well played
China will own the U.S by 2030 - Page 23
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Easy772
374 Posts
well played | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4254 Posts
On November 02 2010 10:33 domovoi wrote: This is true. I wish American egos weren't so sensitive about being #1. The simple fact is that China and India are going to become bigger economies within the next century because of the sheer demographic differences. There is nothing the US can or should do about it. That is only if you think Chinas growth is sustainable. Imagine if everyone over the age of 18 in China owned a motor car , that is 1 billion cars. Imagine the traffic and pollution , especially considering most of the traffic would be centred on the coastal regions. If Chinas wages move upwards too much then the mega corps will just shift manufacturing production to even cheaper regions like Africa. | ||
Dogsi
Indonesia298 Posts
On November 02 2010 19:50 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: That is only if you think Chinas growth is sustainable. Imagine if everyone over the age of 18 in China owned a motor car , that is 1 billion cars. Imagine the traffic and pollution , especially considering most of the traffic would be centred on the coastal regions. If Chinas wages move upwards too much then the mega corps will just shift manufacturing production to even cheaper regions like Africa. They don't need to equal American income per capita. Even if China had 1/4 our per capita income (ie, on par with south America), it would still be larger than our economy. Currently, they are a poor nation (for instance, Thailand earns more per capita) with 1/15th (or so) of our per capita income but are over 1/3 our GDP. One thing I wonder is how long they will be the worlds largest economy. America has far more resources, arable land, coast line, ect. Geographicall, America can support a larger population. Americas population is also continuing to increase at a fairly high rate while China is going the route of Germany and Japan. It's all speculation though and none of it really matters. | ||
jello_biafra
United Kingdom6631 Posts
On November 02 2010 19:50 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: That is only if you think Chinas growth is sustainable. Imagine if everyone over the age of 18 in China owned a motor car , that is 1 billion cars. Imagine the traffic and pollution , especially considering most of the traffic would be centred on the coastal regions. If Chinas wages move upwards too much then the mega corps will just shift manufacturing production to even cheaper regions like Africa. Cheap labour is overrated though, Japan and Germany export nearly as much as China, make much higher quality products, pay their workers a shitload more and get it all done with a fraction of China's population. There are various projections that say that by 2050 China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil will be the world's biggest economies but I highly doubt that any of those countries can maintain their growth rate and become #1. | ||
KwarK
United States40777 Posts
On November 02 2010 21:24 jello_biafra wrote: Cheap labour is overrated though, Japan and Germany export nearly as much as China, make much higher quality products, pay their workers a shitload more and get it all done with a fraction of China's population. There are various projections that say that by 2050 China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil will be the world's biggest economies but I highly doubt that any of those countries can maintain their growth rate and become #1. Let Mexico into the United States and get bigger than China? | ||
jello_biafra
United Kingdom6631 Posts
On November 02 2010 21:45 KwarK wrote: Let Mexico into the United States and get bigger than China? Well if they formed some kind of North American Union (US, Canada, Mexico) it would be second only to the European Union. In my opinion the only legitimate threat to America's #1 spot is the EU uniting into a single country which will probably happen at some point. | ||
kuriz
Denmark141 Posts
It'll be interesting! | ||
Subversive
Australia2229 Posts
On November 01 2010 13:50 Baby_Seal wrote: Hey guys, it turns out that the translator for the original ad made a few mistakes. Here's the correct translation. + Show Spoiler + Unfortunately, the ad wasn't really mistranslated. It's too bad, because I think this version is far more accurate. Hehe nice. This is good catharsis for anyone feeling irritated by the original. | ||
CharlieMurphy
United States22895 Posts
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clementdudu
France819 Posts
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DTown
United States428 Posts
If you owe the bank $10,000, you have a problem. If you owe the bank $1,000,000,000,000, the bank has a problem. Now just replace the words "you" and "bank" with "the USA" and "China" respectively and you have a pretty good idea of what is going on. If you ask me, China is the one who should be scared shitless. They have made a very large investment in US Debt on the assumption that it was a sound investment, but in reality given USA's fiscal situation, most of this money will just be inflated away over the next 5 years. Hence why China is desperately scrambling to diversify their holdings into other currencies and/or real assets. Not to mention that unless China wants some serious domestic economic problems with their exporters (a huge portion of the Chinese economy), they cannot afford to allow their currency to appreciate too much. In order to prevent this from happenings when the rest of the world is printing money, they are going to have to buy a lot of foreign debt. Since the US is one of their biggest export markets, they are going to need to continue to buy US Debt. So everyone can just relax on these scaremongering issues. It's more complicated than that. | ||
Half
United States2554 Posts
On November 02 2010 06:03 Treemonkeys wrote: The tea party is a well designed propaganda method of control, not a joke. right, a joke. | ||
fearus
China2164 Posts
On November 02 2010 23:00 DTown wrote: So what if the Chinese own a trillion dollars of US Debt (source)? There is a great saying that I believe fits this situation perfectly. Now just replace the words "you" and "bank" with "the USA" and "China" respectively and you have a pretty good idea of what is going on. If you ask me, China is the one who should be scared shitless. They have made a very large investment in US Debt on the assumption that it was a sound investment, but in reality given USA's fiscal situation, most of this money will just be inflated away over the next 5 years. Hence why China is desperately scrambling to diversify their holdings into other currencies and/or real assets. Not to mention that unless China wants some serious domestic economic problems with their exporters (a huge portion of the Chinese economy), they cannot afford to allow their currency to appreciate too much. In order to prevent this from happenings when the rest of the world is printing money, they are going to have to buy a lot of foreign debt. Since the US is one of their biggest export markets, they are going to need to continue to buy US Debt. So everyone can just relax on these scaremongering issues. It's more complicated than that. How are you going to inflate away 'most' of a trillion dollars in 5 years? | ||
