|
Kentor
United States5784 Posts
On August 10 2008 12:18 Kuja900 wrote:use the daum playe search in the tl search thing for daum u should see guide which has link to install and what buttons to click since the player is in korean dude this is GOM finals, so you have to use GOM player. Daum won't have it I think...
http://www.gomtv.net/classic/live/ you should click view live when the button is orange
|
On August 10 2008 12:18 Kuja900 wrote:use the daum playe search in the tl search thing for daum u should see guide which has link to install and what buttons to click since the player is in korean
uh isn't this going to be on the gom player? seeing as how it's the gomtv tournament...
I think you can dl and find the button for the stream at gomtv.net.
|
thanks for all the help guys
|
|
On August 10 2008 04:41 Atrioc wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2008 03:48 d_so wrote:On August 10 2008 03:45 Narrator wrote: According to Plexa's latest blog post, the maps will be ZvT imbalanced and Flash will pwn. Jaedong's ZvT has been lacking lately and it's probably because of the maps. =D
I don't care as long as Jaedong loses. gotta love this. if jaedong wins it's a testimony to his great skill overcoming zvt imbalanced maps. if jaedong loses it's excusable because of imabalanced maps. talk about a win/win thats a odd way to phrase it its not that "win/win" if you just state plainly that the maps are terran favored and thus jaedong will have a tougher time than flash to win. So of course its cool if the underdog wins and not as exciting if he loses, but that doest mean Flash wont get plenty of credit (and $70,000!) if he won.
I don't really know how unbalanced the maps are in Flash's favor.
Bluestorm is played twice and is pretty Z>T (not completely, but it definitely favors Z)
Then Katrina which, unlike the way it's being made out to be, is not T>Z at all. It's definitely T=Z. The only reason it's being made to be "unbalanced" is because Flash>Jaedong consistently on this map... and that means the fault is on Jaedong, not the map.
Othello is definitely T>Z but, like Bluestorm, it's not totally in one races favor. Jaedong can overcome if he is a champion
Colosseum is the only map that is very T>Z and unbalanced.
Overall I'd say if Jaedong loses the maps were in his favor moreso than Flash. Playing Jaedong on Bluestorm twice is going to be hard as hell for Flash if Jaedong plays like he used to.
|
Blue Storm winrates include both versions of Blue Storm so it's a little misleading I think. Terrans have been a lot more successful against Zerg on Blue Storm this season (7-6, 53.8%) than they were last season (18-38, 32.1%). Not saying it's a completely balanced map, but going by this season's results, the maps favor Flash (with Katrina SE being the only 50% TvZ map in the pool).
|
|
United States1865 Posts
On August 10 2008 13:07 Vasoline73 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2008 04:41 Atrioc wrote:On August 10 2008 03:48 d_so wrote:On August 10 2008 03:45 Narrator wrote: According to Plexa's latest blog post, the maps will be ZvT imbalanced and Flash will pwn. Jaedong's ZvT has been lacking lately and it's probably because of the maps. =D
I don't care as long as Jaedong loses. gotta love this. if jaedong wins it's a testimony to his great skill overcoming zvt imbalanced maps. if jaedong loses it's excusable because of imabalanced maps. talk about a win/win thats a odd way to phrase it its not that "win/win" if you just state plainly that the maps are terran favored and thus jaedong will have a tougher time than flash to win. So of course its cool if the underdog wins and not as exciting if he loses, but that doest mean Flash wont get plenty of credit (and $70,000!) if he won. I don't really know how unbalanced the maps are in Flash's favor. Bluestorm is played twice and is pretty Z>T (not completely, but it definitely favors Z) Then Katrina which, unlike the way it's being made out to be, is not T>Z at all. It's definitely T=Z. The only reason it's being made to be "unbalanced" is because Flash>Jaedong consistently on this map... and that means the fault is on Jaedong, not the map. Othello is definitely T>Z but, like Bluestorm, it's not totally in one races favor. Jaedong can overcome if he is a champion Colosseum is the only map that is very T>Z and unbalanced. Overall I'd say if Jaedong loses the maps were in his favor moreso than Flash. Playing Jaedong on Bluestorm twice is going to be hard as hell for Flash if Jaedong plays like he used to.
