make it out to be? He dropped a map, but he still won the series. Odds are that this would blow over sooner or later. It has been a couple of days already, is Macsed being a total noob for dropping a game against Seventy the hot topic on Chinese sc2 sites? And then, would he really care if a bunch of sc2 fans are mocking him? Maybe, he cares more about whatever money he would get from match fixing? Never mind that he has effectively moved on from sc2 into other games (as you said), so does he really care about sc2 fans' opinions?
(3) This brings my third point: for people following SCBoy's streaming, MacSed had played with them for AutoChess and CS:Go for the last month, and earlier, he also thought to switch to be a streamer of Fortnite. His main income comes from streaming various games (not only SC2) and being part of the management team of the youth team sponsored by SCBoy. He is semi-retired...... So, if you are going to pay him to match-fix with Seventy91, considering that would put his real income at risk,.......
People do stupid things all the time. Just staying on the topic of "risking his real income" in the context of starcraft, let's remember that Life was banned for match-fixing, while he was on the top of his game and at an age that would have allowed him to stay competetive for years to come. Saviour was involved in match-fixing despite being a legend in the broodwar scene. A bunch of other starcraft players were also involved in match-fixing while being on a pro-gamer salary. Just because match-fixing may be risky or stupid, does not mean that people would not still do it.
To conclude, let's wait for the official investigation result. But again, what shocked me is how so many people jumped to conclusion so quickly, and just don't care about destroying MacSed's reputation.
What kind of an investigation do you expect? Who would be interested in investigating him? The tournament organizers that would be shooting themselves in the foot with bad publicity? The police? They probably have way better things to do than waste time on some nerd that may or may not have received some irrelevant amount of money for throwing a match in some obscure pc game. Never mind that unless he has been a total moron, he would have received the money in a safe manner like cash, so you can forget about any money trail anyway. Unless some transcripts of him bragging about earning easy money by throwing show up, it is unlikely that you will see any official entity in sc2 mention the incident again.
Personally, I could not care less about Macsed throwing. I could not care less if he is banned or disgraced or whatever due to the incident (I may have had a different opinion if I had lost money because of him). It was a single game in an irrelevant series. I'd be inclined to say that people should not suffer too harsh of consequences for something that I consider a minor transgression and I'd be fine with him just moving on to other games and streaming. However, this does not change the fact that everything is pointing to him throwing the game intentionally. "Pointing" is actually an extreme understatement in my opinion. Losing in this manner to a player that has 2k+ less MMR is absurd. The way the game played out is absurd. It is also absurd in the context of how the other two games unfolded. Never mind that anyone putting any money on Macsed dropping a game to a casual player he is expected to wipe the floor with is absurd, especially when the starting betting odds are already mathematically atrocious to begin with, and especially when that somebody bet enough to move the betting line in a manner that suggests Macsed being expected to drop a map to Seventy more than 50% of the time in a bo3.
My proposal, if MacSed turned out to be innocent, these witch-hunters should make apology and compensation to MacSed, as well as being banned from TL for life.
It is unlikely that any official entity is going to be investigating Macsed anyway. It is also unlikely that he was stupid enough to leave a money trail or any records of him agreeing to throw. Furthermore it is extremely unlikely that he did not throw that game. Assuming there is an infinite number of parallel universes, there may be one where Macsed did not throw that game, but I doubt it is ours. It is probably the one where pigs fly and Satan ice-skates to work.
As you are actually responding to the points I'm making. I'm glad to add a few more lines.
All the arguments I made here is considering MacSed as someone with normal intelligence, who won't easily take the risk to match-fix for small amount of money, or doing so by following advice from an unknown third-party.
Considering, all of the spam emails we receive on a daily basis, do you ever open them? So, if MacSed is persuaded or threatened, either it is by a huge amount of money, or from someone he can actually trust.
I maintain the Pinnacle case since so far that is the only source we know showing odd betting lines. As I pointed out in my previous posts, if there are evidence that some Chinese underground websites showing similar patterns, the probability of him match-fixed would increase for sure, since these Chinese gamblers would engage in those cash-only trades.
So, if we only judge from the case that someone using Pinnacle approached MacSed (given it's the only place so far we know has the betting line issue), then, why a Chinese gambler did not put the bet in Chinese underground websites, but by-pass all the hustles go to Pinnacle?
So, if you allow me to paraphrase the current situation, it's like a murder case: we found the suspect's finger prints on scene, the suspect has no alibi, but there are still doubts concerning his motivation (all my previous posts are emphasizing this point).
In such scenario, he is still a suspect, we could dispute the official investigation results, but that should occur after the official investigation. And at TL, folks who rushed to the conclusion are essentially proposing we ignore "procedural justice" and simply "hang the suspect". This is where I have problem with, because procedural justice is as important as resultant justice.
Hey, do you guys 'member that really weird ass game that Marineking played vs Byul? The SC community, IMHO, just let this kid slide. This will always be a 'thing' in 'E-sports'
As a disclaimer, MarineKing was always my favorite player and I tried to find a lot of excuses for him back then. But yeah, looking back this game was baaaad (especially since iirc the betting pattern on Pinnacle was equally weird? Maybe they even voided the bets then). It doesn't really surprise me that MKP wouldn't catch a blip on his minimap (maybe he thought it was an overlord), but the absence of movement at all with his reapers and the fucking 3rd CC on top of that was really dumb. Also the fake surprise on camera when the creep was under his buildings :D. Even with all that, I still think it's less obvious than what MacSed did here. At least it looked like MKP tried to micro out of that situation at the end, instead of rolling over dead (he likely knew that no matter what he did he wouldn't win at that point). Byul was a far better opponent than Seventy91, which made throwing the game a little easier I guess.
The Macsed situation is much more clear that it's matchfixing than the MarineKing one. Never seen a pro flat out do so many ridiculous things to lose the game and play so poorly against a guy he'd beat 100% of the time if he wasn't trying to lose. At least MKP could argue he simply lost because he didn't notice that proxy rather than repeatedly doing the silliest things that a pro would never do like Macsed here.
On March 18 2019 01:30 getg00d wrote: Hey, do you guys 'member that really weird ass game that Marineking played vs Byul? The SC community, IMHO, just let this kid slide. This will always be a 'thing' in 'E-sports'
Iirc they did replay analysis and found nothing suspicious and he was investigated by the police who didn't find any proof so I still give him the benefit of a doubt.
On March 18 2019 01:30 getg00d wrote: Hey, do you guys 'member that really weird ass game that Marineking played vs Byul? The SC community, IMHO, just let this kid slide. This will always be a 'thing' in 'E-sports'
Iirc they did replay analysis and found nothing suspicious and he was investigated by the police who didn't find any proof so I still give him the benefit of a doubt.
They found a lot of suspicious stuff, but the investigation ended in them not finding enough to prove his guilt.
Macseds game is 10x times worse for sure but MKPs game is also way too much on the nose in my opinion. He scouts with a reaper late pool (he now knows there is a hatch somewere on the map), he leaves the base and goes back, home. He also knows ling speed is far away, you get a reaper to scout. He realised what was going on and therefore knew that if he kept scouting it would get more and more suspicious if he sees Byul never taking his natural and still going 3 CC. Se he just backs up and never look for the proxy hatch, there is simply no logic reason for him to not scout with his reaper and he knows he must scout with it to win. Its not as conclusive as it is for Macsed and I understand they didn't think it enough it enough to ban him but it is very fishy.
Too bad WESG ended without them giving any clear information on where their investigation lead, I guess they didn't really investigate it.
On March 18 2019 01:30 getg00d wrote: Hey, do you guys 'member that really weird ass game that Marineking played vs Byul? The SC community, IMHO, just let this kid slide. This will always be a 'thing' in 'E-sports'
Iirc they did replay analysis and found nothing suspicious and he was investigated by the police who didn't find any proof so I still give him the benefit of a doubt.
They found a lot of suspicious stuff, but the investigation ended in them not finding enough to prove his guilt.
Macseds game is 10x times worse for sure but MKPs game is also way too much on the nose in my opinion. He scouts with a reaper late pool (he now knows there is a hatch somewere on the map), he leaves the base and goes back, home. He also knows ling speed is far away, you get a reaper to scout. He realised what was going on and therefore knew that if he kept scouting it would get more and more suspicious if he sees Byul never taking his natural and still going 3 CC. Se he just backs up and never look for the proxy hatch, there is simply no logic reason for him to not scout with his reaper and he knows he must scout with it to win. Its not as conclusive as it is for Macsed and I understand they didn't think it enough it enough to ban him but it is very fishy.
Too bad WESG ended without them giving any clear information on where their investigation lead, I guess they didn't really investigate it.
Well... didn't Macsed cast the finals? That should give us our answer right there on what their organization thought about the situation.
On March 18 2019 01:30 getg00d wrote: Hey, do you guys 'member that really weird ass game that Marineking played vs Byul? The SC community, IMHO, just let this kid slide. This will always be a 'thing' in 'E-sports'
Iirc they did replay analysis and found nothing suspicious and he was investigated by the police who didn't find any proof so I still give him the benefit of a doubt.
They found a lot of suspicious stuff, but the investigation ended in them not finding enough to prove his guilt.
Macseds game is 10x times worse for sure but MKPs game is also way too much on the nose in my opinion. He scouts with a reaper late pool (he now knows there is a hatch somewere on the map), he leaves the base and goes back, home. He also knows ling speed is far away, you get a reaper to scout. He realised what was going on and therefore knew that if he kept scouting it would get more and more suspicious if he sees Byul never taking his natural and still going 3 CC. Se he just backs up and never look for the proxy hatch, there is simply no logic reason for him to not scout with his reaper and he knows he must scout with it to win. Its not as conclusive as it is for Macsed and I understand they didn't think it enough it enough to ban him but it is very fishy.
Too bad WESG ended without them giving any clear information on where their investigation lead, I guess they didn't really investigate it.
Well... didn't Macsed cast the finals? That should give us our answer right there on what their organization thought about the situation.
Can't rely on people with vested interest to claim his innocence to look for the truth. There is not going to be any decent investigation in this case. We would need the police involved and that's not going to happen.
On March 18 2019 01:30 getg00d wrote: Hey, do you guys 'member that really weird ass game that Marineking played vs Byul? The SC community, IMHO, just let this kid slide. This will always be a 'thing' in 'E-sports'
Iirc they did replay analysis and found nothing suspicious and he was investigated by the police who didn't find any proof so I still give him the benefit of a doubt.
They found a lot of suspicious stuff, but the investigation ended in them not finding enough to prove his guilt.
Macseds game is 10x times worse for sure but MKPs game is also way too much on the nose in my opinion. He scouts with a reaper late pool (he now knows there is a hatch somewere on the map), he leaves the base and goes back, home. He also knows ling speed is far away, you get a reaper to scout. He realised what was going on and therefore knew that if he kept scouting it would get more and more suspicious if he sees Byul never taking his natural and still going 3 CC. Se he just backs up and never look for the proxy hatch, there is simply no logic reason for him to not scout with his reaper and he knows he must scout with it to win. Its not as conclusive as it is for Macsed and I understand they didn't think it enough it enough to ban him but it is very fishy.
Too bad WESG ended without them giving any clear information on where their investigation lead, I guess they didn't really investigate it.
Well... didn't Macsed cast the finals? That should give us our answer right there on what their organization thought about the situation.
Not really, if they had planned for Macsed to help with the cast its not weird that they don't shut him out before the investigation is done. That normally how it works, everything continues as normal until the investigation is done.
There has been I think two different people here in the thread from WESG that has said they are looking into it and that the WESG organization had taken offense at how lightly we regarded their investigation. It really sounded like they were going to look into it and come back with the result. Maybe they never did anything or maybe its still ongoing, no way for us to know, but it is weird that there still hasn't been any word.
I'd like to note, for all the people that insist that the replay as incontrovertible proof of Macsed's guilt, that Maru yesterday lost a game he very literally had 100% chance of not losing. Allegedly, he forgot that Terran buildings can fly into the corner even though he was already flying his buildings around the map. So is Maru a matchfixer now?
To be clear, I don't believe Maru matchfixed in the slightest. Nor am I saying that Macsed is totally innocent. I'm only pointing out that using in-game actions as the be all end all evidence is a hugely flawed approach. Even the casters were completely in shock over how Maru played, refer Rotti here.
The betting line is what started this whole thing and I maintain that it's far more important evidence than any replay.
On March 18 2019 07:04 pvsnp wrote: I'd like to note, for all the people that insist that the replay as incontrovertible proof of Macsed's guilt, that Maru yesterday lost a game he very literally had 100% chance of not losing. Allegedly, he forgot that Terran buildings can fly into the corner even though he was already flying his buildings around the map. So is Maru a matchfixer now?
To be clear, I don't believe Maru matchfixed in the slightest. Nor am I saying that Macsed is totally innocent. I'm only pointing out that using in-game actions as the be all end all evidence is a hugely flawed approach. Even the casters were completely in shock over how Maru played, refer Rotti here.
The betting line is what started this whole thing and I maintain that it's far more important evidence than any replay.
i appreciate your saying everyone deserves the benefit of the doubt to a certain degree. but using maru vs serral g1 is a horrible example. are you telling me one of those players wasn't clawing at every cell in their body to win that game?? look at macsed- clearly disregarding in-game evidence and general game knowledge to ensure a loss. in regards to g1 of scarlett, i myself posted that this was the first time i saw some one go from 0% win to win, but this is not comparable.
TvZ stalemate situations, you don’t know if the Zerg still has money or not. Sometimes they don’t show their hand until the Terran is out of money, I’ve seen exactly that in (admittedly not pro) Nathanias vs Bioice games where Bioice was not spending to bait Nathanias into attacking onto creep before being caught by surprise.
My interpretation was that Maru thought there was a chance Scarlett was holding a bank and he thought a draw was safer than risking a loss. Scarlett by denying the draw basically bluffed Maru into thinking she really had a trap card left in her hand.
I'm pretty sure though that when Crank talked to Maru after the game, Maru straight up said he just forgot (I believe Rotti tweeted something about this)
Which I have no idea how it happens, but apparently it did.
On March 18 2019 07:04 pvsnp wrote: I'd like to note, for all the people that insist that the replay as incontrovertible proof of Macsed's guilt, that Maru yesterday lost a game he very literally had 100% chance of not losing. Allegedly, he forgot that Terran buildings can fly into the corner even though he was already flying his buildings around the map. So is Maru a matchfixer now?
To be clear, I don't believe Maru matchfixed in the slightest. Nor am I saying that Macsed is totally innocent. I'm only pointing out that using in-game actions as the be all end all evidence is a hugely flawed approach. Even the casters were completely in shock over how Maru played, refer Rotti here.
The betting line is what started this whole thing and I maintain that it's far more important evidence than any replay.
That's a super silly comparison. There's no evidence that Maru was trying to lose that game. He doesn't know if Scarlett can make some corruptors and kill his vikings if he flies his stuff into a corner. It's also easy not to think of that when he's very busy defending and trying to figure out how to hold off Scarlett's attacks. It's a much different situation when you're an observer and you can see everything the players have, everything they're doing, their resource count, etc. Plus Maru was actually playing an amazing game for the majority of the time that took a huge effort from Scarlett to overcome.
In Macsed's case we have overwhelming evidence of him trying to lose his game. Differentiation is key here... I can't agree that using in-game actions as heavy evidence is a "very flawed approach" because if you can correctly differentiate and understand what you're really seeing Maru's game is not suspicious and Macsed's game is the most suspicious I've ever seen in 8 years of observing SC2 pro games.
Unlike Macsed, Maru had $10 000 in prize money on the line. He wanted to win and Scarlett was not 2000 MMR below him and could very reasonably beat him.
lol this is hilarious to even say,but from multiple accounts maru hadn't even considered lifting his buildings because that wasn't a win condition. what???
Rotti took a pretty strong stance in defense of Macsed today on stream. Argued with Twitch chat including TurkeyDano about cannon rushing and odds and so forth.
Now, I don't know where Rotti is getting his sources, but he cited Pinnacle's dismissal of this issue as sufficient evidence for disregarding the betting line - he actually went on a bit of a rant and apparently knows the guy that does Starcraft betting odds for Pinnacle (a former German SC2 progamer). He also mentioned 79:1 odds and $30k as the figures here. He stressed that Pinnacle is a business and does not like to lose money (duh) and has voided smaller bets than this in the past.
He also came close to accusing the people attacking Macsed of outright racism because they are overlooking Maru's loss to Scarlett, which Rotti regards as more egregious than Macsed's loss to seventy91. People trusting Maru when he says he forgot Terran buildings could fly, while also distrusting Macsed's explanation, that is. He argued that TurkeyDano has more experience with cannon rushes and the benefit of sitting back and analyzing a replay, not playing the game in real-time.
His main point seemed to be people claiming things as facts without sufficient evidence to back it up - he repeated that "people just made shit up" multiple times.
On March 19 2019 08:54 pvsnp wrote: Rotti took a pretty strong stance in defense of Macsed today on stream. Argued with Twitch chat including TurkeyDano about cannon rushing and odds and so forth.
Now, I don't know where Rotti is getting his sources, but he cited Pinnacle's dismissal of this issue as sufficient evidence for disregarding the betting line - he actually went on a bit of a rant and apparently knows the guy that does Starcraft betting odds for Pinnacle (a former German SC2 progamer). He also mentioned 79:1 odds and $30k as the figures here. He stressed that Pinnacle is a business and does not like to lose money (duh) and has voided smaller bets than this in the past.
He also came close to accusing the people attacking Macsed of outright racism because they are overlooking Maru's loss to Scarlett, which Rotti regards as more egregious than Macsed's loss to seventy91. People trusting Maru when he says he forgot Terran buildings could fly, while also distrusting Macsed's explanation, that is.
His main point seemed to be people claiming things as facts without sufficient evidence to back it up - he repeated that "people just made shit up" multiple times.
While I respect Rotti and definitely don't want to be making any accusations without any hard proof here, I'm pretty sure Rotti and MacSed are actually quite close. He talked about hanging out/practicing with them a long time ago when they were more relevant. So not sure how unbiased he can be in this.
On March 19 2019 08:54 pvsnp wrote: Rotti took a pretty strong stance in defense of Macsed today on stream. Argued with Twitch chat including TurkeyDano about cannon rushing and odds and so forth.
Now, I don't know where Rotti is getting his sources, but he cited Pinnacle's dismissal of this issue as sufficient evidence for disregarding the betting line - he actually went on a bit of a rant and apparently knows the guy that does Starcraft betting odds for Pinnacle (was a former German SC2 progamer). He also mentioned 79:1 odds and $30k as the figures here, again not sure what his sources are.
He also came close to accusing the people attacking Macsed of outright racism because they are overlooking Maru's loss to Scarlett, which Rotti regards as more egregious than Macsed's loss to seventy91. People trusting Maru when he says he forgot Terran buildings could fly, while also distrusting Macsed's explanation, that is.
His main point seemed to be people claiming things as facts without the actual evidence to back it up, and I have to say I totally agree with that.
Saw that video from Rotti as well. I would like to provide some extra insight on the betting lines:
- Rotti is right that there wasn't much action on WESG group stage matches in general, as for other matches I barely saw any significant movement. However, I can say for sure that the amount that was bet on the MacSed vs Seventy91 money line was orders of magnitude more than any other group stage match in the tournament based on the movement seen there.
- Rotti makes arguments about how MacSed's mistakes could have been genuine, and that he may have gotten too cocky in that match. I don't care about the game. To me, I made the post based on the players' MMR disparity along with the betting line difference. The game was suspicious, yes, but that's not the main reason for me making this post; I didn't even watch the game until I had already posted the thread.
- Pinnacle is not the only sportsbook that offered a spread for MacSed vs Seventy91. Some posters have indicated that there may be underground Chinese betting sites that may have traded this bet in higher volume than Pinnacle, and that Pinnacle only received comparatively fewer bets from information leaks. I believe this to be possible to likely.
- Rotti made a mistake in quoting me when he said that my $300 bet moved the line only 1 cent. To clarify, I said it moved .1 or roughly 10 cents. Because of this, his assumptions about the volume, at least on Pinnacle, would be off by a factor of 10.
- The replay is out now, so you can see this for yourself, but Rotti claimed that a Zealot at the wall distracted MacSed and caused him to lose his 2 cannon rushing Probes. However, if you watch the replay you can see that MacSed lost them before seeing the Zealot. But anyway, I will let others given an opinion on the replay, as it was the betting line that was my main concern.
