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On July 12 2016 00:39 stilt wrote: Quintana disappointed me, ok, Arcalis is a stupid highway with not much variation in the % of the slope but still, he could have tried, he was the only one able to follow Froome's accelaration... He is a formidable rider but among all the pure climber like Schleck or Pantani, he is disappointing, I hope he loses the tour against Froome, he is maybe way more elegant and class on a bike but he does not have any panach, a quality that Chris has.
Lol. Sometimes I read stuff and can't help but wonder if we watch the same races. Quintana is always attacking and animating races. Look at Alp'd Huez last year, relentlessly taking risks early trying to crack Froome even when Froome had teammates with him. He's not flashy on downhills, I'll give you that, but Quintana consistently animates when races get into the mountains.
I'm sure he has his reasons for why he played a safe race Sunday. Maybe he could sense that now wasn't the time. Maybe he has something particularly niced planned for later and is saving it. Maybe he was near his limit. Maybe there was headwind making it not worth it. Maybe he is playing mindgames with Froome. Who knows?
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Sorry guys, I spent two days with my gf, feels like I've been gone from this thread forever
On the bright side, two more 38km bike rides and a nice hike to some waterfalls (also got a new PR of 1:14 for that 38km, which I'm quite happy with, I'd love to get a sub 1:10 before the end of the summer, though it's quite dependent on traffic and lights and whatnot).
Anyway, unfortunate about Contador for sure, this way at least I don't need to have this false hope of having a chance in fantasy thinking Contador has a chance to get better. I'm not sure how much his injuries played a role though, it's quite possible that he's just struggling, it's not that uncommon for a top guy to just struggle, he did have some sickness right before the Tour. Kind of surprising that the first withdrawal happened on Stage 8.
I haven't watched either of the last two stages, just looked at the classifications on letour, so I think I'll go watch the last 20km~ of the last 2 stages now.
Anyway, from the few interviews I've read and the little I've been keeping up on... My surprises are:
Yates: I had a good feeling about a top 10 for him, but damn, he's been looking great. Purito: This guy always surprises me, I think he's going to retire any year now, or he's going to drop off, but damn, he really delivers every year. He's had 8 years in a row where he's finished 7th or better in a grand tour, very impressive. Bardet: I would have not been surprised at all if Bardet was in Pinots spot, he's doing better than I expected for sure, I suppose I should've trusted him as he did good work in my fantasy last year. Aru: I guess you win Eric, I really expected a bit more. I'll have to look at the stages in closer detail, as 13th is very surprising to me. I'd call it bad form most likely, I think Aru is capable of more, I'll be following him closely, I still think a top 5 is possible. Zakarin: Maybe he didn't recover, or maybe he's not trying since Katusha has another rider? Not looking like the top 5 rider in the Giro.
Besides the obvious Contador and Pinot surprises, and maybe Majka (he's been getting dropped kind of early and not helping Contador or Kreuziger, though maybe he's switched to doing nothing one stage to being 100% for the KoM in the next stage). Oh, and I guess I would have thought Nibali would be 15-25 and not 37, but that's a little thing, outside of that everyone is roughly where I'd expect them to be.
Anyway, I looking forward for the coming battle between Cavendish, Kittel, and Sagan for the green jersey. Also Fantasy is looking interesting, the 8 of you all within 400 points of each other.
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On July 12 2016 11:09 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2016 00:39 stilt wrote: Quintana disappointed me, ok, Arcalis is a stupid highway with not much variation in the % of the slope but still, he could have tried, he was the only one able to follow Froome's accelaration... He is a formidable rider but among all the pure climber like Schleck or Pantani, he is disappointing, I hope he loses the tour against Froome, he is maybe way more elegant and class on a bike but he does not have any panach, a quality that Chris has.
