On the "Artosis Curse", Luck and Liquibet in SC2. - Page 20
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omgimonfire15
United States233 Posts
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Supert0fu
United States499 Posts
On February 25 2013 05:01 omgimonfire15 wrote: Well maybe its a bad comparison, but look at the NCAA basketball this season. So many upsets, I think the #1 lost five weeks in a row. And look at march madness, there are usually huge upsets every year. I don't think that's because basketball is a broken sport, I think it all has to do with the players, momentum, and randomness. Except this isn't true. The lowest seed to every win a national championship was 8. Cinderellas don't exist; most of the time the teams that are supposed to win do win. Certainly at a higher percentage than what we see in starcraft. | ||
Demonhunter04
1530 Posts
On February 24 2013 23:51 rotegirte wrote: why hasn't anyone called bullshit on that yet? a person that randomly bets would have had a probability of B(118;236;0.5)=0,05 of guessing half of the bets right Wouldn't that be the odds of getting EXACTLY half the bets right? If you pick one of two choices at random over a large number of attempts, your score will converge on 50%, but not necessarily reach that exact value. | ||
omgimonfire15
United States233 Posts
On February 25 2013 05:10 Supert0fu wrote: Except this isn't true. The lowest seed to every win a national championship was 8. Cinderellas don't exist; most of the time the teams that are supposed to win do win. Certainly at a higher percentage than what we see in starcraft. I'm not talking about national champiopnships. How many random people who are arguably bad win the premier tournaments? Same thing happens in march madness. the best teams win, but early on, bad teams beat good teams. Last year in the first round, 10 higher seeded teams lost to lower seeded teams including Duke and Missouri lousing, both seeded 2nd in their regional. After the first round last year, only 3 people who made brackets online were perfect. I don't exactly understand what your saying isn't true, all I was saying that basketball has a lot of upsets, especially at the highest level. Even experts were fooled. It seems to me, that its similar in starcraft. early on, there are a lot of upsets and random wins, but in the end, it seems as though the best play at the highest level. | ||
NukeD
Croatia1612 Posts
On February 25 2013 03:25 nomyx wrote: speaking about fog of war and RTS games, has there ever been an RTS without fog of war? Stronghold! | ||
ZeromuS
Canada13372 Posts
On February 25 2013 00:15 Twinkle Toes wrote: Damned that Artosis curse talk again People used to use this argument back when foreigners and koreans were equal at a competitive level and it fell apart. The reality is, with ladder, everyone plays everyone and so they consistently strive towards similar levels of performance. There are very few hidden strats, and the game has evolved in WoL to what appear to be optimal strategies as a result of deficiencies in each individual race design. The turtling of zerg to their very strong lategame, the specific timings of protoss to exploit the tech investments of zerg, and the same story for PvT though in different roles (protoss turtle, terran timings). ZvT however is more of an attrition based battle where in the terran hits a timing that allows him to continuously pressure from that moment on. Its a bit different but similar. so far in hots the games seem to be a little more back and forth and not so penultimate as in wol with the exception of skytoss PvZ so far. This I think is the only penultimate turtle army I have seen yet. | ||
TheNthMemory
United States17 Posts
On February 24 2013 23:51 rotegirte wrote: why hasn't anyone called bullshit on that yet? a person that randomly bets would have had a probability of B(118;236;0.5)=0,05 of guessing half of the bets right Why are you going off on someone who forgot 3 words? | ||
tobijdc
Austria5 Posts
I think there is a big difference between Starcraft and traditional Sports. Traditional Sports rely (often) on minimalistic rules and still the game evolves over time. Furthermore in Tennis you have 'Points', 'Games', 'Sets' and the 'Match', you don't judge a winner just after one Game, that would be too random. Starcraft is allot more complicated, is much younger and has rules, that quickly change. Also to determine a winner we use Bo3/Bo5 and only sometimes Bo7. I personally think, that if every confrontation in Starcraft was a Bo9 or higher, we would have players, reach a 80% winrate (atlest for a matchup).. in winning the Bo9 that is. In Tennis you also don't count each Point/Game/Set and calculate a winrate by that.. that would be stupid.. and thats exactly the way I feel about win rates calculated by sc2-game and not 'confrontation' (Bo3/5/7) Edit: and btw. Liquidbet has bets that are less than 50% and that are the bets who will make it out of the group | ||
ChrysaliS_
United States261 Posts
On February 25 2013 06:23 ZeromuS wrote: People used to use this argument back when foreigners and koreans were equal at a competitive level and it fell apart. The reality is, with ladder, everyone plays everyone and so they consistently strive towards similar levels of performance. There are very few hidden strats, and the game has evolved in WoL to what appear to be optimal strategies as a result of deficiencies in each individual race design. The turtling of zerg to their very strong lategame, the specific timings of protoss to exploit the tech investments of zerg, and the same story for PvT though in different roles (protoss turtle, terran timings). ZvT however is more of an attrition based battle where in the terran hits a timing that allows him to continuously pressure from that moment on. Its a bit different but similar. so far in hots the games seem to be a little more back and forth and not so penultimate as in wol with the exception of skytoss PvZ so far. This I think is the only penultimate turtle army I have seen yet. I don't think you know what penultimate means | ||
WonnaPlay
Netherlands912 Posts
So far I've missed MC vs RorO because I genuinely thought that MC would win, but after that I haven't been wrong yet. 12 correct votes in a row, including the whole GSTL, part of Proleague round 3 and day 2 ro24 Code A. IMO the game is not as much broken as it just isn't figured out completely. Continous patching makes it hard to go really stagnant with the players. Terran used to dominate for a while , then protoss for a bit and now Zerg for a long while. HotS will make everything different again and LotV will also stirr things up whenever that happens. You can't compare Sc2 with Tennis, because 1 little mistake in Sc2 might cost you the game whilst 1 little mistake in tennis will just make you lose a point. | ||
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