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NBA PLAYOFFS 2017
Will finalize once the matchups are set, so far:
WEST: 1GSW vs. 8POR 2SAS vs. 7MEM 3HOU vs. 6OKC 4LAC vs. 5UTA
EAST: 1CLE 2BOS 3TOR 4WAS
5-8 is a scramble among ATL, MIL, IND, MIA, and CHI
Fun poll. Round 1 has HOU vs. OKC, Harden vs. Westbrook
Poll: Who wins MVP?Westbrook (20) 59% Harden (14) 41% 34 total votes Your vote: Who wins MVP? (Vote): Harden (Vote): Westbrook
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Shitty matchup for the Spurs.
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Lebron and Harden have both had more impressive statistical seasons if you look into the numbers and forget that averaging 10+ is somehow infinitely better than 9 or 8. Westbrook's inefficient (176th in TS%) and will be the all time leader in TO's + FG misses. Also the 10+ boards per game, are a result of his severely under-appreciated bigs and his own appalling contest rate. 30 pts 10 assists is still great, don't get me wrong, but the OTT hype narrative is beyond irritating. The MVP should not get clinched by some miracle 3 from a 32% shooter. He's not even clutch, he's just got the kobe effect of shooting a ton in clutch situations and some going in. His usage is so high he's made his teammates look out of rhythm and worse. People forget that Adams, Kanter, Oladipo and Roberson were seen as solid enough before this season, especially defensively, which is a severely underrated part of why they got the record they have. Preseason predictions had Houston out of the playoffs and OKC around 7th in the West.
I just don't get how Harden leading a bunch of written off roleplayers to become a 3rd overall seed is somehow not as compelling a narrative as a 10th seed averaging 2 or so more uncontested rebounds. If someone can explain that to me I'm all ears.
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I don't see how you can trash Westbrook's season when he is 1,2 with Harden in many stats, both the good and the bad (by the way Harden is beating Westbrook by 26 TOs when last I checked.). You can't even say he's inefficient. Yes, he's below Harden in both TS% and eFG%, but he's only about 1% lower in FG%, which is astounding considering how bad he is at 3 pointers. On top of this, Harden is nowhere to be found in the rebound or defensive rankings.
The only argument you could make is that his fellow players have not reached their peak efficiency through lack of touches.
Lebron has had a very efficient scoring year, but he just hasn't shot the ball very much.
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Kawhi is my MVP for what it's worth. I think both ends of the floor matter.
But on more pressing subjects, while I have bet against them with Xeris, I think the Raps are sneaky threats to come out the East. The key to beating a LeBron team is to have a guy that can effectively guard him one on one (think Shawn Marion or Kawhi). I think the Raps now have that guy in Tucker. LeBron always breaks teams down with his drive and kick game. If Tucker can stay in front of Lebron and force Kyrie and Love to make plays for the Cavs it's Toronto's best shot of pulling off the upset.
I think it will be Wiz vs Cavs/Raps in ECF.
Out West it's hard to not see the Warriors advance. They were the best team in the league without KD. That's pretty nuts. Mayyyybe there are some issue reintegrating him into the team (cutting into Curry's USG) but I doubt it.
The Spurs will be solid but have trouble scoring when it matters like last year. Houston just isn't good enough defensively (but wouldn't be surprised to see them beat the Spurs in round 2).
Take this hot take for what it's worth but I think the Clips are the West's second best team. Paul has been sneaky good this year (but I still hate him) and this may be the last dance for that team. I'm not writing them off in a series vs GSW.
If the Cavs can find their mojo I think they're the the team with the best chance of beating the Warriors. I suspect, boringly, that'll be the finals again and I'd give the Warriors a slight edge. Playoff LeBron is a sight to behold.
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On April 13 2017 11:56 RowdierBob wrote: Kawhi is my MVP for what it's worth. I think both ends of the floor matter.