He mentions that, in his opinion, Pinnacle is not a good betting site. His main argument is that he doesn't like the interface. However, any serious bettor will tell you that Pinnacle is easily the leader in terms of offshore books. Its margins are the lowest, meaning that the winrate required to be profitable in the long run is significantly easier to achieve. Obviously for a casual bettor, it may be more convenient to have a nice interface because profit is not really the #1 priority, but for people looking to make it in the long run, Pinnacle is clearly the way to go. But anyway, seeing him talk about that just really confirms to me that he is not actually that knowledgeable about in depth sports betting.
On March 19 2019 09:21 Powerfoe wrote: Another point regarding Pinnacle:
He mentions that, in his opinion, Pinnacle is not a good betting site. His main argument is that he doesn't like the interface. However, any serious bettor will tell you that Pinnacle is easily the leader in terms of offshore books. Its margins are the lowest, meaning that the winrate required to be profitable in the long run is significantly easier to achieve. Obviously for a casual bettor, it may be more convenient to have a nice interface because profit is not really the #1 priority, but for people looking to make it in the long run, Pinnacle is clearly the way to go. But anyway, seeing him talk about that just really confirms to me that he is not actually that knowledgeable about in depth sports betting.
I don't really care what his opinions on Pinnacle are, if Pinnacle is dismissing the claim that the betting line is strange that's a pretty good sign that it isn't strange.
I seem to actually be one of the people that care more about the replay than the betting odds or anything else. Dunno what the hell Rotti is talking about, like Rotti I have been watching rts games and esports in general - religiously - for decades. I played brood war at a competitive level and I've played multiple card games competitively.
I am not exaggerating when I say that this replay is the most ridiculous "professional" play I have seen (from someone who is actually regarded as having a high level of skill). This includes every other replay or vod I have seen in sc1 or sc2 where we later found out the game was a throw.
I know there's games out there like naniwa a-moving the start workers across the map. but the difference here is that Macsed was clearly trying to act like he still cared about the game.
And you know, I could have still believed there could be some sort of outside circumstances. Maybe he was having a medical emergency, and that's why he did the only thing you shouldn't do when you cannon rush and lost both probes. Maybe he just found out he lost a close family member, or maybe he was having an existential crisis, or was in depression - maybe one of these things could explain why he is opening some kind of weird halfass cannon rush vs a player of much lower caliber in a tournament for thousands and thousands of dollars.
But no. His explanation was "he tricked me, got me real good" combined with some other stuff that doesn't even make any sense and contradicts his own arguments.
Anything is possible in this world. And many people suffer from overconfidence about things they don't really know. But the reverse can be true too, and sometimes evidence is too overwhelming and it would be silly to not acknowledge it.
Also the Maru case is *completely* different. It shouldn't really need to be discussed why it is completely different, but even just as far as the terribleness of decisionmaking and execution within the games themselves - they are leagues apart.
On March 19 2019 08:54 pvsnp wrote: Rotti took a pretty strong stance in defense of Macsed today on stream. Argued with Twitch chat including TurkeyDano about cannon rushing and odds and so forth.
Now, I don't know where Rotti is getting his sources, but he cited Pinnacle's dismissal of this issue as sufficient evidence for disregarding the betting line - he actually went on a bit of a rant and apparently knows the guy that does Starcraft betting odds for Pinnacle (a former German SC2 progamer). He also mentioned 79:1 odds and $30k as the figures here. He stressed that Pinnacle is a business and does not like to lose money (duh) and has voided smaller bets than this in the past.
He also came close to accusing the people attacking Macsed of outright racism because they are overlooking Maru's loss to Scarlett, which Rotti regards as more egregious than Macsed's loss to seventy91. People trusting Maru when he says he forgot Terran buildings could fly, while also distrusting Macsed's explanation, that is. He argued that TurkeyDano has more experience with cannon rushes and the benefit of sitting back and analyzing a replay, not playing the game in real-time.
His main point seemed to be people claiming things as facts without sufficient evidence to back it up - he repeated that "people just made shit up" multiple times.
On March 19 2019 09:24 travis wrote: I seem to actually be one of the people that care more about the replay than the betting odds or anything else. Dunno what the hell Rotti is talking about, like Rotti I have been watching rts games and esports in general - religiously - for decades. I played brood war at a competitive level and I've played multiple card games competitively.
I am not exaggerating when I say that this replay is the most ridiculous "professional" play I have seen (from someone who is actually regarded as having a high level of skill). This includes every other replay or vod I have seen in sc1 or sc2 where we later found out the game was a throw.
I know there's games out there like naniwa a-moving the start workers across the map. but the difference here is that Macsed was clearly trying to act like he still cared about the game.
And you know, I could have still believed there could be some sort of outside circumstances. Maybe he was having a medical emergency, and that's why he did the only thing you shouldn't do when you cannon rush and lost both probes. Maybe he just found out he lost a close family member, or maybe he was having an existential crisis, or was in depression - maybe one of these things could explain why he is opening some kind of weird halfass cannon rush vs a player of much lower caliber in a tournament for thousands and thousands of dollars.
But no. His explanation was "he tricked me, got me real good" combined with some other stuff that doesn't even make any sense and contradicts his own arguments.
Anything is possible in this world. And many people suffer from overconfidence about things they don't really know. But the reverse can be true too, and sometimes evidence is too overwhelming.
Nah, most people here are focused on the replay. Obviously TeamLiquid is made up of mostly StarCraft players, and most of them play/watch and don't bet on the game.
However, I'm just saying that the betting line movements are far more egregious than anything that happened in that replay. If this was a betting forum, that's all people would be talking about. I've talked to people who are actually experienced in betting (not Rotti "I've bet on football since I was 18 but I don't know why Pinnacle is the market leader") and may or may not play SC2, the response I've gotten is that it's almost certainly a match fix.
On March 19 2019 09:44 hiro protagonist wrote: my question from earlier has yet to be awnserd yet:
Did anyone bet on 7091 to win a map against anyone other than macsed?
I wrote about that in the OP. The answer is no, none of the other lines had moved in that direction.
OK, so then, here is a question for everyone:
Can anyone give me a good reason why anyone would make such a large bet on such a longshot that doesn't involve matchfixing? Keep in mind, the bet was so large that the odds became 1:1, so you cant argue for "large risk, large reward" in this scenario.
My follow-up question to any that can answer for the above: Does this take into logical account the fact that no one bet for 7091 in any other match?
On March 19 2019 09:44 hiro protagonist wrote: my question from earlier has yet to be awnserd yet:
Did anyone bet on 7091 to win a map against anyone other than macsed?
I wrote about that in the OP. The answer is no, none of the other lines had moved in that direction.
OK, so then, here is a question for everyone:
Can anyone give me a good reason why anyone would make such a large bet on such a longshot that doesn't involve matchfixing? Keep in mind, the bet was so large that the odds became 1:1, so you cant argue for "large risk, large reward" in this scenario.
My follow-up question to any that can answer for the above: Does this take into logical account the fact that no one bet for 7091 in any other match?
it's been mentioned. I don't know why, but for many people in this thread the betting just doesn't matter. Maybe it's because they don't get it, but it doesn't seem to register with them. It's bizarre to watch, honestly.
On March 19 2019 09:44 hiro protagonist wrote: my question from earlier has yet to be awnserd yet:
Did anyone bet on 7091 to win a map against anyone other than macsed?
I wrote about that in the OP. The answer is no, none of the other lines had moved in that direction.
OK, so then, here is a question for everyone:
Can anyone give me a good reason why anyone would make such a large bet on such a longshot that doesn't involve matchfixing? Keep in mind, the bet was so large that the odds became 1:1, so you cant argue for "large risk, large reward" in this scenario.
My follow-up question to any that can answer for the above: Does this take into logical account the fact that no one bet for 7091 in any other match?
it's been mentioned. I don't know why, but for many people in this thread the betting just doesn't matter. Maybe it's because they don't get it, but it doesn't seem to register with them. It's bizarre to watch, honestly.
Relates to what I mentioned a few posts earlier. People are naturally going to want to talk about the topics where they are most familiar, and in this case it's in-game knowledge more than just betting.
If, insofar as I understand what other people have said, Pinnacle has already dismissed the concerns over matchfixing and is not interested in pursuing this further, isn't that the end of it?
Obviously there have not been any dramatic confessions, nor do I think any are forthcoming. At this point it looks like a "maybe, maybe not" to me, with strong but inconclusive circumstantial evidence for matchfixing. Is it plausible that Macsed was matchfixing? Sure, but there seems to be just enough grey that it might barely be the case that he wasn't. Macsed will probably not be officially punished, but has suffered a lot of damage to his reputation. At least that's my understanding.
Am I missing something or is this effectively over?
yeah unless there is an actual law enforcement investigation into esports matchfixing in China and this match gets rolled into it (which I really doubt), then I don't think we'll hear anything else.
Anyways, just a refinement - this kind of alleged situation is referred to as spot-fixing - where a player doesn't fix the result of a match but rather fixes a section of a match. Spot-fixing is much harder to police than match-fixing.
Spot-fixing is easier in certain sports - for example, in cricket, a Pakistani cricketer got caught spot-fixing for delivering a noball at a particular over.
If, insofar as I understand what other people have said, Pinnacle has already dismissed the concerns over matchfixing and is not interested in pursuing this further, isn't that the end of it?
As someone pointed out earlier due to the nature of how Pinnacle works they could've profited on this game because once they changed the odds drastically to massively improve the value of the line on Macsed it probably drew a lot of money on Macsed and balanced out the bets on each side.
Naturally they're not going to be interested in looking into the matchfixing allegations if this match didn't hurt them which I really doubt it did. Even if they lost a little it probably wasn't substantial to them.
If, insofar as I understand what other people have said, Pinnacle has already dismissed the concerns over matchfixing and is not interested in pursuing this further, isn't that the end of it?
As someone pointed out earlier due to the nature of how Pinnacle works they could've profited on this game because once they changed the odds drastically to massively improve the value of the line on Macsed it probably drew a lot of money on Macsed and balanced out the bets on each side.
Naturally they're not going to be interested in looking into the matchfixing allegations if this match didn't hurt them which I really doubt it did. Even if they lost a little it probably wasn't substantial to them.
Minus the fact that they gave a significant amount of fucks during the Proleague matchfixing scandal. But yea lets 180 on our stance on pinnacle voiding/not voiding bets because it fits the narrative this time
On March 19 2019 10:43 pvsnp wrote: Rotti aside, I don't see where this is going.
If, insofar as I understand what other people have said, Pinnacle has already dismissed the concerns over matchfixing and is not interested in pursuing this further, isn't that the end of it?
Obviously there have not been any dramatic confessions, nor do I think any are forthcoming. At this point it looks like a "maybe, maybe not" to me, with strong but inconclusive circumstantial evidence for matchfixing. Is it plausible that Macsed was matchfixing? Sure, but there seems to be just enough grey that it might barely be the case that he wasn't. Macsed will probably not be officially punished, but has suffered a lot of damage to his reputation. At least that's my understanding.
Am I missing something or is this effectively over?
If Blizzard is gutless, this is over. Even without a criminal probe or anything from Pinnacle, Blizzard can and should take action on their own. Verify the betting pattern with Pinnacle, call MacSed and see if he says anything different, then ban him for life. Doing so would probably give the Chinese police additional motivation to investigate something that is likely relatively unimportant to them.
If, insofar as I understand what other people have said, Pinnacle has already dismissed the concerns over matchfixing and is not interested in pursuing this further, isn't that the end of it?
As someone pointed out earlier due to the nature of how Pinnacle works they could've profited on this game because once they changed the odds drastically to massively improve the value of the line on Macsed it probably drew a lot of money on Macsed and balanced out the bets on each side.
Naturally they're not going to be interested in looking into the matchfixing allegations if this match didn't hurt them which I really doubt it did. Even if they lost a little it probably wasn't substantial to them.
Minus the fact that they gave a significant amount of fucks during the Proleague matchfixing scandal. But yea lets 180 on our stance on pinnacle voiding/not voiding bets because it fits the narrative this time
I don't know anything about that situation, wasn't around at the time. What I said stands and there could be plenty of reasons why they would care there but not here.
On another note the WESG replay pack has been released now. One of the top posts on SC2 reddit right now. I'm downloading and about to watch the replays of this series.
Update:
Wow. The big thing that really stood out to me seeing this replay from his POV that didn't really stand out when I watched the vod is how late his cannon rush was. By the time his 1st probe arrives outside the opponent's base to make his first proxy pylon to begin the cannon "rush" he has over 400 minerals built up. That's super late. And with a cannon rush like this where you're starting it below his base it's critical to be as early as possible. Being very late with this is a perfect way to do all in your power to make sure you don't succeed. It also doesn't look too suspicious to the average viewer who only notices the probe marching across the map and making a pylon rather than paying attention to the timing of it.
On March 19 2019 12:40 NinjaNight wrote: On another note the WESG replay pack has been released now. One of the top posts on SC2 reddit right now. I'm downloading and about to watch the replays of this series.
Update:
Wow. The big thing that really stood out to me seeing this replay from his POV that didn't really stand out when I watched the vod is how late his cannon rush was. By the time his 1st probe arrives outside the opponent's base to make his first proxy pylon to begin the cannon "rush" he has over 400 minerals built up. That's super late. And with a cannon rush like this where you're starting it below his base it's critical to be as early as possible. Being very late with this is a perfect way to do all in your power to make sure you don't succeed. It also doesn't look too suspicious to the average viewer who only notices the probe marching across the map and making a pylon rather than paying attention to the timing of it.
I just watched the replay and it looks even worse than the broadcast. The probe was sent out way too late and so he floated 200 mins~ by the time he got to Seventy's base. Then when he got in, saw a late gate, Macsed checks out the corner and saw no cyber or 2nd pylon. So what does he do? "Luls, this guy probably doing a 1 gate, no gas expand! That's super common in PvP. I should steal both his gas." - Macsed. Also, why does he control both of his probes in one hotkey? Wouldn't it be smarter to keep one on the low ground while the other one drop down cannons? Why doesn't he drop down 2-3 cannons at a time, he had enough minerals for it.
Also, the Macsed selected both his probes, a moved into a zealot and went back into his base, wonder what the logic behind that was. It's not like anything was happening at home. Honestly, if he went out and said "Yeah, I thought this guy was garbage so I just messed around and lost. Oops my bad." I'd believe that, it happens, you get cocky and you throw. But the fact that he said Rails taught Seventy91 this godly build AND he thought it was a 1 gate expand (then where is the Nexus Macsed?) makes him seem guilty, he's deflecting. I really hope WESG launch a thorough investigation into this.
Okay, this is getting out of hand and the TL administrators need to put out a statement that there is inconclusive evidence of match fixing and unless there is new evidence to further prove the OP's case, this topic needs to end and MacSed deserves the right to be presumed innocent. The TL administrators also need to say that Pinnacle did not find any wrong doing in the betting for this match.
First of all, most of us live in a society where you are presumed innocent until proven guilty. And in a court of law, you must prove beyond a reasonable doubt in order for a conviction to pass. While there are a lot of question marks in this case, there is also a lot of doubt about the OP's premise:
1. Pinnacle did not find any wrong doing or suspicion in the betting for this match. However, at WESG, Pinnacle did find suspicion for a CSGO match for 5POWER vs ENZO and did refund the betting for that match: . If the evidence for match fixing was conclusive, Pinnacle would have offered a refund, but they did not. Pinnacle merely stated that they did not find anything out of the ordinary for this match. This tells us the evidence for the CSGO match was beyond what it was for MacSed's match.
2. The replays have been released and WESG has had a chance to look into this. Don't forget that there were foreign referees and foreign staff working at WESG too. So far, WESG has not found any evidence of wrong doing by MacSed.
3. Rotti does a nice breakdown of the match: . If you follow Rotti's logic, and Rotti lays out the case very well, it is not conclusive that MacSed lost the game purposefully. In fact, if you listen to Rotti's logic, he explains how a 6K MMR player like MacSed can lose to a 4K MMR player (and Rotti is 6K himself as Protoss).
4. Finally, so many people question how a 6K player can make such basic noob mistakes. And yet we have Maru playing over $10,000 USD, making a noob mistake in his match against Scarlett. And Maru acknowledged after that he didn't think that he could draw against Scarlett, even though it was so obvious to everyone that watched his match. Yes, even a pro player who has been playing the game for 9 years, who is in contention for one of the best players of all time in SC2, who won 3 GSLs in a row, will make a noob mistake.
This is not a "beyond a reasonable doubt" case (if it were, you wouldn't have somebody like Rotti saying what he did) and at this point, since the OP's posting, there is actual doubt about the OP's case. TL admins, kindly note that if there is doubt about this case, by allowing this thread to persist and by not making an announcement about the other facts of the case, this is nothing more than defamation of MacSed. I hope that TL and the administrators act responsibly at some point because it's unfair to defame somebody in this way, especially when the evidence is inconclusive and there is doubt about the OP's case.
"Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
On March 19 2019 17:36 Charoisaur wrote: "Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
Hey everyone, WESG admin here. I'm on-site as one of the two non-Chinese referees, and by sheer coincidence I was the one to sit right behind MacSed and Seventy91 as they played their match (they sit next to each other). I'm not here to confirm or deny any suspicions, but I think it would be valuable if I offered my perspective and a bit of info in as neutral a way as I can.
- The second game in the series was won by Seventy91. I alternated looking at both players' screens during that game, and did not notice them making any errors on purpose. Seventy91 was certainly trying very hard and got frustrated if he made a misclick. MacSed looked like he did in his previous games (I'd been a ref for another of his matches before this one): focused, looking at the screen and with pro-level APM. Again: this does not prove or disprove anything, but it's not like MacSed was afk or something, or explicitly trolling. He looked serious.
- The game was very scrappy and unusual. I haven't looked at the replay, so this is from memory from what I saw yesterday. Seventy91 went for a Zealot rush with 4 (I think?) gateways, one of which was in his main (something he later told me he did by accident, and which he said helped him win the game) and three were proxied near MacSed's base. MacSed, on the other hand, went for a cannon rush. He was unable to keep Seventy91's Zealots out of his base, and his cannon rush did not progress fast enough so he ran out of money to continue and lost the game.
- I remember a moment where MacSed lost two of his probes doing the cannon rush in Seventy91's base to a Zealot. I don't know if those were all of his probes. I was looking at Seventy91's screen at that moment and remember thinking at that time that that was a blunder by MacSed. I do not know where MacSed was looking at that moment, I didn't see his screen then. The replay will probably help with this. I don't remember having any other thoughts regarding blunders or mistakes on MacSed's end during the game.
- After game two, and as we quickly went into the third game, I remember seeing that MacSed chatted briefly with someone in the StarCraft client. They were two or three brief lines, and the other person responded quickly. I don't read Chinese so I can't say what was said, but I do know that there were at least one (but possibly two) instances of censorship in his already short messages (where the client shows !@% rather than the word you typed). My interpretation of that was that MacSed was frustrated / surprised and said something that included curse words, along the lines of 'what is this shit'.
- I have collected the replays for this match, they are looked at by people from StarLadder. I also heard (but cannot yet confirm) that the Chinese are also looking into it. Once I get to the venue today I will ask around to see who is working on this, and whether MacSed is being approached or not. I do know that one of the main event organisers (great guy, fan of StarCraft), is concerned about the issue and he was one of the people to ask me to look at this topic.
This is all the relevant info I can think of right now. If anyone has any specific questions let me know. I have to say though that I'm having a hard time reaching TeamLiquid.net and this topic in particular through the Great Firewall without VPN (which I can't get working on my laptop), so I don't think I'll be able to closely follow this topic. I'll try to look here on my phone throughout the day, but I may not be responding for a while.
In the western society all it takes is one citizen to report it and police has to start it. This user never confirmed if officials really started it though, at least I am not followin it that much because this thread sickens me
On March 19 2019 17:36 Charoisaur wrote: "Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
I'm sorry but Pinnacle not finding any wrong doing with MacSed's match while Pinnacle did find suspicion with the CSGO match in WESG and refunded the CSGO match says a lot about MacSed's match vs the CSGO match.
While originally, the OP had a case for further examination, but since then, there has been no further evidence to support the OP's case, and in fact, the evidence since the original post is not showing any wrong doing (statement from Pinnacle and no action by WESG), this is looking more and more like defamation against MacSed.
On March 19 2019 17:36 Charoisaur wrote: "Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
To iterrate on this prevous post.