that doesnt really make sense so there are 2 balanced maps and 1 map that somewhat favors terran and 1 map that dominantly favors terran
how does that mean the maps are in jaedong's favor?
|
On August 10 2008 15:07 Atrioc wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2008 13:07 Vasoline73 wrote:On August 10 2008 04:41 Atrioc wrote:On August 10 2008 03:48 d_so wrote:On August 10 2008 03:45 Narrator wrote: According to Plexa's latest blog post, the maps will be ZvT imbalanced and Flash will pwn. Jaedong's ZvT has been lacking lately and it's probably because of the maps. =D
I don't care as long as Jaedong loses. gotta love this. if jaedong wins it's a testimony to his great skill overcoming zvt imbalanced maps. if jaedong loses it's excusable because of imabalanced maps. talk about a win/win thats a odd way to phrase it its not that "win/win" if you just state plainly that the maps are terran favored and thus jaedong will have a tougher time than flash to win. So of course its cool if the underdog wins and not as exciting if he loses, but that doest mean Flash wont get plenty of credit (and $70,000!) if he won. I don't really know how unbalanced the maps are in Flash's favor. Bluestorm is played twice and is pretty Z>T (not completely, but it definitely favors Z) Then Katrina which, unlike the way it's being made out to be, is not T>Z at all. It's definitely T=Z. The only reason it's being made to be "unbalanced" is because Flash>Jaedong consistently on this map... and that means the fault is on Jaedong, not the map. Othello is definitely T>Z but, like Bluestorm, it's not totally in one races favor. Jaedong can overcome if he is a champion Colosseum is the only map that is very T>Z and unbalanced. Overall I'd say if Jaedong loses the maps were in his favor moreso than Flash. Playing Jaedong on Bluestorm twice is going to be hard as hell for Flash if Jaedong plays like he used to. that doesnt really make sense so there are 2 balanced maps and 1 map that somewhat favors terran and 1 map that dominantly favors terran how does that mean the maps are in jaedong's favor?
I wasn't really counting Bluestorm as too balanced. But I'd say Othello is to ZvT as Bluestorm is to TvZ.. so those balance out.
So really I take back saying Jaedong had a slight map advantage, because Colosseum is almost a sure win for Flash... but other than Colosseum I would say it's a completely fair map pool for Jaedong since he gets to play Bluestorm twice.
|
God, Jesus, Vishnu, Allah, Satan, Odin, Zeus, BoxeR, whoever will listen...
Please allow Gretech to stream this without fail despite their continued incompetence in the matter. My sleep schedule is completely the opposite of a normal human this summer to watch live BW, so I beseech you, stream wrk plz!
I guess I can always watch KOR but I want to maximize hits on Tasteless stream!
|
I really hope Flash takes this, but then it would probably be 10 pages of whining about maps. Would be cool if they both won on the maps they werent supposed to. Hoping for 5 games atleast
|
Oh man I'm not sure I should post this...I don't know if anyone will take it seriously...
fuck it.
Map advantage breakdown:
Othello has a 17-10 tvz record, whereas Colosseum has a 6-2 tvz record. Relatively small sample size for Colosseum, so lets just combine the two records, as we can all agree the maps are terran advantageous - 23-12 tvz for these two maps combined. This gives terran a 65.7% advantage over two maps.
Now, with the changing season, and the map tweak, it seems the former zerg advantage on Blue Storm is gone. But... though the map changed slightly, we can't know by how much, for sure, because of the 13 game sample size is quite small. So we have to count the original iteration, but regress it.
Here, I borrow from baseball, where the seasonal regression formula is r=.9994^days (which gives an r of .8 for one season prior, .6 for two seasons, and so on). Now because Starcraft is so volatile, I believe you have to regress a previous season by around 50% (noting that seasons are 90 days instead of 365). It is considerable amount, but the output looks safe: the regression equation would be r=.9924^days; at 90 days, one season, r=.499; at 180 days, two seasons, r=.249; at 270 days, r=.124; and at 365 days, r=.06. Basically what this means, is one season ago has 50% predictive value, two seasons has 25% predictive value, and so on. Only way to get an exact formula is to model the entire tlpd database, so this could be highly inaccurate...but this looks pretty good, and if i had to guess very close to reality.