But on more pressing subjects, while I have bet against them with Xeris, I think the Raps are sneaky threats to come out the East. The key to beating a LeBron team is to have a guy that can effectively guard him one on one (think Shawn Marion or Kawhi). I think the Raps now have that guy in Tucker. LeBron always breaks teams down with his drive and kick game. If Tucker can stay in front of Lebron and force Kyrie and Love to make plays for the Cavs it's Toronto's best shot of pulling off the upset.
I think it will be Wiz vs Cavs/Raps in ECF.
Out West it's hard to not see the Warriors advance. They were the best team in the league without KD. That's pretty nuts. Mayyyybe there are some issue reintegrating him into the team (cutting into Curry's USG) but I doubt it.
The Spurs will be solid but have trouble scoring when it matters like last year. Houston just isn't good enough defensively (but wouldn't be surprised to see them beat the Spurs in round 2).
Take this hot take for what it's worth but I think the Clips are the West's second best team. Paul has been sneaky good this year (but I still hate him) and this may be the last dance for that team. I'm not writing them off in a series vs GSW.
If the Cavs can find their mojo I think they're the the team with the best chance of beating the Warriors. I suspect, boringly, that'll be the finals again and I'd give the Warriors a slight edge. Playoff LeBron is a sight to behold.
I like how you bet me $100 and you're pretty much predicting that what I said would happen would happen :D!!!!!!
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Also as a note, I'm really happy with how the playoff matchups turned out across the board, particularly in the East.
- Playoff Rondo & Jimmy Butler vs the Celtics: Jimmy gets to prove to Boston why they should have traded for him in the ultimate F-You series, and Rondo can turn back the clock against his old team. Also this takes us back to that INSANE 2009 first round series they played. If there was ever going to be a 1-8 seed upset, I'm putting my money on this series. Anyone??
- Paul George vs LeBron again: I think Indiana is better than they appear on paper, and the Cavs are weak, but they'll still take this. Hoping for an epic series though because I think PG is gonna turn it up as he always does in the playoffs.
- Wizards - Hawks rematch: The Wiz think they should have won the series back in 2015, when John Wall missed 3 games with a broken hand... this should be a pretty fun rematch, especially because the Hawks finished the season playing pretty well
- Raps Bucks: Should be fun to see Giannis in the playoffs
Out West...
Spurs - Griz: Always end up having pretty nice playoff series
Thunder - Rockets: 2 top MVP candidates duking it out to prove who should win the award, cuz one of them will certainly be snubbed
Clips - Jazz: Not much backstory here, but I think it's a super evenly matched series.
I'm SO HYPED
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Paul George is just on fire right now. Dude has been shooting lights out for the last 20 games or so. 51% shooting the last 20, with it rising each 5 games. He shot 57% in the last 5 games, which they had to win to get into the playoffs. All while scoring 30 a game and hitting 44% from three. He's stepped it up crashing the boards, has been finding the open man.
He's got me all giddy and I can't watch him to go head to head vs LeBron. Only guy in the East that will challenge LeBron on his own.
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On April 14 2017 03:07 jmbthirteen wrote: Paul George is just on fire right now. Dude has been shooting lights out for the last 20 games or so. 51% shooting the last 20, with it rising each 5 games. He shot 57% in the last 5 games, which they had to win to get into the playoffs. All while scoring 30 a game and hitting 44% from three. He's stepped it up crashing the boards, has been finding the open man.
He's got me all giddy and I can't watch him to go head to head vs LeBron. Only guy in the East that will challenge LeBron on his own.
No love for Butler?
I went to the IND-CLE game that went to double OT and LBJ and PG both went for 40+ shooting lights out. Going to be a great series.
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Cavs will wreck them 4-0.
As for the others:
Bos 4-2 Bulls Raps 4-1 Bucks Wiz 4-1 Hawks
GSW 4-0 Blazers Spurs 4-1 Grizz Rox 4-2 OKC Clips 4-1 Jazz
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On April 14 2017 06:44 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2017 03:07 jmbthirteen wrote: Paul George is just on fire right now. Dude has been shooting lights out for the last 20 games or so. 51% shooting the last 20, with it rising each 5 games. He shot 57% in the last 5 games, which they had to win to get into the playoffs. All while scoring 30 a game and hitting 44% from three. He's stepped it up crashing the boards, has been finding the open man.