If you have a dead body you have a strong undeniable evidence of a crime. Where do we have the body?
We have some suspicious betting - Pinnacle says it's fine(at the same time they voided CSGO bets). We have some suspicious play - Rotti says it may happen even to the best of us(Maru v MeomaikA?). We have a referee saying there was nothing suspicious and that people are caring about it.
What do you want more? UN Secure Council resolution? (and yes, China has the veto )
Edit> Also I would love if any Chinese reader of TL that they work the same way as we here. If you have a suspicion about a crime you go to the Police and iform them and they HAVE TO start the investigation. So all this takes is a citizen who cares. (of course this applies only if match fixing is actually a crime in China)
On March 19 2019 17:36 Charoisaur wrote: "Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
I'm sorry but Pinnacle not finding any wrong doing with MacSed's match while Pinnacle did find suspicion with the CSGO match in WESG and refunded the CSGO match says a lot about MacSed's match vs the CSGO match.
While originally, the OP had a case for further examination, but since then, there has been no further evidence to support the OP's case, and in fact, the evidence since the original post is not showing any wrong doing (statement from Pinnacle and no action by WESG), this is looking more and more like defamation against MacSed.
I don't want to defame him at all I don't have anything against him and I certainly don't want to just start drama. I watched Beastyqts analysis (who certainly doesn't want to just start drama either) and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement). Add to that that both things happened in the same match and MacSeds dubious statements and it's really not looking good for him. Saying innocent until proven guilty doesn't really apply imo when the evidence is this overwhelmingly against you. Sorry but Pinnacle and WESG not doing anything seems to me more like a case of them not caring about it than them thinking Macsed is innocent.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money.
Yes, but if only bets on the winning side are made, the algorithm will change the odds such that they become extremely low, making the reverse bet very attractive.
It's true that the market maker can lose money when the liquidity is low. But on betting sites that have sufficient customers, the market has enough liquidity to absorb shocks from sudden big bets.
Late to the party, but thanks, this makes sense that the changed odds should attract people to balance the situation!
On March 19 2019 19:49 mierin wrote: "My kid disappeared, I think he might be hurt!"
Detective deacon.frost: "No body, no investigation."
Investigations were done. One by Pinnacle. I assume WESG also already looked into it. And neither Pinnacle nor WESG provided evidence that furthered the OP's point.
One thing I would like to note is that the OP didn't even update his/her post to note that Pinnacle found no wrong doing. The OP clearly knew that Pinnacle came out with their findings but the OP so far has refused to update the original post to note this result from Pinnacle. I don't know about you, but I have to question why the OP refuses to update the original post to note the new findings from Pinnacle. It definitely lowers the integrity of the OP's post.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
On March 19 2019 17:36 Charoisaur wrote: "Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
I'm sorry but Pinnacle not finding any wrong doing with MacSed's match while Pinnacle did find suspicion with the CSGO match in WESG and refunded the CSGO match says a lot about MacSed's match vs the CSGO match.
While originally, the OP had a case for further examination, but since then, there has been no further evidence to support the OP's case, and in fact, the evidence since the original post is not showing any wrong doing (statement from Pinnacle and no action by WESG), this is looking more and more like defamation against MacSed.
I don't want to defame him at all I don't have anything against him and I certainly don't want to just start drama. I watched Beastyqts analysis (who certainly doesn't want to just start drama either) and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement). Add to that that both things happened in the same match and MacSeds dubious statements and it's really not looking good for him. Saying innocent until proven guilty doesn't really apply imo when the evidence is this overwhelmingly against you. Sorry but Pinnacle and WESG not doing anything seems to me more like a case of them not caring about it than them thinking Macsed is innocent.
Why do people ignore the posts from early pages? The self-proclaimed referee stated WESG started investigation, Pinnacle state it was fine. Either say directly the person isn't a referee from WESG otherwise accept that they did investigation, Pinnacle did investigation.
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
I edited my post few minutes ago, check the Waxangel quote, please, and read at least the red part.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
I edited my post few minutes ago, check the Waxangel quote, please, and read at least the red part.
Doesn't change anything - them saying there's nothing suspicious doesn't mean there isn't. In the OP are screenshots which prove (unless you think they're photo-shopped) that someone bet a huge sum of money on Seventy91 to win the map. This is suspicious (I can't say to which extent, but the OP and other knowledgable posters say this is really uncommon and I don't know why they'd be lying) As I said there are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bet despite them being suspicious.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
I edited my post few minutes ago, check the Waxangel quote, please, and read at least the red part.
Doesn't change anything - them saying there's nothing suspicious doesn't mean there isn't. In the OP are screenshots which prove (unless you think they're photo-shopped) that someone bet a huge sum of money on Seventy91 to win the map. This is suspicious (I can't say to which extent, but the OP and other knowledgable posters say this is really uncommon and I don't know why they'd be lying) As I said there are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bet despite them being suspicious.
But then what do you accept? The betting company said - as per our investigation it's fine. And you say - I don't trust them. And instead you trust random internet person.
You don;t know how huge the money sum was. You're expecting it to be huge. At the same time the algorithm may have overreacted because of volatility of the game and players who are unknown(Seventy91). Do you know the algorithm? I doubt that anyone here can share even if they know. It could have been quite low amount because we don't know aanything I just mentioned. Pinnacle DOES know. But in the end you selected to trust someone else, fine. But then tell me - what kind of evidence do you require? Because this is getting into the conspiracy theories shit. Yeah, the goverment says X, but I can't trust them as. Yeah, the scientists say X too, but I can't trust them either...
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
No, that information is not in the OP! After Pinnacle found there was no wrong doing, the OP did not update that in the first post for this thread!
This is why I am questioning the integrity of the OP. The OP seems to be very biased and refuses to update new information as it comes out, for example, the information from Pinnacle.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
I edited my post few minutes ago, check the Waxangel quote, please, and read at least the red part.
Doesn't change anything - them saying there's nothing suspicious doesn't mean there isn't. In the OP are screenshots which prove (unless you think they're photo-shopped) that someone bet a huge sum of money on Seventy91 to win the map. This is suspicious (I can't say to which extent, but the OP and other knowledgable posters say this is really uncommon and I don't know why they'd be lying) As I said there are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bet despite them being suspicious.
But then what do you accept? The betting company said - as per our investigation it's fine. And you say - I don't trust them. And instead you trust random internet person.
You don;t know how huge the money sum was. You're expecting it to be huge. At the same time the algorithm may have overreacted because of volatility of the game and players who are unknown(Seventy91). Do you know the algorithm? I doubt that anyone here can share even if they know. It could have been quite low amount because we don't know aanything I just mentioned. Pinnacle DOES know. But in the end you selected to trust someone else, fine. But then tell me - what kind of evidence do you require? Because this is getting into the conspiracy theories shit. Yeah, the goverment says X, but I can't trust them as. Yeah, the scientists say X too, but I can't trust them either...
Well, treating him as a matchfixer with the evidence we have is certainly wrong I give you that. All I meant to say is that it still looks extremely fishy to me regardless of what Pinnacle says. And I don't trust the OP over Pinnacle - I just think that we also shouldn't take Pinnacle's statement as the "well, nothing suspicious here, case closed" statement. If nothing more comes from this then well, there's nothing we can do about it, I just hope there will be a more thorough investigation.
On March 19 2019 20:16 Charoisaur wrote: The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
Because it severely weakens the OP's case, given that Pinnacle did find there was something suspicious with CSGO and refunded all bets for the CSGO match.
It says that Pinnacle didn't find evidence for MacSed's match that they decided there was no reason to refund the bets.
We can compare apples to apples in this case, since both matches happened at WESG:
1. Pinnacle refunds CSGO match for 5POWER vs ENZO and issues a statement that there was suspicious activity.
2. Pinnacle does not refund the bets for MacSed's match and says nothing was suspicious about that match.
This evidence in itself is damning to the OP's theory and crusade. It does not clear MacSed, but it sure cuts the legs under a lot of the OP's theory. In addition, WESG not finding anything suspicious also cuts the OP's theory.
If new evidence comes out that supports the OP, then the OP's theory may have more standing. Until that new evidence comes out, the evidence we have after the OP's post is not helping the OP's case.
On March 19 2019 09:44 hiro protagonist wrote: my question from earlier has yet to be awnserd yet:
Did anyone bet on 7091 to win a map against anyone other than macsed?
I wrote about that in the OP. The answer is no, none of the other lines had moved in that direction.
OK, so then, here is a question for everyone:
Can anyone give me a good reason why anyone would make such a large bet on such a longshot that doesn't involve matchfixing? Keep in mind, the bet was so large that the odds became 1:1, so you cant argue for "large risk, large reward" in this scenario.
My follow-up question to any that can answer for the above: Does this take into logical account the fact that no one bet for 7091 in any other match?
it's been mentioned. I don't know why, but for many people in this thread the betting just doesn't matter. Maybe it's because they don't get it, but it doesn't seem to register with them. It's bizarre to watch, honestly.
Yeah it's mentioned by several people including the OP (and me). It's weird to see how quickly people dismiss evidence they don't understand and even weirder that they don't try to understand. You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
And NOW you go look at the actual match (which I find of less importance even though it's really damaging).
What a lot of people seem to have trouble with is not recognizing that these 3 separate unlikelihoods are even more unlikely together, that's how probability works.
It's clearly enough for an investigation, a proper investigation and we can only hope that that is being conducted.
I also understand why someone doesn't like, gets sick from certain posts made in this thread but you can't just use those as a straw man and generalize everyone you don't agree with to that level. I don't wish any harm on anyone but I don't want to look away when something this obvious (to me) happens either.
On March 19 2019 21:26 Penev wrote: You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
Except that Pinnacle has data that we don't, and Pinnacle has looked into this case. And Pinnacle said there was nothing suspicious about this match and that they won't offer refunds.
And the same Pinnacle did find suspicious betting around the CSGO match and they offered the refund in the CSGO match.
On top of this, WESG has presumably looked into this match and they did not find anything suspicious either.
So until more evidence is presented that supports the OP's case, this is looking more and more like defamation, for each day that passes.
On March 19 2019 21:26 Penev wrote: You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
Except that Pinnacle has data that we don't, and Pinnacle has looked into this case. And Pinnacle said there was nothing suspicious about this match and that they won't offer refunds.
And the same Pinnacle did find suspicious betting around the CSGO match and they offered the refund in the CSGO match.
On top of this, WESG has presumably looked into this match and they did not find anything suspicious either.
So until more evidence is presented that supports the OP's case, this is looking more and more like defamation, for each day that passes.
To you maybe, not to me. Apart from certain, indeed despicable, posts.
On March 19 2019 21:26 Penev wrote: You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
Except that Pinnacle has data that we don't, and Pinnacle has looked into this case. And Pinnacle said there was nothing suspicious about this match and that they won't offer refunds.
And the same Pinnacle did find suspicious betting around the CSGO match and they offered the refund in the CSGO match.
On top of this, WESG has presumably looked into this match and they did not find anything suspicious either.
So until more evidence is presented that supports the OP's case, this is looking more and more like defamation, for each day that passes.
every one of your arguments is a total non-argument. "the officials have more information than us" ok, so officials always act properly and never make mistakes? there's no point in ever challenging official narratives? whatever the officials say is what you believe regardless of cirucmstances and common sense? boy, a lot of governments would love you!
the fact that you even dared to say "defamation" is pretty damning on your end, either you don't understand in a legal sense what defamation is or more likely this is all just devil's advocacy from someone who simply doesn't care about the issue
On March 19 2019 21:26 Penev wrote: You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
Except that Pinnacle has data that we don't, and Pinnacle has looked into this case. And Pinnacle said there was nothing suspicious about this match and that they won't offer refunds.
And the same Pinnacle did find suspicious betting around the CSGO match and they offered the refund in the CSGO match.
On top of this, WESG has presumably looked into this match and they did not find anything suspicious either.
So until more evidence is presented that supports the OP's case, this is looking more and more like defamation, for each day that passes.
every one of your arguments is a total non-argument. "the officials have more information than us" ok, so officials always act properly and never make mistakes? there's no point in ever challenging official narratives? whatever the officials say is what you believe regardless of cirucmstances and common sense? boy, a lot of governments would love you!
Yes, because of bunch of "betting experts" know more than Pinnacle, LOL. This is a really sad state of this thread.
Pinnacle is the de facto "betting expert" in this case. And if there was suspicious betting, Pinnacle would have voided and refunded the bets, which they did in the case of CSGO.
This is why the OP's theory is so questionable right now. Pinnacle obviously thought MacSed's match either didn't have any evidence, or didn't have enough evidence, to warrant a refund of the bets. But Pinnacle did think there was enough suspicious activity that they refunded the CSGO bets.
On March 19 2019 21:26 Penev wrote: You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
Except that Pinnacle has data that we don't, and Pinnacle has looked into this case. And Pinnacle said there was nothing suspicious about this match and that they won't offer refunds.
And the same Pinnacle did find suspicious betting around the CSGO match and they offered the refund in the CSGO match.
On top of this, WESG has presumably looked into this match and they did not find anything suspicious either.
So until more evidence is presented that supports the OP's case, this is looking more and more like defamation, for each day that passes.
every one of your arguments is a total non-argument. "the officials have more information than us" ok, so officials always act properly and never make mistakes? there's no point in ever challenging official narratives? whatever the officials say is what you believe regardless of cirucmstances and common sense? boy, a lot of governments would love you!
Yes, because of bunch of "betting experts" know more than Pinnacle, LOL. This is a really sad state of this thread.
Pinnacle is the de facto "betting expert" in this case. And if there was suspicious betting, Pinnacle would have voided and refunded the bets, which they did in the case of CSGO.
This is why the OP's theory is so questionable right now. Pinnacle obviously thought MacSed's match either didn't have any evidence, or didn't have enough evidence, to warrant a refund of the bets. But Pinnacle did think there was enough suspicious activity that they refunded the CSGO bets.
I really recommend you to just learn about betting lines etc yourself instead of just blindly trusting a site like pinnacle. It's entirely possible for algorithms to fuck up or employees acting differently on alarms that went of. I did so myself a few years ago (learn about this shit) when all the proleague matchfixing happened and read a lot of articles about the subject since. (Illegal) betting is huge and matchfixing in all kinds of sports is sadly very common and it has been getting worse. You'll find that what we have witnessed here is a pretty clear cut case. To conduct a serious investigation, not to condemn someone ofc.
I think he did it but I hope he didn't. But even if he did, I don't know the circumstances. And even if I did and it wouldn't help his case, I still won't think he's the worst person in the world. I reserve my stronger emotions for serious violent crimes.
But I will point out what I make of all of this and cases like it. This is a public forum designed for people to talk and have discussions after all, including about this particular case. As long as TL wants it to be anyway.
On March 19 2019 16:42 xelnaga_empire wrote: Okay, this is getting out of hand and the TL administrators need to put out a statement that there is inconclusive evidence of match fixing and unless there is new evidence to further prove the OP's case, this topic needs to end and MacSed deserves the right to be presumed innocent. The TL administrators also need to say that Pinnacle did not find any wrong doing in the betting for this match.
First of all, most of us live in a society where you are presumed innocent until proven guilty. And in a court of law, you must prove beyond a reasonable doubt in order for a conviction to pass. While there are a lot of question marks in this case, there is also a lot of doubt about the OP's premise:
1. Pinnacle did not find any wrong doing or suspicion in the betting for this match. However, at WESG, Pinnacle did find suspicion for a CSGO match for 5POWER vs ENZO and did refund the betting for that match: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq9qkyDpz7M&feature=youtu.be&t=2917. If the evidence for match fixing was conclusive, Pinnacle would have offered a refund, but they did not. Pinnacle merely stated that they did not find anything out of the ordinary for this match. This tells us the evidence for the CSGO match was beyond what it was for MacSed's match.
2. The replays have been released and WESG has had a chance to look into this. Don't forget that there were foreign referees and foreign staff working at WESG too. So far, WESG has not found any evidence of wrong doing by MacSed.
3. Rotti does a nice breakdown of the match: https://www.youtube.com?v=avWdD87jdkg&t=2363. If you follow Rotti's logic, and Rotti lays out the case very well, it is not conclusive that MacSed lost the game purposefully. In fact, if you listen to Rotti's logic, he explains how a 6K MMR player like MacSed can lose to a 4K MMR player (and Rotti is 6K himself as Protoss).
4. Finally, so many people question how a 6K player can make such basic noob mistakes. And yet we have Maru playing over $10,000 USD, making a noob mistake in his match against Scarlett. And Maru acknowledged after that he didn't think that he could draw against Scarlett, even though it was so obvious to everyone that watched his match. Yes, even a pro player who has been playing the game for 9 years, who is in contention for one of the best players of all time in SC2, who won 3 GSLs in a row, will make a noob mistake.
This is not a "beyond a reasonable doubt" case (if it were, you wouldn't have somebody like Rotti saying what he did) and at this point, since the OP's posting, there is actual doubt about the OP's case. TL admins, kindly note that if there is doubt about this case, by allowing this thread to persist and by not making an announcement about the other facts of the case, this is nothing more than defamation of MacSed. I hope that TL and the administrators act responsibly at some point because it's unfair to defame somebody in this way, especially when the evidence is inconclusive and there is doubt about the OP's case.
With all due respect to Rotti, but I think his breakdown appears not as neutral as he claims it to be and in some cases even lacks some logic. For example, he criticizes people for saying "a 6k player should not lose that ..." because they are not 6k players themselves and thus cannot judge about MacSed's play. Well, that is not entirely true: If you are a, say, 5k player (which is not too unreasonable) and you yourself will not lose to this shit, then it is reasonable to assume that a 6k player does also not lose in this situation. Second, his explanation for stealing both of sevent91's gases? "MacSed also sees that Seventy91 has one gate and a pylon, no gases, so MacSed steals both gases which is normally a sick play cause it means you cannot lose against voidrays, oracles, four gate because you cannot research warpgate ... .. Well, in order to lose against voidrays, oracles or four gate (with warpgate researched), there should be a cybercore and at least already one gas taken. Otherwise, none of those builds would work at all which even a 4k player like Seventy91 knows. Then, Rotti says "Normally, the only play Seventy91 could make is build a Nexus somewhere on the map and then recall his probes; that is a thing that does happen, but then his attack is so far delayed that MacSed can tech up at home ...". Now, this basically assumes that this was Seventy91's plan in the first place, which does not make any sense at all. So, Rotti goes on: "... unless you are talking about a weird and unique scenario ..." Well, seeing a one gate, one pylon toss with no gases is more or less the definition of a weird and unique scenario? "... where there are there are three gateways for no reason at all on the other side of the map." Ok, now tell me, which "reasonable" builds are left after you scout one gate, pylon, no gases and no natural/attempt to build natural? It is either a) a hidden Nexus somewhere on the map or b) some proxy-gate shenanigans. You decide for yourself which is more reasonable. Rotti then continues by asking how MacSed should know that there are 3 gateways on the map because "... this is not an opening.". Yeah, but it is still the most likely scenario. He then goes on to expain that MacSed might have relaxed after seeing one gate, no gases because he "roflstomped" Seventy91 in the first game. Still even a 4k player will not fuck up his build - whatever it is - that badly. So, I will not continue to comment the rest of the video and I am not saying that MacSed has definitely been match-fixing (although I still think that it is absolutely the most likely scenario). What I want to say is that those explanations given by Rotterdam are very weak excuses which are much more unlikely than the game being lossed on purpose.
Obviously Pinnacle isn't going to void any bet whose outcome was unexpected/different from the most probable outcome. There would be no point in the whole notion of betting otherwise. If match-fixers organize their shit well, I doubt you would distinguish them from regular crazy bets risky users might place (with limited volume), or even bets placed at the last minute that used some sort of inside information (like someone saw MacSed drunk at the venue just before this particular round and decided he could very well drop a game to an inferior player that day).
All of this to say: I doubt Pinnacle could catch every type of match-fixing just looking at betting patterns. I think in this present situation the combination of the betting patterns AND the actual game is what's interesting. I agree that the opinion of "betting experts" here is not worth shit against what Pinnacle ends up concluding.
Edit: Also I listened to RotterdaM's take on the situation, and I respect his opinion a lot. I also think you cannot ban a guy just based what we have. But my mind is still 90% made up :D.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
This is incorrect. A reputable betting site would never, and I stress, never, void bets because it lost money. That would be extremely bad for the site. There would be tons of angry gamblers how would claim they got robbed out of money, because the site can't take losses. So I'm stressing, that is completely false. Only time they would ever void bets is because they want to protect customers.