DTown
United States428 Posts
On November 03 2010 01:19 fearus wrote: How are you going to inflate away 'most' of a trillion dollars in 5 years? With inflation that averages 13%/year perhaps? It is besides the point however. Whether it is 13% average inflation over 5 years or 7% average inflation over 10 years, for all intents and purposes that does not matter. The point is there will be significant inflation eating away the value of their debt securities. That said, however, given the unprecedented money printing and the overall experiment of the great reflation, I don't think people should rule out the possibility of hyperinflation either. In this scenario, it could easily be done in 5 years. | ||
domovoi
United States1478 Posts
On November 02 2010 19:50 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: That is only if you think Chinas growth is sustainable. Imagine if everyone over the age of 18 in China owned a motor car , that is 1 billion cars. Imagine the traffic and pollution , especially considering most of the traffic would be centred on the coastal regions. If Chinas wages move upwards too much then the mega corps will just shift manufacturing production to even cheaper regions like Africa. Their growth is obviously not sustainable in perpetuity, because I have a hard time believing any developed country could ever get close to a sustained 8% annual GDP growth. But, and I think people often forget this, China is currently poorer than Mexico on a per capita basis. In fact, if China were as "rich" as Mexico, they would have like a $11-12 trillion GDP, compared to America's $14 trillion GDP. China's wages are already moving upwards, and some manufacturing has shifted to Vietnam and Africa. Which is fine, because China has the human capital (i.e. a well-educated populace) to move beyond manufacturing. China and India are simply way too large in population to not be in top eventually. They simply need to raise living standards to the world average, which is feasible with the right infrastructure. If Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong can do it, so can China and India. | ||
DTown
United States428 Posts
On November 03 2010 02:37 domovoi wrote: China and India are simply way too large in population to not be in top eventually. They simply need to raise living standards to the world average, which is feasible with the right infrastructure. If Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong can do it, so can China and India. I wouldn't be so sure about that. While your argument is certainly logical and feasible, the big difference is Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and even Hong Kong are all capitalism-based societies. The pure inefficiency of capital allocation that goes hand-in-hand with communism will be a tough headwind for mainland China to overcome, even if they manage to not implode upon themselves. | ||
broz0rs
United States2294 Posts
On November 02 2010 15:51 apmspam wrote: why be suprised? there is all sorts of pro homosexual, anti-traditionalist propaganda all over the television every day. seeing as how our 12 trillion debt is owed to the federal reserve and not china, i would generally disagree with this add but... i dont see any reason for alarm It's because those videos attempt to bring an understanding of issues that have strong prejudices. This video is the opposite of that and takes an issue (rapid growth of other countries) and is clearly meant to instill anger and fear to those who have already or will be affected by overseas job loss. | ||
Xtar
79 Posts
As for China getting the standards of living as they have in the west, why will it be the Chinese that can't get cars/meat/oil and not the people in the west? Both in the west and in China the gap between the rich and the poor is growing. China has already millions of people that are richer than the average person in the west. It will be the poor people in the west that now can eat steaks, drive a car, take an airplane holiday that will have to give this up so that the rich Chinese can do the same. But China has a huge problem ahead of them. Someone asked how Chinese growth can be sustainable. They were and still are poor. They were a complete third world country not too low ago. If you have almost nothing you can grow a tremendous amount before you reach what is theoretically possible. The question you have to ask is how can growth in the west be sustainable. Our economy is based on everlasting growth. China won't run into this problem any time soon. But China has huge human rights issues that right now aren't important but will explode in 3 decades or so. Especially if this huge difference in income remains. Poor people will start wars about inequality even though they won't because of human rights. China is right to be worry about not fragmenting. They try to prevent this by being even more oppressive. But it will fail. It may just take 50 more years or so. | ||
domovoi
United States1478 Posts
On November 03 2010 02:41 DTown wrote: I wouldn't be so sure about that. While your argument is certainly logical and feasible, the big difference is Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and even Hong Kong are all capitalism-based societies. The pure inefficiency of capital allocation that goes hand-in-hand with communism will be a tough headwind for mainland China to overcome, even if they manage to not implode upon themselves. China is more capitalist than communist these days. As long as its future leaders are as pragmatic as Hu Jintao and Deng Xiaoping, they'll see the light eventually, because they understand the best way to remain in power is to ensure your populace is rich. Also, not quite sure what you mean by "even Hong Kong," which is far more capitalist than Japan, Korea or Taiwan and any other Western country. | ||
Moody
United States750 Posts
On November 02 2010 08:31 shawster wrote: it's more stereotyping then racist imagine if the commercial was targeting the chinese audience and you were chinese but the speakers in the commercial were american and there was a poster of a mcdonalds and the speaker was a fat overweight guy. I think what you're trying to ask me is how would I feel if I were a Chinese American and the ad was talking about McDonald's taking over the world. ... ... ... ... I literally just stared at the screen for 5 minutes trying to conjure a response, laughed out loud, and wrote the preceding. I also received strange looks from co workers. | ||
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