Lol. Sometimes I read stuff and can't help but wonder if we watch the same races. Quintana is always attacking and animating races. Look at Alp'd Huez last year, relentlessly taking risks early trying to crack Froome even when Froome had teammates with him. He's not flashy on downhills, I'll give you that, but Quintana consistently animates when races get into the mountains. I'm sure he has his reasons for why he played a safe race Sunday. Maybe he could sense that now wasn't the time. Maybe he has something particularly niced planned for later and is saving it. Maybe he was near his limit. Maybe there was headwind making it not worth it. Maybe he is playing mindgames with Froome. Who knows? At least for me Quintana's perception never ceases to amaze. He essentially never dropped further than 10cm from back of Froome except for once when he was caught by surprise.
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On July 12 2016 11:09 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2016 00:39 stilt wrote: Quintana disappointed me, ok, Arcalis is a stupid highway with not much variation in the % of the slope but still, he could have tried, he was the only one able to follow Froome's accelaration... He is a formidable rider but among all the pure climber like Schleck or Pantani, he is disappointing, I hope he loses the tour against Froome, he is maybe way more elegant and class on a bike but he does not have any panach, a quality that Chris has.
Lol. Sometimes I read stuff and can't help but wonder if we watch the same races. Quintana is always attacking and animating races. Look at Alp'd Huez last year, relentlessly taking risks early trying to crack Froome even when Froome had teammates with him. He's not flashy on downhills, I'll give you that, but Quintana consistently animates when races get into the mountains. I'm sure he has his reasons for why he played a safe race Sunday. Maybe he could sense that now wasn't the time. Maybe he has something particularly niced planned for later and is saving it. Maybe he was near his limit. Maybe there was headwind making it not worth it. Maybe he is playing mindgames with Froome. Who knows?
Taking risks at Alpes d'Huez? I don't want to be rude but since how many times do you follow cycling races? For a climber who wants the top of the general classement, Quintana is exceptionaly attentist, his only attacks on the tour 2015 were in the last 5 km of La Touissuire were he took 32 seconds of Froome despite a not very hard slope in the last km, he could have take more earlier, at leadt, he should have try because yeah, there is no risks at attacking at 5 km in such a pass, absolutely no risks of threatening Froome! The second attack come on the last stage in the last pass where there was no way Froome will lose more than the 2 minutes and sth needed... Btw every ex cycling racers I heard commenting ( Jalaber, Jacky Durand, Virenque, Cedric Vasseur) are surprised considering his exceptionnal season, based of this, he is probably stronger than the past years and there is no biais against Quintana, almost in France wants his victory over Froome ^^ You should really watch some Andy Schleck or Pantani stuffs, these guys were only good in riding and they always tried to gain time on these sort of stages. In consequence, they were attacking a lot and were able to do long run like the raid of Schleck on the Izoard and Galibier in 2011 and the multiple exploits that Pantani had done in such configurations. But I don't even ask Quintana to do such stuffs with the strengh of team Sky (even if T mobile was very strong too against Pantani), but when everyone attacks, try something too, Froome managed to beat everyone except him in his accelaration; he could have tried something at this moment, if he loses the tour for 10 seconds, that would be bad. Froome, when he is not the favorite of a race or when he is second, attacks a lot, same goes for Contador, not Quintana, this is obvious.
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Sick breakaway group left
Sagan vs Van Avermaet vs Boasson Hagen vs Matthews with 2 teammates
and little man french Dumoulin as the dark horse
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Sucks to be good.
Everyone is out for you Poor Sagan, 2nd again.
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I'm hoping for a Quintana win here but I feel that he can also take more risks and has this extra level that for some reason he just doesn't tap into. Now I haven't been watching as many races as you all probably have so I probably don't know much ha. My prediction (or hope) is that Quintana goes into overdrive possibly on the last week and wins the damn TdF once and for all, granted he stays on Froome's wheel like he did last year, which I know he can.
And yea poor Sagan lol I feel like everyone in that breakaway wanted him to lose.
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I'm absolutely speechless, I can't help but say that Froome and Sagan are the 2 best riders in the world, what a brilliant performance.