When Pinnacle voided the bets during 2015 match fixing scandal (you can read about it here: 2015 Match-Fixing Scandal), the games hadn't begun yet or winnings paid out. The threshold for voiding bets is much lower, because nobody loses money, the bets are just cancelled.
Here the automatic triggers didn't happen in Pinnacle (I have good guesses why not, but would rather not disclose them, since it gives more info how to successfully bypass them). So the winnings had already been paid out, by the time anyone even messaged them. Nobody at Pinnacle is going to look at the match, they operate on their own systems. It is highly unlikely that they would do manual review at this point.
Also multiple posters that know the betting scene has commented that according to Pinnacles answer it does not say that they have actually "investigated" anything at all. All they did was message their investigation department that said they had nothing to say about this specific bet.
As several people have said before me, that does not mean that anyone has investigated anything at all. It only means the bet did not trip the sites autmoatic warning systems, other posters have already written about the many factors that these systems that analyze the betting lines have tons of factors that effect them. Automated systems are obviously not fail safe and there can be many reasons automatic warnings did not happen here. As far as we know no one has investigated this, not Pinnacle, not WESG and not the police.
The attempts to dismiss this situation as solved since it has been investigated are based on straight up false information.
As for the parellel drawn to Marus game are just sad, it shows an extreme lack of even the most basic of understanding of match fixing.
Macsed was 1-0 in the game where he might have matchfixed, if he were to win it would be 2-0 and then all the bettors would have lost and Macsed would (if guilty) be in deep shit with people you don't want to be in deep shit with. If Macsed matchfixed it is likely he tried to lose the first game smoothly but since his opponent was diamond he couldn't help but win it. Therefore the second game with his back to the wall he had to lose and therefore he made it this blatant.
How does this logic work for Maru, what bet was on the line here? Maru obviously tried to win the game through his playing the game, there is no way he tried to lose the first game on purpose and even if Rotti wants to argue the opposite. Maru obviously tried to win and did win, not to mention there is actually a lot of money on the line here. In macseds match there was no money on the line, there are here. There is no suspicious betting line and there are nothing else suspicious besides that one action that he GGed. In Macseds situation there just happens to be 30 suspicions things at the same time, the opponent in diamond, the betting line moved weirdly and his comment just makes things worse. Also according to the WESG rules book (as was pointed out to me on youtube sc2hl video of the game) in case of a tie the judge will count units. Maru would lose either way, there was no way to tie to the game. Marus suspicion level 0, Macseds suspicion level 99.7.
Nothing is investigated and nothing is proven but the circumstantial evidence are very convincing.
Edit: As a closing comment, as others also have pointed out. Pinnacle is a private company, they like to make money. There is acutally a possibility that the betting line in question made Pinnacle money, based on how many as the OP saw the line and Macsed vs diamond player and betting against the fixers. There is the possiblity that one betting line would leave Pinnacle losing money (therefore voided) while this betting line actually earned them money (therefore not voided). I actually doesn't think this is the case I just feel the argument that Pinnacles "empty" statement is proof that Macsed is innocent utter bull that is easily dismissed.
On March 20 2019 00:33 ZenithM wrote: I agree that the opinion of "betting experts" here is not worth shit against what Pinnacle ends up concluding.
Yes, this is my point. Not only does Pinnacle know more about suspicious betting patterns on their website better than everybody in this thread, they also have all the information about those bets that we don't.
Pinnacle most likely looked at the accounts that made the bets, the financial information attached to those accounts, the location and IP address from the bettors when they made the bet, the history of the bettors' accounts, the exact time of the bets, etc. This is all information that we don't have access to. And at the end of the day, they decided there was no foul play in the bets made.
Nothing is investigated and nothing is proven but the circumstantial evidence are very convincing.
That's not what I read. I don't know how you came to this conclusion. This was the quote from Pinnacle's reply to WaxAngel's:
I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Sounds like this case went through the investigation department. Pinnacle's investigation department did not find anything suspicious. It is pretty clear to me.
I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Sounds like this case went through the investigation department. Pinnacle's investigation department did not find anything suspicious. It is pretty clear to me.
You see what you want to see, try emailing Pinnacle about the Serral vs Innovation match and ask them if they found anything suspicious in the betting line. You know what they would do? They would ask their investigation department which would tell them that they didn't find anything suspicious (since it didn't trip their automated system). Then they would write you this: "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match"
You assume much without any real base for it, you are allowed to whatever opinion you have but just because you want proof doesn't mean you can turn a blank statement into a meaningful one.
Edit: Also consider that Pinnacle is likely used to getting emails from unhappy bettors that lost money that complain about matchfix. This looks to me a blankett statement meant to calm upset betters that lose money, referencing that the investigation department has looked into it but not really saying that they have.
On March 20 2019 01:49 Shuffleblade wrote: You assume much without any real base for it, you are allowed to whatever opinion you have but just because you want proof doesn't mean you can turn a blank statement into a meaningful one.
That's 90% of this thread. People are making so many assumptions and now that Pinnacle has conducted an investigation, and WESG has looked into this too (as per the comments from the WESG referee that posted in this thread), people are disregarding the new facts because they already painted MacSed was guilty before the rest of the facts had come out.
Are you part of the 90% of this thread? Because the new facts don't support the OP's case. And unless there is new evidence presented to support the OP's case, it is inconclusive that MacSed did any match fixing and he should be afforded the assumption of innocence unless further proof is presented.
BTW, I continue to question the OP's integrity. Maybe the OP has some ulterior motive? Now that Pinnacle presented their conclusion, why didn't the OP update this in the first message of this thread? The OP clearly knows of Pinnacle's findings, but refuses to update the message with Pinnacle's findings.
I found OP quite well made actually. He obviously holds the opinion that there was match fixing, sure, but he presented us with facts only as they were given to him. I don't see any foul play here. Obviously he might be a little sour that he lost $300 on this but he wouldn't make such a sillly bet on such a low profile game if he weren't ready to lose it in the first place.
On March 20 2019 00:33 ZenithM wrote: I agree that the opinion of "betting experts" here is not worth shit against what Pinnacle ends up concluding.
Yes, this is my point. Not only does Pinnacle know more about suspicious betting patterns on their website better than everybody in this thread, they also have all the information about those bets that we don't.
Pinnacle most likely looked at the accounts that made the bets, the financial information attached to those accounts, the location and IP address from the bettors when they made the bet, the history of the bettors' accounts, the exact time of the bets, etc. This is all information that we don't have access to. And at the end of the day, they decided there was no foul play in the bets made.
On the other hand, people might argue that the betting volume was small and that Pinnacle might not have seen it to be worth their time to investigate properly. They do not share any details about their investigation process, so your guess is as good as mine. Take this quote from Wax who originally posted about this:
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
I have not really seen anything that has greatly changed any of the original points I made, so I have decided not to make any edits to the OP.
On March 20 2019 01:49 Shuffleblade wrote: You assume much without any real base for it, you are allowed to whatever opinion you have but just because you want proof doesn't mean you can turn a blank statement into a meaningful one.
That's 90% of this thread. People are making so many assumptions and now that Pinnacle has conducted an investigation, and WESG has looked into this too (as per the comments from the WESG referee that posted in this thread), people are disregarding the new facts because they already painted MacSed was guilty before the rest of the facts had come out.
Are you part of the 90% of this thread? Because the new facts don't support the OP's case. And unless there is new evidence presented to support the OP's case, it is inconclusive that MacSed did any match fixing and he should be afforded the assumption of innocence unless further proof is presented.
BTW, I continue to question the OP's integrity. Maybe the OP has some ulterior motive? Now that Pinnacle presented their conclusion, why didn't the OP update this in the first message of this thread? The OP clearly knows of Pinnacle's findings, but refuses to update the message with Pinnacle's findings.
I am indeed assuming a lot, but I at least try to do this based on the facts and I clearly explain my thought pattern.
You keep referencing things that do not exist, the "new" facts you talk about actually do not exist. There are no new facts besides the ones you have fabricated.
As I clearly explained above Pinnacle hasn't "presented their conclusion", they have merely answered the outside question of if they bets will be voided with the answer that they will not. If they have investigated or not they haven't said anythng about. I keep explaining this but you seem to not comprehend it?
The OP have no new facts to add, everything is there, I don't understand why so many posters keep shifting the topic of conversation. Rail has been accused, Seventy has been accused, even Wardi and now you are shifting it towards OP? How about discussing the facts, the actual facts which are looking very grim for Macsed, he is most likely guilty and the question is if anyone actually is doing an investigation or if it will just pass by like nothing happened.
Regarding WESG referee, you spread so much misinformation, please keep to the facts, remeber you wrote this?
On March 19 2019 20:05 xelnaga_empire wrote: Investigations were done. One by Pinnacle. I assume WESG also already looked into it. And neither Pinnacle nor WESG provided evidence that furthered the OP's point.
You assume investigations were made (they were not as far as we know), you assume he was found innocent? You come here and rage at us for believing him to be guilty and you argue that you "assume" an organization has investigated it and found him innocent? How about I say I assume the police has investigated and arrested him, we just don't know about it so he is guilty!
As the WESG referee last wrote in this thread:
On March 14 2019 12:28 VanCaspel wrote: WESG admin here, still on-site as one of the two non-Chinese referees. I made a post in this topic before, but would like to add something in response to the latest posts. Seventy91 did do a strategy that was suggested to him by Rail in that second game. Immediately after game 2 he told me so, and Rail, separately, told me the same (that he had advised Seventy91 to do that build, and that he could win with it).
By the way: I'm not involved with any official investigation, but from what I can tell it's being handled well.
So he doesn't know and he is not involved but he thinks it is "being handled well", notice he is not stating that there actually is an investigation under way just that it is being "handled". If there was a investigation it would have been released unless it is still ongoing, therefore there is two options. An investigation were never really done OR the investigation is not yet concluded. Notice how none of these options are that the investigation has been done and the conclusion was that he was innocent.
On March 20 2019 01:49 Shuffleblade wrote: You assume much without any real base for it, you are allowed to whatever opinion you have but just because you want proof doesn't mean you can turn a blank statement into a meaningful one.
That's 90% of this thread. People are making so many assumptions and now that Pinnacle has conducted an investigation, and WESG has looked into this too (as per the comments from the WESG referee that posted in this thread), people are disregarding the new facts because they already painted MacSed was guilty before the rest of the facts had come out.
Are you part of the 90% of this thread? Because the new facts don't support the OP's case. And unless there is new evidence presented to support the OP's case, it is inconclusive that MacSed did any match fixing and he should be afforded the assumption of innocence unless further proof is presented.
BTW, I continue to question the OP's integrity. Maybe the OP has some ulterior motive? Now that Pinnacle presented their conclusion, why didn't the OP update this in the first message of this thread? The OP clearly knows of Pinnacle's findings, but refuses to update the message with Pinnacle's findings.
The OP is well made, much better than most non staff entries. It's also rather hypocritical to question the OP's integrity while calling out people who are questioning something much more likely to be foul play. Why are you doing that? Trying to put out a dumpster fire for someone you know? I don't actually believe this last part but see what I did there?
I'm actually curious as to what you yourself think about the evidence given by the OP, it doesn't seem you have actually really considered it. The only thing I got from you is that you easily conform to (perceived) authority.
From my perspective, Pinnacle's message to wax was mostly a blanket statement. As for WESG, there hasn't been any mention of an investigation . The post by VanCaspel seems to imply that the situation is being handled well, not that there's an investigation going on. In other words, this can be interpreted as WESG is proceeding and obviously that was the case if MacSed helped with the casting. It doesn't in any way imply that he has been cleared assuming that they would end up doing an investigation.
On March 20 2019 00:33 ZenithM wrote: I agree that the opinion of "betting experts" here is not worth shit against what Pinnacle ends up concluding.
Yes, this is my point. Not only does Pinnacle know more about suspicious betting patterns on their website better than everybody in this thread, they also have all the information about those bets that we don't.
You're basing everything on the thought that Pinnacle's statement means he did nothing wrong. Your logic is actually based on a huge assumption. We have much stronger evidence suggesting he did matchfix. There are many potential reasons why Pinnacle might not actually care to go after the truth of this situation. I believe it's most likely that they never launched an actual serious investigation and just desire to make the matchfixing drama go away.
1) CSGO is a massively more active e-sport than SC2 right now. No doubt they receive way more action on that game and would be vastly more likely to take things seriously there.
2) This was just an "irrelevant" group stage match that the viewers didn't even care about because it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Macsed would win.
3) I'm betting they just offer SC2 lines for icing on the cake profit rather than relying on serious profits from SC2 betting in any major way. I've seen very strange things in SC2 that I've never seen in any other betting section like leaving the original pre-game line up when the player is already up 1-0 or 2-0 in the series (seen this happen twice in the past and the bets weren't voided). This perhaps suggests they don't care about SC2 much and get lazy keeping up with it.
4) Very possible that they still made a profit on this (or at least didn't lose much) because they very drastically increased the value on Macsed's line after receiving heavy action on Seventy. And I bet a lot of people were willing to put money on Macsed at such a reduced juice line seeing as how he's leagues above Seventy's skill level.
5) The Pinnacle bets could've been someone/some people who weren't involved in it catching wind of the matchfix and placing money on Seventy. They would be found innocent regardless since they had no involvement in arranging the fix. Possible Macsed's side who were actually involved in the fix placed their money elsewhere.
etc. etc. I could go on and on but don't have the time...
Moral of the story Pinnacle doesn't have to seriously investigate this if they have no desire to. They can just give you a statement saying they looked into it and found nothing without actually doing much.
Also completely baffles me how a couple people (including xel'naga_empire) apparently think Rotti is more credible than people like BeastyQT and Snute who are already nearly 100% convinced this was not a legitimate game. Turkeydano is another strong player who completely disagreed with Rotti and he knows all about cannon rushing specifically.
Many of Rotti's arguments are weak and I'll get into that in proper depth later when I have some time to play with.
On March 20 2019 04:32 NinjaNight wrote: Also completely baffles me how a couple people (including xel'naga_empire) apparently think Rotti is more credible than people like BeastyQT and Snute who are already nearly 100% convinced this was not a legitimate game. Turkeydano is another strong player who completely disagreed with Rotti and he knows all about cannon rushing specifically.
Many of Rotti's arguments are weak and I'll get into that in proper depth later when I have some time to play with.
Do you know what happens when 11 jurors vote "guilty" and 1 votes "not guilty"? The defendant isn't convicted.
Furthermore, note what terms are used. It's "guilty" or "not guilty," there is no mention of "innocent." Because innocence is not the question here; the defendant doesn't need to be innocent, they just need to be not guilty. If the best argument you can make is "Well, him being innocent looks unlikely," or "he's more likely to be guilty than innocent," you better be prepared for a disappointing verdict.
Trials are not an equal balance between guilt and innocence. It's much, much harder to prove guilt than disprove it, and that is by very deliberate design. A design, I might add, that is specifically intended to counter what a lot of people in this thread are trying to do.
On March 20 2019 04:32 NinjaNight wrote: Also completely baffles me how a couple people (including xel'naga_empire) apparently think Rotti is more credible than people like BeastyQT and Snute who are already nearly 100% convinced this was not a legitimate game. Turkeydano is another strong player who completely disagreed with Rotti and he knows all about cannon rushing specifically.
Many of Rotti's arguments are weak and I'll get into that in proper depth later when I have some time to play with.
Do you know what happens when 11 jurors vote "guilty" and 1 votes "not guilty"? The defendant isn't convicted.
Furthermore, note what terms are used. It's "guilty" or "not guilty," there is no mention of "innocent." Because innocence is not the question here; the defendant doesn't need to be innocent, they just need to be not guilty. If the best argument you can make is "Well, him being innocent looks unlikely," or "he's more likely to be guilty than innocent," you better be prepared for a disappointing verdict.
Trials are not an equal balance between guilt and innocence. It's much, much harder to prove guilt than disprove it, and that is by very deliberate design. A design, I might add, that is specifically intended to counter what a lot of people in this thread are trying to do.
i think that biggest problem with macsed in that game that found him guilty is the fact, that he tried to wall with a cannon, not once but twice !!! hes playing sc2 for 8years and yet he doesnt know how to properly wall..
Yeah guys, sorry to interrupt your circlejerk, but I just watched Maru vs. Scarlett g1. If you want to condemn people for willingly throwing games, where is the petition to ban Maru from competitive esports? Or is he too beloved, unlike a random Chinese guy and that's it?
On March 20 2019 06:31 opisska wrote: Yeah guys, sorry to interrupt your circlejerk, but I just watched Maru vs. Scarlett g1. If you want to condemn people for willingly throwing games, where is the petition to ban Maru from competitive esports? Or is he too beloved, unlike a random Chinese guy and that's it?
On March 20 2019 06:31 opisska wrote: Yeah guys, sorry to interrupt your circlejerk, but I just watched Maru vs. Scarlett g1. If you want to condemn people for willingly throwing games, where is the petition to ban Maru from competitive esports? Or is he too beloved, unlike a random Chinese guy and that's it?
that is not in any way comparable...
Indeed it isn't. While Macsed had to make decisions on timescale of seconds to minutes, no matter how questionable, Maru had a literal half an hour, including a break of his own creation, dedicated to the discussion of the very topic, to just pres "l" and fly some of his more than a dozen building into one of the largest dead airspaces on current competitive maps.
I am not saying that Maru fixed the game, but I am saying that Macsed did not even commit the most blatant act of "playing to lose" in the tournament in question, so any further "gameplay analysis" presented as evidence, is quite silly.
Difference is Maru played an 80 min game where both appeared to be doing their damnest to win (though we can't be too sure about the first 18 mins lol). Mental exhaustion is a valid reason when that one game took longer than a series. If Maru was doing his best to lose against a near peer opponent he hid it well to last the entire time to the 80th minute.
I don't know about matchfixing, as I am not a better, but I don't see how it is possible for anybody to watch Macsed vs Seventy91, and think Macsed wasn't try to lose. It's as obvious as if he had no micro probe rushing. macsed statement if correctly translated sure makes him seem like he chose to lose.
On March 20 2019 06:31 opisska wrote: Yeah guys, sorry to interrupt your circlejerk, but I just watched Maru vs. Scarlett g1. If you want to condemn people for willingly throwing games, where is the petition to ban Maru from competitive esports? Or is he too beloved, unlike a random Chinese guy and that's it?
that is not in any way comparable...
Indeed it isn't. While Macsed had to make decisions on timescale of seconds to minutes, no matter how questionable, Maru had a literal half an hour, including a break of his own creation, dedicated to the discussion of the very topic, to just pres "l" and fly some of his more than a dozen building into one of the largest dead airspaces on current competitive maps.
I am not saying that Maru fixed the game, but I am saying that Macsed did not even commit the most blatant act of "playing to lose" in the tournament in question, so any further "gameplay analysis" presented as evidence, is quite silly.
Well then agree to disagree. I think forgetting about the possibilty of forcing a draw via lifting buildings after an exhausting 1 hour game is a hundred times more understandable than what Macsed did. Scarlett didn't think of that either and thought she will win if she can kill the planetaries.
On March 20 2019 06:31 opisska wrote: Yeah guys, sorry to interrupt your circlejerk, but I just watched Maru vs. Scarlett g1. If you want to condemn people for willingly throwing games, where is the petition to ban Maru from competitive esports? Or is he too beloved, unlike a random Chinese guy and that's it?
that is not in any way comparable...
Indeed it isn't. While Macsed had to make decisions on timescale of seconds to minutes, no matter how questionable, Maru had a literal half an hour, including a break of his own creation, dedicated to the discussion of the very topic, to just pres "l" and fly some of his more than a dozen building into one of the largest dead airspaces on current competitive maps.
I am not saying that Maru fixed the game, but I am saying that Macsed did not even commit the most blatant act of "playing to lose" in the tournament in question, so any further "gameplay analysis" presented as evidence, is quite silly.
Seems I need to quote myself to answer this one.
On March 20 2019 01:36 Shuffleblade wrote:
As for the parellel drawn to Marus game are just sad, it shows an extreme lack of even the most basic of understanding of match fixing.
