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lol xRAPM (Consumer name Real Plus Minus) is good for evaluating starters.
Until this year i only watched about 4 Minnesota full games per year. Based on that and boxscore #s i thought Ricky Rubio was a mediocre-at-best PG. This year i watched ~15 full Minnesota games and I got a chance to really see Rubio do his thing. My original assessment was wrong. He is no Magic Johnson, but the guy is a good player. `Real Plus Minus` reflects Rubio's above-average to very good play as a starting PG. Rubio is the QB of both the offense and defense when he is on the floor. Thibodeau putting him in charge of the defense tells you he trusts Rubio.
imo, the big flaw with `Real Plus Minus` is that coaches very carefully employ their 15 minute-a-game guys. Coaches steer their weaker players away from situations they know they will fail. Coaches throw their starters into just about any situation. So you get these 15 minute a game guys like Kyle Anderson having a better Defense rating than Kawhi Leonard.
That said, I think Kyle Anderson is an above average defender. Right now, we have to rely on the eye test to evaluate Anderson's defense. The only way to know if Kyle Anderson is truly a top notch defender is once he plays a bunch of 30+ minute games.
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So this is ESPN's/Hollinger's metric?
The problem with your reasoning is that, especially with really good teams, is that the players are never put in bad situations. Steph Curry is not going to be asked to guard Kyrie Irving (or at least very rarely). Draymond Green does not play with shitty perimeter lineups very often and when he does it's mostly against bench players. This metric probably disfavors players with large burdens (hi WB) and players who are asked to do all sorts of jobs (Lebron, Kawhi).
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no, it is Adjusted Plus/Minus with some fancy math on top of it. it is jeremiah engelmann's and i think he "licenses its use" to ESPN under the consumer label "Real Plus/Minus".
running list of ESPN layoffs. http://deadspin.com/a-running-list-of-espn-layoffs-1794664091
On April 27 2017 03:23 Jerubaal wrote: This metric probably disfavors players with large burdens (hi WB) and players who are asked to do all sorts of jobs (Lebron, Kawhi). true. and it favours weak players that coaches protect by playing them limited minutes. The metric is best used alongside a player's Minutes/Game numbers. Its a lot harder to protect 38 minute/game guys.
the Metric is able to find guys like Patrick Patterson and Ricky Rubio who are far better than their boxscore #s. You can only see the value in guys like Rubio and Patterson by watching their respective teams a lot.
Basics of how Adjusted Plus/Minus works. + Show Spoiler +The idea behind adjusted plus-minus is that to get an accurate feel for a player’s value, we need to control for the presence of other players, both on offense and on defense. Before we get into the nitty gritty details, consider the general idea. Say you have three players and they are playing in a 2 on 2 basketball game. The plus-minus splits look like this: P1 + P2 on the court: +10 points P1 + P3 on the court: +8 points P2 + P3 on the court: +4 points Just from looking at this, you might reasonably guess that P1 is the best player on the court, but let’s do the math. This is a system of linear equations in three variables, so we can solve it algebraically to decide who contributed most to the team’s success: P3 is a +1 player, P2 is a +3 player, and P1 is a +7 player. This is a simple example, but what I’ve done is parsed out each player’s contribution, controlling for the other players on the court. I’ve left minutes out of this but imagine that P1 and P3 play together a lot. This will make P3 look good even though P1 is doing most of the work. P3 is the David Lee of this example.[1. No offense to David Lee, who is clearly pretty talented in his own right, but not Curry/Iguodala talented.] http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/09/25/glossary-plus-minus-adjusted-plus-minus/
The pioneer of adjusted plus/minus is economics professor Dan Rosenbaum. He has been a consultant for the Cavaliers for 10+ years.
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What cruel god would take Ethan Sherwood Strauss from us but keep Brian Windhorst?
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Probably because Windhorst is so far up Lebron's ass that it will take too much money to take him out.
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On April 27 2017 04:11 andrewlt wrote: Probably because Windhorst is so far up Lebron's ass that it will take too much money to take him out. All of ESPN is up LBJs butt. There is probably a 30 for 30 coming out about how good of a father he is.
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no wonder Dan Shulman came back to Toronto.. LOL. Dan's mama didn't raise no fools.
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man, Corey Joseph is useless.
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On April 28 2017 08:54 JimmyJRaynor wrote: man, Corey Joseph is useless. hahaha, might've just saved your asses
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he was the worst player on the Raptors tonight.
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TP finally showing up. Good move by the spurs to crash the offensive boards for once, grizz fast break really isnt that scary
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The Raptors starters had 9 assists.
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Tony tho
The sleeper MVP has awoken
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Billy Crystal not knowing how to cast a fishing pole is one of the most bizarre things I have seen on TV.
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RAPM is great because it measures the impact a player is having on the game. It's not a ranking of who the best players are but who's having the best impact given their role n the team.
Superstar players will come out well in any statistical measurement but RAPM is useful for finding guys who contribute to wins in ways that traditional stat keeping cannot measure.
You may laugh at Cody Zeller but consider the Hornets were 33-29 in games where he played compared to only 3-17 in games that he missed. He was very effective for them in the role he played.
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On April 28 2017 16:28 cLutZ wrote: Billy Crystal not knowing how to cast a fishing pole is one of the most bizarre things I have seen on TV.
He grew up in NYC; what do you expect? He played college baseball so we can give him a pass on physical abilities.
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they cancelled the program just before he arrived. College baseball back then was extra horrible. 95%+ of players came through MLB's minor league system in the 60s. so umm, ya.
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I feel like you think my burden of proof is high or something, when it's really as low as it could fucking be. I'd rather not spend any time whatsoever debating the merits of Billy Crystal's baseball abilities, if that's ok with you.
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On April 29 2017 07:05 Jerubaal wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2017 16:28 cLutZ wrote: Billy Crystal not knowing how to cast a fishing pole is one of the most bizarre things I have seen on TV. He grew up in NYC; what do you expect? He played college baseball so we can give him a pass on physical abilities. I was just astounded for 2 reasons:
1. In Chicago, everyone can fish. 2. All old people I know, regardless of location, fish.
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