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Beautiful, that struggle by Ettix when they saw Sagan go. Man, these things hurt for the sprinter teams, but absolutely fantastic performance. I guess he can thank Froome for that win:
"It seems apparent that Peter Sagan was very kindly preparing to usher his less heralded team-mate Maciej Bodnar through for the stage win, but was surprised to see Chris Froome still contesting matters behind him and had to continue riding to ensure the stage went to somebody on the Tinkoff team."
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That was insane! Sagan riding all day yesterday (!) just blows away from everyone in the front of the peloton today. It's like Messi, it's so great to watch such a masterful talent. Glorious.
Froome so smart and strong as well to seize that moment and being in front all day as well. Really made me a fan of his today! Quintana is done for, he has no chance to beat such a complete rider. He should've been on Froome's wheel all day because his team is clearly not good enough on these stages. Movistar couldn't even help the sprint teams chase... I predict a single succesful attack in the final mountain stage from him and that's it. Meanwhile Froome gains time every chance he's got and will destroy him in TT. We need a new challenger for Froome next year. My hopes are Kruijswijk and Dumoulin
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Now that I've managed to chill a bit, this looked more like a Belgian classic than a stage of TDF, 47.2Kph is crazy (although there was tailwind for a good part of the stage). Sagan didn't win yesterday but he more than made up for that with this win, essentially sentencing the green jersey fight.
And can be said about Froome? I'm sure people won't be talking about robot and boring Froome now. He 'only' won 12 secs to everybody else but did so in a way no one ever saw it coming. And the best thing for him is that it wasn't that big of an effort, it was pretty much 12Km flat-out but a guy like him probably will fully recover for tomorrow while intimidating even more his opponents.
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Keep in mind that last year Quintana gained 30 second on Froome on Stage 19 and 1:20 on Stage 20, and Froome was going all out. So I would not be so quick to pounce, this year he has lost a lot less time as well.
Also Purito losing over a minute today is pretty big, he went from 5th to 12th place in GC.
But yes, Sagan my favorite rider strikes again
edit: Also, potential bad news for tomorrow:
"Chris Froome extended his lead on the day before the race heads up the Ventoux, although tomorrow’s iconic stage may be truncated by six kilometres due to the dangers posed by high winds. Nairo Quintana will be desperately hoping the race goes all the way up the Giant of Provence”, it seems extremely unlikely to happen with winds of over 100 kilometres per hour being reported at the summit. Tune in tomorrow, for what promises to be a fascinating day’s racing, whatever the route."
Well, it's called Mount Windy for a reason. But this is meant to be the best stage of the Tour, grr. I really hope they don't.
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This TDF is by no means over, Quintana is still only 35 secs behind, it will be a matter of how much can Quintana win on the high mountains and not lose to Froome in the TT.
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Tomorrow stage is reduced, the 6 last kilometers are cancelled. The director of the Tour has confirmed that on french tv. It was the perfect climb for Quintana.
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Quintana has to beat Froome tomorrow already for me to gain back some trust in him
Though I heard the final 6km of Ventoux might be scrapped because of dangerously high wind speeds
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Even without the last 6 k to the top Ventoux is still a hard climb where you can make a difference.
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Yea!!!! Sagan is fun. Can't believe he pulled that off, but he picked a perfect spot in the crosswinds to make it work. Crafty dude. Froomepowa probably didn't hurt him either, and was kinda fun seeing Froome trying to give him a little go in the sprint.
Speaking of Froome, gotta give the guy credit for being right in the front and taking advantage of that move. It's clever, and especially so if he did it because Quintana wasn't on his wheel. It's too bad that's the kind of move that Quintana will never even be able to consider, completely impossible for a 5'6" guy that likely has like 375w or something max for FTP.