Macsed was 1-0 in the game where he might have matchfixed, if he were to win it would be 2-0 and then all the bettors would have lost and Macsed would (if guilty) be in deep shit with people you don't want to be in deep shit with. If Macsed matchfixed it is likely he tried to lose the first game smoothly but since his opponent was diamond he couldn't help but win it. Therefore the second game with his back to the wall he had to lose and therefore he made it this blatant.
How does this logic work for Maru, what bet was on the line here? Maru obviously tried to win the game through his playing the game, there is no way he tried to lose the first game on purpose and even if Rotti wants to argue the opposite. Maru obviously tried to win and did win the series, not to mention there is actually a lot of money on the line here. In macseds match there was no money on the line, there are here. There is no suspicious betting line and there are nothing else suspicious besides that one action that he GGed. In Macseds situation there just happens to be 30 suspicions things at the same time, the opponent in diamond, the betting line moved weirdly and his comment just makes things worse. Also according to the WESG rules book (as was pointed out to me on youtube sc2hl video of the game) in case of a tie the judge will count units. Maru would lose either way, there was no way to tie to the game since Scarlett had way more units even without Maru throwing about those vikings. Marus suspicion level 0, Macseds suspicion level 99.7.
So why are we here again, with posters trying to divert the discussion onto people that has nothing to do with the topic at hand? Macseds game is so suspicious I fail to find the words, if you then add on the circumstances of his comment, the betting line and Seventy being a diamond player it absolutely insane if this was not a matchfix.
There is not a single argument for why Marus match is the least bit suspicious, either way he would lose. People that state otherwise haven't read the WESG handbook. So the only suspicious thing in Marus situation is based on your ignorance of the situation.
Blah blah blah, your all still talking about something you can’t prove(weather Macsed threw a game), when there is hard evidence that matching fixing happened (ah la, the betting lines)
I’m not gonna acuse Macsed or 7091 of intending to throw a game, because I don’t have that proof. You can fix a match without involving the players anyways.
We do know SOMEONE fixed it due to the betting lines, and unless someone can give me a logical reason as to why the betting lines changed like they did that doesn’t involve match fixing, we should treat this as a match fixing incident, and get to the bottom of it, end of story.
On March 20 2019 00:33 ZenithM wrote: I agree that the opinion of "betting experts" here is not worth shit against what Pinnacle ends up concluding.
Yes, this is my point. Not only does Pinnacle know more about suspicious betting patterns on their website better than everybody in this thread, they also have all the information about those bets that we don't.
Pinnacle most likely looked at the accounts that made the bets, the financial information attached to those accounts, the location and IP address from the bettors when they made the bet, the history of the bettors' accounts, the exact time of the bets, etc. This is all information that we don't have access to. And at the end of the day, they decided there was no foul play in the bets made.
On the other hand, people might argue that the betting volume was small and that Pinnacle might not have seen it to be worth their time to investigate properly. They do not share any details about their investigation process, so your guess is as good as mine. Take this quote from Wax who originally posted about this:
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
I have not really seen anything that has greatly changed any of the original points I made, so I have decided not to make any edits to the OP.
And this is why I question your impartiality. Do you have an agenda here? Did you lose money on the betting and that is why you are bitter?
So new information and facts were presented about Pinnancle and you deliberately refuse to edit your original posting to include this information,
I'm sorry, this makes you additionally suspicious and your motives are questionable. If you were fully impartial, you would update your original post with the new information about Pinnacle because it gives everyone a more complete and fair picture of the facts after your original post.
Now you are acknowledging that you don't really care about sharing all the new facts as they come out and you insist on painting your side of the picture only. It appears you only care about defaming and slandering MacSed without giving him a fair process, especially with the new facts since your original posting.
On March 20 2019 06:31 opisska wrote: Yeah guys, sorry to interrupt your circlejerk, but I just watched Maru vs. Scarlett g1. If you want to condemn people for willingly throwing games, where is the petition to ban Maru from competitive esports? Or is he too beloved, unlike a random Chinese guy and that's it?
Unfortunately, people in this thread have their pitchforks already and their minds made up about MacSed.
On March 20 2019 06:31 opisska wrote: Yeah guys, sorry to interrupt your circlejerk, but I just watched Maru vs. Scarlett g1. If you want to condemn people for willingly throwing games, where is the petition to ban Maru from competitive esports? Or is he too beloved, unlike a random Chinese guy and that's it?
that is not in any way comparable...
Except that it is comparable. Players make the most basic noob mistakes at the highest levels, even Maru. You have a 3 time GSL champion, one of the best players ever to play SC2, who has played it as a pro for 9 years, making a basic noob mistake. If Maru can do that, so can MacSed.
And if you took the time to view Rotti's video analysis of MacSed's game, Rotti clearl points out the mistakes that MacSed made, assuming there was no match fixing.
On March 20 2019 02:47 ZenithM wrote: I found OP quite well made actually. He obviously holds the opinion that there was match fixing, sure, but he presented us with facts only as they were given to him. I don't see any foul play here. Obviously he might be a little sour that he lost $300 on this but he wouldn't make such a sillly bet on such a low profile game if he weren't ready to lose it in the first place.
Do you realize with many online newspapers, if new facts are presented that contradict the original article, the author of the article will typically update the article with these new facts at the end of the article? They do this to show they are impartial to readers and to give readers a more complete picture of the story.
The OP here, PowerFoe, just admitted to knowing about the new facts presented by Pinnacle but refuses to update the original post with these new facts. The OP is not impartial and biased.
You see, I would have more faith in the OP, if he/she continued to update the original post with the new facts as they come in, even if these facts don't help his/her case. Just like they do with online newspapers. But the OP, PowerFoe, refuses to do this so I cannot trust the motive and impartiality of PowerFoe.
I mean, in the end he's just one guy presenting his opinion on a public forum. He doesn't have to moderate the discussion in any way past his OP, nor is he some kind of official prosecutor supposed to present all the elements of the case or some shit. He answered directly every time you asked him questions. You're grasping at straws there. Plus TL admins can add whatever they feel like as a sticker to the thread like they did with MacSed's statement.
Btw, it's a pattern common to everybody siding with MacSed (or at least the very skeptical), they're all trying to involve somebody else instead of focusing on what would redeem MacSed himself to the public eye here. One time it's "oh Rail gave the newbie an unbeatable secret build, MacSed had no chance", now it's "OP is posting in bad faith". There is nothing in what Powerfoe said that would suggest he has some sort of personal vendetta against MacSed.
On March 20 2019 10:15 ZenithM wrote: I mean, in the end he's just one guy presenting his opinion on a public forum. He doesn't have to moderate the discussion in any way past his OP, nor is he some kind of official prosecutor supposed to present all the elements of the case or some shit.
Yeah, it's called not being impartial, LOL. You could have said it in fewer words.
On March 20 2019 10:45 Alejandrisha wrote: that rottie says this has anything to racism is fucking insulting
Did he so much as say that? I found his entire long winded defense of excuses so ridiculous I couldn't be bothered to watch completely. It is sad too, because he was honestly pretty much the only SC2 streamer I watch these days, and now I question his logic among other things. It's gone from me watching his stream as much as I can (him being one of my favorite Twitch options) to not sure how I can watch anymore, since I can't trust his judgements.
I haven't made a TL post since 2012, and this situation and the absolutely ludicrous defense a few spammers continue to make here has got me to post again.
On March 20 2019 10:45 Alejandrisha wrote: that rottie says this has anything to racism is fucking insulting
He brought up racism in the context of people mentioning Silky/Coffee/etc, and saying that it wasn't surprising Macsed would matchfix due to also being Chinese.
Which sounds pretty racist to me. Prime got busted in the 2015 matchfixing scandal but nobody is accusing Maru.
On March 20 2019 10:45 Alejandrisha wrote: that rottie says this has anything to racism is fucking insulting
Did he so much as say that? I found his entire long winded defense of excuses so ridiculous I couldn't be bothered to watch completely. It is sad too, because he was honestly pretty much the only SC2 streamer I watch these days, and now I question his logic among other things. It's gone from me watching his stream as much as I can (him being one of my favorite Twitch options) to not sure how I can watch anymore, since I can't trust his judgements.
I haven't made a TL post since 2012, and this situation and the absolutely ludicrous defense a few spammers continue to make here has got me to post again.
(also speaking as a chinese-american)
Someone mentioned that he was close to MacSed so I think it's natural that he'll try to defend him, however bad the defense was.
On March 20 2019 06:31 opisska wrote: Yeah guys, sorry to interrupt your circlejerk, but I just watched Maru vs. Scarlett g1. If you want to condemn people for willingly throwing games, where is the petition to ban Maru from competitive esports? Or is he too beloved, unlike a random Chinese guy and that's it?
Indeed looking at the game(s) isn't the most useful when regarding whether match fixing took place. The OP isn't about analyzing the game either. It's about betting line movement and some specifics surrounding it. The Maru - Scarlett match didn't have any of this.
Amazing you actually managed to disrupt the circlejerk, props. :p
People still refusing to accept that Pinnacle didn't find anything wrong/suspicious about the betting lines...
"Those errors can happen in professional starcraft" "Ye but you don't have to look at the game, look at the betting lines!" "Pinnacle says there's nothing wrong with them" "LA LA LA CAN'T HEAR YOU"
Can't believe this thread is even still open, you guys are throwing baseless accusations because someone lost a bet and clearly has an axe to grind
On March 20 2019 21:59 HsDLTitich wrote: People still refusing to accept that Pinnacle didn't find anything wrong/suspicious about the betting lines...
"Those errors can happen in professional starcraft" "Ye but you don't have to look at the game, look at the betting lines!" "Pinnacle says there's nothing wrong with them" "LA LA LA CAN'T HEAR YOU"
Can't believe this thread is even still open, you guys are throwing baseless accusations because someone lost a bet and clearly has an axe to grind
People have seen Pinnacle's statement and commented on it. Here's one:
On March 20 2019 03:19 BigFan wrote: From my perspective, Pinnacle's message to wax was mostly a blanket statement. As for WESG, there hasn't been any mention of an investigation . The post by VanCaspel seems to imply that the situation is being handled well, not that there's an investigation going on. In other words, this can be interpreted as WESG is proceeding and obviously that was the case if MacSed helped with the casting. It doesn't in any way imply that he has been cleared assuming that they would end up doing an investigation.
I said it before, if the official ruling is that he dindt do it, or there is no reason to investigate, then that's that.
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing, tourney organizers/ law enforcement dont have an issue with it or didnt deem necessary to launch an investigation (?). It's a shame than there isnt any official word, some facts that are not available to the public that played a role in the decision to clear him / not investigate it further, but alas...
Not a very satisfying conclusion, but it is what it is. I would have preferred an official announcement by WESG or someone, but as far as i'm concerned the matter is finished, or at least swept under the rug (until further notice anyways)
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: I said it before, if the official ruling is that he dindt do it, or there is no reason to investigate, then that's that.
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing, tourney organizers/ law enforcement dont have an issue with it or didnt deem necessary to launch an investigation (?). It's a shame than there isnt any official word, some facts that are not available to the public that played a role in the decision to clear him / not investigate it further, but alas...
Not a very satisfying conclusion, but it is what it is. I would have preferred an official announcement by WESG or someone, but as far as i'm concerned the matter is finished, or at least swept under the rug (until further notice anyways)
That's the disappointing thing, to me at least. The evidence as shown in the OP did warrant an investigation but it looks like there never was one.
On March 20 2019 21:59 HsDLTitich wrote: People still refusing to accept that Pinnacle didn't find anything wrong/suspicious about the betting lines...
"Those errors can happen in professional starcraft" "Ye but you don't have to look at the game, look at the betting lines!" "Pinnacle says there's nothing wrong with them" "LA LA LA CAN'T HEAR YOU"
Can't believe this thread is even still open, you guys are throwing baseless accusations because someone lost a bet and clearly has an axe to grind
People have seen Pinnacle's statement and commented on it. Here's one:
On March 20 2019 03:19 BigFan wrote: From my perspective, Pinnacle's message to wax was mostly a blanket statement. As for WESG, there hasn't been any mention of an investigation . The post by VanCaspel seems to imply that the situation is being handled well, not that there's an investigation going on. In other words, this can be interpreted as WESG is proceeding and obviously that was the case if MacSed helped with the casting. It doesn't in any way imply that he has been cleared assuming that they would end up doing an investigation.
It appears it's you who is LALALA-ing.
Yep. People aren't giving the evidence provided so far a good look and are taking blanket statements or lack of at face value. This is pretty sad for the Starcraft II scene imo because this kind of stuff will ruin it in the long run. But whatever, I didn't expect much from WESG personally.
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match, but they did find fault with the CSGO match. Pinnacle found evidence that the CSGO match deserved a refund while they didn't find the same thing with the MacSed match. It's that simple, really.
What I find the most pathetic in this thread is that people refuse to accept the result from Pinnacle. The OP included.
Now if there is further evidence that MacSed fixed his match, such as an announcement from WESG, or a reversal from Pinnacle, etc, then it's fair to pull out the pitchforks for MacSed's head. But until then, accept the facts that followed after the OP's posting, as much as those facts don't further prove the OP's theory.
Are so many people emotionally invested in believing that MacSed fixed this match that they won't accept the new facts that came out? If further, concrete evidence comes out that shows MacSed fixed this match, I would gladly support banning MacSed from all future SC2 tournaments. But it appears there are people that are so emotionally invested into seeing MacSed as guilty, that they refuse to accept the facts that came out after the OP's original post. The most laughable people are the ones that even got mad at Rotti because Rotti dared to share his opinion on the match (like really, you are now angry at Rotti just because he shared his opinion, what is wrong with you?)
On March 20 2019 21:59 HsDLTitich wrote: People still refusing to accept that Pinnacle didn't find anything wrong/suspicious about the betting lines...
"Those errors can happen in professional starcraft" "Ye but you don't have to look at the game, look at the betting lines!" "Pinnacle says there's nothing wrong with them" "LA LA LA CAN'T HEAR YOU"
Can't believe this thread is even still open, you guys are throwing baseless accusations because someone lost a bet and clearly has an axe to grind
Pretty much this. And some people are so emotionally invested into seeing that MacSed is guilty, they are even angry at Rotti now. ROFL.
damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
On March 21 2019 01:23 M3t4PhYzX wrote: damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
Yes, this shitty tournament and the handling of this case is really hurting the integrity of the scene. Rotti defense video compared to Beastiqt really saddened me. That's the kind of stuff which makes me want to leave the game nowadays. And feardragon defense : 'maybe he lost a member of his family"... It's a fucking shame honestly.
On March 21 2019 01:23 M3t4PhYzX wrote: damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
Yes, this shitty tournament and the handling of this case is really hurting the integrity of the scene. Rotti defense video compared to Beastiqt really saddened me. That's the kind of stuff which makes me want to leave the game nowadays. And feardragon defense : 'maybe he lost a member of his family"... It's a fucking shame honestly.
Feardragon's general point was that we don't know the circumstances. Coincidences can and do happen. One guy can take a risky bet based on odds that he sees as worth it, while another player can suffer an embarrassing defeat for a number of reasons on the same match.
Innocent until proven guilty is not a naive position, it is a rational and necessary one. Otherwise, we as a community will end up doling out undeserved punishments at some point. I think we all agree that this looks bad. However, there simply isn't enough evidence to be able to say with rational certainty that MacSed was involved in match-fixing.
What further investigation are we calling for, anyway? Who should lead it? Who is going to pay for it?
On March 21 2019 01:23 M3t4PhYzX wrote: damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
Yes, this shitty tournament and the handling of this case is really hurting the integrity of the scene. Rotti defense video compared to Beastiqt really saddened me. That's the kind of stuff which makes me want to leave the game nowadays. And feardragon defense : 'maybe he lost a member of his family"... It's a fucking shame honestly.
Feardragon's general point was that we don't know the circumstances. Coincidences can and do happen. One guy can take a risky bet based on odds that he sees as worth it, while another player can suffer an embarrassing defeat for a number of reasons on the same match.
Innocent until proven guilty is not a naive position, it is a rational and necessary one. Otherwise, we as a community will end up doling out undeserved punishments at some point. I think we all agree that this looks bad. However, there simply isn't enough evidence to be able to say with rational certainty that MacSed was involved in match-fixing.
What further investigation are we calling for, anyway? Who should lead it? Who is going to pay for it?
Police, this kind of stuff is quite often linked to a mafia and it's illegal anyway. sc2 community is a microcosm, an investigation within it by its own members is a ridiculous idea, in a perfect world, it would be the job of a prosecutor or sth, well, the case is obviously not big enough but that's just sad. These "risky bets" as you called them are always rights in particulary weird matchs. As for innocent until proven guilty, sure, that's how justice works but justice won't settle this matter anyway just like our opinions cannot matter in the slightest anyway as macsed seems to be a top dog of the community seeing how anyone jumps in order to protect him despite the later matchfixing scandals (even MKP didn't have so much support while at least, the bet line could be justified as it was a game between 2 progamers and Byul was a clear favorite) it's hard to not sense a feeling of impunity toward this pratice.
On March 21 2019 01:23 M3t4PhYzX wrote: damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
Yes, this shitty tournament and the handling of this case is really hurting the integrity of the scene. Rotti defense video compared to Beastiqt really saddened me. That's the kind of stuff which makes me want to leave the game nowadays. And feardragon defense : 'maybe he lost a member of his family"... It's a fucking shame honestly.
Feardragon's general point was that we don't know the circumstances. Coincidences can and do happen. One guy can take a risky bet based on odds that he sees as worth it, while another player can suffer an embarrassing defeat for a number of reasons on the same match.
Innocent until proven guilty is not a naive position, it is a rational and necessary one. Otherwise, we as a community will end up doling out undeserved punishments at some point. I think we all agree that this looks bad. However, there simply isn't enough evidence to be able to say with rational certainty that MacSed was involved in match-fixing.
What further investigation are we calling for, anyway? Who should lead it? Who is going to pay for it?
Without Pinnacle or other sites like it voiding a bet like this sports organizations and authorities aren't likely to conduct any investigations. But you still hope they will. I wonder what kespaaaa would've done.
Yeah, there probably never was or will be any proper investigation but people can still discuss the circumstances around this occurrence.
As for innocent until proven guilty, sure, that's how justice works but justice won't settle this matter anyway just like our opinions cannot matter in the slightest anyway as macsed seems to be a top dog of the community seeing how anyone jumps in order to protect him despite the later matchfixing scandals (even MKP didn't have so much support while at least, the bet line could be justified as it was a game between 2 progamers and Byul was a clear favorite) it's hard to not sense a feeling of impunity toward this pratice.
I agree with how you feel, but we just can't end someone's career based on circumstantial evidence. Like I said, eventually that would go wrong for us if the broader Starcraft community made a habit of acting on this kind of emotional urge. I do agree that it sucks to feel like MacSed might have got away with something, but if we can bring ourselves to accept that we weren't in the room and we can't be 100% sure of it the matter (even if we want to be), then I think we can move on and enjoy MacSed's future games without continuing to be upset about this.
I'd love to see this looked into and monitored more and perhaps we can use this case as an argument of why it would be good for Starcraft if we could ultimately eliminate these questions of impropriety with a proper investigatory body. But realistically, Starcraft doesn't have the funding or infrastructure in place to do that. The best recourse, therefore, isn't to go around smearing the player as a means of enacting 'vigilante justice'. That only hurts everybody.
I think it would be better to channel our energies into more productive efforts. We should be strongly discouraging betting on Starcraft in the first place, as it only creates more of these temptations for these kids who already struggle to make ends meet. We should be petitioning Blizzard to help set up structures to prevent this from happening. After all, with their actions towards KeSPA they made it 100% clear that they consider this responsibility to be part of their intellectual property rights, so we should hold them to it.
Ultimately, we should be supporting players, sharing Starcraft with our friends and talking about how awesome it is and how much we love the game. With a continued increase in popularity, more safeguards will be able to come along to prevent this type of thing from happening in the future.
As for innocent until proven guilty, sure, that's how justice works but justice won't settle this matter anyway just like our opinions cannot matter in the slightest anyway as macsed seems to be a top dog of the community seeing how anyone jumps in order to protect him despite the later matchfixing scandals (even MKP didn't have so much support while at least, the bet line could be justified as it was a game between 2 progamers and Byul was a clear favorite) it's hard to not sense a feeling of impunity toward this pratice.
I agree with how you feel, but we just can't end someone's career based on circumstantial evidence. Like I said, eventually that would go wrong for us if the broader Starcraft community made a habit of acting on this kind of emotional urge. I do agree that it sucks to feel like MacSed might have got away with something, but if we can bring ourselves to accept that we weren't in the room and we can't be 100% sure of it the matter (even if we want to be), then I think we can move on and enjoy MacSed's future games without continuing to be upset about this.