As we have the methodology out of the way, regressing the previous season for Blue Storm gives us an effective 9-19 tvz, and combined with this season gives us 16-25 overall tvz. Effectively, terran has a 39% win percentage twice. Now because we regressed for Blue Storm, we have to do the same thing for Katrina. So its 20-16 tvz last season is effectively 10-8 relevant, and added to 3-3 this season we get 13-11 for a 54.2% advantage.
So the maps' win influences for terran (it should also be noted that race advantage, if one exists, is automatically factored into this, so you do not have to adjust further if such is your belief) are 39%, 65.7%, 54.2%, 65.7%, and 39%. If we simulate a series between equals, this gives Terran a 13.9% chance of sweep, a 26.7% chance of a 4 game win, and a 14.6% chance of a 5 game win, for a 55.3% expectency. For reference, zerg has a 9.6% chance of sweep, a 12.3% chance of a 4 game win, and a 22.9% chance for a 5 game win, for a 44.7% expectancy.
For fun, if Jaedong has a 5% skill advantage: terran victory: 3 games: 0.10153896 4 games: 0.223186082 5 games: 0.131477806 total: 0.456202847
zerg victory: 3 games: 0.13176504 4 games: 0.15681049 5 games: 0.255221623 total: 0.543797153
Flash with a 5% advantage: terran victory: 3 games: 0.18415936 4 games: 0.309401525 5 games: 0.15324863 total: 0.646809516
zerg victory: 3 games: 0.06694464 4 games: 0.091202133 5 games: 0.195043711 total: 0.353190484
|
|
On August 08 2008 10:36 On_Slaught wrote: Yes, both lost to ForGG. However, Jaedong has the advantage of actually training WITH ForGG, something Flash obviously doesn't have. I dont think we can overlook this advantage seeing as how good forgg is with research (he owes jaedong after embaressing him at MSL), and with him as a training partner I feel Jaedong has a huge edge going in.
Yeah, cause Flash wants to train with a terran to prepare against Jaedong. "Crap, my aren't my mass tanks working?!?!"
|
Is there any way to watch this in VLC?
|
On August 10 2008 16:46 xenero wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2008 10:36 On_Slaught wrote: Yes, both lost to ForGG. However, Jaedong has the advantage of actually training WITH ForGG, something Flash obviously doesn't have. I dont think we can overlook this advantage seeing as how good forgg is with research (he owes jaedong after embaressing him at MSL), and with him as a training partner I feel Jaedong has a huge edge going in. Yeah, cause Flash wants to train with a terran to prepare against Jaedong. "Crap, my aren't my mass tanks working?!?!"
What other zergs can Flash train on? Lux?
|
On August 10 2008 16:46 xenero wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2008 10:36 On_Slaught wrote: Yes, both lost to ForGG. However, Jaedong has the advantage of actually training WITH ForGG, something Flash obviously doesn't have. I dont think we can overlook this advantage seeing as how good forgg is with research (he owes jaedong after embaressing him at MSL), and with him as a training partner I feel Jaedong has a huge edge going in. Yeah, cause Flash wants to train with a terran to prepare against Jaedong. "Crap, my aren't my mass tanks working?!?!"
just wait for katrina ....
jk (I hope because jd does poorly against metal EVERY TIME)
|
|
On August 10 2008 17:16 WindCalibur wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2008 16:46 xenero wrote:On August 08 2008 10:36 On_Slaught wrote: Yes, both lost to ForGG. However, Jaedong has the advantage of actually training WITH ForGG, something Flash obviously doesn't have. I dont think we can overlook this advantage seeing as how good forgg is with research (he owes jaedong after embaressing him at MSL), and with him as a training partner I feel Jaedong has a huge edge going in. Yeah, cause Flash wants to train with a terran to prepare against Jaedong. "Crap, my aren't my mass tanks working?!?!" What other zergs can Flash train on? Lux?
To be honest the way JD is playing any zerg in the top 30 ZvT will be pretty close .. Lux ZvT is more stable at the moment ...
|
cant wait for it to start. I have been there when this 2 met in the GomStar invitational. Now, i am back here for the rematch.
|
|
|
|