That said, only time will tell if these efforts are worth it. Both the downhill and today were very aggressive efforts for 10+ minutes for marginal time gains. Every second counts, but if this catches up with him in the next two days...or even near the end it could prove costly. Making these moves is different than doing them in the mountains. In the case of the downhill the chase was shared by a group of riders, and today Quintana didn't have to do any work and smartly didn't try to do anything solo either. On the other hand, if you go gangbusters in the mountains, everybody else goes at their absolute limit too, so you gain time working just as hard as everybody else. In the case of these two Froome moves, Froome worked MUCH harder than any other GC contender.
Tomorrow for me is a big day, even with the unfortunately shortened stage of Ventoux. If Quintana can't get seperation from Froome and a growing gap as he moves away, or heaven forbid the opposite occurs, then I'm about ready to hand the Tour to Froome. Quintana has to beat him in the mountains, and beat him badly over the course of them, as Froome is likely to gain at least 1:00-2:00 minutes in the TT. I'd say if Quintana comes out of Friday's TT down more than 3:00 he has no chance. 2:00 range I give him a slim margin. 1:00 range with a decisive advantage on Ventoux and we have ourselves an interesting tour.
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Yeah I dunno about that attack, if I knew that I'd gain 12 seconds for that effort as Froome, I probably wouldn't have done it.
Eric, my man, Quintana likes to wait for the opportune moment to strike. Also don't underestimate his TT, in the Tour de Romandie, he got 6th place in the ITT, a 15km one, and obtained the same time as Froome. He won the Route du Sud ITT of 13.4km (yes, I realize the competition was not the best), and got 2nd on the Vuelta al País Vasco ITT second to Contador, and beating the likes of.... Well a hell of a good riders: http://www.steephill.tv/vuelta-al-pais-vasco/
I'd be super shocked if Froome managed to take more than 90 seconds off of Quintana, I think realistically it'll be 30-45 or so seconds on that 37.5km/h. Mont Ventoux has no urgency imo, sure it'd be nice to get a few seconds, but far from the end of the world, Quintana has shown he's able to follow Froome's wheel on any climb, and the GC race has still hardly begun in terms of actual stages.
1) The toughest climb of the Tour will now be the Forclaz-Emosson duo, which is a 2,000 meter elevation gain climb, 7%+ the entire way up, with a tiny break half way through. The higher you go, the steeper this thing gets, and it's absolutely brutal, the more I look at this climb, the prettier it gets.
2) Joux Plane is essentially Alpe d'Huez 2.0, naturally people will give it 100%, and since there isn't another day to worry about, nobody will be thinking about the energy they should save, and thus every rider but one will break.
3) An ITT that has 5 of the 17km at 8%+, with another 3km at 4%+, get ready for a brutal stage. Due to the constant tempo changes, calculating it a bit incorrectly will leave you no power, and a couple minutes down in the GC.
4) Bettex and Bisanne, two climbs that are 9.8km at 8.0% and 12.4km, and 8.2% respectively. A summit finish and two of these climbs in one day, looks like a turbocharged Stage 9.
5) Gotta soften up those legs to make the four stages I just described more difficult. Well, why not give the riders a stage with hardly a single flat kilometer in it. A nice take on Stage 8, not really sure which one I'd consider more difficult.
Anyway, point is, thus far we've had two mountain stages which were probably easier than four of the aforementioned, and a Mount Windy will show the weak once again, but I don't think it's a necessary point to attack, and I think the fact that there's an ITT the next day, I'd probably tend to be very cautious here, and try to save my energy as much as I can.
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Sagan is a fkin legend: "When we were in the break away I told them we're too strong, they never gona catch us. It was crazy"
I can't say that much for Froome. Props to him for jumping on the situation and making the race more interesting but spending that much energy for 11 seconds is not justifiable from my perspective. We know he drops minutes in last week. I think Quintana is under no pressure right now, he knows 35-40 seconds is nothing. I wouldn't be surprised if he never attacked until last few climbs.
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Most insane tour stage I've ever seen, wtf. So unfortunate wow, results might get neutralized a bit.
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