I'd love to see this looked into and monitored more and perhaps we can use this case as an argument of why it would be good for Starcraft if we could ultimately eliminate these questions of impropriety with a proper investigatory body. But realistically, Starcraft doesn't have the funding or infrastructure in place to do that. The best recourse, therefore, isn't to go around smearing the player as a means of enacting 'vigilante justice'. That only hurts everybody.
I think it would be better to channel our energies into more productive efforts. We should be strongly discouraging betting on Starcraft in the first place, as it only creates more of these temptations for these kids who already struggle to make ends meet. We should be petitioning Blizzard to help set up structures to prevent this from happening. After all, with their actions towards KeSPA they made it 100% clear that they consider this responsibility to be part of their intellectual property rights, so we should hold them to it.
Ultimately, we should be supporting players, sharing Starcraft with our friends and talking about how awesome it is and how much we love the game. With a continued increase in popularity, more safeguards will be able to come along to prevent this type of thing from happening in the future.
What a zen post, so on point and very well written. I'm really struggling with my own feelings of frustration and helplessness but you're right in all regards.
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match, but they did find fault with the CSGO match. Pinnacle found evidence that the CSGO match deserved a refund while they didn't find the same thing with the MacSed match. It's that simple, really.
This is too funny. You're arguing against yourself here and you don't even know it. Pinnacle being a blackbox is a strong reason why we can't assume Macsed is innocent based on their statement. We have no idea what they did. We don't even know if they actually seriously investigated the case or maybe they didn't really do anything and are just telling us that they currently don't have proof of matchfixing. Your arguments that I have read here are all based on extremely flawed logic.
I have no problem at all with attempting to defend Macsed but you better use solid logic when you do so. You're just adding a bunch of filth to this thread. Poor reasoning is a huge pet peeve of mine because it's rampant all around the world. That is what I'm fighting against, not the fact that you're defending Macsed.
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match, but they did find fault with the CSGO match. Pinnacle found evidence that the CSGO match deserved a refund while they didn't find the same thing with the MacSed match. It's that simple, really.
This is too funny. You're arguing against yourself here and you don't even know it. Pinnacle being a blackbox is a strong reason why we can't assume Macsed is innocent based on their statement. We have no idea what they did. We don't even know if they actually seriously investigated the case or maybe they didn't really do anything and are just telling us that they currently don't have proof of matchfixing. Your arguments that I have read here are all based on extremely flawed logic.
I have no problem at all with attempting to defend Macsed but you better use solid logic when you do so. You're just adding a bunch of filth to this thread. Poor reasoning is a huge pet peeve of mine because it's rampant all around the world. That is what I'm fighting against, not the fact that you're defending Macsed.
What are you going to do about it? Barge down the door at Pinnacle with a machine gun, hold everybody hostage at Pinnacle, and then force the Pinnacle employees to tell you exactly how they came to the conclusion that there was no suspicious betting for MacSed's game?
The point is, Pinnacle's statement is final, unless they decide to make a second statement. No amount of noise you make will change their mind to make a second statement with more details of the incident. As such, we know that Pinnacle found enough evidence that the CSGO match had suspicious betting but MacSed's match did not.
Accept this and move on. But if you are like many of the people in this thread with an emotional attachment to seeing that MacSed must be guilty, then I feel very sorry for you.
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
On March 21 2019 01:23 M3t4PhYzX wrote: damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
Yes, this shitty tournament and the handling of this case is really hurting the integrity of the scene. Rotti defense video compared to Beastiqt really saddened me. That's the kind of stuff which makes me want to leave the game nowadays. And feardragon defense : 'maybe he lost a member of his family"... It's a fucking shame honestly.
My point was not “I think this happened”. It was, before we publicly condemn a player and end a 10+ year career and livlihood of a player, let’s wait until we hear their side of the story. I said multiple times it was weird and suspicious but that I believe in waiting to hear all sides because public opinion is not something easily reversed. I gave an off example of something unlikely but possible. Why are so many people taking this out of context?
everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
Pinnacle is based in the Netherlands. They have Laws there that protect gamblers. Match fixing breaks those Laws. Law enforcement there should investigate.
On the SC2 side of things, Blizzard is the only relevant organization for an investigation. It’s in there best interest to root out anything that takes away from the integrity of the game. They should look into how the tournament was run, see if there’s any discrepancies, ask questions. You know, just some basic investigation stuff. They recently had to do this with Hearthstone with win trading aligations (and only after some strong public pressure I might add). They came to the conclusion that it happened, and responded accordingly.
On March 21 2019 13:53 Popkiller wrote: everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
Sangho disagrees with you. And lots of progamer where their game was deemed suspicious by community.
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
Pinnacle is based in the Netherlands. They have Laws there that protect gamblers. Match fixing breaks those Laws. Law enforcement there should investigate.
On the SC2 side of things, Blizzard is the only relevant organization for an investigation. It’s in there best interest to root out anything that takes away from the integrity of the game. They should look into how the tournament was run, see if there’s any discrepancies, ask questions. You know, just some basic investigation stuff. They recently had to do this with Hearthstone with win trading aligations (and only after some strong public pressure I might add). They came to the conclusion that it happened, and responded accordingly.
Oh good. Get Pinnacle to send us more details of how they determined MacSed's match didn't have suspicious betting that warranted a refund. I'm sure they will issue a second statement. You go do that! /s
Yes, get Blizzard to investigate this too! You go do that! /s
On March 21 2019 13:34 feardragon wrote: My point was not “I think this happened”. It was, before we publicly condemn a player and end a 10+ year career and livlihood of a player, let’s wait until we hear their side of the story. I said multiple times it was weird and suspicious but that I believe in waiting to hear all sides because public opinion is not something easily reversed. I gave an off example of something unlikely but possible. Why are so many people taking this out of context?
Thank you feardragon. Good to see reasonable responses like this. Some of the behavior in this thread is absurd.
Like I said before, some people are so emotionally invested in seeing that MacSed is guilty, they are now throwing their pitchforks at Rotti because Rotti dared to share his opinion. That is absurd behavior and shows a lack of maturity.
On March 21 2019 13:53 Popkiller wrote: everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
Sangho disagrees with you. And lots of progamer where their game was deemed suspicious by community.
Unless there are updates from authority, I don't think this thread should stay open. This has turned into witch hunt.
I’ll agree with you that people in this thread have accused Macsed of throwing the game based on there opinion of the replay and find him guilty. I personally think that this is not conducive for a fair hearing.
Would you agree with me that the evidence presented deserves an investigation? And that at this point, the only way a investigation will happen is if the community presses for one?
On March 21 2019 13:53 Popkiller wrote: everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
Sangho disagrees with you. And lots of progamer where their game was deemed suspicious by community.
Unless there are updates from authority, I don't think this thread should stay open. This has turned into witch hunt.
I'm not hunting. Not saying Macsed should be banned from anything. If I were a tournament organizer, I wouldn't bar him from the tournament, not based on this information alone.
On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote: If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
Pinnacle is based in the Netherlands. They have Laws there that protect gamblers. Match fixing breaks those Laws. Law enforcement there should investigate.
On the SC2 side of things, Blizzard is the only relevant organization for an investigation. It’s in there best interest to root out anything that takes away from the integrity of the game. They should look into how the tournament was run, see if there’s any discrepancies, ask questions. You know, just some basic investigation stuff. They recently had to do this with Hearthstone with win trading aligations (and only after some strong public pressure I might add). They came to the conclusion that it happened, and responded accordingly.
Oh good. Get Pinnacle to send us more details of how they determined MacSed's match didn't have suspicious betting that warranted a refund. I'm sure they will issue a second statement. You go do that! /s
Yes, get Blizzard to investigate this too! You go do that! /s
Yes, that’s what I’m doing now. I’m asking for an investigation. Don’t you want Blizzard/Pinnacle/relevant authorities to look into this? Shouldn’t we expect that when the smoke alarm goes off, we check to see if there is a fire?
On March 21 2019 13:53 Popkiller wrote: everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
Sangho disagrees with you. And lots of progamer where their game was deemed suspicious by community.
Unless there are updates from authority, I don't think this thread should stay open. This has turned into witch hunt.
I'm not hunting. Not saying Macsed should be banned from anything. If I were a tournament organizer, I wouldn't bar him from the tournament, not based on this information alone.
Yeah, you're doing nothing wrong, just keeping the fire for to burn the witch,but you're not the one throwing the witch into the fire nor the one really hunting. How could you, you're just typing words on internwebz, it's fine, no harm can be done, right?
On March 20 2019 23:28 xelnaga_empire wrote: [quote]
Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +
So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match.
It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example:
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
[quote]
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
Pinnacle is based in the Netherlands. They have Laws there that protect gamblers. Match fixing breaks those Laws. Law enforcement there should investigate.
On the SC2 side of things, Blizzard is the only relevant organization for an investigation. It’s in there best interest to root out anything that takes away from the integrity of the game. They should look into how the tournament was run, see if there’s any discrepancies, ask questions. You know, just some basic investigation stuff. They recently had to do this with Hearthstone with win trading aligations (and only after some strong public pressure I might add). They came to the conclusion that it happened, and responded accordingly.
Oh good. Get Pinnacle to send us more details of how they determined MacSed's match didn't have suspicious betting that warranted a refund. I'm sure they will issue a second statement. You go do that! /s
Yes, get Blizzard to investigate this too! You go do that! /s
Yes, that’s what I’m doing now. I’m asking for an investigation. Don’t you want Blizzard/Pinnacle/relevant authorities to look into this? Shouldn’t we expect that when the smoke alarm goes off, we check to see if there is a fire?
Then ask the damn officials. Do you realize you're here on some random internet forum? And as far as we know the fucking Pinnacle DID investigation. FFS at least remove the PInnacle from your post, it;s becoming pathetic.
Ask the authorities. If you cannot ask yourself for whatever reasons ask someone in that country to file it so the police has to start the investigation. This is just forum on the interwebz, you can post here for eternity and guess what, no investigation will be done. SURPRISE!
On March 21 2019 15:41 hiro protagonist wrote: Would you agree with me that the evidence presented deserves an investigation? And that at this point, the only way a investigation will happen is if the community presses for one?
And Pinnacle already responded. Who do you want to do the investigation now? Didn't you mention you wanted Blizzard to investigate this?
Do you realize that WESG is not a WCS event? Maybe you should understand this:
1. WESG is not a WCS event. There are no points given towards Blizzcon.
2. Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting that warranted a refund on the bets.
What are the chances that Blizzard will investigate this? Do you see that you are running into a brick wall at this point?
On March 21 2019 16:44 deacon.frost wrote: Ask the authorities. If you cannot ask yourself for whatever reasons ask someone in that country to file it so the police has to start the investigation. This is just forum on the interwebz, you can post here for eternity and guess what, no investigation will be done. SURPRISE!
Exactly! Well said!
Some people are so delusional. Pinnacle already said there was no suspicious betting and no refunds would be offered. That lowers the chance of an investigation drastically.
The people that are still out with a pitchfork for MacSed's head are comical at this point. It's absurd behavior and it's rather embarrassing.
On March 21 2019 15:41 hiro protagonist wrote: Would you agree with me that the evidence presented deserves an investigation? And that at this point, the only way a investigation will happen is if the community presses for one?
And Pinnacle already responded. Who do you want to do the investigation now? Didn't you mention you wanted Blizzard to investigate this?
Do you realize that WESG is not a WCS event? Maybe you should understand this:
1. WESG is not a WCS event. There are no points given towards Blizzcon.
2. Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting that warranted a refund on the bets.
What are the chances that Blizzard will investigate this? Do you see that you are running into a brick wall at this point?
MacSed is in the WCS system so he has to obide the rules 24/7 which forbid match fixing, or at least they should So Blizard have the incentive to do the investigation, but what will be the course of action? 1) Hey, Pinnacle, anything suspicious? FOR THE THOUSAND TIME AGAIN, NO, NO, LEAVE US ALONE!@#!#$!$! 2) Hey, WESG, anything suspicious? Nope. 3) Hey, intern, find me a Chinese translator and check MacSed's PMs!
So unless MacSed admitted this via chat in the SC2 itself Blizzard won't have more information than we currently have.
On March 21 2019 15:41 hiro protagonist wrote: Would you agree with me that the evidence presented deserves an investigation? And that at this point, the only way a investigation will happen is if the community presses for one?
And Pinnacle already responded. Who do you want to do the investigation now? Didn't you mention you wanted Blizzard to investigate this?
Do you realize that WESG is not a WCS event? Maybe you should understand this:
1. WESG is not a WCS event. There are no points given towards Blizzcon.
2. Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting that warranted a refund on the bets.
What are the chances that Blizzard will investigate this? Do you see that you are running into a brick wall at this point?
MacSed is in the WCS system so he has to obide the rules 24/7 which forbid match fixing, or at least they should So Blizard have the incentive to do the investigation, but what will be the course of action? 1) Hey, Pinnacle, anything suspicious? FOR THE THOUSAND TIME AGAIN, NO, NO, LEAVE US ALONE!@#!#$!$! 2) Hey, WESG, anything suspicious? Nope. 3) Hey, intern, find me a Chinese translator and check MacSed's PMs!
So unless MacSed admitted this via chat in the SC2 itself Blizzard won't have more information than we currently have.
Yup, pretty much this. When Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting that warranted a refund of the bets, and unless WESG comes out with a statement that there was match fixing by MacSed, that is more or less, the end of the line.
I don't understand why people don't understand this. Actually, never mind, I do. These people are so emotionally invested in seeing MacSed guilty, that they won't give up.
On March 21 2019 13:34 feardragon wrote: My point was not “I think this happened”. It was, before we publicly condemn a player and end a 10+ year career and livlihood of a player, let’s wait until we hear their side of the story. I said multiple times it was weird and suspicious but that I believe in waiting to hear all sides because public opinion is not something easily reversed. I gave an off example of something unlikely but possible. Why are so many people taking this out of context?
Thank you feardragon. Good to see reasonable responses like this. Some of the behavior in this thread is absurd.
Like I said before, some people are so emotionally invested in seeing that MacSed is guilty, they are now throwing their pitchforks at Rotti because Rotti dared to share his opinion. That is absurd behavior and shows a lack of maturity.
Very much resembles the immature behavior of one particular poster throwing his pitchfork in the face of OP because he dared to share his opinion and bring this important topic into the light.
On March 21 2019 13:53 Popkiller wrote: everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
Sangho disagrees with you. And lots of progamer where their game was deemed suspicious by community.
Unless there are updates from authority, I don't think this thread should stay open. This has turned into witch hunt.
I'm not hunting. Not saying Macsed should be banned from anything. If I were a tournament organizer, I wouldn't bar him from the tournament, not based on this information alone.
Yeah, you're doing nothing wrong, just keeping the fire for to burn the witch,but you're not the one throwing the witch into the fire nor the one really hunting. How could you, you're just typing words on internwebz, it's fine, no harm can be done, right?
On March 21 2019 00:06 Penev wrote: [quote] It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example: [quote] In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
Pinnacle is based in the Netherlands. They have Laws there that protect gamblers. Match fixing breaks those Laws. Law enforcement there should investigate.
On the SC2 side of things, Blizzard is the only relevant organization for an investigation. It’s in there best interest to root out anything that takes away from the integrity of the game. They should look into how the tournament was run, see if there’s any discrepancies, ask questions. You know, just some basic investigation stuff. They recently had to do this with Hearthstone with win trading aligations (and only after some strong public pressure I might add). They came to the conclusion that it happened, and responded accordingly.
Oh good. Get Pinnacle to send us more details of how they determined MacSed's match didn't have suspicious betting that warranted a refund. I'm sure they will issue a second statement. You go do that! /s
Yes, get Blizzard to investigate this too! You go do that! /s
Yes, that’s what I’m doing now. I’m asking for an investigation. Don’t you want Blizzard/Pinnacle/relevant authorities to look into this? Shouldn’t we expect that when the smoke alarm goes off, we check to see if there is a fire?
Then ask the damn officials. Do you realize you're here on some random internet forum? And as far as we know the fucking Pinnacle DID investigation. FFS at least remove the PInnacle from your post, it;s becoming pathetic.
Ask the authorities. If you cannot ask yourself for whatever reasons ask someone in that country to file it so the police has to start the investigation. This is just forum on the interwebz, you can post here for eternity and guess what, no investigation will be done. SURPRISE!
Of course what we say can have effects on peoples lifes, Shanas link was a great read that many that have posted here should read if you haven't. However Popkiller is not wrong in stating that based on the information we do have Macsed is likely guilty, you can disagree but that doesn't change anything. You think I'm a fool for posting my opinion and I think you're a fool if you actually believe that he is probably not guilty.
In regards to your attack on hiro, how is it is his responsibility to contact the authorities. Maybe I should post the same message back to you huh? Since you seem to think it so important that someone contacts the police for an investigation, you do it yourself!
The most critical thing you do miss there is that all of us here could contact the authorities and ask them to look into this but you know what nothing would happen. I live in sweden so I don't "really" know about the police entity in other countries but I doubt they are leagues and bounds better than what we have here and let me tell you that there are a lot of important things that should be investigated that is not. This tiny issue would never be prioritized by the police just because all of us calls them. You know what could make them look into it? If bigger corporations/organizations starts making their voices heard.
We have no power here and nothing we do would lead to a "proper" investigation unless Blizzard/pinnacle/WESG pressure the authorities and why would they do that you ask? Because we pressure them as a community.
The sad part is I think you already realized this but you don't really care if an investigation is made you just wants us that are of a different opinion to shut up, to silence us. That is more pathetic than anything hiro posted.
Regardless of the actual truth, it's somewhat interesting that match fixing cannot get more obvious than this, barring a police investigation or confession by the player. If MacSed isn't caught in this almost perfect storm of circumstances as a match fixer, then good luck catching anyone ever again in similar cases. I hope he's innocent :D.
To me, if nothing else comes out of it, we should at least draw the lesson that there shouldn't be any betting allowed on such a game. Like, don't allow people to bet on 2-1 outcomes of a semi-pro vs no-namer in a low-profile round of a tournament, it's just kicking Pandora's box wide open. Also, if you are a better, you'd be foolish to place bets like those following this event :D.
Very much resembles the immature behavior of one particular poster throwing his pitchfork in the face of OP because he dared to share his opinion and bring this important topic into the light.
The same OP who refuses to update the first post in this thread with new information about Pinnacle's statement?
You sure bet I am throwing the pitchfork at PowerFoe.
If the OP or PowerFoe was impartial to this, he/she would update the first post and add the new information from Pinnacle.
But PowerFoe refuses to do this, which is unfair to MacSed. Do you realize in the newspaper and media industry, reputable news organizations and journalists will update their article with new information that is pertinent to the original premise of the article, even if that information contradticts the premise of that article?
If you read a few pages back, PowerFoe is aware of the new information from Pinnacle and deliberately won't update the original post. PowerFoe has elected to take the "low road," as opposed to the "high road" taken by reputable journalists and news organizations around the world.
You see, I have nothing against PowerFoe posting this thread. The original allegations did deserve more of an investigation, especially from Pinnacle's side. But Pinnacle came out with their statement. And when Pinnacle came out with this information, PowerFoe should be impartial and update the post with new information that is relevant to this discussion.
I am glad that most reputable newspapers and journalists behave with a higher standard of integrity than PowerFoe.
- Pinnacle is not the only sportsbook that offered a spread for MacSed vs Seventy91. Some posters have indicated that there may be underground Chinese betting sites that may have traded this bet in higher volume than Pinnacle, and that Pinnacle only received comparatively fewer bets from information leaks. I believe this to be possible to likely.
Do you know what I call this? I call this moving the goal posts. Because Pinnacle didn't come out with information that further substantiated PowerFoe's claims, PowerFoe then decides to move the goal posts. That is sad, really sad.
Very much resembles the immature behavior of one particular poster throwing his pitchfork in the face of OP because he dared to share his opinion and bring this important topic into the light.
The same OP who refuses to update the first post in this thread with new information about Pinnacle's statement?
You sure bet I am throwing the pitchfork at PowerFoe.
If the OP or PowerFoe was impartial to this, he/she would update the first post and add the new information from Pinnacle.
