NBA 2012/2013 - Page 11
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slyboogie
United States3423 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
Hou or Phx are better fits for what Harden wants now, so this is a win-win to me. | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
You already know my thoughts on Kevin Martin. | ||
slyboogie
United States3423 Posts
On October 29 2012 05:37 citi.zen wrote: OKC is still the best team in the west, maybe even better than before the trade. Lamb and Kmart can give them similar production to Harden, and less drama. This went beyond money - Harden wanted more playing time, shots, etc, but he was always going to be a third option on this team. Remember last year's finals. Hou or Phx are better fits for what Harden wants now, so this is a win-win to me. So you're saying of the Rockets offered this trade last year, Sam Presti would have cried, "Yes, please!!"? I have never seen a report that Harden demanded more shots. I'm sure he wanted more playing time...since every player in the NBA wants to play. This was Sam Presti being incredibly, painfully, shortsightedly diligent in his spending. He got his value but this team is not better. | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
Does anyone in their right mind think the Heat are a better team now? No, because replacing All-Star or Superstar level talents don't happen overnight. You could do the same thing with just about any contending team (Kobe with Lakers, Manu with SA) and you'd say the team screwed themselves. The worst part for OKC is going to be watching that bench line up struggle vs Denver and San Antonio. I really, really, really don't trust Kevin Martin AT ALL. | ||
MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Time will tell just how well the Sam Presti and the Oklahoma City Thunder did in Saturday’s deal that sent James Harden to Houston. Jeremy Lamb (a lottery pick, let’s not forget) could be a very good player down the road, and Presti has done relatively well with first-round picks. But one thing’s for sure: The Thunder are going to take a step back offensively in the near future. When Harden was on the floor last season, the Thunder offense was pretty unstoppable, scoring 112.2 points per 100 possessions. When Harden was on the bench, they scored just 99.3. That difference of 13.0 was the fourth highest among 335 players who logged at least 500 minutes for a particular team last year. Biggest difference, team offensive efficiency, on and off court Player MIN On-court OffRtg Off-court OffRtg Diff. Blake Griffin 2,392 109.2 93.4 15.8 Chris Paul 2,180 109.6 95.6 14.1 Ryan Anderson 1,964 107.5 94.1 13.3 James Harden 1,946 112.2 99.3 13.0 Manu Ginobili 792 118.0 105.3 12.7 OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions Guards don’t score much more efficiently than Harden, who ranked fourth in the league in true shooting percentage. He got to the basket and to the line much more than Martin did last year. Scoring profile, 2011-12, Harden vs. Martin Player FG% 3PT% eFG% TS% FTA Rate %FGAR Harden 49.1% 39.0% 58.2% 66.0% .587 37.8% Martin 41.3% 34.7% 48.6% 55.4% .333 14.2% eFG% = (FGM + (0.5*3PM)) / FGA TS% = Points / (2*(FGA + (0.44*FTA))) FTA Rate = FTA/FGA %FGAR = Percentage of total shots from the restricted area But maybe the key question is whether the Thunder are getting last year’s Martin or the more efficient scorer he was earlier in his career. His career free throw rate is actually higher than Harden’s. Scoring profile, career, Harden vs. Martin Player FG% 3PT% eFG% TS% FTA Rate %FGAR James Harden 44.4% 37.0% 52.9% 60.5% .503 34.7% Kevin Martin 44.3% 37.7% 50.5% 59.5% .528 24.4% Except for how much Harden gets to the basket, their career numbers are pretty close. But Harden is also more of a playmaker, assisting on 15.3 percent of his teammates field goals while he’s been on the floor over the course of his career, compared to 11.1 percent for Martin. Martin should improve from last year with the move to OKC, but Harden is only 23 with potential to get even better. And it’s yet to be seen whether Martin can carry the Thunder second unit like Harden did. Harden played about 7 1/2 minutes per game with neither Kevin Durant nor Russell Westbrook on the floor with him. And he still managed to keep the offense humming and keep the scoreboard moving in the right direction in those minutes. Thunder efficiency with Harden on the floor, 2011-12 On floor MIN Pace OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg +/- Harden + Durant + Westbrook 1,165 96.5 114.4 104.5 +9.9 +258 Harden + Durant, no Westbrook 253 95.7 109.6 98.8 +10.8 +38 Harden + Westbrook, no Durant 64 98.6 103.7 84.5 +19.2 +28 Harden, no Durant or Westbrook 464 89.8 109.1 101.9 +7.3 +43 Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions We’ll see whether Scott Brooks trusts Martin with his second unit, or if he looks to stagger Durant’s and Westbrook’s minutes more than he has in the past. In total last season, Durant played just 38 minutes last season with neither Harden nor Westbrook on the floor, and Westbrook played just 13 minutes with neither Durant nor Harden. http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2012/10/28/thunder-o-will-suffer-without-harden/?ls=iref:nbahpt13a I still think it was a savvy move by OKC mgmt though :p Good moves by everyone really, including Harden. For HOU it does depend on following moves in a way. | ||
wei2coolman
United States60033 Posts
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
He's a good player, they'll miss him, but they will find other ways to score. | ||
DystopiaX
United States16236 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
But Harden should make sacrifices while the billionaire owners get to cut costs and cry poverty. | ||
a176
Canada6688 Posts
On October 29 2012 06:04 wei2coolman wrote: Trade was bad for OKC, but it was a "fair" trade, they got a lot for Harden, but definitely made their team weaker. Seems contradictory, but the trade was "good" in the sense that OKC maximized what they got for Harden, but bad in the sense that it made their team weaker. ?? kevin martin, jeremy lamb, first rounders and second rounders for harden ... i think OKC got the better end of the deal here | ||