He's got me all giddy and I can't watch him to go head to head vs LeBron. Only guy in the East that will challenge LeBron on his own. No love for Butler? I went to the IND-CLE game that went to double OT and LBJ and PG both went for 40+ shooting lights out. Going to be a great series. Butler is very close. I'll admit I'm bias as a Pacers fan. But I'm not sure he's good enough from outside. I think the shooting of PG vs the strength of Butler is more challenging to LeBron.
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My thoughts on MVP
I really don't see how you can give it to Kawhi. Harden and Westbrook have generated roughly 56 points a game off scoring + assists for their team. Kawhi is at 34 points. That's a HUGE gap. Kawhi has had a great year but Westbrook and Harden have had historic years. The most mind-blowing way I've heard someone phrase what these guys are accomplishing is in the following way: If Westbrook posted a 30-10-10 box score it would bring his averages down.
The argument against Westbrook is his efficiency and his team's ranking. I believe all the other 3 MVP candidates have a TS% of around 61-62. Westbrook is at 55. That's a pretty large gap too. He's taken 300-400 more shots than anyone else. He has missed more shots this season than LeBron James and Kevin Durant combined. Plus his team is a 6th seed, which has to be taken into consideration. Team records matter, Anthony Davis was ruled out as an MVP candidate 3 weeks into the season.
What's the argument against Harden? One of the best offensive seasons we have ever seen, Rockets outperforming their preseasion predictions, 3rd best record in the league, first player to have 2000 points scored and 2000 points produced off assists, etc. MVP should go to Harden.
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Id be interested to see a metric on how many point Kawhi saves with his D because WB and Hatden definitely give some of their offensive production back.
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I think this race, if anything, has highlighted how many ways you can analyze a player's impact on a team, and we have a long way to go to fully explore all of these stats.
On April 14 2017 11:09 BlackJack wrote:
What's the argument against Harden? One of the best offensive seasons we have ever seen, Rockets outperforming their preseasion predictions, 3rd best record in the league, first player to have 2000 points scored and 2000 points produced off assists, etc. MVP should go to Harden.
The argument would be that he really contributes nothing besides points and assists. Does anyone have an opinion of him when he doesn't have the ball? I've never seen him as an aggressive offensive player sans ball.
On April 14 2017 12:00 RowdierBob wrote: Id be interested to see a metric on how many point Kawhi saves with his D because WB and Hatden definitely give some of their offensive production back.
You think? Several metrics look on Westbrook's defense highly. Does he gamble too much?
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The argument against Harden is easy. The system and the coach.
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On April 14 2017 16:07 jmbthirteen wrote: The argument against Harden is easy. The system and the coach.
Steve Nash?
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On April 14 2017 16:07 jmbthirteen wrote: The argument against Harden is easy. The system and the coach. A lot of MVP winners were in great systems with top coaches... it comes with the seeding. Besides, Westbrook got a situation perfect for him to mass counting stats, and a coach that allowed him to shatter the all-time usage rate record. I'd love to see what more 'valuable' players would have put up with that kind of usage, but most teams prefer to get W's. It's also good basketball to keep the rest of the team involved beyond them boxing out and producing the necessary 10 assisted buckets.
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On April 14 2017 16:07 jmbthirteen wrote: The argument against Harden is easy. The system and the coach.
I can't say I'm super impressed with the manner in which he gets assists, but there's no denying that his offensive prowess is part of the reason they can get good looks. It's impressive, it's just not as impressive as it initially looks. That argument goes against Westbrook as well somewhat, albeit with shittier shooters.
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On April 14 2017 12:00 RowdierBob wrote: Id be interested to see a metric on how many point Kawhi saves with his D because WB and Hatden definitely give some of their offensive production back.
Oddly enough almost all of the metrics show that the Spurs have been better defensively when Kawhi is on the bench. A lot better. Obviously that's not the case but it's difficult for Kawhi supporters because there are no metrics that they can use to argue their point.
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