But PowerFoe refuses to do this, which is unfair to MacSed. Do you realize in the newspaper and media industry, reputable news organizations and journalists will update their article with new information that is pertinent to the original premise of the article, even if that information contradticts the premise of that article?
If you read a few pages back, PowerFoe is aware of the new information from Pinnacle and deliberately won't update the original post. PowerFoe has elected to take the "low road," as opposed to the "high road" taken by reputable journalists and news organizations around the world.
You see, I have nothing against PowerFoe posting this thread. The original allegations did deserve more of an investigation, especially from Pinnacle's side. But Pinnacle came out with their statement. And when Pinnacle came out with this information, PowerFoe should be impartial and update the post with new information that is relevant to this discussion.
I am glad that most reputable newspapers and journalists behave with a higher standard of integrity than PowerFoe.
- Pinnacle is not the only sportsbook that offered a spread for MacSed vs Seventy91. Some posters have indicated that there may be underground Chinese betting sites that may have traded this bet in higher volume than Pinnacle, and that Pinnacle only received comparatively fewer bets from information leaks. I believe this to be possible to likely.
Do you know what I call this? I call this moving the goal posts. Because Pinnacle didn't come out with information that further substantiated PowerFoe's claims, PowerFoe then decides to move the goal posts. That is sad, really sad.
You are wrong, and I as well as others have explained it to you multiple times, even staff have gone out of their way to try and make you understand.
Powerfoe is not a journalist, he doesn't get paid for posting this, yes people that work with and get paid for posting news can and are held to a different standard than a random TL poster. That is normal
Teamliquid staff have updated the OP with everything relevant (which has also been pointed out to you before), that is where the discussion ends.If you still do not understand re read this thread and you will hopefully get your answer.
On March 21 2019 17:41 Shuffleblade wrote: Powerfoe is not a journalist, he doesn't get paid for posting this, yes people that work with and get paid for posting news can and are held to a different standard than a random TL poster. That is normal
Great! We agree that PowerFoe has a lower standard of integrity than he/she could possibly have. At least we agree on this point!
On March 21 2019 17:41 Shuffleblade wrote: Teamliquid staff have updated the OP with everything relevant (which has also been pointed out to you before), that is where the discussion ends.If you still do not understand re read this thread and you will hopefully get your answer.
Nope. I still don't see any update about Pinnacle's statement in the original post by TL or PowerFoe. Still waiting. <crickets...>
On March 21 2019 13:34 feardragon wrote: My point was not “I think this happened”. It was, before we publicly condemn a player and end a 10+ year career and livlihood of a player, let’s wait until we hear their side of the story. I said multiple times it was weird and suspicious but that I believe in waiting to hear all sides because public opinion is not something easily reversed. I gave an off example of something unlikely but possible. Why are so many people taking this out of context?
Thank you feardragon. Good to see reasonable responses like this. Some of the behavior in this thread is absurd.
Like I said before, some people are so emotionally invested in seeing that MacSed is guilty, they are now throwing their pitchforks at Rotti because Rotti dared to share his opinion. That is absurd behavior and shows a lack of maturity.
Very much resembles the immature behavior of one particular poster throwing his pitchfork in the face of OP because he dared to share his opinion and bring this important topic into the light.
On March 21 2019 13:53 Popkiller wrote: everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
Sangho disagrees with you. And lots of progamer where their game was deemed suspicious by community.
Unless there are updates from authority, I don't think this thread should stay open. This has turned into witch hunt.
I'm not hunting. Not saying Macsed should be banned from anything. If I were a tournament organizer, I wouldn't bar him from the tournament, not based on this information alone.
Yeah, you're doing nothing wrong, just keeping the fire for to burn the witch,but you're not the one throwing the witch into the fire nor the one really hunting. How could you, you're just typing words on internwebz, it's fine, no harm can be done, right?
On March 21 2019 00:39 xelnaga_empire wrote: [quote]
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
Pinnacle is based in the Netherlands. They have Laws there that protect gamblers. Match fixing breaks those Laws. Law enforcement there should investigate.
On the SC2 side of things, Blizzard is the only relevant organization for an investigation. It’s in there best interest to root out anything that takes away from the integrity of the game. They should look into how the tournament was run, see if there’s any discrepancies, ask questions. You know, just some basic investigation stuff. They recently had to do this with Hearthstone with win trading aligations (and only after some strong public pressure I might add). They came to the conclusion that it happened, and responded accordingly.
Oh good. Get Pinnacle to send us more details of how they determined MacSed's match didn't have suspicious betting that warranted a refund. I'm sure they will issue a second statement. You go do that! /s
Yes, get Blizzard to investigate this too! You go do that! /s
Yes, that’s what I’m doing now. I’m asking for an investigation. Don’t you want Blizzard/Pinnacle/relevant authorities to look into this? Shouldn’t we expect that when the smoke alarm goes off, we check to see if there is a fire?
Then ask the damn officials. Do you realize you're here on some random internet forum? And as far as we know the fucking Pinnacle DID investigation. FFS at least remove the PInnacle from your post, it;s becoming pathetic.
Ask the authorities. If you cannot ask yourself for whatever reasons ask someone in that country to file it so the police has to start the investigation. This is just forum on the interwebz, you can post here for eternity and guess what, no investigation will be done. SURPRISE!
Of course what we say can have effects on peoples lifes, Shanas link was a great read that many that have posted here should read if you haven't. However Popkiller is not wrong in stating that based on the information we do have Macsed is likely guilty, you can disagree but that doesn't change anything. You think I'm a fool for posting my opinion and I think you're a fool if you actually believe that he is probably not guilty.
In regards to your attack on hiro, how is it is his responsibility to contact the authorities. Maybe I should post the same message back to you huh? Since you seem to think it so important that someone contacts the police for an investigation, you do it yourself!
The most critical thing you do miss there is that all of us here could contact the authorities and ask them to look into this but you know what nothing would happen. I live in sweden so I don't "really" know about the police entity in other countries but I doubt they are leagues and bounds better than what we have here and let me tell you that there are a lot of important things that should be investigated that is not. This tiny issue would never be prioritized by the police just because all of us calls them. You know what could make them look into it? If bigger corporations/organizations starts making their voices heard.
We have no power here and nothing we do would lead to a "proper" investigation unless Blizzard/pinnacle/WESG pressure the authorities and why would they do that you ask? Because we pressure them as a community.
The sad part is I think you already realized this but you don't really care if an investigation is made you just wants us that are of a different opinion to shut up, to silence us. That is more pathetic than anything hiro posted.
How? I don't know, did you try going to the Police station and reporting a possible crime? It's not that hard, they invite you inside, give you a cup of tea/cofee or just water, then they will listen to you, write a report, you read it, then you sign it and then the investigation starts.
Or go to a lawyer and get help from someone who makes LIVING out of this. This person should know how to report a crime oversees. Yes, this will result in YOU paying money for a professional help.
Like, people, do you have any idea how the society works?
I'm not gonna report anything, because I think no crime happened. But all these witch hunters who think crime happened should report THE CRIME TO THE ONLY AUTHORITY THAT CAN PROPERLY INVESTIGATE IT!!!!
On March 21 2019 13:34 feardragon wrote: My point was not “I think this happened”. It was, before we publicly condemn a player and end a 10+ year career and livlihood of a player, let’s wait until we hear their side of the story. I said multiple times it was weird and suspicious but that I believe in waiting to hear all sides because public opinion is not something easily reversed. I gave an off example of something unlikely but possible. Why are so many people taking this out of context?
Thank you feardragon. Good to see reasonable responses like this. Some of the behavior in this thread is absurd.
Like I said before, some people are so emotionally invested in seeing that MacSed is guilty, they are now throwing their pitchforks at Rotti because Rotti dared to share his opinion. That is absurd behavior and shows a lack of maturity.
Very much resembles the immature behavior of one particular poster throwing his pitchfork in the face of OP because he dared to share his opinion and bring this important topic into the light.
On March 21 2019 16:44 deacon.frost wrote:
On March 21 2019 15:48 Popkiller wrote:
On March 21 2019 15:06 Shana wrote:
On March 21 2019 13:53 Popkiller wrote: everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
Sangho disagrees with you. And lots of progamer where their game was deemed suspicious by community.
Unless there are updates from authority, I don't think this thread should stay open. This has turned into witch hunt.
I'm not hunting. Not saying Macsed should be banned from anything. If I were a tournament organizer, I wouldn't bar him from the tournament, not based on this information alone.
Yeah, you're doing nothing wrong, just keeping the fire for to burn the witch,but you're not the one throwing the witch into the fire nor the one really hunting. How could you, you're just typing words on internwebz, it's fine, no harm can be done, right?
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
Pinnacle is based in the Netherlands. They have Laws there that protect gamblers. Match fixing breaks those Laws. Law enforcement there should investigate.
On the SC2 side of things, Blizzard is the only relevant organization for an investigation. It’s in there best interest to root out anything that takes away from the integrity of the game. They should look into how the tournament was run, see if there’s any discrepancies, ask questions. You know, just some basic investigation stuff. They recently had to do this with Hearthstone with win trading aligations (and only after some strong public pressure I might add). They came to the conclusion that it happened, and responded accordingly.
Oh good. Get Pinnacle to send us more details of how they determined MacSed's match didn't have suspicious betting that warranted a refund. I'm sure they will issue a second statement. You go do that! /s
Yes, get Blizzard to investigate this too! You go do that! /s
Yes, that’s what I’m doing now. I’m asking for an investigation. Don’t you want Blizzard/Pinnacle/relevant authorities to look into this? Shouldn’t we expect that when the smoke alarm goes off, we check to see if there is a fire?
Then ask the damn officials. Do you realize you're here on some random internet forum? And as far as we know the fucking Pinnacle DID investigation. FFS at least remove the PInnacle from your post, it;s becoming pathetic.
Ask the authorities. If you cannot ask yourself for whatever reasons ask someone in that country to file it so the police has to start the investigation. This is just forum on the interwebz, you can post here for eternity and guess what, no investigation will be done. SURPRISE!
Of course what we say can have effects on peoples lifes, Shanas link was a great read that many that have posted here should read if you haven't. However Popkiller is not wrong in stating that based on the information we do have Macsed is likely guilty, you can disagree but that doesn't change anything. You think I'm a fool for posting my opinion and I think you're a fool if you actually believe that he is probably not guilty.
In regards to your attack on hiro, how is it is his responsibility to contact the authorities. Maybe I should post the same message back to you huh? Since you seem to think it so important that someone contacts the police for an investigation, you do it yourself!
The most critical thing you do miss there is that all of us here could contact the authorities and ask them to look into this but you know what nothing would happen. I live in sweden so I don't "really" know about the police entity in other countries but I doubt they are leagues and bounds better than what we have here and let me tell you that there are a lot of important things that should be investigated that is not. This tiny issue would never be prioritized by the police just because all of us calls them. You know what could make them look into it? If bigger corporations/organizations starts making their voices heard.
We have no power here and nothing we do would lead to a "proper" investigation unless Blizzard/pinnacle/WESG pressure the authorities and why would they do that you ask? Because we pressure them as a community.
The sad part is I think you already realized this but you don't really care if an investigation is made you just wants us that are of a different opinion to shut up, to silence us. That is more pathetic than anything hiro posted.
How? I don't know, did you try going to the Police station and reporting a possible crime? It's not that hard, they invite you inside, give you a cup of tea/cofee or just water, then they will listen to you, write a report, you read it, then you sign it and then the investigation starts.
Or go to a lawyer and get help from someone who makes LIVING out of this. This person should know how to report a crime oversees. Yes, this will result in YOU paying money for a professional help.
Like, people, do you have any idea how the society works?
I'm not gonna report anything, because I think no crime happened. But all these witch hunters who think crime happened should report THE CRIME TO THE ONLY AUTHORITY THAT CAN PROPERLY INVESTIGATE IT!!!!
Alright, maybe there's been a misunderstanding, I will try to be clear. This is only a question to you, a basic yes or no question.
Presume that an actual crime happened, just play with the idea that Macsed actually matchfixed. If I do report my suspicion to the police, if I do the above steps you so clearly spell out for me do you believe (presuming that he actually IS guilty) that the authorities would properly investigate, find proof and prosecute him?
Remember this is a basic yes or no question, also I perceive your reply as quite disrespectful, please try to keep a civil discussion.
On March 21 2019 19:16 Shuffleblade wrote: Presume that an actual crime happened, just play with the idea that Macsed actually matchfixed. If I do report my suspicion to the police, if I do the above steps you so clearly spell out for me do you believe (presuming that he actually IS guilty) that the authorities would properly investigate, find proof and prosecute him?.
Why would the authorities investigate when Pinnacle has already said there was no suspicious betting that would require a refund of the bets? On top of this,WESG has nothing to say on this too? What a waste of time for them to investigate.
On March 21 2019 13:34 feardragon wrote: My point was not “I think this happened”. It was, before we publicly condemn a player and end a 10+ year career and livlihood of a player, let’s wait until we hear their side of the story. I said multiple times it was weird and suspicious but that I believe in waiting to hear all sides because public opinion is not something easily reversed. I gave an off example of something unlikely but possible. Why are so many people taking this out of context?
Thank you feardragon. Good to see reasonable responses like this. Some of the behavior in this thread is absurd.
Like I said before, some people are so emotionally invested in seeing that MacSed is guilty, they are now throwing their pitchforks at Rotti because Rotti dared to share his opinion. That is absurd behavior and shows a lack of maturity.
Very much resembles the immature behavior of one particular poster throwing his pitchfork in the face of OP because he dared to share his opinion and bring this important topic into the light.
On March 21 2019 16:44 deacon.frost wrote:
On March 21 2019 15:48 Popkiller wrote:
On March 21 2019 15:06 Shana wrote:
On March 21 2019 13:53 Popkiller wrote: everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
Sangho disagrees with you. And lots of progamer where their game was deemed suspicious by community.
Unless there are updates from authority, I don't think this thread should stay open. This has turned into witch hunt.
I'm not hunting. Not saying Macsed should be banned from anything. If I were a tournament organizer, I wouldn't bar him from the tournament, not based on this information alone.
Yeah, you're doing nothing wrong, just keeping the fire for to burn the witch,but you're not the one throwing the witch into the fire nor the one really hunting. How could you, you're just typing words on internwebz, it's fine, no harm can be done, right?
On March 21 2019 01:20 xelnaga_empire wrote: [quote]
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
Pinnacle is based in the Netherlands. They have Laws there that protect gamblers. Match fixing breaks those Laws. Law enforcement there should investigate.
On the SC2 side of things, Blizzard is the only relevant organization for an investigation. It’s in there best interest to root out anything that takes away from the integrity of the game. They should look into how the tournament was run, see if there’s any discrepancies, ask questions. You know, just some basic investigation stuff. They recently had to do this with Hearthstone with win trading aligations (and only after some strong public pressure I might add). They came to the conclusion that it happened, and responded accordingly.
Oh good. Get Pinnacle to send us more details of how they determined MacSed's match didn't have suspicious betting that warranted a refund. I'm sure they will issue a second statement. You go do that! /s
Yes, get Blizzard to investigate this too! You go do that! /s
Yes, that’s what I’m doing now. I’m asking for an investigation. Don’t you want Blizzard/Pinnacle/relevant authorities to look into this? Shouldn’t we expect that when the smoke alarm goes off, we check to see if there is a fire?
Then ask the damn officials. Do you realize you're here on some random internet forum? And as far as we know the fucking Pinnacle DID investigation. FFS at least remove the PInnacle from your post, it;s becoming pathetic.
Ask the authorities. If you cannot ask yourself for whatever reasons ask someone in that country to file it so the police has to start the investigation. This is just forum on the interwebz, you can post here for eternity and guess what, no investigation will be done. SURPRISE!
Of course what we say can have effects on peoples lifes, Shanas link was a great read that many that have posted here should read if you haven't. However Popkiller is not wrong in stating that based on the information we do have Macsed is likely guilty, you can disagree but that doesn't change anything. You think I'm a fool for posting my opinion and I think you're a fool if you actually believe that he is probably not guilty.
In regards to your attack on hiro, how is it is his responsibility to contact the authorities. Maybe I should post the same message back to you huh? Since you seem to think it so important that someone contacts the police for an investigation, you do it yourself!
The most critical thing you do miss there is that all of us here could contact the authorities and ask them to look into this but you know what nothing would happen. I live in sweden so I don't "really" know about the police entity in other countries but I doubt they are leagues and bounds better than what we have here and let me tell you that there are a lot of important things that should be investigated that is not. This tiny issue would never be prioritized by the police just because all of us calls them. You know what could make them look into it? If bigger corporations/organizations starts making their voices heard.
We have no power here and nothing we do would lead to a "proper" investigation unless Blizzard/pinnacle/WESG pressure the authorities and why would they do that you ask? Because we pressure them as a community.
The sad part is I think you already realized this but you don't really care if an investigation is made you just wants us that are of a different opinion to shut up, to silence us. That is more pathetic than anything hiro posted.
How? I don't know, did you try going to the Police station and reporting a possible crime? It's not that hard, they invite you inside, give you a cup of tea/cofee or just water, then they will listen to you, write a report, you read it, then you sign it and then the investigation starts.
Or go to a lawyer and get help from someone who makes LIVING out of this. This person should know how to report a crime oversees. Yes, this will result in YOU paying money for a professional help.
Like, people, do you have any idea how the society works?
I'm not gonna report anything, because I think no crime happened. But all these witch hunters who think crime happened should report THE CRIME TO THE ONLY AUTHORITY THAT CAN PROPERLY INVESTIGATE IT!!!!
Alright, maybe there's been a misunderstanding, I will try to be clear. This is only a question to you, a basic yes or no question.
Presume that an actual crime happened, just play with the idea that Macsed actually matchfixed. If I do report my suspicion to the police, if I do the above steps you so clearly spell out for me do you believe (presuming that he actually IS guilty) that the authorities would properly investigate, find proof and prosecute him?
Remember this is a basic yes or no question, also I perceive your reply as quite disrespectful, please try to keep a civil discussion.
Dude, they have to. Yes. It's their duty to investigate anything that can be a crime. Or you think, that if you file them a potential fraud, they will go - nah, why should we care and start playing games on their workstations? In what country do you live, you think this?
Edit> Of course if match fixing isn't considered a crime in the country there won't be any investigation. But that's something we don't change here anyway.
On March 21 2019 13:34 feardragon wrote: My point was not “I think this happened”. It was, before we publicly condemn a player and end a 10+ year career and livlihood of a player, let’s wait until we hear their side of the story. I said multiple times it was weird and suspicious but that I believe in waiting to hear all sides because public opinion is not something easily reversed. I gave an off example of something unlikely but possible. Why are so many people taking this out of context?
Thank you feardragon. Good to see reasonable responses like this. Some of the behavior in this thread is absurd.
Like I said before, some people are so emotionally invested in seeing that MacSed is guilty, they are now throwing their pitchforks at Rotti because Rotti dared to share his opinion. That is absurd behavior and shows a lack of maturity.
Very much resembles the immature behavior of one particular poster throwing his pitchfork in the face of OP because he dared to share his opinion and bring this important topic into the light.
On March 21 2019 16:44 deacon.frost wrote:
On March 21 2019 15:48 Popkiller wrote:
On March 21 2019 15:06 Shana wrote:
On March 21 2019 13:53 Popkiller wrote: everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
Sangho disagrees with you. And lots of progamer where their game was deemed suspicious by community.
Unless there are updates from authority, I don't think this thread should stay open. This has turned into witch hunt.
I'm not hunting. Not saying Macsed should be banned from anything. If I were a tournament organizer, I wouldn't bar him from the tournament, not based on this information alone.
Yeah, you're doing nothing wrong, just keeping the fire for to burn the witch,but you're not the one throwing the witch into the fire nor the one really hunting. How could you, you're just typing words on internwebz, it's fine, no harm can be done, right?
On March 21 2019 01:20 xelnaga_empire wrote: [quote]
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
Pinnacle is based in the Netherlands. They have Laws there that protect gamblers. Match fixing breaks those Laws. Law enforcement there should investigate.
On the SC2 side of things, Blizzard is the only relevant organization for an investigation. It’s in there best interest to root out anything that takes away from the integrity of the game. They should look into how the tournament was run, see if there’s any discrepancies, ask questions. You know, just some basic investigation stuff. They recently had to do this with Hearthstone with win trading aligations (and only after some strong public pressure I might add). They came to the conclusion that it happened, and responded accordingly.