Jerubaal
United States7676 Posts
So I'm supposed to be smart and savvy and build a lean mean team, but once I get them I'm supposed to overpay to keep it together? Gimme a break. | ||
wei2coolman
United States60033 Posts
On October 29 2012 07:09 Jerubaal wrote: The working class hero spiel was pretty predictable. So I'm supposed to be smart and savvy and build a lean mean team, but once I get them I'm supposed to overpay to keep it together? Gimme a break. Gotta pay to win. | ||
MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
I also read the Finals game 1 pouting-over-victory stuff somewhere yesterday too like some peeps said on here...but idk I mean I don't think that is that bad even. | ||
Jerubaal
United States7676 Posts
There is abundant evidence to the contrary. Of the top 10 salaried teams this year I give 2 any chance to win the championship. | ||
RowdierBob
Australia12660 Posts
I don't know the guy or pretend to know what he wants out of his career but to baulk at resigning over $6 million seems pretty odd to me. This indicates it was definitely more than just about the money. I guess he didn't feel like he was being utilised properly at OKC and wanted a greater role? I thought he already had a pretty important/vital role there but who knows? There seems to be a lot more to this we're not hearing about. It seems bizarre to me that OKC would trade such an important cog so ruthlessly without at least attempting to negotiate further. Speculations aside, I think Kevin Martin's getting too much hate. The guy scores 20ppg at good efficiency. Granted that's about all he can do (he can't defend and can't facilitate like Harden) but I think that's all he'll need to do. OKC's success will depend on Durant and Westbrook as it has the last two seasons. If OKC goes down in flames this year I doubt it will be because they did/didn't have Harden. | ||
Jibba
United States22883 Posts
On October 29 2012 04:57 Ace wrote:So when Durant and Westbrook are due for even bigger contracts in a few years are they going to trade them too? Fucking morons. The idea is they'll now be able to keep them. Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka/Perkins comes to $55 million~ and they're signed to 2015? The rest of the roster (minus Kmart) will get them within ~5m of the cap. Of course the OKC owners made bank while they were on their rookie contracts, but part of the reason Presti is/was considered a bright GM is because he wouldn't make a move to put them 10m over the cap (which is an extra 16m in luxury taxes.) It doesn't matter if the owners got theirs, Harden just isn't worth 30m to OKC. I agree with you that you only get so many chances to do this and you never know what'll happen by midseason or what trade opportunities become available, but at the same time this is not the best window for a championship run. The Heat are in their prime and the Lakers will be financially crippled in a couple years time. We have no idea if there were actually chemistry problems, but we do know that part of being a GM is considering what the franchise will be like today, and in three and five years time. I think you can make a case that the Thunder have a good chance of being better in 3-5 years than they would be with Harden, and maybe even that their window will be better in three years than it is now. The ideal situation involves Perkins not having a big contract and not being Bosh's bitch in the finals, and getting to keep Harden with some room left over, but that ship already sailed. Out of PJ3, Lamb and the three draft picks, I kind of expect at least one gem from that. | ||
RowdierBob
Australia12660 Posts
People are sceptical now but willing to give Presti the benefit of the doubt given his pedigree. But imagine the recriminations if they don't make it past the second round (or even the WCF?). I think anything less than a return to the Finals will be seen as regression for OKC and if K-mart and Lamb are flops there will be a significant outcry from fans and media. And then you have to look at whether or not it will have a destabilising effect on the team longer term? Does someone like Durant or Westbrook consider going to a team willing to do whatever it takes to win instead of operating in a, perhaps, perceived tight management environment? All utterly wild speculation but, as others have said, it's a pretty big deal to trade one of your best and most marketable assets when you don't absolutely have to. I have faith in Presti but this is a huge gamble he's taking. | ||
slyboogie
United States3423 Posts
On October 29 2012 09:40 RowdierBob wrote: I really don't think Harden thought this would happen the way it did. You can't fault him for taking more money, but I think he's really missed out on an opportunity to do something special with OKC. I don't know the guy or pretend to know what he wants out of his career but to baulk at resigning over $6 million seems pretty odd to me. This indicates it was definitely more than just about the money. I guess he didn't feel like he was being utilised properly at OKC and wanted a greater role? I thought he already had a pretty important/vital role there but who knows? There seems to be a lot more to this we're not hearing about. It seems bizarre to me that OKC would trade such an important cog so ruthlessly without at least attempting to negotiate further. I think the behind the scene is Sam Presti buying into his own "legend," thinking he's some GM savant. Unfortunately, he's merely a good GM, not some master. He gets approximately 0 credit for Kevin Durant. He fell into his lap after Pritchard took Oden. Everyone would make that pick. Lets all praise Danny Ferry for taking Lebron James! Great job bud! He totally screwed up the Westbrook pick with Kevin Love on the board. A lot of guys passed on Love and I love Westbrook, but for all the credit Presti gets for building a team, everyone forgets he left the '84 Celtics on the table of history. Harden and Ibaka remain his finest moves. Which is why he's good. But he's largely just lucky. I guess, if you really admire his clever little Collison style contracts and Daequan Cook signings then whateves. | ||
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