Oh good. Get Pinnacle to send us more details of how they determined MacSed's match didn't have suspicious betting that warranted a refund. I'm sure they will issue a second statement. You go do that! /s
Yes, get Blizzard to investigate this too! You go do that! /s
Yes, that’s what I’m doing now. I’m asking for an investigation. Don’t you want Blizzard/Pinnacle/relevant authorities to look into this? Shouldn’t we expect that when the smoke alarm goes off, we check to see if there is a fire?
Then ask the damn officials. Do you realize you're here on some random internet forum? And as far as we know the fucking Pinnacle DID investigation. FFS at least remove the PInnacle from your post, it;s becoming pathetic.
Ask the authorities. If you cannot ask yourself for whatever reasons ask someone in that country to file it so the police has to start the investigation. This is just forum on the interwebz, you can post here for eternity and guess what, no investigation will be done. SURPRISE!
Of course what we say can have effects on peoples lifes, Shanas link was a great read that many that have posted here should read if you haven't. However Popkiller is not wrong in stating that based on the information we do have Macsed is likely guilty, you can disagree but that doesn't change anything. You think I'm a fool for posting my opinion and I think you're a fool if you actually believe that he is probably not guilty.
In regards to your attack on hiro, how is it is his responsibility to contact the authorities. Maybe I should post the same message back to you huh? Since you seem to think it so important that someone contacts the police for an investigation, you do it yourself!
The most critical thing you do miss there is that all of us here could contact the authorities and ask them to look into this but you know what nothing would happen. I live in sweden so I don't "really" know about the police entity in other countries but I doubt they are leagues and bounds better than what we have here and let me tell you that there are a lot of important things that should be investigated that is not. This tiny issue would never be prioritized by the police just because all of us calls them. You know what could make them look into it? If bigger corporations/organizations starts making their voices heard.
We have no power here and nothing we do would lead to a "proper" investigation unless Blizzard/pinnacle/WESG pressure the authorities and why would they do that you ask? Because we pressure them as a community.
The sad part is I think you already realized this but you don't really care if an investigation is made you just wants us that are of a different opinion to shut up, to silence us. That is more pathetic than anything hiro posted.
How? I don't know, did you try going to the Police station and reporting a possible crime? It's not that hard, they invite you inside, give you a cup of tea/cofee or just water, then they will listen to you, write a report, you read it, then you sign it and then the investigation starts.
Or go to a lawyer and get help from someone who makes LIVING out of this. This person should know how to report a crime oversees. Yes, this will result in YOU paying money for a professional help.
Like, people, do you have any idea how the society works?
I'm not gonna report anything, because I think no crime happened. But all these witch hunters who think crime happened should report THE CRIME TO THE ONLY AUTHORITY THAT CAN PROPERLY INVESTIGATE IT!!!!
Alright, maybe there's been a misunderstanding, I will try to be clear. This is only a question to you, a basic yes or no question.
Presume that an actual crime happened, just play with the idea that Macsed actually matchfixed. If I do report my suspicion to the police, if I do the above steps you so clearly spell out for me do you believe (presuming that he actually IS guilty) that the authorities would properly investigate, find proof and prosecute him?
Remember this is a basic yes or no question, also I perceive your reply as quite disrespectful, please try to keep a civil discussion.
Yes. Sorry to barge in, i know i wasnt the one addressed, but yes, authorities can and should investigate crimes, such as fraud. Whether they would in China that's impossible for us here to say.
They did in Korea, and there were multiple convictions. Not by esports organizations, by actual prosecutors and law enforcement. Several times actually
Some people in this thread seem to misunderstand what a public forum is. The OP presented us a case of possible match fixing and we can all express our opinions on this. If someone concludes that this evidence indeed looks compelling that doesn't mean that person is on a "witch hunt". You can disagree and engage in discussion but you shouldn't try to close the thread. Having it gain a few more pages and be visible in a side bar a bit longer won't matter much anyway.
On March 21 2019 21:05 Penev wrote: Some people in this thread seem to misunderstand what a public forum is. The OP presented us a case of possible match fixing and we can all express our opinions on this. If someone concludes that this evidence indeed looks compelling that doesn't mean that person is on a "witch hunt". You can disagree and engage in discussion but you shouldn't try to close the thread. Having it gain a few more pages and be visible in a side bar a bit longer won't matter much anyway.
Also we are not in a criminal court.
This would indeed be the case in an ideal world. However have we really not seen enough instances of public accusations by random online nobodies significantly hurting people? Do you really want to ignore that some people are actually assholes enough that the whole act of condemning someone is pleasant to them, really not quite unlike in the case of the literal witch hunt? You are not even on a high horse here, because the proverbial horse is belly-deep in a swamp made mainly of excrement (a.k.a. the 2019 internet).
Alright, maybe there's been a misunderstanding, I will try to be clear. This is only a question to you, a basic yes or no question.
Presume that an actual crime happened, just play with the idea that Macsed actually matchfixed. If I do report my suspicion to the police, if I do the above steps you so clearly spell out for me do you believe (presuming that he actually IS guilty) that the authorities would properly investigate, find proof and prosecute him?
Remember this is a basic yes or no question, also I perceive your reply as quite disrespectful, please try to keep a civil discussion.
Dude, they have to. Yes. It's their duty to investigate anything that can be a crime. Or you think, that if you file them a potential fraud, they will go - nah, why should we care and start playing games on their workstations? In what country do you live, you think this?
Edit> Of course if match fixing isn't considered a crime in the country there won't be any investigation. But that's something we don't change here anyway.
On March 21 2019 20:43 Geo.Rion wrote:
Yes. Sorry to barge in, i know i wasnt the one addressed, but yes, authorities can and should investigate crimes, such as fraud. Whether they would in China that's impossible for us here to say.
They did in Korea, and there were multiple convictions. Not by esports organizations, by actual prosecutors and law enforcement. Several times actually
This really helps me understand your perspective on this issue, I do actually file police reports in my work. Its not what I mainly do but every 2-3 months or so I usually put together a report to the police due to a crime. I also gets their questions in regards to the report and gets to know what they ultimately do with the report. I would believe the crimes I report are more serious than the issue at hand in this thread, from a police perspective and let me tell you the authorities usually does not do much. Usually we need to provide a shitton of actual evidence for anything to happen beyond them talking with the accused which obviously seldom lead anywhere.
From what I understand the police looks at the evidence provided to them and asks the question, is this enough for a judge to bring this to the court or is there "easy", fast and none expensive additonal actions that can be done in order to make it likely that a judge would take this case. The police at least in my country can do very little unless there are strong evidence already submitted, even for them to ask for bankstatements they need compelling evidence even before gathering that information.
The above is my experience with our local law enforcement, it might not actually reflect reality or how the authorities work in other countries but personally I have extremely little faith in the authorities when it comes to small issues like this. The police usually have very limited resources and they often will not investigate reports beyond looking at the information provided in the report depending on the crime in question. More severe crimes are often prioritized.
I only expanded on my opinion and experience to explain why I think the way I do, the authority needs to be pressured from a bigger entity than a private person to do any real investigation. That is what I think
On March 21 2019 21:05 Penev wrote: Some people in this thread seem to misunderstand what a public forum is. The OP presented us a case of possible match fixing and we can all express our opinions on this. If someone concludes that this evidence indeed looks compelling that doesn't mean that person is on a "witch hunt". You can disagree and engage in discussion but you shouldn't try to close the thread. Having it gain a few more pages and be visible in a side bar a bit longer won't matter much anyway.
Also we are not in a criminal court.
This would indeed be the case in an ideal world. However have we really not seen enough instances of public accusations by random online nobodies significantly hurting people? Do you really want to ignore that some people are actually assholes enough that the whole act of condemning someone is pleasant to them, really not quite unlike in the case of the literal witch hunt? You are not even on a high horse here, because the proverbial horse is belly-deep in a swamp made mainly of excrement (a.k.a. the 2019 internet).
So you're saying we should close all threads because there is a risk a person on the internet whom enjoy posting mean things will post mean things? Yeah lets stop all discussions because there could come people here and say bad stuff, better just to stop all talking so that never happens....
People don't understand betting line and it's totally normal, it's a niche thing in eSports and I am glad it is.
But, anyone saying that "Pinnacle not voiding the match" is compelling evidence against match fixing just doesn't get it.
The replay itself is beyond sketchy. It's a really dumb replay. It feels like a throw. But, yes, by itself, it's not enough to accuse him and ban him, I agree. It could happen sometime : him just not caring enough, feeling like he just can't lose against him and then a bunch of weird circumstances... maybe it's one of those 1 in a 1000 brain fart game from MacSed.
Betting line changing last minute to the point of bringing it to 1-1 for that outcome. It's a really big and really dumb bet. It's a lot of money for an outcome that is extremly unlikely and also for only a 1-1 return : basically the worst bet you could ever make. 1% or less chance of happening, you lose a big amount of money if it doesn't happen but only double up if it does. Why would anyone ever bet that without knowing the outcome in advance? Also, that didn't happen to any other betting line of WESG. Only that match. Again, by itself it's really not enough to accuse MacSed. It's sketchy, but not enough. It could be someone just betting a much bigger amount than expected, maybe clicking really quick and not realising and not paying any attention on how significant the amount is and how it would affect the odd, suddenly making his bet idiotic : this probably almost never happens but, maybe this time it did.
When you combine both those extremly unlikely scenario of him playing that terrible game + someone betting a large amount of money on him playing such a terrible game without any odd advantage meaning that it's basically a extremly shitty bet, that, again, didn't happen in any other betting line during WESG that I'm aware... The only logical conclusion is that MacSed threw that game.
Pinnacle not voiding it is definitly not an argument. It doesn't factor in at all. They don't automatically void a bet that changes the betting line last minute in a dumb way and it's highly likely that Pinnacle just doesn't care enough. It's not illegal to make a dumb bet. The total amount of the bet was probably just not significant enough for them to justify an investigation. They just don't care. Yes, the bet was quite big compared to other WESG matches if it could move the line that much, but, SC2 WESG is probably such a niche event that it can't be an enormous amount either. It's probably just not significant enough for Pinnacle to care about it.
To me, the only logical explanation is that MacSed threw. Nothing else make sense. Now if there would be just one other scenario that make sense I think we should give the benefit of the doubt... I just can't think of any.
All of these people defending Macsed. I don't understand how they take a look at the Vods and not come to the conclusion that Macsed has deliberately set out to lose. Did they not see the Vods, or do they simply have an extremely low SC2 level of knowledge?
I can understand if you are employed by WESG, or are best mates with Macsed that you'll want to defend him, but otherwise is just embarrassing.
On March 21 2019 21:05 Penev wrote: Some people in this thread seem to misunderstand what a public forum is. The OP presented us a case of possible match fixing and we can all express our opinions on this. If someone concludes that this evidence indeed looks compelling that doesn't mean that person is on a "witch hunt". You can disagree and engage in discussion but you shouldn't try to close the thread. Having it gain a few more pages and be visible in a side bar a bit longer won't matter much anyway.
Also we are not in a criminal court.
This would indeed be the case in an ideal world. However have we really not seen enough instances of public accusations by random online nobodies significantly hurting people? Do you really want to ignore that some people are actually assholes enough that the whole act of condemning someone is pleasant to them, really not quite unlike in the case of the literal witch hunt? You are not even on a high horse here, because the proverbial horse is belly-deep in a swamp made mainly of excrement (a.k.a. the 2019 internet).
This just says to me you didn't actually consider the evidence. You're painting a picture of broader (internet) behavior and accuse this particular "random online nobody" of said behavior. Don't generalize. Just go from case to case. If you think this OP is one of those you describe than go ahead and say so. I happen to think the evidence is there to be suspicious about this particular match. You are free to disagree.
Edit: You didn't necessarily not consider the evidence. Maybe I got that notion from an earlier post. My bad.
If you're playing a significantly lower level player in something that isn't a best of one, if you make a horrible mistake and get behind, calling the game and starting fresh rather than exhausting yourself trying to make a comeback makes perfect sense.
On March 21 2019 23:54 BronzeKnee wrote: If you're playing a significantly lower level player in something that isn't a best of one, if you make a horrible mistake and get behind, calling the game and starting fresh rather than exhausting yourself trying to make a comeback makes perfect sense.
My interest is more in the betting line movement and specifics around it but I did see the game as well. I don't think you give a good impression of the game here. It's not that Macsed went full Taeja (quickly gg-ing after seeing that behind) and it wasn't exactly one mistake either.
On March 21 2019 23:54 BronzeKnee wrote: If you're playing a significantly lower level player in something that isn't a best of one, if you make a horrible mistake and get behind, calling the game and starting fresh rather than exhausting yourself trying to make a comeback makes perfect sense.
How about multiple "mistakes" one after another, from a badly executed cheese that hard countered the other guy, to simply microing so you would certainly lose? Against a diamond player. Forget about the matchfixing. Lets say betting line movement is just coincidence. Did you watch the vods. Do you still think Macsed didn't deliberately set out to lose based on the game? Then your SC2 knowledge is below diamond. Below Plat. Below Gold.
Not only that, MacSed plays super crisp in game 1 and 3, looking like he's swatting a fly. But sure, he let his guard down in game 2 to the point where he didn't know how to execute a platinum-level cannon rush anymore. Even forgetting all the "decision-making" mistakes in the game, the build itself was incredibly slow and conspicuous.
On March 21 2019 21:05 Penev wrote: Some people in this thread seem to misunderstand what a public forum is. The OP presented us a case of possible match fixing and we can all express our opinions on this. If someone concludes that this evidence indeed looks compelling that doesn't mean that person is on a "witch hunt". You can disagree and engage in discussion but you shouldn't try to close the thread. Having it gain a few more pages and be visible in a side bar a bit longer won't matter much anyway.
Also we are not in a criminal court.
This would indeed be the case in an ideal world. However have we really not seen enough instances of public accusations by random online nobodies significantly hurting people? Do you really want to ignore that some people are actually assholes enough that the whole act of condemning someone is pleasant to them, really not quite unlike in the case of the literal witch hunt? You are not even on a high horse here, because the proverbial horse is belly-deep in a swamp made mainly of excrement (a.k.a. the 2019 internet).
This just says to me you didn't actually consider the evidence. You're painting a picture of broader (internet) behavior and accuse this particular "random online nobody" of said behavior. Don't generalize. Just go from case to case. If you think this OP is one of those you describe than go ahead and say so. I happen to think the evidence is there to be suspicious about this particular match. You are free to disagree.
Edit: You didn't necessarily not consider the evidence. Maybe I got that notion from an earlier post. My bad.
I mean the OP is in vacuum fine, but then again, look at the responses, it attracts a lot of people that are dead set on some soft version of vigilante justice, berating anyone who disagrees etc. I have nothing against evidence being presented, but I can also see how discussions like these may hurt innocent people. There is a good reason why for example Wikipedia strongly filters what can you write about living persons and in those cases even their normal procedures for removal of material get sidestepped if needed.
TL is a high visibility page and with that comes responsibility. When people google macsed and see hundreds of posts condemning him for matchfixing, they will make their mind about him, despite him never being found guilty by anything remotely resembling an official body.
On March 21 2019 21:05 Penev wrote: Some people in this thread seem to misunderstand what a public forum is. The OP presented us a case of possible match fixing and we can all express our opinions on this. If someone concludes that this evidence indeed looks compelling that doesn't mean that person is on a "witch hunt". You can disagree and engage in discussion but you shouldn't try to close the thread. Having it gain a few more pages and be visible in a side bar a bit longer won't matter much anyway.
Also we are not in a criminal court.
This would indeed be the case in an ideal world. However have we really not seen enough instances of public accusations by random online nobodies significantly hurting people? Do you really want to ignore that some people are actually assholes enough that the whole act of condemning someone is pleasant to them, really not quite unlike in the case of the literal witch hunt? You are not even on a high horse here, because the proverbial horse is belly-deep in a swamp made mainly of excrement (a.k.a. the 2019 internet).
This just says to me you didn't actually consider the evidence. You're painting a picture of broader (internet) behavior and accuse this particular "random online nobody" of said behavior. Don't generalize. Just go from case to case. If you think this OP is one of those you describe than go ahead and say so. I happen to think the evidence is there to be suspicious about this particular match. You are free to disagree.
Edit: You didn't necessarily not consider the evidence. Maybe I got that notion from an earlier post. My bad.
I mean the OP is in vacuum fine, but then again, look at the responses, it attracts a lot of people that are dead set on some soft version of vigilante justice, berating anyone who disagrees etc. I have nothing against evidence being presented, but I can also see how discussions like these may hurt innocent people. There is a good reason why for example Wikipedia strongly filters what can you write about living persons and in those cases even their normal procedures for removal of material get sidestepped if needed.
TL is a high visibility page and with that comes responsibility. When people google macsed and see hundreds of posts condemning him for matchfixing, they will make their mind about him, despite him never being found guilty by anything remotely resembling an official body.
My initial post was aimed at people who accuse the OP and some who appear to be arguing in good faith of being like witch hunters. This thread has questionable posts on both sides of the discussion as is unfortunately often the case. I don't disagree with what you're saying here but I still think a thread like this should be possible to exist on TL when the evidence presented is convincing enough which I think it is. This does of course mean a highly damning thread now exist aimed at a real person which is especially unfortunate if said person is innocent. Are you of the position this thread should've been closed immediately or maybe at a later point?
There are also a lot of people attracted that are dead set on berating anyone who agrees. You are arguing from the point of view that Macsed is innocent and may be hurt by allegations and rumours, or are just arguing that matchfixing allegations should not ever be discussed even if the evidence is overwhelming. In either case, I have to ask you, did you watch the vods? Take a glance at game 3? Do you think Macsed did or did not deliberately set out to lose the game based on that?
On March 21 2019 21:05 Penev wrote: Some people in this thread seem to misunderstand what a public forum is. The OP presented us a case of possible match fixing and we can all express our opinions on this. If someone concludes that this evidence indeed looks compelling that doesn't mean that person is on a "witch hunt". You can disagree and engage in discussion but you shouldn't try to close the thread. Having it gain a few more pages and be visible in a side bar a bit longer won't matter much anyway.
Also we are not in a criminal court.
This would indeed be the case in an ideal world. However have we really not seen enough instances of public accusations by random online nobodies significantly hurting people? Do you really want to ignore that some people are actually assholes enough that the whole act of condemning someone is pleasant to them, really not quite unlike in the case of the literal witch hunt? You are not even on a high horse here, because the proverbial horse is belly-deep in a swamp made mainly of excrement (a.k.a. the 2019 internet).
This just says to me you didn't actually consider the evidence. You're painting a picture of broader (internet) behavior and accuse this particular "random online nobody" of said behavior. Don't generalize. Just go from case to case. If you think this OP is one of those you describe than go ahead and say so. I happen to think the evidence is there to be suspicious about this particular match. You are free to disagree.
Edit: You didn't necessarily not consider the evidence. Maybe I got that notion from an earlier post. My bad.
I mean the OP is in vacuum fine, but then again, look at the responses, it attracts a lot of people that are dead set on some soft version of vigilante justice, berating anyone who disagrees etc. I have nothing against evidence being presented, but I can also see how discussions like these may hurt innocent people. There is a good reason why for example Wikipedia strongly filters what can you write about living persons and in those cases even their normal procedures for removal of material get sidestepped if needed.
TL is a high visibility page and with that comes responsibility. When people google macsed and see hundreds of posts condemning him for matchfixing, they will make their mind about him, despite him never being found guilty by anything remotely resembling an official body.
My initial post was aimed at people who accuse the OP and some who appear to be arguing in good faith of being like witch hunters. This thread has questionable posts on both sides of the discussion as is unfortunately often the case. I don't disagree with what you're saying here but I still think a thread like this should be possible to exist on TL when the evidence presented is convincing enough which I think it is. This does of course mean a highly damning thread now exist aimed at a real person which is especially unfortunate if said person is innocent. Are you of the position this thread should've been closed immediately or maybe at a later point?
Honestly, even five years ago, I'd be like "muh free speech", but I feel that phase of my life was, in retrospect, pretty dumb. I would be now, after having learned how devastating internet damnation can be to people, willing to go as far as "no posts accusing people of wrongdoing unless they have been officially punished for that by at least tournament organizers if not law enforcement" site-wide. The lives of individual people are more important that the competitive integrity of video games.
The circumstances have been fairly thoroughly discussed, and now people are just having repetitive arguments about the 'right' amount of suspicion to have.